a multi-criteria decision model for prioritization of critical road structures
DESCRIPTION
Presented at Informs Annual Conference in Washington D.C.Disasters, not only cause loss of human life, but also environmental damage, disruption of the working infrastructure, and economic loss. In mitigation phase of a well-constructed emergency management, prioritization of bridges, viaducts and tunnels that play a critical role in response and recovery phases, stays on top of the to-do list. In this context, this study first develops a multi-criteria decision model, and implements the proposed model on a critical zone under high seismic activity.TRANSCRIPT
INFORMS Annual Meeting 2008Washington D.C.
October 15, 2008 Wednesday 13:30 - 15:00 Marriot Wardman - Room 8218
Session WC14Multi-criteria Decision Model for Project Portfolio Selection Considering Synergies
Marina Duarte, Adiel Teixeira Almeida
A Multiple Criteria Sorting Approach with Tchebycheff Utility Function Banu Soylu
Country Credit-risk Rating Aggregation via the Separation-deviation Model Erick Moreno Centeno, Dorit Hochbaum
Evaluating the Impact of Additional Information in the Context of MCDA with Information Imperfection
Sarah Ben Amor, Jean-Marc Martel
A Multi-criteria Decision Model for Prioritization of Critical Road Structures
Ozay Ozaydin, Ilker Topcu
A multi-criteria decision model for prioritization of critical road structures
Ozay OZAYDIN & Y. Ilker TOPCUIstanbul Technical University
agenda
• Disaster
• Disaster management
• Decision model
disaster
2
vulnerability+
hazard
human related
geologic hydrometeorologic
natural technical
human related
complex emergencies
infectious diseases
population movement
famine/food insecurity
drought
animal and insect infestation
natural
transport accidents
industrial accidents
techn
ical
hydrometeorologic
tsunami
flood
typhoon, tornado..
earthquake
volcanic eruptions
landslide
geolo
gic
human related
geologic hydrometeorologic
natural technical
earthquake
volcaniceruption
landslide
complexemergencysituations
infectiousdiseases
populationmovement
famine
transportaccidents
industrialaccidents
draught
insectinfestation
tsunamiflood
typhoon,tornado..
earthquake
EMDATThe International Emergency Disasters Database
www.emdat.be
funded by United Nations
contains location, time, casualty, economic loss, impact area information of all disasters occurred between
1900 - 2008
all researchers are welcome after filling out a simple form
Disaster Date Casualties
Earthquake December 26, 1939 32,962
Earthquake August 17, 1999 17,127
Earthquake April 29, 1903 6,000
Earthquake November 26, 1942 4,000
Earthquake February 1, 1944 3,959
Earthquake November 24, 1976 3,840
Earthquake December 20, 1942 3,000
Earthquake November 26, 1943 2,824
Earthquake August 19, 1966 2,394
Earthquake September 6, 1975 2,385
10 of first 10 disasters causing most casualties that
occured in Turkey between 1900 - 2008
Disaster Date # of people effected
Earthquake June 28, 1998 1,589,600
Earthquake August 17, 1999 1,358,953
Flood May 20, 1998 1,240,047
Earthquake September 30, 1983 834,137
Earthquake September 18, 1984 375,038
Earthquake October 18, 1984 375,035
Earthquake March 13, 1992 348,850
Earthquake July 22, 1967 326,073
Flood November 4, 1995 306,617
Earthquake May 1, 2003 290,520
8 of first 10 disasters effecting the most amount of
people that occured in Turkey between 1900 - 2008
Disaster Date Economic loss (US$)
Earthquake August 17, 1999 20 billions
Flood May 20, 1998 1 billion
Earthquake November 12, 1999 1 billion
Earthquake March 13, 1992 750 millions
Earthquake June 28, 1998 550 millions
Flood October 27, 2006 317 millions
Earthquake October 1, 1995 206 millions
Flood June 18, 1990 150 millions
Earthquake May 1, 2003 135 millions
Earthquake February 3, 2002 95 millions
7 of first 10 disasters causing the most economic loss
that occured in Turkey between 1900 - 2008
earthquake
Hurricane6%
Forest fire3%
Landslide6%
Flood26%
Change in temp.5%
Infectious diseases5%
Earthquake50%
# of incidents
Earthquake97%
casualties
Floods20%
Infectious diseases2%
Earthquake78%
# of effected people
Floods7%
Earthquake93%
damage
earthquake
?
be prepared
disaster postpre
preparedness
mitigation
disaster
recoveryresponse
disaster
mitigation
recoveryresponsepreparation
disaster
disasterm
anagement
0.m
onth
-1.m
onth
-2 m
onth
s
-3 m
onth
s
1 m
onth
2 m
onth
s
3 m
onth
s
4 m
onth
s
5 m
onth
s6
mon
ths
disaster
bridges, viaducts and tunnels are
critical elements of transportation
system
the importance of these structures are more vividly seen when emergency response process is disrupted due to loss of functionality of them.
what can be done?
