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Our Investment Strategy: Inves1ng With Convic1on To Outperform in Times of Vola1lity and Uncertainty “Extractors Vs Compounders in the Asian Capital Jungle” For personal use only

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Page 1: 8L Investments

Our  Investment  Strategy:  Inves1ng  With  Convic1on  To  Outperform  in  Times  of  Vola1lity  and  Uncertainty    “Extractors  Vs  Compounders    in  the  Asian  Capital  Jungle”  

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Our  Investment  Team  F

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Protect  the  Downside:  Extrac1ng  the  “Extractors”  with  our  Systema1c  and  Disciplined  Investment  Process  

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Capturing  the  Upside  with  the  Hidden  Champions  in  our  Daily  Life    Presenta>on  at  8I  Networking  Nite  at  MND  in  March  2014    

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“Paris  BagueIe”:  Up  16-­‐Fold  (2004-­‐March  2014)  to  Market  Value  US$525  Million  

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The  Compounding  Power  of  Focused  Entrepreneurs  “Paris  BagueLe”  Up  Another  480%  Since  March  2014  to  US$2.08  Billion  

   Operates  over  6,000  food  service  outlets  in  Korea  and  globally     The  average  daily  sales  of  a  Paris  BagueLe  outlet  is  around  W1.9-­‐2m  

($1,800),   at   least   double   that   of   rival;   Singapore   stores   generate  W12-­‐13m  ($11,000-­‐12,000)  in  daily  sales      Largest   industrial   baked   goods   sold   through   convenience   stores,  

supermarkets,  grocery  stores  with  dominant  71%  domes>c  market  share     Elas>c  distribu>on  that  uses  hub  systems  (24  DCs)  to  ensure  freshness      The   temperature   and   humidity   at   which   dough   was   thawed   is   the  

company’s  secret      Bankrupt   under   leadership   of   brother   during   Asian   Financial   Crisis;  

Huh,   second  son  of   the   founder,  acquired   the  company   in  2002  out  of  court  receivership  

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Two-­‐Step  Process  to  PorWolio  Construc1on  

OUT:  Poten1al  Accoun1ng  Fraud  

OUT:  Corpo

rate  

Misgovernanc

e  

Indestruc1ble  Intangibles  

ü   Proprietary  know-­‐how  ü   Trust  and  support  from  community  of  customers,  suppliers,  partners  

Core-­‐Periphery  Network   Open  Innova1on  

ü   Both  internal  and  ezeternal  partners  co-­‐develop  new  products  and  services  

ü   Scaling  by  empowerment  and  decision-­‐rights  beyond  the  founder  ü   Scaling  by  technology  as  an  enabler  and  embedded  into  the  business  model  design    

Inves1ng  Universe  >25,000+  Listed  Stocks  in  Asia  

Eliminate  “Extractors”  

“Wide-­‐Moat  Compounders”  

&  Hidden  Champions  

Wide-­‐Moat  Business  

Model  Analysis  

Dissec1ng  Corporate  Culture    

Step  1:  Elimina1ng  “Extractors”  to  protect  downside  risk  

Step  2:  Elimina1ng  value  traps  and  narrow-­‐moat  companies  

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Stock-­‐Picking  is  a  Dangerous  Game  A  minority  of  stocks  are  responsible  for  the  majority  of  the  market’s  gains  

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Disposi1on  Effect  to  Sell  Winners  Too  Early  and  Ride  Losers  for  Too  Long  –  Overcoming  with  Knowledge  and  Convic1on  

    Reflexive   choice   under   uncertainty   and   reflects   an  aversion  to  loss  realiza>on.        In   our   view,   investors   ride   losers   far   too   long   to  

postpone  regret,  hoping  for  a  rebound  in  prices,  and  sell  winners   too   quickly   because   they   want   to   hasten   the  feeling  of  pride  at  having  chosen  correctly  in  the  past.     Market   vola>lity   and   chaos,  mania   and   panic   -­‐   they  

would  be  our  friend  if  we  have  the  willpower  quo>ent  to  overcome  this  harmful  disposi>on  effect.        This  willpower  comes   from  anchoring  ourselves  with  

knowledge   i n   i den>fy ing   and   i nves>ng   i n  misunders tood ,   neg lec ted ,   over looked   and  underappreciated   wide-­‐moat   companies   and   sizing   up  the   porholio   bets   with   convic>on   when   the  management   con>nues   to   deliver   in   their   long-­‐term  business  plans.        Such   convic>on   requires   intensive   analysis   and  

monitoring  of  companies  and  entrepreneurs.    

Peter   Lynch:   “Some   people  automa4cally   sell   the   “winners”—stocks   that   go   up—and   hold   on   to  their  “losers”—stocks  that  go  down—which   is   about   as   sensible   as  pull ing   out   the   flowers   and  watering  the  weeds.”  

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BuffeI:  Sizing  Up  High-­‐Convic1on  Bets  

“Charlie   and   I   decided   long   ago   that   in   an   investment   life4me,   it’s   too   hard   to  make   hundreds   of   smart   decisions.  We   adopted   a  strategy   that   required   our   being   smart   only   a   very   few  4mes..   If   you   are   a   know-­‐something   investor,   able   to   understand   business  economics  and  to  find  five  to  ten  sensibly-­‐priced  companies  that  possess  important  long-­‐term  compe44ve  advantages,  conven4onal  diversifica4on  makes  no  sense  for  you.  It  is  apt  simply  to  hurt  your  results  and  increase  your  risk.  I  cannot  understand  why  an  investor  of  that  sort  elects  to  put  money  into  a  business  that  is  his  20th  favorite  rather  than  simply  adding  that  money  to  his  top  choices  –  the  businesses  he  understands  best  and  that  present  the  least  risk,  along  with  the  greatest  profit  poten4al.   In  the  words  of  the  prophet  Mae  West:  Too  much  of  a  good  thing  can  be  wonderful.”  -­‐  Warren  BuffeL  in  Berkshire  Hathaway’s  Annual  LeLer  to  Shareholders  in  1993    F

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BuffeI:  42%  of  Fund’s  Asset  in  Amex  in  1964  Amex  Has  Since  Compounded  Over  3,000%  

"Charlie  and   I  operated  mostly  with  5  posi4ons.   If   I  were  running  50,  100,  200  million,   I   would   have   80%   in   5   posi4ons,   with   25%   for   the   largest.   In   1964   I  found  a  posi4on  I  was  willing  to  go  heavier  into,  up  to  40%.  I  told  investors  they  could  pull   their  money  out.  None  did.  The  posi4on  was  American  Express  a[er  the  Salad  Oil  Scandal.  In  1951  I  put  the  bulk  of  my  net  worth  into  GEICO.  There  were  various  4mes  I  would  have  gone  up  to  75%,  even  in  the  past  few  years.  If  it's  your  game  and  you  really  know  your  business,  you  can  load  up."      -­‐  Warren  BuffeL,  February  25,  2008  

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Wide-­‐Moat  Business  Model  Dynamics:  Lanchester  Strategy  Adopted  by  Toyota,  Denso,  Fast  Retailing  (Uniqlo),  SMC  Corp,  Canon  etc  

Market  share  benchmarks     Dominance  (73.9%):  Unassailable  posi>on      Stable   target   (41.7%):   Top   share   can   be  

maintained  at  this  level      Minimum   target   (26.1%):   Minimum   share  

necessary   for   a   strong   player   to   becoming   the  dominant  player      High-­‐level   target   (19.3%):   This   level   normally  

ranks   a   company   within   the   top   three,   and  should  be  the  ini>al  target  for  a  “weak  player”      Influence   target   (10.9%):   Level   at   which   a  

player   begins   to   influence   the   market;  compe>>on  begins  to  intensify  above  the  level     Presence  target  (6.8%):  Level  at  which  a  player  

has  a  presence  in  the  market     Base  target  (2.8%):  Entry  posi>on  

    Bri>sh   aeronau>cal   engineer   F.W.   Lanchester  (1868-­‐1946)   made   important   contribu>ons   to  automo>ve   engineering,   aerodynamics   and   co-­‐invented   the   topic   of   opera>ons   research.   He   is  considered   one   of   the   "big   three"   English   car  engineers,   the   others   being   Harry   Ricardo   and  Henry  Royce.         Lanchester  researched  aLri>on  in  land,  sea  and  

air  combat.  Based  on  these  studies,  he  developed  the   Lanchester   Laws   and   the   importance   of   the  scale  of  the  figh>ng  force  in  warfare.    

