5th session of the unece s group of experts on gas...the 5th session of the unece group of experts...
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OAPEC
The Growing Significance of Natural Gas in the Arab Energy Sector & Its Contribution to Sustainable Energy Future
5th Session of the UNECE’s Group
of Experts on Gas
Organization of Arab Petroleum
Exporting Countries
United Nations Economic Commission
for Europe
Gas Industries Expert
OAPEC
The 5th session of the UNECE Group of Experts on GasUnited Nations, Geneva, 21-23 March 20182
Agenda
Development of Upstream Gas Sector
Significance of Gas in the Arab Energy Sector
Contribution of Gas to Sustainable Energy Objectives
Gas and Renewables: Current Activities and Plans
The 5th session of the UNECE Group of Experts on GasUnited Nations, Geneva, 21-23 March 20183
Gas Reserves in the Arab Countries
01Development of Gas Reserves in the Arab Countries (1990-2017)
Item#1
* Estimated, Unit: Trillion Cubic Meters (TCM)
Source: OAPEC
Total increase in the remaining gas reserves116%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1990 1995 2000 2017*
25.3
31.1
36.9
54.8
02Distribution of World’s TotalProven Gas Reserves, 2017
Source: O & G Journal, OAPEC
North America
M.EAfrica
Europe/Eurasia
Asia Pacific
8%
33%
40.5%
5.7%
8.9%
SouthAmerica
4%
11.1 tcm
15.8 tcm
79.8 tcm17.5 tcm
8 tcm
65 tcm
The 5th session of the UNECE Group of Experts on GasUnited Nations, Geneva, 21-23 March 20184
Gas Production in the Arab Countries
01Development of Marketed Production in the Arab Countries, 1990-2016
Unit: Billion Cubic Meters (BCM)
Share of global gas production
Item#1
ANNUAL GROWTH RATETOTAL GAS PRODUCTION IN
2016
This accounts for 16% of
the global production
Gas production grew about
four times in 1990-2016
Compensation ratio of the cumulative gross gas
production!
143168
235
288
385
489
569 576
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 20160
10
20
30
40
50
60
1990 2016
Reserves @ 2016
Reserves @ 1990
25.3 54.3
Gross production
10.9 39.9
Unit: Trillion Cubic Meters (TCM)
Added reserves
The 5th session of the UNECE Group of Experts on GasUnited Nations, Geneva, 21-23 March 20185
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Mill
ion T
OE
Gas
Oil
Renewables
Coal
01Development of Primary Energy Demand
in the Arab Countries, 1990-2016
Developmemt of Gas Consumption, 1990-2016
PRIMARY ENERY MIX IN THE ARAB REGION
- It is dominated by fossil fuels ~ 99%
- Total primary energy grew at an annual
growth rate of 4.1%!
Gas, 51%
Oil, 47.5%
Item#2
Source: OAPEC
ANNUAL GROWTH RATETOTAL GAS
CONSUMPTION IN 2016
accounts for > 11% of
the global gas demand
Gas consumption grew ~
four times in 1990-2016
Unit: Billion Cubic Meters (BCM)
Share of global gas consumption
02Development of Gas Consumption inthe Arab Countries , 1990-2016
110
140
168
203
255
318
380
407
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2016
The 5th session of the UNECE Group of Experts on GasUnited Nations, Geneva, 21-23 March 20186
Distribution of Gas Consumption per Sector
01Share of Gas Consumption per
Sector in the Arab Countries, 2016
Item#2
Source: OAPEC
Electricity Sector,
52%
Energy Sector,
11%
Industry , 34%
Residential , 3%
Others, 1%
02Gas Usage in Industry Sector inthe Arab Countries, 2016
70%
30%
INDUSTRY
Oil 69%
Gas 31%
FEEDSTOCK FOR PETROCHEMICALS
Non-Energy Use
Coal, 2%
Oil , 29%
Gas , 56%
Electricity, 13%
MAIN ENERGY SOURCE IN INDUSTRY
Energy Source
The 5th session of the UNECE Group of Experts on GasUnited Nations, Geneva, 21-23 March 2018
Development of Electricity Generation, TWHElectricity Generation Mix per Country, 2016
Item#3 Contribution of Gas to Sustainable Energy : Tracking Progress in Power Sector
Gas Power Plants
CCGT Plants
Renewable
Diesel
Steam Power Plants
TOTAL INSTALED CAPACITY IN 2016: 279 GW
98 GW
86 GW
14 GW
7 GW
73 GW
31%
35%
26%
5%
3%
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1990 2000 2005 2010 2014 2016
Oil Oil Oil Oil Oil Oil
Gas
GasGas
Gas
Gas Gas
Ren
Ren
Ren
Ren
RenRen
Ele
ctri
city
Gen
erati
on
, T
WH
Ren
Coal
Gas
Oil
Renewables have a share 5% of installed capacity & 3% of generated electricity.
