4/11/2010

TONIGHT'S AGENDA

Portfolio Update ARD M&A Special Situation Goldman Sachs Re-Evaluation Financial Elevator Pitches

PORTFOLIO UPDATEAnthony Vitiello

RECENT TRANSACTIONS

Sell 900 Shares of USG @ $17.57 on 3/30/2010 Buy 135 Shares of EQIX @ 97.32 on 3/30/2010

ALL-STARS

13.76%

6.33%

5.74%

5.99%

5.71%

DOGS

2.74%

0.93%

0.35%

0.10%

0.49%

LARGEST HOLDINGS

Winn Dixie Stores:5.76%

jetBlue Corporation:4.91%

Equinix4.63%

Waters Corporation4.65%

KBR Inc.4.64%

SELL ARENA RESOURCES

It was recently announced that Arena Resources, a relatively new portfolio position, will be acquired by Sandridge Energy (SD) for roughly $40 per share. We are getting paid largely in stock (only $2.50

per share in cash) and we do not want to receive a large position in SD (risky balance sheet, natural gas-heavy e&p with inherent execution risk integrating ARD)

Instead of waiting for the deal’s completion and receiving Sandridge stock, we should sell ARD and allocate the capital into a new energy stock.

BUY CONOCOPHILLIPS

Restructuring plan will drive shareholder returns in coming years

Sell-side hates uncertainty room for analyst upgrades

Above-average dividend yield pays us to wait until market rewards stock for successful restructuring (12-18 months)

RESTRUCTURING

Management is focused on improving returns on capital Selling ½ its position in Lukoil

Generate $5 billion in cash COP was only receiving a cash dividend (insufficient

return on capital) Realize significant capital gains (paid $38 per share,

Lukoil stock now at $56) $10 billion in asset sales

These assets only generated $250 million in net income during 2009 will help improve returns on capital

RESTRUCTURING (CONT.)

Management is working to improve the balance sheet with operating cash flows and cash generated by asset sales (previous slide) $5-8 billion to reduce debt during 2010/2011

From $28.5 billion in debt to $20.5-$23.5 billion in debt Recently announced $5 billion in share

repurchases Reduce shares outstanding by 1-2% per quarter

through 2011)

RESTRUCTURING SHOULD DRIVE THE STOCK HIGHER By reducing interest

payments & shares outstanding and divesting non-core assets, management will be able to continue increasing the percentage of cash flows distributed as dividends Last five years: ~27% 2010/2011: 50%+ After the completion of the

restructuring: ~40% As the chart to right

demonstrates, investors in large oil companies reward dividend-friendly management teams.

ROOM FOR UPGRADES

Wall Street likes ‘predictability’ – the restructuring makes earnings/cash flow forecasts and estimates quite difficult.

The successful execution of its restructuring plan will compel analysts to upgrade COP. Currently, 12 of 18 firms covering the stock rate it a hold

(10) or sell (2) “We think it might be premature to venture into the

stock and would opt to stay on the sidelines until we see more concrete evidence of an improving return trend.” – Barclays (Neutral)

“While our view of ConocoPhillips has directionally brightened, there is no change to our Neutral rating.” – GS

RETURN POTENTIAL

The successful completion of the restructuring (18-24 months) should push the stock up 20-40%, due to improving returns on capital, multiple expansion, and fewer shares outstanding.

Management recently announced a 10% increase in the dividend, now at $2.20 per share or 4.2% In other words, we—as shareholders—are

compensated (in cash) to wait for the restructuring plans to materialize, the analyst community to jump on-board, etc.

S&P Yield: 1.79%; XOM, CVX, and OXY all between 1.50%-3.50%

GS

Purchase Date: 2/27/2007 Purchase Price: $209 (peak ~$250 in ‘07) Number of Shares: 35 Last Trade: $179.12 (-.21%) (Friday’s Close) Total Gain: -$1,045 (-14.3%) Portfolio Weight: $6,270

Smallest Position in Our Portfolio

GS - WHO ARE THEY?

Often considered the savviest bank on Wall Street (and highest paid)

Operate in over 30 countries with 42% of the staff from outside the “Americas” 200944% of revenues from outside “Americas”

Once the largest “pure investment bank” by NI, B/S, and Market Cap (prior to Sept. 2008) Sept. 2008 – became a “bank holding company”

GS - BUSINESS

Operates in 3 main business segments: Investment Banking Trading and Principal Investments Asset Management and Securities Services

1. INVESTMENT BANKING

2 Components:1. Financial Advisory –

- Mergers and Acquisitions advisory services- Financial Restructuring advisory services

2. Underwriting –- Equity and Debt underwriting

In 2009 Investment Banking represented 11% of their overall revenues

2. TRADING AND PRINCIPAL INVESTMENTS 3 Components:

1. Fixed Income, Currency, and Commodities (FICC) – - Consists of a lot of derivatives products and activities

ranging across commodities, currencies, and credit- Also, mortgage related securities, loan products, and

other asset-backed instruments

2. Equities –- Investing in equity securities and derivatives, and

exchange-based market making activities (and even insurance activities)

- Also, securities, futures, options clearing services

3. Principal Investments – - Made in connection with “merchant banking activities”- Investment in shares of Industrial and Commercial Bank

of China Limited In 2009 represented 76% of their overall revenues.

