7. atmospheric supply of pcdd/fs to the baltic sea in 2015 · atmospheric supply of pcdd/fs to the...

Atmospheric Supply of PCDD/Fs to the Baltic Sea in 2015

121

7. Atmospheric Supply of PCDD/Fs to the Baltic Sea in 2015

In this chapter the results of model evaluation of dioxins and furans (PCDD/Fs) atmospheric

input to the Baltic Sea and its sub-basins for 2015 is presented. Modelling of PCDD/F

atmospheric transport and deposition was carried out using MSC-E Eulerian Persistent Organic

Pollutant transport model MSCE-POP (Gusev et al., 2005). Latest available official information

on PCDD/F emission from EMEP countries, including all HELCOM countries, was used in

model computations. Evaluation of PCDD/F contamination of the EMEP and the Baltic Sea

regions was carried out using officially submitted PCDD/F emissions and scenario of adjusted

PCDD/F emissions prepared by EMEP/MSC-E. Model simulations using official emission data

underestimate observed levels of PCDD/F concentrations. The use of emission scenario obtained

on the basis of inverse modelling approach and available measurements permit to obtain

reasonable agreement of modelling results with observed PCDD/F pollution levels. Description

of this approach and prepared scenario of PCDD/F emissions for the EMEP domain can be found

in the EMEP Status Reports (Shatalov et al., 2012; Gusev et al., 2013). Based on these modelling

results annual and monthly levels of PCDD/F deposition to the Baltic Sea have been obtained and

contributions of HELCOM countries emission sources to the deposition over the Baltic Sea are

estimated.

7.1 PCDD/Fs emissions

a) b)

Figure 7.1. Annual total anthropogenic emissions of PCDD/F in the Baltic Sea region for 2012 according

to officially reported information by EMEP countries (a) and scenario of PCDD/F emissions prepared by

EMEP/MSC-E (b), ng TEQ/m2/y.

EMEP Centres Joint Report for HELCOM

122

Figure 7.2. Annual PCDD/F emissions from Public

Power sector for 2015, g TEQ/grid cell/y (white

color means no information), (official emission

data).

Figure 7.3. Annual PCDD/F emissions from

Industrial Combustion sector for 2015, g TEQ/grid

cell/y (white color means no information) , (official

emission data).

Figure 7.4. Annual PCDD/F emissions from Small

Combustion sector for 2015, g TEQ/grid cell/y

(white color means no information) , (official

emission data).


Fugitive Emissions sector for 2015, g TEQ/grid


emission data).


123


Solvents sector for 2015, g TEQ/grid cell/y (white

color means no information) , (official emission

data).

Figure 7.7. Annual PCDD/F emissions from Road

Transport sector for 2015, g TEQ/grid cell/y (white


data).


Shipping Emissions sector for 2015, g TEQ/grid


emission data).


Aviation sector for 2015, g TEQ/grid cell/y (white


data).


124

Figure 7.10. Annual PCDD/F emissions from Off

Road sector for 2015, g TEQ/grid cell/y (white


data).


Waste sector for 2015, g TEQ/grid cell/y (white


data).


Agricultural Other sector for 2015, g TEQ/grid


emission data).


Other sector for 2015, g TEQ/grid cell/y (white


data).


125

Table 7.1. Annual total PCDD/F anthropogenic emissions of HELCOM countries from different sectors

for 2015, in g TEQ/y

GNFR

emission

sector

Sector name Denmark Estonia Finland Germany Latvia Lithuania Poland Russia1 Sweden