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Applica1on  of  Lanchester  Strategy:  Canon  Vs  Xerox     Overwhelming  rival  in  Rank  Xerox  

    Took  a  foothold  in  the  market  by  first  

concentra>ng  its  resources  in  Scotland       Achieved  a  40%  market  share  

    ALacked  selected  and  >ghtly  defined  

regions  in  England        Invested  more  and  more   in  product  

development  and  sales  resource          Final  push   into   the   lucra>ve  London  

market        Superior   product   and   a   numerically  

superior   sales   force.  Rank  Xerox  didn’t  stand  a  chance  

Nikkei  

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Applica1on  of  Lanchester  Strategy:  SMC  Corp  (MV  $17.7Bn)  60%  market  share  in  Japan,  33%  global  market  share,  39%  in  China  

   Global  leader  in  pneuma>c  machines  with  a  33%  market  share  (60%  market  share  in  Japan,  39%  in  China)      SMC’s   high   profitability   and  market   share   is   due   to   its   ability   to   rapidly   supply   customers  with   630,000  

dis>nc>ve  products  combining  parts  from  11,000  basic  shapes.  SMC  can  quickly  supply  products  on  the  day  they  are  ordered,  even  overseas,  and  that  60-­‐70%  of  products  can  be  delivered  within  three  days.       Over  two-­‐thirds  of  all  products  are  manufactured  at  its  Tsukuba  plant.  Essen>ally,  SMC  engages  in  flexible,  

mul>ple,  small-­‐lot  produc>on  centered  on  cell  units.  It  constructed  its  own  dis>nc>ve  produc>on  lines  which  automa>cally  receive  detailed  orders  from  marke>ng  staff  via  computer.  

SMC   is   founded   in   1959   as  Sintered  Metal  Company  by  S u s um u   Om u r a   a n d  Yoshiyuki  Takada  (photo)  

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Our  Investments    

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8IH  Interim  Report  as  at  Sep  2015  

Source:  8IH  Interim  Report  on  ASX  hLp://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20151102/pdf/432nk9r3hhw4nf.pdf    

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Major  Cineplex  (SET:  MAJOR):  #1  Lifestyle  Entertainment  Company  in  Thailand  

1.  What  makes  it  a  wide-­‐moat  business?    –  Consolidated   the  cinema  market  with  dominant  80%  market   share,  

aLrac>ng  30  million  Thai  consumers  to  its  “des>na>on  to  be”  –  Adver>sing   services   business   segment   is   crown   jewel   asset   with  

underappreciated  network  effect  •  Increase  bargaining  power  as   it  gets  bigger;  adver>sers  will  pay  even  more  

for  the  consumer  reach  •  Addi>onal   revenue   generated   on   exis>ng   assets   with   high   gross   profit  

margin  of  86-­‐88%  with  minimal  capex  investments  

2.  Why  it  has  the  poten>al  to  double  in  3-­‐5  years?    –  Expanding  into  the  provinces  and  regionally  (Cambodia  and  Laos)  

•  To  double  up  its  capacity  within  5  years  

3.  Management/Corporate  Culture  –  Visionary,  leading  and  shaping  the  Thai  movie  industry  –  Poolvaraluck  family  with  ~34.5%  ownership  F

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Financial  Summary  2012 2013 2014 TTM

Gross,Profit,Margin 32.3% 35.0% 36.5% 35.3%EBIT,Margin 13.6% 15.8% 16.1% 13.5%ROE 10.6% 13.6% 15.4% 18.6%Gross,Profit/Total,Assets 19.8% 19.8% 22.6% 22.6%

Cash,Conversion,Cycle 12 15 10 11EBIT/CAPEX,(x) 2.5 2.1 2.4 0.7Net,Debt,%,of,NTA 45.5% 80.7% 69.6% 71.0%

EV/EBIT,(x) 17.3 13.4 19.2 31.1EV/EBITDA,(x) 11.7 9.3 12.7 14.3

Sales 23.8% EBIT 28.4% EBITDA 31.1%

2012 2013 2014Sales 6,965,,,,,,,, 8,623,,,,,,,,EBIT 1,168,,,,,,,, 1,500,,,,,,,,

Profitability

Operating,Efficiency

Valuation

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Price  Chart  Performance    F

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Hartalega  (KLS:  HARTA)  1.  What  makes  it  a  wide-­‐moat  business?    

–  World’s   largest-­‐scale   nitrile   gloves   manufacturer,   highly   innova>ve,  fastest  speed,  high  quality  •  Launched   the   world’s   thinnest   4.7g   nitrile   glove   in   2005   and   subsequently   an   even  

thinner  3.7g  nitrile  glove  in  2007  •  Before  Hartalega,  nitrile  gloves  were  chiefly  used  in  industrial  applica>ons  and  not  in  the  

medical  sector  due  to  their  heavy  weight  and  thickness  •  Invested  in  automated  mechanical  stripping  system  that  mimics  the  human  hand  mo>on  

of  stripping  gloves  off  and  industrial  bar  code  tech  system  to  scale  up  to  45,000  gloves  an  hour  at  a  lower  cost  

–  Global  16-­‐20%  market  share  2.  Why  it  has  the  poten>al  to  double  in  3-­‐5  years?    

–  Reinves>ng  profits  into  widening  the  moat  with  disciplined  capex  growth  plans  in  NGC:  NGC  Plant  1  and  2  up  &  running  

3.  Management/Corporate  Culture  –  Innova>ve   management   who   created   crea>ng   a   pull-­‐based   market   in  

which  the  nitrile  gloves  can  be  used  by  healthcare  professionals  –  Kuan  family  55%  ownership  F

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Financial  Summary  2013 2014 2015 TTM

Gross-Profit-Margin 33.6% 33.2% 29.8% 29.2%EBIT-Margin 39.9% 32.5% 22.3% 22.6%ROE 33.7% 27.3% 19.0% 17.9%Gross-Profit/Total-Assets 36.9% 33.1% 23.1% 21.8%

Cash-Conversion-Cycle 62 68 94 81EBIT/CAPEX-(x) 1.6 1.6 0.7 0.7Net-Cash-%-of-NTA 22.2% 17.8% 5.1% 1.0%

EV/EBIT-(x) 11.5 16.7 33.6 30.6EV/EBITDA-(x) 10.4 14.6 28.9 25.7

Sales 11.0% EBIT Q9.2% EBITDA Q4.2%

Profitability

Operating-Efficiency

Valuation

3-Year-GrowthFor

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Price  Chart  Performance    F

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Target  Weight  in  Types  of  Business  Model  and  By  Country  

Source:  8IH  Interim  Report  hLp://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20151102/pdf/432nk9r3hhw4nf.pdf    

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Investment  Process    

Search  •  Idea  sources:  Internal  research,  

Industry  network  of  entrepreneurs  

•  Determine  companies  that  qualify  

•  Understand/  evaluate  the  long-­‐term  “story”  of  the  company,  its  business  model  and  economics  

•  Visit  and  read  management  to  ascertain  quality  

Valua1on  •  Provide  independent  base  

conserva>ve  valua>on  •  Assess  >pping  point  in  business  

model  valua>on  

PorWolio  Management  •  Monitor  the  core  stocks  

(news/events,  interims,  annuals)  

•  Add  stock  posi>on  into  the  porholio  i.e.  has  story  changed  for  the  beLer.  Build  up  stock  posi>ons  progressively  as  the  company  hit  business  milestones  

•  Reduce  or  Remove  stock  posi>on  from  the  porholio  i.e.  has  story  changed  for  the  worse  

•  Build  value  with  exis>ng  stocks  eg  advisory  on  business  model  analysis,  corporate  governance  issues  and  financing  solu>ons  to  help  company  grow  further  

Search:  Finding  the  Hidden  

Champions  

Valua1on:    Pivot  of  Value  Between  Search  and  Porholio  

Management  

PorWolio  Mgmt:  Buy  Enough  and  Hold  Long  Enough  

It  is  the  hole  in  the  middle  which  makes  the  wheel  useful  –  Lao-­‐Tzu  

Investment  “Technology”  +  Teamwork  

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We  Are  Cognizant  of  the  Macroeconomic  Risks  Ahead  

   Uncertainty  surrounding  the  US  Fed  rate  hike  decision  and  its  avermath  on  asset  pricing  and  asset  risk  

   Sharp  devalua>on  of  EM/  Asian  currencies  X  Highly-­‐geared  Asian   companies   loaded   on   dollar-­‐based   loans   =   Recipe   for  disaster  for  wave  of  corporate  default  and  profit  warnings.  

   Fragility  of  China’s  financial  sector.    

    Demise   of   petrodollar   flows   into   equi>es   and   the   capital  markets.    

   Commodi>es  bust  and  its  impact  on  the  financial  sector.  

    Internet   sector   correc>on,   death   of   unicorns   and   the  cooling   of   VC   investment   environment   has   taken   its   toll   on  startups.  

    Harvard   University   endowment   fund   warns   of   market  “froth”   in   Sep   2015   and   is   looking   to   allocate   funds   into  investment  managers  with  exper>se  as  short-­‐sellers.  

