a listless quarter -...

INSTITUTIONAL EQUITY RESEARCH

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Q1FY18 Results Preview

A listless quarter INDIA | Result Preview

12 July 2017

Q1FY18 results are likely to be sluggish because of channel destocking in consumer‐facing sectors and sluggish growth in pharma, IT, and telecom – which are facing significant pricing headwinds. We expect our coverage’s sales/EBIDTA/PAT to grow by 7%/1%/3% yoy. Profit growth will be driven by: • Low base in financials (SBI), capital goods, and metals. • Ex‐financials, we see PAT at ‐5% yoy, indicating pressure on other sectors. • Pricing is the savior of the consumer sector, which is seeing sluggish volume growth

and GST‐related destocking. Our expectations from this results season:

Base‐effect in banks, capital goods, and metals, but operating metrics are not inspiring: While headline earnings growth for banking will appear strong because of SBI’s low base, sluggish credit offtake (primarily because of industrial credit) will mean poor operating performance. We expect our coverage’s NII growth at 7% yoy. Slippages are likely to be lower qoq, but recovery will be weak in NPA accounts. Our top result‐led buys from the banking space are ICICI Bank, BOB, and Indian Bank. Capital goods will see strong earnings growth because of a low base (L&T, BHEL) but order inflows are likely to remain muted. Other positive results plays include L&T and VA Tech Wabag. Metals will see a qoq fall in volumes and realisations, but earnings growth will be strong yoy helped by a low base. GST‐related destocking pressures on consumer sectors; margin pressure on auto, telcos: While tertiary sales have normalised after taking a significant demonetisation hit, primary sales for FMCG and consumer durables continue to be sluggish because of channel destocking. Pricing will be the revenue driver for FMCG while earnings growth will be helped by ITC, Titan (base effect), and GCPL. Telecom will continue to see pricing pressure, but it should see some stability in terms of revenues. Bharti Airtel and Bharti Infratel should report reasonable numbers in this challenging environment. Automobiles will see subdued margins, and earnings growth will be weak because of Tata Motors, Ashok Leyland, and Bajaj Auto. Maruti’s revenue growth will be strong, but margins will be weak. Tyres will be hit by GST implementation leading to subdued earnings. Pharma and IT will see significant growth pressures: Pharma will report one of its weakest quarters in recent history led by pricing pressures in US generics and GST impact on domestic business. Our pharma universe is likely to see a 23% decline in earnings, impacted by a 300bps decline in margins. However, we expect some recovery for companies such as Dr Reddy’s, which was seeing a weak base and business stabilising. IT will see the impact of rupee appreciation; we expect all large IT companies to report qoq constant‐currency growth of 2% or less. Apart from sluggish revenue growth, we expect earnings growth for all the large companies to decline yoy. Infrastructure and specialty chemicals to deliver reasonable earnings growth: Specialty chemicals will see double‐digit revenue growth, but margins are likely to be sluggish because of rising input costs. Our top results plays are Meghmani Organics and Vinati Organics. Infrastructure should see a rebound in traffic growth after demonetisation, but weak order book will play spoilsport for a few companies. Our key results plays from this space are NCC and IRB Infra.

PAT growth distribution: Q1FY18

Source: PhillipCapital India Research Estimates

Naveen Kulkarni, CFA, FRM (+ 9122 6246 4122) [email protected]

PhillipCapital India Research

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Telecom

Automobiles

Pharma

Infrastructure

IT Services

PC ‐ Universe

Specailty Chemicals

FMCG

NBFC

Oil & Gas

Midcap

Cement

Media

Metals

Capital Goods

Banks

PAT ‐ YoY


Q1FY18 RESULTS PREVIEW

Earnings estimates _______________ Revenue _______________ _______________ EBITDA ________________ _________________ PAT _________________Sector (Rs bn) Q1FY18E Q4FY17 QoQ, % Q1FY17 YoY, % Q1FY18E Q4FY17 QoQ, % Q1FY17 YoY, % Q1FY18E Q4FY17 QoQ, % Q1FY17 YoY, %

Automobiles 1,142 1,348 (15) 1,104 3 131 176 (25) 145 (10) 49 91 (46) 75 (34) Capital Goods 463 676 (32) 420 10 39 85 (54) 32 23 20 60 (66) 14 40 Banks 624 448 39 573 9 490 425 15 476 3 150 89 69 105 43 NBFC 64 70 (8) 56 15 46 51 (10) 40 16 21 15 40 19 8 FMCG 416 417 (0) 390 7 95 94 1 89 7 65 64 1 60 8 Infrastructure 103 112 (8) 99 4 29 30 (5) 27 5 12 17 (31) 13 (9) IT Services 842 857 (2) 831 1 168 180 (7) 174 (4) 147 159 (7) 151 (3) Metals 860 1,046 (18) 720 20 150 228 (34) 127 18 37 89 (58) 30 23 Telecom 376 379 (1) 427 (12) 117 121 (4) 147 (21) 8 4 120 25 (66) Media 42 41 2 43 (2) 12 10 12 12 (0) 6 17 (65) 5 16 Pharma 298 298 (0) 305 (2) 67 65 2 78 (14) 38 45 (15) 50 (23) Cement 220 213 3 183 20 47 36 28 41 15 24 18 32 22 12 Specialty Chemicals 38 38 2 34 11 7 6 20 7 3 4 3 17 3 4 Midcap 101 106 (4) 87 17 13 13 (1) 12 9 7 8 (7) 7 10 Oil & Gas 857 950 (10) 740 16 139 138 1 130 7 89 89 (0) 81 10 PC - Universe 6,447 7,000 (7.9) 6,012 7.2 1,549 1,660 (6.7) 1,536 0.8 679 769 (11.8) 660 2.8 PC - Uni. (Ex. BFSI) 5,759 6,482 (11.1) 5,383 7.0 1,013 1,183 (14.4) 1,020 (0.7) 507 665 (23.7) 536 (5.3) Sector‐wise contribution to revenue and PAT

Revenue, EBITDA, PAT growth (yoy)

Source: PhillipCapital India Research Estimates

Automobiles, 18%

Capital Goods, 7%

Banks, 10%

NBFC, 1%

FMCG, 6%

Infrastructure, 2%

IT Services, 13%

Metals, 13%

Telecom, 6%

Media, 1%

Pharma, 5%

Cement, 3%

Specailty Chemicals,

1%

Midcap, 2% Oil & Gas, 13%

Q1FY18 RevenueAutomobiles,

7%Capital

Goods, 3%

Banks, 22%

NBFC, 3%

FMCG, 10%Infrastructur

e, 2%

IT Services, 22%

Metals, 5%

Telecom, 1%

Media, 1%

Pharma, 6%

Cement, 4%

Specailty Chemicals,

1%

Midcap, 1%Oil & Gas,

13%

Q1FY18 PAT

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60 Revenue (Rs mn) EBITDA (Rs mn) PAT (Rs mn)



Key sector highlights Sector Key observations / outlook Earnings plays Auto Sequential margin improvement across all domestic OEMs led by benign raw

material prices and favourable currency Maruti Suzuki and Bajaj Auto

Sluggish quarter for Tata Motors due to JLR’s weak product/geography mix Currency translation impact for players with significant euro exposure to be

negative

Banking Weak credit growth will keep pressure on NII growth, especially for PSU banks Reduction in base rate and interest reversal to keep NIMs under pressure Asset quality to remain under pressure as slippages from restructured loans

continue to flow

FMCG Inventory liquidation in channels due to GST implementation (‐) All FMCG ‐ Higher impact on Colgate, Dabur, Emami, Marico, Bajaj Corp

Lower hike in excise duty on cigarettes during budget FY18 (+) ITC Implementation of price hikes across categories (+) All FMCG ‐ Highest impact on Asian Paints, HUL,

and Britannia Capital Goods Moderate growth in revenue on a low base last year Positive: Voltas, Wabag, Cummins, L&T EBITDA margins to improve yoy on operating leverage and lower provisioning Negative: NA IT Services Muted expectations ‐ positive CC impact Negative: TechM, MindTree Margins to decline for most of the companies due to INR appreciation, visa cost Positive: LTTS Guidance by Infosys and Wipro will be keenly watched Management commentary on CY17 client budgets will be of utmost importance Infrastructure Decent revenue growth for most companies ‐ growth for few hurt by weak

orderbook Negative: PNC Infra, ITD Cementation

Traffic growth for BOT companies to show sharp rebound after demonetisation Positive: HCC, NCC, IRB Infra Margins to remain stable – yoy and qoq Earnings to decline in few companies due to weak orderbook and/or exceptional

items related to margins/tax

Media After strong recovery in April and May, ad revenue for the sector impacted by slowdown in FMCG ad spend in June

Zee to post 9% ad‐revenue growth (LTL basis) while print media players will post flattish ad revenue growth

Dish TV will continue to post sluggish operating KPIs and we estimate net subscriber addition of 150,000 with an ARPU of Rs 142

Subscription revenue for broadcasting companies to increase in high single digits as monetisation of Das‐3 continues

Circulation revenue for print companies will increase in low single digits, primarily driven by an increase in yield

Pharmaceuticals We estimate flat growth for our coverage universe due to high base effect of exclusivity launches in Q1FY18 and continuing pricing pressure in the US business

Positive GNP IN: Healthy US sales (44% CC/INR growth) supported by gZetia sales will help overall earnings to grow by 36%

Domestic formulations will be hurt by GST transition Negative CIPLA IN: No major improvement in US sales and muted performance in domestic businesses will lead to a 57% decline in earnings

Estimate 24% earnings decline for our coverage on high yoy base and GST impact Negative SUNP IN: Overall weak performance and high base will lead to 45% fall in earnings

Specialty Chem 11% growth led by steady volume and value growth Positive MEGH: Better product mix and recovery in operating performance will help maintain growth

Rising crude prices and pricing pressure in a leading segment will have a mild negative impact on margins across the sector

Positive Vinati: Recovery in high margin ATBS business will boost profitability

PAT growth of 5% Telecom After two quarters of 5‐6% sequential revenue decline, we expect telecom service

providers to report a moderation in the revenue decline at 1‐2% Top pick: Bharti

Realisations (both data and voice) will continue to remain under pressure due to higher adoptions of bundled plans and JIO's aggressive tariff structure

EBITDA margins to decline qoq due to higher incidence of SG&A and network cost Bharti Infratel’s tenancy addition will be driven by fresh demand by JIO, but its

margins will decline qoq due to lower energy spreads

Source: PhillipCapital India Research



Automobiles Earnings estimates (Rs mn) Jun‐17E Mar‐17 qoq (%) Jun‐16 yoy (%) Key expectations Maruti Suzuki

• Revenue growth led by 13% volume growth

• Qoq fall in EBITDA margins due to additional costs related to its Gujarat plant

Revenues 174538 183334 ‐4.8% 149273 16.9%EBITDA 23705 25604 ‐7.4% 22157 7.0%EBITDA margin (%) 13.6% 14.0% 14.8%PAT 15270 17087 ‐10.6% 14862 2.7%EPS (Rs) 61 61 0.0% 61 0.0%JLR

• Volumes flat yoy

• 340bps qoq fall in EBITDA margin due to negative operating leverage

Revenues 5515 7268 ‐24.1% 5461 1.0%EBITDA 611 1057 ‐42.2% 672 ‐9.0%EBITDA margin (%) 11.1% 14.5% 12.3%PAT 151 541 ‐72.1% 253 ‐40.3%EPS (Rs) Tata Motors

• Decline in revenue led by 11% yoy fall in standalone volume and 8% realisation growth

• Margin down 300bps qoq on weak volumes

Revenues 100627 135867 ‐25.9% 103196 ‐2.5%EBITDA 1126 5552 ‐79.7% 6905 ‐83.7%EBITDA margin (%) 1.1% 4.1% 6.7%PAT ‐11367 ‐8300 36.9% 258 ‐4514.2%EPS (Rs) ‐4 ‐3 0Mahindra & Mahindra

• Total volume to rise 3% yoy (+10% tractors, ‐4% automotive)

• Margins +260bps qoq on increase in tractor segment contribution

Revenues 107885 106121 1.7% 105247 2.5%EBITDA 15390 12368 24.4% 14885 3.4%EBITDA margin (%) 14.3% 11.7% 14.1%PAT 8791 8419 4.4% 9306 ‐5.5%EPS (Rs) 15 14 4.4% 16 ‐5.5%Ashok Leyland

• Revenue to decline 6% yoy led by a 9% volume drop • EBITDA margin contracted 300bps qoq on weak volumes

Revenues 39980 66179 ‐39.6% 42588 ‐6.1%EBITDA 2895 7299 ‐60.3% 4763 ‐39.2%EBITDA margin (%) 7.2% 11.0% 11.2%PAT 1036 4762 ‐78.2% 2908 ‐64.4%EPS (Rs) 0.4 1.7 ‐78.2% 1.0 ‐64.4%Bajaj Auto

• Yoy revenue decline led by volumes • 70bps qoq fall in margins on weak mix and operating‐leverage hit

Revenues 54354 48973 11.0% 57480 ‐5.4%EBITDA 10654 9060 17.6% 11763 ‐9.4%EBITDA margin (%) 19.6% 18.5% 20.5%PAT 9156 8018 14.2% 9784 ‐6.4%EPS (Rs) 32 28 14.2% 34 ‐6.4%Hero MotoCorp

• Revenue growth led by 6% yoy volume growth

• Margins down 110bps yoy led by gross margin pressure

Revenues 78067 69152 12.9% 73989 5.5%EBITDA 12367 9576 29.1% 12301 0.5%EBITDA margin (%) 15.8% 13.8% 16.6%PAT 8781 7178 22.3% 8831 ‐0.6%EPS (Rs) 44 36 22.3% 44 ‐0.6%Apollo Tyres

• Volumes to be weak as GST led to channel destocking. Build price hike of 7% yoy.

