3q & 9m 2018 results briefing - china sunsine · 2018. 11. 8. · p&l highlights 4 * sgd to...
TRANSCRIPT
中国尚舜化工控股有限公司
CHINA SUNSINE CHEMICAL HOLDINGS LTD.
1
3Q & 9M 2018RESULTS BRIEFING
7 November 2018
PRESENTATION OUTLINE
Financial Overview
Key Developments
Industry Info and Outlook
2
Financial Overview
3
P&L Highlights4
* SGD to RMB exchange rate @5.0315
RMB ’mln 3rd Quarter Ended 9 Months Ended
30 Sept 18 30 Sept 17 Change 30 Sept 18 30 Sept 17 Change
Group Revenue 775.6 634.4 22% 2,513.1 1,865.1 35%
Gross Profit 254.0 169.8 50% 876.4 496.9 76%
Gross Profit Margin 32.7% 26.8% 5.9 pts 34.9% 26.6% 8.3 pts
Profit Before Tax 172.8 103.6 67% 569.2 281.2 102%
Profit After Tax 143.4 77.6 85% 532.6 209.3 154%
EPS
(RMB cents/SGD
Cents*)
29.18/
5.80
15.79/
3.14
85% 108.34/
21.53
43.74/
8.69
148%
Revenue Growth5
RMB ’mln
619.5
797.9718.4
991.4
1,175.1
1,417.3
1,695.9
2,077.3
1,859.1
2,036.9
2,738.4
1,865.1
2,513.10
0.0
500.0
1,000.0
1,500.0
2,000.0
2,500.0
3,000.0
FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 9M17 9M18
9M18 Revenue up 35% y-o-y boosted by higher ASP and sales volume
Revenue By Quarter6
RMB ’mln
3Q18 vs 3Q17 : +22%
3Q18 vs 2Q18 : - 12%
432.1
497.3475.9
453.8445.1
491.1547.3 553.4
575656.2
634.4
873.3856.9 880.6
775.6
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
2015 2016 2017 2018
1Q20182Q2018
3Q2018
Sales Volume7
Tons
31,036 30,787
45,42054,275
60,907
81,371
98,345
108,973114,572
135,791140,476
101,702111,529
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 9M17 9M18
9M2018 Sales volume up 10% y-o-y due mainly to more orders received as tire
makers recognize the Group’s ability to provide stable supply
Sales Volume by Products8
Tons
31,036 29,805
40,196
46,34350,148
64,252
72,71076,089 76,090
82,767 83,335
61,613 62,294
0464
3,468 4,413 7,873
10,724 11,94812,102
15,41720,031 22,283
16,27319,034
0 185 1,361 2,971 2,0615,183
12,281
19,903 21,640
31,21434,858
23,816
30,201
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 9M17 9M18
Accelerator Insoluble Sulphure Anti-oxidant and others
Sales Volume 9M18 vs 9M17
Accelerators + 1%
Insoluble Sulphur + 17%
Anti-oxidants & Others + 27%
Sales Volume By Quarter9
25,377
30,948
29,203 29,04530,051
34,483
36,797
34,46033,046
34,55834,098
38,77436,797 37,567 37,166
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
2015 2016 2017 2018
Tons1Q2018 2Q2018
3Q18 vs 3Q17 : +9%
3Q18 vs 2Q18: -1%
3Q2018
Sales Contribution (By Region)10
Rest of Asia
US
Europe
Others
PRC
61%
9M18 Sales Contribution (y-o-y)
27%
2%
8%
Region 3Q2018 9M2018 9M2017
China 59% 61% 64%
Rest of Asia 23% 25% 25%
US 3% 2% 6%
Europe 10% 9% 4%
Others 5% 2% 1%
Total 100% 100% 100%
Overall Average Selling Price (ASP)11
RMB/Ton
19.8K
25.9K
15.8K
18.3K19.3K
17.4K
17.2K
19.1K
16.2K
15.0K
19.4K
22.4K
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 9M
ASP by Quarter12
RMB/Ton
17.0K16.0K 16.3K
15.6K14.8K 14.2K
14.8K16.0K
17.3K
18.9K 18.5K
22.4K23.2K 23.3K
20.7K
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18
• 3Q18 ASP up 12% y-o-y due mainly to continued short supply situation in China since 2017
• 3Q18 ASP dropped 11% q-o-q due to the decrease in raw material prices and slowing demands
13
RMB/ Ton
Main Raw Materials Cost
2,000
6,000
10,000
14,000
18,000
22,000
Key Raw Materials Price Trend
Aniline
Tert-butylamine
Cyclohexylamine
Ketone
Dicyclohexylamine
Carbon Disulfide
Aniline
Gross Profit
9M18 Gross profit grew 76% y-o-y due to higher ASP and sales volume
14
125.2
226.8
160.2
224.1
293.4243.9
308.0
567.4
492.0
547.1
788.1
496.9
876.4
0.0
100.0
200.0
300.0
400.0
500.0
600.0
700.0
800.0
900.0
FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 9M17 9M18
RMB ’mln
Net Profit15
RMB ’mln
76.1106.7
88.3115.3
99.4
32
76.7
220.2195.2
221.7
341.3
209.3
532.6
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 9M17 9M18
• Net Profit surge due to higher ASP and higher sales volume.
