9,296,accesibility theory

8/8/2019 9,296,Accesibility Theory

1/49

3267*5$'2(1/,1*h67,&$,QVWLWXWRGHOLWHUDWXUD\FLHQFLDVGHOOHQJXDMH

'DWRVGHOWH[WR

7tWXORGHOOLEUR 7H[WUHSUHVHQWDWLRQOLQJXLVWLFDQGSV\FKROLQJXLVWLF

DVSHFWV(GLWRUHV 7HG6DQGHUV-RRVW6FKLOSHURRUG:LOEHUW6SRRUHQ

$XWRU 0LUD$ULG7tWXORGHOFDStWXOR $FFHVVLELOLW\WKHRU\DQRYHUYLHZ$xRGHSXEOLFDFLyQ &LXGDG 3KLODGHOSKLD(GLWRULDO +XPDQ&RJQLWLYH3URFHVVLQJ1GH3iJLQDV

,QGLFDFLRQHV

/RV Q~PHURV SXHVWRV D SLH GHSiJLQDFRUUHVSRQGHQ DOQ~PHURGH SiJLQD GHO WH[WRRULJLQDO'HHVWHPRGRODSDODEUDTXHHVWpVHxDODGDFRQHOSLHGHSiJLQDTXHGLJDSRUHMHPSOR3DJFRUUHVSRQGHUiDOILQDOGHODSiJLQDGHORULJLQDO&yPRFLWDUHVWHWH[WR


2/49

&+$37(5

$&&(66,%,/,7


3/49

RQWKHLQWULFDWHUHWULHYDOSURFHVVLQYROYHGLQUHIHUHQWLDODFWVSHUIRUPHGE\13V$ULHO

DDDQGRQZDUGV7KH VWUXFWXUH RIWKLVSDSHU LVDV IROORZV6HFWLRQ SUHVHQWVWKHEDVLFFODLPV

DQG ILQGLQJV RI DFFHVVLELOLW\ WKHRU\ HPSKDVL]LQJ DVSHFWV RI WKH WKHRU\ ZKLFK KDYHVRPHWLPHVEHHQPLVXQGHUVWRRG6HFWLRQVXPVXSUHFHQWUHVHDUFKZKLFKFRUURERUDWHV DQG IXUWKHU GHYHORSV DFFHVVLELOLW\ WKHRU\ ,Q 6HFWLRQ , DUJXH WKDW

ZKLOHDFFHVVLELOLW\WKHRU\LVFRJQLWLYHO\PRWLYDWHGDFFHVVLELOLW\PDUNLQJFRQVWLWXWHVDOLQJXLVWLF SURSHU SKHQRPHQRQ 6HFWLRQ FRPSDUHV DFFHVVLELOLW\ WKHRU\ ZLWK RWKHUWKHRULHV RI UHIHUHQFH DQG 6HFWLRQ OLVWV RSHQ TXHVWLRQV IRU OLQJXLVWLF DQGSV\FKROLQJXLVWLFUHVHDUFKRIDQDSKRUD

$FFHVVLELOLW\WKHRU\%DVLFFODLPVDQGILQGLQJV ,QWURGXFLQJDFFHVVLELOLW\WKHRU\$FFHVVLELOLW\ WKHRU\ DUJXHV WKDW FRQWH[W UHWULHYDOV RI SLHFHV RI LQIRUPDWLRQ IURP

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

)XOOQDPHPRGLILHU!IXOOQDPH!ORQJGHILQLWHGHVFULSWLRQ!VKRUWGHILQLWHGHVFULSWLRQ!ODVWQDPH!ILUVWQDPH!GLVWDOGHPRQVWUDWLYHPRGLILHU!SUR[LPDWHGHPRQVWUDWLYHPRGLILHU!GLVWDOGHPRQVWUDWLYH13!SUR[LPDWHGHPRQVWUDWLYH13!GLVWDO GHPRQVWUDWLYH 13 ! SUR[LPDWH GHPRQVWUDWLYH 13 ! VWUHVVHGSURQRXQJHVWXUH! VWUHVVHG SURQRXQ ! XQVWUHVVHG SURQRXQ ! FOLWLFL]HGSURQRXQ!YHUEDOSHUVRQLQIOHFWLRQV!]HUR

LL3iJGHORULJLQDO


4/49

$SRLQWWKDWQHHGVFODULILFDWLRQLVWKHUHOHYDQWGRPDLQLQZKLFKGHJUHHRIDFFHVVLELOLW\LV DVVHVVHG :KDW LV WKH EDVLV IRU RXU GHWHUPLQLQJ WKDW D VSHFLILF PHQWDOUHSUHVHQWDWLRQ LVRI KLJK RURI ORZ GHJUHH RIDFFHVVLELOLW\ LQ WKH DEVHQFH RIGLUHFWWDSSLQJRIWKHEUDLQ"2QHSRWHQWLDOVRXUFHZKLFKGHWHUPLQHVGHJUHHRIDFFHVVLELOLW\LVWKHSK\VLFDOFRQWH[WRIWKHVSHHFKVLWXDWLRQ$QRWKHULVWKHGLVFRXUVHZRUOGZKHUH

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

,KDYHDUJXHGWKDWWKHIRUPIXQFWLRQFRUUHODWLRQVRQWKHDFFHVVLELOLW\PDUNLQJVFDOHQDPHO\ZKLFKUHIHUULQJH[SUHVVLRQVFRGHZKLFKGHJUHHRIDFFHVVLELOLW\DUHQRWDUELWUDU\ 7KUHH SDUWLDOO\ RYHUODSSLQJ FULWHULD DUH LQYROYHG ,QIRUPDWLYLW\ WKHDPRXQWRIOH[LFDOLQIRUPDWLRQULJLGLW\WKHDELOLW\WRSLFNDXQLTXHUHIHUHQWEDVHG

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

%DVHGRQSUHYLRXVZRUNPRVWQRWDEO\6DQIRUG*DUURG*LYyQDQGP\RZQ,KDYHVXJJHVWHGWKDWZHFDQWDSWKHGHJUHHRIDFFHVVLELOLW\DVVRFLDWHGZLWKDJLYHQPHQWDOUHSUHVHQWDWLRQDWDJLYHQPRPHQWE\FRQVLGHULQJSURSHUWLHVRI

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

LLL3iJGHORULJLQDO


5/49

SHUVRQ D UHODWLYHO\ ORZ GHJUHH RI DFFHVVLELOLW\ $QRWKHU VDOLHQFH GLVWLQFWLRQGHSHQGV RQ WKH DXWRPDWLFLW\VWHUHRW\S\ RI WKH LQIHUHQFH UHTXLUHG LQ JHQHUDWLQJ D*LYHQQHVV VWDWXVLY IRU DQ HQWLW\ ,QIHUUHG HQWLWLHV FRPH LQ GLIIHUHQW GHJUHHV RIDFFHVVLELOLW\VHH6DQIRUG*DUURG$ULHOD2DNKLOO*DUQKDP*HUQVEDFKHU &DLQ *XQGHO +HGEHUJ =DFKDUVNL *DUQKDP 7UD[OHU2DNKLOO *HUQVEDFKHU0DWVXL)UDPHLQGXFHGHQWLWLHV HJZDLWHUVLQ

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

7KHUHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQWKHDQWHFHGHQWDQGWKHDQDSKRUWKHGHJUHHRIWKHLU

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

,QVXP,KDYHDUJXHGWKDWUHIHUULQJH[SUHVVLRQVDUHFKRVHQDFFRUGLQJWRWKHDVVHVVHGGHJUHHRIDFFHVVLELOLW\RIWKHPHQWDOHQWLWLHVFRUUHVSRQGLQJWRWKHP'HJUHHRIDFFHVVLELOLW\GHSHQGVRQIDFWRUVUHODWHGWRWKHLQKHUHQWVDOLHQFHRIWKHHQWLW\DQGRQWKHXQLW\EHWZHHQWKHDQWHFHGHQWDQGWKHDQDSKRU,QDGGLWLRQWKHFRQYHQWLRQDOGHJUHHRIDFFHVVLELOLW\FRGHGE\UHIHUULQJH[SUHVVLRQVLVPRWLYDWHGE\WKHLUUHODWLYHLQIRUPDWLYLW\ULJLGLW\DQGDWWHQXDWLRQ

LY3iJGHORULJLQDO

Y3iJGHORULJLQDO


6/49

$FFHVVLELOLW\DVDFRPSOH[FRQFHSW,KDYHWULHGWRHPSKDVL]HWKDWDVVHVVLQJGHJUHHRIDFFHVVLELOLW\LVDFRPSOH[PDWWHUVLQFHPXOWLSOHIDFWRUVDUHLQYROYHG,WLVWKHFRPSOH[FRQFHSWRIDFFHVVLELOLW\ZKLFK

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

HQWDLOLQJ D ORZHU GHJUHH RI DFFHVVLELOLW\ LQ WHUPV RI GLVWDQFH 7KH UHDVRQ LV WKDWWKHVH GLVWDQW UHIHUHQFHV DUH PRVWO\ UHIHUHQFHV WR WKHJOREDO GLVFRXUVHWRSLF 'LVFRXUVH WRSLFV FDQ PDLQWDLQ D UHODWLYHO\ KLJK GHJUHH RI DFFHVVLELOLW\ GHVSLWH WKHODUJHU GLVWDQFH 7KH VDPH FODVKZRXOG H[SODLQ ZK\ LWLV WKDW ZKHQ WZR HQWLWLHVDUHLQWURGXFHG HJ0D\D NLVVHG 5DFKHO WKH ILUVW PHQWLRQ WRSLFDO EXW UHODWLYHO\

GLVWDQW 13 0D\D LV ODWHU FRGHG DV DQ XQVWUHVVHG SURQRXQ D KLJKHU DFFHVVLELOLW\PDUNHU ZKHUHDV WKH PRUH UHFHQW QRQWRSLFDO 13 5DFKHO LV FRGHG E\ D VWUHVVHGSURQRXQDORZHUDFFHVVLELOLW\PDUNHUHJ DQGWKHQVKH6+(!6LPLODUO\%UHQQDQIRXQGWKDWQRQSURPLQHQWHQWLWLHVOHVVVDOLHQWZHUHUHIHUUHGWRE\IXOO13VORZ DFFHVVLELOLW\ PDUNHUV UDWKHU WKDQ E\YL SURQRXQV KLJK DFFHVVLELOLW\ PDUNHUVGHVSLWHWKHUHFHQF\RIWKHLUPHQWLRQKLJKDFFHVVLELOLW\

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

LV QRW LQVWDQWDQHRXVO\ KLJKO\ DFFHVVLEOH HQRXJK IRU IXUWKHU UHIHUHQFHV E\ KLJKDFFHVVLELOLW\ PDUNHUV DV WKH\ QRWH WKHPVHOYHV LQ QRWH VHH $ULHO &ODQF\'X%RLV'X%RLV7KRPSVRQ7DR6LPLODUO\WXUQLQLWLDOSRVLWLRQVDUHH[SHFWHGWRFRQWDLQORZHUDFFHVVLELOLW\PDUNHUVWKH\IRUPD GLVFRXUVHEUHDN5LHGHUDQG0XORNDQGRYWKHQH[SODLQWKHVXUSULVLQJO\KLJKRFFXUUHQFHRI]HURHVDQGFOLWLFL]HGSURQRXQVIRUILUVWSHUVRQUHIHUHQFHVLQLQLWLDOWXUQSRVLWLRQLQ+HEUHZE\QRWLQJWKDWWKHSUHFHGLQJWXUQZDVD TXHVWLRQDGGUHVVHGWRWKHVSHDNHU

YL3iJGHORULJLQDO


7/49

LQ DQ RYHUZKHOPLQJ PDMRULW\ RI WKHVH FDVHV :H PXVW QRW WKHUHIRUH PLVWDNH WKHLQGLYLGXDO IDFWRUV FRQWULEXWLQJ WR GHJUHH RI DFFHVVLELOLW\ HJ WXUQLQLWLDO SRVLWLRQIRUFULWHULDOFRQGLWLRQVRQOLQJXLVWLFXVDJH

$VWXG\RIUHVXPSWLYHSURQRXQVYHUVXVJDSXVDJHLQFRQYHUVDWLRQDO+HEUHZUHODWLYH FODXVHV $ULHO UHYHDOHG WKDW QRQUHVWULFWLYH UHODWLYH FODXVHV UHODWLYHORZHUGHJUHHRIDFFHVVLELOLW\RIWKHKHDGZKHQWKHUHODWLYL]HGSRVLWLRQLVSURFHVVHG