A Public Power 1.011 1.012 3.734 5.614 0.632 2.354 13.110 63.679 6.452

B Industry 0.364 0.325 4.250 24.399 1.606 0.517 73.417 356.611 5.369

C

Other

Stationary

Combustion

14.507 0.973 1.276 25.320 12.414 15.958 139.510 677.647 3.498

D Fugitive

Emissions 0.002 4.0E-06 0.201 0.018 0.048 2.937 14.268 0.265

E Solvents 0.193 0.0002 0.011 0.024 1.7E-04 0.0003 0.004 0.019 0.0004

F Road

Transport 0.123 0.311 2.890 2.571 0.121 0.462 6.560 31.865 0.489

G Shipping

Emissions 0.062 0.013 2.267 NA 2.4E-05 0.0002 0.001 0.017

H Aviation 0.0003 NA NE NE NE NA NE

I Off Road 0.128 9.0E-05 0.004 0.528 0.001 0.073 0.355 0.007

J Waste 7.677 1.512 1.855 1.147 0.740 4.417 38.347 186.266 6.553

L Agricultural

Other 0.026 0.015 0.025 0.001 16.257 78.963 NA

M Other NO NO NO NA 0.227 NO NA 5.691

Total 24.095 4.133 14.249 61.888 15.766 23.759 290.216 1409.676 28.341

NO – not occurring, an activity or process does not exist within a country.

NA – not applicable, the process or activity exists but emissions are considered never to occur.

NE – not estimated, emissions occur but have not been estimated or reported in this submission. 1 – Distribution of PCDD/F emission from Russia by sectors for 2015 was estimated by CEIP.


126

PCDD/F emission, Denmark

C

60%J

32%

A

4%

B

2%

E

1%

Other

1%

PCDD/F emission, Estonia

J

36%

A

24%

C

24%

B

8%

F

8%

Other

0.01%

Figure 7.14. Contributions of different sectors to

annual PCDD/F emissions of Denmark in 2015


annual PCDD/F emissions of Estonia in 2015

PCDD/F emission, Finland

B

30%

A

26%F

20%

J

13%

C

9%

Other

2%

PCDD/F emission, Germany

C

41%

B

39%

A

9%

F

4%

G

4%

Other

3%


annual PCDD/F emissions of Finland in 2015


annual PCDD/F emissions of Germany in 2015

PCDD/F emission, Latvia

C

79%

B

10%

J

5%

A

4%

M

1%

Other

1%

PCDD/F emission, Lithuania

C

67%J

19%

A

10%

B

2%

F

2%

Other

0.2%


annual PCDD/F emissions of Latvia in 2015


annual PCDD/F emissions of Lithuania in 2015


127

PCDD/F emission, Poland

C

48%

B

25%

J

13%

L

6%

A

5%

Other

3%

PCDD/F emission, Russia

C

48%

B

25%

J

13%

L

6%

A

5%

Other

3%


annual PCDD/F emissions of Poland in 2015


annual PCDD/F emissions of Russia in 2015

PCDD/F emission, Sweden

J

23%

A

23%

M

20%

B

19%

C

12%

Other

3%


annual PCDD/F emissions of Sweden in 2015


128

Denmark Estonia

Finland Germany

Figure 7.23. Fractions of annual anthropogenic PCDD/F emissions of HELCOM Parties deposited to the

Baltic Sea in 2015 (expressed as a percent of national anthropogenic emission deposited to the particular

grid cells).


129

Latvia Lithuania

Poland Russia

Figure 7.23. (cont.) Fractions of annual anthropogenic PCDD/F emissions of HELCOM Parties deposited

to the Baltic Sea in 2015 (expressed as a percent of national anthropogenic emission deposited to the

particular grid cells).


130

Sweden

Figure 7.23. (cont.) Fractions of annual anthropogenic PCDD/F emissions of HELCOM Parties deposited

to the Baltic Sea in 2015 (expressed as a percent of national anthropogenic emission deposited to the

particular grid cells).


131

Table 7.2. Annual anthropogenic PCDD/F emissions of HELCOM countries and other EMEP countries

in period 1990-2015, g TEQ/year (Expert estimates of emissions are shaded, (Tista et al., 2017b))