• 200bps qoq decline in EBITDA margin due to higher‐priced RM inventory and weak volumes

Revenues 35535 33256 6.9% 33041 7.5%EBITDA 3198 3699 ‐13.5% 5388 ‐40.6%EBITDA margin (%) 9.0% 11.1% 16.3%PAT 1840 2281 ‐19.3% 3147 ‐41.5%EPS (Rs) 4 5 ‐19.4% 6 ‐41.5%Bharat Forge

• Yoy revenue growth led by a pick up in exports • Margins to be 110bps higher yoy led by operating leverage

Revenues 10822 11257 ‐3.9% 9044 19.7%EBITDA 3036 3199 ‐5.1% 2444 24.2%EBITDA margin (%) 28.1% 28.4% 27.0%PAT 1584 1800 ‐12.0% 1221 29.7%EPS (Rs) 7 8 ‐12.0% 5 29.7%Mahindra CIE

• Revenue of European business to grow 3% yoy, but BillForge consolidation will lead to 17% yoy growth in reported revenue

• European business to improve 20bps qoq

Revenues 16010 15212 5.2% 13721 16.7%EBITDA 2080 1946 6.9% 1533 35.7%EBITDA margin (%) 13.0% 12.8% 11.2%



(Rs mn) Jun‐17E Mar‐17 qoq (%) Jun‐16 yoy (%) Key expectations Ceat

• Revenue growth largely led by price action as GST meant slower sales• EBITDA margins to contract 350bps qoq led by higher cost inventory

and weak volumes

Revenues 15839 14718 7.6% 14703 7.7%EBITDA 868 1325 ‐34.5% 1854 ‐53.2%EBITDA margin (%) 5.5% 9.0% 12.6%PAT 161 609 ‐73.6% 931 ‐82.7%EPS (Rs) 4 15 ‐73.6% 23 ‐82.7%Escorts

• Strong revenue growth led by 7% tractor volume growth

• Margins to improve 120bps qoq led by strong volumes

Revenues 11548 10223 13.0% 10514 9.8%EBITDA 976 744 31.3% 878 11.3%EBITDA margin (%) 8.5% 7.3% 8.3%PAT 601 444 35.3% 533 12.8%EPS (Rs) 5 4 35.3% 4 12.8%

Source: Company, PhillipCapital India Research



Banking Earnings estimates (Rs mn) Jun‐17E Mar‐17 qoq (%) Jun‐16 yoy (%) Key expectations Andhra Bank

• NII to fall qoq due to no one‐off item. • Fee income to grow in line with balance sheet; treasury contribution

to remain healthy • Fresh slippage to moderate meaningfully. Slippage at Rs 20bn vs. Rs

31bn in Q4

Net Interest income 13,707 16,850 ‐18.7% 12,692 8.0%Pre‐provision Profit 9,727 14,344 ‐32.2% 9,999 ‐2.7%PAT 427 350 21.9% 311 37.4%NIM (%) 3.30 3.59 ‐0.29 2.90 0.40EPS (Rs) 0.6 0.5 21.9% 0.5 37.4%GNPA% 12.8 12.3 0.6 10.3 2.5NNPA% 7.8 7.6 0.2 6.2 1.6Slippages 20000 30665.4 ‐34.8% 35244.1 ‐43.3%Axis Bank

• NII to rise qoq due to above‐industry‐average credit growth • Expect a slippage of Rs 40bn in Q1FY18 vs. Rs 48bn in Q4FY17 • Credit costs to remain elevated due to increase in NPAs from watch list

Net Interest income 48,337 47,288 2.2% 45,175 7.0%Pre‐provision Profit 42,008 43,749 ‐4.0% 44,699 ‐6.0%PAT 11,045 12,253 ‐9.9% 15,561 ‐29.0%NIM (%) 3.65 3.83 ‐0.18 3.79 ‐0.14EPS (Rs) 4.6 5.1 ‐9.9% 6.5 ‐29.2%GNPA% 5.8 5.0 0.7 2.5 3.2NNPA% 2.5 2.1 0.4 1.1 1.4Slippages 40000 48110 ‐16.9% 36300 10.2%Bank of Baroda

• Overseas credit to grow qoq after reduction for five straight quarters. Overall book to see qoq growth as well

• Slippage of Rs 30bn vs. Rs 40bn provides some respite • NIM to improve as credit‐to‐deposit ratio sees some improvement

Net Interest income 34,385 35,819 ‐4.0% 33,711 2.0%Pre‐provision Profit 26,009 30,202 ‐13.9% 26,695 ‐2.6%PAT 4,956 1,547 220.3% 4,234 17.0%NIM (%) 2.16 2.19 ‐0.03 2.26 ‐0.10EPS (Rs) 2.1 0.7 220.3% 1.8 17.0%GNPA% 10.2 10.5 ‐0.2 11.2 ‐0.9NNPA% 4.5 4.7 ‐0.2 5.7 ‐1.3Slippages 35,000 40,770 ‐14.2% 60,960 ‐42.6%Bank of India

• NII to decline qoq due to weak credit growth and no one‐off item • NPA provisions to remain high due to higher asset‐quality stress – will

impact profitability

Net Interest income 28,862 34,686 ‐16.8% 27,752 4.0%Pre‐provision Profit 19,562 31,275 ‐37.5% 16,539 18.3%PAT 1,093 (10,455) ‐110.5% (7,414) ‐NIM (%) 2.20 2.39 ‐0.19 2.20 0.00EPS (Rs) 1.0 (9.9) ‐110.5% (7.9) ‐GNPA% 12.8 13.2 ‐0.4 13.4 ‐0.5NNPA% 6.5 6.9 ‐0.4 7.8 ‐1.3Slippages 30,000 69,150.0 ‐56.6% 62,230 ‐51.8%Canara Bank

• NII weak due to poor credit growth • Non‐interest income will be driven by strong treasury gains of Rs

4.29bn due to stake sale in CARE rating • Asset quality to remain under pressure due to poor recovery and

upgrades

Net Interest income 25,497 27,082 ‐5.9% 23,074 10.5%Pre‐provision Profit 22,569 29,729 ‐24.1% 18,189 24.1%PAT 2,490 2,142 16.2% 2,290 8.7%NIM (%) 2.25 2.23 0.02 2.15 0.10EPS (Rs) 4.2 3.6 16.2% 4.2 ‐1.1%GNPA% 9.9 9.6 0.3 9.7 0.2NNPA% 6.4 6.3 0.1 6.7 ‐0.2Slippages 30,000 31,000 ‐3.2% 38,780 ‐22.6%DCB Bank

• Credit off‐take will remain strong leading to strong NII growth • NIM to remain stable as benefit of low‐cost fund continues • Asset quality likely to remain stable. Better recovery in NPA accounts.

Net Interest income 2,231 2,203 1.3% 1,770 26.0%Pre‐provision Profit 1,111 1,153 ‐3.7% 927 19.8%PAT 561 529 6.1% 470 19.3%NIM (%) 4.10 4.04 0.06 4.05 0.05EPS (Rs) 1.8 1.9 ‐1.4% 1.7 10.6%GNPA% 1.6 1.6 0.0 1.7 ‐0.1NNPA% 0.8 0.8 0.0 0.9 ‐0.1Slippages 600 746 ‐19.6% 578 3.8%



(Rs mn) Jun‐17E Mar‐17 qoq (%) Jun‐16 yoy (%) Key expectations HDFC Bank

• Traction in NII continues, driven by credit growth • Improvement in cost‐to‐income ratio to drive operating profit • Decline in credit‐cost (qoq) driven by recovery

Net Interest income 92,210 90,551 1.8% 77,814 18.5%Pre‐provision Profit 68,331 72,792 ‐6.1% 58,192 17.4%PAT 39,085 39,899 ‐2.0% 32,389 20.7%NIM (%) 4.30 4.30 0 4.40 ‐0.10EPS (Rs) 15.3 15.6 ‐2.0% 12.8 19.4%GNPA% 1.0 1.1 0.0 1.0 0.0NNPA% 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.3 0.0Slippages 22,013 23,627 ‐6.8% 17,610 25.0%ICICI Bank

• Domestic‐driven credit growth to provide some respite to weak NII. Declining NIM trajectory continues due to non‐accrual on interest on NPA a/c.

• Slippages to remain elevated at ~Rs 70bn • Watch list to see significant reduction due to slippage • Some recovery in the watch list is certain due to the conclusion of a

deal

Net Interest income 56,486 59,622 ‐5.3% 51,585 9.5%Pre‐provision Profit 50,516 51,120 ‐1.2% 52,147 ‐3.1%PAT 22,785 20,246 12.5% 22,324 2.1%

NIM (%) 3.30 3.57 ‐0.27 3.16 0.14

EPS (Rs) 3.6 3.5 2.3% 3.8 ‐7.3%

GNPA% 9.3 8.7 0.6 5.9 3.5

NNPA% 5.7 5.4 0.2 3.4 2.3

Slippages 70,000 112,890 ‐38.0% 82,490 ‐15.1%Indian Bank

• RAM to remain a focus area for growth • Credit to remain flat yoy, but NIM to improve due to decline in cost

of deposit. Credit to see improvement qoq • Moderating trend in slippages to continue • Asset quality to remain stable

Net Interest income 13,723 13,849 ‐0.9% 12,363 11.0%Pre‐provision Profit 10,099 10,701 ‐5.6% 9,032 11.8%PAT 3,665 3,197 14.6% 3,074 19.2%NIM (%) 2.65 2.70 ‐0.1 2.47 0.18EPS (Rs) 7.6 6.7 14.6% 6.4 19.2%GNPA% 7.7 7.5 0.2 7.0 0.7NNPA% 4.3 4.4 ‐0.1 4.5 ‐0.2Slippages 9,100 9,600 ‐5.2% 8,250 10.3%Indusind Bank

• Loan growth to surpass industry growth by huge margin • Declining cost of funds to boost NIM • Collection efficiency across retail products was satisfactory

Net Interest income 17,227 16,675 3.3% 13,564 27.0%Pre‐provision Profit 15,343 15,722 ‐2.4% 12,338 24.4%PAT 8,085 7,516 7.6% 6,614 22.2%NIM (%) 4.00 4.00 0 3.97 0.03EPS (Rs) 13.5 12.6 7.7% 11.1 21.9%GNPA% 1.0 0.93 0.1 0.91 0.10NNPA% 0.4 0.39 0.0 0.38 0.02Slippages 3,500 6,340 ‐44.8% 8,610 ‐59.3%OBC

• NII to increase qoq. One‐time interest reversal in Q4 was Rs 2.2bn • Fee income to remain weak while treasury gains will drive non‐

interest income • Asset quality to show improvement qoq

Net Interest income 13,250 13,073 1.4% 12,046 10.0%Pre‐provision Profit 10,508 10,171 3.3% 9,171 14.6%PAT 1,055 (12,180) ‐108.7% 1,007 4.8%NIM (%) 2.50 2.54 ‐0.04 2.36 0.14EPS (Rs) 3.0 (35.2) ‐108.7% 2.9 4.8%GNPA% 13.2 13.7 ‐0.5 11.5 1.7NNPA% 8.0 9.0 ‐0.9 8.1 ‐0.1Slippages 25,000 39,129 ‐36.1% 34,638 ‐27.8%Punjab National Bank

• NII to see growth qoq / yoy due to a low base. NIM to improve qoq • Loan book to start growing after some moderation in previous

quarters • Recovery to surpass slippage leading to reduction in gross and net NPA.

Slippage to be Rs 60bn

Net Interest income 37,360 36,835 1.4% 36,990 1.0%Pre‐provision Profit 32,302 62,318 ‐48.2% 32,746 ‐1.4%PAT 3,711 2,619 41.7% 3,064 21.1%NIM (%) 2.40 2.38 0.0 2.45 ‐0.05EPS (Rs) 1.7 1.2 41.7% 1.6 11.8%GNPA% 12.2 12.5 ‐0.4 13.8 ‐1.6NNPA% 7.4 7.8 ‐0.4 9.2 ‐1.8Slippages 60,000 75,000 ‐20.0% 92,280 ‐35.0%State Bank of India

• Q1 results would represent the merged entity. We do not have Q4 comparable numbers as SBI did not disclose merged Q4 numbers

• NIM to increase yoy as subsidiary NIM declined due to high slippage • Provision to decline yoy, thus driving profitability • Slippage to be Rs 110‐130bn

Net Interest income 191,820 180,963 6.0%Pre‐provision Profit 140,147 138,903 0.9%PAT 33,860 5,028 573.4%NIM (%) 2.70 2.55 0.15EPS (Rs) 3.9 0.6GNPA% 9.4 7.6 1.8NNPA% 5.1 4.4 0.7



(Rs mn) Jun‐17E Mar‐17 qoq (%) Jun‐16 yoy (%) Key expectations Union Bank

• Loan growth to improve, but NIM to remain flat yoy/qoq • Non‐interest income to be driven by treasury gains • See slippage at Rs 27bn; no major development in recovery • Gross and net non‐performing ratios to increase

Net Interest income 23,125 23,870 ‐3.1% 21,023 10.0%Pre‐provision Profit 17,612 21,341 ‐17.5% 16,251 8.4%PAT 1,750 1,082 61.7% 1,663 5.2%NIM (%) 2.30 2.27 0.03 2.28 0.02EPS (Rs) 2.5 1.6 61.7% 2.4 5.2%GNPA% 11.7 11.2 0.5 10.2 1.5NNPA% 6.8 6.6 0.3 6.2 0.7Slippages 27,000 29,510 ‐8.5% 36,030 ‐25.1%HDFC Limited

• Yoy provision higher by Rs 2.7bn due to exceptional gain • Cost of funds to decline, aiding NIM • Q1 PAT includes profit on sale of stake in general insurance business.