EBIT-­‐debt  coverage:  A  quarter  of  Chinese  firms  with  debt  unable  to  cover  their  annual  interest  expense  currently  

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    Aeon   Bhd:   Best   shopping   mall   in   Malaysia,   wide-­‐moat   business   but  narrowing  moat?     FY2013  and  1Q14  results:  Resilient  retailing  segmental  profits  s>ll  ok  

We  Are  Vigilant  of  the  Corporate  Developments  and  Management  Execu1on  of  Our  PorWolio  Stocks:  The  Case  of  Aeon  Bhd  

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We  Are  Vigilant  of  the  Corporate  Developments  and  Management  Execu1on  of  Our  PorWolio  Stocks:  The  Case  of  Aeon  Bhd  

   1H14  results  announced  on  28  Aug  2014:  Retailing  segmental  profits  showed  significant  deteriora>on      Share   price   performance   aver   PEAD   (post   earnings   announcement   driv)   =  

Down  30%  vs  Bursa  index  down  10%     Lesson:  Importance  of  vigilant  monitoring  and  the  power  of  PEAD  F

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Staying  Vigilant  for  Tipping  Point  in  Business  Model  to  Lower  Valua1on  Risk  

   New  products  or  services,  and  new  markets  and  customers  -­‐  Textual   analysis   of   the   companies   with   relevant   keywords   using   linguis>c   databases   e.g.   “new  

product(s)”,  “new  development”,  “patents”,  “research  and  development”,  “innova>on”,  etc.    -­‐  Monitor  the  ra>o  of  the  sales  contribu>on  from  new  products/services  and  markets/customers.         Robust  improvements  in  capex  execu>on  efficiency  and  cash  conversion  cycle  (CCC)  

   Significant  corporate  event  in  spin-­‐offs,  M&As,  restructuring  

   Overall  health  of  value  chain  and  ecosystem  

   Corporate  culture,  strategy,  innova>on,  partnerships:    -­‐  (1)   the   management   desire   to   cul>va>ng   a   culture   of   decentraliza>on,   trust   and   coopera>on   to  

foster   innova>ve   experimenta>ons,   including   inves>ng   in   a   system   to   cascade   decision   rights  throughout  the  organiza>on;    

-­‐  (2)  the  management  discipline  in  handling  power  and  wealth;    -­‐  (3)  the  management  focus  and  sense  of  urgency  to  build  something  with  a  Purpose  and  commit  to  an  

idea  larger  than  themselves  to  care  for  and  serve  others  with  love;    -­‐  (4)  the  management  skin  in  the  game  with  aligned  performance-­‐based  incen>ves  

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Comment  on  Concentra1on  Risk  and  Valeant:    An1dote  =  Understanding  Corporate  Culture  

    Hedge   fund   manager   Bill   Ackman   compared   “plahorm  stock”   Valeant   to   early-­‐stage   Berkshire   Hathaway   in   early  2015;  William  Thorndike,  author  of  The  Outsiders,  compared  Valeant’s   CEO   Michael   Person   to   Liberty’s   cable   billionaire  John  Malone.   Valeant’s   share     price   collapsed   in  Oct   2015,  hur>ng   many   sophis>cated   ins>tu>onal   investors   with  concentrated  porholio  bets  on  the  drug  firm.  

   We  noted  various  ar>cles  back   in  2014  that  shed   insights  about   the   corporate   culture   and   accoun>ng   of   Valeant:  Valeant  CEO  Michael  Pearson  is  known  as  an  aggressive  cost  cuLer.  Valeant’s  corporate  culture  is  that  it  does  not  want  to  spend  money  on  science  and  sees  no  wrong   in  substan>ally  jacking  up  prices  of  drugs  aver  acquiring  them.       Charlie  Munger   in  March  2015:  Companies   like   ITT  Corp.,  

made  money   back   in   the   1960s   in   an   “evil   way”   by   buying  businesses  with  low-­‐quality  earnings  then  playing  accoun>ng  games   to   push   valua>ons   higher.   “Valeant,   the  pharmaceu>cal   company,   is   ITT   come  back   to   life,”  Munger  said.  “It  wasn’t  moral  the  first  >me.  And  the  second  >me,  it’s  not  beLer.  And  people  are  enthusias>c  about  it.  I’m  holding  my   nose.”   Valeant   relied   on   “gamesmanship”   to   run   up   its  value  and  created  a  “phony  growth  record.”    

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BuffeI  on  Valua1on  F

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Tencent  (700  HK):  Always  “Expensive”  in  Valua1on?  PE  20-­‐50x;  Market  Value  Compounded  >180X  Since  2004  to  $170Bn  

20.0  

25.0  

30.0  

35.0  

40.0  

45.0  

50.0  

55.0  

60.0  

 -­‐    

 20    

 40    

 60    

 80    

 100    

 120    

 140    

 160    

 180    

2004   2005   2006   2007   2008   2009   2010   2011   2012   2013   2014  

PE  Ra1

o  

Market  V

alue

 $bn

 

Market  Value  (LHS)   PE  Ra1o  (RHS)  

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Valua1on  &  Evolu1on  Path  of  Wide-­‐Moat  Compounders  

3   7   10   15   Time  (Years)  

2.5  

2.0  

1.5  

1.0  

0.5  

Fundamental  PEG  =  (EV/EBIT)/  ROE  

Financial  market  holds  back,  as  company  grew  in  market  cap  too  fast  despite  the  strong  fundamentals  and  growth;  market  panics  and  PEG  falls    

As  company  con>nues  to  deliver,  there  is  posi>ve  re-­‐appraisal  of  the  company  and  PE  re-­‐ra>ng;  PEG  climbs  back  up  again    

PEG  remains  rela>vely  steady  as  company  “milks  the  cow”  for  cashflow  –  or  company  gets  complacent  with  size  and  falters  

Stage  I   Stage  II   Stage  III   Stage  IV  

Emerging  Leaders  Rides  the  Rising  Tide,  Niche  Poten1al  Transforms    to  

Mass  Market  

Milks  the  Cow/  Consolida1on  or  “Icarus-­‐Faltering”  

Dominance/  Legacy/  Build-­‐to-­‐Last  

Growth  slows  down,  but  PEG  climbed  due  to  “dominance”  or  “winners-­‐take-­‐most”  factor,  resul>ng  in  steady  market  cap  

0.8  

1.0  

0.6  

0.4  

0.2  

PEG  =  PE/  Net  Profits  Growth  

Small-­‐to-­‐Mid  Cap  $300M-­‐S$1B  

Mid-­‐to-­‐Large  Cap  $1-­‐20B  

PE-­‐Micro-­‐to-­‐Small  Cap  <$50M-­‐S$300M  

Large-­‐to-­‐Mega  Cap  >$20-­‐400B  

20X:  $50M  to  $1Bn     20X:  $1B  to  $20Bn     20X:  $20B  to  $400Bn    Compounding  Poten1al  

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Tencent  (HKG:  700  HK)  

 0.71    

 2.36    

 1.58    

 2.27    

 0.57    

 0.94    

 0.64      0.51    

 0.69    

 1.43    

 0.94    

 -­‐      

 0.5    

 1.0    

 1.5    

 2.0    

 2.5    

0  

10  

20  

30  

40  

50  

60  

70  

2004   2005   2006   2007   2008   2009   2010   2011   2012   2013   2014  

Fund

amen

tal  PEG

 (x)  

“PE”  (x),  “ROE”  (%

)  

EV/EBIT  ("PE")  (LHS)   EBIT  on  Equity  ("ROE")  (LHS)   Fundamental  PEG  (RHS)  

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Tencent  (HKG:  700  HK)  

34  

 -­‐      

 0.5    

 1.0    

 1.5    

 2.0    

 2.5    

 -­‐    

 20    

 40    

 60    

 80    

 100    

 120    

 140    

 160    

 180    

 200    

2004   2005   2006   2007   2008   2009   2010   2011   2012   2013   2014  

Fund

amen

tal  PEG

 (x)  

Market  C

ap  (U

SD  Billion)  

Market  Cap  (LHS)   Fundamental  PEG  (RHS)  

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Corporate  Lifecycle  &  Business  Model  %  PorWolio  Weight    

Source:  8IH  Interim  Report  hLp://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20151102/pdf/432nk9r3hhw4nf.pdf    

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Lowering  Our  Risk:  Float  Like  BuIerfly,  S1ng  Like  a  Bee  

   We  have  been  following  closely  a  number  of  entrepreneurs  building  their  enterprises  in  Asia  over  the  years,  observing  up  close   their   struggles   and   their   breakthroughs,   compiling   the  progress   of   their   corporate   lifecycle   dynamics   by   “Stage   1”,  “Stage  2”,  “Stage  3”  in  our  “Watchlist”.  

    To   lower   our   risk   that   comes   from   inves>ng   in   new   stock  ideas,   we   float   around   like   buLerflies   in   our   “Watchlist”,  obsessively  gathering  relevant  informa>on  about  the  business  model   dynamics,   value   crea>on   levers   and   cri>cal   success  factors,  management  and  corporate  governance  quality.    

