a journey to the middle kingdom and back 2 final show version

China 2008 - Observations and travel log

Report to the Tech CommunityFriday, October 31, noonMatthew Nemerson, President & CEO Connecticut Technology CouncilVideo Conference Room at the Connecticut Innovation Center

Introductions and China familiarity Overview of the trip Opening observations China environment and growth

background Pictorial highlights My final thoughts Dicsussion

Quick introductions Have you been to China or the Pacific Rim? Special interests

Sponsored by Yale Education Travel My wife was “Professor on Board” 26 travelers

Mostly Law School and College grads from 1950s and 1960s with wives

Beijing > Xi’an > Yangtze River > Shanghai

18 Days

Expected Big buildings Great historical structures Growth Chaos Pollution Arrogance Oppression?

Didn’t expect Humility and introspection Optimism and appreciation for developments Fondness for USA Cleanliness (in Beijing and Shanghai) Quality of Museums Quality of infrastructure Level and expansiveness of growth Obvious challenges to continued growth

Road Warrior Details Canon Digital SLR – three lens Cannon – Powershot 100 point and shoot Panasonic laptop – 2.3 pounds WE 250 GB drive Conversion boxes Video Flip Sony hard-drive digital movie camera Lots of special plugs and powerpacks

Road Warrior Details Uploading to Flickr photos - slowly Bloging with Typepad – when connectivity Skyping when possible – a few problems From PDA wherever I was:

Text messaging at $.50 rather than calling at $1.95/minute

Getting emails usually and often able to send

Rank Country Industrial production Date of Info.

growth rate(%)1 Sudan 32.00 2007 est.

2 Azerbaijan 31.00 2007 est.

3 Angola 24.40 2007 est.

4 Vietnam 17.10 2007 est.

5 Equatorial Guinea 14.10 2007 est.

6 Egypt 13.80 2007 est.

7 China 12.90 2007 est~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~166 United Kingdom 0.70 2007 est.

167 Belize 0.50 2007 est.

168 Zimbabwe 0.50 2007 est.

169 United States 0.50 2007 est.

170 Saudi Arabia 0.20 2007 est.

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ch.html

Worlds largest at 104 million 2x the number of manufacturing

workers in the US, Canada, Japan, France, Germany, Italy, and the UK combined

Computers and computer parts in Guandong Province: “If there is a traffic jam between Dongguan

and Hong Kong, 70% of the world’s computer market will be affected.”A. Harney, The China Price, The Penguin Press, 2008

China is the number one producer of solar photovoltaics, with > 200 manufacturers creating 1700 MW of panels in 2007, nearly half of total world production of 3,800 MW.

China has become the world's leading proponent of solar heating technology

China is among the world leaders in wind energy with as much as 70% of the components made in China.

Chinese Renewable Energy Industries Association (CREIA), Scientific American, August 4, 2008

Incidence of Poverty – World Bank-ILOPeople PeopleBelow Below$2/Day $2/Day

Late-1980s Late-1990s

China 67.4% 50.1%India 83.2% 78.8%Africa 76.1% 76.1%

ANEEL KARNANI, THE MIRAGE OF MARKETING TO THE BOPCALIFORNIA MANAGEMENT REVIEW VOL. 49, NO. 4 SUMMER 2007

China's population doubled in 50 years to 1.3 billion today.

China is home to approximately 20% of the world's 6.4 billion

people. 170 cities over 1 million population Total of 56 ethnic groups, of which

the largest is the Han Chinese.

The Distribution of World Population

PRC government structure II

Policy is not set by government, but primarily by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP)

CCP something like a board of directors, but also maintains a parallel organizational structure to that of the government bureaucracy, with Party members overseeing the work of government officials.

J. Starr, Understanding China, Hill and Wang, 2001.

‘‘development is of overriding importance’’

‘‘development is the top priority’’ ‘‘overall, balanced and sustainable

development’’ gradually giving birth to a scientific

philosophy of development specific to China

Source: Liu, J. and Diamond, J. (2008). Revolutionizing China’s environmental protection. Science, Vol 413, 37-38

CO2 emissions are rising in step with growing GDP

Compared to the average person in China: Americans consume nine times as much

energy, use four times as much water, and release nearly eight times as much

greenhouse gas

Large (but controlled) population x sustained high rates of economic growth x increased investments in military and space x growing technological might = world superpower?

Intolerance of social behaviors x mass rural unemployment x corruption x poor environmental conditions x unwillingness to undertake structural reform = collapse of China?

Remember these sentiments:

The only way for manufacturers to compete with China is to move operations to China themselves....

“China makes you sharp or it kills you.”

Wall Street JournalMarch 2004

Move up the value chain from low value goods – i.e. cars, motorcycles industrial machinery

Branch out into design – J&J, research and development, brand creation to compete with higher price int’l brands

Acquire rivals and increase economies of scale

Retire and speculate on real estate!!

In December 2004, Chinese leaders agreed to shift the economy to be less reliant on inventment and exports and more toward domestic consumption.

One Chinese report referred to this as a move away from the two “strong horses” of investment and international trade toward the “weak donkey” of consumption.

Importing companies contribute to China’s vast pollution

That pollution has reached the US west coast and other parts of the world

China and other countries compete for energy, food crops, and other global resources (but this also reduces fertilizer loading and the water needed to grow grains and other crops

China’s fate is already intertwined with that of the rest of the world.

The rule of law and the legal system Worker and farmer health, safety and

livelihoods Watchdog role of media Grow-at-any cost vs. balanced

development And, even with the rising expectations of

Chinese citizens, ultimately, remember an important lesson from the west…

Getting used to world class airports

Getting used to world class airports

German Maglev connects to Shanghai suburbs and goes 250 MPH

Beijing extreme

The contrasts

Keeping the place clean

Olympic memories

Tiananmen Square

Forbidden City

“Traditional” Peking Duck

The Great Wall

Ming Tombs

Beijing Opera

Temple of Heaven

Hospital of traditional medicine

Summer Palace

At Tsinghua University

Platinum Certified

Marian Lectures

Xi’an

The Xi’an terracotta warriors

Xi’an scenes

Changing China

A typical university 40,000 students 4 year old campus Language and foreign trade

The country side

The 3 Gorges Dam

“Tangtze” River

The 3 Gorges Dam

The “trackers”

Impact of 3 Gorges Dam

Cultural and economic Impact of 3 Gorges Dam

The biggest city you never heard of… Chongching – 33 million

The biggest city you never heard of… Fascinating museum about the US

during and after war of Japanese occupation

Shanghai

Modern lifestyles

Terrific Museums

Terrific Museums – Urban Planning

The acrobats are still going strong

Yale China Educational Trip October 2008

Thanks for watching!