38°
DESCRIPTION
38°. google: cisn shakemap nc http://www.cisn.org/shakemap/nc/shake/. 37.5°. 37°. 123°. 122°. 121°. The Next Bay Area Earthquake. What to expect. What is the Hazard in San Jose?. Dr. John Boatwright, Bay Area Earthquake Alliance Co-Chair - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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38°
37.5°
37°
123° 122° 121°
google: cisn shakemap nchttp://www.cisn.org/shakemap/nc/shake/
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The Next Bay Area Earthquake
What to expectWhat is the Hazard in San Jose?Dr. John Boatwright, Bay Area Earthquake Alliance Co-Chair
Co-Regional Coordinator for Northern California US Geological Survey
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California urban areas areprisoners of the Plate Boundary
E-ASF Bay Area
Greater LA
North American Plate
Pacific Plate
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Pacific platePacific platePacific platePacific plate
North AmericanNorth Americanplateplate
North AmericanNorth Americanplateplate
40 mm/yr Farallons-Sierra Nevada
17171717
24242424
99996666
9999
15151515
2222
5555
7777
7777
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“We need to correct our style of architecture … to work a savings of untold sums of money in the future” - San Jose Mercury News
October 29, 1868
Hayward Earthquake
1868
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San Francisco
1906
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1989
Loma Prieta
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Bay Area Earthquake History
1600-2000 A.D.
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Cum
ulat
ive
M0,
dyn
e-cm
Moment Accumulation in the SF Bay Region
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In the next 30 years there is a 63% prob-ability, nearly a 2/3rds chance, of an M6.7 or larger earthquake in the greater Bay Area. Hazard is highest in the East Bay due to the larger number of faults there, including the Hayward fault.(UCERF2 Report, 2007)
2007-2036
21%
31%
6%
3%
1%
3%63%
7%
11%
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M ≥ 6.7
Hazard is highest in the East Bay due to the larger number of faults including theHayward Fault.
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1868 Hayward
Earthquake
this ShakeMapis based on
damage reports-there were only
260,000 people in the Bay Area
38°
-121.5° -121°
the shakingwas strongest in San Leandro and Hayward
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14
Hayward Fault Earthquake:The Infrastructure Earthquake
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QuickTime™ and aH.264 decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Animation of Shaking from a M7.0 on the Hayward FaultSan Leandro Epicenter
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/regional/nca/simulations/hayward/
QuickTime™ and aH.264 decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
QuickTime™ and aH.264 decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
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Losses by county - M7.0 scenario
16
Solano
Sonoma
Santa Clara
Santa Mateo
San Francisco
Marin
Contra Costa
Alameda
$0 $40B $80 $100
Economic Loss ($Billions)
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What will happen in the next large earthquake?
• Soft-Story Damage & Failures
• Fire Following Earthquake
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Soft-Story Buildings
18
soft-story retrofits in San Francisco are still voluntary
rather than mandatory
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1989 Favorable Fire Conditions
caused by soft-story failure