3. erakv 2nd seminar-investment

Investment based on Risk Assessment and Past Disaster Experiences

- Hints from the Sendai City Experience -

Satoru NISHIKAWA Ph.D

Executive Director of Research, JCADRMember, Science Council of Japan

April 2017

Ranking of Earthquakes 20-21st Century

Year Place Magnitude

1960 Chile 9.5

1964 Alaska 9.2

2004 Indonesia Sumatra 9.1

2011 East Japan 9.0

1952 Kamchatka 9.0

2010 Chile 8.8

1906 Ecuador 8.8

1965Alaska Aleutian Islands 8.7

2005 Indonesia Sumatra 8.6

1950 Tibet, Assam 8.6

1957Alaska Aleutian Islands 8.6

Year Place Casualties

1976 China Tangshan 242800

1920 China Ningxia 235502

2004 Indonesia Sumatra 227898

2010 Haiti 222500

1923 Japan Kanto 105000

2008 China Sichuan 87587

2005 Pakistan, Afghanistan 86000

1908 Italy Sicily 82000

1927 China Gansu 80000

1970 Peru 66794

・・・

2011 East Japan 18449

Strong Earthquakes Deadly Earthquakes

Hazards Confronting Vulnerable Communities Cause Disasters

Disasters

Hazard

(risk assessment)

Vulnerability

(societal conditions) 3

Less Disasters

Hazard

(risk assessment)Vulnerability

(societal conditions)

Disasters

4

Four Phases of Disaster ReductionPre-Disaster

Prevention & MitigationPreparedness

Post-DisasterResponseRecovery & Reconstruction

Search & Rescue after Earthquake

1999 Earthquake in Turkey

2003 Earthquake in Algeria

Turkish SAR Team trained in Japan and the Japanese Team jointly succeeded in rescue.

Live rescue is limited !

How can we take action before ?

Preventive Action based on Past Experiences.

Preventive Action based on Appreciation of Risk.

Understanding the History of Disasters. (Remember 1934 Nepal EQ)Disaster Records & Statistics must be Archived.Lessons Learnt must be Archived and Disseminated.

Understanding the Scientific Mechanism of Hazards.Risk Assessment with Consideration of Societal Conditions.Risk Assessment must be Disseminated, Understood and be Acted on.

Culture of Prevention must prevail to encourage action for safety & resilience.

How can we take action before ?Past Experiences + Appreciation of Risk

Culture of Prevention must prevail to encourage action for safety & resilience.

Imagination of Future Disaster & Tragedy What if (school collapse, hospital collapse, road blocked, bridge fall, + + +) ?

Knowledge of Effective Preventive Methods

Action !

Seismology & Seismic

Engineering

Public Acceptance of Value of

Safety

Local architects & masons

Some elements for earthquake safety of housing

Action is required in each of these elements.

Japan’s long tradition of coping with natural disasters

416A.D. August, Yamato-Kochi Earthquake The first written record of Earthquake in Japan within “Nihonshoki” the first official history book of Japan, edited in 8th century.

684A.D. November, Hakuho-Nankai Tonankai Earthquake (Estimate Magnitude: 8.2-3) & Tsunami

The first written record of Earthquake Tsunami in Japan within “Nihonshoki”.

Most dreadful things historically in Japan for children1. Earthquakes, 2. Lightning/Thunder, 3. Fire, 4. father(typhoon)

Jishin Kaminari Kaji OyajiNot anymore

Pagoda of Horyuji Temple built 680A.D.The Oldest Wooden “High-Rise” Building in Japan withstood numerous Earthquakes over the Centuries

Combination of semi-flexible timberwork joints and a central wooden pillardisperses and absorbs earthquake shocks

5 layered, 32m high

Modern Japan is still full of Tragedies & Lessons Learnt

1896 Meiji-Sanriku Tsunami killed 22,000

1923 Great Kanto Earthquake destroyed Tokyo and killed 105,000

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

年

Great East Japan Eq. & Tsunami

Hanshin Awaji (Kobe) Earthquake

Ise-wan Tyhoon

1st Epoch2nd Epoch

3rd Epoch

4,897

22,106

6,482

3,212

6,062

20000

1945 55 65 75 85 95 2005

Statistics on Casualties by Natural Disasters in Japan

5,868

Year Earthquake (Magnitude) Death Toll1945 Mikawa Earthquake (M6.8) 2,306

1946 Nankai Earthquake (M8.0) 1,3301948 Fukui Earthquake (M7.1) 3,7691952 Tokachi-oki Earthquake (M8.2) 331960 Chile Earthquake & Tsunami (M8.5) 1391964 Niigata Earthquake (M7.5) 26