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

DK 67 65 60 54 51 49 46 41 33 29 32 32 28 EE 8.1 8.0 5.3 4.2 4.2 5.6 6.3 6.3 7.1 7.1 6.7 6.6 6.9 FI 34 34 30 31 37 37 33 33 33 34 34 32 33 DE 750 631 504 375 260 245 221 213 200 180 166 144 121 LV 23 26 24 25 24 25 26 25 25 29 23 32 25 LT 28 30 20 23 21 21 23 24 29 26 23 28 28 PL 328 340 346 383 353 369 373 360 300 302 271 272 286 RU 1410 1410 1410 1410 1410 1410 1410 1410 1410 1410 1410 1410 1410 SE 67 60 57 54 51 47 46 44 42 42 40 41 41 AL 26 28 19 18 22 19 19 19 19 18 19 19 20 AM 54 54 53 51 50 49 48 48 48 47 47 47 47 AT 161 135 77 67 56 59 60 59 56 54 52 52 38 AZ 0.080 0.080 0.080 0.080 0.080 0.080 0.080 0.080 0.079 0.070 0.074 0.130 0.208 BY 22 21 19 16 14 13 14 17 18 16 24 30 23 BE 576 537 492 448 426 398 385 340 277 192 117 79 59 BA 67 67 67 67 67 67 67 67 67 67 67 65 63 BG 74 65 84 86 96 97 99 98 105 89 112 91 95 HR 46 48 41 43 39 40 43 41 42 41 38 41 39 CY 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.6 CZ 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 58 60 FR 1782 1832 1860 1917 1921 1723 1508 1076 976 649 557 425 397 GE 0.297 0.297 0.297 0.297 0.297 0.297 0.297 0.297 0.297 0.297 0.297 0.297 0.297 GR 279 279 279 279 279 279 279 279 279 279 279 255 231 HU 105 103 78 80 69 66 67 67 57 55 72 76 59 IS 13 12 12 11 10 9.3 8.3 7.7 6.4 5.2 4.7 3.9 3.6 IE 66 65 57 57 52 49 50 45 44 39 40 40 46 IT 503 518 496 473 463 484 449 455 447 425 404 321 292 KZ 340 340 340 340 340 340 340 340 340 340 340 340 340 KY 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 46 30 LI 0.027 0.022 0.024 0.022 0.024 0.020 0.018 0.019 0.020 0.020 0.027 0.019 0.019 LU 43 41 38 41 35 34 23 14 8.0 8.3 5.7 2.8 2.6 MT 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 MC 0.079 1.1 1.1 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.5 ME 2.6 2.4 2.3 2.1 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.1 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.7 2.0 NL 742 641 499 356 213 66 59 53 46 39 31 32 31 NO 120 90 91 89 88 64 43 35 30 34 30 30 29 PT 527 526 527 528 525 526 583 671 516 462 330 175 160 MD 37 23 8.6 8.8 10 6.9 9.5 8.4 7.3 7.5 7.9 8.1 6.4 RO 1537 1253 1202 1152 1101 1051 965 879 793 707 622 409 355 RUA 375 375 375 375 375 375 375 375 375 375 375 375 375 RS 54 47 43 37 38 39 41 37 40 36 43 44 45 SK 111 103 98 88 83 77 76 76 74 73 72 65 61 SI 19 17 16 15 13 13 13 12 13 12 12 13 13 ES 384 357 404 396 387 419 178 157 157 161 176 167 170 CH 203 187 174 161 145 130 122 110 92 84 72 61 46 TJ 25 26 26 27 27 28 28 28 29 29 29 30 30 MK 16 15 15 15 14 14 13 14 15 15 18 15 16 TR 1012 1012 1012 1012 1012 1012 1012 1012 1012 1012 1012 952 892 TM 27 27 28 29 30 31 31 32 32 32 33 33 34 UA 1193 1159 1125 1091 1057 1024 990 956 922 888 854 820 786 GB 1356 1324 1269 1070 851 876 608 557 460 419 349 342 311 UZ 102 104 107 109 112 114 116 118 120 121 123 124 126


132

Table 7.2 (continued). Annual anthropogenic PCDD/F emissions of HELCOM countries and other

EMEP countries in period 1990-2015, g TEQ/year (Expert estimates of emissions are shaded, (Tista et al.,