3. ASSET MANAGEMENT AND SECURITIES SERVICES

2 Components:1. Asset Management –

- Investment Advisory services, financial planning, and investment products across all major asset classes and to institutional and individual investors

- Manage the merchant banking funds

2. Securities Services –- Prime Brokerage, Financing Services, Securities

Lending

In 2009 represented 13% of overall revenues

BANK HOLDING COMPANY

Now a combination of investment-banking operations with larger capital cushions that come with retail deposits.

Submit themselves to greater regulation (under supervision by the Fed) – e.g. higher capital requirements (less leverage)

“The high-risk, high return days may be in the past for this firm…” (Morningstar) Could be bad with 76% of revenues coming from

principal investments (proprietary trading) When economy picks back up, don’t expect GS

profits to return to pre-crisis levels

2009 2008

Total Assets 848,942 884,547

Total Liabilities 778,228 820,178

Total Equity 70,714 64,369

Debt/Assets 0.92 0.93

Debt/Equity 11.01 12.74

REGULATION

Volcker Rule: Put forth by Paul Volcker (former Fed Chairman

under Carter and Reagan) Now chairman of the “Economic Recovery Advisory

Board” under Obama Prevents commercial banks from owning or

investing in hedge funds, private equity, and limits the trading they do on their own account (“prop trading”) the key to Goldman’s Business Model (~10% of revenues)

Dodd Bill?: Goal: “Create a sound economic foundation to

grow jobs, protect consumers, rein in wall street, end too big to fail, prevent another financial crisis”

PERFORMANCE

For the Year Ended 2009: EPS of $22.13 vs $4.47 for Fiscal year 2008 Stock saw a total return of 101.9% Beat Quarterly earnings consensus every quarter Repurchased preferred Stock from the

Government, one of the first banks to do so Total return of $11.42B

GOING FORWARD Short-Term (Gains or Flat?):

Selling at about 9.5x estimated earnings and 1.4x projected year-end book value (fair multiples for short-term) Forbes – Goldman shrank its compensation by $10B (to about

36% revenue) which boosted ROE to 22.5%. If they maintain this level it could be good, if they boost compensation back to 40% Revenue range, stock could be flat.

Although facing pressure on trading portion of their business they are well-positioned in the investment banking field for the “comeback of M&A” (up 20% over 1Q 2009) – IB ~$5B in revenue (only 11%) Goldman Ranks 3rd in 2010 league tables for global M&A by

volume Lagging financials so far this year, so expect a continued

comeback, but no expectations for it reach pre-crisis levels Big Banks lowering leverage an average of 42% prior to

reporting it to the public over the past 5 quarters (WSJ). Although masking their risk levels, could still potentially boost

profits once again at Goldman Sachs, but don’t expect it to last.

GOING FORWARD Long-Term (conflicts of interest?):

“We facilitate client transactions with a diverse group of corporations, financial institutions, investment funds, governments and individuals through market making in, trading of and investing in fixed income and equity products, currencies, commodities and derivatives on these products. We also take proprietary positions on certain of these products.”

“Demanding unequal arrangements with hedge-fund firms, forcing them to post more cash collateral to offset risks on trades while putting up less on their own wagers. At the end of December this imbalance furnished Goldman Sachs with $110 billion, according to a filing. That’s money it can reinvest in higher-yielding assets.”

About a week ago Goldman sent out a letter to shareholders (8 pages, longest ever annual letter) defending its position that it did not take “short positions” to bet against their clients.

Yet they were one of the first banks to short the residential real estate market (MBS) claiming that they just used those short positions to “offset their long positions” – whether they did or not the possibility of it happening is not good.

FINANCIAL ELEVATOR PITCHES

GFI GROUP (GFIG)

What is an interdealer broker? Limited capital commitment Importance of employees, technology, and

relationships Used the crisis to add brokers from struggling

firms The stock should advance 100-150% as the

operating environment normalizes. Insiders agree – own 44% of shares outstanding

HOW TO THINK ABOUT THE STOCK

Brokerage

As the environment normalizes and brokers return to previous efficiency levels ($900k + in revenue), the brokerage business will earn $50-60 million, or 40 to 50 cents per share.

