a new agenda for security and strategy
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A New Agenda for Security and Strategy. CH 16 Strategy in The Contemporary World. Introduction. High Politics – War, Peace, Nuclear Deterrence and Crisis Control, Arms Control, and Alliance Politics. Introduction. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
A New Agenda for Security and Strategy
CH 16
Strategy in The Contemporary World
Introduction
• High Politics – War, Peace, Nuclear Deterrence and Crisis Control, Arms Control, and Alliance Politics
Introduction
• Low Politics- The Environment, The management of Scarce Resources, and Efforts to Control Population Issues
Which is More Important?
• During the Cold War high politics dominated the National Security Agenda!Low politics not considered a threat to national security!
• Despite Major World Issues – Nuclear Fallout -> Partial Ban Treaty 1963– Oil Shocks of the 1970’s -> Conservation is
important!
1980’s Brought Change
• Why Did This Happen?
– Realist suggest with the evaporation of the major concerns with the Cold War, Lesser Issues “appear” to become more important
– Neo-Institutionalist would argue the growth of Structures like IGO’s and INGO’s help push global issues like deforestation, AIDS, and the ozone depletion onto security agenda’s
– Can any other theories be used to explain this change?
The 21st Century
• Saw a return of high politics consuming the majority of the security agenda.
• This was due to terrorist attacks in New York, London, Madrid, and Bali.
• Some once considered low politics remained on the Security Agenda, Such as Globalization
The Need for a Conceptual Framework
• Why should low politics be considered a threat to national security?– The International Peace Research Institution have
demonstrated a link between resource scarcity and violence
– Rapid population growth or depopulation growth can create resource dilemmas.
– Damage to the environment can kill!• Ex: The destruction to the Ozone layer can cause
cancer, blindness, and even death.
The Use of Military for Low PoliticsCreates Big Problems
• Already used in cases of natural disasters, but labeling as security issues would come with cost.
• Resources are diverted from preparing for war to humanitarian projects.
• The presence of military can create more problems then it helps.
• How can the military help with AID’s or reduce green house admissions?
Low Politics… That Make the Agenda!
Population Issues
• Most of the population growth will occur in the poorest countries– They are already strained to the limits for food,
housing , and education.• Most of the population growth elsewhere in the
world is taking place in urban areas.– Resulting in “Mega Cities”
• Most of the additional population will be young.– This could create an inability to provide basic
services to the populations
More Issues With Population
– Population decreases in the west will create difficulties in filling the armed forces
– Health care and pension plan demands in the aging population will make it difficult for industrialized nations to afford large defense budgets.
– In the west there is a rising aversion to causalities shaping national strategies• As birth rates decline people everywhere will be less
likely to see their only child sacrificed in a military adventure
Commons IssuesA Little of Something Never Hurt Anyone
• The Tragedy of The Commons• Ex: Salmon Fishing
• Deforestations, Water Depletion, and Carbon Dioxide Levels
• Tragedy of the Commons occurs because of international failure to protect to environment or its resources
• These issues can shape war strategy!– Ex: Concerns for disrupting a tight oil market has
slowed the response against the Iranian efforts to produce nuclear weapons
Direct Environmental Damage!
Disease
• The major concern is for a long overdue outbreak of a deadly strain of influenza
• Resistant Strains• Dormant Disease that
may arise due to deforestation.
The Seven Diseases That Remain a Major Concern
• (HIV/AIDS) – Pandemic proportions are like to spread into India, Russia, and China.• Tuberculosis *• Malaria*• Hepatitis B and C• Influenza *
– H5N1 (Avian Flu)
• Diarrhoeal Diseases (results of contaminated food and water)• Measles
Five Reasons for the Increase Threat of Infectious Diseases
• 1. Displaces refugees living in primitive conditions breed and spread diseases• 2. Unprotected sex and intravenous drug use• 3. Modern technology• 4. Land use practices–Destroying–Reforestation (Lyme Disease)
• 5. International Travel (2 million people a day)
Sensitivities Vs. Vulnerabilities(Avian Flu Vs. SARS)