26404_al-qaeda book draft 100625

8/11/2019 26404_AL-QAEDA Book Draft 100625

1/218


2/218

STRATFOR700 Lavaca Street, Suite 900

Austin, Texas 78701

Copyright 2010 by STRATFORA rights reserve!, incu!ing the right o" repro!uction

in #hoe or in part

$rinte! in the %nite! States o" A&erica

The contents o" this boo' originay appeare! as anayseson STRATFOR.ssubscription (eb site)

)

*S+- [?]

.A/1- [?]

$ubisher- rant $erry

.!itor- ichae cCuar

$ro3ect Coor!inator- 4obert *n's

5esigner- T6 Lensing


3/218

CO/T0/TS

1ntrodu(tion xA /ote on Content x

HA!TE" #$ THE UNITED %TATE%

2eo&o%iti(a% 3iar: Fa%%on and Two 4ersistent Sta%emates x


4/218

1/TRO3+CT1O/

[T&]

STRATFORAustin) Teas[?]) 787


5/218


6/218

C;A4T0R 8: [

Ja(# Ro(he) Austra%ia.s =Re%u(tant Mi%itant)> who re&orted% has ties to a% 9aeda

and Jemaah 1s%amiah

3rawin' !rom the statements 'iven to investi'ators) ea(h o! these (ases hassimi%arities and di!!eren(es !rom the others ? the most stri#in' simi%arit "ein' that thewere a%% (au'ht* Thou'h a %oo# at these three o!!ers some insi'hts into a% 9aeda.s esternre(ruitment) it shou%d not "e assumed that these assessments in(%ude a%% o! the 'rou&.sre(ruitin' and trainin' te(hni@ues* The ver !a(t that these men were (au'ht raises@uestions ? and even su''ests a% 9aeda was !u%% (o'ni,ant o! the &otentia% !or

dete(tion* The stories o! those not et (au'ht (ou%d &rove mu(h more interestin' andinsi'ht!u%*

'ose !a()lla* +,e D)r+- Bo.ber

Born in 87 in /ew or#) 4adi%%a had a trou"%ed (hi%dhood that %ed to 'an'invo%vement and run-ins with &o%i(e in Chi(a'o and F%orida* 1n 8) he was introdu(edto 1s%am ? re&orted% " his mana'er at a !ast !ood restaurant in F%orida ? thou'h somestories su''est that the introdu(tion o((urred whi%e he was servin' Dai% time* B 8E)4adi%%a had (han'ed his name to 1"rahim and "e(ome invo%ved with radi(a% 1s%amists inthe Ft* auderda%e area*

1n 86) 4adi%%a married and a(@uired a +*S* &ass&ort* Re&orts indi(ate that heand his wi!e %ived in a 'ated (ommunit) des&ite neither havin' a Do" ? su''estin' that4adi%%a a%read was re(eivin' some #ind o! sti&end !rom the 1s%ami( (ommunit* 1n 8G)he %e!t his wi!e and trave%ed to 0'&t* ;e staed there !or Dust more than a ear) marrin'an 0'&tian woman "e!ore headin' to 4a#istan* On(e a'ain) he too# a new name ?A"du%%ah a%-MuhaDir HA"du%%ah the 1mmi'rantI*

hi%e in 4a#istan) 4adi%%a met a emeni who introdu(ed him to another a% 9aedare(ruiter* This a(@uaintan(e s&onsored 4adi%%a.s tri& to A!'hanistan !or wea&ons trainin'


7/218

at a (am& overseen " A"u u"aida* There) he was 'iven on-the-Do" trainin' as a Ta%i"an'uard near Ka"u% ? a&&arent% a test o! his %oa%t* A!terward) 4adi%%a was a&&roa(hed" Mohammed Ate!) who "e'an determinin' the esterner.s (ommitment and &ossi"%euse as an o&erative*

4adi%%a was (hosen as a &otentia% o&erative on% a!ter he had (om&%eted "asi(

trainin' in A!'hanistan* This trend seems to !o%%ow that o! most estern a% 9aedare(ruits* As wi%% "e seen with the (ase o! Ja(# Ro(he) the dire(t re(ruitment o! o&erativesin estern nations is di!!i(u%t waitin' !or disa!!e(ted or otherwise e&%oita"%e esternersto ma#e their wa to a% 9aeda is &re!era"%e*

hat (ame net !or 4adi%%a a&&ears to "e another (ommon trend in a% 9aeda.sre(ruitment* ;e was sent to 4a#istan) where he re&orted a %ost &ass&ort and was issued anew one without stam&s that tra(#ed his &revious trave%s* 4adi%%a then went on ane&ense-&aid tri& "a(# to 0'&t to visit his wi!e ? an o"vious &er# and attem&t on a%9aeda.s &art to (ontinue the "ond with the Ameri(an a% 9aeda re(ruit* Two months %ater)4adi%%a was "a(# in A!'hanistan to re(eive his !irst assi'nment: "%owin' u& +*S*a&artment "ui%din's with a (om"ination o! natura% 'as %ea#s and detonators*

At this &oint) 4adi%%a.s &otentia% as an o&erative "e'an to s%i&* ;e had a !a%%in' outwith his assi'ned &artner) Ja!ar a%-Taer* H4adi%%a %ater said that Ja!ar was &ro"a"% anAmeri(an*I A!ter trainin' !or the o&eration) the two ar'ued* 4adi%%a then to%d his hand%ersthat the o&eration was o!!) sin(e he (ou%d not (arr it out a%one* This trainin' o((urredDust "e!ore the Se&t* 88 atta(#s in the +nited States* 1t is un(%ear whether the atta(#sa!!e(ted the men.s de(ision to (a%% o!! the 'as e&%osion atta(#s*

ater in the ear) as +*S* air stri#es in A!'hanistan "e'an) 4adi%%a !%ed to 4a#istan*There) he and another mi%itant attem&ted to se%% the idea o! detonatin' a nu(%ear "om" inAmeri(a* The two to%d A"u u"aida a"out instru(tions !or "ui%din' a nu(%ear devi(e thehad seen on the 1nternet* A"u u"aida had dou"ts a"out this idea and assi'ned them to(arr out the %on'-overdue a&artment "om"in's instead* But " this time) it a&&ears4adi%%a was no %on'er wi%%in' to %isten*

The idea o! detonatin' a nu(%ear wea&on ? or at %east a radio%o'i(a% devi(e ?was &resented to Kha%id Shei#h Mohammed " 4adi%%a in Mar(h 77* A'ain) it wasreDe(ted in !avor o! the a&artment atta(#s* A!ter severa% rounds o! dis(ussion) a% 9aeda'ave 4adi%%a and an asso(iate ea(h L7)777 and sent them on their wa* Two months %ater)4adi%%a was arrested whi%e enterin' the +nited States A"u u"aida ? " then in (ustod? had in!ormed investi'ators o! his a(tivities*

A!ter turnin' down the more easi% (arried out a&artment atta(#s) 4adi%%a "e(ameuse%ess as an a% 9aeda o&erative* But as a red herrin' !or +*S* se(urit !or(es to s&endresour(es and time on) he served a &ur&ose* ;e a%so re&resented a worst-(ase s(enario ?a (onverted Mus%im mi%itant who did not !it the ra(ia% &ro!i%in' desi'ned to weed out&ossi"%e a% 9aeda o&eratives*

")c,ar( "e)(* +,e %,oe Bo.ber

The son o! a Jamai(an !ather and an 0n'%ish mother) Ri(hard Reid was "orn andraised in a ondon su"ur"* Reid.s !ather ? re&orted% a%so a (onvert to 1s%am ? s&entmu(h o! his time in Dai%* B the mid 87s) Reid had a%so em"ar#ed on a %i!e o! (rime and


8/218

was in(ar(erated !or a series o! mu''in's* hi%e servin' time in the Fe%tham oun'o!!enders. institute) he was introdu(ed to) and em"ra(ed 1s%am*

i#e 4adi%%a) Reid (ame !rom an essentia%% !ather%ess home) "e(ame a Duveni%e&ett (rimina% and turned to 1s%am whi%e servin' time* 1s%am &rovided a sense o!"e%on'in' and &ur&ose !or "oth men however) their a&&arent %a(# o! se%!-dis(i&%ine a%so

o&ened them u& to the in!%uen(e o! radi(a%s*Reid ? who (han'ed his name to A"de% Rahim ? Doined the Briton Mos@ue)whi(h he%&ed to reha"i%itate !ormer (rimina%s* ;is devotion to studin' drew him to moreradi(a% mem"ers o! the 1s%ami( (ommunit* Reid "e'an a((usin' mos@ue mem"ers and%eaders o! deviatin' !rom the truth and a((e&tin' estern in!%uen(es* Be!ore "ein'e&e%%ed !rom the mos@ue) he met u& with !e%%ow disa!!e(ted worshi&er a(ariasMoussaoui*

1n %ate 8G) Reid sto&&ed attendin' Briton and moved to 4a#istan* ;e then"e'an trainin' in A!'hanistan and trave%ed to severa% (ountries ? in(%udin' 0'&t) 1srae%)Tur#e) Be%'ium) the /ether%ands and Fran(e* 3urin' these !%i'hts) Reid was a%%e'ed%s(outin' the se(urit &ro(edures o! Ameri(an air%ines he a%so visited radi(a% and mi%itant

