a n n ua l r e s u lt s for the year ended 30 september 2017

26
ANNUAL RESULTS for the year ended 30 September 2017

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Page 1: A N N UA L R E S U LT S for the year ended 30 September 2017

A N N U A L R E S U LT Sfor the year ended 30 September 2017

Page 2: A N N UA L R E S U LT S for the year ended 30 September 2017

DISCLAIMER

These Presentation Materials are for information purposes only and must not be used or relied upon for the purpose of making any investmentdecision or engaging in any investment activity. Whilst the information contained herein has been prepared in good faith, neither Tharisa plc(the “Company”), its subsidiaries (together, the “Group”) nor any of the Group’s directors, officers, employees, agents or advisers makes anyrepresentation or warranty in respect of the fairness, accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained in this presentationand no responsibility or liability will be accepted in connection with the same. The information contained herein is provided as at the date ofthis presentation and is subject to updating, completion, revision, verification and further amendment without notice.

These Presentation Materials contain forward-looking statements in relation to the Group. By its very nature, such forward-lookinginformation requires the Company to make assumptions that may not materialise or that may not be accurate. Such forward-lookingstatements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other important factors beyond the control of the Company that could causethe actual performance or achievements of the Company to be materially different from any future results, performance or achievementsexpressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Nothing in this presentation should be construed as a profit forecast. Past shareperformance cannot be relied on as a guide to future performance.

2

Page 3: A N N UA L R E S U LT S for the year ended 30 September 2017

HIGHLIGHTS RECORD NPATUS$67.7 m

3

EBITDA

US$115.6m(2016: US$43.0m)

↑168.7%

PGM PRODUCTION

143.6 koz(2016: 132.6 koz)

↑8.3%

HEPS

US$ 22 cents(2016: US$ 6 cent)

↑266.7%

PROPOSED DIVIDEND

US$ 5 cents(2016: US$ 1 cent)

CHROME CONCENTRATE PRODUCTION

1.3 Mt(2016: 1.2 Mt)

↑7.0%

REEF MINED

5.0 Mt(2016: 4.8 Mt)

↑3.9%

SPECIALTY GRADE CHROME PRODUCTION

323.1 kt(2016: 269.4 kt)

↑19.9%

REVENUE

US$349.4m(2016: US$219.6m)

↑59.1% ↑400.0%

Page 4: A N N UA L R E S U LT S for the year ended 30 September 2017

SUSTAINABILITY

HEALTH AND SAFETY

▪ Two fatality free years

▪ LTIFR 0.07 per 200 000 hours worked

▪ Three safety awards: Best Safety Performance and Best Improved Performance awards at Mine Safe 2017, and an award from the Mine Health and Safety Council for 2 000 fatality free production shifts

LABOUR RELATIONS

▪ No labour disruptions during the year

▪ Transferred ~900 employees from previous mining contractor post the financial year end

▪ Tharisa Minerals total staff compliment ~1 700 (including mining contractors)

TRAINING AND DEVELOPMENT

▪ On mine training centre

▪ Learnerships, adult education and training

▪ Compliance to competency

4

LTIFR

0.07(FY2016: 0.36)

BEST SAFETY PERFORMANCEBEST IMPROVED PERFORMANCE2 000 FATALITY FREE PRODUCTION SHIFTS

ZERO HARM

Page 5: A N N UA L R E S U LT S for the year ended 30 September 2017

SUSTAINABILITY

ENVIRONMENT

▪ Subscribe to the Equator Principles

▪ Environmental monitoring plan

▪ Environmental rehabilitation provision of US$13.7 m

THUSANANG WELLNESS PROGRAMME

▪ TB programme

▪ HIV/AIDS programme

▪ Cancer awareness programme

▪ Wellness days

▪ Peer educator programme

COMMUNITY PROJECTS

▪ Support of community SMME – Rocasize ‒ Garden services

‒ Brick making

‒ Clothing and personal protective equipment

▪ Retief Primary school food forest

5

Page 6: A N N UA L R E S U LT S for the year ended 30 September 2017

PRODUCTION AND OPERATIONAL HIGHLIGHTS

6

Page 7: A N N UA L R E S U LT S for the year ended 30 September 2017

HIGHLIGHTS

7

REEF MINED

Mtpa

↑3.9%

3.3

3.9 4.2

4.8 5.0

FY2013 FY2014 FY2015 FY2016 FY2017

PGM PRODUCTION

kozpa

↑8.3%

57.4

78.2

118.0

132.6143.6

FY2013 FY2014 FY2015 FY2016 FY2017

CHROME PRODUCTION

Mtpa

↑7.0%

1.2 1.1 1.1

1.2 1.3

5.2%

13.7%10.1%

21.7%24.3%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

45.0%

50.0%

0

200

400

600

800

100 0

120 0

140 0

FY2013 FY2014 FY2015 FY2016 FY2017

Percentage specialty grade

PGM RECOVERY

79.7%(2016: 69.9%)