• Group’s main subsidiary-Shangdong Sunsine enjoys a concessionary tax rate of
15% throughout FY17, FY18 and FY19 due to its “High-tech Enterprise” status
Net Profit By Quarter16
47.4 47.155.3
45.533.6
49.0
72.866.3
57.2
74.5 77.6
132.0
149.5 191.7 143.4
0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
2015 2016 2017 2018
3Q18 vs 3Q17: +85%
3Q18 vs 2Q18: - 25%
1Q2018
RMB ’mln
• 3Q18 Net profit jumped 85% y-o-y mainly due to higher ASP and higher sales volume
with expanded profit margin
• 3Q18 Net profit dropped 25% (excluding one-time tax credit of RMB48 mln) q-o-q due to
the decline in ASP
2Q2018
3Q2018
239.7
48
Margins Analysis17
20.2%
28.4%
22.3% 22.6%
25.0%
17.2%18.2%
27.3% 26.5% 26.9%28.8%
34.9%
12.3%13.3%
12.3% 11.6%
8.5%
2.3%4.5%
10.6% 10.5% 10.9%12.5%
21.2%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
Gross Profit Margin(GPM)
Net Profit Margin(NPM)
19.3%
--- Adjusted by taking out the one-time credit of tax expense of RMB 48 mln in FY17
Margins Analysis By Quarter18
31.7%
24.3%
26.8%
23.5%24.2%
27.3%28.2%27.2%
24.4%
28.5%26.8%
33.3%34.9%
36.7%
32.7%
11.0%9.5%
11.6%10.0%
7.5%
10.0%
13.3%11.0%
10.0%11.4%12.2%
15.1%
17.4%
27.2%
18.5%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
Gross ProfitMargin (GPM)
Net Profit Margin(NPM)
21.8%
--- Adjusted by taking out the one-time credit of tax expense of RMB 48 mln in FY17
Balance Sheet Highlight
30/09/2018 31/12/2017 31/12/2016
Current Assets (RMB’mln) * 1,932.9 1,424.6 1,050.5
Current Liabilities (RMB’mln) 443.2 385.3 280.8
Current Ratio 4.36 3.70 3.74
Shareholders’ Equity (RMB’mln) 2,212.3 1,742.4 1,361.6
D/E ratio ** 0 0 0
NAV per share (RMB cents) (equivalent to SGD cents)
450.28/
89.50
354.37/
73.23
293.42/
60.64
Net Cash per share (RMB cents)(equivalent to SGD cents)
167.4
33.3
101.6/
20.2
56.1/
11.1
19
* Including Cash RMB 822.3 mln + Notes RMB 351.0 mln
** No bank borrowing since end of FY2016
Key Developments
20
Ongoing Projects
Project Status CapEx
30,000-ton Accelerator TBBS:
Phase I of 10,000-ton capacity at
Shanxian Plant
At final stage of trial
run approvalRMB 100 mln
Insoluble Sulphur:10,000-ton production line at
Dingtao plant
At final stage of trial
run approvalRMB 50 mln
Heating Plant:Add one boiler and one electric
generator
Started to trial runRMB 100 mln
21
Annual Capacity
2007
(before IPO)FY17 FY18 FY9e
Rubber
Accelerators 32,000 87,000 87,000 97,000
Insoluble
Sulphur nil 20,000 20,000 30,000
Anti-oxidant
(TMQ & 6PPD) nil 45,000 45,000 45,000
Total 32,000 152,000 152,000 172,000
22
Industry Info and Outlook
23
China’s New Car Sales24
8.8 9.4
13.6
18.1 18.5 19.3
2223.5
24.6
28 28.9
20.5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 9M18
PRC New Car Sales
sales
growth yoy
• 20.5 mln cars sold in China in the first 9 months of 2018, up 0.83% y-o-y
• China remains the largest auto market in the world. After robust growth in the past
decade, China’s new car sales expected to grow moderately on a high base
in million units %
Global Vehicle Population25
240 250 260279
295310 322
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 9M18
http://subscribers.wardsintelligence.com/analysis/world-vehicle-
population-rose-46-2016
PRC Motor Vehicle Population
Mln units
http://www.chyxx.com/industry/201705/521742.html
• Global vehicle population is growing, mainly driven by rising car ownership in developing countries
Riding on Rising Tire Consumption26
• Replacement tires and new car sales account for 70% and 30% respectively
• As overseas factories of Chinese tyre makers produce for export to the US and the EU, tire
production in China expected to grow moderately
443 456 470529
562 565610
653
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Source: http://www.tyrefh.org/
PRC Tire Production Volume
2840 2990 31403400
3660
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018e
Projected worldwide tire market volumefrom 2014 to 2018
in million unitsin million units
www.statista.com
•
Competitive Strengths27
Market Leadership
Products
Strong Customer Base
Environmental Protection advantage
R&D Capability
Ready Resources for Future Expansion
- World largest accelerators and China’s biggest IS producer
- Capturing 20% of global and 33% of China’s accelerators markets
- Listed in the first batch of “National Champion Manufacturing Enterprise”
- “High-tech Enterprise” Status
- Academician R&D workstation in collaboration with Tsinghua and CAS
- R&D Centre partnered with Qingdao University of Science and Technology
- Early adopter of Environmental protection initiative
- 1/3 of capex invested in environmental protection and safety
- Transformation and upgrading towards “Green, Intelligent & Miniaturized”
- Strong cash position
- Land spaces available in our production facilities
- Built-up infrastructures
- Over 1,000 customers worldwide spanning over 40 countries
- Serving 2/3 of global top 75 tire manufacturers
- 1/3 output exported
- High quality
- Stable supply
- Full range of varieties
Some Investors’ Concerns -1
Q : Are rubber chemical products commodities?