1s%amist (ommunities* hi%e in A!'hanistan) Reid trained in a s&e(ia% (am& !or so%omartrs) %earnin' "om" ma#in' and methods o! avoidin' dete(tion* One o! hissu&ervisors was Kha%id Shei#h Mohammed*

Be!ore de&artin' !rom 4aris in 3e(em"er 778) Reid a(@uired a new &ass&ort !reeo! stam&s !rom his &revious trave%s* i#e 4adi%%a) he (%aimed to have %ost his ori'ina%&ass&ort* Reid was detained "rie!% !or @uestionin' at the 4aris air&ort 3e(* 8 ? theori'ina% date o! his &%anned atta(# ? "ut was a%%owed to !% the net da* ;e re&orted%was unsu((ess!u% in his atta(# on% "e(ause the re@uired !uses 'ot wet in the rain*

Reid a&&eared to have "etter trainin' than 4adi%%a) who "asi(a%% "e(ame a="%own a'ent> %e!t on his own " a% 9aeda* H1! he had mana'ed to &u%% o!! an atta(#)however) a% 9aeda wou%d not have (om&%ained*I 4erha&s more im&ortant%) Reid wasmore wi%%in' to die* 3es&ite these di!!eren(es) 4adi%%a and Reid !o%%owed a simi%ar &ath to a% 9aeda*1m&ressiona"%e oun' men) the !%irted with 1s%am in &rison and 'ravitated toward thosewith the stron'est (onvi(tions in their res&e(tive 1s%ami( (ommunities* A% 9aeda did notneed to see# out these estern mem"ers* The 'rou& sim&% moved them in a natura%&ro'ression throu'h the trainin' (am&s in A!'hanistan to se%e(tion as o&eratives*

'ack "oc,e* Aus+ral)a/s "eluc+a0+ 1)l)+a0+

Born in 85E as 4au% 2eor'e ;o%%and) Ja(# Ro(he.s (ase "ears simi%arities anddi!!eren(es to those o! 4adi%%a and Reid* For one) he was mu(h o%der u&on hisintrodu(tion to 1s%am* A native o! Britain) Ro(he dri!ted to 2erman and eventua%% toAustra%ia) where he o"tained (iti,enshi& in 8G* Thou'h he had !ew i! an &ro"%emswith the %aw) Ro(he was a heav drin#er* ;e (onverted to 1s%am in 8E as &art o! ane!!ort to ta(#%e his drin#in' &ro"%em*

As was the (ase with 4adi%%a and Reid) Ro(he turned to 1s%am to !i%% a void and 'eton a more =(orre(t> &ath* A%% three men &roved sus(e&ti"%e to eterna% in!%uen(es in theirnew!ound re%i'ion and %i!est%e*


9/218

From 8E to 85) Ro(he %ived in 1ndonesia) studin' 1s%am and tea(hin'0n'%ish as a se(ond %an'ua'e* ;e met A"du%%ah Sun'#ar ? (o-!ounder o! Jemaah1s%amiah HJ1I ? whi%e the %atter was visitin' a Sdne mos@ue in 86* Ro(he then"e'an to a!!i%iate with the more radi(a% 1s%amists and J1* 1n ear% 777) he trave%ed toA!'hanistan and Doined the Ta%i"an* Mohammad Ate! and other senior a% 9aeda mem"ers

as#ed him to esta"%ish an a% 9aeda (e%% in Austra%ia) where he (ou%d sta#e out the 1srae%i0m"ass and other &otentia% tar'ets*The use and de&%oment o! Ro(he then !e%% a&art) a&&arent% "e(ause o! s&%its

"etween and within J1 and a% 9aeda* Ro(he was sent to Ma%asia in Fe"ruar 777 tomeet with ;am"a%i) an o&erative !or "oth a% 9aeda and J1* ;am"a%i to%d Ro(he to &re&are!or a tri& to A!'hanistan where he wou%d meet a =shei#h*> Ro(he returned to Austra%ia)!%ew "a(# to Ma%asia a month %ater) and then went on to 4a#istan) where he was met "Kha%id Shei#h Mohammed* 1n A&ri%) Ro(he went to A!'hanistan) where he met Osama"in aden and undertoo# a two-wee# (ourse in e&%osives*

Ro(he.s re%ationshi& with J1 seems to have a((e%erated a% 9aeda.s de(ision to ta#ehim in as a &otentia% o&erative and (e%% %eader* ;e dis(ussed &ossi"%e tar'ets inside

Austra%ia with a% 9aeda %eaders) in(%udin' Mohammed Ate! and Kha%id Shei#hMohammed* Ro(he was 'iven more than LG)777 and was to%d to "e'in survei%%an(e onthe 1srae%i 0m"ass and other #e 1srae%i di&%omati( and e(onomi( tar'ets* ;owever)re&orts indi(ate his J1 hand%ers were a(tua%% more interested in the Sdne O%m&i(s*

A!ter em"ar#in' on the survei%%an(e wor# in June 777) Ro(he "e(amea&&rehensive a"out (arrin' out an a(tua% o&eration he was a%so e&erien(in' %itt%e %u(#in re(ruitin' new (e%% mem"ers* On Ju% 8) Ro(he &honed the Austra%ian Se(urit1nte%%i'en(e Or'ani,ation HAS1OI* ;e e&%ained his (onne(tion with "in aden andwarned that a J1 and a% 9aeda (e%% eisted in Austra%ia* Ro(he (a%%ed a'ain !ive das %ater)a!ter re(eivin' no res&onse to his !irst (a%%*

Re(o'ni,in' Ro(he.s 'rowin' re%u(tan(e) J1 ur'ed him Au'* G to (arr on with theo&eration* Two das %ater) Ro(he a'ain (a%%ed the AS1O* A'ain) he re(eived no res&onse*A !ew das %ater) J1 (a%%ed o!! the atta(# &%ans* Ro(he was %e!t on his own unti% his arrestmore than two ears %ater*

Thou'h Ro(he.s mission was eventua%% (a%%ed o!!) neither J1 nor a% 9aeda didanthin' ? aside !rom issuin' minor threats ? to ensure he never ta%#ed* For anor'ani,ation as se(urit (ons(ious as a% 9aeda) this seems an anoma%* 4erha&s the 'rou&wanted Ro(he to "e (au'ht as a means o! s&readin' !ear in Austra%ia* On the other hand)a% 9aeda mi'ht have had %itt%e (on(ern over his (a&ture a!ter a%%) AS1O !ai%ed to res&ondto his &hone (a%%s*

o..o0 De0o.)0a+ors

The (ommon denominators in these three (ases are not so(ioe(onomi( (onditionsor a'e* Rather) the are a &er(eived need !or "e%on'in' to somethin') a vu%nera"i%it andnaivete that %e!t the three men sus(e&ti"%e to radi(a% tea(hin's* Radi(a% white hate 'rou&sand other (u%ts a%so re(ruit mem"ers " ta&&in' into these #inds o! vu%nera"i%ities*

Thou'h man esterners (onvert to 1s%am) on% a sma%% num"er o! them areenti(ed " its radi(a% tea(hin's* A sti%% sma%%er num"er a(tua%% a(t on these tea(hin's)re(eivin' trainin' in &%a(es su(h as 4a#istan) A!'hanistan or 1ndonesia and transitionin'


10/218

!rom radi(a%ism to mi%itantism* Sti%% !ewer "e(ome a% 9aeda o&eratives ? a ste& thatre@uires denoun(in' one.s own nation in !avor o! a "roader ideo%o'*

A% 9aedas Communi(ations /etwor#Aug) 11, 200

The arrests o! severa% sus&e(ted a% 9aeda mem"ers and su&&orters in 4a#istan) the+nited Kin'dom) the +nited Ara" 0mirates and the southern +nited States o!!er asna&shot o! a s%iver o! a% 9aeda.s (ommand) (ontro% and (ommuni(ations networ#*

Cou&%ed with &revious in!ormation '%eaned !rom arrests) threats and su((ess!u%atta(#s) it revea%s an or'ani,ation with "oth a hi'h% (ontro%%in' (entra%i,ed (ore and a%eve% o! o&erationa% !reedom !or its re'iona% and %o(a% (ommanders* Centra% to itse!!e(tiveness in turnin' dee& strate'i( thin#in' at the (ore into ta(ti(a% o&erations on the'round is a series o! (ommuni(ation nodes ? &eo&%e &ri,ed not so mu(h !or their a"i%itto &%an) "ut !or their s#i%% with (om&uters*

The (ommuni(ations nodes are reservoirs o! in!ormation (o%%e(ted !rom !ar-!%un'

o&eratives via e-mai% or hand-de%ivered messa'es* The in!ormation is &ro(essed) storedand disseminated to other o&eratives or to the (ore a% 9aeda %eadershi&* Messa'es arede%ivered !rom the a% 9aeda (ore down the (hain o! (ommand to the re'iona% and %o(a%!ie%d (ommanders* hi%e there o!ten are severa% intermediar (ouriers) the(ommuni(ations nodes are the (entra% %in# "etween a strate'i( vision and a ta(ti(a%rea%it*

