a new age of protectionism? the economic crisis and transatlantic trade policy
TRANSCRIPT
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A NEW AGE OF PROTECTIONISM?THE ECONOMIC CRISIS AND TRANSATLANTIC TRADE POLICY
KATI SUOMINEN
THE GERMAN MARSHALL FUND OF THE UNITED STATES
PAPER SERIES
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2009 Te German Marshall Fund o the United States. All rights reserved.
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in writing rom the German Marshall Fund o the United States (GMF). Please direct inquiries to:
Te German Marshall Fund o the United States
1744 R Street, NW
Washington, DC 20009
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copies are also available. o request a copy, send an e-mail to [email protected].
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Te GMF Paper Series presents research on a variety o transatlantic topics by staf, ellows, and partners o the
German Marshall Fund o the United States. Te views expressed here are those o the author and do not neces-
sarily represent the view o GMF. Comments rom readers are welcome; reply to the mailing address above or by
e-mail to [email protected].
About GMF
Te German Marshall Fund o the United States (GMF) is a non-partisan American public policy and grant-
making institution dedicated to promoting greater cooperation and understanding between North America
and Europe.
GMF does this by supporting individuals and institutions working on transatlantic issues, by convening leaders
to discuss the most pressing transatlantic themes, and by examining ways in which transatlantic cooperation canaddress a variety o global policy challenges. In addition, GMF supports a number o initiatives to strengthen
democracies.
Founded in 1972 through a gi rom Germany as a permanent memorial to Marshall Plan assistance, GMF
maintains a strong presence on both sides o the Atlantic. In addition to its headquarters in Washington, DC,
GMF has seven o ces in Europe: Berlin, Bratislava, Paris, Brussels, Belgrade, Ankara, and Bucharest.
About Brussels Forum
Brussels Forum is an annual high-level meeting o the most inuential American and European political, corpo-
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please visit www.brusselsorum.org.
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A New Age of Protectionism?
The economic crisis and transatlantic trade policy
Brussels Forum Paper Series
March 2009
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A New Age of Protectionism?
The economic crisis and transatlantic trade policy3
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The experience
of the past is
that isolationist
sentiments
and economic
hard landings
can decelerate
liberalization,
entice countries
to backtrack on
their trade policy
commitments,
and even result i
outright worldwid
protectionism,
particularly if
gripping the
leading trade
powers.
Introduction
1
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The German Marshall Fund of the United States4
W B A q , b b
T, jb
b , v
k k I,
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b k
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k
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v
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S b U S E
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Indeed,
distortionary
measures
could give
a license to
countries tocut corners on
open markets
and retaliate
against each
others actions.
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A New Age of Protectionism?
The economic crisis and transatlantic trade policy5
T U S E v b v b bz
- US E
, , bq, EU C
Ex T (CET),
13 (F 1) A ,
U S E v b
O
(x v GDP)
6 13
4 8 U S
b 7 E
I v , -
bz U S E
v S v US EU
35 5 , v,
7, b C, 145
I, 16 Mx, 1
A, 1 Bz,
6 C T b ,
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k
(Tb 1 1b)
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v
(FTA) D
b, U S
FTA C 18 bq
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W bq 1
FTA A, A,
M E
E FTA
b T EU
b -b,
b FTA E E
, x- ,
S A, Mx, C I 7,
B
A S A N (ASEAN),
I, K T EU
E-M A A
v M
Percent
0%
10%
15%
5%
20%
25%
30%
35%
1924
1926
1928
1930
1932
1934
1936
1938
1940
1942
1944
1946
1948
1950
1952
1954
1956
1958
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
U.S.
