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Towards 9 Billion provides a vision for a sus-tainable and equitable future. We believe that some simple yet radical changes to the pur-pose and processes of modern international capitalism could produce innately sustainable outcomes.

The human population is set to grow to more than 9 billion people by 2050. What sort of world do we want them to arrive into? One of scarce resources and extreme competition for the basic elements of survival, or one in which they are able to build stable and meaningful lives for themselves and their children?

Rather than seeing a growing population as a fundamental threat, might we rather see it as a global opportunity of epic proportions?

Writer: Joss Tantram is a founding partner at Terrafiniti LLP, a pioneering sustainability and systems consultancy. Terrafiniti’s Towards 9 Billion thought leadership and R&D initiative develops big, playful and hopeful ideas for a sustainable future.

Towards 9 Billion

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Images (from top left to bottom right):

(1) VIII Gay Pride in São Paulo, Brazil, 2004. [Nearly 2 million people in 2004; 4 million in 2011.] Source: Rose Brasil/ABr.

(2) Maha Kumbh Mela, 2013. [Est. 12 million people]. Source: Roshan Raj /Flickr.

(3) Large crowd after a Muse concert, Parc des Princes, Paris, 2007. [± 60,000 people]. Source: James Cridland /Flickr.

(4) Mexico City, 2011. [According to the most recent definition agreed upon by the federal and state governments, the Greater Mexico City population in the 2010 is 20.1 million people]. Source: Eeliuth/Flickr.

(5) Metro station during rush hour, Shanghai, China, 2005. [Shanghai is the largest most populous city in the world with 23,7 million people in 2012]. Source: Marc van der Chijs/Flickr.

(6) Glastonbury Festival, Somerset, England, 2003. [The largest greenfield festival in the world, now attended by around 175,000 people]. Source: Andy Wright/Flickr.

(7) Tokyo, 2012. [The greater Tokyo metropolitan area, which spreads over 3 prefectures, has an estimated population close to 35 million. That means the greater Tokyo area is home to 25% of Japan's population, and it's the most populous metropolitan area in the world]. Source: Nacho/Flickr.

(8) Costco on a Saturday, 2011. [Costco Wholesale Corporation is the second largest retailer in the United States with a net income of US$1.709 billion and employing 174,000 people (2012)]. Source: Ines Hegedus-Garcia/Flickr.

(9) Al-Haram Mosque at the start of Hajj, Mecca, Saudi Arabia, 2008. [The total number of pilgrims to the Hajj in 2012 was estimated at 3 million according to Saudi Foreign Embassy]. Source: Al Jazeera/Flickr.

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Today even the world’s largest companies only supply goods and services to a pro-portion of the planet’s population. Increas-ing the total number of economically active people would be in the interests of busi-nesses, citizens and society as a whole – driving greater productivity, long-term value creation and providing an in-built incentive for social and market stability.

Perhaps the most significant challenge to achieving this future lies in the ability of the market to act in a strategic and coordinated manner and to value activities and behavior which pay off over the long-term. Meeting this challenge would require an evolution of some of the fundamental mechanisms of market economics and capitalism so that sustainable decisions and behaviors can be innately valued and prioritized rather than considered as an afterthought.

A Larger Piece of a Larger Pie?

Left (top+bottom): Darfuri refugees in Eastern Chad. Farchana Camp (22,887

refugees, UNHCR figures, 30 September 2011). The camp is located 56 km from the

Sudanese border, and was opened in January 2004. A young refugee contemplates the

southern part of Farchana's Camp from a hill that cut the refugee's site in two.]

Source: European Commission DG ECHO/Flickr.

Right (top): Zaatari refugee camp, August 2013, Jordan. [Zaatari refugee camp

was first opened on July 28, 2012 to host Syrians fleeing the violence in the ongoing

Syrian civil war that erupted in 2011. On July 4, 2013, the camp population was

estimated at 144,000 refugees, making it Jordan's fourth largest city.]

Source: Foreign and Commonwealth Office/Flickr.

Right (bottom): View of the Zaatari camp for Syrian refugees as seen on July 18, 2013,

from a helicopter carrying U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and Jordanian Foreign

Minister Nasser Judeh.Source: U.S. Department of State/Public Domain.

We Need New Concepts of Economic and Social SuccessOur current economic models, with con-ceptual roots dating back centuries, were not designed to deal with the universal challenges presented by resource scarcity, population growth, globalization and the decline of natural systems.

Dominant global approaches to assessing and pricing what is valuable are no lon-ger fit for purpose. The scale of economic externalities which have arisen represent an existential threat to the continuing function

of our economic system, our social stability and the health of our planetary home.

In light of such threats, current industrial pro-cesses are increasingly recognized as unfit for meeting the demands of the majority of the Earth’s current 7 billion people, let alone the expected rise in population numbers.

If we are to sustain and thrive together as a species we need to imagine and deliver new ways of meeting our needs and desires.