2017b)) 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

DK 32 26 27 27 31 30 26 26 24 23 22 23 24 EE 6.9 6.2 5.7 5.0 6.7 6.7 6.1 6.4 6.3 4.7 3.7 4.0 4.1 FI 31 30 12 12 12 14 11 15 13 14 12 12 14 DE 103 84 80 78 75 73 63 71 68 65 66 62 62 LV 26 29 27 32 35 21 21 17 17 18 16 16 16 LT 27 26 27 29 26 26 28 26 27 26 26 24 24 PL 322 291 282 295 286 287 276 298 293 307 286 282 290 RU 1410 1410 1410 1410 1410 1410 1410 1410 1410 1410 1410 1410 1410 SE 40 41 42 41 37 37 34 43 38 31 30 28 28 AL 24 32 30 25 28 30 32 33 35 36 37 39 40 AM 46 46 46 46 46 45 45 45 45 46 46 46 46 AT 37 37 38 37 36 36 33 36 33 34 38 31 33 AZ 0.280 0.394 0.984 1.2 30 35 194 212 232 293 255 217 351 BY 28 25 24 27 27 34 37 36 36 34 33 36 36 BE 62 63 60 59 58 70 52 52 43 49 42 34 36 BA 61 59 57 56 54 52 50 48 46 44 42 41 39 BG 113 123 110 147 90 74 46 43 51 57 60 50 50 HR 44 43 45 41 39 36 37 32 29 28 25 21 21 CY 1.0 0.515 0.517 0.505 0.535 0.526 0.485 0.468 0.446 0.433 0.556 0.360 0.395 CZ 60 60 56 59 60 52 35 38 30 30 30 31 26 FR 277 357 236 163 161 147 130 140 132 118 122 117 114 GE 0.297 0.297 0.297 0.297 0.297 0.307 0.317 0.343 0.373 0.405 17 17 15 GR 207 183 159 135 111 87 63 40 40 40 40 40 40 HU 66 62 60 61 57 53 73 78 86 89 83 73 81 IS 2.9 2.2 1.6 1.7 1.7 2.4 2.2 2.1 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.5 1.4 IE 50 42 38 38 31 33 33 31 29 28 29 27 27 IT 313 287 327 349 389 396 311 309 268 287 282 269 280 KZ 329 318 307 296 285 274 263 252 241 230 219 223 288 KY 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 LI 0.022 0.022 0.022 0.023 0.027 0.029 0.028 0.028 0.028 0.028 0.024 0.022 0.022 LU 2.4 2.0 1.7 1.9 1.5 2.0 2.5 2.1 2.1 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.6 MT 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 0.971 1.0 12 4.5 0.026 MC 1.6 1.7 1.5 1.2 1.6 1.2 1.7 1.8 1.3 1.8 2.4 2.3 2.3 ME 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.9 2.6 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 NL 29 29 30 29 29 31 30 31 31 25 25 22 22 NO 27 29 21 22 22 20 20 24 22 21 21 17 17 PT 143 122 99 77 166 167 172 168 103 91 74 80 77 MD 9.4 9.2 9.8 8.6 9.0 8.9 6.3 5.6 6.4 7.0 6.6 12 12 RO 300 245 210 279 210 222 183 203 212 220 191 179 180 RUA 375 375 375 375 375 375 375 375 375 375 375 375 375 RS 46 54 50 52 53 50 53 52 52 47 43 43 51 SK 57 59 57 54 50 45 32 45 43 46 44 49 49 SI 13 13 14 14 14 14 15 16 16 15 16 14 14 ES 165 152 150 150 171 166 143 151 154 152 153 158 163 CH 34 33 33 32 29 29 27 28 24 24 24 20 21 TJ 31 32 32 33 34 35 35 36 37 38 39 39 40 MK 16 16 15 16 15 16 17 18 18 17 13 16 14 TR 832 772 712 652 652 652 652 652 652 652 652 652 652 TM 34 34 35 35 35 36 36 37 37 38 38 39 39 UA 752 718 684 650 617 583 549 515 481 447 413 379 345 GB 285 297 262 235 218 226 207 228 205 208 210 205 211 UZ 127 129 130 132 134 136 138 142 146 148 151 153 156


133

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

90 93 96 99 02 05 08 11

Years

Em

iss

ion

, g

TE

Q/y

Figure 7.24. Time-series of annual PCDD/F emissions of HELCOM countries for 1990-2015 based on

officially reported emission data, g TEQ/year.


134

7.2 Annual total deposition of PCDD/F

Figure 7.25. Annual total deposition fluxes of PCDD/Fs over the Baltic Sea region for 2015 calculated on

the basis of emission scenario, ng TEQ/m2/y.