EU
Germany
France
Source: Clemens and Williamson (2004)
Figure 1: Applied Tariffs France, Germany, EU, and the United States, 1924-2000
Trade Policy Adrift
2
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The German Marshall Fund of the United States6
Table 1a. Tariffs and Imports by Product Group in 2007, EU
Bound duties MFN applied duties
Product Groups AVG Duty-free Max Binding AVG Duty-free Ma
% % %
A 68 6 15 1 5 36 15
D 668 37 1 64 15
F, vb, 17 8 31 1 116 185 31
C, 6 71 88 1 6 71 88
C 43 63 116 1 18 17 116
O, 56 48 113 1 6 431 113
S 5 133 1 8 133
Bv b 3 3 1 1 18 11
C 1 1 1
O 51 671 1 1 56 651 11
F 11 17 6 1 16 141 6
M 46 1 1 57 1
P 5 5 1 3 411 5
C 46 7 1 38 344 13W, 841 1 1 813 1
Tx 65 34 1 1 66 1 1
C 115 1 1 115 1
L, 4 78 17 1 41 61 17
N- 17 65 1 1 17 73 1
E 4 315 14 1 6 83 14
T q 41 157 1 41 17
M, 5 5 14 1 5 4 14
S: W T Oz
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A New Age of Protectionism?
The economic crisis and transatlantic trade policy7
B U S EU vv b
1 T
bz v
T U S b z
b
FTA, 7
b , EU
8 85 b
bk (Ev, S,
S ) EU US FTA
v, v v,
v, ,
Lb v
b U S E I
, B, G, Hb
(5) U S
1 bz
$5
b bz M
E b
EU b
B (1) k 15 E, EU GDP
b x 3
1 S, , M (6) T B FTA vbz bz v U S
T b , x, x q (TRQ) , v v , , ,
x (S 4; Ev S 8)
3 K (4) v , b GDP vE GDP b 4 6
Liberal trade
policies have
generated
immense benefit
for the United
States and
Europe the
United States ha
gained no less
than $1 trillion
annually due
to globalization
in the postwar
era and stands
to gain another
$500 billion per
year from future
liberalization.
Imports
Product Groups Share Duty-free
% %
A 4 15
D 1
F, vb, 16 114
C, 7 84
C 4 67
O, 1 61
S
Bv b 6 153
C 1
O 5 683
F 11 6
M 174 78
P 17 64
C 6 65W, 31 3
Tx 4 1
C 48
L, 5 16
N- 131 676
E 63 35
T q 61
M, 63 568
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The German Marshall Fund of the United States8
Table 1b. Tariffs and Imports by Product Group in 2007, United States
Bound duties MFN applied duties
Product Groups AVG Duty-free Max Binding AVG Duty-free Ma
% % %
A 6 317 6 1 7 31 6
D 14 3 1 41 3 3
F, vb, 47 43 13 1 51 15 13
C, 34 533 64 1 3 535 64
C 37 1 7 1 4 1 7
O, 46 8 164 1 5 43 164
S 175 1 131 1 1 131
Bv b 174 8 35 1 156 73 35
C 46 4 1 43 383
O 1 671 7 1 13 57 7
F 11 781 35 1 1 81 35
M 17 6 38 1 16 641 38
P 14 8 8 5 3 7
C 371 7 1 8 46 7W, 4 16 14 1 5 8 14
Tx 77 171 34 1 7 163 34
C 114 34 3 1 117 8 3
L, 46 387 56 1 3 417 56
N- 1 663 1 1 1 66 1
E 16 48 15 1 14 574 15
T q 31 545 5 1 3 657 5
M, 486 4 1 3 467 4
S: W T Oz
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A New Age of Protectionism?
The economic crisis and transatlantic trade policy9
Growing trade angst
T ,
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v v Transatlantic Trends 8
4 S x, L (8) Lv (8)
Worries about
jobs and wages
have spread from
manufacturing
to service sector
workers fearful o
the offshoring of
white-collar jobs
in information
technology and
business service
to countries
like India. Blue-
collar blues are
now also white-
collar worries.