Excluding one‐offs, PAT growth at 12% yoy

Net Interest income 25,907 29,927 ‐13.4% 22,831 13.5%Pre‐provision Profit 24,228 30,862 ‐21.5% 30,397 ‐20.3%PAT 15,855 20,442 ‐22.4% 14,211 11.6%NIM (%) 3.85 4.10 ‐0.25 3.80 0.05EPS (Rs) 10.0 12.9 ‐22.4% 11.8 ‐15.7%Shriram Transport Fin

• Moderation in NII growth led by lower disbursement • Operating profit growth to trend in line with top‐line growth • Subdued earnings growth due to credit cost staying elevated • NIMS to contract due to rising proportion of lower vintage vehicles

Net Interest income 13,956 14,087 ‐0.90% 13,461 3.70%Pre‐provision Profit 11,309 11,424 ‐1.00% 10,287 9.90%PAT 3,816 1,497 155.00% 3,741 2.00%NIM (%) 7 7.3 ‐0.24 7.3 ‐0.27EPS (Rs) 16.8 6.6 155.00% 16.5 2.00%LIC Housing Finance

• Last year’s provision is high due to ageing effect of corporate NPA • Loan growth strong at 14% yoy • NIM to improve marginally as cost of funds will decline more than

yield on loans • Asset quality likely to remain stable

Net Interest income 10,153 10,396 ‐2.3% 8,245 23.1%Pre‐provision Profit 9,023 8,954 0.8% 7,399 22.0%PAT 5,683 5,292 7.4% 4,078 39.3%NIM (%) 2.85 2.97 ‐0.12 2.61 0.24EPS (Rs) 11.3 10.5 7.4% 8.1 39.3%Repco Home Finance

• Loan growth to improve a bit, but will remain lower than its March average due to weak quarter

• NIM to remain stable, as declining cost of funds will compensate for lower yields on loans

• GNPA to be under pressure due to a seasonally weak quarter

Net Interest income 976.9 1,028.4 ‐5.0% 839.7 16.3%Pre‐provision Profit 2,773.2 2,735.3 1.4% 2,468.0 12.4%PAT 467.7 505.9 ‐7.6% 395.3 18.3%NIM (%) 4.4 4.7 ‐0.31 4.3 0.08EPS (Rs) 7.5 8.1 ‐7.3% 6.3 18.7%Bharat Financial Incl.

• Disbursement at 8% yoy, but gross loan portfolio up 17% to Rs 90bn • We see 3% GNPA, and given the provision requirement, credit cost is

likely to erode earnings

Net Interest income 2,217 1,960 13.1% 2,250 ‐1.5%Pre‐provision Profit 1,232 995 23.8% 1,514 ‐18.7%PAT 32 (2,355) ‐101.3% 2,364 ‐98.7%NIM (%) 7.76 7.32 0.4 10.08 ‐2.32EPS (Rs) 0.2 (17.1) ‐101.3% 18.6 ‐98.8%Cholamandalam Fin.

• Stable AUM growth + 25bps improvement in NIMs to drive growth • With a relatively higher opex increase, op growth to be marginally

lower • Elevated provisioning in LAP / vehicle portfolio to keep earnings

growth at sub 15% • NIMs to see a 25bps improvement

Net Interest income 6,614 6,594 0.30% 5,536 19.50%Pre‐provision Profit 3,863 3,905 ‐1.10% 3,341 15.60%PAT 1,890 2,196 ‐13.90% 1,657 14.00%NIM (%) 7.4 7.7 ‐0.28 7.2 0.25

EPS (Rs) 12.1 14 ‐13.90% 10.6 13.90%

Mah & Mah Finance • 15% growth in disbursements + better NIM to drive NII growth • With 23% increase in opex, operating profit growth to be higher at

31% (also aided by a low base) • Favourable base and stable provisioning to drive growth in PAT • Lower interest reversal and cost to drive NIMs higher

Net Interest income 8,635 11,117 ‐22.30% 6,754 27.80%Pre‐provision Profit 4,728 7,252 ‐34.80% 3,586 31.80%PAT 1,685 2,341 ‐28.00% 870 93.80%NIM (%) 7.3 9.6 ‐2.32 6.5 0.76EPS (Rs) 3 4.1 ‐28.00% 1.5 93.60%Shriram City Union Fin

• Stable AUM growth, even as NIMs contract marginally • Lower opex cost to drive operating growth higher • Credit cost to remain elevated at 3.5% annualised • NIMs may see a marginal contraction of 31bps

Net Interest income 7,887 7,134 10.50% 6,862 14.90%Pre‐provision Profit 5,170 4,324 19.60% 4,139 24.90%PAT 2,116 120 1658.70% 1,818 16.40%NIM (%) 13.4 12.5 0.9 13.7 ‐0.31EPS (Rs) 32.1 1.8 1658.70% 27.6 16.40%



(Rs mn) Jun‐17E Mar‐17 qoq (%) Jun‐16 yoy (%) Key expectations Manappuram Finance

• Subdued AUM growth to lead to lower NII growth • Higher fixed‐cost ratio to keep opex higher • Earnings are in line with operating profit • Higher auctions in Q4FY17 led to higher yields in that quarter

Net Interest income 5,411 6,084 ‐11.10% 4,784 13.10%Pre‐provision Profit 2,793 3,522 ‐20.70% 2,663 4.90%PAT 1,709 2,055 ‐16.90% 1,613 5.90%NIM (%) 15.4 17.8 ‐2.42 14.7 0.7EPS (Rs) 2 2.4 ‐16.90% 1.9 5.80%Muthoot Finance • Moderate growth as gold price fell 0.5% qoq

• NIMs to stay stable • Operating Profit is in line with NII growth • Buffer provision to keep credit costs low • NIMs to see yoy improvement

Net Interest income 8,170 11,501 ‐29.00% 7,141 14.40%Pre‐provision Profit 5,242 8,223 ‐36.30% 4,413 18.80%PAT 3,412 3,218 6.00% 2,703 26.20%NIM (%) 11.9 17 ‐5.1 11.4 0.49EPS (Rs) 8.5 8.1 6.00% 6.8 26.10%




Capital Goods & Engineering Earnings estimates (Rs mn) Jun‐17E Mar‐17 qoq (%) Jun‐16 yoy (%) Key expectations ABB India

• Discrete automation and power grids to drive yoy execution growth • Yoy improvement in segment margins for discrete automation and

power grids • Operating leverage benefits to drive EBITDA margin

Revenues 24,676 21,688 13.8% 21,015 17.4%EBITDA 2,110 1,714 23.1% 1,701 24.1%EBITDA margin (%) 8.6% 7.9% 65bps 8.1% 46bpsPAT 1,058 882 20.0% 774 36.7%EPS (Rs) 5.0 4.2 20.0% 3.7 36.7%Bharat Electronics

• WLR, HHTI, and EVM orders to aid sales growth • Impact of 7th PC provision on employee costs in 1QFY18 will lead to a

EBITDA loss

Revenues 12,508 39,877 ‐68.6% 8,714 43.5%EBITDA (406) 10,506 ‐103.9% (391) 3.9%EBITDA margin (%) ‐3.2% 26.3% ‐2959bps ‐4.5% 124bpsPAT (307) 8,475 ‐103.6% 361 ‐185.0%EPS (Rs) (0.1) 3.8 ‐103.6% 0.2 ‐185.0%GETD

• Sales growth aided by pick up in execution as the Champa‐Kurukshetra Phase 2 HVDC project started and low base last year

• EBITDA margins to improve 700bps qoq on gross margin expansion

Revenues 10,329 11,963 ‐13.7% 8,546 20.9%EBITDA 519 1,097 ‐52.7% (170) ‐405.4%EBITDA margin (%) 5.0% 9.2% ‐415bps ‐2.0% 701bpsPAT 260 461 ‐43.7% (188) ‐238.0%EPS (Rs) 1.0 1.8 ‐43.7% (0.7) ‐238.0%BHEL

• Projects won in 4QFY17 still in the ramp up phase. Execution on Telengana projects yet to start

• Provision for 7th PC to partly offset positives of higher gross margins in non‐JDU projects

Revenues 63,594 96,882 ‐34.4% 56,225 13.1%EBITDA 2,126 13,249 ‐84.0% 710 199.4%EBITDA margin (%) 3.3% 13.7% ‐1033bps 1.3% 208bpsPAT 1,565 7,480 ‐79.1% 778 101.2%EPS (Rs) 0.6 3.1 ‐79.1% 0.3 101.2%Crompton Greaves

• Weak order backlog in power systems coupled with potential impact of GST destocking in industrial systems will lead to modest topline growth

• Margins to contract 110bps as last year included one‐off income in power system

Revenues 14,600 17,101 ‐14.6% 13,277 10.0%EBITDA 1,084 1,181 ‐8.2% 1,130 ‐4.0%EBITDA margin (%) 7.4% 6.9% 52bps 8.5% ‐108bpsPAT 401 376 6.6% 506 ‐20.8%EPS (Rs) 0.6 0.6 6.6% 0.8 ‐20.8%Cummins India

• Industrial and distribution segments to drive growth in the domestic business. Exports should benefit from a low base in 1QFY17

• Gross margins to contract due to higher raw material costs • We build lower EBITDA margins yoy, but sequential improvement as

4QFY17 suffered from poor sales mix

Revenues 14,343 11,844 21.1% 12,590 13.9%EBITDA 2,299 1,700 35.2% 2,063 11.4%EBITDA margin (%) 16.0% 14.4% 167bps 16.4% ‐36bpsPAT 1,996 1,585 26.0% 1,812 10.2%EPS (Rs) 7.2 5.7 26.0% 6.5 10.2%Engineers India

• Revenue growth to be driven by strong turnkey revenues on a low base • Margins to decline because of provision for 7th pay commission

Revenues 3,983 4,429 ‐10.1% 3,418 16.5%EBITDA 568 1,449 ‐60.8% 733 ‐22.5%EBITDA margin (%) 14.3% 32.7% ‐1844bps 21.4% ‐718bpsPAT 692 1,244 ‐44.4% 803 ‐13.8%EPS (Rs) 1.0 1.8 ‐44.4% 1.2 ‐13.8%KEC International

• Execution will be driven by railways and solar while T&D revenues (65% of sales) should grow 10% yoy

• Increase in raw material costs to restrict margin expansion. We build in flat margins yoy

• Lower interest costs and tax rate should drive earnings

Revenues 19,846 28,492 ‐30.3% 17,487 13.5%EBITDA 1,750 3,011 ‐41.9% 1,496 17.0%EBITDA margin (%) 8.8% 10.6% ‐175bps 8.6% 26bpsPAT 514 1,474 ‐65.2% 309 66.0%EPS (Rs) 2.0 5.7 ‐65.2% 1.2 66.0%Larsen & Toubro

• Consolidated sales growth of 9% yoy. Core infrastructure segment to continue facing execution headwinds

• Margins to expand 100bps yoy on lower ECL provisions and improved profitability in hydrocarbon and heavy engineering segments

Revenues 238,508 368,280 ‐35.2% 218,738 9.0%EBITDA 23,396 43,351 ‐46.0% 19,050 22.8%EBITDA margin (%) 9.8% 11.8% ‐196bps 8.7% 110bpsPAT 10,675 32,100 ‐66.7% 6,096 75.1%EPS (Rs) 11.4 34.4 ‐66.8% 6.5 74.9%



(Rs mn) Jun‐17E Mar‐17 qoq (%) Jun‐16 yoy (%) Key expectations Siemens

• Expect 25% yoy growth in sales excluding healthcare business • Yoy EBITDA margin improvement on higher margins in mobility and

energy management segments

Revenues 26,627 29,288 ‐9.1% 26,211 1.6%EBITDA 2,768 2,786 ‐0.6% 2,358 17.3%EBITDA margin (%) 10.4% 9.5% 88bps 9.0% 140bpsPAT 1,739 1,791 ‐2.9% 1,313 32.5%EPS (Rs) 4.9 5.0 ‐2.9% 3.7 32.5%Thermax

• Execution in 1Q to remain subdued as ramp up in Dangote order should take place in 2HFY18

• Turnaround in environment segment margins should help margins toexpand

Revenues 10,342 14,905 ‐30.6% 9,784 5.7%EBITDA 827 1,732 ‐52.2% 566 46.1%EBITDA margin (%) 8.0% 11.6% ‐362bps 5.8% 221bpsPAT 535 1,176 ‐54.5% 252 112.4%EPS (Rs) 4.5 9.9 ‐54.5% 2.1 112.4%Va Tech Wabag

• Growth in domestic revenues to be offset by lower sales in international subsidiaries

• Higher margins in petronas order will drive turnaround in international subsidiaries

• Expect 100bps expansion in margins yoy

Revenues 5,863 11,317 ‐48.2% 5,803 1.0%EBITDA 340 1,317 ‐74.2% 275 23.9%EBITDA margin (%) 5.8% 11.6% ‐583bps 4.7% 107bpsPAT 107 757 ‐85.9% 22 381.2%EPS (Rs) 2.0 13.9 ‐85.9% 0.4 380.8%Voltas • High base in UCP segment coupled with marginal impact of destocking

due to GST. Expect 10% UCP segment sales • Margin recovery in MEP segment will be negated by 100bps contraction

in UCP segment margins

Revenues 20,313 20,351 ‐0.2% 18,500 9.8%EBITDA 2,231 2,219 0.5% 1,995 11.8%EBITDA margin (%) 11.0% 10.9% 8bps 10.8% 20bpsPAT 1,722 1,989 ‐13.4% 1,567 9.9%EPS (Rs) 5.2 6.0 ‐13.4% 4.7 9.9%