strengtheningre-constructingdesign change
time
money
decision
cost-benefit analysis
linear regression modelsevaluation of safety levels of the bridge/tunnel/viaduct with respect to
damage, structural capacity and local geological characteristics
do-don’t do decision
multi-criteria modelsdetermining the sensitivity of the structure by taking different perspectives into
consideration
cost-benefit analysis
linear regression modelsevaluation of safety levels of the bridge/tunnel/viaduct with respect to
damage, structural capacity and local geological characteristics
do-don’t do decision
multi-criteria modelsdetermining the sensitivity of the structure by taking different perspectives into
consideration
Strategic Importance
Public safetybased on number of people using the structure during
rush hours
Strategic Importance
Public safetybased on number of people using the structure during
rush hours
Highway
Strategic Importance
Public safetybased on number of people using the structure during
rush hours
Highway
Urban roads
Strategic Importance
Public safetybased on number of people using the structure during
rush hours
Highway
Urban roads
Emergency actionloss of functionality of
preferred roads
Strategic Importance
Public safetybased on number of people using the structure during
rush hours
Highway
Urban roads
Emergency actionloss of functionality of
preferred roads
Firestation
Strategic Importance
Public safetybased on number of people using the structure during
rush hours
Highway
Urban roads
Emergency actionloss of functionality of
preferred roads
Firestation
Hospital
Strategic Importance
Public safetybased on number of people using the structure during
rush hours
Highway
Urban roads
Emergency actionloss of functionality of
preferred roads
Firestation
Hospital
Strategic Importance
Emergency rescue units
Public safetybased on number of people using the structure during
rush hours
Highway
Urban roads
Emergency actionloss of functionality of
preferred roads
Firestation
Hospital
Strategic Importance
Emergency rescue units
Military zone
Public safetybased on number of people using the structure during
rush hours
Highway
Urban roads
Emergency actionloss of functionality of
preferred roads
Firestation
Hospital
Long term economical impact
loss of work force
Strategic Importance
Emergency rescue units
Military zone
Public safetybased on number of people using the structure during
rush hours
Highway
Urban roads
Emergency actionloss of functionality of
preferred roads
Firestation
Hospital
Long term economical impact
loss of work force
Capacity of roads Potential usage
Strategic Importance
Emergency rescue units
Military zone
Public safetybased on number of people using the structure during
rush hours
Highway
Urban roads
Emergency actionloss of functionality of
preferred roads
Firestation
Hospital
Long term economical impact
loss of work force
Capacity of roads Potential usage
Average traffic Frequency of usage
Strategic Importance
Emergency rescue units
Military zone
Public safetybased on number of people using the structure during
rush hours
Highway
Urban roads
Emergency actionloss of functionality of
preferred roads
Firestation
Hospital
Long term economical impact
loss of work force
Capacity of roads Potential usage
Average traffic Frequency of usage
Strategic Importance
Emergency rescue units Alternative routes
Military zone
Public safetybased on number of people using the structure during
rush hours
Highway
Urban roads
Emergency actionloss of functionality of
preferred roads
Firestation
Hospital
Long term economical impact
loss of work force
Capacity of roads Potential usage
Average traffic Frequency of usage
Strategic Importance
Emergency rescue units Alternative routes
Military zone Multi-functionality Usage for different routes
Public safetybased on number of people using the structure during
rush hours
Highway
Urban roads
Emergency actionloss of functionality of
preferred roads
Firestation
Hospital
Long term economical impact
loss of work force
Capacity of roads Potential usage
Average traffic Frequency of usage
Interaction with other lifelines
decrease in quality of life
Strategic Importance
Emergency rescue units Alternative routes
Military zone Multi-functionality Usage for different routes
Public safetybased on number of people using the structure during
rush hours
Highway
Urban roads
Emergency actionloss of functionality of
preferred roads
Firestation
Hospital
Long term economical impact
loss of work force
Capacity of roads Potential usage
Average traffic Frequency of usage
Interaction with other lifelines
decrease in quality of life
Lifelines
Strategic Importance
Emergency rescue units Alternative routes
Military zone Multi-functionality Usage for different routes
Public safetybased on number of people using the structure during
rush hours
Highway
Urban roads
Emergency actionloss of functionality of
preferred roads
Firestation
Hospital
Long term economical impact
loss of work force
Capacity of roads Potential usage
Average traffic Frequency of usage
Interaction with other lifelines
decrease in quality of life
Lifelines
Transportation network
Strategic Importance
Emergency rescue units Alternative routes
Military zone Multi-functionality Usage for different routes
Public safetybased on number of people using the structure during
rush hours
Highway
Urban roads
Emergency actionloss of functionality of
preferred roads
Firestation
Hospital
Long term economical impact
loss of work force
Capacity of roads Potential usage
Average traffic Frequency of usage
Interaction with other lifelines
decrease in quality of life
Lifelines
Transportation network
Strategic Importance
Emergency rescue units Alternative routes
Military zone Multi-functionality Usage for different routes
Public safetybased on number of people using the structure during
rush hours
Highway
Urban roads
Emergency actionloss of functionality of
preferred roads
Firestation
Hospital
Long term economical impact
loss of work force
Capacity of roads Potential usage
Average traffic Frequency of usage
Interaction with other lifelines
decrease in quality of life
Lifelines
Transportation network
Strategic Importance
Emergency rescue units Alternative routes
Military zone Multi-functionality Usage for different routes
decision conference
Chief of planning of “Fire Department of Istanbul”
14 members of “Disaster Coordination Office”
2 Industrial Engineering Professors from Istanbul Technical University
1 Civil Engineering Professor from Istanbul Technical University
1 Civil Engineering Professor from Bosphorus University
5 water crossing bridges: 2 on bosphorus, 3 on golden horn
32 highway bridges, 17 viaducts, 3 tunnels under control of the municipality
Geographical Information Systems (GIS)
next step
www.ozaydin.info
www.ilkertopcu.org
www.slideshare.net/ozay