3rd nstws, vienna va, july 25-27 2007 research to operations in the joint center for satellite data...
TRANSCRIPT
3rd NSTWS, Vienna VA, July 25-27 2007
Research to Operations in theJoint Center for Satellite Data
Assimilation
Lars Peter Riishojgaard
Director, JCSDA
3rd NSTWS, Vienna VA, July 25-27 2007
Overview
• JCSDA; mission and partners
• Research to Operations
• Failure modes
• What next ?
3rd NSTWS, Vienna VA, July 25-27 2007
What is the JCSDA?
• An interagency organization set up by NASA (GSFC/GMAO), NOAA (NCEP/EMC, NESDIS/STAR, OAR/ESRL), and DoD (AFWA, NRL/Monterey)
• JCSDA Mission: … to accelerate and improve the quantitative use
of research and operational satellite data in weather, ocean, climate and environmental analysis and prediction models
3rd NSTWS, Vienna VA, July 25-27 2007
What does the Joint Center do?
• Primarily Numerical Weather Prediction on the global scale
– Numerical models run out to 7-10 days– Horizontal resolution ~50 km– Vertical resolution (in the atmospheric boundary
layer): hundreds of meters
3rd NSTWS, Vienna VA, July 25-27 2007
Why should you care about global NWP?
• Provides boundary conditions to regional/mesoscale models used for surface weather
• Data assimilation is a great technique for “data homogenization”
• Longer range forecasts require global approach
3rd NSTWS, Vienna VA, July 25-27 2007
NWP observational data requirement as a function of forecast range
Improvement in forecast skill formiddle and high latitudes
Polar winds from MODIS:Pioneered by GMAO, transferred via JCSDA to NCEP/EMC
• Sequences of water vapor images
from MODIS can be used for wind retrivals in high-latitude regions not seen from geostationary orbit
MODIS WV imagery, 24 h periodConsistent 15-20% improvement inhurricane track forecasts in 2004
3rd NSTWS, Vienna VA, July 25-27 2007
Research to Operations; why do we (occasionally) fail?
I. Lack of funding
II. Lack of coordination between R and O
III. Lack of human resources
IV. Premature exit
V. Science not sufficiently mature
VI. Lack of awareness of needs
3rd NSTWS, Vienna VA, July 25-27 2007
Scientific roadblocks
• Imagery data/feature tracking winds– Quality control and height assignment notoriously
difficult
• Surface winds– Not a model variable; difficult to relate to
prognostic variables
• Anything related to the hydrological cycle, e.g. clouds, precip– Arguable the most important unsolved scientific
problem in atmospheric science
3rd NSTWS, Vienna VA, July 25-27 2007
What can we do here?
• Open the dialog!
• JCSDA needs to be aware of needs of all users, direct as well as indirect - including Surface Transportation communities
• JCSDA user communities need to be cognizant of NWP capabilities and plans, and have a voice in the formulation of the latter