Cement Earnings estimates (Rs mn) Jun‐17E Mar‐17 qoq (%) Jun‐16 yoy (%)ACC Revenues 32,699 30,997 5% 28,698 14%Volumes 6.49 6.60 ‐2% 6.12 6%Realisation/tonne ‐ Blended 5,041 4,696 7% 4,689 7%Operating Costs 27,643 27,572 0% 24,597 12%Opex/tonne 4,261 4,178 2% 4,019 6%EBITDA 5,056 3,424 48% 4,102 23%EBITDA/tonne 779 519 50% 670 16%EBITDA margin (%) 15.5% 11.0% 14.3%PAT 3,431 2,111 63% 2,391 43%Ambuja Cement Revenues 27,730 25,334 9% 25,412 9%Volumes 6.14 6.04 2% 5.85 5%Realisation/tonne ‐ Blended 4,514 4,194 8% 4,344 4%Operating Costs 22,382 21,684 3% 19,598 14%Opex/tonne 3,644 3,590 1% 3,350 9%EBITDA 5,347 3,651 46% 5,813 ‐8%EBITDA/tonne 871 604 44% 994 ‐12%EBITDA margin (%) 19.3% 14.4% 22.9% PAT 3,374 2,465 37% 3,995 ‐16%EPS (Rs) 1.7 1.2 2.6 UltraTech Cement Revenues 72,178 70,198 3% 65,378 10%Volumes 14.63 15.12 ‐3% 14.07 4%Realisation/tonne ‐ Blended 4,934 4,644 6% 4,648 6%Operating Costs 55,666 56,837 ‐2% 51,143 9%Opex/tonne 3,805 3,760 1% 3,636 5%EBITDA 16,512 13,361 24% 14,235 16%EBITDA/tonne 1,129 884 28% 1,012 12%EBITDA margin (%) 22.9% 19.0% 21.8% PAT 8,949 6,821 31% 7,801 15%EPS (Rs) 32.5 24.8 28.4 Shree Cement Revenues 25,946 23,803 9% 21,987 18%Volumes 5.92 5.93 0% 5.17 15%Realisation/tonne ‐ Blended 4,385 4,014 9% 4,254 3%Operating Costs 19,266 18,691 3% 14,678 31%Opex/tonne 3,256 3,152 3% 2,840 15%EBITDA 6,680 5,112 31% 7,308 ‐9%EBITDA/tonne ‐ excludes power 1,078 817 32% 1,264 ‐15%EBITDA margin (%) 25.7% 21.5% 33.2% PAT 3,367 3,088 9% 5,077 ‐34%EPS (Rs) 96.6 88.6 145.7 Dalmia Bharat Revenues 21,073 21,850 ‐4% 17,775 19%Volumes 4.06 4.55 ‐11% 3.76 8%Realisation/tonne ‐ Blended 5,189 4,802 8% 4,727 10%Operating Costs 14,869 16,334 ‐9% 12,691 17%Opex/tonne 3,662 3,590 2% 3,375 8%EBITDA 6,204 5,517 12% 5,084 22%EBITDA/tonne 1,528 1,212 26% 1,352 13%EBITDA margin (%) 29.4% 25.2% 28.6% PAT 2,008 2,089 ‐4% 924 117%EPS (Rs) 22.6 23.5 10.4



(Rs mn) Jun‐17E Mar‐17 qoq (%) Jun‐16 yoy (%)India Cements Revenues 14,505 15,226 ‐5% Volumes 2.64 2.92 ‐10%Realisation/tonne ‐ Blended 5,494 5,214 5%Operating Costs 12,169 13,326 ‐9%Opex/tonne 4,609 4,564 1%EBITDA 2,336 1,900 23%EBITDA/tonne 885 651 36%EBITDA margin (%) 16.1% 12.5% PAT 670 343 95%EPS (Rs) 2.2 1.1 JK Cement Revenues 9,977 10,189 ‐2% 8,867 13%Volumes 2.00 2.15 ‐7% 1.89 6%Realisation/tonne ‐ Blended 4,997 4,737 5% 4,703 6%Operating Costs 7,929 8,375 ‐5% 7,210 10%Opex/tonne 3,971 3,893 2% 3,824 4%EBITDA 2,047 1,814 13% 1,657 24%EBITDA/tonne 1,025 843 22% 879 17%EBITDA margin (%) 20.5% 17.8% 18.7% PAT 1,188 994 20% 720 65%EPS (Rs) 17.0 14.2 10.3 JK Lakshmi Revenues 8,526 8,067 6% 7,772 10%Volumes 2.26 2.29 ‐1% 2.11 7%Realisation/tonne ‐ Blended 3,771 3,521 7% 3,678 3%Operating Costs 7,328 7,352 0% 6,597 11%Opex/tonne 3,241 3,209 1% 3,122 4%EBITDA 1,199 716 68% 1,175 2%EBITDA/tonne 530 312 70% 556 ‐5%EBITDA margin (%) 14.1% 8.9% 15.1% PAT 528 197 286 84%EPS (Rs) 4.5 1.7 2.4 Heidelberg Cement Revenues 4,783 4,538 5% 4,618 4%Volumes 1.21 1.21 0% 1.22 ‐1%Realisation/tonne ‐ Blended 3,960 3,750 6% 3,785 5%Operating Costs 3,868 3,836 1% 3,819 1%Opex/tonne 3,202 3,171 1% 3,130 2%EBITDA 915 701 31% 799 15%EBITDA/tonne 758 580 31% 655 16%EBITDA margin (%) 15.8% 12.8% 14.2% PAT 402 195 263 53%EPS (Rs) 1.8 0.9 1.2 Mangalam Revenues 2,618 2,543 3% 2,241 17%Volumes 0.66 0.69 ‐4% 0.60 10%Realisation/tonne ‐ Blended 3,940 3,680 7% 3,711 6%Operating Costs 2,229 2,295 ‐3% 1,771 26%Opex/tonne 3,355 3,322 1% 2,932 14%EBITDA 389 248 57% 471 ‐17%EBITDA/tonne 585 358 63% 779 ‐25%EBITDA margin (%) 14.9% 9.7% 21.0% PAT 262 27 226 16%EPS (Rs) 9.4 1.0 8.5


Yoy numbers not comparable due to merger of Trinetra. Consolidated yoy volumes was at 2.64 mn tonnes and reported standalone EBITDA/tonne was at Rs873.



Consumer

Earnings estimates (Rs mn) Jun‐17E Mar‐17 qoq (%) Jun‐16 yoy (%) Result Update highlights ITC

• 3%/7% volume/price growth in cigarettes. FMCG others to grow 6% yoy • Gross margins to remain steady • EBITDA margins to remain steady and EBITDA to grow in line with sales • Earnings growth to be in line with EBITDA

Volume growth (est.) 3.0 3.0 2.0

Revenues 107,784 111,255 ‐3.1% 99,577 8.2%

Gross Profit 61,976 64,427 ‐3.8% 57,121 8.5%

Gross margin (%) 57.5 57.9 57.4

EBITDA 38,627 38,754 ‐0.3% 35,262 9.5%

EBITDA margin (%) 35.8 34.8 35.4

PAT 26,244 26,695 ‐1.7% 23,847 10.1%

EPS (Rs) 2.2 2.2 ‐1.7% 2.0 10.1%

Hindustan Unilever • Volumes/price to rise by 4%/0% on heavy channel promotions • Gross margins to contract by 100bps due to high promotions • EBITDA growth will be impacted by high ad spends • Earnings growth to be impacted by subdued EBITDA


Revenues 83,072 81,000 2.6% 79,877 4.0%

Gross Profit 41,144 40,780 0.9% 40,323 2.0%

Gross margin (%) 49.5 50.3 50.5

EBITDA 16,588 16,510 0.5% 16,359 1.4%

EBITDA margin (%) 20.0 20.4 20.5

PAT 11,683 11,180 4.5% 11,280 3.6%

EPS (Rs) 5.4 5.2 4.5% 5.2 3.6%

Dabur India Ltd • Domestic volumes/price to grow 6%/0% • Gross margins to remain steady • EBITDA growth will be limited by pressure on gross margins due to rising

RM prices • Earnings growth to be similar to EBITDA growth

Volume growth (est.) (4.0) 2.4 4.1

Revenues 18,681 19,147 ‐2.4% 19,477 ‐4.1%

Gross Profit 9,527 9,385 1.5% 9,864 ‐3.4%

Gross margin (%) 51.0 49.0 50.6

EBITDA 3,609 4,176 ‐13.6% 3,488 3.5%

EBITDA margin (%) 19.3 21.8 17.9

PAT 2,969 3,331 ‐10.9% 2,928 1.4%

EPS (Rs) 1.7 1.9 ‐10.9% 1.7 1.4%

Godrej Cons. Products • 11% growth in international business, 3% in domestic business • GM to expand by 130bps yoy vs. 260bps last quarter • Gross margin expansion and operating leverage to drive EBITDA growth • Earnings growth to be strong

Revenues 22,686 23,805 ‐4.7% 21,202 7.0%

Gross Profit 12,477 13,468 ‐7.4% 11,376 9.7%

Gross margin (%) 55.0 56.6 53.7

EBITDA 4,470 5,507 ‐18.8% 3,800 17.6%

EBITDA margin (%) 19.7 23.1 17.9

PAT 3,089 3,852 ‐19.8% 2,506 23.2%

EPS (Rs) 9.1 11.3 ‐19.8% 7.4 23.2%

Marico Industries • Flat domestic volume, realisations to rise 4% • GM to shrink by 90bps yoy vs. ‐180 bps last quarter • EBITDA growth will be limited by pressure on gross margins • Earnings growth will be similar to EBITDA growth


Revenues 17,631 13,152 34.1% 17,499 0.8%

Gross Profit 8,992 6,787 32.5% 9,079 ‐1.0%

Gross margin (%) 51.0 51.6 51.9

EBITDA 3,740 2,595 44.2% 3,740 0.0%

EBITDA margin (%) 21.2 19.7 21.4

PAT 2,601 1,709 52.2% 2,641 ‐1.5%

EPS (Rs) 2.0 1.3 52.2% 2.0 ‐1.6%

Jubilant Foodworks SSSG (2.0) (7.5) (3.2) • ‐2% SSSG

• Gross margins to remain stable qoq • EBITDA growth will be led by cost control • Earnings growth will be slightly lower than EBITDA growth due to higher

depreciation

Revenues 6,392 6,128 4.3% 6,088 5.0%

Gross Profit 4,909 4,710 4.2% 4,674 5.0%

Gross margin (%) 76.8 76.9 76.8

EBITDA 659 605 8.9% 577 14.1%

EBITDA margin (%) 10.3 9.9 9.5

PAT 201 67 198.4% 190 5.5%

EPS (Rs) 3.1 1.0 198.4% 2.9 5.7%



(Rs mn) Jun‐17E Mar‐17 qoq (%) Jun‐16 yoy (%) Result Update highlights Colgate

• ‐5%/5% volume/price growth • Gross margins to stay flat • EBITDA growth to be slightly lower due to rise in ad spends • Earnings growth to be similar to EBITDA growth

Volume growth (5.0) (3.0) 6.0

Revenues 11,415 11,718 ‐2.6% 11,415 0.0%

Gross Profit 7,603 7,840 ‐3.0% 7,598 0.1%

Gross margin (%) 66.6 66.9 66.6

EBITDA 2,091 2,443 ‐14.4% 2,117 ‐1.2%

EBITDA margin (%) 18.3 20.8 18.5

PAT 1,247 1,426 ‐12.5% 1,257 ‐0.8%

EPS (Rs) 4.6 5.2 ‐12.5% 4.6 ‐0.8%

Nestle • Sales growth of 10% to continue on a low base • Gross margins to be steady qoq • EBITDA growth to be higher due to cost control • Earnings growth to be similar to EBITDA growth

Revenues 24,817 25,757 ‐3.7% 22,561 10.0%

Gross Profit 14,270 14,819 ‐3.7% 13,066 9.2%

Gross margin (%) 57.5 57.5 57.9

EBITDA 5,430 5,350 1.5% 4,579 18.6%

EBITDA margin (%) 21.9 20.8 20.3

PAT 3,052 3,068 ‐0.5% 2,630 16.0%

EPS (Rs) 31.6 31.8 ‐0.5% 27.3 16.0%

Glaxo Smithkline Cons • ‐5%/5% volume/price growth • Gross margins to be steady yoy • EBITDA margins to be flat • Earnings growth to be higher due to other income

Revenues 8,871 10,418 ‐14.8% 8,871 0.0%

Gross Profit 6,121 6,654 ‐8.0% 6,109 0.2%

Gross margin (%) 69.0 63.9 68.9

EBITDA 2,021 2,171 ‐6.9% 2,035 ‐0.7%

EBITDA margin (%) 22.8 20.8 22.9

PAT 1,654 1,751 ‐5.5% 1,606 3.0%

EPS (Rs) 39.3 41.6 ‐5.5% 38.2 3.0%

Britannia • 0%/7% volume/price growth • Built in raw material cost inflation of 8% yoy • EBITDA growth will be in line with sales, in spite of RM cost inflation, due

to cost control • Adjusted earnings growth will be in line with EBITDA growth


Revenues 22,538 22,300 1.1% 21,063 7.0%

Gross Profit 8,564 8,385 2.1% 8,184 4.6%

Gross margin (%) 38.0 37.6 38.9

EBITDA 3,414 3,081 10.8% 3,162 8.0%

EBITDA margin (%) 15.1 13.8 15.0

PAT 2,373 2,108 12.6% 2,192 8.3%

EPS (Rs) 19.8 17.6 12.6% 18.3 8.3%

Emami • ‐3%/+3% volume/price growth • GM to be flat yoy • EBITDA growth to be flat yoy • Adjusted earnings growth to be in line with EBITDA growth

Revenues 6,434 5,776 11.4% 6,434 0.0%

Gross Profit 4,150 3,592 15.5% 4,147 0.1%

Gross margin (%) 64.5 62.2 64.5

EBITDA 1,470 1,781 ‐17.5% 1,473 ‐0.2%

EBITDA margin (%) 22.8 30.8 22.9

PAT 1,048 1,332 ‐21.3% 1,054 ‐0.6%

EPS (Rs) 4.6 5.9 ‐21.3% 4.6 ‐0.6%

Asian Paints • 3%/4% volume/price growth • Cost inflation of 5% yoy • EBITDA growth will be limited due to lower cost base • Earnings growth will be similar to EBITDA growth


Revenues 43,173 44,162 ‐2.2% 40,348 7.0%

Gross Profit 22,450 21,968 2.2% 21,157 6.1%

Gross margin (%) 52.0 49.7 52.4

EBITDA 8,131 7,119 14.2% 8,203 ‐0.9%

EBITDA margin (%) 18.8 16.1 20.3

PAT 5,333 4,796 11.2% 5,351 ‐0.3%

EPS (Rs) 5.6 5.0 11.2% 5.6 ‐0.3%

BajaJ Corp • ‐5%/5% volume/price growth • Gross margins to be steady • EBITDA growth to be similar to sales growth • Earnings growth will be similar to EBITDA growth