   Before  we  s>ng  like  a  bee  to  jab  in  a  stock  inclusion,  to  guard  against  the  risk  of  confirma>on  bias,  we  insist  on   every   investment   team   member   to   voice   out   and  write  down  their  “Top  3  Dislikes”  about  the  company  –  and   we   make   a   cri>cal   and   calculated   evalua>on   on  whether  the  posi>ves  s>ll  overwhelm  these  “dislikes”.     “What’s  your  Top  3  Dislikes?”  F

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If  All  Else  Fails,  Apply  BuffeI’s  Folksy  “Marriage  Test”  

Buffeb:  “Tom  Murphy  and  Don  

Burke  [of  Cap  Ci4es]  are  not  only  great  managers,  but  they  are  precisely  the  sort  of  fellows  that  you  would  want  your  daughters  to  

marry.”  

A   shareholder   who   bought   in   when   Capital  Ci>es   went   public   in   the   late   1950s   would  have   made   a   2,000-­‐fold   return   at   its   exit  when  Disney  acquired  the  company.    F

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Our  Own  Folksy  “Proud  Parent”  Acid  Test  

If  not,  it’s  probably  a  value  trap…  

“Would  you  be  proud  and  happy  for  your  children  if  they  are  working  in  the  

company  you  are  going  to  invest  in?”  

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No.1  Data  Analy1cs  and  Service  Provider    

1.  What  makes  it  a  wide-­‐moat  business?    –  Data  analy>cs  and  service  provider.  Informa>on  cri>cal  for  mul>ple  

industries.  (Shipping,  Avia>on,  Land  Transport,  Key  Events,  Mass  Media,  Natural  disaster  management,  Energy,  Investments,  Agriculture,  Travel…)  

–  Market-­‐share:  ~70%  overall  domes>c  &  30  %  global  for  shipping  industry.  2.  Why  it  has  the  poten>al  to  double  in  3-­‐5  years?    

–  Innova>on  with  out-­‐of-­‐the-­‐box  thinking  that  can  cause  industry  disrup>on.  •  Create  new  compe>>ve  advantage,  opportuni>es  &  sales  for  

themselves.  •  Building  world’s  largest  social  plahorm  for  live  feedback  to  enhance  

current  data  analy>cs.  –  Venture  into  developing  markets.  

3.  Management/Corporate  Culture  –  Passion  on  value  crea>on,  service  to  humanity  and  saving  lives.  –  Hidden  champion  with  near  customer  strategy.  –  Nurtures  entrepreneurial  spirit,  dreams  and  passions  of  the  staff.  

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Financial  Summary  2013 2014 2015 TTM

40.7% 44.1% 44.2% 44.2%21.2% 24.7% 24.9% 24.4%19.8% 20.1% 18.9% 19.4%53.5% 49.4% 45.8% 49.8%

78 76 74 734.7 6.1 4.7 4.3

35.2% 55.5% 60.3% 53.7%

7.4 7.4 9.1 11.66.1 6.3 7.8 9.9

Sales 10.9% EBIT 27.3% EBITDA 22.2%

Net;Cash;%;of;NTA

EV/EBIT;(x)EV/EBITDA;(x)

Profitability

Operating;Efficiency

Valuation

3;Year;Growth

ROE

Gross;Profit;MarginEBIT;Margin

Gross;Profit/Total;Assets

Cash;Conversion;CycleEBIT/CAPEX;(x)

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Leading  FMCG  Company  with  Innova1ve  Health  and  Natural  Food  

1.  What  makes  it  a  wide-­‐moat  business?    –  >80%  domes>c  market  share  with  96%  brand  recogni>on  and  leadership.  –  Constant  urge  to  want  to  do  beLer  

•  Relentless  drive  to  be  the  lowest  cost  operator  by  taking  a  thoughhul  look  into  exis>ng  produc>on  lines  and  modifying  it  to  be  beLer  via  incorpora>ng  carefully  selected  systems  and  machines.    

•  Prides  itself  as  an  innovator  when  it  comes  to  unique  product  packaging  designs  which  create  opportuni>es  for  their  products  to  be  sold  overseas.  

•  Constant  care  and  aLen>on  given  to  its  suppliers  to  inspire  loyalty,  trust  and  confidence.    

2.  Why  it  has  the  poten>al  to  double  in  3-­‐5  years?    –  Entry  to  highly  lucra>ve  export  markets  

•  Along   with   choosing   the   right   distributors,   it   makes   conscious   decisions   in   seeking   beLer   returns   for   their   products   and   poten>ally  benefi>ng  from  future  falling  trade  barriers.  

–  Visible  roadmap  to  higher  margins  premium  products  •  Developing  its  capability  to  offer  beLer  products  and  to  deliver  material  earnings.    

–  Ability  to  increase  its  supply  over  the  >me.  3.  Management/Corporate  Culture  

–  Strong   and   highly   passionate  management  who   loves   the   business,   and   demonstrated   their  ability  to  deliver  growth  to  shareholders  despite  the  complexi>es  of  the  business.    

–  Several  members  of  the  management  are  found  in  company’s  Top  20  shareholders  list.  It  has  a  well-­‐known  cornerstone  investor  that  provides  stability  within  the  shareholders’  base.    

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2013 2014 2015 TTM

Gross-Profit-Margin 30.6% 27.8% 31.2% 31.2%EBIT-Margin 7.4% 7.3% 9.8% 9.8%ROE 9.9% 12.3% 23.3% 23.3%

40.3% 48.0% 54.9% 54.9%

Cash-Conversion-Cycle 152 110 103 103EBIT/CAPEX-(x) 4.4 3.0 3.3 3.3

60.0% 27.0% 14.0% 14.0%

EV/EBIT-(x) 7.0 9.5 9.7 17.3EV/EBITDA-(x) 5.2 7.3 8.5 15.1

Sales 67.4% EBIT 121.7% EBITDA 87.3%

2013 2015Sales 71.96 120.48EBIT 5.31 11.77

Profitability

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Valuation

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Gross-Profit/Total-Assets

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Connec1ng  People  and  Bringing  Tourism  to  the  World  1.  What  makes  it  a  wide-­‐moat  business?    

–  Largest  provider  of  na>onal-­‐wide  tourism  and  transporta>on  services  with  quasi-­‐monopoly  status  in  certain  services,  rendering  the  company  a  huge  market  share  in  the  industry.    •  The  only  operator  with  a  strong  marke>ng  and  sales  infrastructure  to  do  sales  funneling.    •  A  strong  track  record  of  reliability  among  its  customers  and  it  owns  certain  iconic  brands  that  have  undeniable  popularity  among  

tourists  and  promoted  as  one  of  the  key  experiences.  

2.  Why  it  has  the  poten>al  to  double  in  3-­‐5  years?    –  Growing  and  sustainable  appe>te  for  its  service    

•  The  weakening  of  currency  s>mulated  strong  demand   for   its   service  where  passengers  alike  would  enjoy   to  use   in  order   to  visit  certain  must-­‐see  travel  des>na>ons.  

•  A  restless  a|tude  to  improve  the  overall  u>lisa>on  of  the  vehicle  through  the  introduc>on  of  dynamic  pricing  models  and  secure  newer  routes  to  grow  the  business  further.    

•  The   relevant   exper>se   to   leverage   on   technology   to   increase   sales   with   a   target   to   generate   more   sales   from   online   sources.    Currently,  it  generates  21%  from  online  sources.    

3.  Management/Corporate  Culture  –  Clear  philosophy  on  the  company’s  family-­‐oriented  culture  and  staff  engagement.  –  Management   prac>ces   an   “owner-­‐operator”   mentality   where   commercial   decisions   are  

carefully  deliberated  and  if  necessary,  put  through  extensive  analysis  and  modeling.  –  Formed   partnerships  with   the   government   to   grow   the   tourism   sector   together;   strong,  

mature,  sensible  culture  with  mutual  respect;  a  healthy  degree  of  trust  within  the  company  is  present  and  there  is  a  constant  monitoring  of  the  business  performance  every  month.  

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Financial  Summary  2013 2014 2015 TTM

Gross-Profit-Margin 28.0% 28.6% 33.7% 33.7%EBIT-Margin 10.2% 11.2% 13.6% 13.6%ROE 23.1% 13.4% 16.1% 14.6%

39.5% 38.3% 41.5% 41.5%

Cash-Conversion-Cycle G7 G2 1 1EBIT/CAPEX-(x) 2.8 0.6 1.3 1.3

59.8% 16.7% 13.1% 55.7%

EV/EBIT-(x) G 12.8 11.8 14.9EV/EBITDA-(x) G 9.8 9.4 11.6

Sales 21.8% EBIT 61.9% EBITDA 52.9%

2013 2015Sales 90.99 110.87EBIT 9.32 15.09

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No.1  Consumer  Healthcare  Innovator    1.  What  makes  it  a  wide-­‐moat  business?    

–  50%  domes>c  market  share  in  its  consumer  healthcare  product.  Global  90%  market  share  in  its  industrial  business  niche.  