Imports
Product Groups Shar Duty-free
% %
A 5 66
D 1 13
F, vb, 1 3
C, 4 766
C 5 35
O, 78
S 56
Bv b 11 484
C 53
O 644
F 6 87
M 153 733
P 14
C 64W, 46 36
Tx 1 181
C 45 7
L, 6 1
N- 151 831
E 6 63
T q 146 556
M, 6 68
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The German Marshall Fund of the United States10
, A 71
6 64 7,
C Mx 7 61
E b ,
75 v 6 7 k, b
j F, A,
v v jb,
P, I, B, G,
v
A 7 P R C v
W 5 A , v
k 78
O k v 31
Rb v v ,
I E, v
b vb v EU
b
v , S
85 G 78 B
v 7,
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5
S, M-A 8 New York Times-
CBS N , 58 A v
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5 W E b A, k I 8Uv M , 6 G I,5 B, 41 F k b b I , 7 U S, 64 C, 66 C, 68 I D, 18 v, b 5 1 I 17 18 j k k b b v Ev k-vC b 87
b, 17 166
A , 68 v
, 55 16 I
- , 4
b , v
b , 36
16 I J 8 R R
, 56 A NAFTA
b , 16
k O 3 A
US FTA
v , 73 b, 14
R v US C
F 17
NAFTA 14,
-
q b C b
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(Tb )7 T
T P A (TPA),
v C b xv
U S
US H Rv 1
b v, 15-14, U S-
D Rb-C A F T
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17-15 5
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35-7 Tk R k 17,
6 ://8/k///843_POLL
7 S NAFTA, Rb , D v R, D v O CAFTA FTA, v M U v b x
While 59 percent
of Americans still
supported free
trade [in 2007],
the level had
dropped markedlyfrom 78 percent
recorded in 2002.
One striking
finding was that
even 31 percent
of Republicans
viewed trade in
a negative light,
the highest figure
in decades. In
Europe the decline
is less sharp.
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The German Marshall Fund of the United States12
Table 2. U.S. Congressional Votes on U.S. Trade Agreements, 19732008
TRADE VOTES 1974 - 2008
U.S. House of Representatives
Yes
Vote B D D %D R %R
T T A 174 HR 171 1/11/173 11 45% 16 8
T T A A 17 HR 4537 7/11/17 47 8% 141
T T T A 184 HR 338 6/8/183 31 87% 137 8
T Ob T
Cv A 188 HR 4848 7/13/188 43 5% 133 7
Dv Ex
F Tk
H R 11/
S R 785/3/11 17 64% 1 1
Ex F Tk
(U R)HR 1876 6//13 145 56% 15 8
NAFTA I HH 345 11/17/13 1 4% 13 7
U R I HR 511 11//14 167 65% 11 6
IMF F S A 1
R T AA A
HR 61 /5/18 14% 151 6
S I Q HR 75 3/17/1 77 3% 1 4
A G & O
& Cbb THR 434 7/16/1 8 47% 136 6
C P
N T RHR 444 5/4/ 73 35% 164 7
WTO HJ R 6/1/ 1 1% 33 1
US-J F T A HR 63 7/31/1 P b v v
US-V B T A HJ R 51 /6/1 P b v v
T A HR 3 7/7/ 5 1% 1 8
US-C F T A HR 738 7/4/3 75 37% 16 8
US-S F T A HR 73 7/4/3 75 37% 17 8
U D C U Rb C Gv v
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A New Age of Protectionism?