Volume growth (5.0) (6.9) 0.8

Revenues 2,037 2,042 ‐0.2% 2,037 0.0%

Gross Profit 1,332 1,372 ‐2.9% 1,333 ‐0.1%

Gross margin (%) 65.4 67.2 65.4

EBITDA 701 662 5.8% 710 ‐1.3%

EBITDA margin (%) 34.4 32.4 34.8

PAT 607 527 15.2% 616 ‐1.5%

EPS (Rs) 4.1 3.6 15.2% 4.2 ‐1.5%



(Rs mn) Jun‐17E Mar‐17 qoq (%) Jun‐16 yoy (%) Result Update highlights Agro Tech Foods

• Edible oils and foods to grow by 2%/10% • EBITDA growth will be higher than revenue growth due to high operating

leverage • PAT to be high due to lower interest costs

Revenues 1,982 2,055 ‐3.6% 1,906 4.0%

Gross Profit 660 682 ‐3.2% 635 3.9%

Gross margin (%) 33.3% 33.2% 33.3%

EBITDA 158 157 0.6% 151 4.6%


PAT 81 73 11.1% 61 32.1%

EPS (Rs) 3.3 3.0 11.1% 2.5 32.1%

Titan • 30% growth in jewellery due to low base and 10% growth in watches • EBITDA growth to be in line with sales growth • PAT to be high due to operating leverage

Revenues 34,781 34,297 1.4% 27,825 25.0%

Gross Profit 9,391 8,596 9.2% 8,243

Gross margin (%) 27.0% 25.1% 29.5%

EBITDA 3,591 2,721 32.0% 2,922 22.9%

EBITDA margin (%) 10.3 7.9 10.5

PAT 2,535 2,023 25.3% 1,945 30.3%

EPS (Rs) 2.9 2.3 25.3% 2.2 30.3%

Parag Milk Foods • Nil/5% growth in volume/realisations • Margins to be flat yoy • EBITDA will be led by cost control • PAT growth to be similar to EBITDA growth

Revenues 4,026 4,283 ‐6.0% 3,835 5.0%

Gross Profit 1,208 1,390 ‐13.1% 1,147 5.3%

Gross margin (%) 30.0 32.4 29.9

EBITDA 358 519 ‐31.0% 330 8.6%


PAT 119 328 ‐63.7% 108 10.3%

EPS (Rs) 1.4 3.9 ‐64.1% 1.3 9.0%




IT Services Earnings estimates (Rs mn) Jun‐17E Mar‐17 qoq (%) Jun‐16 yoy (%) Key expectations Tata Consultancy

• CC revenue growth of 2% and positive cross‐currency impact of 80bps • Margins to decline 160bps qoq due to INR appreciation, salary hike, and visa costs

• Would keenly watch: Commentary on client budgets, Diligenta, and outlook of BFSI and retail

US$ Revenues 4,578 4,452 2.8% 4,362 5.0%Revenues 295,283 296,420 ‐0.4% 293,050 0.8%EBITDA 71,150 76,270 ‐6.7% 73,470 ‐3.2%EBITDA margin (%) 24.1 25.7 ‐160bps 25.1 ‐100bpsPAT 62,354 66,080 ‐5.6% 63,170 ‐1.3%EPS (Rs) 32.6 33.5 ‐2.8% 32.1 1.6%Infosys

• CC revenue +2.1%, positive cross‐currency impact of 40bps • Margins to decline 110bps qoq due to INR appreciation and visa costs • Should maintain FY18 guidance. Watch out for TCV wins

US$ Revenues 2,634 2,569 2.5% 2,501 5.3%Revenues 169,863 171,200 ‐0.8% 167,820 1.2%EBITDA 39,867 42,120 ‐5.3% 40,470 ‐1.5%EBITDA margin (%) 23.5 24.6 ‐110bps 24.1 ‐60bpsPAT 34,247 36,030 ‐4.9% 34,360 ‐0.3%EPS (Rs) 15.0 15.8 ‐4.9% 15.0 ‐0.3%Wipro

• IT services CC revenue decline of ‐0.9% (mid‐point of guidance). Positive cross‐currency impact of 90bps to result in flat revenue growth

• Margins to decline 120bps due to one‐month salary hike and visa costs• 2QFY18 guidance to be moderate

$ Revenue – IT Services 1,955 1,955 0.0% 1,931 1.3%Revenues 130,264 139,875 ‐6.9% 135,992 ‐4.2%EBIT 21,616 24,828 ‐12.9% 22,847 ‐5.4%EBIT margin (%) 16.6 17.8 ‐120bps 16.8 ‐20bpsPAT 19,775 22,611 ‐12.5% 20,518 ‐3.6%EPS (Rs) 4.1 4.7 ‐12.8% 4.2 ‐2.3%HCL Technologies

• CC +3.2%, positive cross‐currency impact of 90bps. Full quarter consolidation of Geometric (US$ 30mn) and IBM IP deals to drive Q1 growth

• EBITDA margin to decline 60bps due to visa costs and INR appreciation • Outlook, especially on IMS and ERD businesses, to be keenly watched

US$ Revenues 1,891 1,817 4.1% 1,691 11.9%Revenues 121,996 120,530 1.2% 113,360 7.6%EBITDA 23,763 24,160 ‐1.6% 23,330 1.9%EBITDA margin (%) 19.5 20.0 ‐60bps 20.6 ‐110bpsPAT 20,244 23,280 ‐13.0% 20,430 ‐0.9%EPS (Rs) 14.5 16.5 ‐11.8% 14.5 0.6%Tech Mahindra

• CC organic revenue ‐2.6% due to seasonality in Comviva and continued restructuring in LCC. Positive cross‐currency impact of 70bps. HCI acquisition to add US$ 18mn to revenues

• Margins: Absence of non‐recurring provisions (180bps) last quarter to be mitigated by INR appreciation, seasonality in Comviva and visa costs

• Keenly watch commentary on LCC and communication business

US$ Revenues 1,125 1,131 ‐0.5% 1,032 9.1%Revenues 72,576 74,950 ‐3.2% 69,209 4.9%EBITDA 5,814 6,152 ‐5.5% 8,271 ‐29.7%EBITDA margin (%) 8.0 8.2 ‐20bps 12.0 ‐390bpsPAT 5,545 5,880 ‐5.7% 7,500 ‐26.1%EPS (Rs) 6.3 6.7 ‐5.7% 8.4 ‐25.1%

MindTree • CC revenue growth of 2.5% • Positive cross currency impact of 40bps • Margins to decline 160bps due to INR appreciation and visa costs • FY18 commentary on digital growth and TCV to be keenly watched

US$ Revenues 201 196 2.9% 199 1.2%Revenues 12,986 13,181 ‐1.5% 13,276 ‐2.2%EBITDA 1,167 1,401 ‐16.7% 1,483 ‐21.3%EBITDA margin (%) 9.0 10.6 ‐160bps 11.2 ‐220bpsPAT 967 972 ‐0.6% 1,235 ‐21.7%EPS (Rs) 5.8 5.8 ‐0.6% 7.4 ‐21.8%NIIT Technologies

• Muted USD revenue growth due to seasonality in GIS business • Margins to decline mainly due to visa costs, salary hike, and INR

appreciation • Strong earnings growth yoy due to the absence of exceptional loss (Rs

361mn) because of provision for government contracts

US$ Revenues 107 106 0.7% 101 6.2%Revenues 6,919 7,176 ‐3.6% 6,707 3.2%EBITDA 756 948 ‐20.2% 689 9.7%EBITDA margin (%) 10.9 13.2 ‐230bps 10.3 70bpsPAT 609 739 ‐17.5% 285 113.8%EPS (Rs) 10.0 12.1 ‐17.5% 4.7 113.8%Persistent Systems

• We expect USD revenue growth of 1.8% • Margins to decline 140bps, due to INR appreciation and visa costs • Watch out for revenue growth outlook from the IBM‐Watson deal and

enterprise business

US$ Revenues 111 109 1.8% 105 6.0%Revenues 7,161 7,271 ‐1.5% 7,018 2.0%EBITDA 796 908 ‐12.3% 715 11.4%EBITDA margin (%) 11.1 12.5 ‐140bps 10.2 90bpsPAT 778 728 6.8% 733 6.2%EPS (Rs) 9.7 9.1 6.8% 9.2 6.2%



(Rs mn) Jun‐17E Mar‐17 qoq (%) Jun‐16 yoy (%) Key expectations KPIT Technologies

• Margins to decline due to INR appreciation • Outlook on ERP and engineering to be keenly watched

US$ Revenues 127 128 ‐0.8% 120 6.3%Revenues 8,211 8,585 ‐4.4% 8,032 2.2%EBITDA 551 623 ‐11.5% 668 ‐17.6%EBITDA margin (%) 6.7 7.3 ‐50bps 8.3 ‐160bpsPAT 416 537 ‐22.6% 551 ‐24.5%EPS (Rs) 2.1 2.8 ‐26.1% 2.9 ‐27.8%L&T Tech Services

• Margins to expand qoq, despite INR appreciation and visa costs, due to partial reversal of hiring expense in the last quarter

• Outlook for the transport and industrial verticals to be keenly sought, along with the deal pipeline

US$ Revenues 125 121 3.4% 120 4.2%Revenues 8,068 8,123 ‐0.7% 8,029 0.5%EBITDA 1,210 1,191 1.6% 1,312 ‐7.8%EBITDA margin (%) 15.0 14.7 30bps 16.3 ‐130bpsPAT 985 965 2.1% 1,080 ‐8.8%EPS (Rs) 9.7 9.5 2.1% 11.0 ‐11.9%Cyient

• Margins to decline 90bps qoq due to muted revenue performance, INR appreciation, and visa costs

• Watch out for outlook on DLM and new deal wins

US$ Revenues 141 141 ‐0.3% 125 12.7%Revenues 9,063 9,410 ‐3.7% 8,349 8.6%EBITDA 877 994 ‐11.8% 867 1.2%EBITDA margin (%) 9.7 10.6 ‐90bps 10.4 ‐70bpsPAT 879 786 11.8% 740 18.8%EPS (Rs) 7.8 7.0 11.8% 6.6 18.4%




Infrastructure Earnings estimates (Rs mn) Jun‐17E Mar‐17 qoq (%) Jun‐16 yoy (%) Key expectationsNCC

• Muted growth in topline due to weak orderbook • FY18 revenue guidance update ( earlier at 10‐12%) will be keenly sought• Margins to remain stable • Strong yoy earnings growth due to reduction in debt and interest

expense

Revenues 20,197 21,394 6.2% 19,011 ‐5.6%EBITDA 1,763 1,742 6.4% 1,657 1.2%EBITDA margin (%) 8.7% 8.1% 1 8.7% 59PAT 620 637 18.5% 523 ‐2.6%EPS (Rs) 1.12 1.15 18.5% 0.94 ‐2.6%KNR Construction

• Strong orderbook will ensure ~30% yoy growth in topline . • Margins to remain stable at 13‐14% • PAT growth impacted by higher tax rate

Revenues 4,076 4,821 34.4% 3,032 ‐15.5%EBITDA 591 722 35.3% 437 ‐18.2%EBITDA margin (%) 14.5% 15.0% 9 14.4% ‐48PAT 376 524 24.6% 302 ‐28.2%EPS (Rs) 2.68 3.73 24.6% 2.15 ‐28.2%PNC Infratech

• Disappointing numbers expected, as three projects (~40% of orderbook) continue to face delays in execution

• Margins to remain stable • Earnings to decline significantly due to lower execution and lower tax

rates in earlier quarters

Revenues 3,496 3,506 ‐32.1% 5,150 ‐0.3%EBITDA 462 474 ‐31.2% 671 ‐2.7%EBITDA margin (%) 13.2% 13.5% 17 13.0% ‐33PAT 292 337 ‐54.3% 640 ‐13.3%EPS (Rs) 1.14 1.32 ‐54.3% 2.49 ‐13.3%ITD Cementation

• Expect disappointing results again (after a weak 1QCY17) due to weak orderbook

• Margins should continue to expand on legacy low‐margin orders moving out of the orderbook.

• Strong earnings growth due to exceptionally low margins in 1QCY16

Revenues 6,797 5,234 ‐21.1% 8,614 29.9%EBITDA 515 761 22.1% 422 ‐32.4%EBITDA margin (%) 7.6% 14.5% 268 4.9% ‐697PAT 128 153 146.4% 52 ‐15.9%EPS (Rs) 0.83 0.98 146.4% 0.34 ‐15.9%Ahluwalia Contracts

• Stable topline growth after a weak 2HFY17; orderbook to stay relatively weak

• Margins to expand qoq, though still below the normal range of 13‐14% • Earnings to see yoy decline due to lower margins

Revenues 3,385 4,718 10.5% 3,063 ‐28.3%EBITDA 350 431 ‐18.5% 429 ‐18.9%EBITDA margin (%) 10.3% 9.1% ‐368 14.0% 120PAT 173 203 ‐19.5% 215 ‐14.5%EPS (Rs) 2.59 3.03 ‐19.5% 3.21 ‐14.5%J Kumar Infra

• Muted topline growth as the company continues to face execution challenges

• Margins to remain stable • Muted earnings growth due to lower execution

Revenues 4,312 3,555 6.9% 4,033 21.3%EBITDA 733 602 7.8% 680 21.8%EBITDA margin (%) 17.0% 16.9% 13 16.9% 7PAT 323 263 8.5% 298 23.1%EPS (Rs) 4.27 3.47 8.5% 3.94 23.1%HCC

• We have only estimated the core EPC business financials – excluding the impact of arbitration awards

• Core business to report stable double‐digit growth of 12% • Margins to remain stable • Interest expense to fall sharply on conversion of debt into equity and

lower 'notional' interest on OCDs

Revenues 9,936 13,583 1.1% 9,825 ‐26.8%EBITDA 1,192 2,241 ‐30.9% 1,725 ‐46.8%EBITDA margin (%) 12.0% 16.5% ‐556 17.6% ‐450PAT (154) 209 ‐241.2% 109 ‐173.5%EPS (Rs) (0.20) 0.27 ‐241.2% 0.14 ‐173.5%

