A Future Oriented Approach to China-Japan Relations For A talk at Sagamore Institute, 26 March 2013 Shunji Cui Fulbright Scholar-in-Residence, 2012-13

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A Future Oriented Approach to China-Japan Relations For A talk at Sagamore Institute, 26 March 2013 Shunji Cui Fulbright Scholar-in-Residence, 2012-13 Marian University Slide 2 A Future Oriented Approach to China-Japan Relations 1. The Current State of China-Japan Relations Tensions over East China Sea Disputes 2. Why It Has Proved to be So Difficult? 3. The Drums of War or Can it be Avoided? 4. How do China and Japan Move towards a Future Oriented Direction? Slide 3 Slide 4 Fishing Platform/Pinnacle Islands / Diaoyu/Senkaku (D/S) Islands A chain of tiny 8 islands 5 uninhabitable islands, 3 barren rocks All are volcanic formations from the Neocene age Largest Island Diaoyutai (S) Uotsurisima(J) surface area: 3.5 skm. Slide 5 Geographical Location 120 nautical miles northeast of Taiwan 200 nm east of PRC 200 nm southwest of Naha, Okinawa Slide 6 Territorial Waters 12nm The sovereign territory of the state But foreign ships (both military and civilian) are allowed innocent passage through it Exclusive Economic Zone200nm Control of all economic resources, including fishing, mining, oil exploration, and any pollution of those resources. UN Convention on the Law of the Sea,1982 Slide 7 D/S Island Disputes: Downward Spirals? 2012-9-11: Japans nationalization of 3 of the Islands Followed by Chinese maritime surveillance ships entering into disputed waters even within 12nm Small aircraft of Chinas State Oceanic Bureau flew into airspace over the D/S Japan deploying Airborne Warning and Control Systems (AWACS) Global Times (China) argued: we need to prepare for the worst, if Japan not be deterred. Situation worse than 2005 Possible War? Slide 8 2012 over Islands row Slide 9 Why It Has Proved to be So Difficult? Conflictual Claims Political & Emotional Slide 10 Japans Claim: I 1885~: 10-y survey, terra nullius (land without owner) 1895-1-14: Meiji Cabinets decision to incorporate the islands into Japanese territory actual control. 1896-4-1: Placed under the administration of Ishigaki, Yaeyama District, Okinawa Prefecture 1895-4-17: Signing the Treaty of Shimonoseki 1895-5: the Treaty came to effect. Slide 11 Japan's Claim: After WWII 1951: The San Francisco Treaty (US-J) Japan renounced claims to a number of territories and islands including Taiwan the Nansei Shoto (Nansei islands) came under US trusteeship 1971: the Okinawa reversion deal Nansei Shoto returned to Japan The islands are under Japans control No disputes over the Islands China is just for oil Slide 12 Chinas Claim: Historical 1 Not terra nullius, but have been part of its territory since ancient times. Historical Records: 1430, (Fair winds for escort), earliest, a non-official Chinese navigational record. 1534,, earliest official record of the Imperial Envoy's Visit to Ryky. Those islands served as important fishing grounds administered by the province of Taiwan. Slide 13 Chinas Claim: Historical 2 1874: Japan took Ryukyu Islands Japan took Ryukyu Islands (Okinawa) from China by force when Chinese Qing Dynasty was involved in several wars with other foreign countries However, the Diaoyu Islands still remained under the administration of Taiwan, a part of China. 1895: The Treaty of Shimonoseki After being defeated by Japan in the Sino-Japan War (1894-95), China ceded Taiwan to Japan under the Shimonoseki Treaty. As a part of Taiwan, the Diaoyutai Islands belonged to Japan at that time. Slide 14 Chinas Claim: after WWII Cairo Declaration (1943) & Potsdam Proclamation (1945) Taiwan was returned to China at the end of World War II The Japanese government accepted the terms that stated in these documents "...that all the territories Japan has stolen from the Chinese, such as Manchuria and Formosa(Taiwan) shall be restored to the Republic of China. Thus, deny the effects of 1951 San Francisco Treaty (US-J). Slide 15 Difficulty II: Sovereignty and Beyond Japan: Actual Control No sovereign Issue Concern of Okinawa Chinas Rise, perceived assertiveness, and threat China: Emotional reminding its weakness and humiliation, and Historical injustice in modern history. Vulnerable to Nationalist sentiments US Asian Policy Slide 16 Shared Interests in Deescalating Their Relations Economic Impacts (by the end of 2012): Nissans sales in China have fallen 5.3 % to 1.18 million units, Toyotas by 4.9 % to 840,000 units, Japanese direct investment in China fell by almost a third (ASEAN looking for opportunity) Tourism (2012-9-21) ANA: nearly 4,000 Japanese canceled their plans to visit China. The Japanese National Tourist Association: 20% drop in numbers visiting Japan from China Slide 17 Japanese car sales in China in 2012 Source: China Daily 2013-1-8 Slide 18 Shared Willingness and Efforts Natsuo Yamaguchis meeting with Xi Jinping (in Beijing, 2013-1). The eighth Tokyo-Beijing Forum (in Tokyo, July 2, 2012). Dialogue on D/S Island disputes (in HZ, 2012-10) The International Politics of East Asia and the East China Sea (in Hangzhou, China, December 14-15, 2012) To Japan-China Dialogue: Toward a Future Oriented Japan-China Relationship (in Tokyo, Jnuary 23-24, 2013). Strong calling for wisdom in settling territorial disputes Slide 19 What Can be Done for A Future Oriented Relations? 1. Managing the Disputes 2. Managing the Great Power Relations 3. Enhancing People-to-People Relations Slide 20 1. Managing the Disputes 1. Understand/Accept the New Reality China: Japans nationalization of Islands Japan: existing disputes over sovereignty 2. Shelving the dispute & Searching for joint cooperation Fishing; Energy 3. No entry into disputed area Set up hot lines to prepare for contingency Establish UN Environmental Protection Areas Slide 21 Japan and China have struck a deal for the joint development of a gas field in the East China Sea, resolving a protracted bilateral dispute. BBC, 18 June 2008 China: Chunxiao Gas Field Slide 22 2. Managing the Great Power Relations China: Clear vision of regional/global governance Stronger demonstration of its Peaceful rise Japan: Accepting Chinas rise US Policy of pivot Asia: accommodating China Slide 23 3. Enhancing People-to-People Relations China-Japan: move beyond history forward looking Reconciliation Kim Dae-jung examples Constructing Friendly Relations Cross-Strait Example Identity among people in Taiwan Slide 24 Thank You !!!