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R W A N D A N A T I O N A L L A N D U S E A N D D E V E L O P M E N T M A S T E R P L A N - A P P E N D I X 2

4.2_AssessmentIndicatorsForPlanRevision_v2 18/31/2010


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Introduction ...........................................................................................................3

Alternative Red (worse/critical)...............................................................4Alternative Yellow (fair/acceptable).........................................................4Alternative Green (good/prosperous)......................................................4How is the Assessment for 2010 and how will it be 2015? .......................5

Demography and Population Change...............................................................8

Migration and Urbanization .................................................................................9

Environmental Health.........................................................................................12

Economic Trends................................................................................................18

Rwanda Vision 2020...........................................................................................19

Scenario Cost Assessment...............................................................................22

The Scenarios in a Nutshell ..............................................................................23

The GIS Model .....................................................................................................27

Methodology ...................................................................................................27Examples.........................................................................................................28

Next Step The Draft Final Plan.......................................................................36

General Findings and Recommendations ......................................................38


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Introduction

Planning of today is a continuous process. Once the plan has been approvedthe implementation process starts. Indicators are defined to measure objectivesfulfillment. The predictions and projections made in the plan must be evaluatedon regular basis and a review will be needed before the plan has lost its validdue to unforeseen development and other causes that were not able to foresee.

The Plan proposes a method in which the plan is being compared to the actualdevelopment. A number of key drivers have been defined and indicators havebeen arranged:

For each of the Key Drivers there has been an attempt to define indicators (ScenarioCharacteristics) for evaluation purposes. Important characteristics of these indicatorsare that they should be:

easily understood by all stakeholders;

related to the interests of one or more groups of stakeholders;

measurable using immediately available data at the national and/or district level

level;

clearly related to visions and goal at national (and district) level(s);

linked where possible to the three themes of economic, social and environmentalsustainability.

The indicators should be readily available, easily collected or estimated, and should

not normally require special surveys or studies. Indicators are not data, rather they aremodels simplifying a complex subject to a few numbers which can be easily graspedand understood by policy makers and the general public. Classic indicators include theunemployment rate or GDP growth, numbers which are powerful and recognizableindicators of the performance of the economy.


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Below is an example on what Indicators (Scenario Characteristics) are assignedto Migration and Urbanization:

The next step is to introduce a scoring system with five steps, where 1 indicates a poorvalue and 5 is the best:

The next step is to define the three scenarios;

Alternative Red (worse/critical)In this scenario we present the land-use scenario if development continues in anuncontrolled, ad.hoc/laissez-faire mode. It is a predictive scenario - extrapolation ofcurrents trends and processes and business-as-usual;

Alternative Yellow (fair/acceptable)In this scenario we present the land-use scenario if development continues in arelatively managed and controlled way. It is an exploratory scenario constructionalternative, plausible futures;

Alternative Green (good/prosperous)

In this scenario we present the land-use scenario if development continues in a verycontrolled way. It is a normative scenario describing desired futures and the eventsthat can lead to such futures.


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How is the Assessment for 2010 and how will it be 2015?After defining the indicators, an assessment can be made on how the situation

can be characterized today (2010):

Assessment for Year 2010

1 2 3 4 5

Governance and peoples trust

Demography and population change

Migration and urbanizationEnvironm. hazards

Economic trend

Key Drivers Sustainable Score

Likewise, when the Plan is due for revision, in 2015, the method can be used tomeasure the actual situation at that time. The idea is the that during monitoring,the characteristics of the key drivers can be analyzed, trends can be informed

about and measures can be taken to prevent an unwanted development.:

And, as an example, arrows can be inserted to indicate which direction the trend hasbeen moving from 1010 to 1015:

:

This chapters presents key drivers and indicators (Scenario Characteristics) of thethree scenarios and some examples on their implications in a land use perspective.There are mapped presentations attached to show the land use aspects of the three

scenarios. Not all the key drivers will have a visual and clear impact on land use.However, put together, the key drivers will inform about plausible future development.And the future is not going to move into either of the both extreme scenarios, mostprobably there will be a combination how key drivers will influence.