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

,Q JHQHUDO , IRXQG WKDW D FRPELQDWLRQ RI DFFHVVLELOLW\ IDFWRUV KHDG FRPSOH[LW\ GLVWDQFH JUDPPDWLFDO UROH RI WKH UHODWLYL]HG SRVLWLRQ DQG UHVWULFWLYHQHVVSUHGLFWVWKHRFFXUUHQFHRIJDSVDQGUHVXPSWLYHSURQRXQVEHWWHUWKDQDQ\RQHRIWKH

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

7KH IRUPIXQFWLRQ FRUUHODWLRQ IRU UHIOH[LYH SURQRXQV HJ KHUVHOI DOVR

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

7KHLU DQWHFHGHQWV DUH TXLWH DFFHVVLEOH LQ VRPH DEVROXWH VHQVH EXW WKH\ DUH QRWH[SHFWHGDQGWKHUHIRUHDFFHVVLEOH LQWKHVSHFLILFUROHWKH\DFWXDOO\RFFXULQZKLFKLVFRGHGE\WKHUHIOH[LYH7KHVDPHDSSOLHVWRWKHFRQWUDVWLYHSURQRXQVLQ'XWFKDVDQDO\]HGE\&RPULH

,W LV LOOXPLQDWLQJ WR FRPSDUH ORFDOO\ ERXQG FRDUJXPHQWV RI WKH VDPH YHUEDFFXVDWLYHV DQG REMHFWV RI SUHSRVLWLRQV ZLWK ORFDOO\ ERXQG QRQDUJXPHQWV LQ 2OG(QJOLVK .HHQDQ 7KH ODWWHU DUH UHIHUHQWLDOO\ GHSHQGHQW RQ WKH VXEMHFW DQG

YLL3iJGHORULJLQDO


8/49

WKH\PDUNDKLJKLQYROYHPHQWRIWKHUHIHUHQWLQWKHHYHQWHJ7KHNLQJZDONHGKLPWR/RQGRQ7KHVH KLJK LQYROYHPHQW QRQDUJXPHQWV DUH FRGHGYLLL E\ SURQRXQV %XWFRDUJXPHQWVZKLFKDUHREMHFWVRIYHUEVRIVHULRXVSHUVRQDOKDUPHJWKUHDWHQNLOODUHLQYDULDEO\FRGHGE\SURQRXQVVHOI7KHUHDVRQLVWKDWFRDUJXPHQWVRIWKHVDPHYHUEHVSHFLDOO\RIWKHDERYHNLQGDUHH[SHFWHGWREHGLVMRLQWLQUHIHUHQFHVLQFHZHDUHH[SHFWHGQRWWRKLWRUWKUHDWHQRXUVHOYHV)DOW])DUPHU+DUQLVK

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

DYHU\KLJKDFFHVVLELOLW\FRQWH[WQDPHO\WKH&FRPPDQGGRPDLQ:KHQWKHHQWLW\DOWKRXJKKLJKO\DFFHVVLEOHLVQRWSUHGLFWHGWRDSSHDULQDFHUWDLQUROHLWVGHJUHHRIDFFHVVLELOLW\LVUHODWLYHO\ORZGHVSLWHWKHVKRUWGLVWDQFHIURPWKHSUHYLRXVPHQWLRQDQGGHVSLWHWKHIDFWWKDWLWVSUHYLRXVFRGLQJPDUNVLWDVKLJKO\DFFHVVLEOHVXEMHFW

)RU WKH VDPH UHDVRQ QDPHO\ WKH FRPSOH[LW\ LQYROYHG LQ DFFHVVLELOLW\ DVVHVVPHQW,EHOLHYH*LYyQZDVWRRKDVW\LQKLVFRQFOXVLRQWKDWDFFHVVLELOLW\LVUHGXFLEOH WR D ELQDU\ GLVWLQFWLRQ LQ ODQJXDJH *LYyQ ILQGV WKDW WKH GHILQLWHGHVFULSWLRQVLQKLVGDWDUHWULHYHDQWHFHGHQWVZKLFKRFFXUUHGDWDYDULHW\RIGLVWDQFHVXQOLNH]HURHVDQGSURQRXQVZKLFKUHWULHYHGLVFRXUVHHQWLWLHVPHQWLRQHGFODXVHVEDFNIRUWKHPRVWSDUW:HVKRXOGUHPHPEHUKRZHYHUWKDWDFFHVVLELOLW\FDQQRWEHHVWDEOLVKHG RQ WKH EDVLV RI RQH IDFWRU GLVWDQFH LQ WKLV FDVH DQG WKDW GHILQLWHGHVFULSWLRQV GR QRW DFWXDOO\ FRQVWLWXWH D KRPRJHQRXV FDWHJRU\ RI UHIHUULQJ

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

GLYHUJHQFHVSURGXFHGLQRUGHUWRJHQHUDWHVSHFLDOLPSOLFDWXUHVVHHEHORZ7KHDFFHVVLELOLW\ IDFWRUV FRQVLGHUHG E\ 7RROH ZHUH 'LVWDQFH ZKHWKHU DQDSKRULFH[SUHVVLRQVFRUHIHU ZLWKDQWHFHGHQWV LQWKH VDPH RULQWKH ODVW SURSRVLWLRQ LQWKHVDPHRULQDSUHYLRXVHSLVRGH7RSLFDOLW\KRZPDQ\WLPHVWKHDQWHFHGHQWZDVPHQWLRQHG LQ WKH ODVW IRXU SURSRVLWLRQV &RPSHWLWLRQ KRZ PDQ\ PDWFKLQJLQWHUYHQLQJHQWLWLHVWKHUHZHUHEHWZHHQWKHODVWPHQWLRQRIWKHDQWHFHGHQWDQGWKH

YLLL

3iJGHORULJLQDOL[3iJGHORULJLQDO


9/49

DQDSKRU 6HFRQG ZKHQ , GLYLGHG GHILQLWH GHVFULSWLRQV LQWR ORZHU DQG KLJKHUDFFHVVLELOLW\ PDUNHUV DFFRUGLQJ WR WKHLU GHJUHH RI LQIRUPDWLYLW\ FRQVLVWHQWGLVWULEXWLRQDO GLIIHUHQFHV ZHUH GLVFHUQLEOH ,Q $ULHO S , SUHVHQWHG GDWDZKLFKVKRZHGWKDW ZKHUHDVWKHPDMRULW\RIGHILQLWHGHVFULSWLRQVFRPSRVHGRI FRQWHQWZRUGV ZHUHGLVFRXUVH DQDSKRULFKLJKHUDFFHVVLELOLW\ WKHPDMRULW\ RI WKH GHILQLWH GHVFULSWLRQV ZKLFK FRQWDLQ FRQWHQW ZRUGV ZHUH ILUVW

PHQWLRQV ORZHU DFFHVVLELOLW\ ,Q $ULHO , GLVWLQJXLVKHG EHWZHHQ GHILQLWHGHVFULSWLRQVRIDQGFRQWHQWZRUGVDVZHOODVGHILQLWH13VUHODWLYHFODXVHVDOODVLQWURGXFHUVRIQHZGLVFRXUVHHQWLWLHV,QGHHGWKHORZHUWKHDFFHVVLELOLW\RIWKH

HQWLW\LQWURGXFHGWKHPRUHLQIRUPDWLYHWKHUHIHUULQJH[SUHVVLRQZDV 2QWKHQRQH[FOXVLYLW\RIDFFHVVLELOLW\FRQVLGHUDWLRQV:KLOHDFFHVVLELOLW\FRQVLGHUDWLRQVDUHD FHQWUDODVSHFWRIUHIHUHQWLDOFKRLFHVWKH\E\QRPHDQVH[KDXVWWKHVHOHFWLRQSURFHVV&RQWH[WXDODVVXPSWLRQVPXVWEHUHOLHGXSRQLQ RUGHUWR DVFHUWDLQ WKDW D UHIHUHQWLDO UDWKHU WKDQ DWWULEXWLYH RU JHQHULF XVH KDVEHHQ PDGH VHH 0XHOOHU/XVW *LEEV 5HOHYDQFHEDVHG FRQVLGHUDWLRQV KHOS

VHOHFWDPRQJHTXDOO\DFFHVVLEOHSRWHQWLDOUHIHUULQJH[SUHVVLRQVVXFKDVP\QHLJKERUWKHPD\RU0DUNDQG WKHLGLRW ,QIHUHQWLDO SURFHVVHVDUH DOVRFUXFLDOO\LQYROYHGLQGHWHUPLQLQJUHIHUHQFHDVLQ+RUULILHGVKHVQDWFKHGWKHPHDWMIURPWKHGRJa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

IRU GDWD DQG DQDO\VLV RI UHIHUHQFHV WR WKH RWKHU VHH $ULHO DQG VHH0XONHUQS6XFKYLRODWLRQVDUHYHU\PXFKVRFLDOO\DQGFXOWXUDOO\ERXQG,QGHHGWKHUH LV D ULFKDQWKURSRORJLFDO OLQJXLVWLFV OLWHUDWXUH RQ QDPLQJ SDWWHUQV LQGLIIHUHQW VRFLHWLHV ZKLFK VKRZV KRZ WKH XQLYHUVDO DFFHVVLELOLW\ PDUNLQJ VFDOH LVHPEHGGHGLQVRFLDOQRUPV

,KHUHPHQWLRQRQHVXFKH[DPSOHRIDFXOWXUDOGLIIHUHQFHIURPWKH1D\DNDDKXQWHUJDWKHUHUJURXSLQ,QGLD%LUG'DYLGILQGVWKDWQDPHVDUHQRWWKHULJLGGHVLJQDWRUVZHXVXDOO\WKLQNRI7KH\IXQFWLRQTXLWHGLIIHUHQWO\DQGDUHUDUHO\XVHGLQWKLVVRFLHW\&KLOGUHQDUHUHIHUUHGWRDVJLUORUER\RULQUHODWLRQDOWHUPVHJGDXJKWHUHYHQE\QRQSDUHQWV$GXOWVDUHPRVWO\UHIHUUHGWRE\NLQWHUPVZKLFKLVD PDUN RI LQWLPDF\ UDWKHU WKDQ WKHLU QDPHV ,W LV PRVWO\ DGROHVFHQWV WKDW DUHUHIHUUHGWRE\QLFNQDPHV%XWQDPHVDUHQRWHYHQQHFHVVDULO\FRQVWDQWLQDSHUVRQV

OLIH3HRSOHPD\KDYHDQXPEHURIQDPHVVLPXOWDQHRXVO\%LUG'DYLGQRWHVWKDWKHULQIRUPDQWV VRPHWLPHV DVNHG SHRSOH ZKDW WKH\ DUH FDOOHG WKHVH GD\V HYHQ WKRXJKPHPEHUV RI WKH FRPPXQLW\ OLYH LQ H[WUHPH SUR[LPLW\ WR HDFK RWKHU DQG DUH LQ

FRQVWDQW FRQWDFW HYHQ LQ WKHLU KRPHKXWV ,Q FRQWUDVW 'RZQLQJ S DUJXHVWKDWEDUHSURSHUQDPHVDUHFRUHFRJQLWLRQDOVDQGDUHXVHGZKHQSUHVHQWLQWKHWHUULWRU\RI LQIRUPDWLRQ RI ERWKSDUWLFLSDQWVRIWKHFRQYHUVDWLRQ 2QO\ ZKHQWKHUHIHUHQWVGRQRWPHHWWKLVFRQGLWLRQRWKHUUHIHUULQJH[SUHVVLRQVDUHXVHGHJ

[3iJGHORULJLQDO


10/49

WKLV SURSHU QDPH ,W UHPDLQV WR EH VHHQ KRZ JHQHUDO WKLV SULQFLSOH LV , KDGLQGHSHQGHQWO\PDGHVLPLODUFODLPVIRU+HEUHZ$ULHOSSLQYLHZRIWKH1D\DNDSDWWHUQ

1RWHWKDW DOWKRXJKDFFHVVLELOLW\ WKHRU\ GHILQHV WKHUHOHYDQWGHJUHH RI DFFHVVLELOLW\WREHWKDWRIWKHDGGUHVVHHDVDVVHVVHGE\WKHVSHDNHUDVSHDNHUPD\SUHWHQGWRVSHDN IRU DQRWKHUDQG VKH WKHQKDV WRDVVXPHWKH GHJUHH RIDFFHVVLELOLW\RI WKH