–  Highly   innova>ve   and   constantly   widening   its   moat   by   con>nuing   to  introduce  many  first  and  best  in  its  class,  where  high-­‐tech  western  peers  are  unable  to  duplicate  its  technology  even  aver  more  than  10  years.  

2.  Why  it  has  the  poten>al  to  double  in  3-­‐5  years?  –  Premiumisa>on   of   products   where   their   new   product   is   sold   out   despite  

being  priced  400%  more  than  their  previous  best  product.  –  For   the  first  >me   in   their   corporate  history,   they  decided   to   invest   in   their  

China  produc>on  plant,  so  as  to  directly  serve  their  growing  customer  base  and  grow  their  14%  market  share  in  China.  There  is  a  long  runway  to  grow  as  China’s  usage  rate  is  far  below  that  of  SG  and  HK.  

–  EBIT  in  1H16  matches  EBIT  FY2015.  3.  Management/Corporate  Culture  

–  Family  owned  business  with  more  than  80  years  of  reputa>on  to  uphold.  –  Consistent  dividend  payout  and  share  buyback  for  last  ten  years.  

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Financial  Summary  2013 2014 2015 TTM

Gross-Profit-Margin 22.2% 20.8% 22.6% 24.4%EBIT-Margin 6.2% 6.0% 7.7% 7.7%ROE 6.0% 6.8% 9.3% 11.1%Gross-Profit/Total-Assets 21.3% 20.5% 21.9% 24.0%

Cash-Conversion-Cycle 70 65 64 63EBIT/CAPEX-(x) 2.2 2.1 2.2 1.7Net-Cash-%-of-NTA 11.0% 16.3% 20.3% 19.7%

EV/EBIT-(x) 6.5 6.1 14.8 11.1EV/EBITDA-(x) 4.2 4.2 10.8 8.5

Sales 15.5% EBIT 59.9% EBITDA 31.6%

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No.1  Premium  Consumer  Product  Ar1san  1.  What  makes  it  a  wide-­‐moat  business?    

–  Enjoy   a   60%   global  market   share  where   its   brand   is   synonymous  with   the  best  quality  and  innova>on;  The  Louis  VuiLon  of  its  class.  

–  The   company   grew   its   moat   with   more   than   50   years   of   innova>on   and  invested   in   extensive   tests   equipment  which  helped   it   designed  many  new  func>onali>es.  It  also  has  a  worldwide  aver-­‐sales-­‐support  network.  

2.  Why  it  has  the  poten>al  to  double  in  3-­‐5  years?    –  Growth   amongst   its   loyal   fans   as   it   rolls   out   its   new   series.   It   is   currently  

having  low  valua>ons  and  a  recent  inclusion  into  the  mainboard  should  spur  much  interest  in  it.  

3.  Management/Corporate  Culture  –  It   survived  a  corporate  bankruptcy  when   its  previous  owner  over-­‐leveraged  

and  diversified  out  of  its  circle  of  competence.  –  Current  management   focused   relentlessly  on  Research  &  Development  and  

Inventory  &  Manpower  Management;  They  reduced  manpower  by  50%  over  10  years  while  improving  u>lisa>on  rate  of  produc>on  plants  and  improving  the  industry  standards  and  growing  their  global  sales  network.  

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Financial  Summary  2013 2014 2015 TTM

Gross-Profit-Margin 33.1% 40.2% 42.2% 42.2%EBIT-Margin 11.6% 19.7% 21.6% 21.6%ROE 10.6% 18.7% 20.3% 20.3%Gross-Profit/Total-Assets 39.3% 46.9% 46.7% 46.7%

Cash-Conversion-Cycle 105 84 88 88EBIT/CAPEX-(x) 3.6 5.6 3.4 3.4Net-Cash-%-of-NTA 56.1% 69.1% 52.2% 52.2%

EV/EBIT-(x) 6.3 6.8 8.0 9.4EV/EBITDA-(x) 4.6 5.9 6.9 8.0

Sales 27.7% EBIT 139.7% EBITDA 102.1%

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8I  Hidden  Champions  Fund  

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What  is  a  BeIer  Strategy  -­‐  Invest  in  Berkshire,    or  BuffeI's  Stock  Picks?  

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8I  Hidden  Champions  Fund  

   Currently,  we  have  the  problem  of  having  more  ac>onable  stock  ideas  than  funds  to  fully  execute  our  investment  process  to  deliver  poten>ally  greater  returns  to  our  shareholders.  We  are  exploring  the  se|ng  up  of  an  offshore  Mauri>us-­‐based  fund  structure  to  house  our  investments  to  tap  funds  from  poten>al  external  ins>tu>onal  investors.       New  ins>tu>onal  investors  and  high  net-­‐worth  individuals  subscribe  to  

get   units   in   the   fund,   like   a   unit   trust   or  mutual   fund.   Fund   registered  with   regulators/agencies   in   various   jurisdic>ons   for   distribu>on  permission  in  US,  UK,  Switzerland  and  HK.  Handling  regulatory  repor>ng  requirements  such  as  issuing  PFIC  statements  for  US  investors.       Tax-­‐free  for  both  capital  gains  and  dividend  distribu>on.  

    Daily   NAV   repor>ng   and   porholio   aLribu>on   analysis;   listed   with  Bloomberg  >cker   code;   compliance  with   regulatory   standards;  external  custodian   &   banker   (Standard   Chartered   Bank),   auditor   (KPMG),  administrator  (Trident  Trust).  

    Fund   factsheet   and   quarterly   commentary   on   investment   strategy,  porholio  ac>on.  

Bamboos  are  among  the  fastest-­‐growing  plants   in   the   world.   Remaining   hidden  underground   for   the   first   several   years,  bamboo   has   been   clocked   surging  skywards   as   fast   as   47.6   inches   in   a   24-­‐hour   period.   Had   the   bamboo   not  developed  a  strong  unseen  founda>on  it  could   not   have   sustained   its   life   as   it  grew.  Hidden  Champions,  who  pa>ently  toil   towards   worthwhile   dreams   and  goals,   building   strong   character   while  overcoming   adversity   and   challenge,  grow   the   strong   internal   founda>on   to  handle  and  scale  up  success.  

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Entrepreneurs  Inves1ng  in  Entrepreneurs  

    Caring   is   an   exac>ng,   serious   and   demanding   business,  especially   when   it   comes   to   inves>ng   in   another   person’s  financial  assets,  which  are  a  tangible  product  of  his  or  her  life’s  work,  a  repository  of  aspira>ons  for  the  future.    

    We   do   not   believe   in   pain>ng   rosy   pictures   or   beau>fying  ourselves.  We  tell  cold,  hard  truths  –  with  a  warm  and  devoted  heart.    

   We  hope   this  will   capture   the  8IH   investment  philosophy  of  entrepreneurs   inves>ng   in   entrepreneurs.   We   are   of   the  convic>on  that  the  future  is  created  one  wide-­‐moat  innovator  at  a  >me  and  each  will  flourish  from  their  own  wisdom.    

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Appendix:  Some  of  Our  Poten1al  Ac1onable  Stock  Ideas  

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Crea1ng  Unique  and  Authen1c  Holidays  for  Travellers  1.  What  makes  it  a  wide-­‐moat  business?    

–  Exclusive   leases   to   must-­‐see   award-­‐winning   aLrac>ons   and   key   player   providing   popular   and  essen>al  services  travellers  in  the  country;  and  it  is  the  market  leader  in  its  vehicle  category.  

–  A   3-­‐year   relook   into   its   business   model   resulted   in   successful   execu>on   of   stringent   cost  management,   a   less   capital   intensive   model   and   drama>c   improvement   in   opera>onal  profitability.    

2.  Why  it  has  the  poten>al  to  double  in  3-­‐5  years?    –  Well-­‐posi>oned   to   focus   on   significant   growth   with   geographical   diversifica>on   and   leading  

market  posi>on  with  a  posi>ve  tourism  environment.  –  The   embrace   of   technology   to   create   ‘shared   economy’   businesses   to   deliver   further   returns  

without  running  the  risk  of  high  capital  expenditure,  building  the  AirBnb  equivalent  to  its  version.  –  On  the  back  of  suppor>ve  dynamics  for  the  industry,  it  has  the  ability  to  scale  the  business  further  

through  value  accre>ve  acquisi>ons  but  at  the  same  >me,  it  has  to  make  sense  in  the  long  term.      3.  Management/Corporate  Culture  

–  Management  is  cognizant  to  the  changing  landscape  of  the  industry,  and  benchmark  themselves  with   world   class   standards.   They   are   never   contented   with   the   performance   and   con>nually  assess  the  categories  and  markets  it  operate  within.    

–  An  inclusive  culture  that  shares  team  success  and  believes  in  crea>ng  a  culture  with  trust  and  fun.  It  invariably  helps  the  company  to  perform  well  in  its  customer  engagement.  

–  Management  prac>ces  financial  prudence  and  careful  alloca>on  of  capital.    