4a#istan.s arrest o! #e (ommuni(ations node Mohammad /aeem /oor Khan onJu% 8E o!!ered inte%%i'en(e a'en(ies a treasure-trove o! insi'ht not on% into a% 9aeda.s&otentia% &%ans and survei%%an(e methods) "ut a%so into the stru(ture o! at %east &art o! itsnetwor#* Khan.s (om&uter (arried a% 9aeda survei%%an(e re&orts and (onta(t in!ormation!or (ommanders ? whi(h 4a#istani and +*S* inte%%i'en(e a'en(ies e&%oited " en'a'in'

Khan in an o&eration to !%ush out these dis&arate (ommanders*Khan sent messa'es to %o(ations around the wor%d) sain' he had new in!ormation!rom a% 9aeda (entra% and was waitin' !or re&%ies* These &ro"es into the sstem)monitored (%ose% " 1nter-Servi(es 1nte%%i'en(e H1S1I and the C1A) %ed to the detentionso! "oth Ahmed Kha%!an 2hai%ani) a Tan,anian %in#ed to the +*S* 0m"ass "om"in's inA!ri(a) and to A"u 0isa a%-;indi) a re'iona% mi%itant (ommander in the +nited Kin'domand &ro"a"% the +nited States* Further &ro"es %i#e% revea%ed (%ues a"out the(ommuni(ations &aths and &erha&s &ointed to other re'iona% or %o(a% (ommanders*;owever) the reve%ation o! Khan.s arrest " +*S* &o%iti(ians a da a!ter the hei'htenedterrorist a%erts were issued !or /ew or#) /ew Jerse and ashin'ton) 3*C*) @ui(#%dried u& the !%ow o! in!ormation) !rustratin' the 1S1) the 4a#istani 'overnment and the

C1A* Khan &rovides an eam&%e o! the #ind o! (ommuni(ations networ# a% 9aeda hasesta"%ished ? and) undou"ted%) severa% other Khans are out there* The do notne(essari% #now the names or wherea"outs o! the (ommanders) or o! Osama "in adenor other to& a% 9aeda o!!i(ia%s) "ut are aware o! the &%ans and orders "ein' &assed "a(#and !orth*

2iven a% 9aeda.s &en(hant !or se(urit and !or redundan( o! o&erations) there%i#e% is over%a& in the !ie%d (ommanders on the (onta(t %ist o! ea(h o! these


11/218

(ommuni(ations nodes) whi(h a%%ows a stead !%ow o! dire(tions !rom the to& andin!ormation and inte%%i'en(e !rom the !ie%d even i! one node is (om&romised* As a "ui%t-in se(urit !eature) a% 9aeda !ie%d (ommanders and ta(ti(a% o&eratives !%ee or 'ounder'round when their %ine o! (ommuni(ation seems sus&e(t or dries u&* The do notstri#e with whatever &%an the mi'ht have "een &%ottin'*

This revea%s a (ertain %eve% o! (entra% (ontro% and a %a(# o! (%arit " the ta(ti(a%o&eratives a"out the ea(t nature o! a% 9aeda.s &%ans the train !or a (ertain t&e o!o&eration) the surve (ertain areas) "ut the ea(t timin') %o(ation and (oordination o!severa% (e%%s is done " a re'iona% or %o(a% !ie%d (ommander* This is done is su(h a wathat even i! one mi%itant or (e%% were "ro#en) it wou%d not ne(essari% Deo&ardi,e the entireo&eration*

This se(urit !eature a%so means that ea(h &erson in the (ommuni(ations and(ommand (hain mi'ht #now on% the true identit o! two or 87 other o&eratives* 1! oneo&erative is interro'ated) rather than 'ivin' u& the who%e networ#) he (an &rovide on% ane-mai% address or the names o! a !ew others ? thus de%ain' the unrave%in' o! a "roaderswath o! the networ#* 1! these (ommuni(ations %ines Dum& a(ross (ontinents whi%e arrests

ta#e &%a(e) other %in#s in that (hain wi%% "e "ro#en and new (ommuni(ations &aths wi%% "eesta"%ished*On(e a #e arrest has "een made &u"%i() or a series o! arrests ta#es &%a(e) a%% other

a% 9aeda o&eratives with (onne(tions to that %in# in the networ# 'o under'round) %eavin'investi'ators on% a short time to round u& a !ew others* That &art% e&%ains the suddendro& in detentions !o%%owin' the ra&id roundu& o! o&erationa% (e%%s in 4a#istan and the+nited Kin'dom*

The 4a#istani (e%% "ro#en " the in!ormation !rom Khan was nomina%% dire(ted" Ahmed Kha%!an 2hai%ani* 2hai%ani was one o! the FB1.s most-wanted a% 9aedao&eratives) a((used o! "ein' a #e &%anner and !a(i%itator in the 8G +*S* 0m"assatta(#s in Kena and Tan,ania* ;is hi'h &ro!i%e) however) %e!t him out o! the a% 9aedainner (ir(%e !or &%annin' ? thou'h he remains one o! the most %oa% to "in aden*1nstead) a!ter a stint raisin' !unds in A!ri(a) 2hai%ani had %ain %ow) ta#in' advanta'e o!the "road 1s%amist su&&ort networ# to move a"out and avoid (a&ture*

2hai%ani a&&arent% had two more re(ent ro%es in 4a#istan* First) he was senioradviser to %o(a% a% 9aeda mi%itants and o&erationa% (ommanders in the (am&ai'n a'ainst4a#istani 4resident 2en* 4erve, Musharra! and his re'ime* ;e a%so was as a #e re(ruiter!or a% 9aeda mem"ers !rom A!ri(a*

A"u 0isa a%-;indi) however) is a mu(h more a(tive o&erationa% (ommander)simi%ar in ro%e to Mohammad Atta) who (oordinated the !ina% sta'es o! the Se&t* 88atta(#s* A%-;indi was most re(ent% "ased in the +nited Kin'dom) "ut has trave%ed to the+nited States) and %i#e Atta &ro"a"% had o&erationa% (ontro% over severa% (e%%s on "othsides o! the At%anti(* A%-;indi (oordinated and &arti(i&ated in the survei%%an(e o! #e+*S* "ui%din's) trave%in' to the +nited States at %east on(e in 778* On(e the in!ormationwas (o%%e(ted) the !ina% survei%%an(e dossiers wou%d have "een transmitted) throu'h Khan)"a(# to the (ore a% 9aeda %eadershi&) where a strate'i( assessment o! the &ossi"%e ta(ti(a%tar'ets (ou%d "e (ondu(ted* Further survei%%an(e ? or atta(# &%annin' ? was thentransmitted "a(# throu'h Khan or another (ommuni(ations node to a%-;indi*

A%thou'h a%-;indi.s Au'* arrest a%so na""ed severa% sus&e(ted a% 9aedamem"ers in 0n'%and) it thus !ar has !ai%ed to turn u& an maDor o&eratives inside the


12/218

+nited States* 1n !a(t) thou'h he a%%e'ed% sent at %east si messa'es to +*S*-"asedo&eratives or (ommanders durin' the !%ushin' o&eration) none has %ed to +*S* arrests)thou'h a !ew &eo&%e mi'ht now "e under survei%%an(e* On(e Khan.s arrest "e(ame &u"%i(#now%ed'e) these o&eratives and (ommanders undou"ted% dro&&ed o!! the radar s(reen)and inte%%i'en(e o!!i(ia%s have said the 'enera% "a(#'round =(hatter> o! a% 9aeda

mem"ers !e%% &re(i&itous% with word o! Khan.s detention*2iven that a% 9aeda o&eratives have entered the +nited States at %east a ear inadvan(e o! an &otentia% atta(#) the !a(t that this &arti(u%ar (ommuni(ations %in# has "een"ro#en does not ne(essari% &re(%ude an o&eration a%read in its !ina% sta'es* Atta) !oream&%e) entered the +nited States on June E) 777) and eited and re-entered the (ountrsevera% times) meetin' with other a% 9aeda o&eratives a%% over the wor%d* O!!i(ia%s #nowKhan was in (onta(t with severa% &eo&%e in the +nited States and around the wor%d ? "uttheir identities and ea(t %o(ations remain un#nown*

A% 9aeda a%most de!inite% has do,ens o! =s%ee&er a'ents> inside the +nited States? the &ro"a"% have "een in the (ountr !or ears) waitin' to "e (a%%ed u&* On% when a(e%% %eader moves into the (ountr and "e'ins (onta(tin' these s%ee&ers wi%% the %earn o!

their mission and its detai%s* 1t mi'ht never "e #nown !or sure whether a%-;indi.s arresthas thwarted a maDor o&eration*+%timate%) Khan.s detention has o!!ered use!u% insi'hts into the interna% wor#in's

o! a% 9aeda* First) there are innumera"%e %aers o! (ommand) (ontro% and (ommuni(ationinside a% 9aeda) o"!us(atin' the true ori'in and end-&oint o! messa'es and (on(ea%in' theidentities o! o&eratives* There are %owest-%eve%) 'runt-wor# o&eratives) mid-%eve% dire(torsand senior &%anners* There a%so are !und-raisers) (ommuni(ations &eo&%e and de%ivermenwho on% (arr messa'es*