HQWLW\ DV LW ZRXOG KDYH EHHQ DVVHVVHG E\ WKDW VSHDNHU 7KLV LV ZKDW KDSSHQV LQH[DPSOHDERYHZKHQ)UDQNLVDVVXPLQJWKHWHDFKHUVLGHQWLW\ZKRZLOOEHUHDGLQJ0HOLVVDVSDSHU+HUHIHUVWRDZDNHQHGE\DORZHUDFFHVVLELOLW\PDUNHUWKDWZRUGVLQFHWKHWHDFKHUZLOOKDYHQREDVLVIRUDVVXPLQJWKDWWKHZRUGLVKLJKO\DFFHVVLEOHWR0HOLVVDZKHQUHDGLQJKLVFRPPHQWV

)ROORZLQJ.XQR,KDYHDOVRFODLPHGWKDWKLJKHUDFFHVVLELOLW\PDUNHUVDUHXVHGWRFRGHWKHFKDUDFWHUZKRVHSRLQWRIYLHZLVUHIOHFWHGLQWKHGLVFRXUVH$ULHOSS7KHH[DPSOHVEHORZGHPRQVWUDWHWKLV [LFOHDUO\DQGDUHH[FHUSWV GHVFULELQJ WKH VDPH UDSH E\ WZR +HEUHZ QHZVSDSHUV +DDUHW] DQG0DDULY%RWKQHZVSDSHUVUHOLHGRQWKHVDPHVRXUFHWKH SROLFH UHFRUG DQG KHQFH WKH H[WUDRUGLQDU\ VLPLODULW\ 1RWH WKDW+DDUHW] DQG0DDULYGLIIHULQWKDWRQO\+DDUHW]FOHDUO\DGRSWVWKHYLFWLPVSRLQWRIYLHZ7KLVFDQ

EH VHHQ IURP D WKH FKRLFH RI VXEMHFW UROH LQ GHVFULELQJ WKH PHHWLQJ EHWZHHQ WKHUDSLVWDQGWKHYLFWLP +DDUHW]FKRVHWKHYLFWLP0DDULYFKRVHERWKWKHUDSLVWDQGWKHYLFWLPEWKHFKRLFHRIYHUEIRUWKHUDSLVWVH[SUHVVLQJLQWHUHVWLQKDYLQJVH[ZLWKWKHYLFWLP GHPDQG LQ+DDUHW]DVNHG LQ0DDULY F WKH DGGLWLRQ RI DV D UHVXOWDGYHUELDOLQ0DDULYPDNLQJWKHUDSHVDSSHDUWREHWKHUHVXOWRIWKHYLFWLPVUHIXVDO

L,QWKHFRPSODLQWWKHZRPDQMFODLPHGWKDWRQ0D\MPHW5RWHUL LL7KHQWKHWZRLNGHPDQGHGIURPKHULWRKDYHVH[ZLWKWKHPLN

$FFRUGLQJWRKHUMZKHQMUHIXVHG5RWHULVWDUWHGSXQFKLQJKHUM+DDUHW]

L$FFRUGLQJWRWKHSROLFH5RWHULDQGWKHUDSHYLFWLPMPHWLQWKHEHJLQQLQJRI

0D\LLDQGDWDFHUWDLQSRLQWLNDVNHGWKHUDSHYLFWLPMWRKDYHVH[ZLWKWKHPLN7KLV RQHM UHIXVHG DQG DV D UHVXOW WKH WZRLN FUXHOO\ UDSHG KHUM 0DDULY

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

WKHYLFWLPEXW0DDULYKDVSUHFLVHO\WKHRSSRVLWHUDWLRSURQRXQVYHUVXV]HURHVIRU KHU SURQRXQV KHUH LQFOXGH GHPRQVWUDWLYH SURQRXQV 7KH QHZVSDSHUV GR QRWGLIIHUZLWKUHVSHFWWRWKH]HURSURQRXQUDWLRIRUWKHUDSLVWVDQGWLPHVPRUH]HURHVUHVSHFWLYHO\6LPLODUO\*LYyQILQGVWKDWLQKLVRZQXQSXEOLVKHGQRYHOIRU ZKLFKKHKDV WZR YHUVLRQV RQH IURP WKH SHUVSHFWLYHRI RQH FKDUDFWHU DQG RQH

[L3iJGHORULJLQDO


11/49


12/49

0DHV DQG 1RRUGPDQ DUJXH WKDW D FRPELQDWLRQ RI D GHPRQVWUDWLYHSURQRXQDQGDQRXQSKUDVHLVXVHGZKHQWKH13VHUYHVDSUHGLFDWLRQDOUDWKHUWKDQDQLGHQWLILFDWLRQIXQFWLRQ6XFKH[SUHVVLRQVDUHDFWXDOO\XVHGLQRUGHUWRPRGLI\WKHDGGUHVVHHVUHSUHVHQWDWLRQRIWKHLQWHQGHGHQWLW\$ORZHUDFFHVVLELOLW\PDUNHULVWKHQXVHG IRU VXFK D PDUNHG SXUSRVH 7KH PDUNHG DFFHVVLELOLW\ PDUNHU WKHUH LV DPLVPDWFK EHWZHHQ WKH KLJK GHJUHH RI DFFHVVLELOLW\ DQG WKH DFFHVVLELOLW\ PDUNHU

FKRVHQ FRQYH\V LQIRUPDWLRQ ZKLFK WKH VSHDNHU GLUHFWV WKH DGGUHVVHH WR DFFHVV LQFRQQHFWLRQZLWKWKHUHIHUHQW)RUH[DPSOHZKHQWKHH[SUHVVLRQ7KLV5HDJDQIROORZVWKH VHQWHQFH 5RQDOG 5HDJDQ LV FOHDUO\ VXIIHULQJ IURP PHPRU\ IDLOXUH LW LVLQWHUSUHWHGDVWKH5HDJDQVXIIHULQJIURPPHPRU\IDLOXUHVHHWKHLUH[DPSOH

7DNHQ WRJHWKHU 6HFWLRQV DQG DUJXH WKDW DFFHVVLELOLW\ WKHRU\ LV QRWUHGXFLEOHWRDQ\RQHOLQJXLVWLFSULQFLSOHEHFDXVHGHJUHHRIDFFHVVLELOLW\LVDFRPSOH[SV\FKRORJLFDO FRQFHSW DQG DW WKH VDPH WLPH WKDW DFFHVVLELOLW\ WKHRU\ FDQQRWH[FOXVLYHO\DFFRXQWIRUUHIHUHQWLDOFKRLFHDQGLQWHUSUHWDWLRQ

&RUURERUDWLQJDQGHQULFKLQJDFFHVVLELOLW\WKHRU\,KDYHSUHVHQWHGPDQ\SLHFHVRIHYLGHQFHIRUWKHDSSOLFDELOLW\RIDFFHVVLELOLW\WKHRU\

LQ $ULHO D D 7KH UHDGHU LV UHIHUUHG WR WKRVH VRXUFHV IRU RULJLQDODQDO\VHV RI PLQH DQG IRU H[WHQVLYH UHIHUHQFHV WR RWKHU ZRUNV ZKLFK VXSSRUW WKHDFFHVVLELOLW\ FODLP 0RUH UHFHQW UHVHDUFK KDV FRUURERUDWHG DQG HQULFKHG WKHDSSOLFDELOLW\ RIDFFHVVLELOLW\ WKHRU\ , KHUH UHVWULFWP\VHOI WRFLWLQJ ZRUNV , GLG QRWKDYHDFFHVVWRZKHQLQLWLDOO\SUHVHQWLQJDFFHVVLELOLW\WKHRU\HYHQWKRXJKVRPHKDGEHHQ SXEOLVKHG EHIRUH 0XFK RI WKH ZRUN WR EH PHQWLRQHG ZDV FRQGXFWHGLQGHSHQGHQWO\RIDFFHVVLELOLW\WKHRU\VRPHLVDGLUHFWSURGXFWRILW

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

&RPULH VKRZV KRZ 'XWFK FRQWUDVWLYH SURQRXQV UHIHU WR WKH OHVV

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

[LY

3iJGHORULJLQDO


13/49

KLJKO\ DFFHVVLEOH HJ GLVFRXUVH WRSLFV $VVXPLQJ DQ DFFHVVLELOLW\ GLVWLQFWLRQEHWZHHQVLDQGHOFDQDOVRH[SODLQWKHKLJKHUIUHTXHQF\RI VLWKHKLJKHUDFFHVVLELOLW\PDUNHU ZLWK KXPDQ YHUVXV QRQKXPDQ DQWHFHGHQWV ,Q DGGLWLRQ *DUFLD VSHFLILFDOO\ UHODWHV WKHIDFWWKDWVLGRHV QRW GLVWLQJXLVKIRU JHQGHU WRLWV PDUNLQJDKLJKHU GHJUHH RI DFFHVVLELOLW\P\ WHUPLQRORJ\ WKDQ WKHSURQRPLQDO IRUPV ZKLFKGR7KLVFRUUHVSRQGVWRP\,QIRUPDWLYLW\FULWHULRQIRUDFFHVVLELOLW\PDUNLQJ6KHDOVR

H[DPLQHVWKHUROHRIFRPSHWLQJDQWHFHGHQWVDQGGHWHUPLQHVWKDWWKHPRUHVDOLHQWWKHQRQDQWHFHGHQW FRPSHWLWRU WKH ORZHU WKH DFFHVVLELOLW\ PDUNHU UHTXLUHG IRU WKHDQWHFHGHQW )LQDOO\ *DUFLD ILQGV WKDW WKH KLJKHU DFFHVVLELOLW\ PDUNHU LV SUHIHUUHGZKHQWKHDUJXPHQWLVJRYHUQHG,KDYHVXJJHVWHGWKHVDPHIRUJDSYHUVXVUHVXPSWLYHSURQRXQ XVDJH $ULHO *RYHUQHG DUJXPHQWV DUH PRUHSUHGLFWDEOH DQG KHQFHPRUHDFFHVVLEOH

6DDGL H[DPLQHG WKH (QJOLVK DQG +HEUHZ YHUVLRQV RI RQH FKLOGUHQVVWRU\DQGRQHDGXOWVWRU\+HUILQGLQJVVXSSRUWWKHDFFHVVLELOLW\SUHGLFWLRQV$OOIRXUVRXUFHVVKLIWHGIURPDSUHGRPLQDQWXVHRI]HURHVDQGSURQRXQVWROH[LFDO13VDVWKHGLVWDQFHIURPWKHODVWPHQWLRQRIWKHVDPHHQWLW\ZDVODUJHU7KHVDPHDSSOLHVWRWKHIDFWRU RI FRPSHWLQJ LQWHUYHQLQJ UHIHUHQWV WKH PRUH LQWHUYHQLQJ FKDUDFWHUVPHQWLRQHG WKH KLJKHU WKH OLNHOLKRRG IRU D OH[LFDO 13 WR RFFXU $OO VRXUFHV DOVR

GLVWLQJXLVKHGEHWZHHQWKHPDLQFKDUDFWHUPRUHVDOLHQWPHQWLRQHGPRUHWLPHVDQGD VHFRQGDU\ FKDUDFWHU VR WKDW WKH PDLQ FKDUDFWHU[Y ZDV UHIHUUHG WR E\ KLJKDFFHVVLELOLW\ PDUNHUV PXFK PRUH RIWHQ WKDQ WKH VHFRQGDU\ FKDUDFWHU ,Q ERWKODQJXDJHV WKHUH ZDV DOVR D GLIIHUHQFH EHWZHHQ WKH DGXOW DQG WKH FKLOGUHQV VWRULHVPRUHVRLQ+HEUHZLQWKDWWKHFKLOGUHQVVWRULHVFRQWDLQHGPRUHOH[LFDO13V6DDGLVXJJHVWVWKDWWKLVGLIIHUHQFHLVGXHWRWKHIDFWWKDWDGXOWVZULWLQJIRUFKLOGUHQDVVXPHWKDWFKLOGUHQVVKRUWWHUPPHPRULHVDUHQRWIXOO\GHYHORSHG