A : NO – They are products in the niche market.
Reasons:1. Rubber chemicals are not produced in a large scale
2. Renowned tire makers, which account for the bulk of the global tire production, require rubber chemicals to satisfy their special, onerous specifications. High technology and talents are required to make such rubber chemicals
3. China Sunsine has been profitable since 1998
28
Some Investors’ Concerns -2
Q : Are entry barriers high for the rubber chemical industry?
A : Yes.
Reasons:
1. Capital intensive -- land, environmental protection and safety infrastructure.
2. Know-how -- technology, talents and management skills also required to produce specialty chemicals.
3. Stringent supplier selection process by renowned tire makers, taking into account of production capabilities, capacity, quality of products & services and compliance with government’s regulations etc.
4. Rubber chemical industry currently undergoing consolidation.
5. Difficult to get approval for new capacities
29
Some Investors’ Concerns -3
Q : Will weakening car sales affect the rubber chemical industry?
A : There will be material impact only if the new car sales experience significant negative growth
Reasons:
1. New cars accounts for only 30% of tire consumption. Existing cars consume the remaining 70% as replacement for old tires. For passenger cars, every car needs to replace 1.5 piece of tires every year.
2. New car sales in developing countries expected to stay robust owing to low car ownership
30
Country US Australia Italy Japan Germany S. Korea China
Motor vehicles per
1,000 people
910 740 625 591 555 459 231
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_vehicles_per_capita
Trade war tension between US and China
makes the world economy uncertain and
weakens China’s tire export to US
Turning Challenges into Opportunities31
Challenges Opportunities
Short supply situation may ease as some
affected productions resuming gradually
which could lead to the normalisation of ASP
The policy affects smaller producers more
and will lead to industry consolidation,
benefiting bigger players
Sunsine's capacity growth will result in sales
volume growth and lower unit cost. Profit will
grow in long term even if ASP normalises
Group’s sales to US are small, about 2-3%.
Wherever they are located, tire factories all
over the world need rubber chemicals
Fluctuation of raw material pricesWith “cost-plus pricing”, Sunsine is able to
maintain a reasonably good gross margin
The 3-year “Battle for a Blue Sky” initiative
affects all chemical companies in China
Listed On SGX Mainboard32
SHARE PERFORMANCE
• No rights issue and new share placement since IPO
• P/E less than 4 times (Rolling EPS for last four quarters SGD 0.27)
• P/B ratio 1.13 times (NAV per share SGD 0.895)
Dividend Payment History33
Net Profit
(in RMB ’mln)Dividend
(in SGD cents)
IPO price : SGD 39 cents
Total dividend paid : SGD 14.5 cents (for 11 consecutive years)
Dividend Policy : Payout not less than 20% of net profit for FY17 & FY18
76.1106.7 88.3
115.3
99.4
32
76.7
220.2195.2
221.7
341.3
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17
Net Profit Dividend
Total SGD 3 cents
Chairman’s Message34
Mr. Xu Chengqiu
Executive Chairman
Despite a decline in ASP in this quarter, the Group was able to
maintain a reasonably good margin level due to its core competences of
stable delivery and superior quality. Stringent environmental protection
and safety requirements and frequent inspections remain key imperative
in next three years. The Group continues to place emphasis on and
invest heavily in environmental protection & safety and technology
innovation, to further strengthen its market leader position.
We can see that the ASP has stabilised in October and the Chinesetire makers have started to increase their production utilizationrate in 4Q2018. With our strong competitive advantages, we remaincautiously optimistic on the Group’s performance in the next 12 months,
and are confident of its sustainable and stable growth.
35
Q & A
MEDIA/INVESTOR CONTACT
Tong Yiping, CFO, [email protected]
Jennie Liu, IR Manager, [email protected]
112 Robinson Road #11-01
Singapore 068902
(+65) 6220-9070
www.ChinaSunsine.com