The economic crisis and transatlantic trade policy13
U.S. Senate
No Total Yes No Total
R Y N D D %D R %R D R Y N
11 1 7 14 1/13/174 45 78% 3 76% 3 1 77 4
5 15 7 7/11/17 5 88% 11 3% 3 1 4
18 5 368 43 //184 44 8% 5 5% 6
4 41 376 45 8/31/188 5 3% 35 76% 1 1 85 11
1 14 1 31 5/4/11 31 54% 5 1% 3 36 36 5
1 3 5 16 6/3/13 3 7% 37 84% 1 4 76 16
156 43 34 11//13 7 48% 34 77% 8 1 81 38
8 56 88 146 1/1/14 41 75% 35 78% 14 1 76 4
3/6/18 43 6% 41 75% 14 84 57
171 71 18 43
13 18 8 141 6//1 7 6% 15 7% 18 3 4 57
63 34 163 11/3/1 3 67% 46 85% 13 6 76 1
138 57 37 17 /1/ 37 8% 46 85% 7 8 83 15
181 18 56 363
/4/1 P b v v
1/3/1 48 6% 3 76% 1 88 1
183 7 15 1 8/1/ 4% 43 88% 5 64 34
18 7 7 156 7/31/3 46% 43 84% 4 7 86 3
17 4 7 155 7/31/3 46% 44 86% 4 7 86 3
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A renewed
push for Doha
was supposed
to be made
in December
2008, but littlehad changed in
the negotiating
dynamicsthe
financial debacle
had not by then
produced enough
collective drive
for finishing the
roundand
ministers never
convened.
The German Marshall Fund of the United States14
U S,
b 14 I , C,
, I1
A - I, Bz,
k v b EU
US b,
v b
k T, W b v $164 b
15-7b
WTO F ,
1 F bk J 8 WTOM, B (8)
EU k
C A P (CAP)
- b k
v
3, b
k,
v--k EU 11
A D b Db 8, b
11 T EU 4 b ( 5b /6 b ) b F b, k 3 F CAP J 3, EU b 13, b v
Table 2. U.S. Congressional Votes on U.S. Trade Agreements, 19732008
TRADE VOTES 1974 - 2008
U.S. House of Representatives
Yes
Vote B D D %D R %R
US-A F T A HR 476 7/14/4 115 57% 18 8
US-M F T A HR 484 7//4 1 5% 3 8
C C A S A 3
CAFTA I HR 345 7/8/5 15 7% 8
US-B F T A HR 434 1/13/5 115 57% 1
O B Db US P
AqH A 71 3/15/6 8 4% 3 1
US-O F T A HR 5684 7//6 11% 176 8
US-P F T A HR 3688 11/8/7 1 47% 176 8
S F-Tk P
Cb FTAH R 1 4/1/8 18 3% 6 3
U D C U Rb C Gv v
S: B (8)
continued from previous page
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A New Age of Protectionism?
The economic crisis and transatlantic trade policy15
x
b b
v v
v v, b
k Db
T B
x, EU
, T C
P M v B Cb b B b B
C A
U.S. Senate
No Total Yes No Total
R Y N D D %D R %R D R Y N
84 18 314 1 7/15/4 31 65% 48 4% 14 86 16
8 8 33 7/1/4 38 7% 46 % 8 5 86 13
4/6/5 37 84% 53% 7 6 87 33
187 7 17 15 6/3/5 1 3% 43 78% 33 1 54 45
81 13 37 5 1/13/5 P b v v
18 14 38 377
176 8 1 8 /1/6 1 18% 4 8% 7 5 6 3
116 16 85 13 1/4/7 5% 47 6% 16 1 77 18
1 185 4 15
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The main
predictors of
protectionism
in the United
States have been
shown to be risingunemployment,
an appreciated
exchange rate,
and, in particular,
an increased
trade deficit.
The German Marshall Fund of the United States16
A k v
8, B
G,
, W
Nvb 15, 8, -v
T G
, x
b I bq A-P E
C (APEC) S L,
1
bz D
R T b z v W E
F Dv J
W v
bb, T
v
I b
v ,
q
S, b ,
EU U S, v k/ ,
- b, b, k
v b b G
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b T,
v b v
b
Bad parameters
R
E U S
b- b -
b
q v
b W b , v,
x v k
T U
S v b b
x , , ,
(I 5; B 5;
Hx 1) C
v zb v
k ,
, - b,
L jb b
1
I , U S E v
b v
S 177, U S
31 x
T US N B E R
(NBER) 11 145-7;
v 1 (k
) 153-154 -K W
, 157, 16-161, 173
k , 18-18, 1-11,
1-3, 8- T
b v b
,
I G, E ,
v 166-167, 173-175, 18-183
11-14, 1-3, 8- (F )
S v
(F 3) T b b
U S
18, EU
U S k (F 4)
1 W k ,GDP I (5) GDP b (AD) T AD -b
The Crisis Hits
3
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A New Age of Protectionism?