Gas turbines and CCGT represent 60% of the total installed capacities
Modernization and replacement of less efficient plants are still ongoing
The 5th session of the UNECE Group of Experts on GasUnited Nations, Geneva, 21-23 March 2018
Contribution of Gas to Sustainable Energy : Tracking Progress in Power SectorItem#3
48%51%
61%64% 65%
27%
28%
29%
30%
31%
32%
33%
34%
35%
36%
37%
35%
50%
65%
1990 2000 2005 2010 2016
Gas Share% in Power Mix Thermal effciency
The impact of gas usage in power sector on thermal efficiency
1990
2016Source: Data compiled from WB, WEO 2017, Global Tracking
Framework Report 2017
Access Rate Access to Electricity, % of Arab Population
8
The 5th session of the UNECE Group of Experts on GasUnited Nations, Geneva, 21-23 March 20189
Contribution of Gas to Sustainbable Energy: Tracking Progress in Residential Sector
01Gas Penetration into the Residential Sector
in the Arab Countries, 1990-2015
GAS SHARE IN THE RESIDENTIAL SECTOR IN 2016
While wastes share declined from
30% to 19% during (1990-2015)
Unit: kilo tonnne oil equivalent (ktoe)
Access Rate to Clean Fuels and Technologies for Cooking, % of Arab Population
2000
2014
Source: WHO, updated 6th of April, 2016
Item#3
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
19902000
20052010
2015
Gas Gas Gas Gas Gas
Bio
Fuels/Wastes
Tota
l co
nsu
mp
tion
, k
toe
Gas
Oil Products
Bio Fuels/Wastes
The 5th session of the UNECE Group of Experts on GasUnited Nations, Geneva, 21-23 March 201810
Gas and Renewables: Forecasted Demand on Electricity
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
20112013
2017F2022F
2027F
877
967 1,3
17
1,6
31
2,1
46
Ele
ctri
city
Gen
erati
on
, T
WH
Electricity generation will climb by almost “6% per year” through to 2027
65% is the total increase in electricity generation by 2027
Such growth will require annual capacity additions of about 20 GW
Gas and Renewable Sources will play the main role to meet this demand growth
01 Electricity Generation Outlook in the Arab Countries, TWH
*F: Forecast
Source: AUE, 2016
Item#4
The 5th session of the UNECE Group of Experts on GasUnited Nations, Geneva, 21-23 March 201811
Gas and Renewables: Current Activities and PlansItem#4
Gas development projects are
expected to come onstream in 2017-
2022 at total production capacity of
200 bcm/y (i.e. 35% of current gas
production)
NATURAL GAS
(22)
-Renewable energy projects under construction/planned.
RENEWABLE ENERGY
17 GW
130 GW-Total installed capacity of renewable energy sources according to announced targets
Planned/ongoing Gas Development Projects in the Arab Countries
Source:RECREE
GW
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Alg
eria
Bah
rain
Djib
ou
ti
Egyp
t
Iraq
Jord
an
Ku
wai
t
Leb
ano
n
Lib
ya
Mau
rit.
Mo
rocc
o
Qat
ar
KSA
Sud
an
Syri
a
Tun
isia
UA
E
Om
an
Yem
en
R.E Targets
under construction R.E projects
The 5th session of the UNECE Group of Experts on GasUnited Nations, Geneva, 21-23 March 201812
Final Remarks
The expansion of gas usage in power sector contributed to achieve an electrification rate of 88% and to increase the average thermal efficiency of power plants from 31% to 36%.
Renewable sources share is limited in the electricity generation mix, however, many Arab counties adopted ambitious plans to increase their share to attain sustainable energy future.
Gas penetration into the residential sector contributed to increase access rate to clean fuels for cooking to 82%.
Gas is the dominant fuel in the Arab primary energy mix (51%) and in the electricity generation mix (65%)
Electricity sector is the main consumer of natural gas (52%) followed by industry sector (34%) in which gas is consumed for energy and non-energy use (feedstock for chemicals/petrochemicals)
The 5th session of the UNECE Group of Experts on GasUnited Nations, Geneva, 21-23 March 201813
Questions?
67
8
121
2
5
9
10
11
4
3
Eng.Wael A.Moati
Gas Industries Expert,
OAPEC