↑14.0% CHROME RECOVERY

64.1%(2016: 62.7%)

↑2.2%

DELIVERING SUSTAINABLE VALUE

Page 8: A N N UA L R E S U LT S for the year ended 30 September 2017

PRODUCTION

8

KEY OPERATIONAL METRICS FY2017 FY2016 Change

Reef mined kt 5 025.1 4 837.2 3.9%

Stripping ratio m3:m3 7.5 7.3

PGM rougher feed grade g/t 1.56 1.65 (5.5%)

Chrome grade % 17.8 18.0 (1.1%)

ROM processed kt 4 916.2 4 656.3 5.6%

PGM recovery % 79.7 69.9 14.0%

PGM in concentrate produced koz 143.6 132.6 8.3%

Chrome recovery % 64.1 62.7 2.2%

Chrome concentrate produced kt 1 331.2 1 243.7 7.0%

PGM basket price US$/oz 786 736 6.8%

Chrome concentrate price (42% CIF China)

US$/t 200 120 66.7%

Average exchange rate ZAR:US$ 13.4 14.8 9.5%

RECORD PRODUCTION

Page 9: A N N UA L R E S U LT S for the year ended 30 September 2017

9

STRATEGY IMPLEMENTATION

Page 10: A N N UA L R E S U LT S for the year ended 30 September 2017

OWNER MINING TRANSITION

10

INHOUSE INSOURCINGeffective 1 October 2017

Mining Expertise

Mine management

Geologists

In-pit supervisors

Surveyors

Engineers

Maintenance

Plant and equipment

Purchased yellow fleet,

infrastructure and components

Skills

Transferred ~900 mining employees

Drilling

Blasting is outsourced

Benefits

Safety culture alignment Greater control over stripping rates Quality and grade control Unit cost reduction through efficiency Preventative maintenance

Optimised primary mining fleet

19 drill rigs 11 excavators 46 trucks Capable of moving 17 Mm3 per annum ~85 support vehicles

ESTIMATED FLEET REPLACEMENT VALUE

~US$145.0 m

ESTIMATED LIFE OF NEW FLEET

~8 years

Page 11: A N N UA L R E S U LT S for the year ended 30 September 2017

IMPROVEMENTS

▪ Compliance to mine plan

▪ During the transition to owner mining – increased management and oversight resulted in availabilities and utilisations improving

▪ Focus on:

‒ Improving availability and utilisation

‒ Drill efficiencies and effectiveness

‒ Fragmentation

11

OWNER MINING TRANSITION

INTEGRATION

▪ Implemented asset management and maintenance tool for the mining fleet and integrated into the Tharisa ERP

▪ Fully integrated with Tharisa’s SHE and HR systems with compliance reporting

▪ Commitment to technical competence and culture of continuous improvement and innovation

PRODUCTION FLEET TARGET AVAILABILITY

85.0%

PRODUCTION FLEET TARGET UTILISATION

75.0%

Page 12: A N N UA L R E S U LT S for the year ended 30 September 2017

VALUE ADD INITIATIVES

12

SUPPLYING TISCO JV One of the largest stainless steel

producers Five year strategic cooperation

agreement Minimum of 240 ktpa chrome

concentrate at market prices Represents ~25% of Tharisa’s

metallurgical grade chrome concentrate

Effective September 2017

THIRD PARTY CHROME

Arxo Metals entered into an agreement with Western Platinum

Operates the K3 UG2 plant and markets and sells UG2 chrome produced

Approximately 200 ktpa of chrome concentrates

September production of 20 kt

PGM RICH ALLOY

Commissioning of 1 MW DC furnace to produce PGM rich alloy on a pilot scale

Further beneficiation capability On sale and further beneficiation of

PGM rich alloy with Lonmin under PGM research and development cooperation agreement

Page 13: A N N UA L R E S U LT S for the year ended 30 September 2017

COMMODITY MARKETS

13

Page 14: A N N UA L R E S U LT S for the year ended 30 September 2017

PLATINUM DEMAND AND SUPPLY

▪ Demand driven by the auto catalyst, jewellery, industrial and investment sectors

▪ Both primary and secondary sources of supply seen decreasing

▪ Primary supply weaker in 2017 due to supressed average prices, with lower capital investment and cost increases