0F.RRQ :DUG5DWFOLII DQG 6SURDW WHVWLI\ WRWKH IDFW WKDW GHJUHH RIDFFHVVLELOLW\LV D FRPSOH[ FRQFHSWWKHFRPSRQHQWV RI ZKLFK PD\ZRUNLQ RSSRVLWHGLUHFWLRQVDVZKHQWKHDQWHFHGHQWLVSDUWRIDFRPSRXQGDFFHVVLELOLW\LVORZHUEXWWKH HQWLW\ LV WRSLFDO KLJKHU DFFHVVLELOLW\ .LEULN VKRZV WKDW GHJUHHV RIDFWLYDWLRQ GLFWDWH UHIHUHQWLDO IRUPV LQ 5XVVLDQ QDUUDWLYHV +H DOVR XQGHUVFRUHV WKH

LPSRUWDQFH RI WKH PXOWLSOLFLW\ RI IDFWRUV LQYROYHG LQ GHWHUPLQLQJ GHJUHH RIDFFHVVLELOLW\

7RROHKDVFRQYLQFLQJO\VKRZQKRZGHJUHHRI DFFHVVLELOLW\ZKHQPHDVXUHG E\ D IHZ FULWHULD VHH FDQ H[SODLQ WKH GLVWULEXWLRQ RI UHIHUULQJH[SUHVVLRQVLQIRXUGLVFRXUVH JHQUHV+HUFRQFOXVLRQLVWKDW GHVSLWHWKH VWDWLVWLFDOO\UHOLDEOH GLIIHUHQFHV LQ UHIHUULQJ H[SUHVVLRQV LQ GLIIHUHQW JHQUHV VHH )R[ DFFHVVLELOLW\WKHRU\FDQDFFRXQWIRU UHIHUHQWLDOFKRLFHVLQDOO WKHZULWWHQDQGVSRNHQJHQUHVVKHH[DPLQHG7KHVWDWLVWLFDOGLIIHUHQFHVIRXQGVWHPIURPFRQWH[WXDOIDFWRUVZKLFKGHWHUPLQHZKDWW\SHVRIGLVFRXUVHHQWLWLHVLQWHUPVRIGHJUHHRIDFFHVVLELOLW\WHQGWRRFFXULQGLVFRXUVHVRIGLIIHUHQWJHQUHV,QRWKHUZRUGVDFDVHE\FDVHDQDO\VLVRI WKH UHIHUULQJ H[SUHVVLRQV XVHG LQ DOO WKH JHQUHV UHYHDOHG WKH VDPH DFFHVVLELOLW\IRUPIXQFWLRQFRUUHODWLRQVEROHIRXQGWKDWDFFHVVLELOLW\PDUNLQJYLRODWLRQVDUHRQO\

SHUIRUPHG LQ RUGHU WR DFKLHYH VSHFLDO REMHFWLYHV HJ ORZ DFFHVVLELOLW\ PDUNHUV WRFODULI\DWWKHDGGUHVVHHVUHTXHVWWRGHILQHDWHUPHWFVHHDOVR$ULHO3DUW,,,0DHV1RRUGPDQ9RQN+XVWLQ[6LPRQV'ROPDQWRRIRXQGQR GLIIHUHQFHV LQ UHIHUHQWLDO FKRLFH EHWZHHQ FKLOGUHQ IURP KLJK DQG ORZ

VRFLRHFRQRPLF EDFNJURXQGV %RWK JURXSV FRPSOLHG ZLWK DFFHVVLELOLW\ WKHRU\

[Y3iJGHORULJLQDO


14/49

GHJUHH RI DFFHVVLELOLW\ PHDVXUHG DV D FRPELQHG IXQFWLRQ RI GLVWDQFH IURP ODVWPHQWLRQDQGWKHLPSRUWDQFHRIWKHFKDUDFWHUWRWKHVWRU\

.URQURGDQG(QJHOUHDFKHGVLPLODUFRQFOXVLRQVLQWKHLUH[DPLQDWLRQRIUHIHUHQWLDOIRUPVXVHGLQQHZVSDSHUKHDGOLQHVVHHDOVR-XFNHU7KH\IRXQGQRJHQUH GLIIHUHQFHV EHWZHHQ WKH KLJK EURZ VXEVFULSWLRQ SDSHU DQG WKH QHZV VWDQGSRSXODU SDSHUV DQG EHWZHHQ WKH GLIIHUHQW VHFWLRQV ZLWKLQ WKH SDSHUV IURQW SDJH

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

D $UDIDWL LQYLWHG .DGDILM WR SUD\ LQ -HUXVDOHPN ZKHQ N ZLOO EH WKH

3DOHVWLQLDQFDSLWDOE7KH3DOHVWLQLDQDXWKRULW\FKDLU


15/49

7KHVDPHORZDFFHVVLELOLW\DQDSKRUVDUHKDUGHUWRSURFHVVLIWKHDQWHFHGHQWLVKLJKO\DFFHVVLEOH 7KLV VHHPV WR HFKR WKH UHSHDWHG QRXQ SHQDOW\ VHH *RUGRQ *URV] *LOOLRP*RUGRQ6FHDUFH$WWKHVDPHWLPH,KDYHDUJXHG$ULHOFKDS WKDW LQWHQGHG GLYHUJHQFHV IURP DSSURSULDWH DFFHVVLELOLW\ PDUNLQJ DUHSRVVLEOHEXWOLPLWHGWR FDVHVZKHUHVSHFLILFFRQYHUVDWLRQDOLPSOLFDWXUHVDUHVRXJKW

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

$OPRULVPDLQO\LQWHUHVWHGLQSURFHVVLQJHIIRUW+HZDQWVWRFDOFXODWHWKH HDVH RISURFHVVLQJ DQDSKRUVDV DQLQWHUDFWLRQ RI WKUHHIDFWRUVGLVFRXUVH IRFXVLH GHJUHH RI DFFHVVLELOLW\ WKH DPRXQW RI QHZ LQIRUPDWLRQ FRQWULEXWHG E\ WKHDQDSKRU DQG WKH LQIRUPDWLRQ ORDG GLIIHUHQWLDO EHWZHHQ WKH DQWHFHGHQW DQG WKHDQDSKRU ,QIRUPDWLRQDO ORDG LV QRW HTXLYDOHQW WR P\ ,QIRUPDWLYLW\ FULWHULRQ ,W LVFDOFXODWHG DV WKHFRQFHSWXDO GLVWDQFHEHWZHHQWKH DQDSKRU DQGWKH DQWHFHGHQW,QRUGHU WR DVVHVV WKLV GLIIHUHQFH $OPRU GUDZV GLVWLQFWLRQV DPRQJ DQWHFHGHQWV DQGDQDSKRUVQRWSUHYLRXVO\PDGHE\DFFHVVLELOLW\WKHRU\VXFKDVEHWZHHQPRUHJHQHUDODQG OHVV LQIRUPDWLYH WHUPV HJ WKH ELUG D FUHDWXUH DQG PRUH VSHFLILF DQGLQIRUPDWLYH RQHV HJ WKH URELQ DQ RVWULFKEHWZHHQ PRUH YHUVXV OHVV W\SLFDOLQVWDQFHV RI D FDWHJRU\ HJ URELQ YV RVWULFK +LV H[SHULPHQWV VKRZ GLIIHUHQWUHVSRQVH WLPHV WR GLIIHUHQW SDLUV RI DQWHFHGHQWDQDSKRU DFFRUGLQJ WR WKHVH

GLVWLQFWLRQV VRPH RI WKHP HYHQ VRPHZKDW FRXQWHULQWXLWLYH HJ WKDW WKH VDPHDQDSKRULF H[SUHVVLRQ HJ WKHELUGZLOOEH SURFHVVHG IDVWHU ZKHQ DQDSKRULF WR DQDQWHFHGHQWZKLFKLVDOHVVW\SLFDOPHPEHULQLWVFDWHJRU\HJDQRVWULFKWKDQZKHQLW LV W\SLFDO HJ D URELQ ZKHQ ERWK DUH IRFXVHG $OPRU WKXV DGGV DQRWKHUGLPHQVLRQ WR WKH DQWHFHGHQWDQDSKRU UHODWLRQ WKDW , GLG QRW GLVFXVV WKDW RIFRQFHSWXDOGLIIHUHQFH

)LQDOO\(SVWHLQEH[WHQGVWKHFRQFHSWRIORZDFFHVVLELOLW\WRLQGXGH[YLLLWKHDFFHVVLELOLW\RIQHZGLVFRXUVHHQWLWLHVDVZHOO+LVFODLPLVWKDWORZDFFHVVLELOLW\FKDUDFWHUL]HVWKHDSSURSULDWHXVHRIGHILQLWHGHVFULSWLRQVUHIHUULQJWRHQWLWLHVZKLFKODFNDSUHYLRXVO\VWRUHGPHQWDOUHSUHVHQWDWLRQVRWKDWWKHDGGUHVVHHLVLQVWUXFWHGWRFRQVWUXFW D QHZ UHSUHVHQWDWLRQ WKH GHILQLWH DUWLFOH PDUNLQJ WKDW WKH NQRZOHGJHUHTXLUHGIRUWKHFRQVWUXFWLRQ LVDFFHVVLEOH6XFKDFFHVVLELOLW\IRU QRQ*LYHQHQWLWLHV

FDQGHULYHIURPWKHKLJKSURPLQHQFHRIWKHHQWLW\IURPWKHIDFWWKDWLWLVDIUDPHDSSURSULDWH LQIHUUHG UROH RU IURP WKH DFFHVVLELOLW\ LW KDV IRU D QRQFDQRQLFDO

QDUUDWRU

$FFHVVLELOLW\SUHGLFWLRQVSHUWDLQLQJWRWKHW\SHRIDQWHFHGHQW

[YLLL

3iJGHORULJLQDO


16/49

5HFDOOWKDWDFFHVVLELOLW\WKHRU\SUHGLFWVWKDWWKHKLJKHUWKHDFFHVVLELOLW\ZLWKZKLFKWKHPHQWDOUHSUHVHQWDWLRQLVHQWHUWDLQHGWKHKLJKHUWKHDFFHVVLELOLW\PDUNHUXVHGWRUHWULHYH LW DQG YLFH YHUVD IRU ORZ DFFHVVLELOLW\ , SUHVHQW EHORZ UHFHQW ILQGLQJVFRUURERUDWLQJ WKLV FODLP *HUQVEDFKHU SURSRVHV WKH VWUXFWXUH EXLOGLQJIUDPHZRUN DFFRUGLQJ WR ZKLFK ZKHQ FRPSUHKHQGHUV DUH HQJDJHG LQ FRQVWUXFWLQJPHQWDOUHSUHVHQWDWLRQVIRULQFRPLQJLQIRUPDWLRQWKHLUVWUDWHJ\LVWREXLOGFRKHUHQW

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

ZD\LQZKLFKGLVFRXUVHHQWLWLHVDUHLQWURGXFHGHJE\DQLQGHILQLWHDUWLFOHYHUVXVE\DQLQGHILQLWHWKLVLQ(QJOLVKJLYHULVHWRGLIIHUHQWH[SHFWDWLRQVUHIXUWKHUPHQWLRQVVHHDOVR*LYyQDERXWWKHLQWHUDFWLRQRIJUDPPDWLFDOUROHZLWKPDUNLQJE\DQLQGHILQLWHWKLV0XHOOHU/XVW DQG *LEEV RQ SURSHU QDPHV DQG 6DQIRUG HWDODQG3DWHUVRQHWDODERXWTXDQWLILHG13VDVDQWHFHGHQWV

7UDQVODWHG LQWR DFFHVVLELOLW\ WHUPLQRORJ\ FDWDSKRULFDOO\ PDUNHG GLVFRXUVHHQWLWLHVEHFRPHUHODWLYHO\PRUHVDOLHQWDQWHFHGHQWVEHFDXVHWKH\RFFXS\DSULYLOHJHGSRVLWLRQ DPRQJ PHQWDO UHSUHVHQWDWLRQV 7KH\ VKRXOG WKHUHIRUHEH[L[ UHIHUUHG WR E\

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

[L[

3iJGHORULJLQDO


17/49

SURQRXQV,QGHHG*RUGRQHWDODQG*RUGRQDQG&KDQIRXQGWKDWWKHUHSHDWHGQDPHSHQDOW\ XVLQJWRRORZDQDFFHVVLELOLW\PDUNHUDSSOLHVWRVXEMHFWVEXWQRWWRRWKHUV\QWDFWLFVWDWXVHV6WHEELQVVKRZVKRZVRPHODQJXDJHVXVHQXPEHUPDUNLQJFDWDSKRULFDOO\P\WHUPRQO\RUSUHIHUHQWLDOO\IRUHVWDEOLVKLQJQHZGLVFRXUVH HQWLWLHV OLQNLQJ WKLV XVDJH WR WKH KLJK ,QIRUPDWLYLW\ LQYROYHG LQ QRXQVPDUNHGIRUQXPEHU6XFKODQJXDJHVPD\RPLWQXPEHUPDUNLQJLQVXEVHTXHQWPHQ