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2013 2014 2015 TTM

Gross-Profit-Margin 72.6% 74.3% 74.5% 74.5%EBIT-Margin 6.4% 11.1% 15.6% 15.6%ROE 2.7% 7.0% 11.5% 11.5%

49.4% 55.6% 54.7% 54.7%

Cash-Conversion-Cycle 7 F59 F87 F87EBIT/CAPEX-(x) 5.0 15.7 9.9 9.9Net-Debt-%-of-NTA 74.8% 49.2% 40.1% 40.1%

EV/EBIT-(x) 13.1 8.4 8.4 8.7EV/EBITDA-(x) 3.3 3.4 4.2 4.6

Sales 2.5% EBIT 159.1% EBITDA 22.7%

2013 2015Sales 110.2 112.93EBIT 14.27 36.98

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HungryGoWhere  Equivalent  

1.  What  makes  it  a  wide-­‐moat  business?    –  Strong   ecosystem   >e-­‐in   with   suppliers,   users   and   customers:   Connect  

the  vast  number  of  eateries  to  one  by  the  Internet  and    create  a  "food"  culture  of  the  21st  century  

2.  Why  it  has  the  poten>al  to  double  in  3-­‐5  years?    –  Master   the   “art   of  mone>zing”   from   their   users:   direct   visits   by   sales  

staff   to  deliver   tailored   services,   the  more   the  owners   see   the   results,  the  higher  they  are  willing  to  spend  on  adver>sing/promo>ons    

–  Real  >me  online  reserva>on  system  driving  customers    

3.  Management/Corporate  Culture  –  Founder  ~37%  ownership  –  Various  long  serving  employees:  great  signal  of  intrinsic  mo>va>on  and  

confidence  in  the  business  –  Place   customer   sa>sfac>on   first   and   provide   fun,   up-­‐to-­‐date   gourmet  

informa>on  to  internet  users  every  day.  

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2013 2014 2015 TTM

Gross-Profit-Margin 73.7% 73.4% 73.5% 74.0%EBIT-Margin 14.5% 15.6% 16.7% 18.1%ROE 13.0% 14.8% 18.9% 22.2%Gross-Profit/Total-Assets 136.4% 123.0% 118.9% 114.9%

Cash-Conversion-Cycle 48 56 58 56EBIT/CAPEX-(x) 1.3 1.9 2.5 2.5Net-Debt-%-of-NTA 68.8% 75.1% 75.2% 70.8%

EV/EBIT-(x) 7.0 14.8 20.2 13.9EV/EBITDA-(x) 4.4 9.2 13.3 9.5

Sales 19.7% EBIT 71.4% EBITDA 59.0%

2013 2015Sales 27,265------ 30,519------ 32,637------EBIT 2,993-------- 4,119-------- 5,129--------

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World’s  #1  Innovator  of  Money  Handling  Machines  1.  What  makes  it  a  wide-­‐moat  business?    

–  Customer-­‐centric  business  model  backed  by  a  highly  specialised  intangible  know-­‐how  to  con>nuously  roll  out  industry-­‐first  high-­‐performance  products,  from  single-­‐func>on  to  high-­‐specifica>ons.  

–  Undisputable   market   leader   in   certain   product   categories   na>onal-­‐wide,   it   con>nues   to   acquire  complimentary,  synergis>c  businesses  to  widen  its  moat.    

–  A   ver>cally   integrated   business   model   that   creates   a   virtuous   cycle   by   offering   solu>ons   at   different  stages  of  customers’  needs,  enables  cross-­‐selling  and  ability  to  generate  higher  revenue  per  customer.    

2.  Why  it  has  the  poten>al  to  double  in  3-­‐5  years?    –  There   is   immense   untapped   growth   opportuni>es   in   overseas  markets  where   the   company   previously  

could   not   access.   There   is   momentum   and   growing   revenue   contribu>on   from   overseas   market   by  tapping  on  its  recently-­‐acquired  subsidiary’s  worldwide  and  impressive  customer  base.    

–  Compared   to   few  years  ago,   the  company   is  beLer  equipped  with  new  capabili>es   to  upsell   their  high  margin  services  aver  every  point  of  sale  to  each  customer.    

–  The  exponen>al   increase   in  money  supply,  created  by  unprecedented  quan>ta>ve  easing  (QE),   livs  the  demand  of  its  product  because  it  solves  the  urgent  need  for  speedy  money  handling.  

3.  Management/Corporate  Culture  –  Management   is   cognisant   about   relentless   push   to   innovate   their   products   to  meet   the   needs   of   the  

society  and  stay  ahead  of  the  industry.  Value  crea>on  is  in  their  company’s  DNA.  –  Employees   are   encouraged   by   a   set   of   guidelines   such   as   collabora>on,   respect,   innova>on,   and   cost-­‐

conscious.  The  culture  believes  in  making  the  impossible,  possible.    –  The  core  management  team  have  a  combined  long  tenure  in  the  business  and  laid  out  clear  medium  to  

long  term  plans  to  grow  the  business.  

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2013 2014 2015 TTM

Gross-Profit-Margin 38.6% 39.8% 39.3% 38.9%EBIT-Margin 7.6% 7.7% 8.5% 9.0%ROE 4.3% 5.3% 6.5% 6.1%

23.1% 25.6% 25.7% 25.7%

Cash-Conversion-Cycle 111 119 127 145EBIT/CAPEX-(x) 2.3 2.8 2.7 2.5

16.0% 6.7% M1.6% M1.4%

EV/EBIT-(x) 12.3 10.6 9.6 10.7EV/EBITDA-(x) 6.3 5.9 5.7 8.6

Sales 18.9% EBIT 32.7% EBITDA 26.8%

2013 2015Sales 190938 226974EBIT 14457 19179

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Operating-Efficiency

Valuation

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Gross-Profit/Total-Assets

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#1  Nutri1ous  and  Healthy  Beverage    

1.  What  makes  it  a  wide-­‐moat  business?    –  Ability  to  inculcate  the  fondness  for  the  drink  in  the  consumers  at  a  

young  age  so  that  it  eventually  develops  into  a  “habit”  consuming  it  –  The  beverage   is  more  than  a  casual  drink.   It   represents  quality  and  

wholesomeness.    2.  Why  it  has  the  poten>al  to  double  in  3-­‐5  years?    

–  Building  factories  to  fund  the  next  stage  of  growth  in  China  –  “Tailwind”  of  health  trends  for  nutri>ous  products    –  Constant  products  innova>on  and  localiza>on  to  increase  sales  

3.  Management/Corporate  Culture  –  Old   heritage   family   business   with   a   reputa>on   to   upkeep   thus  

lowering  corporate  governance  risk  –  Family  ~15%  ownership  –  Idea   larger   than   oneself:   providing   nutri>ous   beverage   for   the  

masses  at  the  lowest  possible  price  

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2013 2014 2015 TTM

Gross-Profit-Margin 47.5% 48.4% 49.7% 50.6%EBIT-Margin 10.9% 10.4% 10.4% 11.2%ROE 18.6% 17.5% 19.4% 24.1%Gross-Profit/Total-Assets 65.4% 67.1% 69.0% 68.1%

Cash-Conversion-Cycle 69 67 69 59EBIT/CAPEX-(x) 2.6 2.0 1.0 0.9Net-(Debt)/Cash-%-of-NTA P1.9% 11.4% 9.4% 10.0%

EV/EBIT-(x) 20.5 24.6 23.4 22.4EV/EBITDA-(x) 14.7 17.6 17.0 16.7

Sales 24.7% EBIT 19.2% EBITDA 17.4%

2013 2015Sales 4,051-------- 4,494-------- 5,052--------EBIT 442----------- 467----------- 527-----------

Profitability

Operating-Efficiency

Valuation

3-Year-Growth

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Hidden  Global  Mo1on  Enabler  1.  What  makes  it  a  wide-­‐moat  business?    

–  More  than  50  years  of  innova>on  and  acquired  technologies;  its  solu>ons  are  the  quietest,  lightest  and  have  the  highest  power-­‐to-­‐weight  ra>o.  

–  It  has  global  produc>on  facili>es  in  Asia,  Europe  and  the  Americas,  allowing  it  to   have   a   lean   logis>cs   management   solu>on   that   serves   its   clients   very  closely.  Its  Automo>ve  clients  include  premium  brands.  

2.  Why  it  has  the  poten>al  to  double  in  3-­‐5  years?    –  Ver>cal   and   horizontal   integra>on   with   synergis>c   M&A,   increasing   their  

cross  sales  and  new  sales  poten>al.  –  The  US  automo>ve  industry  is  experiencing  a  boom,  and  there  is  a  structural  

adop>on   of   motorized   func>onali>es,   in   both   automo>ve   and   industrial  segments.  

3.  Management/Corporate  Culture  –  Family  owned  business  with  more  than  60  years  reputa>on  to  uphold.  –  Has  an  excellent  M&A  execu>on   track   record.  All   three  acquisi>ons   turned  

out   to   be   their   top   business   units   which   lasted   more   than   10   years,  increasing  their  overall  sales  manifold.  