▪ In 2017 platinum market expected to be close to balance

▪ WPIC forecast deficit in 2018 of 250 koz

PGM MARKET

PLATINUM, PALLADIUM AND RHODIUM MARKET PRICES [US$/oz]

14

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17

Platinum Palladium Rhodium

Pt55.2%

Pd16.1%

Ru14.3%

Rd9.5%

Ir4.7%

Au0.2%

THARISA PRILL SPLIT

Source: Johnson Matthey, 23 Nov ‘17

5.8 5.16.1 6.1 6.0

2.02.1

1.7 1.9 1.9

8.68.1 8.3 8.2

7.6

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 (f)

Primary supply Recycling Demand

6.4 6.1 6.5 6.8 6.6

2.5 2.7 2.4 2.5 2.7

9.510.7

9.2 9.410.1

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 (f)

Primary supply Recycling Demand

PLATINUM DEMAND AND SUPPLY [Moz] PALLADIUM DEMAND AND SUPPLY [Moz]

Page 15: A N N UA L R E S U LT S for the year ended 30 September 2017

DEMAND AND SUPPLY

▪ Demand for metallurgical grade chrome concentrate is driven by its use in the manufacture of stainless steel, the production of which is estimated to grow at between 3% to 4% in 2017

▪ China is wholly dependent on imports of chrome ore

▪ Chrome prices were volatile during 2017, peaking at US$390 and dipping to US$130 then recovery above US$200/t

▪ Now holding between US$165/t to US$170/t

▪ Chrome stocks at Chinese ports are at 2.4 Mt – just over two month’s worth of supply to the ferrochrome and stainless steel industry

15

CHROME MARKET

METALLURGICAL GRADE CHROME PRICE / PORT STOCK

75.7% 78.3%

24.3% 21.7%

FY2017 FY2016

Metallurgical grade Specialty grade

THARISA PRODUCT MIX

CHEMICAL GRADE FOUNDRY GRADE

Cr2O3 – 45% to 47%SiO2 - <1.2%

Cr2O3 - >46%SiO2 - <1.0%

Used to produce sodium dichromate used in leather tanning, pigments, plating

Used in moulds for metal castings and nozzle sands

-

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17

Sto

cks

[kt]

Pri

ce [

US$

/t]

42% Market price Port stocks

Source: Ferroalloynet, ICDA, 23 Nov ‘17

THARISA PROPORTION OF SOUTH AFRICAN EXPORTS TO CHINA

~10.9%

THARISA AVG MET PRICE FY2017

US$200/t

SPECIALTY CIF EQUIVALENT BASIS

+US$50/t premium

Page 16: A N N UA L R E S U LT S for the year ended 30 September 2017

FINANCIAL RESULTS

16

Page 17: A N N UA L R E S U LT S for the year ended 30 September 2017

HIGHLIGHTS

17

GROUP REVENUE

US$ millions

↑51.9%

215.5240.7 246.8

219.6

349.4

12.0% 13.5%

17.5%

24.8%

35.1%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

FY2013 FY2014 FY2015 FY2016 FY2017

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

EBITDA

US$ millions

↑168.7%

13.9 16.5

29.0

43.0

115.6

6.5% 6.9%11.8%

19.6%

33.1%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

FY2013 FY2014 FY2015 FY2016 FY2017

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

HEPS

US$ cents

↑266.7%

-19 -20

2

6

22

FY2013 FY2014 FY2015 FY2016 FY2017

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

Gross profit margin EBITDA margin

AVERAGE PGM PRICE

US$786/oz(2016: US$736 /oz)

42% CHROME PRICE (CIF CHINA)

US$200/t(2016: US$120/t)

↑6.8% ↑66.7%

Page 18: A N N UA L R E S U LT S for the year ended 30 September 2017

INCOME STATEMENT HIGHLIGHTS

18

SUMMARY OF RESULTS

SEGMENTAL ANALYSIS

US$ millions FY2017 FY2016 Change

Revenue 349.4 219.6 59.1%

Gross profit 122.7 54.5 125.2%

Gross profit margin 35.1% 24.8% 41.5%

Results from operating activities 95.9 32.1 198.4%

EBITDA 115.6 43.0 168.7%

EBITDA margin 33.1% 19.6% 68.9%

Net finance costs 4.9 10.2 (51.6%)

Profit before tax 91.0 22.0 314.2%

Tax 23.3 6.2 277.8%

Profit for the year 67.7 15.8 328.5%

Effective tax rate 25.6% 28.1% (8.9%)