WLRQV7KHVDPHJRHVIRUQRXQFODVVLILHUVDQGQRXQSDUWLFOHVVHHP\LQWHUSUHWDWLRQRI+LQGVILQGLQJVUH-DSDQHVHLQ$ULHOS

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

WRWKH GHWHUPLQDWLRQ RI GHJUHH RIDFFHVVLELOLW\DQG WKH VDPH FRXOGEHFODLPHGIRUVXEMHFW SRVLWLRQ SURYHG FUXFLDO E\ +DOPDUL , WHQG WR WKLQN WKH RWKHU ZD\URXQG QDPHO\ WKDW LW LV GHJUHH RI GLVFRXUVH SURPLQHQFH ZKLFK LQIOXHQFHV ERWKV\QWDFWLFUROHDQGGHJUHHRIDFFHVVLELOLW\VHHDOVR*XQGHOHWDO,QRWKHUZRUGVPRUH LPSRUWDQW HQWLWLHV ZLOO EH LQWURGXFHG DV UHIHUHQWLDO UDWKHU WKDQ DVQRQUHIHUHQWLDODVVXEMHFWVUDWKHUWKDQDVQRQVXEMHFWV

2DNKLOO HW DO VKRZ KRZ GHSHQGLQJ RQ WKH DQWHFHGHQW FRQFHSWXDODQDSKRUVHJ,QHHGDSODWH:KHUHGR\RXNHHS WKHP"DUHDSSURSULDWHWKRXJKDWVRPH SURFHVVLQJ FRVW ,Q JHQHUDO WKH\ VKRZ WKDW GHSHQGLQJ RQ WKH GHJUHH RI WKHDFFHVVLELOLW\ RI WKH DQWHFHGHQW GLIIHUHQW UHIHUULQJ H[SUHVVLRQV DUH DSSURSULDWH*DUURGDQG6DQIRUGDQG$OEUHFKWDQG&OLIWRQILQGWKDWDQHQWLW\FRGHGDVDQ13FRQMXQFWFRQVWLWXWHVDQLQIHULRUDQWHFHGHQWOHVVDFFHVVLEOHVRUHIHUHQFHVWR

LWWDNHORQJHUWRSURFHVV$OPRUGHPRQVWUDWHVWKHUROHWKDWIRFXVSOD\VLQUDLVLQJWKHGHJUHHRI

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

ILQGV WKDW WKH JOREDO WRSLF KDV D VWURQJHU HIIHFW WKDQ IRFXV RU ORFDO WRSLF 7KLV LVLPSRUWDQWLQWKDWLWVKRZVWKDWZHFDQQRWVXEVWLWXWHWKHFRPSOH[FRQFHSWRIGHJUHHRIDFFHVVLELOLW\ZLWKVLPSOHUXOHVVXFKDVLIDQDSKRULFZLWKDVXEMHFWRUZLWKDIRFXVVHG13RULIDVHQWHQFHWRSLFWKHQWKHPHQWDOUHSUHVHQWDWLRQLQWHQGHGLVWREHFRGHGE\DKLJKDFFHVVLELOLW\PDUNHUVHHDOVR$UQROGWRDSSHDU[[L

[[3iJGHORULJLQDO

[[L3iJGHORULJLQDO


18/49

$FFHVVLELOLW\SUHGLFWLRQVSHUWDLQLQJWRWKHW\SHRIDQDSKRU$FFHVVLELOLW\ WKHRU\ SUHGLFWV WKDW DFFHVVLELOLW\ PDUNHUV ZKLFK DUH UHODWLYHO\XQLQIRUPDWLYH QRQULJLG DQG DWWHQXDWHG UHWULHYH KLJKO\ DFFHVVLEOH PHQWDO UHSUHVHQWDWLRQVWKHRSSRVLWHKROGVIRUORZDFFHVVLELOLW\PDUNHUV7KHUHVHDUFKHUVKHUH

PHQWLRQHGVXSSRUWWKLVFODLPE\SRLQWLQJ WRWKHFRUUHVSRQGHQFHEHWZHHQGHJUHHRIDQWHFHGHQWDFFHVVLELOLW\DQGWKHLQIRUPDWLYLW\ULJLGLW\RUDWWHQXDWLRQRIWKHDQDSKRU)RZOHU/HY\DQG%URZQQRWHWKDWWKHVDPHFRQGLWLRQVZKLFKHQFRXUDJHWKHXVDJHRI SURQRXQVKLJKDFFHVVLELOLW\PDUNHUVDOVRHQFRXUDJHWKHVKRUWHQLQJRIWKHSURQXQFLDWLRQ RI SURSHU QDPHV WKHUHE\ PDNLQJ WKHP VLJQDO D KLJKHU GHJUHH RIDFFHVVLELOLW\%UHQQDQIRXQGWKDWVXEMHFWVOHQJWKHQHGWKHLUSURQXQFLDWLRQRISURQRXQVWKHUHE\WXUQLQJWKHPLQWRVOLJKWO\ORZHUDFFHVVLELOLW\PDUNHUVZKHQWKHDQWHFHGHQWV ZHUH QRQVXEMHFWV D ORZHU GHJUHH RI DFFHVVLELOLW\ 'RZQLQJ DUJXHV WKDW -DSDQHVH FODVVLILHUV DUH XVHG DV DQDSKRULF H[SUHVVLRQV WKH GHJUHH RIDFFHVVLELOLW\P\WHUPLQRORJ\WKH\PDUNEHLQJLQEHWZHHQSURQRXQVDQGOH[LFDO13V%HFDXVH RI WKHLU KLJK LQIRUPDWLYLW\ FODVVLILHUV FDQ UHIHU WR UHODWLYHO\ GLVWDQWDQWHFHGHQWVDQGLQFRQWH[WVZKHUHWKHUHDUHLQWHUYHQLQJDQWHFHGHQWV%RWKFRQWH[WV

DUHLQGLFDWLRQVRIDQLQWHUPHGLDWHGHJUHHRIDFFHVVLELOLW\ *DUQKDPHWDO5LQFNDQG%RZHUDQG&DFFLDULHWDOSUHVHQWHYLGHQFHIRUWKHLPSRUWDQFH RI JHQGHU PDUNLQJ HYHQ LI LW LV DUELWUDU\ JHQGHU P\ LQIRUPDWLYLW\

FULWHULRQ0LWKXQVKRZVKRZSURVRGLFFXHVDIIHFWWKHGHJUHHRIDFFHVVLELOLW\FRGHG E\ WKH VDPH DFFHVVLELOLW\ PDUNHU D GHILQLWH 13 6KH GLVWLQJXLVKHV EHWZHHQOH[LFDO 13V ZKLFKRFFXULQVHSDUDWH LQWRQDWLRQ XQLWV WKRVHWKDW GRQRW DQG WKRVHWKDWRFFXULQWKHPRUH*LYHQV\QWDFWLFSRVLWLRQSRVWYHUEDOO\LQ&HQWUDO3RPRZLWKD

VSHFLILFLQWRQDWLRQ%DNHUSUHVHQWVGDWDVKRZLQJWKDWGLVFRXUVHSURPLQHQFHDQG FRQWUDVW GHWHUPLQH WKH DSSURSULDWHXVDJH RI (QJOLVK IUHH UHIOH[LYH IRUPV LHXQERXQGUHIOH[LYHV$OWKRXJKKHGRHVQRWQRWHWKLVDVXSHUILFLDOFRXQWRIWKHGDWDKH TXRWHV UHYHDOV D GLIIHUHQFH EHWZHHQ EDUH UHIOH[LYHV UHODWLYHO\ DWWHQXDWHG DQG

UHIOH[LYHV FRPELQLQJ ZLWK SURQRXQV DQG OH[LFDO 13V OHVV DWWHQXDWHG H[SUHVVLRQV7KHIRUPHUPDUNDKLJKHUGHJUHHRIDFFHVVLELOLW\WKDQWKHODWWHU 7KXVODQJXDJHVFDQXWLOL]HYHU\PDQ\DGGLWLRQDOIRUPDOPDUNLQJVWKDQ,KDYHRULJLQDOO\OLVWHGVHH$ULHO SS RQ WKH XQLYHUVDOLW\ RI WKH DFFHVVLELOLW\ PDUNLQJ VFDOH2EYLDWLRQ ORJRSKRULF IRUPV DQG VZLWFK UHIHUHQFH V\VWHPV FRPH WR PLQG RQ WKHODWWHUVHH$ULHO

0XONHUQSQRWHVKRZIXOOQDPHVIXQFWLRQGLIIHUHQWO\IURPSDUWLDOQDPHV DQG VHH $ULHO SS 7KH ODWWHU PDUN D KLJKHU GHJUHH[[LL RIDFFHVVLELOLW\ EHFDXVH WKH\ DUH OHVV LQIRUPDWLYH /LFKWHQEHUNV GDWD FDQ EHDGGXFHGLQVXSSRUWRIP\FODLPWKDWSUR[LPDWHDQGGLVWDOGHPRQVWUDWLYHVVKRZDQDFFHVVLELOLW\GLVWLQFWLRQDQGQRWMXVWDGHLFWLFGLVWLQFWLRQ:KHQWUDFNLQJGLVFRXUVHHQWLWLHVWKHGLVWDOGHPRQVWUDWLYH13UHWULHYHGHQWLWLHVPHQWLRQHGPRUHWKDQWZLFH

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

[[LL

3iJGHORULJLQDO


19/49

PHWDSKRUVGR QRWVORZWKHPGRZQZKHQWKH\GRQRWVHUYHDV UHIHUULQJH[SUHVVLRQV%HXQ DQG &UHPHUV ILQG WKDW VSHDNHUV XVH UHGXQGDQW LQIRUPDWLRQ PDNLQJWKHLU H[SUHVVLRQV FRGHD ORZHU GHJUHH RI DFFHVVLELOLW\ ZKHQ UHIHUULQJWR SK\VLFDOO\DYDLODEOHREMHFWVHVSHFLDOO\ZKHQWKHREMHFWVDUHRXWRIIRFXVRIDORZHUGHJUHHRIDFFHVVLELOLW\

0HKXGDU DQDO\]HV WKH GLIIHUHQFHV EHWZHHQ SUR[LPDWH DQG REYLDWLYH

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

HQWLW\ ZDVPRUHDXWRPDWLFDOO\DFFHVVLEOH =LYVKRZVKRZZKHQ WKHLQIHUUHGHQWLW\LVVWHUHRW\SLFDOO\DFFHVVLEOHLHKLJKO\DFFHVVLEOHHYHQSURQRXQVFDQEHXVHGIRULQLWLDOUHWULHYDOV0DHVDQG1RRUGPDQILQGWKDW'XWFKGHILQLWH13VUHIHUWRPRUHUHPRWHDQWHFHGHQWVWKDQGHPRQVWUDWLYH13VLQLWLDOUHWULHYDOVIRUWKHPRVWSDUW

6HFWLRQ KDV GHVFULEHG UHFHQW UHVHDUFK ZKLFK VXSSRUWV WKH PDLQ WHQHWV RIDFFHVVLELOLW\WKHRU\QDPHO\WKDWUHIHUHQWLDOFKRLFHLVPDGHE\DVVHVVLQJWKHGHJUHHRI