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Many of the key drivers have an impact on land use. Consequently the Plantries to identify them and see how they affect the land use. After disseminationby stakeholders and the general public during the Consultation Period in May,the draft Final Plan will present relevant (land use) directives, guidelines andplanning standards for national sector planning, district development planningand urban development planning.


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Governance and Peoples Trust

Governance and People's TrustScenario Sustainable ScoreKey

DriversIndicator/Characteristics 1 3 5 2010 1 2 3 4 5Progress ofdecentralizationpolicy

Lip-servicedecentralization. Allservice are controlledand managed by thecentral government.

0% of total revenuesgenerated andcontrolled by localgovernments.

>20% of all revenues aregenerated and controlledby local governments.

>40% of all revenuesare generated andcontrolled by local govt.

Rollout ofUmudugudu policyimplementationCANBE MAPPED BYDISTRICT

Poor or non-existentimplementation ofUmudugudupolicy.10% of the totalpopulation live invillages

Slow implementation ofUmudugudu policy.25%of the total population livein villages

Fair implementation ofUmudugudu policy.50%of the total populationlive in villages

45% of total populationare reported to live in U.villages. (70% in Vision2020)

Governanceand Peoplestrust

Institutionaltransparency andaccountability

Corruption increases:No auditing of publicspending, No publicinformation to govcontracts and tenders.No high officials beingdismissed due tocorruption causes.Rwanda is ranked as100 out of 180

countries in theinternational corruptionranking list

Widespread auditing butaccess to reports isdifficult. F-O-R requestprocess in place but notused routinely. Dismissalof corrupt officials is rare.Rwanda is ranked as 70out of 180 countries inthe internationalcorruption ranking list

Corrupt officials arerare and if founddismissed. Rwanda isranked as 50 out of180 countries in theinternational corruptionranking list

Rwanda is ranked as 69out of 180 countries inthe internationalcorruption ranking list


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Delivery of basicservices

Slow delivery of publicservices. Infantmortality rate is 10% ,

literacy rate is 65%

Acceptable delivery ofpublic services. Infantmortality rate is 3%,

literacy rate is 65%.

Fair delivery of publicservices. Infantmortality rate is >1%,

literacy rate is 100%.

Infant mortality rate is>6,7%, literacy rate is65%.

Participation indemocratic processCAN BE MAPPEDBY DISTRICT

People loose trust ingovernment. 50% ofregistered populationvote in the parliament.

People critical to trust ingovernment. 75% ofregistered populationvote in the parliament.

People have trust ingovernment. 100% ofregistered populationvote in the parliament.

95% of population vote inthe parliament.

Demography and Populat ion Change

Demography and Population Change

Scenario Sustainable ScoreKeyDrivers

Indicator/Characteristics 1 3 5 2010 1 2 3 4 5

Population growthCAN BE MAPPED BYDISTRICT

Total population year2020 will be14,073,000

Total population year2020 will be

Total population year2020 will be 12,974,000

Total population is about1024500 (2009)

Demographyand PopulationChange

Rollout of Familyplanning program(s)CAN BE MAPPED BYDISTRICT

Household size willexceed 6 persons.50 % of the districtCentre have a familyplanning clinic. 40 %of age groups 0-15

are malnourished.50% of males andfemales report thatthey are usingcondoms.

Household size willexceed 5 persons. 75 %of the district Centrehave a family planningclinic. 20 % of agegroups 0-15 are

malnourished. 75% ofmales and femalesreport that they areusing condoms.

Household size will bebelow 4,5 persons. 100 %of the district Centre havea family planning clinic.20 % of age groups 0-15are malnourished. 100%

of males and femalesreport that they are usingcondoms.

Household size is 4,6. Nofamily planning clinic atDistrict offices. 24% ofmales and 34% offemales report that theyare using condoms.