Se(ond) the sender a%most never de%ivers A% 9aeda messa'es to the end re(i&ient*A &ie(e o! &a&er written in (ode (ou%d trave% !rom ahore) 4a#istan) to +A0 to Britain tothe +nited States) (arried " a di!!erent &erson on ea(h %e'* Survei%%an(e done " ano&erative at a as Ne'as (asino mi'ht "e e-mai%ed to an o&erative in /i'eria) who!orwards it to an a((ount "ased in emen) who !orwards it to an a((ount in 4a#istan*A'ain) the &ur&ose is to (on(ea% and) in (ase o! dete(tion or &enetration) se(ure thenetwor#*

But it a%so means a% 9aeda is rather re%iant on its #e (ommuni(ations nodes !orra&id and e!!i(ient dissemination o! in!ormation and orders* The dete(tion and disa"%in'o! these nodes) even without a su"se@uent o&eration to !%ush out their (onta(ts) (an (ausea serious disru&tion in a% 9aeda.s (a&a"i%ities* ith the (urrent o&eratin' &aradi'm "ein'to 'o under'round i! a "rea(h in the networ# is "e%ieved) the (a&ture o! (ommuni(ations&eo&%e mi'ht "e the most e!!e(tive wa o! underminin' a% 9aeda.s o&erationa%(a&a"i%ities ? sh o! the (a&ture o! "in aden himse%!*


13/218

A% 9aeda and the Threat o! Chemi(a% and Bio%o'i(a% ea&ons5ec) , 200

A &am&h%et &u"%ished on the C1A.s e" site sas a% 9aeda do(uments (a&tured inA!'hanistan indi(ate that the networ# &ossesses (rude &ro(edures !or &rodu(in' N

nerve a'ent) sarin and mustard 'as* 1n %i'ht o! this in!ormation) the mainstream mediare(ent% have !o(used on the &ossi"i%it that a% 9aeda wi%% use (hemi(a% andPor "io%o'i(a%wea&ons HCBsI a'ainst the +nited States and +*S* interests a"road*

The Ameri(an &u"%i( has "een "esie'ed with warnin's a"out a% 9aeda and itsCB &ro'ram sin(e short% a!ter the +nited States %aun(hed a 8G (ruise missi%e atta(#a'ainst Sudan.s Shi!a &harma(euti(a% !a(tor) whi(h ashin'ton said was a terrorist-re%ated !a(i%it* STRATFOR a%so has written a"out the dan'er &osed " terrorists usin'(hemi(a% or "io%o'i(a% wea&ons on more than one o((asion* A%thou'h these warnin's arenot without !oundation) STRATFOR "e%ieves a% 9aeda is neither (a&a"%e o! &rodu(in'mass @uantities o! dead% a'ents nor does it have the means to e!!e(tive% dis&ense them*

e #now !rom the 778 (ourt testimon o! Ahmed Ressam ? the A%'erian

nationa% who &%otted to "%ow u& os An'e%es 1nternationa% Air&ort ? that a% 9aedamem"ers (ondu(ted e&eriments usin' (anide and other toins to #i%% do's at the3eronta trainin' (am& in A!'hanistan* Nideos re(overed " +*S* troo&s a!ter the invasiono! A!'hanistan su&&orted this testimon and) as noted " the C1A) sei,ed a% 9aedatrainin' manua%s have in(%uded re(i&es !or ma#in' "io%o'i(a% toins and (hemi(a% a'ents*Re(i&es !or &rodu(in' toins su(h as ri(in are a%so readi% avai%a"%e on the 1nternet*

The in!ormation a"out a% 9aeda.s e&eriments with (hemi(a% wea&ons shou%d(ome as no sur&rise* 1n an interview aired on ABC /ews in 3e(em"er 8G) Osama "inaden said) =1! 1 have indeed a(@uired these wea&ons) then this is an o"%i'ation 1 (arriedout) and 1 than# 2od !or ena"%in' me to do so*>

The eviden(e is (%ear: a% 9aeda does &ossess the (a&a"i%it to ma#e and use (rude

(hemi(a% and "io%o'i(a% wea&ons* ;owever) des&ite the !ear that these su"stan(esen'ender) the o!ten are @uite ine!!e(tive as wea&ons* An eamination o! Ja&anesea&o(a%&ti( (u%t Aum Shinri#o.s CB &ro'ram &rovides some im&ortant insi'ht intothese wea&ons and the (ost and %imitations o! su(h sstems* A((ordin' to testimon in the tria%s o! Aum Shinri#o %eaders) the 'rou&(ondu(ted 8 #nown CB atta(#s or attem&ted atta(#s "etween 87 and 85) 87 o!them usin' (hemi(a% a'ents H!our with sarin) !our with N) one with &hos'ene and onewith sodium (anideI) and seven usin' "io%o'i(a% a'ents H!our with anthra and threewith "otu%inum toinI* The Ja&anese 'overnment !urther sus&e(ts Aum Shinri#o inanother 8E atta(#s that remain unso%ved* The 'rou& a%so re&orted% #i%%ed severa%dissident mem"ers usin' N nerve a'ent*

1n(%uded amon' Aum Shinri#o.s atta(#s were severa% %ar'e-s(a%e o&erations* Foream&%e) in A&ri% o! 87) the 'rou& used a !%eet o! three tru(#s e@ui&&ed with aeroso%s&raers to re%ease %i@uid "otu%inum toin on the 1m&eria% 4a%a(e) the 3iet and the +*S*0m"ass in To#o) and two +*S* nava% "ases and the air&ort in /arita*

Between June and Au'ust o! 8E) the 'rou& s&raed thousands o! 'a%%ons o!%i@uid anthra in To#o* 1t used s&raers mounted on the roo! o! their head@uarters ontwo o((asions) and it a%so (ondu(ted two atta(#s with s&raer tru(#s) one a'ainst the 3ietand the other a'ainst the 1m&eria% 4a%a(e and the To#o Tower*
http://www.stratfor.com/Story.neo?storyId=232451http://www.stratfor.com/Story.neo?storyId=232451


14/218

1n June o! 8) Aum Shinri#o used a van e@ui&&ed with a sarin dis&enser toattem&t to #i%% three Dud'es hearin' a (ase a'ainst the 'rou&* The Dud'es) who a%% %ived inthe same dormitor) survived the atta(# when the wind "%ew the sarin awa !rom the"ui%din') "ut seven &eo&%e in the nei'h"orhood were #i%%ed* Aum Shinri#o.s most su((ess!u% atta(# was in Mar(h 85) when mem"ers o!

the 'rou& &un(tured 88 sarin-!i%%ed &%asti( "a's on !ive di!!erent su"wa trains) #i%%in' 8&eo&%e*Aum Shinri#o.s team o! hi'h% trained s(ientists wor#ed under idea% (onditions

in a !irst-wor%d (ountr with a virtua%% un%imited "ud'et* The team wor#ed in %ar'e)modern !a(i%ities to &rodu(e su"stantia% @uantities o! (hemi(a% and "io%o'i(a% wea&ons*3es&ite the mi%%ions o! do%%ars the 'rou& s&ent on its CB &ro'ram) however) it sti%%!a(ed &ro"%ems in (reatin' viru%ent "io%o'i(a% a'ents) and it a%so !ound it di!!i(u%t todis&ense those a'ents in an e!!e(tive manner* Be(ause o! these &ro"%ems) the mi%itantssu((eeded in #i%%in' on% a hand!u% o! &eo&%e) and the did not (ause the '%o"a%Arma'eddon the endeavored to (reate* Aum Shinri#o.s eam&%e shows us that (reatin' and dis&ensin' (hemi(a% and

"io%o'i(a% a'ents e!!e(tive% on a %ar'e s(a%e sim&% is not as eas as some wou%d have us"e%ieve*The Mar(h train "om"in's in Madrid &rovide an interestin' (om&arison to the

85 su"wa atta(#s* 1n man was) the atta(#s were simi%ar: "oth 'rou&s &%a(edmu%ti&%e devi(es in the (ommuter train sstem and intended to (reate maimum(asua%ties* ;owever) the (onventiona% im&rovised e&%osive devi(e used in Madrid isestimated to have (ost on% L87)777to manu!a(ture ?on% a sma%% !ra(tion o! what it(ost Aum Shinri#o to deve%o& its CB &ro'ram* et) des&ite the 'reat dis&arit in (ost)the To#o su"wa atta(# #i%%ed 8) and the Madrid "om"in's #i%%ed 88* A% 9aeda has a histor o! attem&tin' to (ommit s&e(ta(u%ar terrorist atta(#s*Sometimes the have su((eeded* As STRATFOR has ar'ued) a% 9aeda is undertremendous &ressureto (ommit another atta(# ? and a s&e(ta(u%ar one at that* As theAum Shinri#o and the &ost-Se&t* 88 anthra-%etter (ases in the +nited States &roved)(hemi(a% and "io%o'i(a% wea&ons do (ause a %ot o! &ani() "ut when em&%oed in %imited@uantities the wi%% not (reate the num"er o! (asua%ties that a% 9aeda is see#in'*

