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  • 8/8/2019 A New Age of Protectionism? The Economic Crisis and Transatlantic Trade Policy

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    A NEW AGE OF PROTECTIONISM?THE ECONOMIC CRISIS AND TRANSATLANTIC TRADE POLICY

    KATI SUOMINEN

    THE GERMAN MARSHALL FUND OF THE UNITED STATES

    PAPER SERIES

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    2009 Te German Marshall Fund o the United States. All rights reserved.

    No part o this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any orm or by any means without permission

    in writing rom the German Marshall Fund o the United States (GMF). Please direct inquiries to:

    Te German Marshall Fund o the United States

    1744 R Street, NW

    Washington, DC 20009

    1 202 683 2650

    F 1 202 265 1662

    E [email protected]

    Tis publication can be downloaded or ree at http://www.gmus.org/publications/index.cm. Limited print

    copies are also available. o request a copy, send an e-mail to [email protected].

    GMF Paper Series

    Te GMF Paper Series presents research on a variety o transatlantic topics by staf, ellows, and partners o the

    German Marshall Fund o the United States. Te views expressed here are those o the author and do not neces-

    sarily represent the view o GMF. Comments rom readers are welcome; reply to the mailing address above or by

    e-mail to [email protected].

    About GMF

    Te German Marshall Fund o the United States (GMF) is a non-partisan American public policy and grant-

    making institution dedicated to promoting greater cooperation and understanding between North America

    and Europe.

    GMF does this by supporting individuals and institutions working on transatlantic issues, by convening leaders

    to discuss the most pressing transatlantic themes, and by examining ways in which transatlantic cooperation canaddress a variety o global policy challenges. In addition, GMF supports a number o initiatives to strengthen

    democracies.

    Founded in 1972 through a gi rom Germany as a permanent memorial to Marshall Plan assistance, GMF

    maintains a strong presence on both sides o the Atlantic. In addition to its headquarters in Washington, DC,

    GMF has seven o ces in Europe: Berlin, Bratislava, Paris, Brussels, Belgrade, Ankara, and Bucharest.

    About Brussels Forum

    Brussels Forum is an annual high-level meeting o the most inuential American and European political, corpo-

    rate, and intellectual leaders to address pressing challenges currently acing both sides o the Atlantic. Partici-

    pants include heads o state, senior o cials rom the European Union institutions and the member states, U.S.Cabinet o cials, Congressional representatives, Parliamentarians, academics, and media. For more inormation,

    please visit www.brusselsorum.org.

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    A New Age of Protectionism?

    The economic crisis and transatlantic trade policy

    Brussels Forum Paper Series

    March 2009

    K S*

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    A New Age of Protectionism?

    The economic crisis and transatlantic trade policy3

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    The experience

    of the past is

    that isolationist

    sentiments

    and economic

    hard landings

    can decelerate

    liberalization,

    entice countries

    to backtrack on

    their trade policy

    commitments,

    and even result i

    outright worldwid

    protectionism,

    particularly if

    gripping the

    leading trade

    powers.

    Introduction

    1

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    The German Marshall Fund of the United States4

    W B A q , b b

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    Indeed,

    distortionary

    measures

    could give

    a license to

    countries tocut corners on

    open markets

    and retaliate

    against each

    others actions.

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    A New Age of Protectionism?

    The economic crisis and transatlantic trade policy5

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    A, 1 Bz,

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    (Tb 1 1b)

    F , U S E vv xv

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    (FTA) D

    b, U S

    FTA C 18 bq

    N A F T

    A (NAFTA) C Mx

    W bq 1

    FTA A, A,

    M E

    E FTA

    b T EU

    b -b,

    b FTA E E

    , x- ,

    S A, Mx, C I 7,

    B

    A S A N (ASEAN),

    I, K T EU

    E-M A A

    v M

    Percent

    0%

    10%

    15%

    5%

    20%

    25%

    30%

    35%

    1924

    1926

    1928

    1930

    1932

    1934

    1936

    1938

    1940

    1942

    1944

    1946

    1948

    1950

    1952

    1954

    1956

    1958

    1960

    1962

    1964

    1966

    1968

    1970

    1972

    1974

    1976

    1978

    1980

    1982

    1984

    1986

    1988

    1990

    1992

    1994

    1996

    1998

    2000

    U.S.