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Share of Single motherfamilies

20% 15% 10% In 1992, beforethe genocide, 13 percentof households were

headed by a womanwhile in 2005 nearly 21percentof households wereheaded by a woman.

Spread of HIVCANBE MAPPED BYDISTRICT

Uncontrolled spread,15% of thepopulation infected

3% of the populationinfected

Less than 2% of thepopulation infected

3% of the populationinfected, (Vision 2020predicted 11%)

Migration and Urbanization

Migration and Urbanization 2020

Scenario I Sustainable ScoreKeyDrivers

Indicator/Characteristics 1 3 5 2010 1 2 3 4 5Degree of Migration tourban areas,predominantly to Kigali.CAN BE MAPPED BYDISTRICT FORCOMPARATIVE

ANALYSIS

60% of the totalpopulation are livingin urban areas, 40%in Kigali City

45% of the totalpopulation are living inurban areas, 25% inKigali City

30% of the totalpopulation are living inurban areas, 10% inKigali City

??%(data not available)of the total population areliving in urban areas, 9%in Kigali City

Migration andurbanization

Degree of Informalsettlement CAN BEMAPPED BYDISTRICT FORCOMPARATIVE

ANALYSIS

20% of urbanpopulations haveservices and utilities.40% have accessto clean water.

60% of urbanpopulations haveservices and utilities.70% have access toclean water.

100% of urbanpopulation have servicesand utilities. 100% haveaccess to clean water.

More than 70% live ininformal settlements ofurban population and donot have services andutilities.


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Degree of Urbansprawl CAN BEMAPPED BY

DISTRICT FORCOMPARATIVE

ANALYSIS

80% of total built uparea beingunplanned. 6 District

Centre have anapproved UrbanDevelopment Plansby 2020 whichregulate suitableareas for urbanexpansion.

40% of total built uparea being unplanned.18 District Centre have

an approved UrbanDevelopment Plans by2020 which regulatesuitable areas for urbanexpansion.

5% of total built up areabeing unplanned. All (30)District Centre have an

approved UrbanDevelopment Plans by2020 which regulatesuitable areas for urbanexpansion.

About 80-90%% of totalbuilt up area beingunplanned. 4 District

Centre have an approvedMaster Plan which definesuitable areas for urbanexpansion.

Degree of Rural landfragmentation CAN BEMAPPED BYDISTRICT FORCOMPARATIVE

ANALYSIS

20% increase in theno. of parcels in ruralareas.

Minimum plot area 0.25ha. No change in the no.of parcels in rural areas

Minimum plot area 0.25ha. Decrease in the no. ofparcels in rural areas

Minimum plot area ?? Ha(data not available). (Pilotareas)

Progress of LandRegistration ProjectCAN BE MAPPED BYDISTRICT FORCOMPARATIVE

ANALYSIS

About 4 millionparcels of landparcels of landsurveyed by 2020 ofwhich 50% disputes

have been resolved,

About 7.9 million parcelsof land parcels of landsurveyed by 2020.Dispute and adjudicationmeasures successful.

About 7.9 million parcelsof land parcels of landsurveyed by 2013.Dispute and adjudicationmeasures successful.

?? (Data not available)Land parcels have beensurveyed till 2010.Dispute and adjudicationmeasures successful.

(Pilot areas)


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Environmental Health

Environmental HealthScenario Sustainable ScoreKey

DriversIndicator/Characteristics 1 3 5 2010 1 2 3 4 5

EnvironmentalHealth

Status of landdegradation anddeforestation. Bio-diversityprotection.CAN

BE MAPPED BYDISTRICT

No natural forestsor wetlands existoutside protectedareas. Nationalparks have been

reduced by 20%.All water bodiesare undrinkableand heavilypolluted.Environmentallaws have nocommunitysupport. Bufferzones do notsurround allprotected areas,do not provide anyconservationvalue. >200,000people living within3km of Protectedareas. Allprotected areasare infested withinvasive species.