[[LLL

3iJGHORULJLQDO


20/49

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

PLQLPL]HWKHFRQWULEXWLRQRIDFFHVVLELOLW\WKHRU\WRSUHGLFWLQJUHIHUHQWLDOIRUPXVDJH$OWHUQDWLYHO\RQHFRXOGPD[LPL]HWKHUROHRIDFFHVVLELOLW\WKHRU\E\DUJXLQJWKDWWKHDFFHVVLELOLW\SULQFLSOHVDFWXDOO\UHSODFHIRUPDOUXOHV7KXVZKLOH,PDGHQRDWWHPSWWRUHSODFHWKH&FRPPDQGGRPDLQE\DFRJQLWLYHFRQFHSWDOWKRXJK,YLHZLWDVWKHJUDPPDWLFL]DWLRQ RI D KLJKO\ DFFHVVLEOH FRQWH[W YDQ +RHN XVHVDFFHVVLELOLW\WKHRU\WRUHGXFH&FRPPDQGWRDGLVFRXUVHFRQFHSWZKLFKLVVHQVLWLYHWRWKHSURPLQHQFH RI WKHDQWHFHGHQW DQGWKHGHJUHH RI XQLW\ EHWZHHQWKHDQWHFHGHQWDQGWKHDQDSKRU6KHWKXVUHIRUPXODWHV5HLQKDUWV &FRPPDQGUHVWULFWLRQVDJDLQVWIXOO 13V EHLQJLQ WKH &FRPPDQG GRPDLQ RISURQRXQVFRLQGH[HGZLWK WKHP DVDQDFFHVVLELOLW\ PDUNLQJ YLRODWLRQ ZKHUH D ORZ DFFHVVLELOLW\ PDUNHU LV XVHG LQ D KLJKDFFHVVLELOLW\ FRQWH[W ,W UHPDLQV WR EH VHHQ ZKHWKHU YDQ +RHNV DFFHVVLELOLW\UHVWULFWLRQVFDQDFWXDOO\UHSODFHWKHJUDPPDWLFDOSULQFLSOH)RUH[DPSOHIRUWKHPRVW

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

, P\VHOI KDYH RSWHG IRU D QRQPLQLPDO QRQPD[LPDO SRVLWLRQ $ULHO ,Q JHQHUDO, KDYHDUJXHG WKDWWKHOLQJXLVWLFH[WUDOLQJXLVWLF GLYLVLRQRI ODERUGRHVQRWQHDWO\GLYLGHXWWHUDQFHLQWHUSUHWDWLRQDFFRUGLQJWRWKH WRSLFVLGHQWLILHGE\OLQJXLVWV VHH $ULHO F 0V 6XFK D GLYLVLRQ ZRXOG SRVLW WKDW DOO DVSHFWV RI

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

[[LY

3iJGHORULJLQDO


21/49

WKHRU\ DUH FRJQLWLYHO\ ZHOO[[Y PRWLYDWHG IRU WKH PRVW SDUW E\ WKH FULWHULD RILQIRUPDWLYLW\ ULJLGLW\ DQG DWWHQXDWLRQ PHQWLRQHG DERYH VRPH DVSHFWV RI WKHDFFHVVLELOLW\VFDOHZKLFKH[SUHVVLRQVFRGHZKLFKGHJUHHRIDFFHVVLELOLW\QHHGWREHJUDPPDWLFDOO\ VWLSXODWHG QRQHWKHOHVV VHH $ULHO SS 5HIHUHQFHLQWHUSUHWDWLRQ WKHQ LV PRGXODUL]HG EHWZHHQ D OLQJXLVWLF IRUPDO UXOHV DQGDFFHVVLELOLW\GHJUHHOH[LFDOO\VSHFLILHGDQGDQH[WUDOLQJXLVWLFLQIHUHQWLDOFRPSHWHQFH

VHHDOVR)DUPHUDQG+DUQLVK7KLV PXFK LV SHUKDSV REYLRXV :KDW LV OHVV REYLRXV LV WKDW WKH OLQJXLVWLF

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

H[WUHPHO\KLJKO\DFFHVVLEOH3UHFLVHO\VXFKYDULDELOLW\EHWZHHQODQJXDJHVLVH[SHFWHGLIZHDVVXPHWKDWFRJQLWLYHSULQFLSOHVDSSO\LQDOOODQJXDJHEXWWKH\JUDPPDWLFL]HRQO\LQVRPHRIWKHFDVHVVHHDOVR&RPULH

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

ODQJXDJH RQO\ GUDZV D FHUWDLQ QXPEHU RI DFFHVVLELOLW\ GLVWLQFWLRQV WKH FKRLFH RIDFWXDOIRUPVWRKDYHRUQRWWRKDYHDGHILQLWHDUWLFOHIRUH[DPSOHDQGWKHSUHFLVHDFFHVVLELOLW\ GRPDLQ FDUYHG IRU HDFK UHIHUULQJ H[SUHVVLRQ HJ ZKDW WR FRXQW DVH[WUHPHO\ KLJK DFFHVVLELOLW\ OLFHQVLQJ D ]HUR LQ &KLQHVH DQG LQ (QJOLVK PD\ YDU\0DQ\ODQJXDJHVDOORZRUGLFWDWH]HURIRUVHFRQGSHUVRQUHIHUHQFHVLQLPSHUDWLYHVLH ZKHUH WKH HQWLW\ UHIHUUHG WR LV KLJKO\ DFFHVVLEOH DV ZHOO DV LQ FRQWURO YHUE

[[Y

3iJGHORULJLQDO[[YL

3iJGHORULJLQDO


22/49

FRQWH[WVZKHUHGHSHQGLQJRQWKHW\SHRIYHUEDKLJKFRKHVLRQEHWZHHQWKHFODXVHVFUHDWHVD KLJKGHJUHHRI DFFHVVLELOLW\IRUWKHPDWUL[DQWHFHGHQWVDVLQ,GLGQWZDQWWR VHH KLP RU /LNH KH ZDQWHG PH WR ORRN DW KLP -XU\ %XW WKHVH DUHJUDPPDWLFL]HGFRQYHQWLRQVUDWKHUWKDQGLUHFWO\PRWLYDWHG WHQGHQFLHVLQWKDWWKH\GRQRWDEVROXWHO\KDYHWRRFFXULQHDFKODQJXDJH*UHHNDQG6DNDSXOWHNR0D\DIRULQVWDQFHGRQRWKDYH]HURVXEMHFWVLQFRQWUROFRQWH[WVDQGWKHODWWHUGRHVQRWIRUFHD

]HUR LQ LPSHUDWLYHV 'X %RLV SHUVRQDO FRPPXQLFDWLRQ ,QGHHG DFFHVVLELOLW\PDUNHUVHYHQVKRZGLDOHFWDOYDULDELOLW\VHH*DUFLDDQG&DPHURQRQWKHYDULDELOLW\RI6SDQLVKUHIHUHQWLDOIRUPV

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

IRUWKHVSHFLILFPDUNHU

7KHJUDPPDWLFL]DWLRQRIDFFHVVLELOLW\PDUNHUV*UDPPDWLFL]DWLRQ RIWHQ HQWDLOV D WUDQVLWLRQ IURP D SUDJPDWLF H[WUDOLQJXLVWLFWHQGHQF\ WR D JUDPPDWLFDO RIWHQ REOLJDWRU\ UXOH ,Q $ULHO D , KDYH

[[YLL

3iJGHORULJLQDO


23/49

RXWOLQHG VXFK D KLVWRULFDO SDWK RI FKDQJH OHDGLQJ IURP IUHH SURQRXQV WR YHUEDOSHUVRQ DJUHHPHQW LQIOHFWLRQV PRUH DWWHQXDWHG WKDQ SURQRXQV KHQFH PDUNLQJ DKLJKHU GHJUHH RI DFFHVVLELOLW\ DUJXLQJ WKDW VXFK D FKDQJH RFFXUV IRU WKH IRUPVUHIHUULQJWRKLJKO\DFFHVVLEOHGLVFRXUVHHQWLWLHV6LQFHVSHDNHUVWHQGWRVKRUWHQWKHIRUPVUHIHUULQJWRKLJKO\DFFHVVLEOHHQWLWLHVWKHFULWHULRQRIDWWHQXDWLRQDQGVLQFHWKH VSHDNHU DQG WKH DGGUHVVHH EXW QRW UG SHUVRQV DUH FRQVLVWHQWO\ KLJKO\

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

UHIHUULQJH[SUHVVLRQ,QIDFWWKHVDPHSURFHVVFDQEHVHHQLQWKHFXUUHQWH[DPSOH )UDQNO\,PWRUQP\RZQVHOIDVWRZKLFKZD\WRUDLVHKHOO&ODUN5HHGDV

TXRWHGLQ7KH,QWHUQDWLRQDO+HUDOG7ULEXQH-DQ,Q RWKHU FDVHV DFFHVVLELOLW\ WKHRU\ FDQ PRWLYDWH JUDPPDWLFDO HYHQ REOLJDWRU\FRQVWUDLQWVRQWKHGLVWULEXWLRQRIYDULRXVUHIHUULQJH[SUHVVLRQV,KDYHPHQWLRQHGLQWKLVFRQQHFWLRQWKHELQGLQJFRQGLWLRQV$ULHOVHH.HHQDQ/HYLQVRQ ,Q $ULHO , DUJXH WKDW ZKHUHDV WKH GLVWULEXWLRQ RI ]HURHV DQGUHVXPSWLYHSURQRXQVLQUHODWLYHFODXVHVVHHPVTXLWHGLYHUVHDPRQJWKHODQJXDJHVRIWKH ZRUOG HJ VRPH ODQJXDJHV PDNH ]HURHV REOLJDWRU\ ZLWK VXEMHFW UHODWLYL]HGSRVLWLRQV VRPH DOORZ RU HQFRXUDJH UHVXPSWLYH SURQRXQV RQO\ ZLWK QRQUHVWULFWLYH

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

,W LV LPSRUWDQW WR QRWH WKDW ZKLOH JUDPPDWLFL]DWLRQV DUH RIWHQ PHUHO\ WKHIUHH]LQJ RIVSHFLILFUHDOL]DWLRQVRI DFFHVVLELOLW\GLVWLQFWLRQVLQWR REOLJDWRU\OLQJXLVWLFUXOHVHJIRUJDSVDQGUHVXPSWLYHSURQRXQVLQUHODWLYHFODXVHVRQFHVRPHUXOHLVSDUWRIWKHODQJXDJHLWPD\LQWHUDFWZLWKRWKHUOLQJXLVWLFIDFWVDQGJHQHUDOL]DWLRQVRI

SDWWHUQVPD\WKHQHYHQREOLWHUDWHWKHRULJLQDOO\SUDJPDWLFDOO\PRWLYDWHGGLVWULEXWLRQVHH &RPULH D7KLVLV KRZ, LQWHUSUHW .HHQDQV H[SODQDWLRQ IRUZK\ (QJOLVK ORVW LWV KLJK LQYROYHPHQW SURQRXQV DV LQ WKH NLQJ ZDONHG KLP WR/RQGRQ,Q2OG(QJOLVKWKHUHZHUHWZRFRQWH[WVZKHUHDQDSKRUVZHUHORFDOO\ERXQGWR WKHLU VXEMHFWV QRQDUJXPHQWV RI WKH KLJK LQYROYHPHQW W\SH DQG FRQWUDVWLYHFRDUJXPHQWVRIWKHYHUE$V,KDYHPHQWLRQHGEHIRUHWKHODWWHUDUHOHVVDFFHVVLEOHWKDQWKHIRUPHUHYHQWKRXJKERWKSLFNWKHVXEMHFWDVDQWHFHGHQW$VLWXDWLRQZKHUH

[[YLLL

3iJGHORULJLQDO


24/49

ORFDOO\[[L[ ERXQGSURQRXQV DUH XVHG IRU KLJK LQYROYHPHQW VXEMHFWV DQG UHIOH[LYHSURQRXQVDUHXVHGIRUORFDOO\ERXQGFRQWUDVWLYHDUJXPHQWVLVTXLWHFRPSDWLEOHZLWKDFFHVVLELOLW\ WKHRU\ VHH DERYH +RZHYHU RQFH ORFDO ELQGLQJ EHFRPHV DFKDUDFWHUL]LQJIHDWXUHRIGLVWULEXWLRQLWLVKDUGHUOHVVJHQHUDOWRKDYHWZRW\SHVRIUHIHUULQJ H[SUHVVLRQV LQ WKH VDPH E\ QRZ JUDPPDWLFDOO\ GHILQHG FRQWH[W ORFDOELQGLQJZLWKWKHVXEMHFW3HUKDSVWKLVLVZK\(QJOLVKGURSSHGWKHH[FHSWLRQDOXVH

RIKLJKLQYROYHPHQWSURQRXQV+HEUHZGLGQRW7KHVDPHH[SODQDWLRQDSSOLHVWRWKHOHVV HYHQ VSUHDG RI UHIOH[LYH IRUPV WR REMHFWV RI SUHSRVLWLRQ DV LQ \RX PDNLQJSRVLWLYHFKRLFHVIRU\RXUVHOILQ\RXUOLIH'HDWKYHUVXVWKDWVKLVZD\RIGUDZLQJ\RXUDWWHQWLRQWRKLP -XU\ VHH %RXFKDUG )DOW]=ULEL+HUW] )RUREMHFWVRISUHSRVLWLRQVHVSHFLDOO\XQJRYHUQHGRQHVFRUHIHUHQFHLVQRWVRXQOLNHO\DVIRU DFFXVDWLYHV+HQFHD SURQRXQFRXOGKDYHEHHQDFFHSWDEOHLQGHHGLWZDVLQ2OG(QJOLVKDQGVWLOOLVLQVRPHFDVHVDVLQ'R\RXKDYHDQ\VKDUSREMHFWVRQ