    EU

    Germany

    France

    Source: Clemens and Williamson (2004)

    Figure 1: Applied Tariffs France, Germany, EU, and the United States, 1924-2000

    Trade Policy Adrift

    2

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    The German Marshall Fund of the United States6

    Table 1a. Tariffs and Imports by Product Group in 2007, EU

    Bound duties MFN applied duties

    Product Groups AVG Duty-free Max Binding AVG Duty-free Ma

    % % %

    A 68 6 15 1 5 36 15

    D 668 37 1 64 15

    F, vb, 17 8 31 1 116 185 31

    C, 6 71 88 1 6 71 88

    C 43 63 116 1 18 17 116

    O, 56 48 113 1 6 431 113

    S 5 133 1 8 133

    Bv b 3 3 1 1 18 11

    C 1 1 1

    O 51 671 1 1 56 651 11

    F 11 17 6 1 16 141 6

    M 46 1 1 57 1

    P 5 5 1 3 411 5

    C 46 7 1 38 344 13W, 841 1 1 813 1

    Tx 65 34 1 1 66 1 1

    C 115 1 1 115 1

    L, 4 78 17 1 41 61 17

    N- 17 65 1 1 17 73 1

    E 4 315 14 1 6 83 14

    T q 41 157 1 41 17

    M, 5 5 14 1 5 4 14

    S: W T Oz

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    A New Age of Protectionism?

    The economic crisis and transatlantic trade policy7

    B U S EU vv b

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    T b , x, x q (TRQ) , v v , , ,

    x (S 4; Ev S 8)

    3 K (4) v , b GDP vE GDP b 4 6

    Liberal trade

    policies have

    generated

    immense benefit

    for the United

    States and

    Europe the

    United States ha

    gained no less

    than $1 trillion

    annually due

    to globalization

    in the postwar

    era and stands

    to gain another

    $500 billion per

    year from future

    liberalization.

    Imports

    Product Groups Share Duty-free

    % %

    A 4 15

    D 1

    F, vb, 16 114

    C, 7 84

    C 4 67

    O, 1 61

    S

    Bv b 6 153

    C 1

    O 5 683

    F 11 6

    M 174 78

    P 17 64

    C 6 65W, 31 3

    Tx 4 1

    C 48

    L, 5 16

    N- 131 676

    E 63 35

    T q 61

    M, 63 568

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    The German Marshall Fund of the United States8

    Table 1b. Tariffs and Imports by Product Group in 2007, United States

    Bound duties MFN applied duties

    Product Groups AVG Duty-free Max Binding AVG Duty-free Ma

    % % %

    A 6 317 6 1 7 31 6

    D 14 3 1 41 3 3

    F, vb, 47 43 13 1 51 15 13

    C, 34 533 64 1 3 535 64

    C 37 1 7 1 4 1 7

    O, 46 8 164 1 5 43 164

    S 175 1 131 1 1 131

    Bv b 174 8 35 1 156 73 35

    C 46 4 1 43 383

    O 1 671 7 1 13 57 7

    F 11 781 35 1 1 81 35

    M 17 6 38 1 16 641 38

    P 14 8 8 5 3 7

    C 371 7 1 8 46 7W, 4 16 14 1 5 8 14

    Tx 77 171 34 1 7 163 34

    C 114 34 3 1 117 8 3

    L, 46 387 56 1 3 417 56

    N- 1 663 1 1 1 66 1

    E 16 48 15 1 14 574 15

    T q 31 545 5 1 3 657 5

    M, 486 4 1 3 467 4

    S: W T Oz

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    A New Age of Protectionism?