–  Increasing  dividends,  very  aggressive  share  buyback  in  last  one  year.  For

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Financial  Summary  2013 2014 2015 TTM

Gross-Profit-Margin 27.0% 28.5% 28.6% 28.3%EBIT-Margin 12.0% 11.6% 11.6% 9.1%ROE 14.2% 12.3% 11.3% 11.5%Gross-Profit/Total-Assets 24.7% 23.9% 21.5% 21.2%

Cash-Conversion-Cycle 79 66 75 67EBIT/CAPEX-(x) 3.0 2.5 1.8 1.4Net-Cash-%-of-NTA 23.4% 30.8% 28.9% 39.3%

EV/EBIT-(x) 9.3 11.4 10.9 13.4EV/EBITDA-(x) 6.8 8.4 7.9 9.0

Sales 3.6% EBIT 22.9% EBITDA 15.9%

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Global  #1  Bus  Manufacturer  1.  What  makes  it  a  wide-­‐moat  business?    

–  Having   the   largest   and   the   most   technologically   advanced   manufacturing  base  of  large  and  medium-­‐sized  buses  in  the  world.  

–  Enjoyed  great  economies  of   scale  and  reinvest  substan>ally  back   into  R&D  to  widen  the  edge  over  compe>tors  

–  Domes>c  market  share  ~30%  /  Global  ~12%  2.  Why  it  has  the  poten>al  to  double  in  3-­‐5  years?    

–  Constant  innova>on  over  the  years.  •  Successfully  engineered  the  world  1st  driverless  bus  •  New  Energy  Bus  

–  Further  consolida>on  of  the  market    –  Expansion  overseas  

3.  Management/Corporate  Culture  –  35  years  of  vast  experience  in  the  company  –  Worked  his  way  from  a  small  engineer  to  the  CEO  of  the  company  –  Management  philosophy:  Customer  and  employees  always  comes  first  

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2012 2013 2014 TTM

Gross,Profit,Margin 21.2% 21.7% 26.4% 25.0%EBIT,Margin 7.5% 8.4% 10.7% 11.4%ROE 20.5% 20.9% 23.9% 23.9%Gross,Profit/Total,Assets 28.4% 26.9% 26.7% 26.7%

Cash,Conversion,Cycle 15 41 32 32EBIT/CAPEX,(x) 0.8 2.0 1.4 1.4Net,Cash,%,of,NTA 30.4% 43.1% 35.3% 35.3%

EV/EBIT,(x) 10.2 10.2 10.7 14.0EV/EBITDA,(x) 8.6 7.8 8.6 11.2

Sales 30.0% EBIT 83.8% EBITDA 90.9%

2012 2014Sales 19,748,,,,,, 25,679,,,,,,EBIT 1,489,,,,,,,, 1,857,,,,,,,, 2,737,,,,,,,,

Profitability

Operating,Efficiency

Valuation

3,Year,Growth

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#1  Cookware  Company  

1.  What  makes  it  a  wide-­‐moat  business?    –  Constant  innova>on  yearly  tailoring  to  the  demand  and  needs  of  the  consumers  –  #1  in  its  country:  pressure  cooker,  frying  pan,  wok,  steamer  and  electric  cooker  –  #2   in   its   country:   Rice   cooker,   electric   pressure   cooker,   electric   cooker,   electric  

keLle    

2.  Why  it  has  the  poten>al  to  double  in  3-­‐5  years?    –  Great  synergies  between  European  MNC  owners  whereby  owners  transfer  orders  

to  company  to  lower  cost,  the  company  tap  onto  the  owners  network  to  expand  overseas  and  also  exchange  of  technologies  to  improve  on  cookware  produc>on.  

–  Strong  local  and  overseas  demands  

3.  Management/Corporate  Culture  –  Majority   owned   by   a   European  MNC  with   capable   local  managers  with   “owner  

operator”  mindset  –  Typical   Berkshire   Hathaway   opera>ng   company   where   owners/managers   have  

autonomy  

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Financial  Summary  2012 2013 2014 TTM

Gross,Profit,Margin 30.4% 29.6% 30.1% 28.7%EBIT,Margin 8.4% 9.0% 8.9% 9.2%ROE 15.8% 18.1% 18.1% 18.1%Gross,Profit/Total,Assets 42.4% 43.5% 43.2% 43.2%

Cash,Conversion,Cycle 73 65 56 56EBIT/CAPEX,(x) 6.2 7.3 6.8 6.8Net,Cash,%,of,NTA 39.9% 45.5% 54.2% 54.2%

EV/EBIT,(x) 12.5 11.2 10.9 15.2EV/EBITDA,(x) 10.8 9.9 9.8 13.8

Sales 38.4% EBIT 47.3% EBITDA 41.8%

2012 2014Sales 6,889,,,,,,,, 8,383,,,,,,,, 9,534,,,,,,,,EBIT 578,,,,,,,,,,, 752,,,,,,,,,,, 852,,,,,,,,,,,

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2nd  Largest  Domes1c  Elevator  Maker  1.  What  makes  it  a  wide-­‐moat  business?    

–  It  has  a  20%  domes>c  travellator  market  share.  Its  products  are  exported  to  80  countries  globally,   including  US,  EU,  AU,  ME  &  Asia.   Its  clients   include  IKEA,  Carrefour,  Wal-­‐Mart,  LVMH  and  Burberry.  

–  Constant   research   and   innova>on   enables   it   to   recently   rank   on   par   with   high-­‐tech  established  peers  with  its  high  speed  and  eco-­‐friendly  livs.  

–  It   has   a   superior   24-­‐hour   servicing   capability   that   forms   a   virtuous   cycle   with   its  manufacturing  and  sales  division.  

2.  Why  it  has  the  poten>al  to  double  in  3-­‐5  years?    –  Domes>c  market  has  low  liv  density  compared  to  developed  countries,  and  most  of  the  

livs  are  old  and  due  for  replacement.  Local  government  enacted  tough  safety  rules  that  requires  replacement  and  servicing.  

–  Established   a   training   center   to   improve   industry   standards   by   training   and   cer>fying  service   crew.   Implemented   Internet   of   Things   system   onto   its   network   of   livs,  travellators   and  escalators  which  enables   them   to  pre-­‐empt  breakdowns  and   servicing  needs  and  have  faster  response  >me.  

3.  Management/Corporate  Culture  –  Humble   management   who   worked   through   the   ranks   over   10   years.   Treats   team  

members   as   family   –   Family   has   30%   shareholdings,   veteran   team   members   owns  another  20%.  

–  Distributed  90%  of  IPO  proceeds  to  shareholders  in  3  years  while  management  were  paid  2%  of  Profit  Before  Tax  (PBT).  

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Financial  Summary  2013 2014 2015 TTM

Gross-Profit-Margin 24.5% 26.9% 28.5% 29.4%EBIT-Margin 8.7% 9.0% 10.0% 9.9%ROE 10.8% 13.0% 15.1% 15.8%Gross-Profit/Total-Assets 26.2% 27.6% 22.1% 29.8%

Cash-Conversion-Cycle 28 29 27 27EBIT/CAPEX-(x) 3.0 2.2 1.6 1.9Net-Cash-%-of-NTA 79.6% 56.9% 63.1% 43.8%

EV/EBIT-(x) 7.2 12.0 10.3 21.4EV/EBITDA-(x) 6.2 10.5 9.1 18.9

Sales 37.2% EBIT 67.3% EBITDA 59.5%

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Leading  Healthy  Snack  Company  1.  What  makes  it  a  wide-­‐moat  business?    

–  Hidden  Champion  with  62%  domes>c  market  share   in  healthy  snacks  while  expor>ng  to  35  countries.    

–  Export   revenue   has   been   growing   steadily   and   con>nuously,   which  accoun>ng  for  43%  of  total  sales  now.  

–  Ability   to   constantly   introduce   new   taste   and   flavor   snack   into   the  market  which  is  well  received.  

2.  Why  it  has  the  poten>al  to  double  in  3-­‐5  years?    –  Target  to  be  the  leader  of  the  snack  market  in  Asian  by  2018  –  Aggressive   expansion   plans   in   place   to   increase   current   produc>on  

line  and  capacity  to  feed  increasing  demand.    