Sin(e the Se&t* 88 atta(#s) the +nited States and its a%%ies have a(tive% &ursued a%9aeda* The networ# has had mi%%ions o! do%%ars o! its assets sei,ed in a num"er o!(ountries) and it no %on'er has the sa!e haven o! A!'hanistan !rom whi(h to o&erate* 1nother words) is in a ver di!!erent &%a(e or'ani,ationa%% than was Aum Shinri#o durin'the 87s* A% 9aeda (annot easi% "ui%d %ar'e modern !a(tories (a&a"%e o! &rodu(in'thousands o! 'a%%ons o! a'ents or toins* 1t (ertain% (an (reate sma%% @uantities o! these(om&ounds) "ut not enou'h to wrea# the #ind o! dama'e it desires* O! (ourse) we aredis(ussin' a% 9aeda &rime) and not the %ar'er Dihadist universe* 1nde&endent (e%%s and%one wo%ves wi%% a%most (ertain% attem&t to "rew some o! the re(i&es in the a% 9aeda(oo#"oo#*

STRATFOR "e%ieves that the a% 9aeda networ# intends to (ondu(t anotherterrorist s&e(ta(u%ar ? and wi%% do so i! and when it (an* e a%so "e%ieve that it is !armore %i#e% to uti%i,e (onventiona% e&%osives ? with or without a radio%o'i(a% #i(#er ?than the N) sarin and mustard 'as mentioned in the C1A &am&h%et*
http://www.stratfor.com/Story.neo?storyId=99990058http://www.stratfor.com/Story.neo?storyId=234804http://www.stratfor.com/Story.neo?storyId=99990058http://www.stratfor.com/Story.neo?storyId=234804


15/218

A% 9aedas 2%o"a% Cam&ai'n: Tet O!!ensive or Batt%e o! the Bu%'e order

to (arr out a stri#e* 2overnment-run inte%%i'en(e a'en(ies have sus&e(ted the same) andM15 a(tua%% identi!ied a &ossi"%e 'host) named on a terrorism wat(h %ist) who enteredand %e!t Britain short% "e!ore the Ju% atta(#s* et the a'en( a%so si'na%ed) threewee#s &rior to the event) that there were =no #nown threats> to wor%d %eaders who wou%d"e attendin' the 2-G summit in S(ot%and at that time* C%ear%) the inte%%i'en(e &u,,%e isnot et (om&%ete*

The inte%%i'en(e di%emmas and !ai%ures are ma'ni!ied at the !oot-so%dier %eve%*A'ain) usin' the ondon (ase as an eam&%e) (onsider that Khan and &ossi"% othermem"ers o! his (e%% had "een investi'ated ? and then dismissed as &otentia% threats ?&rior to the atta(#s* This ana%sis mi'ht have "een wron' on its !a(e or utter% (orre(t atthe time ? "ut the threat is no more stati( than human "ein's themse%ves*

At its sim&%est %eve%) the di%emma is mathemati(a%: There are too man &otentia%tar'ets) whi(h (ost too mu(h to !u%% de!end) with too !ew 'overnment resour(es) a'ainsttoo %ar'e a universe o! &otentia% a(tors ? the "ottom tier o! the &ramid* ithoutsi'ni!i(ant he%& !rom human inte%%i'en(e sour(es ? and a 'reat dea% o! %u(# ? it is a%%"ut im&ossi"%e to &revent some !orms o! terrorist atta(#s Heem&%i!ied " ondonI* The"est an 'overnment inte%%i'en(e or se(urit !or(e (an do is to de!end the hi'hest-va%uetar'ets and ta#e &ains to miti'ate) rather than &revent) the dama'e or %oss o! %i!ee%sewhere*

1nte%%i'en(e !ai%ures o((ur !or a variet o! reasons "ut a%most a%was "oi% down toa %a(# o! ta(ti(a% ana%sis) %a(# o! humint needed to deve%o& su!!i(ient detai% to thwart anatta(#) and !ai%ure to identi! and &enetrate terrorist (e%%s ? a'ain) due to a dearth o!a(tiona"%e in!ormation*

/ationa% and internationa% se(urit a'en(ies (an "e e&e(ted to (ontinue !o(usin'e!!orts a'ainst the hi'h-va%ue 'hosts who haunt the midd%e tier o! a% 9aeda.s stru(ture)"ut even a (om&%ete ru&ture o! strate'i( (ommuni(ations "etween the a&e and "ottomtier o! the &ramid wou%d not) in our view) &ut an end to the wider war at the ta(ti(a%%eve%* For that) the #e is 'oin' to "e nothin' more ? and nothin' %ess ? than o%d-!ashioned (oo&eration and human inte%%i'en(e at the 'rassroots %eve%*


22/218


23/218

There have "een no !o%%ow-on atta(#s in the +nited States sin(e Se&t* 88* hether

this is "e(ause a% 9aeda had no &%ans !or a se(ond atta(# or "e(ause su"se@uentatta(#s were disru&ted " +*S* inte%%i'en(e is not (%ear*

This is not intended to "e an ehaustive %ist) "ut rather to &rovide what we wou%d

re'ard as a non-(ontroversia% "ase !rom whi(h to &ro(eed with an assessment*From the "e'innin') then) it has "een un(%ear whether the +nited States saw itse%!

as !i'htin' a war a'ainst a% 9aeda or as (arrin' out a (rimina% investi'ation* The twoare) o! (ourse) enormous% di!!erent* This is a (riti(a% &ro"%em*

The administration.s use o! the term =war on terrorism> "e'an the (on!usion*Terrorism is a mode o! war!are* Save !or those instan(es when %unati(s %i#e TimothM(Nei'h use it as an end in itse%!) terrorism is a method o! intimidatin' the (ivi%ian&o&u%ation in order to drive a wed'e "etween the &u"%i( and their 'overnment* A% 9aeda)then) had a &o%iti(a% &ur&ose in usin' terrorism) as did the British in their ni'httime"om"in' o! 2erman or the 2ermans in their air raids a'ainst ondon* The &ro"%em inthe Bush administration.s use o! this term is that ou do not wa'e a war a'ainst a method

o! war!are* A war is wa'ed a'ainst an enem !or(e*/ow) there are those who ar'ue that war is somethin' that ta#es &%a(e "etweennation-states and that a% 9aeda) not "ein' a nation-state) is not wa'in' war* e tend todisa'ree with this view* A% 9aeda is not a nation-state) "ut it was a (oherent) dis(i&%ined!or(e usin' vio%en(e !or &o%iti(a% ends* The +nited States) " !o(usin' on the =war onterror)> (on!used the issue end%ess%* But the (riti(s o! the war) who insisted that wartimemeasures were unne(essar "e(ause this was not a war) (om&ounded the (on!usion* Bthe time we were done) the =war on terror> had etended itse%! to in(%ude (am&ai'nsa'ainst anima% ri'hts 'rou&s) and attem&ts to &revent terror atta(#s were seen asvio%ations o! human ri'hts " the AC+*

1t is odd to raise these &oints at the "e'innin' o! an ana%sis o! a war) "ut no war

(an "e !ou'ht when there isn.t even (%arit a"out what it is ou are doin') %et a%one whoou are !i'htin'* et that is &re(ise% how this war evo%ved) and then de'enerated into(on(e&tua% (haos* The who%e issue a%so 'ot "ound u& with interna% name-(a%%in') to the&oint that an assertion that Bush had some idea o! what he was doin' was seen asoutra'eous &artisanshi&) and the assertion that Bush was !ai%in' in what he was doin' wasviewed the same wa* here there is no (%arit) there (an "e no (riteria !or su((ess or!ai%ure* That is the (risis toda* /o one a'rees as to what is ha&&enin' there!ore) no one(an e&%ain who is winnin' or %osin'*

Out o! this situation (ame the dee&er (on!usion: 1ra@* From the "e'innin') it wasnot (%ear wh the +nited States invaded 1ra@* The Bush administration o!!ered threee&%anations: First) that there were wea&ons o! mass destru(tion in 1ra@ se(ond) that 1ra@

was (om&%i(it with a% 9aeda and !ina%%) that a demo(rati( 1ra@ ? and (reation o! ademo(rati( Mus%im wor%d ? wou%d he%& to sto& terrorism Hor more &re(ise%) a% 9aedaI*The three e&%anations were untena"%e on their !a(e* Contrar to mth) the Bush

administration did not rush to 'o to war in 1ra@* The administration had "een ta%#in'a"out it !or near% a ear "e!ore the invasion "e'an* That wou%d not have "een the (ase i!there tru% was a !ear that the 1ra@is mi'ht "e (a&a"%e o! "ui%din' atomi( "om"s) sin(ethe mi'ht hurr u& and "ui%d them* ou don.t 'ive a heads-u& in that situation* The+nited States did* ;en(e) it wasn.t a"out M3* Se(ond) it wasn.t a"out [email protected] terrorist


