a housing discussion a discussion, not a consultation a call for ideas and views discussion phase...
TRANSCRIPT
A Housing Discussion
• A discussion, not a consultation• A call for ideas and views• Discussion phase largely complete by end of
August, but….• …don’t wait until then to contribute• Join the discussion today, tomorrow and again
next week• Website will be regularly updated to reflect what
people are saying
The Economic Downturn has had short-term and long-term impacts
• Housing both cause & casualty• Mortgages restricted• More repossessions• Reduced capacity of construction sector
Impacts ofRecession
EconomicRecovery Plan
• Accelerated Capital Expenditure• Open Market Shared Equity Extension• Home Owner Support Fund• Legal Protections
Longer-termImplications
• Effect on public spending• Need to prioritise public expenditure on housing•Fundamental questions about housing in the economy
Scottish Government spending is set to fall dramatically
20,000
22,000
24,000
26,000
28,000
30,000
32,000
2007
/08
2008
/09
2009
/10
2010
/11
2011
/12
2012
/13
2013
/14
2014
/15
2015
/16
2016
/17
2017
/18
2018
/19
2019
/20
2020
/21
2021
/22
2022
/23
2023
/24
£ M
illio
ns
(201
0-11
Pri
ces
)
Scottish Government DEL Expenditure
13 years
£25 billion
2009-10 2022-23
The Challenges Ahead• Rising population - 375k more people by 2033• Smaller households too –
overall 19,000 more households per annum• Ageing population
• 2012 Homelessness Target• 2015 Housing Quality Target• 2016 Fuel Poverty Target• 2020 Climate Change Target
• Quality houses in quality places• Long housing lists• Affordability of housing (e.g. 25% deposits)• Capacity of the construction sector
5 Key Themes for Discussion
Need
Affordable Supply
Housing Options
Quality and Place
Performance
Who should we be supporting in what way?
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Lowest 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Highest
Decile Group
Per
cent
age
of T
enur
e G
roup
RSL Lets
LIFT Shared Equity
Where should we target our support?
A focus on regeneration, homelessness or affordability would lead to very different
regional priorities
Regeneration% of data zones in LA in SIMD
bottom 15%Homelessness
pressure to 2012 (Waugh model) AffordabilityLQ house prices to LQ income
Rank these in order of importance
Maximising house building across all
tenures
More social homes for rent
More shared equity to support home
ownership
Better housing options for disabled people and the
infirm
Keeping social rents low
Reducing carbon emissions
Which existing products offer best vfm?
Grant type Duration (yrs) Average Scottish Government support per unit
New supply?
HAG 60+ £70K Yes
Council House Building Incentive
60+ £30k Yes
Rural Housing for Rent (pilot)
30 £60k Yes
Intermediate rent (MMR)
30 £45k Yes
NSSE (RSL)
Can be sold on but receipts recycled to SG
£55k Yes
NSSE (developer) £23k Yes
OMSEP (60% - 80%) £35k No
OMSEP (70% - 90% £28k-£33k No
NHT guarantee 5-10 £2k-£4k Yes
Which new models have most potential?
• Council House Building• Leverage Models
– National Housing Trust– Local Partnership Models
• Shared Equity• Co-operative Models• Infrastructure Loan Fund• Planning Agreements• Competitive Bidding• Landlord Actions
– Cost reduction– Sharing services and
rationalisation– Increasing revenue
• New Sources of Finance– EIB– Bond Funding– Institutional Investment– Housing Investment Bank– Equity Release
• Cross-Subsidy• Reducing Barriers to
Investment
Improving Choice: Housing Options
More housing products = more choice and complexity
Advisory/Options approach- Preventing homelessness (e.g. N Ayrshire)- Tackling housing lists (e.g. Perth and Kinross)- Reviewing housing circumstances
….and we need to continue to make progress on Common Housing Registers and improve the mobility/choice of social tenants……
Preserving social rented stock
Percentage of housing stock by tenure: Scotland
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
Pe
rce
nta
ge
of
tota
l d
we
llin
gs
Owner occupied Private rented Social Housing
Making better use of the existing stock
How couldwe encourage
people to downsize when their
circumstances change?
% Over and Under Occupancy by Tenure, 2008
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
owner-occupier LA/other public HA/co-op private-rented
Tenure
% W
ithin
Eac
h Te
nure
Below Standard Compliance with bedroom standard
I bedroom above standard 2 or more bedrooms above standard
Housing and support for independent living
• How to plan for an 84% increase in people living beyond 75, by 2033?
• How to deliver better choice and fairer opportunities for disabled people?
• How to maintain and develop vital support, adaptations and care and repair services?
• Who pays?• What role for volunteers and social enterprises?• How to make public services work better
together?
Are Rents Fair?And
Private Rents are roughly twice as high as social rents
£-
£10
£20
£30
£40
£50
£60
£70
East
Ren
frews
hire
East
Ayr
shire
Sout
h Ay
rshi
re
Midl
othia
n
Shet
land
Islan
ds
Inve
rclyd
e
East
Lot
hian
Sout
h La
nark
shire
Edin
burg
h, C
ity o
f
North
Lan
arks
hire
North
Ayr
shire
Renf
rews
hire
Gla
sgow
City
East
Dun
barto
nshi
re
Aber
deen
City
Clac
kman
nans
hire
Wes
t Lot
hian
High
land
Stirl
ing
Dund
ee C
ity
Aber
deen
shire
Fife
Mor
ay
Ork
ney
Isla
nds
Dum
fries
& G
allow
ay
Wes
t Dun
barto
nshi
re
Eilea
n Si
ar
Angu
s
Perth
& K
inros
s
Argy
ll & B
ute
Falki
rk
Scot
tish
Bord
ers
Local Authority
Poun
ds p
er W
eek
LA RentsRSL Rents
Who is the Social Rented Sector for?
Tenure by Income Decile GroupShould
a tenancybe for life if
circumstances change?
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Lowest 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Highest
Decile Group
Perc
enta
ge
Owner Occupier Private Rented Social Rented
Steady progress on housing quality…
Number of households Passing and Failing the Scottish Housing Quality Standard
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
1400000
1600000
1800000
2000000
2004/05 2005/06 2007 2008
Year
Num
ber o
f Hou
seho
lds
Pass Fail
But more needed…particularly in the private sector
National Home Energy Rating (NHER) by Tenure An estimated£16bn of
investmentis requiredto achieve
a 42%reduction in
CO2 emissions.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Owner-occupier Private-rented All Private Sector LA/other public HA/co-op All Social Sector
Tenure
Per
cent
age
in E
ach
Cat
egor
y
Good Moderate Poor
Successful Places• Places for communities which will last• Good placemaking key to sustainable lifestyles
and good health• What have we learned about mixed-tenure
developments and good design?• As part of the Economic Recovery Plan, the
Government has acted to ease cashflow pressures on developers.
• How do we continue to develop and fund well-designed communities during the downturn?
Designing Streets – Polnoon ExemplarSuccessful Places: Polnoon Exemplar
What’s stopping more developments of this quality happening?
We all need to up our game and work together
• Government• Landlords (private and social)• Lenders• Institutional Investors• Developers• Households and individuals
……what would you do differently?
• Best way is on-line• You can post comments or tweet at any time• Or you can e-mail or write to us at:
Housing Policy Debate, Scottish Government,
1H Victoria Quay, Edinburgh, EH6 6QQ
How can I join in?