Adani Ports & SEZ • Moderate cargo growth at Mundra mitigated by strong growth in other

ports – leading to an overall strong growth in topline • Margins are likely to remain stable • Updates on Ennore and Vizhinjam ports and on acquisition of Kattupalli

port will be keenly sought

Revenues 21,624 22,315 18.4% 18,266 ‐3.1%EBITDA 13,934 13,335 14.5% 12,171 4.5%EBITDA margin (%) 64.4% 59.8% ‐219 66.6% 468PAT 7,114 11,641 ‐14.4% 8,315 ‐38.9%EPS (Rs) 3.44 5.62 ‐14.4% 4.02 ‐38.9%IRB Infrastructure

• Toll collections to see yoy decline due to six projects being transferred to the InvIT for 50 days

• Strong yoy growth in EPC revenues • Margins to remain stable • Strong earnings growth driven by reduction in interest and depreciation

due to transfer of projects to InvIT

Revenues 14,790 16,561 ‐2.3% 15,143 ‐10.7%EBITDA 7,583 8,227 ‐2.0% 7,740 ‐7.8%EBITDA margin (%) 51.3% 49.7% 16 51.1% 159PAT 2,101 2,071 15.5% 1,819 1.4%EPS (Rs) 5.98 5.89 15.5% 5.18 1.4%

Ashoka Buildcon • No yoy/qoq comparison available for consolidated numbers • Standalone, we expect strong revenue growth and stable margins

(adjusted for exceptional). • Toll collections numbers (reported separately) will be keenly watched

Revenues 5,365 6,048 15.1% 4,660 ‐11.3%EBITDA 644 636 0.2% 643 1.2%EBITDA margin (%) 12.0% 10.5% ‐180 13.8% 148PAT 413 654 34.1% 308 ‐36.8%EPS (Rs) 2.21 3.49 34.1% 1.65 ‐36.8%Sadbhav Engineering

• Decent topline growth driven by execution on new HAM projects • Margins to remain stable • Muted earnings growth due to higher interest expense on higher debt

Revenues 9,011 10,329 11.7% 8,070 ‐12.8%EBITDA 969 1,096 11.6% 868 ‐11.6%EBITDA margin (%) 10.8% 10.6% ‐1 10.8% 14PAT 514 682 5.6% 487 ‐24.6%EPS (Rs) 3.00 3.98 5.6% 2.84 ‐24.6%



Media Earnings estimates (Rs mn) Jun‐17E Mar‐17 qoq (%) Jun‐16 yoy (%) Key expectations Zee Entertainment

• 9% ad revenue growth (adjusted basis) • Adjusted subscription revenue to increase by 8% • Content cost to remain elevated qoq due to launch of new

shows in Hindi GEC genre

Revenues 14,858 15,280 ‐2.8% 15,716 ‐5.5%EBITDA 4,858 4,687 3.7% 4,532 7.2%EBITDA margin (%) 32.7 30.7 28.8PAT 3,288 15,155 ‐78.3% 2,170 51.6%EPS (Rs) 3.4 15.8 ‐78.3% 2.3 51.6%Dish TV

• To add net subscribers of 150,000; ARPU of Rs 142 • Revenue to grow qoq primarily driven by an increased subscriber

base • EBITDA margins to improve qoq due to lower transponder cost

(Q4 had one‐off cost)

Revenues 7,202 7,086 1.6% 7,786 ‐7.5%EBITDA 2,082 1,905 9.3% 2,647 ‐21.3%EBITDA margin (%) 28.9 26.9 34.0PAT (123) (284) ‐56.6% 409 ‐130.1%EPS (Rs) (0.1) (0.3) ‐56.6% 0.4 ‐130.1%DB Corp

• Flattish yoy print ad revenue growth; overall ad revenue up 2% • Circulation revenue up 6% yoy driven by yield improvement • EBITDA margins ‐120bps yoy due to flattish print ad revenue

Revenues 5,869 5,171 13.5% 5,704 2.9%EBITDA 1,794 1,122 59.8% 1,812 ‐1.0%EBITDA margin (%) 30.6 21.7 31.8PAT 1,091 642 70.0% 1040 5.0%EPS (Rs) 5.9 3.5 70.0% 5.7 4.9%Jagran Prakashan

• Print ad revenue growth of 2%, circulation revenue growth of 4.5%, radio ad revenue growth of 16%

• EBITDA margins to decline 100bps yoy due to sluggish print ad revenue growth and higher opex towards new radio station launches

Revenues 5,834 5,650 3.3% 5,587 4.4%EBITDA 1,553 1,432 8.4% 1,540 0.8%EBITDA margin (%) 26.6 25.3 27.6PAT 915 827 10.6% 822 11.4%EPS (Rs) 1.4 1.3 10.6% 1.3 11.4%HMVL

• Print ad revenue growth of 5% yoy and flattish circulation revenue growth

• EBITDA margins to improve due to lower newsprint consumption

Revenues 2,481 2,343 5.9% 2,392 3.7%EBITDA 651 573 13.6% 569 14.4%EBITDA margin (%) 26.2 24.4 23.8PAT 522 464 12.3% 487 7.1%EPS (Rs) 7.1 6.3 12.3% 6.6 7.1%HT Media

• Hindi print ad revenue growth of 5%, English print ad revenue decline of 12%, circulation revenue decline of 5%. Radio revenue to be boosted by new station launches

• EBITDA margins to improve yoy due to lower newsprint consumption and lower losses in digital business

Revenues 6,091 5,853 4.1% 6,147 ‐0.9%EBITDA 766 731 4.8% 643 19.1%EBITDA margin (%) 12.6 12.5 10.5PAT 280 256 9.6% 224 25.0%EPS (Rs) 1.2 1.1 9.6% 1.0 24.9%




Metals Earnings estimates (Rs mn) Jun‐17E Mar‐17 qoq (%) Jun‐16 yoy (%) Key expectations JSW Steel ‐ Consolidated

• Sequential fall in volumes (seasonal) and lower realisations to impact revenues

• Stable coking cost and higher iron ore prices will impact the margins sequentially

Revenues 146,042 162,873 ‐10.3% 115,424 26.5%EBITDA 22,064 31,649 ‐30.3% 32,694 ‐32.5%EBITDA margin (%) 15.1 19.4 28.3PAT 2,912 10,086 ‐71.1% 11,090 ‐73.7%EPS (Rs) 12.0 42 ‐71.1% 46 ‐73.7%Tata Steel ‐ Consolidated


• Lower ferro alloy prices and no export incentives will also impact profits sequentially

• EU OP/tonne to decline qoq to US$ 75 from US$ 103 in Q4

Revenues 266,501 334,241 ‐20.3% 251,560 5.9%EBITDA 40,237 70,252 ‐42.7% 32,420 24.1%EBITDA margin (%) 15.1 21.0 12.9PAT 5,454 33,434 ‐83.7% 3,164 72.4%EPS (Rs) 6 34 ‐83.7% 3 72.4%SAIL


• No major turnaround in profitability given lower prices and elevated coal costs

Revenues 109,390 126,905 ‐13.8% 90,823 20.4%EBITDA (3,423) (2,644) 29.5% 2,338 ‐246.4%EBITDA margin (%) (3.1) (2.1) 2.6PAT (10,368) (7,713) 34.4% (5,355) 93.6%EPS (Rs) (3) (2) 34.4% (1) 93.6%Hindalco Inds

• Revenues down qoq; Q4 was boosted by inventory de‐stocking • Benefit of higher LME will be offset by higher costs and lower

volumes in both segments • Utkal Alumina profitability to remain strong on higher alumina

prices

Revenues 96,792 110,261 ‐12.2% 75,973 27.4%EBITDA 12,021 13,472 ‐10.8% 11,325 6.1%EBITDA margin (%) 12.4 12.2 14.9PAT 3,889 5,028 ‐22.7% 2,943 32.1%EPS (Rs) 2 2 ‐22.7% 1 21.7%NALCO

• Revenues down sequentially as Q4 was boosted by inventory destocking

• Benefit of higher aluminium prices will be offset by higher costs and lower spot alumina prices

Revenues 21,173 24,233 ‐12.6% 16,661 27.1%EBITDA 2,805 4,275 ‐34.4% 1,938 44.7%EBITDA margin (%) 13.2 17.6 11.6PAT 1,633 2,684 ‐39.1% 1,342 21.7%EPS (Rs) 1 1 ‐39.1% 1 62.3%Hindustan Zinc

• Maintenance shutdown will hit qoq volumes, which, along with lower prices, will lead to lower revenues

• Lower volumes will impact costs and hence lower the profitability

Revenues 46,767 62,602 ‐25.3% 25,015 87.0%EBITDA 24,833 37,480 ‐33.7% 11,303 119.7%EBITDA margin (%) 53.1 59.9 45.2PAT 18,047 30,570 ‐41.0% 10,369 74.1%EPS (Rs) 4 7 ‐41.0% 2 74.1%Vedanta

• Lower zinc prices and plant disruptions in power and aluminium to impact qoq revenues

• Zinc, aluminium, and power segments are likely to drag the profitability qoq

Revenues 173,706 225,113 ‐22.8% 144,371 20.3%EBITDA 51,496 73,501 ‐29.9% 35,064 46.9%EBITDA margin (%) 29.6 32.7 24.3PAT 15,745 15,249 3.3% 6,818 130.9%EPS (Rs) 5 5 3.3% 2 130.9%




Midcaps Earnings estimates (Rs mn) Jun‐17E Mar‐17 qoq (%) Jun‐16 yoy (%) Key expectations Concor

• Volume growth of 6% yoy; domestic growth of 12% from a low base • Yoy recovery in margin, with cost reduction • Assumed effective tax rate at 25%

Revenues 13,799 13,249 4.2% 13,392 3.0%EBITDA 2,756 2,620 5.2% 2,619 5.2%EBITDA margin (%) 20.0 19.8 19.6PAT 1,834 1,892 ‐3.1% 1,785 2.8%EPS (Rs) 9.4 9.7 ‐3.1% 9.2 2.8%Praj Inds.

• Orderbook of Rs 9.4bn, lower execution • Revenue mix and lower execution to impact margins yoy

Revenues 1,800 3,016 ‐40.3% 1,967 ‐8.5%EBITDA 29 383 ‐92.4% 43 ‐33.2%EBITDA margin (%) 1.6 12.7 2.2PAT 6 232 ‐97.4% 14 ‐55.6%EPS (Rs) 0.0 1.3 ‐97.4% 0.1 ‐55.9%Pennar Inds.

• Growth in railways, tubes, and impact of steel price increase • Margins lower yoy due to increase in raw material price and PEBS • Assumed tax provision of 34%

Revenues 3,346 4,649 ‐28.0% 3,067 9.1%EBITDA 369 494 ‐25.3% 362 1.9%EBITDA margin (%) 11.0 10.6 11.8PAT 96 180 ‐46.8% 78 22.7%EPS (Rs) 1.5 0.9 68.7% 1.4 10.8%Allcargo

• Marginal recovery in container trade • Impact of DPD on CFS business on yoy

Revenues 14,279 13,628 4.8% 13,989 2.1%EBITDA 1,196 1,056 13.3% 1,332 ‐10.2%EBITDA margin (%) 8.4 7.7 9.5PAT 640 573 11.9% 610 5.0%EPS (Rs) 2.3 2.0 16.4% 2.7 ‐17.1%Sintex

• Improvement in Phase‐2 utilisation; assumed lower trading volume • Revenue mix and operating leverage in spinning

Revenues 6,500 6,614 ‐1.7% EBITDA 940 778 20.9% EBITDA margin (%) 14.5 11.8 PAT 590 496 19.1% EPS (Rs) 1.1 0.9 19.1% KDDL

• Weakness in retail and impact of PAN‐card notification • Operating leverage impact on margins

Revenues 990 1,033 ‐4.2% 1,080 ‐8.3%EBITDA 23 45 ‐48.8% 62 ‐62.6%EBITDA margin (%) 2.3 4.4 5.8PAT (35) (13) 162.8% (5) 643.6%EPS (Rs) (3.2) (1.2) 162.8% (0.5) 591.5%PEBS

• Orderbook of ~ Rs 3.7bn, moderate execution • Impact of increase in raw material costs, revenue mix

Revenues 1,050 1,501 ‐30.0% 939 11.8%EBITDA 100 129 ‐22.7% 113 ‐11.7%EBITDA margin (%) 9.5 8.6 12.0PAT 38 88 ‐57.2% 44 ‐14.8%EPS (Rs) 1.1 2.6 ‐57.2% 1.3 ‐14.8%Havells

• Contribution from Lloyd to result in growth (ex‐Lloyd at ‐8% yoy, lower growth because of destocking).