24/218

ties* Saddam ;ussein had no &ro"%em with the (on(e&t o! terrorism) "ut he was anideo%o'i(a% enem o! everthin' "in aden stood !or* ;ussein was a se(u%ar mi%itarist "inaden) a re%i'ious ideo%o'ue* Coo&eration "etween them wasn.t %i#e%) and &ointin' too"s(ure meetin's that Mohammed Atta ma or ma not have had with an 1ra@i in 4ra'uedidn.t ma#e the (ase* Fina%%) the demo(ra( e&%anation (ame %ate in the 'ame* Bush had

(am&ai'ned a'ainst nation-"ui%din' in &%a(es %i#e Kosovo ? and i! he now "e%ieved innation-"ui%din' as a Dusti!i(ation !or war) it meant he stood with Bi%% C%inton* ;e dod'edthat (riti(ism) thou'h) "e(ause the media (ou%dn.t remem"er Kosovo or s&e%% it anmore" the time 1ra@ ro%%ed around*

Bush.s enemies ar'ued that he invaded 1ra@ in order to HaI aven'e the !a(t that;ussein had tried to #i%% his !ather H"I as &art o! a %on'-term strate' &%anned ears"e!ore to dominate the Midd%e 0ast H(I to dominate a%% o! the oi% in 1ra@ HdI "e(ause hewas a "ad man or HeI Dust "e(ause* The !a(t was that his (riti(s had no idea wh he did itand 'enerated !antasti( theories "e(ause the (ou%dn.t !i'ure it out an more than Bush(ou%d e&%ain it*

STRATFOR readers #now our view was that the invasion o! 1ra@ was intended to

serve three &ur&oses:

To "rin' &ressure on the Saudi 'overnment) whi(h was a%%owin' Saudis to !unne%

mone to a% 9aeda) to ha%t this ena"%ement and to (oo&erate with +*S*inte%%i'en(e* The &resen(e o! +*S* troo&s to the north o! Saudi Ara"ia wasintended to drive home the seriousness o! the situation*

To ta#e (ontro% o! the most strate'i( (ountr in the Midd%e 0ast ? 1ra@ "orders

seven (riti(a% (ountries ? and to use it as a "ase o! o&erations a'ainst other(ountries that were (oo&eratin' with a% 9aeda*

To demonstrate in the Mus%im wor%d that the Ameri(an re&utation !or wea#ness

and inde(isiveness ? we%%-earned in the two de(ades &rior to the Se&t* 88 atta(#s

? was no %on'er va%id* The +nited States was aware that the invasion o! 1ra@wou%d enra'e the Mus%im wor%d) "ut "an#ed on it a%so !ri'htenin' them*

et.s &ut it this wa: The #e to understandin' the situation was that Bush wantedto "%a(#mai% the Saudis) use 1ra@ as a mi%itar "ase and terri! Mus%ims* ;e wanted to dothis) "ut he did not want to admit this was what he was doin'* ;e there!ore &rovidedim&%ausi"%e Dusti!i(ations) o&eratin' under the theor that a ra&id vi(tor "rushes asidetrou"%in' @uestions* C%inton had 'otten out o! Kosovo without e&%ainin' wh si'ns o!'eno(ide were never !ound) "e(ause the war was over @ui(#% and everone was si(# o!it* Bush !i'ured he wou%d do the same thin' in 1ra@*

1t was &re(ise% at this &oint that the situation 'ot out o! (ontro%* The "i''est

inte%%i'en(e !ai%ure o! the +nited States was not -88 ? on% Monda mornin'@uarter"a(#s (an (%aim that the wou%d have s&otted a% 9aeda.s &%ot and "een a"%e to"%o(# it* /or was the !ai%ure to !ind M3 in 1ra@* /ot on% was that not the &oint) "uta(tua%%) everone was (ertain that ;ussein at %east had (hemi(a% wea&ons* 0ven theFren(h "e%ieved he did* The "i''est mista#e was the inte%%i'en(e that said that the 1ra@iswou%dn.t !i'ht) that +*S* !or(es wou%d "e we%(omed or at %east not 'reeted hosti%e% "the 1ra@i &u"%i() and that the end o! the (onventiona% (om"at wou%d end the war*


25/218

That was the rea%% si'ni!i(ant inte%%i'en(e !ai%ure* ;ussein) or at %east some o! his#e (ommanders) had &re&ared !or a &rotra(ted 'uerri%%a war* The #new &er!e(t% we%%that the +nited States wou%d (rush their (onventiona% !or(es) so the (reated the materia%and !inan(ia% "asis !or a &rotra(ted 'uerri%%a war* +*S* inte%%i'en(e did not see this(omin') and thus had not &re&ared the +*S* !or(e !or !i'htin' the 'uerri%%a war* 1ndeed) i!

the had #nown this was (omin') Bush mi'ht we%% have (a%(u%ated di!!erent% oninvadin' 1ra@ ? sin(e he wasn.t 'oin' to 'et the de(isive vi(tor he needed*The inte%%i'en(e !ai%ure was (om&ounded " a (ommand !ai%ure* B mid-A&ri%

77E) it was evident to STRATFOR that a 'uerri%%a warwas startin'* 3ona%d Rums!e%d(ontinued vi'orous% to den that an su(h warwas 'oin' on* 1t was not unti% Ju%) when2en* Tomm Fran#s was re%ieved " John A"i,aid as Centra% Command (hie!) that the+nited States admitted the o"vious* Those were the 5-67 (riti(a% das* 1nte%%i'en(e!ai%ures ha&&en in ever war) worse than this one) "ut the de%a in re(o'ni,in' what washa&&enin' ? the etended denia% in the 4enta'on ? e%iminated an (han(e o! ni&&in' itin the "ud* B the summer o! 77E) the war was ra'in') and !orei'n Dihadists had "e'unDoinin' in* O"vious% this in(reased anti-Ameri(an sentiment) "ut not ne(essari%

e!!e(tive anti-Ameri(an sentiment* ;atin' the +nited States is not the same as "ein' a"%eto run se(ure (overt o&erations in the +nited States*The war did not and does not (over most o! [email protected] territor* On% a re%ative%

sma%% &ortion is invo%ved ? the Sunni re'ions* At this &oint) the administration has donea !air% 'ood Do" in (reatin' a &o%iti(a% &ro(ess and "rin'in' the Sunni e%ders to the ta"%e)i! not to an a'reement that wi%% end the insur'en(* But the &ro"%em is that Ameri(ane&e(tations a"out the war have "een so stran'e% set that whatever esoteri( satis!a(tione&erts mi'ht ta#e in the evo%ution) it is (%ear that this war is not what the Bushadministration e&e(ted) that it is not what the administration was &re&ared to !i'ht) andthat the administration is now in a &osition where it has to ma#e (om&romises rather thanim&ose its wi%%*

e "e%ieve that a war started on Se&t* 88) 778* e "e%ieve that !rom a stri(t%o&erationa% &oint o! view) a% 9aeda has 'otten " !ar the worst o! it* ;avin' stru(# the!irst "%ow) a% 9aeda has "een (ri&&%ed) with ea(h su((eedin' atta(# wea#er and wea#er*e a%so thin# that the +*S* invasion o! 1ra@ a(hieved at %east one o! ashin'ton.s 'oa%s:Saudi Ara"ia has "ehaved mu(h di!!erent% sin(e Fe"ruar 77E* But the on'oin' war hasundermined the a"i%it o! the +nited States to use 1ra@ as a "ase o! o&erations in there'ion) and the &s(ho%o'i(a% out(ome ashin'ton was ho&in' !or o"vious% didn.tmateria%i,e*

hat &ro'ress there has "een is invisi"%e) !or two reasons* First) the Bushadministration had (ra!ted an e&%anation !or the entire war that was "ased on two&remises ? !irst) that the Ameri(an &u"%i( wou%d remain united on a%% measuresne(essar a!ter Se&t* 88) and se(ond) that the +nited States wou%d a(hieve a @ui(# vi(torin 1ra@) s&arin' the administration the need to e&%ain itse%!* As a resu%t) Bush has neverarti(u%ated a (oherent strate'i( &osition* Furthermore) as the se(ond &remise &roveduntrue) the !ai%ure to enun(iate a (oherent strate'i( vision "e'an to undermine the !irst&remise ? nationa% unit* At this &oint) Bush is "e'innin' to !a(e (riti(ism in his own&art* Sen* Chu(# ;a'e%.s statement) that the &romise to sta the (ourse does not(onstitute a strate') is indi(ative o! Bush.s maDor &ro"%em*


26/218

The &resident.s di%emma) now) is this* ;e had a strate'* ;e !ai%ed to e&%ain whatit was "e(ause doin' so wou%d have (arried a (ost) and the &resident assumed it wasunne(essar* 1t turned out to "e ne(essar) "ut he sti%% didn.t enun(iate a strate' "e(auseit wou%d at that &oint have a&&eared (ontrived* Moreover) as time went on) the strate'had to evo%ve* 1t is hard to evo%ve an unarti(u%ated strate'* Bush ri'idi!ied &u"%i(% even

as his strate' in 1ra@ "e(ame more nim"%e*Fi'urin' out how the war is 'oin' !our ears a!ter -88) then) is %i#e a ni'htmare!i'htin' 'hosts* The &re&osterous de!ense o! +*S* strate' meets the &re&osterous atta(#on +*S* strate': C%aims that the +nited States invaded 1ra@ to "rin' demo(ra( to the&eo&%e (om&etes with the idea that it invaded in order to 'ive (ontra(ts to ;a%%i"urton*/othin' is too &re&osterous to (%aim*