>70% of natural habitatoutside protected areas in2010 still exist. Allprotected areassurrounded by buffer

zones,


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Status of landdegradation andagricultural

suitability. CANBE MAPPED(DISTRICT CASESTUDY GASABO)

Farmers relyheavily onfertilizers to retain

soil fertility. Lessthan 25% of slopes>250 are cultivatedwithout terraces.Widespreadcultivation ofslopes >500. >70%of the national landsurface suffersfrom erosion.

Soil conservationtechniques are applied toall slopes >13 deg. >50%

land with slopes >250

areterraced. No slopes >500are cultivated. 13 deg

including terracing and alleycropping. No land withslopes > 25 deg iscultivated with annualcrops. All slopes >50 Degare forested or left fallow.

Private cardependencyversus publictransportation.Non-motorizedtransportopportunity.

Car/1000 ratio islike Africa onaverage 20%(280,000Totalprivate cars inRwanda). Publictransport is limitedto District Centre.Public transport isused by less than20% of thepopulation.

Car/1000 ratio is 5 (About65,000 private cars inRwanda). Public transportis used by >40% of thepopulation as main modeof transport. All DistrictCentre and sector Centreare linked by publictransport services.

Car/1000 ratio is 2,(24,000) private cars inRwanda) Public transport isthe main mode transport, allDistrict Centre areconnected by bus. BRTwith dedicated lanes in allmajor urban Centre. Roadsin all District Centre haveallocated bicycle lanes.

About 4000 private cars inRwanda 20?? Wikipedia2010 says 2 cars/1000 willresult in about 20,000 cars

Adaptation toclimate change

>80% of all foodproduced is fromrain fed agriculture.>30% ofpopulation live inflood prone areas.>50% provided byHydro generation.


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Degree ofhazardouslocation of built up

areasCAN BEMAPPED BYDISTRICT(NATIONAL +DISTRICT CASESTUDY GASABO)See below

>30% ofpopulation living onslopes >200. >30%

living in floodprone areas. 20 Deg, 50% of atrisk building stock isresistant to earthquakes.

Management ofWaste

No landfills meetinternational

standards. Noseparation oforganic waste.40% of

waste recycled, >70% ofall toxic waste isseparated but storagedoes not meetinternational standards,

>70% of all waste recycled,100% of all organic waste

used for energy &/oragriculture. All DistrictCentre have a municipallandfill that meetsinternational standards. Alltoxic waste is treated andstored.

In the following pages there are mapped illustrations of the current situation on some of the Environmental Health Indicators:


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Economic Trends

Economic TrendsScenario Sustainable ScoreKey

DriversIndicator/Characteristics 1 3 5 2010 1 2 3 4 5Incentives/entrepreneurship/thriftiness amonginvestors andentrepreneurs. .

The Small and MediumBusiness will fallsbelow the pace of thepopulation growth

The Small and MediumBusiness will grow atthe same pace aspopulation growth

The Small and MediumBusiness will raiseabove the pace of thepopulation growth

GDP compared to2008

7% 8,50% 9,60%8,50%

Rollout of East AfricanCommunitycooperation

Common currency to allmember fails. Sametedious process at theborder crossings by2015 as today. Flow oftrade at the bordersame as today.

Common currency to allmember states by 2020.Flow of trade at theborder 25% higher thantoday.

Common currency to allmember states by 2012.Quick and efficient one-stop-shop at the bordercrossings by 2015. Flowof trade at the border50% higher than today.

Rollout ofCommonwealthmembershipcooperation

Commonwealth Head ofState Meeting held inRwanda by 2015.



Economictrend

Degree of on foreignaid dependency

50% of the nationalbudget




Global economicsituation impact onRwanda (economy)

Coffee price and export.Tea price and export.Number of internationaltourists.


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Level of internationalinvestment to Rwanda

No funds available forbuilding of railway. Nofunds available to build

new airport.