In a normal environment, the market values interdealer brokers at 20-30x earnings; making the brokerage worth $8-$15 per share

TECHNOLOGY GROWTH

• Because of its place as a middleman in many transactions, GFI has access to important data flow. The company’s growing software division sells market data and analytics products for building pricing models, developing trading strategies, and to manage, price, and revaluing derivative portfolios.

• Because the brokerage business is so undervalued by the market presently, we are getting this highly profitable, rapidly growing business for free at the current price.

EVR – WHAT DO THEY DO? Independent Boutique Investment Bank founded

in 1996 (went public in 2006) “Independent” = No commercial banking or

proprietary trading activities. Removed from the conflicts of interest often created in

large financial institutions with multiple products (a lot of what regulation is aimed at)

Specializes M&A Advisory, other financial services advisory, and asset management. 2 Segments: Advisory (e.g. M&A) and Investment

Management Offices in New York, San Francisco, Boston, D.C.,

Los Angeles, Houston, London, Mexico City, and Monterrey Large objective to grow globally

MERGERS AND ACQUISITIONS Thomson Reuters – 1Q 2010 value of global

mergers and acquisitions = $573.3B, a 20.5% increase of 1Q 2009 – the “comeback of M&A”

Ranked 11th in terms of M&A revenue Last year not even ranked, now 2.3% market share Advised restructurings of GM and CIT group, advised

Wyeth on $68B takeover of Pfizer, Inc., and advised Burlington Northern on its sale to Warren Buffet’s Berkshire Hathaway

Reported 4Q 2009 profit of $16.5M ($0.41/sh) on $109M of revenue (2008 = -$0.25/sh) $99.2M of that revenue due to M&A (87% total

revenues for ‘09 came from advisory services) and restructuring activity – a significant portion from restructuring, but…

“Restructuring likely to take a backseat to M&A in 2010…We are in the early stages of a classic 5-7 year M&A up cycle” – Roger Altman, founder and chairman of EVR

LOOKING AHEAD Conference call (4Q 2009): firm expected to receive its

underwriting license and license to trade equities in this quarter (2Q 2010).

Acquired Atalanta Sosnoff, an independent registered investment advisor. Ralph Schlosstein (co-founder of Blackrock and EVR CEO as of

May 2009) said: “should be immediately accretive to earnings” Acquired Neuberger Berman: “expected to establish a

broader presence in the United States and expand its reach across continental Europe and the Middle East.” Also, plans to expand into Brazil and Mexico as they continue to

broaden their global footprint Goldman Added EVR to “conviction buy list” As long as M&A volume continues to increase Evercore is

well-positioned to take a growing piece of the market share (already have as seen above) Moreover, with the underwriting license they will be able to offer

a wider range of advisory services, continuing to boost their market share.

REINSURANCE GROUP OF AMERICA

Life Reinsurance (#2 in US, #3 Worldwide) What is Life Reinsurance?

Customer is Primary “Cedent” Insurer Transfers Risk, Frees Up Capital

More Specialized, Niche Business $20 Trillion Life Insurance in Force in US $8.1 Trillion of Life Reinsurance in Force 5 Largest Reinsurers Have 71% of Market

HOW (RE-)INSURANCE WORKS

Companies Make Money (in theory): Premium Income Less Claims Expense

Life reinsurance spread mainly driven by mortality RGA has particular expertise in this area

Investment Income “Float” comes from the time delay between collecting

premiums and paying out claims Investment income is turning up after sub-par/poor

performances in 2007 and 2008

WHY BUY?

Favorable Industry Economics Primary Life Insurers Face Capital Constraints Reinsurance Consolidation = Pricing Power Stable Double-Digit ROE

Diversifies Financial Sector Exposure Inexpensive Stock

Midpoint EPS = $6.60 (8x Earnings) Over-Capitalized ($500 Million), 1x BV

EURONET WORLDWIDE

A global provider of electronic payment and transaction processing solutions for financial institutions, retailers, service providers and consumers

Operates in 3 Segments Electronic Financial Transactions (EFT) Prepaid (58%) Money Transfer (22%)

PAYMENTS = STABLE BUSINESS

International business has seen sluggish growth during recession, but transaction volume returns with global consumer ATM networks, Point of Sale solutions,

Credit/debit card prepaid & outsourcing, prepaid mobile

India, Germany, Czech Republic, Egypt, China, etc.

~80% revenues generated ex-US

VALUATION

Enterprise Value / EBITDA Multiple of 7x $929 mln + $256 mln cash - $320 mln l-t debt 2009 EBITDA @ $140 million .9x sales

Recent weakness in prepaid segment could signal a bottom as volumes return

Management has been paying down debt with FCF, creating a more nimble company

ANNOUNCEMENTS & HOUSEKEEPING

Market Game– Keep Trading!!! Tee Shirt Ideas– Email vitiella@bc.edu

We will be order very soon!