A methodology to factor Industrial Risk into

Land Use Planning Decisions:

Case Study of Haldia, India

Anandita Sengupta, Ph.D. StudentDebanjan Bandyopadhyay, Ph. D. Student

What is an industrial hazard?

Oil tankers on fire at the IOC depot at Sitapura Industrial Area in Jaipur

• Toxic Release

• Fire

• Explosion

More than 150 industrial clusters in India have

concentration of MAH industries;

Industries in most of these clusters have come up in an

unplanned manner over time;

Such areas have also witnessed high growth of

population over time;

Resultantly, the levels of risk to population from a

potential accident from MAH industries is very high;

The Background

There are various ways to reduce risk to population in

such MAH clusters:

Increase in levels of safety within industries through

better management systems, technology and

training to employees;

Efficient response and mitigation actions to quickly

attain control of a potential accident scenario;

Adoption of preventive measures through effective

land use zoning / planning in the vicinity of the MAH

industries;

Risk Control / Prevention Measures

In India, implementation of Land Use Plans have been

weak in Urban / Industrial areas;

Land Use Planning in industrial areas does not factor

industrial risk;

No regulatory requirement to incorporate industrial risk

as a consideration for Land Use Planning;

Planners do not have access to risk information ;

No standard criteria for risk assessment which can be

translated into Land Use Planning criteria;

The Concerns

How close would you authorise building a school near the two

GPL spheres?

How close would you like to live

near the two LNG spheres?

Industrial risk and Land use planning

To relate industrial risk with Land Use planning: Selection of appropriate accident scenarios; Deciding on risk assessment methodology to be

employed; Deciding on hazard end-points and risk tolerability

criteria; Basis for delineation or restrictions around existing and

new installations;

??

Industrial risk and Land use planning (contd…)

• Haldia town has developed in a haphazard and unplanned manner;

• The land-use is mixed and varied comprising of agricultural land, residential areas, villages and slum clusters, industrial areas, forests and greenbelts, ponds, wetlands and rivers;

• Some typical land-use patterns :

– Planned residential– Industrial– Unplanned mix of residential,

agricultural and rural

Case study town: Haldia

Changes in Landuse

Industrial development

1960s – rural landuse1970s – Port, IOC

Changes in Landuse

Industrial development

1980 & 90s – HPL, Exide, MCC PTA, IBP, HPCL, BPCL

Changes in Landuse

Industrial development

2000s and upcoming – IOC Petronas, Sanjana Cryogenics, Reliance, TATA Power, CESC, IOC refinery, Adani Wilmur, etc.

1976

1981

1991

Till 2006

Temporal changes in Population

Objectives and Approach

To draw up a semi-quantitative methodology to

calculate an area measure of societal risk, taking

into account different potential accident scenarios

from a cluster of MAH industries.

Aggregate Area Specific Risk= Hazard Potential x

Damage Factor

− Methodology applied on 100 x 100 M grid for the

entire Haldia planning area

Versatile approach, with scope for setting

benchmarks at each step by policy /regulatory

bodies

Methodology

Step 1 : Calculation of Hazard Intensity

at individual grid points as a result of

industry specific hazard scenarios:

- Setting up of reference scenarios

based on Maximum Credible Loss

Potential for each industry

Methodology

Step 1 : Continued

Defining levels of concerns for hazard intensity

- Explosion : 8psi, 3.5 psi and 1 psi

- Fire : 10KW/m2 (potentially lethal within 60sec. of

exposure), 5KW/m2 (second degree burns within

60 sec.), 2KW/m2 (pain within 60 sec)

- Toxicity – IDLH, I/2 IDLH and 1/3 IDLH

Step 2 : Estimate likelihood of hazard scenario based

on historical accident analysis data (specifically Purple

Book) and rank into classes 1, 2 & 3

Levels of Concern & Footprint generation

Reference Scenario: Toxic gas release (Ammonia)

210 mg/m3

100 mg/m3

50 mg/m3

Threshold value used

Methodology (contd…)

Step 3 : Calculation of Hazard

Potential (HP) at grid points as : HP =

Hazard Intensity x Hazard Probability

Hazard potential stands for a measure

of likelihood of hazard that may be

caused at a point x,y because of a

particular accident

Step 4 : Hazard Potential at a grid

point summed up for multiple scenarios

as : HPs = ∑ HPi

Step 5 : Hazard Potential categorized

into category high, medium & low.

Methodology

Step 6 : Calculation of Damage Factor

= pop density X quality of housing X

sensitivity

− pop density - calculated grid wise

based on decimetric interpolation

method

− quality of housing - predominant

nature of houses in grid - kutcha,

mixed, brick/concrete

− sensitivity - no. of sensitive

receptors present in grid

Aggregate Area Specific Risk= Hazard Potential X Damage Factor

Thank you!