1968 Tokachi-oki Earthquake (M7.9) 521974 Izu-hanto-oki Earthquake (M6.9) 30

1978 Izu-Oshima Kinkai Earthquake (M7.0) 251978 Miyagi-ken-oki Earthquake (M7.4) (Sendai was hit) 281983 Nihonkai Chubu Earthquake & Tsunami (M7.7) 1041984 Nagano-ken Seibu Earthquake (M6.8) 291993 Hokkaido Nansei-oki Earthquake & Tsunami (M7.8) 2301995 Hanshin-Awaji <Kobe> Earthquake (M7.3) 6,436

Severe Damage by Earthquakes in Japan

福井県資料

内閣府防災災害教訓報告書

Fukui Earthquake(M.7.1) 1948 Tokachi-oki Earthquake(M7.9) 1968

Collapsed buildings

Pancake-collapsed building

Miyagi-ken-oki Earthquake(M7.4) 1978

Sendai City Experience

Crashed concrete block wall

17 school children crushed to death

Evolution of Japan’s Anti-Seismic Building Code

1923 The Great Kanto Earthquake (M7.9: Tokyo devastated 105,000 dead) 1924 First Seismic Building Code1948 Fukui Earthquake (M7.1: 3,769 dead)1950 Building Standard Law1968 Tokachi-oki Earthquake (M7.9: 52 dead)1978 Miyagi-ken-oki Earthquake (M7.4: 28 dead)

1981Revision of Building Standard Lawrequirements:

No damage against medium scale (JMA scale 5+) earthquakes, To be able to continue use after these medium earthquakes.No collapse & safety of people inside against large scale(JMA scale 6+ to 7)

earthquakes

JMA scale 5+ ⇒ almost equivalent to Mercalli scale VIIJMA scale 6+ to 7 ⇒ almost equivalent to Mercalli scale VIII to IX

1995 Hanshin-Awaji(Kobe) Earthquake (M7.3: 6,347 dead)1995 Revision of Building Standard (encourage metal reinforcement to wood joints)2000 Revision of Building Standard (ground strength check made mandatory)

19

Fire in a city center Collapsed houses

Damaged office buildingDamaged railway track

Collapsed viaducts of an expressway

1995 Hanshin-Awaji (Kobe) Earthquake (M7.3) Kobe Municipal Government Headquarter

Built after 1981 Building

Standard

Built before 1981 Building

Standard

5,520 direct deaths (+916 relevant deaths)

total 6,436 victims83% immediately killed by building collapse

surgeon general’s autopsy report

Prevention & Mitigation Preparedness

Ensure Building Safety !Public AwarenessDisaster Manager’s Proper Action

Lesson 1: Collapse of old houses built before 1981 standard was the main cause of death

1995 new Act on Seismic Retrofitting of Existing BuildingsPublic awareness campaign on housing seismic safetyPublic campaign on affixing furniture and room safety

Damage to Kobe City Hall main building

22

Difficultly in Communication at HYOGO Prefecture Headquarter

Lesson 2:Delay of First Response due to lack of information at the direct hit Kobe city

• Local Government Headquarter damaged, paralyzed• Fire Stations collapsed local response initially paralyzed• Destroyed almost all traffic system• Telecommunication, even satellite telecommunication

system were cut off due to power failure⇒ It took three days to grasp the entire picture of damage⇒ The bottom-up reporting & request system could not

function

Nationwide support system for local & regional emergencyAppointment of Minister of State for Disaster ManagementHigh density seismometer network &Development of disaster damage estimation system (DIS)

Paradigm shift after 1995 Hanshin-Awaji (Kobe) Earthquake

Most of the initial search & rescue done by family members and neighbors.How can we encourage disaster preparedness at community level?

Importance of building safety re-recognized.Who owns the houses and buildings?Who can take care of safety inside the house or in the office?

Business Continuity Planning is important for reducing economic loss.Who decides on BCP of companies?

Importance of Pre-disaster measures re-recognized.Pre-assessment for each possible large scale earthquakes & floods.Disaster reduction strategy based on pre-assessments.

Government centered disaster reduction

Multi-stakeholder approach to disaster risk reduction

Consumer’s Awareness changesNewspaper Advertisement of New Housing

Strong, Healthy and High Quality!

“This construction method showed its strength in case of Kobe Earthquake 1995. None of this type suffered total or half collapse”

Recent Ad of Seismic House Retrofit in Japan

27

Vibration Control Damper

Lightweight & Tough Roof

Tiles

Seismic Strength Joints

Durable Outer Wall

Anti Termite Base Structure

People’s Demand for Earthquake Safety Creates New Supply of Affordable Engineering Methods

Anti-Seismic Systematic Retrofit

to withstand 6+ Scale Earthquake

How can we create a win-win with the Private Sector ?