• Lower margins from Lloyd and higher copper prices to result in a decline in margins

Revenues 19,789 17,102 15.7% 14,668 34.9%EBITDA 2,452 2,323 5.5% 2,012 21.9%EBITDA margin (%) 12.4 13.6 13.7PAT 1,523 1,741 ‐12.5% 1,456 4.6%EPS (Rs) 2.4 2.8 ‐12.6% 2.3 4.6%Finolex

• Destocking due to GST to result in lower growth • Higher copper prices yoy to result in lower margins

Revenues 6,357 7,846 ‐19.0% 5,966 6.6%EBITDA 807 1,011 ‐20.2% 904 ‐10.7%EBITDA margin (%) 12.7 12.9 15.2PAT 650 755 ‐13.9% 672 ‐3.3%EPS (Rs) 4.2 4.9 ‐13.9% 4.4 ‐3.3%



(Rs mn) Jun‐17E Mar‐17 qoq (%) Jun‐16 yoy (%) Key expectations Bajaj Electricals

• New distribution strategy and destocking to result in lower growth • Price hike and margin improvement from new channels

Revenues 9,607 12,639 ‐24.0% 9,518 0.9%EBITDA 626 739 ‐15.3% 564 11.0%EBITDA margin (%) 6.5 5.8 5.9PAT 310 384 ‐19.4% 229 35.4%EPS (Rs) 3 4 ‐19.4% 2 35.4%V‐Guard

• Destocking, both in south and non‐south markets because of GST • Higher copper prices to impact margins

Revenues 6,273 6,233 0.7% 5,727 9.5%EBITDA 624 594 5.1% 638 ‐2.3%EBITDA margin (%) 9.9 9.5 11.1PAT 428 419 2.2% 428 0.0%EPS (Rs) 1.4 1.0 45.4% 1.0 42.3%KEI

• Higher revenue from the B2B segment (with higher copper prices) to lead to growth

• Higher copper prices and employee costs to impact margin

Revenues 6,108 7,398 ‐17.4% 5,508 10.9%EBITDA 573 736 ‐22.2% 559 2.4%EBITDA margin (%) 9.4 9.9 10.2PAT 175 316 ‐44.7% 169 3.2%EPS (Rs) 2.3 4.1 ‐44.7% 2.2 3.2%VRL Logistics

• Goods transport and bus segments to report +2.7%/+2.0% yoy growth • Lower biodiesel contribution to result in lower margin

Revenues 4,696 4,429 6.0% 4,586 2.4%EBITDA 635 418 52.0% 670 ‐5.4%EBITDA margin (%) 13.5 9.4 14.6PAT 238 98 143.7% 265 ‐10.1%EPS (Rs) 2.6 1.1 143.7% 2.9 ‐10.1%Gateway Distriparks

• Marginal recovery qoq in container volumes • DPD, pressure on CFS profitability

Revenues 618 589 5.0% 645 ‐4.2%EBITDA 151 119 26.2% 168 ‐10.2%EBITDA margin (%) 24.4 20.3 26.0PAT 156 156 0.0% 97 60.6%EPS (Rs) 1.4 1.4 0.0% 0.9 60.6%Navkar

• Recovery in Vapi volume + recovery in JNPT • Operating impact due to RTGS installation, Vapi volumes

Revenues 1,101 991 11.1% 902 22.0%EBITDA 401 349 14.7% 383 4.7%EBITDA margin (%) 36.4 35.3 42.4PAT 238 202 17.6% 263 ‐9.7%EPS (Rs) 1.7 1.4 17.6% 1.8 ‐9.7%Indo Count Industries

• INR recovery to impact negatively, weakness in realisation • RM cost pressure and lower realisation yoy

Revenues 5,185 5,129 1.1% 4,926 5.3%EBITDA 942 901 4.6% 1,103 ‐14.5%EBITDA margin (%) 18.2 17.6 22.4PAT 522 488 7.1% 603 ‐13.4%EPS (Rs) 2.6 2.5 7.1% 3.4 ‐21.0%




Oil & Gas Earnings estimates (Rs mn) Jun‐17E Mar‐17 qoq (%) Jun‐16 yoy (%) Key expectations Reliance Industries (C)

• GRM of US$ 11.2/bbl; 114% refining utilisation • Some improvement in petchem volumes/margins • PX commissioning will see expensing • Interest, other income, to rise qoq; ETR at 22%

Revenues 745,913 848,230 ‐12.1% 649,900 14.8%EBITDA 121,355 122,330 ‐0.8% 112,230 8.1%EBITDA margin (%) 16.3 14.4 17.3PAT 78,633 80,530 ‐2.4% 71,130 10.5%EPS (Rs) 26.6 27.2 ‐2.4% 24.1 10.2%Petronet LNG

• Dahej/Kochi at 97%/9% utilisation • Marketing margin at 5cents/mmbtu • ETR of 27%

Revenues 70,130 63,651 10.2% 53,373 31.4%EBITDA 6,858 7,038 ‐2.6% 6,425 6.7%EBITDA margin (%) 9.8 11.1 12.0PAT 4,433 4,206 5.4% 3,779 17.3%EPS (Rs) 5.9 5.6 5.4% 5.0 17.3%Gujarat Gas

• 2% qoq volume growth at 6.2mmscmd • EBITDA/scm of Rs 4.1, up 2x+ qoq • ETR of 27%

Revenues 15,114 14,002 7.9% 12,248 23.4%EBITDA 2,343 1,134 106.6% 2,518 ‐7.0%EBITDA margin (%) 15.5 8.1 20.6PAT 894 69 1197.8% 989 ‐9.6%EPS (Rs) 6.5 0.5 1197.8% 7.2 ‐9.6%Indraprastha Gas

• 11% yoy volume growth • EBITDA/scm of Rs 5.9, up 10% qoq

Revenues 10,163 10,019 1.4% 8,997 13.0%EBITDA 2,612 2,455 6.4% 2,596 0.6%EBITDA margin (%) 25.7 24.5 28.9PAT 1,521 1,395 9.1% 1,480 2.8%EPS (Rs) 10.9 10.0 9.1% 10.6 2.8%Gujarat State Petronet

• 11% qoq volume growth to 26mmscmd • Flat qoq adjusted‐tariff realisation, ppex down qoq

Revenues 2,673 2,446 9.3% 2,581 3.6%EBITDA 2,287 2,013 13.6% 2,333 ‐2.0%EBITDA margin (%) 85.5 82.3 90.4PAT 1,295 1,112 16.5% 1,213 6.8%EPS (Rs) 2.3 2.0 16.5% 2.2 6.8%Castrol India

• 5% yoy volume decline • 8% qoq growth in EBITDA/ltr

Revenues 9,619 8,822 9.0% 9,708 ‐0.9%EBITDA 3,043 2,633 15.6% 3,173 ‐4.1%EBITDA margin (%) 31.6 29.8 32.7PAT 2,012 1,790 12.4% 2,069 ‐2.8%EPS (Rs) 4.1 3.6 12.4% 4.2 ‐2.8%Gulf Oil Lubricants

• 1% yoy volume decline • 7% qoq growth in EBITDA/ltr

Revenues 3,024 2,996 0.9% 2,836 6.6%EBITDA 498 465 7.0% 485 2.6%EBITDA margin (%) 16.5 15.5 17.1PAT 332 321 3.4% 312 6.5%EPS (Rs) 6.7 6.5 3.4% 6.3 6.5%




Pharmaceuticals Earnings estimates (Rs mn) Jun‐17E Mar‐17 qoq (%) Jun‐16 yoy (%) Result update highlights Aurobindo Pharma

• Muted 5% growth in US sales to US$ 265mn despite continued US pricing pressure

• Flat margins due to pricing pressure in the US • PAT in line with muted operating performance

Revenues 38,482 36,416 5.7% 37,666 2.2%EBITDA 8,966 7,762 15.5% 8,890 0.9%EBITDA margin (%) 23.3% 21.3% 23.6%PAT 5,921 5,875 0.8% 5,797 2.1%EPS (Rs) 10.2 10.1 0.8% 9.9 2.1%Biocon Ltd

• Flat sales growth due to muted performance from Syngene and biopharma • EBITDA margin to see sequential fall due to unabsorbed cost at its new Malaysia plant

• PAT in line with operating performance

Revenues 9,909 9,250 7.1% 9,814 1.0%EBITDA 2,170 1,984 9.4% 2,538 ‐14.5%EBITDA margin (%) 21.9% 21.4% 25.9%PAT 1,087 1,434 ‐24.2% 1,646 ‐34.0%EPS (Rs) 5.4 7.2 ‐24.2% 8.2 ‐34.0%Cadila Healthcare

• Sales growth largely driven by strong 36% yoy rise in US business. 3% decline in domestic formulation sales due to GST impact

• EBITDA margin decline due to weaker domestic base and US business (sequential recovery in margin), to result in a small rise in EBITDA

• APAT muted due to muted operating performance

Revenues 25,766 25,249 2.0% 23,331 10.4%EBITDA 5,359 4,900 9.4% 5,002 7.1%EBITDA margin (%) 20.8% 19.4% 21.4%PAT 3,238 3,284 ‐1.4% 3,212 0.8%EPS (Rs) 3.2 3.2 ‐1.4% 3.1 0.8%Cipla Ltd

• Flat sales growth primarily due to weak domestic sales and muted performance in US and other markets

• Margins to decline due to weak domestic performance • Higher depreciation cost and tax outgo to drag PAT growth

Revenues 36,970 35,820 3.2% 36,500 1.3%EBITDA 5,619 5,062 11.0% 6,112 ‐8.1%EBITDA margin (%) 15.2% 14.1% 16.7%PAT 1,498 1,946 ‐23.0% 3,526 ‐57.5%EPS (Rs) 1.9 2.4 ‐23.0% 4.4 ‐57.5%Divis Labs

• Sales to decline yoy due to impact of import alert • EBITDA margins to fall yoy/qoq due to remediation cost caused by import alert

• PAT in line with weak operating performance

Revenues 10,020 10,667 ‐6.1% 10,172 ‐1.5%EBITDA 3,357 3,910 ‐14.2% 4,038 ‐16.9%EBITDA margin (%) 33.5% 36.7% 39.7%PAT 2,356 2,909 ‐19.0% 2,981 ‐21.0%EPS (Rs) 8.9 11.0 ‐19.0% 11.2 ‐21.0%Dr Reddy’s Lab • Sales to see muted yoy growth due to enhanced competition in the US

business and 3% decline in domestic sales due to GST impact • Estimate US sales at US$ 240mn, a growth of 4% yoy primarily due to the incremental sales from the launch of gVytorin in the US market

• Margin rise on a low base that was impacted by increased remediation spend, NDA launching expenses in the US, higher R&D (15% of sales), and lower sales from the US

• Profit to rise on a low base

Revenues 33,821 35,542 ‐4.8% 32,345 4.6%EBITDA 7,283 6,339 14.9% 3,869 88.2%EBITDA margin (%) 21.5% 17.8% 12.0%PAT 3,367 3,125 7.7% 1,236 172.3%EPS (Rs) 20.9 19.4 7.7% 7.7 172.3%

Glenmark Pharma • Sales growth primarily on healthy US sales (44% CC/INR growth) supported by gZetia exclusive sales

• Margins to expand ~300bps led by the strong US performance • Strong sales/operating performance will lead to PAT growth

Revenues 22,304 24,572 ‐9.2% 19,431 14.8%EBITDA 5,018 5,179 ‐3.1% 3,791 32.4%EBITDA margin (%) 22.5% 21.1% 19.5%PAT 2,718 4,199 ‐35.3% 1,992 36.4%EPS (Rs) 9.6 14.9 ‐35.3% 7.1 36.4%IPCA Labs

• Sales to decline led by weak performance in domestic formulation due to GST related impact and no major improvement in exports

• Margins to sustain as remediation cost falls • In line with weak operating performance

Revenues 7,799 6,658 17.1% 8,551 ‐8.8%EBITDA 1,013 461 119.8% 1,285 ‐21.2%EBITDA margin (%) 13.0% 6.9% 15.0%PAT 431 228 89.2% 557 ‐22.6%EPS (Rs) 3.4 1.8 89.2% 4.4 ‐22.6%Lupin Ltd

• Decline in sales due to high base of gGlumetza and gFortamet exclusivity sales in Q1FY17

• Margin to fall on a high base (gGlumetza), resulting in a fall in EBITDA • PAT to decline yoy on a high base

Revenues 42,946 42,533 1.0% 44,394 ‐3.3%EBITDA 11,209 11,053 1.4% 13,080 ‐14.3%EBITDA margin (%) 26.1% 26.0% 29.5%PAT 6,514 7,041 ‐7.5% 8,820 ‐26.1%EPS (Rs) 14.5 15.6 ‐7.5% 19.6 ‐26.1%



(Rs mn) Jun‐17E Mar‐17 qoq (%) Jun‐16 yoy (%) Result update highlights Sun Pharma Ltd

• Sharp decline in sales due to the high base of gGleevec exclusivity in Q1FY17 and weak performance from Taro Pharma. Domestic formulation are also likely to be muted yoy

• Margins correction due to due to high base of gGleevec, higher R&D, and weak operating performance from Taro Pharma

Revenues 69,758 71,370 ‐2.3% 82,430 ‐15.4%EBITDA 16,742 18,490 ‐9.5% 29,210 ‐42.7%EBITDA margin (%) 24.0% 25.9% 35.4%PAT 11,202 15,252 ‐26.6% 20,337 ‐44.9%EPS (Rs) 4.7 6.4 ‐26.6% 8.5 ‐44.9%




Specialty Chemicals Earnings estimates (Rs mn) Jun‐17E Mar‐17 qoq (%) Jun‐16 yoy (%) Key expectations Aarti Industries

• Strong performance in specialty chemicals segment led by rising contribution from value‐added products. Pharma (~20% yoy growth) to complement overall growth.

• Margins to sustain due to better product mix • Muted core pat due to higher depreciation and financial costs

Revenues 8,168 8,344 ‐2.1% 7,354 11.1%EBITDA 1,683 1,526 10.3% 1,546 8.8%EBITDA margin (%) 20.6% 18.3% 21.0%PAT 850 743 14.4% 825 3.0%EPS (Rs) 10.2 8.9 14.4% 9.9 3.0%Atul Ltd

• Sustained performance both in life sciences and chemicals businesses • Margin to decline due to pricing pressure in its leading segments,

resulting in flat yoy EBITDA growth. • Weak operating performance and higher depreciation cost to affect PAT

Revenues 7,293 7,586 ‐3.9% 6,751 8.0%EBITDA 1,160 1,014 14.4% 1,171 ‐0.9%EBITDA margin (%) 15.9% 13.4% 17.3%PAT 683 639 6.9% 656 4.1%EPS (Rs) 23.0 21.5 6.9% 22.1 4.1%Camlin Life sciences

• Growth in sales led by recovery in antioxidant prices and improvement in US/Brazil operations

• EBITDA margin to see smart sequential recovery. However, the unabsorbed expenses at US/Brazil subsidiary and lost business due customer discontinuation to keep the margins under pressure

• Representing continued recovery from losses over last three quarters

Revenues 1,574 1,494 5.3% 1,402 12.3%EBITDA 143 15 879.3% 157 ‐8.9%EBITDA margin (%) 9.1% 1.0% 11.2%PAT 1 (78) 101.6% 13 ‐90.4%EPS (Rs) 0.0 (0.8) 101.6% 0.1 ‐90.4%

Meghmani organics • Sales growth primarily led by basic chemicals (+12%)and pigments

(+15%). Agrochem likely to be weak (‐2% yoy) due to GST impact • EBITDA margins to sustain • Led by financial deleveraging and lower taxes

Revenues 4,228 3,870 9.3% 3,927 7.7%EBITDA 816 738 10.6% 749 9.0%EBITDA margin (%) 19.3% 19.1% 19.1%PAT 294 237 23.9% 210 39.9%EPS (Rs) 1.2 0.9 23.9% 0.8 39.9%SRF Ltd

• Growth in sales due to strong seasonal refrigerant‐gas sales. Packaging will see strong 14% growth due to incremental sales from its BOPET facility. TTB to maintain stable growth

• Margins to fall by ~250bps due to weak performance from fluorospecialty

• PAT is in line with margin correction

Revenues 14,724 14,164 4.0% 12,994 13.3%EBITDA 2,842 2,157 31.7% 2,841 0.0%EBITDA margin (%) 19.3% 15.2% 21.9%PAT 1,337 1,107 20.8% 1,379 ‐3.0%EPS (Rs) 23.3 19.3 20.8% 24.0 ‐3.0%

Vinati Organics • Healthy sales growth supported by new product launches and sustained

growth in existing products • Margins to remain strong • Strong sales/operating performance will lead to PAT growth

Revenues 2,131 2,076 2.7% 1,772 20.3%EBITDA 652 605 7.7% 595 9.5%EBITDA margin (%) 30.6% 29.2% 33.6%PAT 420 406 3.5% 357 17.7%EPS (Rs) 8.1 7.9 3.5% 6.9 17.7%




Telecom Earnings estimates (Rs mn) Jun‐17E Mar‐17 qoq (%) Jun‐16 yoy (%) Key expectations Bharti Airtel

• India voice revenue to remain flattish qoq (+5% volume growth and 5% realisation decline). Data revenue to decline marginally qoq due to sharp fall in realisation, partially compensated by increased usage. Overall ARPU to decline 3% qoq.