Funds committed tobuilt railway. to beready 2020. Funds

committed to built newairport to be ready2020.

Funds committed tobuilt railway. to beready 2014. Funds

committed to built newairport to be ready2014.

No funds available

Rwanda Vision 2020

The official Rwanda Vision is also using indicators in combination with targets of which many are reflected in the Plans Key Drivers:

Rwanda Vision 2020 (from 2002)

Indicators SituationIn 2000

Target in2010

Target in2020

Inter-nationallevel

1. Rwandan population 7,700,000 10,200,000 13,000,000

2. Literacy level 48 80 100 100

3. Life expectancy (years) 49 50 55

4. Women fertility rate 6 5,5 4,5

5. Infant mortality rate (0/00) 107 80 50

6. Maternal mortality rate for 100000 live births 1070 600 200

7. Child Malnutrition (Insufficiency in %) 30 20 10

8. Population Growth rate (%) 2,9 2,3 2,2


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9. Net primary school enrolment (%) 72 100 100 100

10. Gross primary school enrolment (%) 100 100

11. Secondary school transitional rate (%) 42 60 80

12. Gross Secondary school enrolment (%) 7 40 60

13. Rate of qualification of teachers (%) 20 100 100 100

14. Professional and technical training Centre 50 106

15. The rate of admission in tertiary education(0/00) 1 4 6

16. Gender equality in tertiary education (F %) 30 40 50 50

17. Gender equality in decision-making positions(% of females) 10 30 40

18. HIV/AIDS prevalence rate (%) 13 11 8 0

19. Malaria -related mortality (%) 51 30 25

20. Doctors per 100,000 inhabitants 1,5 5 10 10

21. Population in a good hygienic condition (%) 20 40 60

22. Nurses per 100,000 inhabitants 16 18 20 20

23. Laboratory technicians per 100,000 inhabitants 2 5 5

24. Poverty (%< 1 US $/day) 60,4 40 30

25. Average GDP growth rate (%) 6,2 8 8


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26. Growth rate of the agricultural sector (%) 9 8 6

27. Growth rate of the industry sector (%) 7 9 12

28. Growth rate of the service sector (%) 7 9 11

29. Ginni Coefficient (income disparity) 0,454 0,4 0,35

30. Growth national savings (% of GDP) 1 4 6

31. Growth national investment (% of GDP) 18 23 30 30

32. GDP per capita in US $ 220 400 900

33. Urban population (%) 10 20 30

34. Agricultural population (%) 90 75 50

35. Modernized agricultural land (%) 3 20 50

36. Use of fertilizers (Kg/ha/year) 0,5 8 15

37. Financial credits to the agricultural sector (%) 1 15 20

38. Access to clear water (%) 52 80 100 100

39. Agricultural production (kcal/day/person (%needs) 1612 2 000 2 200

40. Availability of proteins/person/day (% of needs) 35 55 65 70

41. Road network (km/km2) 0,54 0,56 0,6

42. Annual electricity consumption(kWh/inhabitants) 30 60 100


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43. Access to electric energy (% of population.) 2 25 35

44. Land portion against soil erosion (%) 20 80 90

45. Level of reforestation (ha)

46. Wood energy in t he national energyconsumption (%) 94 50 50

47. Non-agricultural jobs 200 500 1,400,000

Initially, the costs for a Green Scenario realization will be high. Major infrastructureinvestments such as the building of the railway from Dar via Isaka to Kigali will needmajor loan funding (estimations of 4,5 to 2,5 billion dollars has been reported in themedia). Likewise, other investments like the development of a new airport outside

Kigali, upgrading of roads, introduction of green district centre, distribution ofelectricity through a nationwide grid, etc. will be significant.

However, greater investments in aGreen scenario will result in a more sustainablesociety in the long term as the benefits in cost and time reduction will implyfavorable gains in both environment and transport costs.