\RX"5LVN&IZLWKWKH\EURXJKWLWXSRQWKHPVHOYHV&XWLHSLH1RWHDOVRWKDWZKHUHDVJHQLWLYHVDUHSURQRPLQDOLQPDQ\ODQJXDJHVWKH\DUHUHIOH[LYHLQVRPHHJ6ZHGLVKDQG7XUNLVK$FFHVVLELOLW\H[SHFWDWLRQVDOORZWKHPWREHSURQRXQVGXHWRWKHKLJK DFFHVVLELOLW\RI WKHLU UHIHUHQWV EXWD IRUPDOO\ GHILQHGJHQHUDOL]DWLRQ PD\IRUFHDUHIOH[LYHLQWKLVFRQWH[W

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

[[L[

3iJGHORULJLQDO[[[

3iJGHORULJLQDO


25/49


26/49

LPSRUWDQW SRLQWV DOO WKHRULHV RIIHU VRPH YHUVLRQ RI D VFDOH RQ ZKLFK UHIHUULQJH[SUHVVLRQV DUH DUUDQJHG DOO DJUHH WKDW DGGLWLRQDO SUDJPDWLF IDFWRUV FDQ RYHUULGHWKH SULQFLSOHV WKH\ SURSRVH &UXFLDOO\ WKH WKHRULHV FRQYHUJH RQ WKH SUHGLFWLRQV UH

JURVVGLVWLQFWLRQVEHWZHHQ]HURHVSURQRXQVDQGOH[LFDO13VLQGHHGQRFRXQWHUH[DPSOHVWRDFFHVVLELOLW\WKHRU\KDYHEHHQVKRZQWREHEHWWHUDFFRXQWHGIRUE\WKHVHWKHRULHV 6WLOO WKHUH DUH FRQFHSWXDO DV ZHOO DV HPSLULFDO GLIIHUHQFHV EHWZHHQ WKHVH

WKHRULHVDQG,ZLOOKHUHEULHIO\PHQWLRQZK\,WKLQNWKDWDFFHVVLELOLW\WKHRU\SURYLGHVDEHWWHUDFFRXQWIRUUHIHUHQWLDOIRUPXVHDQGLQWHUSUHWDWLRQ

&KDIHZDVWKHILUVWWRDUJXHIRUDGLUHFWFRQQHFWLRQEHWZHHQUHIHUHQWLDOIRUPVDQGFRJQLWLYHVWDWXVHV,QIDFWDFFHVVLELOLW\WKHRU\FDQEHVHHQDVDQH[WHQVLRQ RI KLV DQG ODWHU *LYy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

/HYLQVRQVEDVLFLQWXLWLRQLVWKDWFRUHIHUHQFHLVSUHIHUUHGRYHUQRQFRUHIHUHQFHDQG WKDW PLQLPDO IRUPV HJ ]HUR SURQRXQ VKRXOG EH XVHG XQOHVV IXOOHU IRUPVHJOH[LFDO13VDUHVSHFLILFDOO\UHTXLUHGLHLIWKHJUDPPDUGRHVQRWDOORZWKHXVHRIDPLQLPDOIRUP,IKRZHYHUDIXOOHUIRUPLVIRXQGZKHUHDPRUHPLQLPDOIRUPLVOLFHQVHGE\ WKHJUDPPDUWKHDGGUHVVHH GUDZVDQ LPSOLFDWXUHWKDWWKHVSHDNHUGLG127 LQWHQG D FRUHIHUHQFH UHDGLQJ VHH RULJLQDOO\ 5HLQKDUW , KDYH DUJXHGDJDLQVW/HYLQVRQVWKHRU\DWOHQJWKVHH$ULHODQGVHHDOVR

[[[LL

3iJGHORULJLQDO


27/49

%ODFNZHOO,KDYHSUHVHQWHGPDQ\FRXQWHUH[DPSOHVWRKLVSUHGLFWLRQVPRVWRIZKLFKVWHPIURPKLVLQVLVWHQFHRQWKHJUDPPDULDQVFRUHIHUHQFHGLVMRLQWUHIHUHQFHGLVWLQFWLRQ 7KXV[[[LLL /HYLQVRQ FDQ LQGHHG PRWLYDWH ZK\ FHUWDLQ DQDSKRULFH[SUHVVLRQV DUH GLVMRLQW LQ UHIHUHQFH IURP FHUWDLQ DQWHFHGHQWV ZKHQ D ORZDFFHVVLELOLW\ PDUNHU LV XVHG LQVWHDG RI D KLJK DFFHVVLELOLW\ PDUNHU %XW KHFDQQRWH[SODLQ ZK\ WKH VDPH ORZ DFFHVVLELOLW\ PDUNHUV PXVW EH LQWHUSUHWHG DV FRUHIHUHQW

ZLWK RWKHU DQWHFHGHQWV ZKLFK DUH XQGLVWLQJXLVKDEOH IURP WKH LOOHJLWLPDWHDQWHFHGHQWVRQKLVDFFRXQW,ZLOOKHUHPHQWLRQRQHH[DPSOH +LVDQGWKH]HURUHIHUWRWKHVH[XDODEXVHUZKRLVWKHGLVFRXUVHWRSLF 5(%(&&$ SXWWKHQHZVSDSHULRQKLVODS 5,&.,( HDK@ 5(%(&&$ >PDV@WXUEDWHG DQGWKHQOLIWHGWKHSDSHUL>XS@ 5,&.,( >


28/49

8QIRUWXQDWHO\ WKH OLVWRI VWDWXVHV VSHFLILHGORRNV VXVSLFLRXVO\ FRPSDWLEOH ZLWK WKHGLVWULEXWLRQRIMXVWWKRVHUHIHUULQJH[SUHVVLRQVOLQJXLVWVKDYHWHQGHGWRIRFXVRQLHVRPH EXW QRW HYHQ DOO WKH UHIHUHQWLDO IRUPV LQ (QJOLVK ]HUR 1RZ , DJUHH WKDWOLQJXLVWVPXVWDEVROXWHO\VHWWKHLUJRDODWH[SOLFDWLQJOLQJXLVWLFIRUPVEXWWKHUHVXOWLQWKLVFDVHLVWKDWWKH FRJQLWLYHDVSHFWRIWKHH[SODQDWLRQLV VHYHUHO\FRPSURPLVHG7KHFRJQLWLYHEDVLVRIUHIHUHQWLDOIRUPVLVGUDVWLFDOO\UHGXFHGLIFRJQLWLYHVWDWXVHVDUH

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

WKDWRIXQLTXHO\LGHQWLILDEOH ,QDGGLWLRQLWLVQRWFOHDUKRZWKHILUVWGLVMXQFWRIXQLTXHO\ LGHQWLILDEOH DQG RI UHIHUHQWLDO GLIIHUV IURP WKH VWDWXV RI IDPLOLDU LH

7KHDGGUHVVHHLVDEOHWRXQLTXHO\LGHQWLI\WKHLQWHQGHGUHIHUHQWEHFDXVHKHDOUHDG\KDVDUHSUHVHQWDWLRQRILWLQPHPRU\S

0RUHRYHU LW LV QRW RQO\ WKDW FRJQLWLYH VWDWXVHV DUH GLVMXQFWLYH VR LV WKHUHODWLRQVKLS EHWZHHQ UHIHUULQJ H[SUHVVLRQV DQG FRJQLWLYH VWDWXVHV 7KDW WKLV ,7VWUHVVHG DQG WKLV 1 DUH DOO VDLG WR PDUN RQH DQG WKH VDPH DFWLYDWHG VWDWXV LQ(QJOLVK -DSDQHVH KDV H[SUHVVLRQV IRU WKLV FRJQLWLYH FDWHJRU\ 5XVVLDQ DQG6SDQLVKKDYHWZRH[SUHVVLRQVIRUWKHIDPLOLDUVWDWXV7KHVHVKRZDPDQ\IRUPVRQHIXQFWLRQUHODWLRQVKLS0XONHUQXVLQJ*XQGHOHWDOVWKHRU\ILQGVWKDWSDUWLDOSURSHUQDPHVDUHHLWKHUIDPLOLDURUDFWLYDWHGZKHUHDVIXOOQDPHVDUHHLWKHUXQLTXHO\ LGHQWLILDEOH RU IDPLOLDU 7KHVH VKRZ D[[[Y RQH IRUPPDQ\ IXQFWLRQVUHODWLRQVKLS,QRWKHUZRUGVWKHUHLVQR RQHWRRQHFRUUHVSRQGHQFHEHWZHHQ IRUPVDQGFRJQLWLYHVWDWXVLQDQ\GLUHFWLRQ$QRWKHUSUREOHPZLWK*XQGHOHWDOV*LYHQQHVVKLHUDUFK\ LV UDLVHG E\ =LY SURQRXQV LQ IRFXV DUH SUHGLFWHG WR DOZD\VEHXQLTXHO\LGHQWLILDEOHDFFRUGLQJWRWKH*LYHQQHVVKLHUDUFK\EHFDXVHWKHKLHUDUFK\LVLPSOLFDWLRQDO EXW WKH\ DUH GHILQLWHO\ QRW DOZD\V VR ,Q =LYV H[DPSOHV WKH\ DUHXQLGHQWLILHG LQIHUUHG UROH SOD\HUV 7KLV VHULRXVO\ XQGHUPLQHV WKH SRWHQWLDOH[SODQDWRU\VXSHULRULW\RIWKH*LYHQQHVVSURSRVDO$OVRZKLOHWKHUHLVSV\FKRORJLFDOHYLGHQFH IRU WKH VFDODU UHODWLRQVKLS EHWZHHQ LQ IRFXV DQG DFWLYDWHG VHH WKHUHIHUHQFHV DERYH WKHUH LV QR SV\FKRORJLFDO HYLGHQFH IRU WKH VFDODU GLVWLQFWLRQVEHWZHHQWKHRWKHUIRXUFDWHJRULHVRQWKHVFDOH

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

[[[Y

3iJGHORULJLQDO


29/49

SURSHUQDPHV"%HWZHHQORQJHUDQGVKRUWHUGHILQLWHGHVFULSWLRQVDQGQDPHVZKHUHOHQJWKGRHVQRWDIIHFWWKHGHJUHHRILQIRUPDWLYLW\&I WKHQHZVSDSHUZLWKWKHSDSHUDERYH" , GRXEW WKDW *XQGHO HWDO FDQ RIIHU DV PDQ\ FRKHUHQWO\ GHILQHG FRJQLWLYHVWDWXVHV DV WKHUH DUHGLVWLQJXLVKDEOH UHIHUULQJH[SUHVVLRQ W\SHV 7KHRQO\ZD\WKH\DV ZHOO DV/HYLQVRQ &KDIHDQG &HQWHULQJ WKHRULVWV VHH EHORZ FDQ KDQGOH VXFKGLIIHUHQW GLVWULEXWLRQV LV E\ LQFRUSRUDWLQJ DGGLWLRQDO H[SODQDWLRQV $FFHVVLELOLW\

WKHRU\ KDQGOHV PRVW RI WKHVH GLVWULEXWLRQDO SDWWHUQV E\ RQH DQG WKH VDPHJHQHUDOL]DWLRQ DOWKRXJK LW GRHV QRW FRPSOHWHO\ UHSODFH LGHQWLILDELOLW\ DQGFRQWUDVWLYHQHVV

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

DOVRHPSKDVL]HWKDWWKHVDOLHQFHRIDGLVFRXUVHHQWLW\LVGHWHUPLQHGE\DFRPELQDWLRQRI V\QWDFWLF VHPDQWLFDQGSUDJPDWLFIDFWRUV $OOWKLV LV RI FRXUVH TXLWH FRPSDWLEOHZLWKDFFHVVLELOLW\WKHRU\