Risk Reduction = Reliability & Quality

Expenditures for Risk Reduction

Investment for Added Value

If the public at large appreciate the added value of safety & resilience, and understand the science and technology behind the scenes;

1978/06/12 2003/05/26

Max. JMA seismic intensity : 5

Deaths : 28

Collapsed houses : 1,183

Deaths : 0

Collapsed houses : 2

Magnitude : 7.4 Magnitude : 7.0

Reduced

Focal depth : 40 km

Max. JMA seismic intensity : 6 lower

Focal depth : 71km

2005/08/16

Injured : 174

Half-collapsed houses : 5,574

Half-collapsed houses : 21

Injured : 1,325

Deaths : 0

Collapsed houses : 1

Magnitude : 7.2

Max. JMA seismic intensity : 6 lower

Focal depth : 72km

Injured : 91

Half-collapsed houses : 0

Partly damaged houses : 60,124

Partly damaged houses : 2,342

Partly damaged houses : 856

3 Miyagi-ken Earthquakes: Sendai was hit

Pancake-collapsed building

Case of Miyagi-ken Earthquake1978/06/12 Sendai Experience

Crashed concrete block wall

17 school children crushed to death

Fallen outside wallCluttered room



Fallen ceilingFallen ceiling

Lessons from DisastersWhat went wrong with pre-disaster countermeasures ?What went right with pre-disaster countermeasures ?

It is no use crying over spilt milk, but

We must make best of the lessons learnt.

SFDRR priority 3 “Investing in disaster risk reduction for resilience”

What did Sendai City prepare & invest before March 2011 Great East Japan EQ ?

Tokyo Inland EQ

Tokai EQ

Tonankai & Nankai EQ Japan Trench &

Chishima Trench EQs

Recognized Possibilities of large-scale M8 earthquakes and tsunamis in Japan (pre-2011)

Miyagi-ken Oki EQ99% possibility within 30 years

Sendai

Risk Assessment of Miyagi-ken Oki EQ (M7.6-M8.2) published in 2006

damage estimatesBuildings heavily damaged/collapsed

14,000 ~21,000 buildings

Road damage/blockage 30Water supply interruption 250,000 householdsElectricity stoppage 520,000 householdsGas supply stoppage 170,000 householdsCasualties 90~290 deaths

Risk Assessment showed that such damage maycome within 30 years with 99% possibility

Risk is identified! ⇒What Next?Hints from the Sendai Experience.

Sendai City： population 1,046,000 (2010 census)Previous experience of 1978(M7.4), 2003(M7.0), 2005(M7.2) earthquakesProbability of another Miyagi-ken Oki EQ estimated as 99% within 30 years !Risk is imminent! ⇒ Policy & Action by Sendai City

Nov. 1999 “Sendai City Building Assets Seismic Safety Target”Sept. 2005 “Sendai Disaster Reduction Expo” with Cabinet Office of JapanApril 2008 “Sendai City Earthquake Resilience Policy”Examples of Action

Seismic Retrofit of SchoolsSeismic Retrofit of Sendai City HallSeismic Retrofit of Fire StationsSubsidy to Earthquake Resistance Analysis of Private HousingSubsidy to Earthquake Retrofitting of Private Housing & more

Minimized human casualties by the Great East Japan EQ (M9.0)

M9 Earthquake/Tsunami Came ! 11 March 2011

Sendai was prepared for a Miyagi-ken Oki EQ of M7.6-M8.2; but what came was M9 EQ & Tsunami

写真出典仙台市復興五年記録誌

38

Collapsed office building in Kobe

Hanshin-Awaji (Kobe) Earthquake (M7.3) 1995

The Great East JapanEarthquake(M9.0) 2011

No collapse of buildings in Sendai.Business as usual inside.

Sendai City carefully examined the lessons learnt of Kobe 1995

Population of Kobe 1990: 1,477,410

Population of Sendai 2010: 1,046,000

39

Collapsed Kobe City Hall old buildingKobe water department was in the crushed 4th floor.

Hanshin-Awaji (Kobe) Earthquake (M7.3) 1995

The Great East JapanEarthquake(M9.0) 2011

Sendai City Hall temporary evacuated for safety check. Safety confirmed in 1 hour and resumed functions.

Sendai City carefully examined the lessons learnt of Kobe 1995 40

No structural damage to Sendai schools.Not a single child killed in Sendai school.

Seismic Retrofit of SchoolsSeismic retrofit of schools based on Sendai City Earthquake Resilience Policy April 2008

M9 Earthquake Came ! 11 March 2011

Progress of school seismic retrofitting : 99.6% done by April 2010

Seismic Retrofit of Sendai City HallSendai City Hall built in 1965 (before the 1981 seismic standard)Earthquake Resistance Analysis done in 1996 ⇒necessity for seismic retrofitSeismic retrofit work done in 2007 to 2008

Structural safety of City Hall confirmed in 1 hour.City hall served as temporary shelter forstranded commuters & visitors.