A freight train will need about 12 hours to complete the 1,400 km journey from thecoast considerably quicker than the two-week truck journey on bad roads withmany roadblocks at present.

Taking the railway as an example the following positive effects will be reached:

Scenario Cost Assessment


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At the moment, transport accounts for 40 % of the cost of the imported goods. Arailway connection should cut that to a fifth. Average transport cost in developedcountries accounts for about 9% and about 17% for the least developed countries.

Neighboring land locked countries (RDC and Burundi) which have even longerdistances to ports will also benefit from a railway connection from the Kigali to theSea for important trade routes for ores such as tin and tungsten.

History shows that a railway spurs development along its path opening up businessand trade opportunities. It can also facilitate exploitation of untapped naturalresources which provide the critical level of tonnage to justify the railway.

The environmental effects will also be of importance replacing oil-consuming roadfreight with energy-optimized a more mode of long distances transport.

In aRed Scenario, none of the important infrastructure investments will be realizedwithin the next 10 years and will of not any investment capital. In economic terms itis a saving in short term but the long term effect will be negative. The cost fortransport of goods for landlocked Rwanda will increase as oil becomes scarce, theincreased reliance on trucks for transportation will accelerate the cost roadmaintenance, lead to increased levels of air pollution in al major urban areas.

The Scenarios in a Nutshell

In the following maps there is an attempt to visualize the consequences of the threeScenarios by some statements. Basically, it is an extract and simplification of theKey Drivers and Indicators.


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The GIS Model

8/31/2010

MethodologySpatial Multicriteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) is a proven method for land-useplanning purposes. MCDA can be described as a process that transforms andcombines geographic data and value judgments (the decision makers preferences)to obtain information for decision making. In the planning work the focus has beento develop a nation wide GIS model, containing all land-uses accommodated inthree main land-use categories: urban, agriculture and environment.

MCDA are often integrated in Spatial Decision Support Systems (SDSS). An SDSSis an application that uses analytical methods and models to define alternatives, it isable to analyze their impact, and interpret and select the best option forimplementation. Three main stages in the process of land-use planning: (1) anevaluation of land suitability for each land-use type; (2) the optimization of thedifferent land-use areas; (3) the spatial allocation of land-uses.

The GIS model is largely based on the Land-Use Conflict Identification Strategy

(LUCIS) model. The LUCIS model does not have a specific focus on a certain typeof land-use planning, and is therefore particularly suitable for regional andcountrywide planning. It consists of three general models, describing the suitabilityof urban, agriculture, and environment components. Finally, these three land-usesare combined to identify conflicts.. Many of the goals, objectives, and sub-objectives that described the earlier mentioned land-use categories were adoptedfrom the original model. However, a significant number of them were dropped, andnew were created to suit the Rwandan situation.

Figure: The five main steps of the LUCIS model

The Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) is used as weighting method. ESRIsArcGIS Model Builder was used to give the model shape in the GIS. The ModelBuilder in ESRIs ArcGIS 9.2 was used to create the models for all individual

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The NLCs Orthophotos proved to be useful when acting as reference for thesuitability and preference maps. Despite all datasets were not available from sectorauthorities; the GIS model was executed to simplify the understanding.

Due to the graphic programming environment, the user does not needprogramming skills in order to create the models. Other major advantages are thatthey are easy to modify and share with other users. Firstly, suitability maps werecreated of all elements in the model. The suitability maps were then transformed

into preference maps by weighting them. In the next step the preference mapswere collapsed in three classes: low, medium and high preference. Finally, thepreference maps of the three land-use categories were combined, in order tovisualize conflict areas.

ExamplesIn the following pages examples are presented on the result of the modeling atnational level.

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goals and objectives. The Model Builder can be seen as a graphic programmingenvironment within ArcGIS. All tools from the toolbox, which is a large set of geo-processing tools, can be used to create complex geographical analysis. Creating

complex models here has the advantage that analysis, which has to be done onregular basis, does not take much time once they are anchored in a model.