    The economic crisis and transatlantic trade policy9

    Growing trade angst

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    v v Transatlantic Trends 8

    4 S x, L (8) Lv (8)

    Worries about

    jobs and wages

    have spread from

    manufacturing

    to service sector

    workers fearful o

    the offshoring of

    white-collar jobs

    in information

    technology and

    business service

    to countries

    like India. Blue-

    collar blues are

    now also white-

    collar worries.

    Imports

    Product Groups Shar Duty-free

    % %

    A 5 66

    D 1 13

    F, vb, 1 3

    C, 4 766

    C 5 35

    O, 78

    S 56

    Bv b 11 484

    C 53

    O 644

    F 6 87

    M 153 733

    P 14

    C 64W, 46 36

    Tx 1 181

    C 45 7

    L, 6 1

    N- 151 831

    E 6 63

    T q 146 556

    M, 6 68

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    The German Marshall Fund of the United States10

    , A 71

    6 64 7,

    C Mx 7 61

    E b ,

    75 v 6 7 k, b

    j F, A,

    v v jb,

    P, I, B, G,

    v

    A 7 P R C v

    W 5 A , v

    k 78

    O k v 31

    Rb v v ,

    I E, v

    b vb v EU

    b

    v , S

    85 G 78 B

    v 7,

    1 87 , v,

    5

    S, M-A 8 New York Times-

    CBS N , 58 A v

    ,

    6 16, 3 v

    5 W E b A, k I 8Uv M , 6 G I,5 B, 41 F k b b I , 7 U S, 64 C, 66 C, 68 I D, 18 v, b 5 1 I 17 18 j k k b b v Ev k-vC b 87

    b, 17 166

    A , 68 v

    , 55 16 I

    - , 4

    b , v

    b , 36

    16 I J 8 R R

    , 56 A NAFTA

    b , 16

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    R v US C

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    -

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    17-15 5

    T -

    35-7 Tk R k 17,

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    7 S NAFTA, Rb , D v R, D v O CAFTA FTA, v M U v b x

    While 59 percent

    of Americans still

    supported free

    trade [in 2007],

    the level had

    dropped markedlyfrom 78 percent

    recorded in 2002.

    One striking

    finding was that

    even 31 percent

    of Republicans

    viewed trade in

    a negative light,

    the highest figure

    in decades. In

    Europe the decline

    is less sharp.

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    The German Marshall Fund of the United States12

    Table 2. U.S. Congressional Votes on U.S. Trade Agreements, 19732008

    TRADE VOTES 1974 - 2008

    U.S. House of Representatives

    Yes

    Vote B D D %D R %R

    T T A 174 HR 171 1/11/173 11 45% 16 8

    T T A A 17 HR 4537 7/11/17 47 8% 141

    T T T A 184 HR 338 6/8/183 31 87% 137 8

    T Ob T

    Cv A 188 HR 4848 7/13/188 43 5% 133 7

    Dv Ex

    F Tk

    H R 11/

    S R 785/3/11 17 64% 1 1

    Ex F Tk

    (U R)HR 1876 6//13 145 56% 15 8

    NAFTA I HH 345 11/17/13 1 4% 13 7

    U R I HR 511 11//14 167 65% 11 6

    IMF F S A 1

    R T AA A

    HR 61 /5/18 14% 151 6

    S I Q HR 75 3/17/1 77 3% 1 4

    A G & O

    & Cbb THR 434 7/16/1 8 47% 136 6

    C P

    N T RHR 444 5/4/ 73 35% 164 7

    WTO HJ R 6/1/ 1 1% 33 1

    US-J F T A HR 63 7/31/1 P b v v

    US-V B T A HJ R 51 /6/1 P b v v

    T A HR 3 7/7/ 5 1% 1 8

    US-C F T A HR 738 7/4/3 75 37% 16 8

    US-S F T A HR 73 7/4/3 75 37% 17 8

    U D C U Rb C Gv v

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    A New Age of Protectionism?

