a m e r o p a - asba · outlook (supply): nitrogen & urea (n) capacity in china 2000 -2021...
TRANSCRIPT
A M E R O P A
– Fertilizers – presentation for ASBA Cargo Conference
in Miami FL
28 Sept 2017
Overview
What are Chemical (N P K) Fertilizers?
Fertilizer Market Outlook to 2021 (Supply and Demand)
Global Fertilizer Trade
Conclusion
Q & A
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Fertilizers are materials of natural or synthetic origin that are applied to soils to provide nutrients essential to the growth of plants. Nutrients are taken out of the soil by the growing crops and need to be applied regularly.
Fertilizers are essential to meet worldwide food demand.
3 main macronutrients:
Nitrogen (N): growth and development of the plant
Phosphates (P): enhance photosynthesis process and development of plant roots and stems
Potash (K): increase plant’s resistance to crop disease and tolerance to drought, frost and salinity as well as seed maturation and fruit quality
Other secondary macronutrients (Calcium, Magnesium, Sulphur) and micronutrients (Copper, Iron, Zinc, Boron, Manganese, Nickel, etc.)
What are Fertilizers?
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What are Fertilizers?
Physical forms: solid particles, fluids, and pressurized gas (anhydrous ammonia). Important is that fertilizers can be spread or applied evenly in the field.
Packing: in bulk or bags
Application: By spreading machines in developed agricultural markets and by hand in lesser developed agricultural markets
Season: Main fertilizer season is at the beginning of the spring season in each hemisphere when crops start to grow. Certain crops can also be planted during autumn season of each hemisphere. In some equatorial countries the application season for fertilizers is all year round.
Main crops: wheat, corn, rice, fruits and vegetables, oilseeds
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Nitrogen Fertilizers are made from Ammonia. Ammonia (NH3) is produced by the Haber-Bosch process, an energy-intensive process with natural gas (or coal) supplying hydrogen and nitrogen deriving from the air.
Main Nitrogen Fertilizer Products: Urea (46% N), Ammonium Nitrate AN (34% N), liquid Urea-Ammonium Nitrate Solution UAN (32% N), Calcium Ammonium Nitrate CAN (27% N), Ammonium Sulphate AS (21% N)
What are Nitrogen Fertilizers?
Main Origins Main Destinations
Middle East India
China Latin America
FSU North America
North Africa Europe
S.E. Asia S.E. Asia
Urea – main Nitrogen fertilizer
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Phosphate Fertilizers are obtained by extraction from minerals, mostly referred to as phosphate rock.
Main Phosphate Fertilizer Products: Diammonium Phosphate DAP (18-46-0), Monoammonium Phosphate MAP (11-52-0 or 11-50-0), Single Superphosphate SSP (18-22% P2O5), Triple Superphosphate TSP (44-48% P2O5), Various NPKs
What are Phosphate Fertilizers?
Main Origins Main Destinations
China Latin America
North Africa India / Pakistan
North America Europe
FSU North America
Middle East Australia
Dark DAP (Diammonium Phosphate)
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Potash is a obtained by extraction of potassium minerals from the rock.
Main Potash Fertilizer Products: Potassium Chloride MOP (60-62% K2O), Potassium Sulfate SOP (48-52% K2O)
What are Potash Fertilizers?
Main Origins Main Destinations
Russia/Belarus China
Canada India
Israel Latin America
Germany North America
Spain Malaysia/Indonesia
Outlook (Supply): Nitrogen & Urea (N) Capacity in China 2000 -2021
Massive reduction of ammonia and urea capacity, but capacity in large plant segment still increasing….
Ammonia capacity static at 72 Mt NH3 from 2017 to 2021
20
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
+ 6 Mt
10
-6 Mt 0
S&M CL LRG CL LRG NG LRG OT
70 Mt N
60
50
40
30
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0 200
0
200
1
200
2
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
201
5
201
6
201
7
201
8
201
9
202
0
202
1
Large S&M Segment Mt urea
Urea capacity : -6 Mt and +6 Mt = Flat at ar. 74 Mt from 2016
Sources: CICCC, CNFIA, IFA Production and International Trade, June 2017
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Outlook (Supply): Urea (N) Capacity Developments to 2021
Urea : 55% of N production and 2/3 of
ammonia capacity
➢ 40 new units, of which 10 in China
➢ 2016-2021 : + 17 Mt (+8%)
➢ 226 Mt in 2021
➢ 90% in 2016-2018
➢ NA + EECA + EA + AF + LA
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
+1.4 Mt in EECA
-1.0 Mt in China
But more than 10 Mt of
potential capacity in the
pipeline after 2021 :
India, Nepal, USA, Africa,
Russia, Uzbekistan,
Malaysia, Iran……..