+RZHYHU &HQWHULQJ WKHRU\ FDQQRW EH WDNHQ DV D WKHRU\ DERXW UHIHUULQJH[SUHVVLRQVLQJHQHUDO,WVSURSRQHQWVFDQQRWHYHQEHVDLGWRFKDUDFWHUL]HWKHXVDJHRISURQRXQVUHDOO\ZKLFKWKH\SXUSRUWWR7KHLUIRUPXODWLRQRIWKHSURQRXQUXOHRUWKH ]HUR UXOH IRU ODQJXDJHV OLNH -DSDQHVH LV WKDW LI VRPH HQWLW\ LV UHDOL]HG DV DSURQRXQWKHQ VRPXVWEHWKHKLJKHVWUDQNLQJHQWLW\ 7KLV LVIRU WKH PRVWSDUWWKHGLVFRXUVHWRSLFDQGKHQFHLWZLOOLQGHHGEHFRGHGE\DWOHDVWDVKLJKDQDFFHVVLELOLW\

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

[[[YL

3iJGHORULJLQDO


30/49

UDQNLQJ D VWURQJHU UHTXLUHPHQW WKDQ WKH &HQWHULQJ RQH )XUWKHU UHVHDUFK LVUHTXLUHG7KHIROORZLQJH[DPSOHVKRZVWKDW&HQWHULQJWKHRULVWVIRFXVWRRPXFKRQORFDOFRQQHFWLRQV:KLOHLQPRVWFDVHVWKHGLVFRXUVHWRSLFLVDOVRWKHVHQWHQFHVXEMHFWRIWKHVHQWHQFHLQWKLVFDVHLWLVQRW7KXVGHVSLWHWKHIDFWWKDWWKHKLJKHURIILFHULVPHQWLRQHGDVDVXEMHFWLQWZR[[[YLLFRQVHFXWLYHFODXVHVQRWWRPHQWLRQWKHKDLULWLVVWLOOWKHGLVFRXUVHWRSLFRIILFHU)HOOZKLFKLVSURQRPLQDODQGQRWWKHKLJKHURIILFHU

LQERWKLQVWDQFHV

,WLVQRWDVLIKHLORRNVOLNHDKLSSLHUHDOO\RUDQ\WKLQJOLNHWKDW)HLOVLJUH\EURZQKDLUFRYHUVKLVLFROODUIURPEHKLQG%XWRQHGD\LQWKHRIILFHUMLQFKDUJHRIKLPLGHPDQGHGIURPKLPLWRKDYHDKDLUFXW7KHRIILFHUMDFFXVHGKLPL+DDUHW]O

,Q VXP DOO WKH WKHRULHV GLVFXVVHG LQ 6HFWLRQ FRUUHFWO\ SUHGLFW VRPH RI WKHGLVWULEXWLRQDOSDWWHUQVRI UHIHUULQJH[SUHVVLRQVEXWQRQH, EHOLHYHFDQDFFRXQWIRUWKHIXOOUDQJHRIGDWDDVZHOODVDFFHVVLELOLW\WKHRU\

'LUHFWLRQVIRUIXUWKHUUHVHDUFK:KLOH DQDSKRUD KDV EHHQ H[WHQVLYHO\ UHVHDUFKHG E\ ERWK OLQJXLVWV DQG SV\FKROLQJXLVWVPDQ\TXHVWLRQVDUHVWLOOXQUHVROYHG,OLVWEHORZDVHULHVRIRSHQTXHVWLRQVSHUWDLQLQJ WR UHIHUHQWLDO IRUPVDQG OLQJXLVWLF DQG SV\FKROLQJXLVWLF UHVHDUFK, KDYHGLYLGHGWKHPLQWROLQJXLVWLFDQGSV\FKROLQJXLVWLFTXHVWLRQV

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

ORZHU[[[YLLL

DFFHVVLELOLW\PDUNHUV)XUWKHUUHVHDUFKLVQHHGHG3RWHQWLDOFRPSOLFDWLRQVIRU DFFHVVLELOLW\WKHRU\ DUH LQWURGXFHG E\ $UQROG WRDSSHDU$UQROGILUVWHVWDEOLVKHVWKDW0DSXGXQJXQVXEMHFWVFRGHWKHPRVWDFFHVVLEOHHQWLW\ RI WKH FODXVH 7KLV VKRXOG PHDQ WKDW ZKHQ WKH VXEMHFW LV UHIHUUHG WR LQ DVXEVHTXHQW FODXVH WKH DQDSKRULF H[SUHVVLRQ XVHG VKRXOG EH D KLJK DFFHVVLELOLW\PDUNHU7KLVLVJHQHUDOO\WUXHEXW$UQROGVKRZVWKDWWKHUHLVDQDGGLWLRQDOIDFWRUDW

[[[YLL

3iJGHORULJLQDO[[[YLLL

3iJGHORULJLQDO


31/49

ZRUN SDUDOOHOLVP 7KH SUREDELOLW\ IRU DQ DQDSKRULF REMHFW WR EH QRQRYHUW D KLJKDFFHVVLELOLW\PDUNHULVKLJKHUZKHQWKHDQWHFHGHQWLVDQREMHFWLHUHSUHVHQWLQJDQHQWLW\RIDUHODWLYHO\ORZHUGHJUHHRIDFFHVVLELOLW\WKDQZKHQLWLVDVXEMHFWFRGLQJWKH PRVW KLJKO\ DFFHVVLEOH HQWLW\ RI WKH SUHYLRXV FODXVH $UQROG DWWULEXWHV WKLVSKHQRPHQRQ WR WKH HIIHFW RI SDUDOOHOLVP 5RVHQ GLVFXVVHV D VLPLODUSKHQRPHQRQ =HUR VXEMHFWV DUH LQWHUSUHWHG QRW QHFHVVDULO\ RQ WKH EDVLV RI WKH

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

'HJUHH RI DFFHVVLELOLW\ LV D IHDWXUH WKDW FKDUDFWHUL]HV *LYHQ LQIRUPDWLRQ ,WVKRXOG WKHQ EH IUXLWIXO WR UHH[DPLQH DOO WKRVH IRUPV DUJXHG WR FRGH *LYHQLQIRUPDWLRQHJSUHVXSSRVLWLRQVHUJDWLYHQRPLQDOVDQGVHHZKHWKHULWLVJHQHUDO

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

GLVWLQFWLRQEHWZHHQWKHP7KHVDPHDSSOLHVSHUKDSVWRWKHSUDJPDWLFSULQFLSOH'X%RLV SURSRVHV DV XQGHUO\LQJ KLV SUHIHUUHG DUJXPHQW VWUXFWXUH QDPHO\ $YRLGPRUHWKDQRQHQHZDUJXPHQWSHUFODXVHS,WVKRXOGSHUKDSVEHUHSODFHGE\$YRLGPRUHWKDQRQH[[[L[DUJXPHQWRIDORZGHJUHHRIDFFHVVLELOLW\$VVXPLQJWKDW

WKLVLVWUXHLWUHPDLQVWREHVHHQZKDWFRXQWVDVDWRRORZDGHJUHHRIDFFHVVLELOLW\*HUQVEDFKHU GHPRQVWUDWHV KRZ GLIIHUHQW UHIHUULQJ H[SUHVVLRQV HQ

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

FXUUHQWGHJUHHRIDFFHVVLELOLW\VD\ORZEXWDWWKHVDPHWLPHWKH\FRQWULEXWHDWOHDVW SDUWO\ WR WKH RSSRVLWH GHJUHH RIIXWXUHDFFHVVLELOLW\ KLJK 7KLV FDQ H[SODLQZK\VSHDNHUVVKLIWWRORZHUDFFHVVLELOLW\PDUNHUVIURPWLPHWRWLPHHYHQZKHQWKH\FRQWLQXHWRGLVFXVVWKHVDPHGLVFRXUVHHQWLW\

7KHVH VKLIWV FRPELQHG ZLWK UHVXOWV REWDLQHG E\ 6DQIRUG DQG *DUURG DQG$OPRU SRLQW WRFRQIOLFWLQJPRWLYDWLRQVLQ UHIHUHQWLDOH[SUHVVLRQ FKRLFH/LYHIRUWRGD\YHUVXV/LYHIRUWRPRUURZ6DQIRUGDQG*DUURGVUHVXOWVVKRZWKDW

[[[L[

3iJGHORULJLQDO


32/49

XVLQJWRR ORZ DQDFFHVVLELOLW\PDUNHU HJ D GHILQLWH 13ZKHQ WKH DQWHFHGHQW LVDUHSHDWHGGLVFRXUVHWRSLF VORZVVXEMHFWVGRZQ *HUQVEDFKHUVUHVXOWVRQ WKHRWKHUKDQGVKRZWKDWORZHUDFFHVVLELOLW\PDUNHUVERRVWIXWXUHGHJUHHRIDFFHVVLELOLW\,QRWKHUZRUGVLQVRPHFDVHVWKHVSHDNHUKDVWRFKRRVHZKHWKHUVKHZLVKHVWRDWWHQGWRKHUDGGUHVVHHV QHHGV E\ FKRRVLQJKHUDFFHVVLELOLW\ PDUNHU LQ DFFRUGDQFH ZLWK WKHFXUUHQWGHJUHHRIDFFHVVLELOLW\HJKLJKRUE\HQVXULQJWKHIXWXUHWKDWWKHHQWLW\

DWKDQGUHPDLQVUHJDLQVDKLJKGHJUHHRIDFFHVVLELOLW\E\FKRRVLQJDQDFFHVVLELOLW\PDUNHU ZKLFK LV UHODWLYHO\ WRR ORZ 6XFK FRPSHWLQJ PRWLYDWLRQV DUH UDPSDQW LQQDWXUDO ODQJXDJHVHH 'X%RLV DQG IXUWKHU UHVHDUFKLV FDOOHG IRU LQ RUGHUWRILQGRXWZKHQLWLVWKDWVSHDNHUVRSWIRUUHIOHFWLQJFXUUHQWGHJUHHRIDFFHVVLELOLW\DQGZKHQWKH\RSWIRUHVWDEOLVKLQJRUPDLQWDLQLQJDKLJKGHJUHHRIDFFHVVLELOLW\IRUIXWXUHUHIHUHQFHV

$QLQWHUHVWLQJRSHQTXHVWLRQWKDWQHHGVUHVHDUFKLQJLQWRLVWKHTXHVWLRQRIWKHFRUUHODWLRQ EHWZHHQ UHIHUHQWLDOLW\ DQG GHJUHH RI DFFHVVLELOLW\ ,W VHHPV WKDW VRPHIRUPVDUHQRWRQO\YHU\KLJKDFFHVVLELOLW\PDUNHUVHJ]HURHVWKH\DUHDOVRPRUHFRPSDWLEOH ZLWK QRQUHIHUHQWLDO UHDGLQJV VHH &DPHURQ 'RURQ *DUFLD 6HOOV +RZHYHUDV DQWHFHGHQWVQRQUHIHUHQWLDO HQWLWLHV HJ ZKRHYHUJHQHULF 13V LPSHUVRQDO \RX DUH RQ WKH ZKROHOHVV DFFHVVLEOHDQG KHQFH VKRXOG

KDYHSURPSWHGUHODWLYHO\ORZHUDFFHVVLELOLW\DQDSKRULF[OH[SUHVVLRQV,KDYHDUJXHGDJDLQVW D UHIHUHQWLDOQRQUHIHUHQWLDO PDUNLQJ GLFKRWRP\ VKRZLQJ WKDW HYHQQRQUHIHUHQWLDODUJXPHQWVLQUHODWLYHFODXVHVDUHQRWUHVWULFWHGWRJDSVDQGPD\WDNHUHVXPSWLYH SURQRXQV $ULHO SS %XW WKH IDFW UHPDLQV WKDW WKHSUHIHUHQFHIRUJDSVLVVWURQJHUZKHQUHODWLYHFODXVHKHDGVDUHQRQUHIHUHQWLDOGHVSLWHWKHUHODWLYHORZDFFHVVLELOLW\RIQRQUHIHUHQWLDODQWHFHGHQWV3HUKDSVWKLVLVUHODWHGWRWKHIXWXUHDFFHVVLELOLW\PDUNLQJRI13V1RQUHIHUHQWLDOVDUHW\SLFDOO\QRQFDWDSKRULF

KHQFHWKHDYRLGDQFHRIORZDFFHVVLELOLW\PDUNHUV*UDPPDWLFL]DWLRQ UDLVHV LQWHUHVWLQJ TXHVWLRQV WRR QRW OLPLWHG WR UHIHUULQJ

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

9,296,accesibility theory

Documents