Headline earnings per share (US$ cents) 22 6 266.7%

Proposed dividend per share (US$ cents) 5 1 400.0%

Dividend yield 3.7%

FY2017 FY2016

Segmental analysis PGMs Chrome Agency PGMs Chrome Agency

Gross profit 36.2 86.2 0.3 24.2 30.3 -

Gross profit margin 39.8% 34.1% 5.4% 29.7% 21.9% -

Sales volume 143.5 koz 1.3 Mt - 132.9 koz 1.2 Mt -

Shared cost allocation 35.0% 65.0% - 50.0% 50.0% -

Average transport cost per tonne of chrome concentrate (CIF main ports China) - 52.0 - - 42.0 -

EXCHANGE RATE

ZAR:US$ STRENGTHENED 9.5%

PROPOSED DIVIDEND

US$ 5 cents per share

Page 19: A N N UA L R E S U LT S for the year ended 30 September 2017

PGM REVENUE AND GROSS PROFIT MARGIN

19

SEGMENTAL ANALYSIS

CHROME REVENUE AND GROSS PROFIT MARGIN

54.3

70.4

83.1 81.5

90.9

7.0%

24.0% 23.1%

29.7%

39.8%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

FY2013 FY2014 FY2015 FY2016 FY2017

US$ millions

161.2170.4 163.7

138.1

252.9

13.7%10.0%

14.6%

21.9%

34.1%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

FY2013 FY2014 FY2015 FY2016 FY2017

US$ millions

56.980.4

119.9132.9

143.5

1132 1103 885 736 7860

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

FY2013 FY2014 FY2015 FY2016 FY2017

1.0 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.3

165 158 158 120 2000

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

FY2013 FY2014 FY2015 FY2016 FY2017

PGM basket price [US$/oz] 42% chrome price

[US$/tonne]

PGM SALES VOLUME

koz

CHROME CONCENTRATE SALES VOLUME

Mt

PGM SHARED COSTS

35.0%(2016: 50.0%)

CHROME SHARED COSTS

65.0%(2016: 50.0%)

Page 20: A N N UA L R E S U LT S for the year ended 30 September 2017

FUNDING

20

BALANCE SHEET

OWNER MINING FUNDING

US$ millions FY2017Pro forma

FY2017 FY2016

Total interest bearing debt 54.2 74.8 67.1

Long term 4.4 19.0 24.0

Short term* 49.8 55.8 43.1

Debt service reserve account 4.5 4.5 9.8

Adjusted interest bearing debt 49.6 70.2 57.3

Adjusted debt to total equity ratio 18.2% 25.8% 28.4%

Cash and cash equivalents 49.7 49.7 15.8

Net debt (0.1) 20.6 41.4

Net debt to total equity ratio 0.0% 7.6% 20.5%

Net current assets 63.3 57.1 0.5

Return on equity 19.4% 19.4% 5.8%

Bridge facility of US$14.4 m

Refinancing term sheet signed

OEM finance of US$6.2 m

CASH CONSIDERATION

OF US$20.6 m

US$6.6 m

EQUIPMENT RENTALS

*Includes certain amounts in accounts payable relating mainly to accrued dividends payable by a subsidiary

Page 21: A N N UA L R E S U LT S for the year ended 30 September 2017

SUMMARISED CASH FLOW STATEMENT

21

CASH FLOW

OPERATIONALLY CASH GENERATIVE

US$ millions FY2017 FY2016

Cash flow from operating activities 73.2 22.2

Investing cash flows (26.6) (12.0)

Financing cash flows (12.5) (18.2)

Net increase / (decrease) in cash 34.1 (8.0)

Cash at the end of the period 49.7 15.8

Depreciation 16.9 10.3

Free cash flow per share (US$ cents) 18.2 0.1

Price/free cash flow per share 7.9 24.5 -3.0

22.4

41.4

22.2

73.2

FY2013 FY2014 FY2015 FY2016 FY2017

US$ millions

INVESTMENT IN MINING FLEET

US$7.1 m(2016:US$0.3 m)

FREE CASH FLOW PER SHARE

US$ 18.2 cents(2016:US$ 0.1 cent)

13.5% 13.2%9.5%

7.3% 6.5%4.6%

3.0%

-3.8%-7.0% -7.0%

-16.9%

-21.0%South 32 Tharisa Rio Tinto Amplats Antofagasta Randgold Polymetal Northam Implats Pan African Lonmin Royal

Bafokeng

FREE CASH FLOW YIELD (29 NOVEMBER 2017)