Seismic Brace with vibration damper inserted.

Seismic Brace & Seismometer installed on ground floor hall.


Photo by Tobishima Cooperation

Sendai City Hall functioned as intended

1st Emergency Coordination Meeting of Sendai City on 11 March 2011

Seismic Retrofit of Fire Stations

None of the Fire Stations structurally damaged by earthquake.Functioned as Emergency Operation base.


Seismic Retrofit of Sendai City Fire Stations based on Nov. 1999 “Sendai City Building Assets Seismic Safety Target”April 2008 “Sendai City Earthquake Resilience Policy”

Earthquake Resistance Analysis of Private Housing

In 2008, 17% of private housing stock in Sendai City was below seismic standard of 1981.

Urgent need to improve the earthquake resistance of private housing stock to save lives. ⇒Policy package for Earthquake Resistance of Houses

Policy Target : more than 90% of private housing to be above seismic standard by 2015.

1st Step : Subsidy to Earthquake Resistance Analysis of Private Housing

Private owners of detached wooden structure house built before 1981 can get earthquake resistance analysis with minimal fee (JPY14,580～JPY17,280)

Private owners of condominiums built before 1981 can get earthquake resistance analysis 50% subsidy as a group.

Earthquake Resistance Retrofit ofPrivate Housing

2nd Step : Subsidy to Earthquake Resistance Retrofit of Private Housing

Private owners of detached wooden structure house built before 1981 can get subsidy of 50% earthquake resistance retrofit work.

Private owners of condominiums built before 1981 can get earthquake resistance analysis 50% subsidy as a group.

M9 Earthquake Came ! 11 March 2011 658 direct deaths (647 in tsunami inundated area, 11 in non-inundated area)26 missing in Sendai City (population 1,046,000)

TsunamiInundated area

Non-inundated area,Heavy damage but not fatal

写真出典仙台市復興五年記録誌

46

Output of Seismic Risk AssessmentKathmandu Valley Risk Assessment Outputs

Peak Ground Acceleration What does this mean to

Schools ?Health Facilities ?

Total school building : 5,731

Peak Ground Acceleration What this means to

Schools

Schools in red are not just red dots

on this map

School Building Damagein Bhaktapur

Schools in red are not just red dots

on this map

Do we want to see these photos in the red dot locations in the future ?

School Building Damage in Gongbu

Imagine if your child is inside this school.

DamageProbability : Building80 - 100% 1160 - 80% 3040 - 60% 66

Total health facility building : 584

Peak Ground Acceleration What this means to Health Facilities

Health facilities in red are not just red dots on this map

Do we want to see these photos in the red dot locations in the future ?

Destroyed hospital in Shindhupalchok

Health facilities in red are not just red dots on this map

Imagine if your child is injured but cannot receive medicare in this hospital.

Peak Ground Acceleration What does this mean to

Bridges of Emergency Roads

Heavy : 8Moderate : 22Slight : 3 In a total of 33 estimated bridges

Peak Ground Acceleration What this means to

Bridges of Emergency Roads

Red points on major roads are

not just symbols on this map

Red points on major roads are

not just symbols on this map

What would happen if the major road bridges are damaged? Can the ambulance vehicles rush?

Niigata Chuetsu EQ Oct.2004

What would be the impact to the economy if tourists disappear ? Seismic Retrofitting Policy

Shift the Fragility Curve Rightward

What if the mud adobe houses in Kathmandu could be reinforced by cement with structural beams?

Effectiveness of seismic retrofitting policy is measurable by using the fragility curve.

More hints for Resilient Kathmandu Valley ?

Since 2013, all the Hotels in Japan built before 1981 are obliged to do their Earthquake Resistance Analysis and disclose the results to the public.

Major Cities have prepared subsidy programs for seismic retrofitting of hotels built before 1981. (incl. Sendai City)

Do foreign tourists want to stay in a fragile hotel?Probably NO.

Incentives for Investment in Earthquake Resilience !

April 2015

How can we better share the lessons learnt ?

March2011写真出典仙台市復興五年記録誌

City of Sendai & Tohoku University will host “World Bosai Forum” in Nov. 2017 to share the lessons learnt

Proverb by Japanese Physics ScientistDr. Torahiko TERADA (1878-1935)who investigated the damage by 1923 Great Kanto Earthquake

「天災は忘れた頃にやってくる」

“Natural Disasters will hit us by the Time people have forgotten about it”

60

How to foster & inherit the Culture of Prevention

Thank you for your attention!