    The economic crisis and transatlantic trade policy13

    U.S. Senate

    No Total Yes No Total

    R Y N D D %D R %R D R Y N

    11 1 7 14 1/13/174 45 78% 3 76% 3 1 77 4

    5 15 7 7/11/17 5 88% 11 3% 3 1 4

    18 5 368 43 //184 44 8% 5 5% 6

    4 41 376 45 8/31/188 5 3% 35 76% 1 1 85 11

    1 14 1 31 5/4/11 31 54% 5 1% 3 36 36 5

    1 3 5 16 6/3/13 3 7% 37 84% 1 4 76 16

    156 43 34 11//13 7 48% 34 77% 8 1 81 38

    8 56 88 146 1/1/14 41 75% 35 78% 14 1 76 4

    3/6/18 43 6% 41 75% 14 84 57

    171 71 18 43

    13 18 8 141 6//1 7 6% 15 7% 18 3 4 57

    63 34 163 11/3/1 3 67% 46 85% 13 6 76 1

    138 57 37 17 /1/ 37 8% 46 85% 7 8 83 15

    181 18 56 363

    /4/1 P b v v

    1/3/1 48 6% 3 76% 1 88 1

    183 7 15 1 8/1/ 4% 43 88% 5 64 34

    18 7 7 156 7/31/3 46% 43 84% 4 7 86 3

    17 4 7 155 7/31/3 46% 44 86% 4 7 86 3

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    A renewed

    push for Doha

    was supposed

    to be made

    in December

    2008, but littlehad changed in

    the negotiating

    dynamicsthe

    financial debacle

    had not by then

    produced enough

    collective drive

    for finishing the

    roundand

    ministers never

    convened.

    The German Marshall Fund of the United States14

    U S,

    b 14 I , C,

    , I1

    A - I, Bz,

    k v b EU

    US b,

    v b

    k T, W b v $164 b

    15-7b

    WTO F ,

    1 F bk J 8 WTOM, B (8)

    EU k

    C A P (CAP)

    - b k

    v

    3, b

    k,

    v--k EU 11

    A D b Db 8, b

    11 T EU 4 b ( 5b /6 b ) b F b, k 3 F CAP J 3, EU b 13, b v

    Table 2. U.S. Congressional Votes on U.S. Trade Agreements, 19732008

    TRADE VOTES 1974 - 2008

    U.S. House of Representatives

    Yes

    Vote B D D %D R %R

    US-A F T A HR 476 7/14/4 115 57% 18 8

    US-M F T A HR 484 7//4 1 5% 3 8

    C C A S A 3

    CAFTA I HR 345 7/8/5 15 7% 8

    US-B F T A HR 434 1/13/5 115 57% 1

    O B Db US P

    AqH A 71 3/15/6 8 4% 3 1

    US-O F T A HR 5684 7//6 11% 176 8

    US-P F T A HR 3688 11/8/7 1 47% 176 8

    S F-Tk P

    Cb FTAH R 1 4/1/8 18 3% 6 3

    U D C U Rb C Gv v

    S: B (8)

    continued from previous page

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    A New Age of Protectionism?

    The economic crisis and transatlantic trade policy15

    x

    b b

    v v

    v v, b

    k Db

    T B

    x, EU

    , T C

    P M v B Cb b B b B

    C A

    U.S. Senate

    No Total Yes No Total

    R Y N D D %D R %R D R Y N

    84 18 314 1 7/15/4 31 65% 48 4% 14 86 16

    8 8 33 7/1/4 38 7% 46 % 8 5 86 13

    4/6/5 37 84% 53% 7 6 87 33

    187 7 17 15 6/3/5 1 3% 43 78% 33 1 54 45

    81 13 37 5 1/13/5 P b v v

    18 14 38 377

    176 8 1 8 /1/6 1 18% 4 8% 7 5 6 3

    116 16 85 13 1/4/7 5% 47 6% 16 1 77 18

    1 185 4 15

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    The main

    predictors of

    protectionism

    in the United

    States have been

    shown to be risingunemployment,

    an appreciated

    exchange rate,

    and, in particular,

    an increased

    trade deficit.