• Steady revenue from other India businesses and African operation • EBITDA margins to decline qoq due to increased cost incidence (higher

network and SG&A cost) in the Indian operations

Revenues 216,762 219,346 ‐1.2% 255,729 ‐15.2%EBITDA 75,199 78,600 ‐4.3% 95,745 ‐21.5%EBITDA margin (%) 34.7 35.8 37.4PAT 5,245 3,734 40.5% 14,620 ‐64.1%EPS (Rs) 1.3 0.9 40.4% 3.7 ‐64.1%

Idea Cellular • Voice volume to increase 6%, but realisation to decline 7% • Data volume to increase by 10%, but realisation to decline 15% • Overall ARPU to decline by 3% • EBITDA margin to decline qoq due to higher SG&A and network opex

Revenues 79,148 81,261 ‐2.6% 94,866 ‐16.6%EBITDA 20,002 21,965 ‐8.9% 30,742 ‐34.9%EBITDA margin (%) 25.3 27.0 32.4PAT (3,899) (3,277) NM 2,204 NMEPS (Rs) (1.1) (0.9) NM 0.6 NMBharti Infratel

• Tower addition of ~600 and net tenancy addition of ~3,400 • Reported revenue to increase by 2% qoq • EBITDA margin to fall marginally qoq due to lower energy spreads

Revenues 35,871 35,204 1.9% 32,107 11.7%EBITDA 16,017 15,846 1.1% 14,083 13.7%EBITDA margin (%) 44.7 45.0 43.9PAT 6,849 5,966 14.8% 7,563 ‐9.4%EPS (Rs) 3.6 3.1 14.8% 4.0 ‐9.4%Tata Communications

• Sluggish revenue growth yoy due to lower realisation in voice. Payment solutions to recover qoq, but continues to lag yoy

• Lower EBITDA margins from voice and payment solutions to impact overall EBITDA margins. Reported EBITDA margins of the traditional business (data) to recover qoq. EBITDA performance will continue to be impacted by higher access charges

Revenues 44,315 42,937 3.2% 44,569 ‐0.6%EBITDA 5780 5,024 15.1% 6,720 ‐14.0%EBITDA margin (%) 13.0 11.7 15.1PAT 172 (2,617) ‐106.6% 418 ‐58.8%EPS (Rs) 0.6 (9.2) ‐106.6% 1.5 ‐58.8%




Rating Methodology We rate stock on absolute return basis. Our target price for the stocks has an investment horizon of one year. Rating Criteria Definition

BUY >= +15% Target price is equal to or more than 15% of current market price

NEUTRAL ‐15% > to < +15% Target price is less than +15% but more than ‐15%

SELL <= ‐15% Target price is less than or equal to ‐15%.

Management Vineet Bhatnagar (Managing Director) (91 22) 2483 1919 Kinshuk Bharti Tiwari (Head – Institutional Equity) (91 22) 6246 4101 Jignesh Shah (Head – Equity Derivatives) (91 22) 6667 9735 Research Automobiles IT Services Pharma & Specialty Chem Dhawal Doshi (9122) 6246 4128 Vibhor Singhal (9122) 6246 4109 Surya Patra (9122) 6246 4121 Nitesh Sharma, CFA (9122) 6246 4126 Shyamal Dhruve (9122) 6246 4110 Mehul Sheth (9122) 6246 4123 Banking, NBFCs Infrastructure Strategy Manish Agarwalla (9122) 6246 4125 Vibhor Singhal (9122) 6246 4109 Naveen Kulkarni, CFA, FRM (9122) 6246 4122 Pradeep Agrawal (9122) 6246 4113 Paresh Jain (9122) 6246 4114 Logistics, Transportation & Midcap Telecom Consumer & Retail Vikram Suryavanshi (9122) 6246 4111 Naveen Kulkarni, CFA, FRM (9122) 6246 4122 Naveen Kulkarni, CFA, FRM (9122) 6246 4122 Media Manoj Behera (9122) 6246 4118 Jubil Jain (9122) 6246 4117 Manoj Behera (9122) 6246 4118 Technicals Preeyam Tolia (9122) 6246 4129 Metals Subodh Gupta, CMT (9122) 6246 4136 Cement Dhawal Doshi (9122) 6246 4128 Production Manager Vaibhav Agarwal (9122) 6246 4124 Ganesh Deorukhkar (9122) 6667 9966 Economics Mid-Caps & Database Manager Editor Anjali Verma (9122) 6246 4115 Deepak Agarwal (9122) 6246 4112 Roshan Sony 98199 72726 Shruti Bajpai (9122) 6246 4135 Oil & Gas Sr. Manager – Equities Support Engineering, Capital Goods Sabri Hazarika (9122) 6667 9756 Rosie Ferns (9122) 6667 9971 Jonas Bhutta (9122) 6246 4119 Vikram Rawat (9122) 6246 4120 Sales & Distribution Corporate Communications Ashvin Patil (9122) 6246 4105 Sales Trader Zarine Damania (9122) 6667 9976 Shubhangi Agrawal (9122) 6246 4103 Dilesh Doshi (9122) 6667 9747 Kishor Binwal (9122) 6246 4106 Suniil Pandit (9122) 6667 9745 Bhavin Shah (9122) 6246 4102 Ashka Mehta Gulati (9122) 6246 4108 Execution Archan Vyas (9122) 6246 4107 Mayur Shah (9122) 6667 9945

Contact Information (Regional Member Companies)

SINGAPORE: Phillip Securities Pte Ltd 250 North Bridge Road, #06‐00 RafflesCityTower,

Singapore 179101 Tel : (65) 6533 6001 Fax: (65) 6535 3834

www.phillip.com.sg

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JAPAN: Phillip Securities Japan, Ltd 4‐2 Nihonbashi Kabutocho, Chuo‐ku

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www.phillip.co.jp

INDONESIA: PT Phillip Securities Indonesia ANZTower Level 23B, Jl Jend Sudirman Kav 33A,

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CHINA: Phillip Financial Advisory (Shanghai) Co. Ltd. No 550 Yan An East Road, OceanTower Unit 2318

Shanghai 200 001 Tel (86) 21 5169 9200 Fax: (86) 21 6351 2940

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Tel (66) 2 2268 0999 Fax: (66) 2 2268 0921 www.phillip.co.th

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UNITED KINGDOM: King & Shaxson Ltd. 6th Floor, Candlewick House, 120 Cannon Street

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www.kingandshaxson.com UNITED STATES: Phillip Futures Inc.

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Chicago, IL 60604 USA Tel (1) 312 356 9000 Fax: (1) 312 356 9005

AUSTRALIA: PhillipCapital Australia Level 10, 330 Collins Street

Melbourne, VIC 3000, Australia Tel: (61) 3 8633 9800 Fax: (61) 3 8633 9899

www.phillipcapital.com.au

SRI LANKA: Asha Phillip Securities Limited Level 4, Millennium House, 46/58 Navam Mawatha,

Colombo 2, Sri Lanka Tel: (94) 11 2429 100 Fax: (94) 11 2429 199

www.ashaphillip.net/home.htm INDIA

PhillipCapital (India) Private Limited No. 1, 18th Floor, Urmi Estate, 95 Ganpatrao Kadam Marg, Lower Parel West, Mumbai 400013 Tel: (9122) 2300 2999 Fax: (9122) 6667 9955 www.phillipcapital.in



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No

Independence: PhillipCapital (India) Pvt. Ltd. has not had an investment banking relationship with, and has not received any compensation for investment banking services from, the subject issuers in the past twelve (12) months, and PhillipCapital (India) Pvt. Ltd does not anticipate receiving or intend to seek compensation for investment banking services from the subject issuers in the next three (3) months. PhillipCapital (India) Pvt. Ltd is not a market maker in the securities mentioned in this research report, although it, or its affiliates/employees, may have positions in, purchase or sell, or be materially interested in any of the securities covered in the report.

Suitability and Risks: This research report is for informational purposes only and is not tailored to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular requirements of any individual recipient hereof. Certain securities may give rise to substantial risks and may not be suitable for certain investors. Each investor must make its own determination as to the appropriateness of any securities referred to in this research report based upon the legal, tax and accounting considerations applicable to such investor and its own investment objectives or strategy, its financial situation and its investing experience. The value of any security may be positively or adversely affected by changes in foreign exchange or interest rates, as well as by other financial, economic, or political factors. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance or results.



Sources, Completeness and Accuracy: The material herein is based upon information obtained from sources that PCIPL and the research analyst believe to be reliable, but neither PCIPL nor the research analyst represents or guarantees that the information contained herein is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Opinions expressed herein are current opinions as of the date appearing on this material, and are subject to change without notice. Furthermore, PCIPL is under no obligation to update or keep the information current. Without limiting any of the foregoing, in no event shall PCIL, any of its affiliates/employees or any third party involved in, or related to computing or compiling the information have any liability for any damages of any kind including but not limited to any direct or consequential loss or damage, however arising, from the use of this document.

Copyright: The copyright in this research report belongs exclusively to PCIPL. All rights are reserved. Any unauthorised use or disclosure is prohibited. No reprinting or reproduction, in whole or in part, is permitted without the PCIPL’s prior consent, except that a recipient may reprint it for internal circulation only and only if it is reprinted in its entirety.

Caution: Risk of loss in trading/investment can be substantial and even more than the amount / margin given by you. Investment in securities market are subject to market risks, you are requested to read all the related documents carefully before investing. You should carefully consider whether trading/investment is appropriate for you in light of your experience, objectives, financial resources and other relevant circumstances. PhillipCapital and any of its employees, directors, associates, group entities, or affiliates shall not be liable for losses, if any, incurred by you. You are further cautioned that trading/investments in financial markets are subject to market risks and are advised to seek independent third party trading/investment advice outside PhillipCapital/group/associates/affiliates/directors/employees before and during your trading/investment. There is no guarantee/assurance as to returns or profits or capital protection or appreciation. PhillipCapital and any of its employees, directors, associates, and/or employees, directors, associates of PhillipCapital’s group entities or affiliates is not inducing you for trading/investing in the financial market(s). Trading/Investment decision is your sole responsibility. You must also read the Risk Disclosure Document and Do’s and Don’ts before investing.

Kindly note that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance.

For Detailed Disclaimer: Please visit our website www.phillipcapital.in

For U.S. persons only: This research report is a product of PhillipCapital (India) Pvt Ltd., which is the employer of the research analyst(s) who has prepared the research report. The research analyst(s) preparing the research report is/are resident outside the United States (U.S.) and are not associated persons of any U.S.‐regulated broker‐dealer and therefore the analyst(s) is/are not subject to supervision by a U.S. broker‐dealer, and is/are not required to satisfy the regulatory licensing requirements of FINRA or required to otherwise comply with U.S. rules or regulations regarding, among other things, communications with a subject company, public appearances, and trading securities held by a research analyst account.

This report is intended for distribution by PhillipCapital (India) Pvt Ltd. only to "Major Institutional Investors" as defined by Rule 15a‐6(b)(4) of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Act, 1934 (the Exchange Act) and interpretations thereof by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in reliance on Rule 15a 6(a)(2). If the recipient of this report is not a Major Institutional Investor as specified above, then it should not act upon this report and return the same to the sender. Further, this report may not be copied, duplicated, and/or transmitted onward to any U.S. person, which is not a Major Institutional Investor. In reliance on the exemption from registration provided by Rule 15a‐6 of the Exchange Act and interpretations thereof by the SEC in order to conduct certain business with Major Institutional Investors, PhillipCapital (India) Pvt Ltd. has entered into an agreement with a U.S. registered broker‐dealer, Decker & Co, LLC. Transactions in securities discussed in this research report should be effected through Decker & Co, LLC or another U.S. registered broker dealer. If Distribution is to Australian Investors This report is produced by PhillipCapital (India) Pvt Ltd and is being distributed in Australia by Phillip Capital Limited (Australian Financial Services Licence No. 246827). This report contains general securities advice and does not take into account your personal objectives, situation and needs. Please read the Disclosures and Disclaimers set out above. By receiving or reading this report, you agree to be bound by the terms and limitations set out above. Any failure to comply with these terms and limitations may constitute a violation of law. This report has been provided to you for personal use only and shall not be reproduced, distributed or published by you in whole or in part, for any purpose. If you have received this report by mistake, please delete or destroy it, and notify the sender immediately. PhillipCapital (India) Pvt. Ltd. Registered office: No. 1, 18th Floor, Urmi Estate, 95 Ganpatrao Kadam Marg, Lower Parel West, Mumbai 400013

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