3.  Management/Corporate  Culture  –  Entrepreneur-­‐run  business  emphasizing  a  lot  in  innova>on  and    R&D  F

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Financial  Summary  2012 2013

Gross)Profit)Margin 29.7% 34.5%EBIT)Margin 6.8% 6.8%ROE 42.5% 49.9%Gross)Profit/Total)Assets 72.9% 86.0%

Cash)Conversion)Cycle 22 22EBIT/CAPEX)(x) 1.6 2.5Net)Debt)%)of)NTA P133.2% P145.1%

EV/EBIT)(x) P PEV/EBITDA)(x) P P

Sales 7.2% EBIT 58.9% EBITDA 47.4%

2012 2014Sales 2,542)))))))) 2,726))))EBIT 172.58 274.31

Valuation

3)Year)Growth

P95.3%

P

74.2%

P

2014

34.8%10.1%56.3%

172.8

Profitability

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Leading  Fully  Integrated  In-­‐land  Logis1cs  Service  Provider  

1.  What  makes  it  a  wide-­‐moat  business?    –  Hidden  Champion  owns  and  operates  40  different  warehouses  with  total  space  of  210,000  m2  

and  an  area  of  around  557,000m2  for  automakers  to  rent  for  parking  their  cars  before  expor>ng.  –  Opera>ons  located  at  the  busiest  port  in  the  country  having  30  years  of  exclusive  rights  to  

manage  chemical  &  dangerous  goods    –  Has  the  ability  and  know-­‐how  in  develop  and  employ  warehouse  management  sovware  to  

ensure  maximum  efficiency.    

2.  Why  it  has  the  poten>al  to  double  in  3-­‐5  years?    –  Venture  into  neighboring  country  to  capture  exploding  demand  for  logis>cs  services.  –  Looking  to  form  a  logis>cs  REITs  to  expand  business  through  M&A  to  gain  more  market  share  –  Aim  to  be  ASEAN  leader  by  2019  

3.  Management/Corporate  Culture  –  Entrepreneur  run  business  –  Emphasizes  a  lot  on  innova>on.  Developed  strong  know-­‐how  and  gained  prac>cal  experiences  

for  more  than  35  years  in  warehouse  management  efficiency  –  Founder’s  family  holds  50%  of  the  company  

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Financial  Summary  2012 2013 2014 TTM

GrossProfitMargin 37.8% 41.0% 36.0% 36.6%EBITMargin 17.4% 25.2% 11.6% 18.0%ROE 16.7% 25.3% 9.5% 10.6%GrossProfit/TotalAssets 19.4% 20.9% 18.0% 18.0%

CashConversionCycle 7 -13 19 6EBIT/CAPEX(x) - - - 1.3NetDebt%ofNTA 120.0% 144.2% 274.4% 64.1%

EV/EBIT(x) - - - 20.7EV/EBITDA(x) - - - 13.4

Sales 36.4% EBIT -8.6% EBITDA N/A

2012 2014Sales 1675 2284EBIT 291 266

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No.1  Domes1c  Air-­‐con  &  Refrigerator  Maker  1.  What  makes  it  a  wide-­‐moat  business?    

–  It  Innovated  an  air-­‐con  solu>on  that  addresses  local  needs  and  thus  garnered  a  loyal  following  over  the  past  50  years.    

–  It  has  a  35%  domes>c  air-­‐con  market  share,  and  a  25%  domes>c  refrigerator  market  share.  

–  It  has  an  unparalleled  extensive  aver-­‐sales  service  network.  2.  Why  it  has  the  poten>al  to  double  in  3-­‐5  years?    

–  Domes>c   market   has   low   air-­‐con   and   refrigerator   densi>es   compared   to  other   Asian   countries.   Thus,   there   is   a   long   runway   to   grow   as   disposable  income  grows.  

–  Great  focus  to  grow  its  building  management  solu>on  business  which  require  much   higher   barrier   to   entry   and   increases   its   s>ckiness   as   customers   are  >ed  to  their  solu>on  through  the  lives  of  the  buildings.  

3.  Management/Corporate  Culture  –  Family  owned  business  with  more  than  50  years  of  reputa>on  to  uphold.  –  Current   management   built   the   current   deep   reach   of   aver-­‐sales   servicing,  

and  the  new  building  management  solu>on  business.  

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Financial  Summary  2012 2013 2014 TTM

Gross,Profit,Margin 25.8% 32.3% 33.1% 31.0%

EBIT,Margin 10.4% 11.8% 12.9% 15.9%

ROE 33.3% 22.1% 23.5% 20.5%

Gross,Profit/Total,Assets 35.1% 50.9% 40.1% 39.5%

Cash,Conversion,Cycle 123 121 136 133

EBIT/CAPEX,(x) 10.8 15.0 22.5 16.3

Net,Cash,%,of,NTA 107.2% 59.2% 26.4% 34.3%

EV/EBIT,(x) O 3.4 11.7 9.2

EV/EBITDA,(x) O 3.2 11.1 8.7

Sales 32.2% EBIT 71.6% EBITDA 68.4%

Profitability

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Valuation

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Top  Educa1on  Solu1on  Provider  1.  What  makes  it  a  wide-­‐moat  business?    

–  Hidden  Champion    with  strong,  leading  posi>on  and  the  only  player  with  ICT  know-­‐how  in  educa>on  solu>on  provider  industry  to  win  government  tenders  and  penetrate  into  new  business  segment  and  market.  

–  Operates  in  a  boring  industry  which  Industry  peers  become  complacent  and  lack  of  commitment  and  innova>ve  ideas  to  grow  their  business  forward.  

2.  Why  it  has  the  poten>al  to  double  in  3-­‐5  years?    –  Quietly  consolida>ng  this  fragmented  industry,  taking  over  its  peers  that  has  valuable  

Intellectual  Proper>es.  –  The  only  player  in  the  industry  that  meets  Government’s  latest  educa>on  material  

requirements  making  them  able  to  win  more  tenders.    –  Growing  into  ASEAN  market  providing  publishing,  content  crea>on  and  digitaliza>on  services.  

3.  Management/Corporate  Culture  –  Entrepreneur  run  business    –  Managing  Director  with  30  years  experience,  while  core  team  members  work  in  the  company  

for  more  than  20  years.  Management  hold  >50%  of  the  company.  –  Managing  Director:  “This  business  is  not  a  typical  family  business  where  it  will  be  handover  to  

my  2nd  genera>on.  I  constantly  tell  my  team  that  anyone  with  extensive  experience  in  this  industry  and  have  the  capabili>es  to  bring  the  company  forward  will  become  the  next  CEO.  This  company  is  aiming  to  become  a  regional  player,  not  just  locally.”  

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2013 2014 2015 TTM

Gross-Profit-Margin 41.2% 46.3% 47.5% 47.5%EBIT-Margin 22.7% 21.8% 24.8% 24.8%ROE 20.0% 13.1% 14.9% 14.9%Gross-Profit/Total-Assets 42.2% 32.1% 28.8% 28.8%

Cash-Conversion-Cycle 193 297 361 361EBIT/CAPEX-(x) 13.2 14.4 1.0 1.0Net-Cash/(Debt)-%-of-NTA 18.1% 22.9% P2.2% P2.2%

EV/EBIT-(x) P 8.8 13.3 15.3EV/EBITDA-(x) P 7.9 11.9 13.8

Sales 11.5% EBIT 22.2% EBITDA 20.0%

2013 2015Sales 78 87EBIT 18 22

Profitability

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Valuation

3-Year-Growth

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1.  What  makes  it  a  wide-­‐moat  business?    –  Focus  on  tailor-­‐made  elevator  to  differen>ate  itself  with  other  players.  –  Synergy   across   3   business   segment   (Manufacturing,   Distribu>on   of   E&E  

components,  Maintenances).  By  serving  1  customer,  all  3  segments  has  sales.  –  The  maintenances  base  will  con>nue  to  enlarge  because  more  than  90%  of  its  

new  manufactured  elevators  are  serviced  by  them  every  year.  –  It   is   a   rule   by   government   that   ALL   elevators  must   be   serviced   on  monthly  

basis.  

2.  Why  it  has  the  poten>al  to  double  in  3-­‐5  years?    –  Increasing  EBIT  contribu>on  from  Services  and  Maintenances  segment  -­‐  from  

3.2%  in  FY2010  to  22%  in  FY2015  –  Aggressive   growing   its   business   in   oversea   market   by   con>nue   M&A.   Their  

profit  contribu>on  from  domes>c  and  interna>onally  will  be  50:50  by  FY2020.  

3.  Management/Corporate  Culture  –  3  Execu>ve  Directors  has  more  than  20  years  experience  in  elevator  business  –  Founders  holding  ~36%  stake  

Leading  Elevator  Manufacturer  F

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2013 2014 2015 TTM

Gross-Profit-Margin 27.5% 27.5% 28.0% 28.0%EBIT-Margin 11.5% 9.2% 13.1% 13.2%ROE 14.5% 10.9% 15.7% 15.7%Gross-Profit/Total-Assets 23.2% 32.5% 33.4% 33.4%

Cash-Conversion-Cycle 294 194 214 214EBIT/CAPEX-(x) 41 1 16 16Net-Cash-%-of-NTA 10.2% 5.8% 12.4% 12.4%

EV/EBIT-(x) 4.1 9.9 4.5 4.6EV/EBITDA-(x) 3.9 9.0 4.2 14.3

Sales 13.8% EBIT 33.3% EBITDA 36.4%

2013 2015Sales 189 215EBIT 21 28

Profitability

Operating-Efficiency

Valuation

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