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80.6 n

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Definition of Soft Power

“What is soft power? It is the ability to get what you want through attraction rather than coercion or payment. It arises from the attractiveness of a country’s culture, political ideals, and policies. When our policies are seen as legitimate in the eyes of others, our soft power is enhanced… When you can get others to admire your ideals and to want what you want, you do not have to spend as much on sticks and carrots to move them in your direction.”

-- Joseph S. Nye Jr

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Project Goals

• Examine the current state of Russian soft power by using Estonia as a case study.

• Analyze Russian Compatriot Policy which seeks to codify the relationship of the Russian diaspora to its homeland

• Quantify the impact of Compatriot Policy, as a soft power foreign policy tool, particularly on young people in the Russian diaspora.

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Project Methodology

•The report is supported by the results of a comprehensive survey conducted by CSIS in 2009 and 2010.

•Data for these surveys was generated through interviews with three thousand individuals between the ages of 16 and 29, including an equal number of Russians living in Russia, native Estonians living in Estonia and ethnic Russians living in Estonia.

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Russian Compatriot Policy

• Non-Governmental Organizations• Media• Political Influence• Legal Action• The Russian Orthodox Church

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Nongovernmental Organizations(NGOs)

• Primary and most public Russian soft-power instrument

• The Russia House network includes over 50 centers and has a budget between $26 - $30 million

• The Russkiy Mir Foundation includes 65 centers and has an annual budget of $17.5 million

• Stated goal of these centers is to popularize Russian language and promote cross-cultural dialogue

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Media

• Media outreach includes newspapers, magazines, television and radio.

• Mixes traditional tools of soft power with overt propaganda

• Dissemination is coordinated through the Russkiy Mir Foundation

• This year, over $2 million on 74 broadcasts and advertisements targeting Russian compatriots in Estonia

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Political Influence

• Moscow funds political parties that represent the interest of the Russian minority, viewed as a “viable means” to exercise political influence abroad

• Examples of Russian partners: Center Party (Estonia), Harmony Center (Latvia), Union of Russians (Lithuania), Movement for Fair Georgia, Party of Regions (Ukraine), Democratic Party (Moldova)

• Tallinn’s Mayor accepted €1.5 million from Russian Railways prior to March 2011 parliamentary elections to promote his Center Party

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Legal Action

• Russia has used the European Court of Human Rights to file claims on behalf of the Russian diaspora

•More than 828 claims have been brought against Estonia in the ECHR. 98% have been deemed inadmissible. The number of these claims brought by Russia is not reported.

• Russia has publicly chastised Estonia over alleged human rights violations in the UNHCR, OSCE and Council of Europe

• In 2006, the Russian Deputy Foreign Minister stated that Russia “intends actively to use the podium of the U.N. rights body for drawing attention to the negative humanitarian situation in Latvia and Estonia.”

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The Russian Orthodox Church

• The Church has reclaimed the historical concept of Svjataja Rus (Holy Russia) to revive the “spiritual unity of Russian compatriots”

• The Russian Federal Assembly provides state support for the founding of compatriot religious organizations abroad

• President Medvedev has called the church “an effective rallying point for the entire Orthodox world <that> helps maintain spiritual and cultural ties with the homeland.”

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The Reach of Russian Compatriot Policy:Georgia, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Ukraine

• Russkiy Mir network has global presence, including support of extremist groups (Ukraine)• Russian media is widespread, especially Kremlin-controlled Pervyi Kanal (First Baltic Channel) • United Russia Party has partnerships with pro-Russian parties in each country (except Lithuania)• Russia has filed human rights complaints in all five countries, but less so in Lithuania• High popularity and influence of Russian Orthodox Church

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Table 1. Survey Characteristics

Number Surveyed

Born in current country

University educated

Fluent Estonian speaker Unemployed

Top household earnings quintile

Bottom household

earnings quintile

Estonia:

Estonians 1,003 99.2% 22.0% 100.0% 10.6% 15.0% 27.1%Russian citizens of Estonia 667 96.3% 26.5% 24.7% 13.0% 6.8% 36.5%Russian non-citizens in Estonia 338 96.2% 12.1% 6.5% 22.8% 4.2% 41.0%

Russian Federation:

Ethnic Russians 928 95.4% 29.9% NA 9.4% 24.3% 14.9%

Non-Russians 88 86.4% 33.0% NA 19.3% 19.4% 23.9%

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2%

2%

0%

24%

18%

7%

51%

54%

22%

18%

17%

17%

4%

9%

49% 5%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Russian Federation

Estonian Russians

Estonians

Figure 6. What influence, if any, have Russian government statements and actions had on the actual situation of Russians in Estonia (asked of

those who have heard of such statements/ actions)?

Very positive

Somewhat positive

No influence

Don't know/refuse

Somewhat negative

Very negative

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13%

10%

26%

31%

8%

6%

25%

42%

45%

49%

22%

9%

8%

13%

6%

7%

6%

2%

7%

31%

35%

5%

3%

36%

33%

18%

16%

38%

22%

18%

12%

46%

20%

8%

1%

25%

37%

33%

81%

36%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

RF ethnic Russians

RF non-ethnic Russians

Estonian Russians, blue

Estonian Russians, gray

Estonians

RF ethnic Russians

RF non-ethnic Russians

Estonian Russians

Estonians

Rus

sia

Esto

nia

Figure 7. How accurately does "a strong economy" describe Russia/ Estonia?

Completely

Somewhat

Hard to Say

Not much

Not at all

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Key Policy Recommendations

Integrate the Russian Minority• Estonia should promote friendship networks, increase workplace diversity at the workplace and promote NGOs that focus on shared social and political interests.

• Offer more language classes to Russian adults and training courses for workers to reduce high unemployment

• The Russian government should actively encourage the engagement of the Russian minority in Estonia politically, economically and socially.

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