The economic crisis and transatlantic trade policy17
0.0
4.0
6.0
2.0
10.0
8.0
14.0
12.0
1948
1950
1952
1954
1956
1958
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
U.S.
EU
Germany
France
U.K.
Source: National Data Sources
Figure 3: Unemployment in the United States, EU, Germany, France, and the U.K., 1948-2008
Percentage
-5.0
5.0
10.0
0.0
15.0
20.0
1948
1950
1952
1954
1956
1958
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
U.S.
EU
Germany
France
U.K.
Source: National Data Sources
Figure 2: Economic Growth in the United States, EU, Germany, France, and the U.K., 1948-2008
Percentage The trade balanc
has been in
the red for the
United States
in particular
since the 1980s,
and it widened
spectacularly in
the EU and the
United States
alike in the 2000
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The onset of the
Great Depression
helped push the
world economy
into a downward
protectionistspiral. The main
factor driving the
global closure
was the U.S.
Smoot-Hawley
Tariff legislation
of 1930.
The German Marshall Fund of the United States18
W, ,
b b P GATT/WTO
k b,
x
T D -k
T 13 F, 1, U S, U K,
E
b 17
W E C G
E E
x
T 13 v
k
G D
T v b US
S-H T 13,
k b A
13 S I (13)
A k
v b ,
W
, U S
,
W b G D,
xb ,
bq C,
F, I, S, Sz M
bv 113 v,
q, ,
x D
B C
b, E b F, C E b k
G,
v
(E I 15) P
F v
-800
-400
-200
-600
400
200
0
800
600
1948
1950
1952
1954
1956
1958
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
U.S.
EU
Germany
France
U.K.
Source: COMTRADE
Figure 4: Trade Balance in the U.S., EU, Germany, France, and the U.K., 1948-2008
Inbillionso
fU.S.
do
llars
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Currency woes
also entered
the picture. The
negotiations for
the Tokyo Round
were able to star
only after severa
substantial
currency
realignments,
which helped
quell the
protectionist
pressures.
A New Age of Protectionism?
The economic crisis and transatlantic trade policy19
, I ( A H),J, Sv U v
b14 B 131,
53 F, 8
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k v jb
-
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Europe was
similarly faced
with deep
recessions
and attendant
unemployment inthe 1970s and
1980s Trade
was blamed
for the rise in
unemployment,
and Europeans
resisted
liberalization in
particular vis--vis
non-EU members.
The German Marshall Fund of the United States20
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-
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A New Age of Protectionism?
The economic crisis and transatlantic trade policy21
v b bz B
b
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WTO
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0
20
30
10
60
70
40
50
90
80
1948
1950
1952
1954
1956
1958
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
Jan.
June2008
U.S.
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Source: World Trade Organization; Irwin (2005)
Figure 5: Initiated Antidumping Investigations in the United States and EU, 1948-2008
-
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Judging by the
key determinants
of U.S. and
European trade
protectionism in
the pastthefuture of trade
policy looks
grim. In February
2009, U.S.
unemployment
reached a 27-
year high at an
estimated 7.6
percent, while
in Germany
unemployment
rose almost twice
as much and
the country is
now fighting its
worst slump since
World War II.
The German Marshall Fund of the United States22
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-
8/8/2019 A New Age of Protectionism? The Economic Crisis and Transatlantic Trade Policy
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The fiscal stimulu
packages effecte
in response to th
financial crisis
are effectively
subsidies and
as such can
introduce real
distortions to
global commerce
as well as lead
to retaliation and
endless WTO
disputes about
illegal state aid.