Furthermore, there are some examples applied at District level which arerecommended to be found in the proposed concept for local level planning theIntegrated District Development Plan, see Chapter Housing and Urbanization:


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Next Step The Draft Final Plan

Depending on the reactions by the stakeholders and general public during theConsultation Period, the Part II documentation will be revised and condensed into aFinal Plan. The Final Plan will present ONEland use development proposal for theplanning horizon of 2020. In order implement the proposed land use the Final Planwill also include the following:

Mandatory regulations for land use that national sector authori ties and localgovernment must pay respect to to. For example, in the Plan there will be a map

showing Areas and Nodes of National Interest for Agriculture Production. It meansthat agriculture land use has the highest priority in the areas shown on the map andother land uses have to respect that. It also implies that the national sector plansand District Development Plans must show that they have observed the regulationand the reasons behind. Furthermore, the respective authorities must not proposeanything in their plans that will be in conflict with the national interest..

Below is an example how an Area of National Interest can be shown in An

(Integrated) District Development Plan:

Guidelines for Sustainable Land Use Development. Below are examples onhow these guiding principles could look like are found in the Baseline Studies. Thepurpose is to inspire and guide sector planning and land use planning at District

and urban levels:



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(Land use) Planning Standards. The standards are recommendation on spatialimplications on distribution of public services and utilities, for example therecommended distance between home and the nearest health center. The purpose

of these standards, which have been agreed on by the custodian sector authority,are that they can be used to identify inequalities of public services and utilities incomparative analyses and to make relevant proposals to harmonize social,economic and environmental factors.

It can also be geometric standards for example the right of way for a new nationalroad, which should be taken into consideration in land use plans, see below:

There are more examples on proposed land use planning standards found in theBaseline studies.

General Findings and Recommendations

In a land use context for the planning horizon till 2020 some general findings andrecommendations are as follows:

Major environmentally friendly infrastructure and energy investments areneeded in the near future to transform the land locked Rwanda into a

society ready to battle with an alarming global climate change;

A modern concept for (Integrated) District Development Planning has tobe introduced to harmonize with the National Plan and to match futuredemands for (equitable) service provision, (decentralized) economicdevelopment and (sustainable) environmental health realized throughdecentralized and participatory decision-making;

Capacity strengthening is needed at District level to give the local

government a chance to coop with the increasing responsibility forsustained land use development ;

The Umudugudu Policy needs an urban sister to prevent acceleratedmigration to existing urban areas, predominately Kigali City. ThisUmujyjiPolicy aims to counteract unplanned habitation and the increaseof informal settlements with poor services and unhealthy conditions.Rwanda is still a low urbanized country and has a unique opportunity to

set the standards for sustainable urban development that most Africancountries fail to do at the moment. The next ten years will be crucial ifRwanda will be a success story in this respect or join the other that hasflopped. Likewise, the urban planning should now take advantage ofavailable spatial data in combination with modern analysis and

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presentation tools, strengthen the participatory process at localgovernment level to make it possible to design a modular alternative ofsustainable urban development ;

Efforts to reform the agriculture sector to move from subsistence to cashcrop farming need to be supported by trade and economic incentives forthe rural population;

In the situation analyses made during the Baseline preparation, it wasfound that there occasionally is a lack of coordination and cooperationbetween sector authorities which causes land use conflicts. Hopefully, thePlan will make these constraints more transparent and encourage acorporate will among the government stakeholders so that one land usehas priority over others for a specific area in the future;

The national sector authorities sometimes lack methods and indicators tosteer resources to achieve equitable (spatial) distribution of services andutilities. Use of modern technology such as GIS for spatial optimization istherefore recommended;

It is recommended that the new NLC Portfolio of nationwide highresolution orthophotos and base maps in combination with modernanalysis tools such as GIS and RS, should be used to identify andprevent environmental degradation by all concerned stakeholders both atcentral an local government level.

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