    The German Marshall Fund of the United States16

    A k v

    8, B

    G,

    , W

    Nvb 15, 8, -v

    T G

    , x

    b I bq A-P E

    C (APEC) S L,

    1

    bz D

    R T b z v W E

    F Dv J

    W v

    bb, T

    v

    I b

    v ,

    q

    S, b ,

    EU U S, v k/ ,

    - b, b, k

    v b b G

    , v WTO ,

    v

    b T,

    v b v

    b

    Bad parameters

    R

    E U S

    b- b -

    b

    q v

    b W b , v,

    x v k

    T U

    S v b b

    x , , ,

    (I 5; B 5;

    Hx 1) C

    v zb v

    k ,

    , - b,

    L jb b

    1

    I , U S E v

    b v

    S 177, U S

    31 x

    T US N B E R

    (NBER) 11 145-7;

    v 1 (k

    ) 153-154 -K W

    , 157, 16-161, 173

    k , 18-18, 1-11,

    1-3, 8- T

    b v b

    ,

    I G, E ,

    v 166-167, 173-175, 18-183

    11-14, 1-3, 8- (F )

    S v

    (F 3) T b b

    U S

    18, EU

    U S k (F 4)

    1 W k ,GDP I (5) GDP b (AD) T AD -b

    The Crisis Hits

    3

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    A New Age of Protectionism?

    The economic crisis and transatlantic trade policy17

    0.0

    4.0

    6.0

    2.0

    10.0

    8.0

    14.0

    12.0

    1948

    1950

    1952

    1954

    1956

    1958

    1960

    1962

    1964

    1966

    1968

    1970

    1972

    1974

    1976

    1978

    1980

    1982

    1984

    1986

    1988

    1990

    1992

    1994

    1996

    1998

    2000

    2002

    2004

    2006

    2008

    U.S.

    EU

    Germany

    France

    U.K.

    Source: National Data Sources

    Figure 3: Unemployment in the United States, EU, Germany, France, and the U.K., 1948-2008

    Percentage

    -5.0

    5.0

    10.0

    0.0

    15.0

    20.0

    1948

    1950

    1952

    1954

    1956

    1958

    1960

    1962

    1964

    1966

    1968

    1970

    1972

    1974

    1976

    1978

    1980

    1982

    1984

    1986

    1988

    1990

    1992

    1994

    1996

    1998

    2000

    2002

    2004

    2006

    2008

    U.S.

    EU

    Germany

    France

    U.K.

    Source: National Data Sources

    Figure 2: Economic Growth in the United States, EU, Germany, France, and the U.K., 1948-2008

    Percentage The trade balanc

    has been in

    the red for the

    United States

    in particular

    since the 1980s,

    and it widened

    spectacularly in

    the EU and the

    United States

    alike in the 2000

  • 8/8/2019 A New Age of Protectionism? The Economic Crisis and Transatlantic Trade Policy

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    The onset of the

    Great Depression

    helped push the

    world economy

    into a downward

    protectionistspiral. The main

    factor driving the

    global closure

    was the U.S.

    Smoot-Hawley

    Tariff legislation

    of 1930.

    The German Marshall Fund of the United States18

    W, ,

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  • 8/8/2019 A New Age of Protectionism? The Economic Crisis and Transatlantic Trade Policy

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    Currency woes

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    Europe was

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    A New Age of Protectionism?

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    Judging by the

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    The fiscal stimulu

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    A New Age of Protectionism?

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    The Buy

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    A New Age of Protectionism?

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    Asian policies

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    Climate change

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    A New Age of Protectionism?

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  • 8/8/2019 A New Age of Protectionism? The Economic Crisis and Transatlantic Trade Policy

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    Dohas prospects

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    particularly by

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    be indispensable

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    A New Age of Protectionism?

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    The EU and the

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    The German Marshall Fund of the United States30

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    A New Age of Protectionism?

    The economic crisis and transatlantic trade policy31

    Cooperation and

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    The German Marshall Fund of the United States32

    A balanced

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    A New Age of Protectionism?

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