7.3 Monthly total deposition of PCDD/Fs

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

De

po

sit

ion

, g

TE

Q/m

on

th

Figure 7.26. Monthly total deposition of PCDD/Fs over the Baltic Sea for 2015 calculated on the basis of

emission scenario, g TEQ/month.


135

Table 7.3. Monthly total deposition of PCDD/Fs over the Baltic Sea for 2015 calculated on the basis of

emission scenario, g TEQ/month.

Month PCDD/F deposition (Emission Scenario)

Jan 24.3

Feb 15.6

Mar 11.3

Apr 7.5

May 10.3

Jun 12.5

Jul 16.8

Aug 14.5

Sep 16.8

Oct 11.1

Nov 15.8

Dec 17.8


136

7.4 Source allocation of PCDD/F deposition

0

5

10

15

20

25

RU PL DK SE GB FI LV DE UA LT

De

po

sit

ion

, g

TE

Q/y

ear

.

Figure 7.27. Top ten countries with the highest contribution to annual total deposition of PCDD/Fs over

the Baltic Sea for 2015 calculated on the basis of emission scenario, g TEQ/y. Green bars indicate non-

HELCOM countries.

21

(12%)20

(12%)

11

(6%) 10

(6%)

5.6

(3%)4.8

(3%) 3.4

(2.0%)3.0

(1.7%) 1.8

(1.0%)

0

5

10

15

20

25

RU PL DK SE FI LV DE LT EE

Dep

osit

ion

, g

TE

Q/y

ear

Figure 7.28. Contributions (in g TEQ/y and in %) of HELCOM countries to annual total PCDD/F

deposition to the Baltic Sea for 2015 calculated on the basis of emission scenario.

HELCOM countries contributed 47% to total PCDD/F deposition over the Baltic Sea in 2015.

Contribution of other EMEP countries accounted for 15%. Significant contribution was made by

other emission sources, in particular, non-EMEP emissions sources and re-emission of PCDD/Fs

(38%).


137

Table 7.4. Two most significant contributors to annual total deposition of PCDD/Fs to the nine Baltic Sea

sub-basins for 2015.

Sub-basin Country (1) % Country (2) % *, %

ARC RU 10 SE 10 41

BOB FI 22 SE 17 30

BOS RU 12 SE 12 35

BAP PL 20 RU 7 40

GUF RU 48 EE 5 24

GUR LV 21 PL 10 39

KAT DK 23 SE 6 51

SOU DK 22 SE 11 51

WEB DK 22 GB 5 53

BAS RU 12 PL 12 39

* - contribution of re-emission and non-EMEP emission sources.

7.5 Comparison of model results with measurements

PCDD/Fs are not regularly measured by the EMEP monitoring network. Evaluation of modelling

results on PCDD/Fs against measurements was performed in framework of the studies of EMEP

region pollution by dioxins and furans (Shatalov et al., 2012; Gusev et al., 2013).

For this purpose available measurements made by various national and international campaigns

reported in literature were used. It was found that the agreement between measured total

concentrations of 17 toxic PCDD/F congeners and model estimates using emission scenario of

dioxins and furans was within a factor of two for more than 50% of monitoring sites at

background locations.

More detailed information on the comparison of model estimates and observed PCDD/F

concentrations can be found in the EMEP Status Reports (Shatalov et al., 2012; Gusev et al.,

2013).


138

7.6 Concluding remarks

Emissions of PCDD/Fs from HELCOM countries have decreased by 31% in the period

1990-2015. Emissions in 2015 did not change significantly comparing to 2014.

Annual PCDD/F deposition to the Baltic Sea has decreased from 1990 to 2015 by 67%.

Level of PCDD/F deposition in 2015 has declined by 22% comparing to 2014.

The contribution of anthropogenic sources of HELCOM countries to total PCDD/F

deposition over the Baltic Sea was estimated to approximately 47%. Other EMEP

countries contributed about 15%. Substantial contribution was made by other sources

including re-emission and global emissions (38%).

The most significant contribution to dioxins and furans deposition over the Baltic Sea in

2015 was made by Russia (12%) and Poland (12%).

7. atmospheric supply of pcdd/fs to the baltic sea in 2015 · atmospheric supply of pcdd/fs to the...

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