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The route to a sustainable future lies in reco-gnizing and valuing the dimensions of inter-dependence we have with each other and with the natural world:

Ecological interdependence – the natural environment is the foundation of human existence, the bedrock of social stability and the basis of all financial value. Humans are fundamentally dependent upon the Earth as our only home for now.

Financial interdependence – our markets are massively complex and interdependent.

Resource and logistics systems are global and the rise and fall of market actors can mean success, failure, feast or famine across the world. The narrow financial suc-cess of one party must not continue to come at the common expense of many.

Social interdependence – nothing happens in our modern world without the involve-ment of others. We need to recognize and re-balan ce this interdependence so that our quality of life is not bought at the expense of others and is not at risk if those we depend upon decide to withdraw their subsidy.

Valuing Inter dependence

The vision is simple. To build by 2050:

A world of 9 billion capable citizens living in healthy, thriving ecosystems.

Such a world would represent a market for business unparalleled through human history. It would align the interests of indi-viduals, societies and businesses organi-cally, through “common-self-interest”.

Two key changes....

A. Subscribe to a Common Intent

Markets lack common strategic intent beyond the generation of short-term profit. Adam Smith’s “Invisible Hand” is more a post-hoc rationalization of the sum of a multitude of individually-motivated market actions than any strategy.

This lack of common intent makes the delivery of strategic outcomes difficult and the likelihood of systemic risk and unin-tended consequences more likely.

Towards 9 Billion is designed to address this issue by introducing a clear and eco-nomically meaningful purpose to market and business activity; the achievement of a vastly larger and more sustainable market.

Over the next 40 years to 2050, markets should seek to deliver:

• A global human population of 9 billion capable citizens.

• Healthy and thriving ecosystems.

B. “Hack the Price Function” – Economic Price Should Equal Sustainable Value

Economic behavior flows principally from the price function, the ability to generate a price for a good or service which allows it to be bought, sold and traded.

Towards 9 Billion The Vision

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"...reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled."

– Richard P. Feynman

Prioritizing the vision for a world of 9 billion capable citizens would be a major step towards the integration of environmental and social value with economic opportunity and cost. It would provide a significant drive towards a sustainable world and inherently deliver reduc-tions in systemic risk and market failure.

In addition, the motivation for businesses would move towards a positive sum (win-win) view. It would become an economic benefit to design industrial production activities around resources which are more likely to have lon-gevity of supply and which enhance, work alongside, utilize or borrow from naturally productive processes and capacity.

In the social dimension, valuing and bal-ancing interdependence would result in increasing global equity and help ensure a more even spread of economic develop-ment and increased quality of life.

Companies and markets would, as a natural aspect of market capitalism:

• consider the longevity and safety of sup-ply of the resources they depend upon;

• act to value and enhance the quality and diversity of the natural capital upon which human life depends, and:

• prioritize mutual equity in relationships with suppliers, customers and other stakeholders.

It makes sense to connect the capability of our social, economic and industrial models to the viability of our home planet.

To quote Arthur C. Clarke: “Over suffi-ciently large periods of time, private inter-est should be indistinguishable from the common interest”.

Towards 9 Billion Bridging Price and Value

What is a healthy, thriving ecosystem?Ecosystems provide raw materi-als and ‘services’ (such as food production and clean water) vital to our existence. Healthy ecosys-tems are able to maintain their structure and provide these func-tions over time while bearing the demands of sustainable harvest-ing and other stresses.

What is a capable citizen ? Capable citizens are those who have the opportunities and abilities to make sovereign social, eco-nomic and personal choices, for themselves and their families. They have access to advanced educa-tion, are equitably rewarded for the use of their lives in other people’s employ and are able to raise chil-dren without fearing for their future. Capable of contributing to and accessing commercial and public services, they make conscious and informed decisions about the goods and services they buy.

Three principles for putting sus-tainable value at the heart of eco-nomic price:

Subtle but radical changes in the gen-eration of price would allow ecological and social sustainability to become a natural outcome of economic behavior. Price should not simply be based upon supply and demand but also upon:

• Abundance rather than scarcity – scarce things are only of marginal utility in a world of 9 billion capable citizens – either natural (biologically-based) or managed (through closed loop steward-

The present price function fails to reflect, value and therefore sustain the funda-mental ecological and social interdepen-dencies that our way of life is built upon. It reduces the physical reality and mind boggling complexity of ecological systems to the simplistic binary metrics of supply and demand, profit and loss. This fails to adequately reflect or consider long-term human or ecological value and represents an existential threat to the continuation of our current model of capitalism.

ship) abundance is inherently more valu-able in this context.

• Natural vitality – making use of the plan-et’s natural rejuvenative and productive abilities, learning from and utilizing natu-ral production techniques as the basis for our technological and industrial models.

• Balancing interdependence – nothing happens in our modern world without the social and economic involvement of others. We need to recognize and bal-ance these dependencies to maximize economic and human potential and remove imbalances and subsidies.