Source: Bloomberg

Page 22: A N N UA L R E S U LT S for the year ended 30 September 2017

UNIT COSTS

22

COST ANALYSIS

OPERATING COST ANALYSIS – EX WORKS

Mining**43.7%

Utilities7.0%Reagents

2.5%

Steelballs4.7%

Labour10.6%

Diesel12.4%

Overheads19.2%

**Includes contractor mining labour

By product basis FY2017 FY2016

All in cost per Pt ounce sold US$/oz (296.1) 437.8

All in cost per 42% chrome tonne sold US$/t 114.0 85.2

38.2 37.731.9 34.9

16.4 12.7

8.410.6

0

5

10

15

20

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

FY2014 FY2015 FY2016 FY2017

Cash cost excluding logistics Logistics Stripping ratio Exchange rate

CONSOLIDATED CASH COST PER TONNE MILLED

US$/tonne milled

54.650.4

40.3 45.5

STRIPPING RATIO

7.5 m3:m3

(2016: 7.3 m3:m3)

AVERAGE EXCHANGE RATE

ZAR:US$13.4(2016:ZAR:US$14.8)

All in cost includes operating costs, administration costs and capital

Mining23.0%

Utilities7.5%

Reagents2.3%

Steelballs4.1%

Labour25.5%

Diesel18.1%

Overheads19.5%

FY2018 FORECAST

FY2017Mining costs FY2017FY2017 at LOM

stripping*

Mining cost per reef tonne US$/t 18.8 22.2

Mining cost per cube US$/m3 7.8 8.2

*LOM stripping ratio of 9.7

Page 23: A N N UA L R E S U LT S for the year ended 30 September 2017

23

INVESTMENT CASE AND OUTLOOK

Page 24: A N N UA L R E S U LT S for the year ended 30 September 2017

INVESTMENT CASE

24

3.1

6.2

8.4

11.3 12.0

20.1

31.8

Tharisa Sibanye-Stillwater Implats Amplats Lonmin Northam Royal Bafokeng

EV/EBITDA

US$ millions Tharisa Sibanye Implats Amplats Lonmin NorthamRoyal

Bafokeng

EV 352.5 4 459.9 2 277.6 7 394.3 147.7 1 876.5 731.6

EBITDA 2017E 115.6 716.7 272.7 654.6 12.3 93.4 23.0

Source: Company filings and consensus views

DIVIDEND YIELD (2016A)

LOW COST CO-PRODUCER

UPSIDE VALUE GROWTH POTENTIAL

0.8% 0.9%1.1%

1.5%

3.5%3.7%

3.9%4.1% 4.1%

4.5% 4.5%4.7%

5.2%

Glencore Hochschild Randgold Antofagasta Pan African Tharisa(2017)

Rio Tinto Polymetal South32 AcaciaMining

Anglo Pacific BHP Biliton Vedanta

Source: Company filings, FactSet, Bloomberg

62.1

37.9 37.7

31.6 31.2

16.4 14.7 13.710.7 10.4

8.2 6.6 5.8

Amplats Antofagasta Hochschild Glencore Randgold BHP Biliton Polymetal Rio Tinto South32 Pan African Anglo Pacific Tharisa AcaciaMining

PE RATIO (30 NOVEMBER 2017)

Page 25: A N N UA L R E S U LT S for the year ended 30 September 2017

DELIVERING ON OUR STRATEGY

LEADING NATURAL RESOURCES GROUP

Globally significant diversified low cost operations

INNOVATION

Growth through innovative research and development

OPTIMISATION INITIATIVES

Maximise value extraction

LEVERAGING MARKETING AND

LOGISTICS PLATFORM

Marketing, sales and logistics platform

Expansion into multi-commodities

Geographic diversity

CAPITAL DISCIPLINE

Dividend policy of minimum 10% NPAT

Capital allocation to low risk projects

Record financial and operational year

Organic growth and R&D

Vision 2020

Proposed dividend of US$ 5 cents per share

Increased dividend policy to at least 15%

of NPAT

Improved recoveriesInitiated third party agency and logistics

25

FY2018 GUIDANCE: PGMS OF 150 kozpa & CHROME CONCENTRATES OF 1.4 Mtpa

Page 26: A N N UA L R E S U LT S for the year ended 30 September 2017

VISION 2020

ROM of 5.0 MtpaPGMs of 143.6 kozpaChrome concentrates

of 1.3 Mtpa

20

17

ROM of 5.9 MtpaPGMs of 200 kozpa

Chrome concentrates of 2.0 Mtpa

20

20PGM flotation upgrade

UG1 plant

Vulcan plant

26

QUESTIONS