-6.0 Mt of China capacity
+2.6 Mt in Africa
+1.1 Mt in West Asia
210 208
225 226 226
+4.2 Mt in USA
+3.0 Mt in India
+3.0 Mt in Nigeria
+2.7 Mt in East Asia
Other increases (EECA,
LA)
217
223
Mt urea
Source: IFA Production and International Trade, June 2017
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Outlook (Supply): Phosphates (P) Capacity Developments to 2021
~25 new granulation units
Global PP capacity growing 16% from 96 Mt products in 2016 to 111 Mt in 2021
Mt Products
Morocco
9 Mt to 18 Mt
Saudi Arabia
3.5 Mt to 6 Mt
China
39 Mt to 42 Mt
Large planned expansions up to 2021
Plus a few on-going capacity projects
Source: IFA Production and International Trade, June 2017
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Outlook (Supply): Potash (K) Capacity Developments to 2021
Global Potash capacity growing 20% from 54.6 Mt K2O in 2016 to 65.5 Mt K2O in 2021
➢ Total Expansions: 12 Mt K2O
➢ Net Expansion : 11 Mt K2O
➢ Reduction in Europe
➢ 2/3 of increment in 2017-18
➢ New producers
➢ Turkmenistan 2017
➢ Russia 2018-20
Capacity 111.2 Mt products in 2021
Mt MOP eq
12.3 Mt MOPeq
NA 4.0
EECA 7.2
O
T
1.1
7.2 Mt MOPeq
EECA 6.0
OT 1.2
92
Source: IFA Production and International Trade, June 2017
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104,8 102,9 104,2 106,3 107,3 108,7 109,9 111,1 112,4
42,1 43,2 43,7 44,9 45,3 46,1 46,7 47,4 48,1
31,4 33,3 33,5 34,6 35,4 36,3 37,1 37,8 38,4
220
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
K20 P205 N
Outlook (Demand): Worldwide close to 200 Mt by 2021/22
Source: IFA Agriculture, May 2017
Evolution of Global Fertilizer Demand
Mt nutrients
Average Annual Change
Base Year 2021/22
N +1.2% p.a.
P2O5 +1.5% p.a.
K2O +2.1% p.a.
Total +1.5% p.a.
199 Base year 182
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-1 0 1 2 3 4 5
Lat. Am. & Carib.
South Asia
East Asia
Africa
E. Eur. & C. Asia
North America
West Asia
Oceania
W. & C. Europe
N P2O5 K2O
Outlook (Demand): Lat.Am., Africa and E.Eur.&C.Asia Increasingly Influent
Anticipated Regional Volume Expansion by 2021/22 Anticipated Relative Regional Growth by 2021/22
Source: IFA Agric ulture, M ay 2017
Mt nutrients Source: IFA Agriculture, May 2017
0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
Africa
E. Eur. & C. Asia
Lat. Am. & Carib.
South Asia
West Asia
East Asia
Oceania
North America
W. & C. Europe
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Outlook (Supply & Demand): 2016 - 2021
Nitrogen Mt N
Supply: +1.8% pa
Demand: +1.2% pa
Potential surplus rising up to 10 Mt N
154
160 163
166 167 167
146 148 150 152
154 156
166
130
140
150
160
170
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
P Acid Mt P2O5
Supply: +2.4% pa
Demand: +1.8% pa
Potential surplus nearly doubling
47 48
50 50 51 52
45 46 47
47 48 49
51
40
45
50
55
60
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Potassium Mt K O 2
Supply: +3.8% pa
Demand: +2.2% pa
Potential surplus more than doubling
44 46
49 52 52
53
41 42 43
44 45 46
52
60
55
50
45
40
35
30 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Sources: IFA Agriculture, IFA Production and International Trade, June 2017
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Global Fertilizer Trade: Regional Nutrient Balances
in Million metric tons nutrient, 2016
2.7
-3.5
-1.0
10.4
-7.5
-1.6 -1.8
15.8
-1.3
5.8
2.1
-5.0
1.9
-6.0
3.3
-2.1
2.5
-0.5 -0.8
11.4
-5.5
3.2
-3.4
-7.9
0.2
11.8
-0.4
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
N
P
K
Africa
North America
Latin America
South Asia
East Europe/ Central Asia
Oceania
West Asia
East Asia West/
Central Europe
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Global Fertilizer Trade: Flow Map
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Global Fertilizer Trade in Relation to Production in 2016
In Mmt Ammonia Urea AS Nitrates UAN Phosphate Potash
Capacity* 217.7 220.3 30.6 92.1 37.0 80.0 110
Production* 181.3 177.8 24.6 62.1 21.4 65.4 64.5
Trade* 18.3 49.7 12.3 17.9 7.3 29.3 47.6
Seaborn** 36.4 21.3 29.8
Source: * IFA / ** Clarksons Research Aug-17
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Global Fertilizer Trade: Seaborn (Dry Bulk)
Source: Clarksons Research, Aug-17 – Dry Bulk Trade Outlook, Volume 23., No. 8, August-2017
In Mmt 2014 2015 2016 exp.2017 Growth 16/17
Urea 38.5 39.2 36.4 39.5 8%
Phosphates 20.3 20.5 21.3 22.2 4%
Potash 34.5 31.7 29.8 33.2 12%
Sulphur 30.8 33.4 33.7 33.7 0%
Phosphate Rock 29.5 29.8 28.8 31.7 10%
Total Fertilizers 153.6 154.6 150.0 160.3 7%
For Comparison:
Total Minor Bulk trade in 2016: 1,864 Mmt and expected to grow 2% in 2017 to 1,899 Mmt
Total Major Bulk trade in 2016: 3,035 Mmt and expected to grow 5% in 2017 to 3,180 Mmt
(out of which Grains are 2016: 481 Mmt and expected to grow 6% in 2017 to 510 Mmt)
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Conclusion
Seaborn Fertilizer Trade jump of 7% (10 Mmt) this year is exceptional
Supply driven Fertilizer Market with slower growth (av. 1.5%) towards 2021
Different Global Fertilizer trading pattern emerge due to:
- even more capacity coming on stream over next two years
- North America still a net importer on N Fertilizers but much less volume
- strategic aim of some countries to become self-sufficient (e.g. India)
- China may change from an exporter to a net importer on N Fertilizers
Traditional Trade Routes for Seaborn Fertilizers are changing
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