A New Age of Protectionism?
The economic crisis and transatlantic trade policy23
8 (WTO )17
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-
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The Buy
American
provisions in the
U.S. economic
stimulus plan
sparked instantand strong
protests about
protectionism
from U.S. trading
partners, including
the EU, as well
as pro-business
thinktanks and
associations.
The German Marshall Fund of the United States24
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According to the
WTO, since the
bodys January
23 report on
new trade
barriers there
are new troubling
indications
that more
protectionism
may be ahead.
A New Age of Protectionism?
The economic crisis and transatlantic trade policy25
(WTO )
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-
8/8/2019 A New Age of Protectionism? The Economic Crisis and Transatlantic Trade Policy
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Asian policies
to boost exports
would receive
strong scrutiny
in Brussels and
Washington, bothof which are
already pressed
about the flood of
Chinese imports.
The German Marshall Fund of the United States26
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Climate change
can be used as
a convenient
excuse to
protect domestic
industries,
particularly in ha
economic times.
A New Age of Protectionism?
The economic crisis and transatlantic trade policy27
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8/8/2019 A New Age of Protectionism? The Economic Crisis and Transatlantic Trade Policy
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Dohas prospects
could well brighte
when the politica
cycle in India is
complete and a
new government
is installed in Ma
or June 2009.
But leadership,
particularly by
the EU and the
United States, wi
be indispensable
for pushing Doha
to a successful
conclusion.
A New Age of Protectionism?
The economic crisis and transatlantic trade policy29
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-
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The EU and the
United States are
key players for
other countries
to emulate and
follow, and thustheir domestic
and international
economic policies
will be hugely
important for the
coming efforts
to climb out of
global recession.
The German Marshall Fund of the United States30
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Agenda for Transatlantic Trade
Cooperation4
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A New Age of Protectionism?
The economic crisis and transatlantic trade policy31
Cooperation and
leadership by the
United States an
EU is imperative
for getting world
trade and the
global economy
humming again.
This means tight
cooperation and
leadership at
the multilateral
level, and smart,
protrade policies
domestically.
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The German Marshall Fund of the United States32
A balanced
bilateral push
will be good
for the odds of
recovery, balanced
trade, and amore balanced
global financial
system...The
global economic
future is at stake.
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A New Age of Protectionism?
The economic crisis and transatlantic trade policy33
B, H G : EU Mb
S (15-) IEF Wk P N
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Db 1
B, C F A P Eq:
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A 8
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Foreign Affairs, Db 5
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B S Ev, What
World Leaders Must Do to Halt the Spread of
Protectionism VxEU, 8 vx/
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(IFPRI)
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The United States and the World Economy:
Foreign Economic Policy for the Next Decade
W: I I
E, 5
B, L US T V, 174-8
://bk/~//F//
/7/117__b/117__
b
C, M A W, J GW T-G C C
15Journal of Economic Growth , 1
(4)
E, B D I T
B, C B R
W T 13Journal of
International Economics 38, 1- (15)
Ev, A, M S,
K S Mk A Pv
R T A I A
Ev, K S, Rb T,
Regional Rules in the Global Trading System
Cb: Cb Uv P,
Ev, S J K B O D
Gb D: W A O
VxEU, J 8, ://vx
/xq=/847
D, I MAmerican Trade Politics
W, DC:P I
I E, 15
Ex S A B Pv I WTO
B, Rk T Inside U.S. Trade,
Db 6, 8
G, Rb The Political Economy of
International Relations P: P
Uv P, 187
G, Ez C P
Ub W E I G
F G Sj, Protectionism and
International Banking L: M,
11
G, M N L,
Debating Chinas Exchange Rate Policy.
W: P I I
E, 8
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The economic crisis and transatlantic trade policy35
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OFF I C E S