But even as +*S* &o%iti(s sei,e u& in one o! these &eriodi( s&asms) these !a(ts aresti%% (%ear:

The +nited States has not "een atta(#ed in !our ears*

/o Mus%im 'overnment has !a%%en to su&&orters o! a% 9aeda*

The +nited States has won in neither 1ra@ nor A!'hanistan* Bin aden is sti%% !ree and read to 'o etra rounds*

So !ar) neither side has won ? "ut on the who%e) we.d sa the +nited States hasthe ed'e* The war is "ein' !ou'ht outside the +nited States* And that is not a trivia% &oint*But it is not et a so%ution to the &resident.s &ro"%ems*


27/218

A% 9aedas Conne(tion to the ondon Bom"ers

Sept) 21, 200

British &o%i(e re%eased survei%%an(e !oota'e Se&t* 7 that the sa showsMohammad Sidi@ue Khan) Sheh,ad Tanweer and 2ermaine indsa (ondu(tin' a drrun in &re&aration !or the Ju% ondon "om"in's* The ta&e) re(orded June G) showsthe three men enterin' uton station "e!ore trave%in' to Kin'.s Cross station ? the sameroutes the too# Ju% *

Citin' a %a(# o! a dire(t !orensi( %in# "etween the "om"ers and #nown a% 9aedao&eratives) some in the inte%%i'en(e and %aw en!or(ement (ommunit have su''ested thatthe +nder'round "om"ers were not (onne(ted to a% 9aeda and that) " (%aimin'res&onsi"i%it !or the atta(#) de&ut a% 9aeda %eader Aman a%-awahiri attem&ted to 'ive

the networ# undue (redit* A%thou'h the !our "om"ers !air% (ertain% had no dire(t(onne(tion to the hi'her-%eve% a% 9aeda %eadershi&) the methods used in the atta(# su''estthat it was an a% 9aeda o&eration and san(tioned " the networ#.s %eadershi&*

The !a(t that a rehearsa% did ta#e &%a(e "e!ore the a(tua% atta(# demonstrates thatthe o&eratives were not (om&%ete novi(es ? as some a%so have su''ested ? "ut that thesome de'ree o! trainin' and or'ani,ation* Moreover) sta'in' a &ra(ti(e run is (onsistentwith the #ind o! meti(u%ous &%annin' that has (hara(teri,ed %ar'e-s(a%e a% 9aedao&erations* Simi%ar dr runs and &re-o&erationa% survei%%an(e were (arried out "e!ore theAu'ust 8G "om"in's o! the +*S* 0m"assies in Kena and Tan,ania) and the Se&t* 88atta(#s* The "om"in' o! 4hi%i&&ine Air%ines !%i'ht E in 3e(em"er 8 a%so was a drrun !or a more am"itious a% 9aeda o&eration (odenamed =BoDin#o> ? a &%an to "om"

mu%ti&%e air&%anes simu%taneous% over the 4a(i!i( O(ean*Khan) the a%%e'ed %eader o! the Ju% "om"ers) made a videota&e "e!ore theo&eration in whi(h he e&%ains his motivation !or (arrin' out the atta(#* Khan &ossi"%made his statement whi%e in 4a#istan) where he is a%%e'ed to have trave%ed in 77 tomeet with a% 9aeda o&eratives* A se(ond se'ment o! the same ta&e (ontained an a%-awahiri statement in whi(h he &raised the atta(#) "ut sto&&ed short o! (%aimin' (redit ?&ossi"% "e(ause it had not et ha&&ened* A%-awahiri.s &resen(e on the Khan ta&e)whi(h Ara" sate%%ite te%evision A% Ja,eera aired Se&t* 8) is another %in# "etween the Ju% atta(# and the a% 9aeda %eadershi& ? a%thou'h it shou%d "e noted that the two nevera&&ear to'ether in the ta&e* 1n addition) a%-awahiri has a&&eared in two other ta&es inwhi(h he s&ea#s o! the ondon "om"in's* 1n the %atest one) re%eased Se&t* 8) he (%ear%

(%aims res&onsi"i%it !or the atta(#s on "eha%! o! a% 9aeda ? somethin' the Dihadistnetwor# rare% does*An a% 9aeda o&eration as im&ortant as an atta(# a'ainst a estern (a&ita%

(ertain% wou%d have the !ore#now%ed'e and "%essin' o! the networ#.s hi'hest %eadershi&*0ven thou'h the %eaders #new o! and endorsed the o&eration) however) the wou%d notne(essari% have had dire(t (onta(t with the o&eratives who (arried out the atta(#* The%i#e% re(eived re&orts on the &ro'ress o! the o&eration and issued orders to at %east onemid-%eve% o&erative or ta(ti(a% (ommander) who in turn su&ervised and hand%ed the


28/218


29/218

A% 9aeda: From Or'ani,ation to Movement Rather) it is the &rodu(t o! two #e e%ements: a dai% sear(h !ordeve%o&ments that either !it with the on'oin' &i(ture Hor anoma%ies that resha&e itI and anunderstandin' o! time) as viewed " the re'ion or a(tor "ein' assessed* And these viewsvar dramati(a%%* 1t (ou%d "e ar'ued) !or eam&%e) that an Ameri(an.s sense o! histori(a%((%es ? whi(h have "een (rammed into a nationa% histor that s(ar(e% e(eeds 77ears ? is vast% di!!erent !rom that o! the Chinese) whose (ivi%i,ation s&ans ami%%ennium*

e a&&% this same &ers&e(tive to a% 9aeda and to attem&ts to understand the(urrent statuso! what the Bush administration has %a"e%ed the ='%o"a% war on terrorism*>2iven the unusua% nature o! this =war> a'ainst a non-state a(tor) there is &%ent o! room

!or de"ate and s&e(u%ation) "ut in 'enera% it has "een our &osition) !rom a 'eo&o%iti(a%stand&oint) that a% 9aeda is %osin' its e!!e(tiveness as a strate'i( !or(e ? meanin' onethat is (a&a"%e o! drasti(a%% resha&in' the "ehavior o! nations) as it did on Se&t* 88) 778*e &%a(e em&hasis on the word =strate'i(:> e are in no wa sain' that a% 9aeda has"een (on@uered or de(%arin' the +nited States a vi(tor) "ut it is our view that a shi!t iso((urrin' in the nature o! the war) whi(h is ta#in' on more o! a re'iona% and %o(a% ?rather than '%o"a% ? nature*

here the +*S* (a%(u%us is (on(erned) this is neither unusua% nor une&e(ted*Strate'i(a%% s&ea#in') it was to "e e&e(ted that the +nited States wou%d res&ond to theSe&t* 88 atta(#s with a%% the too%s in its arsena% ? overwhe%min' mi%itar !or(e) a heav!orei'n &o%i( sti(#) inte%%i'en(e (a&a"i%ities and %aw en!or(ement* 1t was a%so e&e(ted

that) at some &oint) Ameri(an attention wou%d return to other issues as we%% ? the state o!the e(onom) an erstwhi%e Chinese threat) and so !orth* e a%read have seen this ha&&en*But what o! a% 9aeda< ;as its attention "een diverted) its resour(es stret(hed) or

its 'oa% %ines moved< 1s the sense that a% 9aeda is ='ettin' the worst o! it> thus !ar in thewar ?whi(h we have stated re&eated% ? a(tua%% Dusti!ied stri#es a'ainst sm"o%i( tar'ets thatwou%d 'ri& the wor%d.s attention*
http://www.stratfor.com/Story.neo?storyId=255473http://www.stratfor.com/Story.neo?storyId=250942http://www.stratfor.com/Story.neo?storyId=243923http://www.stratfor.com/Story.neo?storyId=255473http://www.stratfor.com/Story.neo?storyId=250942http://www.stratfor.com/Story.neo?storyId=243923


30/218

Se(ond) it must "e re(a%%ed that the Se&t* 88 atta(#s were in no wa the o&enin'sa%vo o! a% 9aeda.s war ? sim&% its !irst su((ess in (ommandin' the wor%d.s attention*The war) !rom a% 9aeda.s stand&oint) a%read had "een under wa !or severa% ears ?%i#e% "e'innin' with the !irst "om"in' o! the or%d Trade Center in 8E) or even"e!ore) &erha&s with the e&u%sion o! the Soviets !rom A!'hanistan*

Armed with hindsi'ht) inte%%i'en(e ana%sts (an (ome u& with a hand!u% o!&ossi"%e startin' &oints !or a% 9aeda.s war and tra(# the ((%es ? &erha&s 'oin' as !ar"a(# as the assassination o! Anwar Sadat in 8G8 ? usin' various rationa%es* But a%% o!these ((%es have one thin' in (ommon: The are %on' ((%es) mu(h %on'er than the !ourears that have &assed sin(e Se&t* 88) 778*

The ((%e "oo#-ended " the two stri#es a'ainst the or%d Trade Center) in 8Eand 778) is as use!u% to eamine as an:

0i'ht ears trans&ired "etween or%d Trade Center 1 and the Se&t* 88 atta(#s)

&un(tuated " numerous stri#es a'ainst +*S* assets overseas* These in(%ude) "ut(ertain% are not %imited to) the "om"in's o! the Kho"ar Towers in 86)

em"assies in Kena and Tan,ania in 8G and the +SS Co%e in 777) in additionto assassination &%ots tar'etin' the &o&e in the 4hi%i&&ines and a'ainst variousAmeri(an and British di&%omats in 4a#istan*

As this %ist shows) man o! the atta(#s and &%ots that (an "e identi!ied as a% 9aeda

a(ts "etween 8E and 778 invo%ved a =hardened tar'et set> ? mi%itar ordi&%omati( tar'ets that were sm"o%s o! +*S* or estern &ower*

ith the Se&t* 88 atta(#s) a% 9aeda su((ess!u%% stru(# not on% at hard) sm"o%i(

tar'ets) "ut at a =so!t> tar'et as we%% ? the or%d Trade Center towers ? andwith that) the under&innin's o! +*S* &ower: its e(onom*

The tem&o o! a% 9aeda.s o&erations) "e'innin' in 8E) has not s%owed sin(e

Se&t* 88: e have seen) !or eam&%e) assassinations in Jordan H77I) "ra,en

assau%ts a'ainst esterners in Saudi Ara"ia H77I) dead% "om"in's o!ni'ht(%u"s and hote%s in 1ndonesiaH77EI and the Midd%e 0astH77I) and dead%"om"in's o!&assen'er rai% sstems in MadridHMar(h 77I and ondon) not tomention a% 9aeda.s o"vious invo%vement in the insur'en( in 1ra@*

1n short) we are seein' the natura% &ro'ression o! a terrorist (am&ai'n ? a shi!t!rom hard tar'ets to so!t ? at the ta(ti(a% %eve%) entai%in' "oth a trend toward sma%%-s(a%eatta(#s and a% 9aeda.s ada&tation to new &o%iti(a% and se(urit rea%ities* e have seen the same &ro'ression with other 'rou&s in the &ast* For eam&%e);e,"o%%ah ? under the dire(tion o! e"anese nationa% 1mad Mu'hnieh ? went !romthe sui(ide "om"in' o! +*S* Marine head@uarters in Beirut in 8GE and the #idna&&in'

and murder o! C1A station (hie! i%%iam Bu(#%e Hwho !its the de!inition o! a =hardtar'et>I in 8G to the "om"in' o! a Jewish (ommunit (enter in Buenos Aires)Ar'entina) in 8* e do not dismiss the !a(t that ;e,"o%%ah ? whi(h inte%%i'en(ea'ents "e%ieve served as somethin' o! a mode% !or the ear% a% 9aeda) and has "een anon'oin' tar'et o! 'overnment (ounterterrorism e!!orts ? has mutated sin(e that time to"e(ome more o! a &o%iti(a% a(tor) most a(tive within its native s&here "ut sti%% (a&a"%e o!dead% vio%en(e in man &arts o! the wor%d*
http://www.stratfor.com/Story.neo?storyId=%20230701http://www.stratfor.com/Story.neo?storyId=220817http://www.stratfor.com/Story.neo?storyId=237559http://www.stratfor.com/Story.neo?storyId=%20232896http://www.stratfor.com/Story.neo?storyId=%20229135http://www.stratfor.com/Story.neo?storyId=%20252166http://www.stratfor.com/Story.neo?storyId=255764http://www.stratfor.com/Story.neo?storyId=%20230701http://www.stratfor.com/Story.neo?storyId=220817http://www.stratfor.com/Story.neo?storyId=237559http://www.stratfor.com/Story.neo?storyId=%20232896http://www.stratfor.com/Story.neo?storyId=%20229135http://www.stratfor.com/Story.neo?storyId=%20252166http://www.stratfor.com/Story.neo?storyId=255764


31/218

From a ta(ti(a% &ers&e(tive) the shi!t to so!ter tar'ets is @uite worrisome ? noton% "e(ause the are so mu(h more numerous than =hard> tar'ets) "ut a%so "e(ause a%9aeda @uite (%ear% has %aid (are!u% &%ans !or this sta'e o! the war*

True) the 'rou& so !ar has not "een a"%e to (arr out a su((ess!u% !o%%ow-on toSe&t* 88 !rom +*S* soi%) "ut that (ertain% is not !or %a(# o! trin'* To date) +*S*

inte%%i'en(e a'ents have un(overed at %east a do,en %i#e% &%ots within the +nited States)interdi(ted at various sta'es o! the atta(# ((%e ? and it is wide% #nown that a% 9aeda(ondu(ted detai%ed survei%%an(e o! the Citi'rou& "ui%din') 4rudentia% 4%a,a) /ew or#Sto(# 0(han'e and other !inan(ia% tar'ets in /ew or# Cit) as we%% as the or%d Ban#and 1nternationa% Monetar Fund head@uarters and (on'ressiona% tar'ets in ashin'ton)3*C* From everthin' that +*S* inte%%i'en(e #nows ? in(%udin' interro'ations o!(a&tured o&eratives ? a% 9aeda does not 'o to su(h %en'ths as s#et(hin' out thear(hite(tura% wea#nesses or se(urit &oints o! a "ui%din' without eventua%% trin' to"rin' it down) even when the tar'et is #nown to authorities*

/ow) we (annot #now de!inite% whether a% 9aeda %a(#s the (a&a"i%it to &u%% o!!another atta(# within the +nited States at this &oint or ? !or reasons o! its own ? has

o&ted not to* Certain%) there have "een numerous &eriods) su(h as the re(ent meetin' o!the+*/* 2enera% Assem"%in /ew or#) when the 'rou& (ou%d have made an e!!e(tivestatement " sta'in' an atta(# ? and did not* 2iven that) and the e!!e(tiveness o! the FB1and C1A thus !ar in &re-em&tin' &%ots) we inter&ret a (ertain amount o! disru&tion*

1n %i'ht o! histor) however) this ana%sis &rovides %itt%e (om!ort*Thou'h (entra%i,ed (ommand and (ontro% o&erations in a%% %i#e%ihood have "een

disru&ted) the shi!t that a&&ears to "e under wa ? mar#ed &arti(u%ar% " the Madridand ondon "om"in's and the use o! =B> team &%aers or native-"orn sm&athi,ers ? isthat !rom =a% 9aeda the Or'ani,ation> to =a% 9aeda the Movement*> e) a%on' with'overnment inte%%i'en(e a'ents) have noted somethin' o! a tea(her-&u&i% re%ationshi& inman o! Aman a%-awahiri.s videota&ed statements: 1t is &ossi"%e !or a% 9aeda toretroa(tive% (%aim res&onsi"i%it !or an num"er o! a(ts ? inde&endent% or'ani,ed and(arried out " sm&athi,ers or wanna"es ? thus "o%sterin' its own (redi"i%it and that o!the a(tors at the same time* 1t a%so is &ossi"%e !or a% 9aeda) at times) to &rove dire(t %in#s"etween its (entra% %eadershi& and &eri&hera% a(tors*

Ta(ti(a%% s&ea#in') a% 9aeda the Movement has "oth a "roader 'eo'ra&hi( rea(h? drawin' on re'iona% (on!%i(ts and %o(a% 'rievan(es ? and sha%%ower de&th Hsin(e itre%ies on sma%%-s(a%e stri#es at so!ter tar'etsI than wou%d a% 9aeda the Or'ani,ation* Butthis is) in its own wa) a stren'th: 2iven a% 9aeda.s sustained o&erationa% tem&o sin(eSe&t* 88) 778) it a&&ears that the ins&ired movement has mana'ed to over(ome the(ommand-and-(ontro% &ro"%em &osed " the iso%ation and @uarr status o! a% 9aeda.s(entra% %eaders*

1! ou were to &%ot this out on a (hart) what ou mi'ht see are two trend %ines!ormin' an =:> One) de&i(tin' a% 9aeda.s im&a(t as a strate'i( !or(e) on a de(%inin'trend the other) de&i(tin' the ta(ti(a% and se(urit threats &osed " a wides&read and %essvisi"%e movement) on the in(rease*

At this &oint) we !ind ourse%ves near the mid-&oint on the * A% 9aeda has a to&%eadershi& that is) thou'h in hidin') sti%% (a&a"%e o! (ommuni(atin' with the wor%dthrou'h "road(ast re(ordin's and the 1nternet) and ? i! ondon is an indi(ation ? !ootso%diersaround the wor%d who are (a&a"%e o! !%in' "e%ow the radar unti% an atta(#
http://www.stratfor.com/Story.neo?storyId=%20255155http://www.stratfor.com/Story.neo?storyId=%20255893http://www.stratfor.com/Story.neo?storyId=252609http://www.stratfor.com/Story.neo?storyId=252609http://www.stratfor.com/Story.neo?storyId=%20255155http://www.stratfor.com/Story.neo?storyId=%20255893http://www.stratfor.com/Story.neo?storyId=252609http://www.stratfor.com/Story.neo?storyId=252609


32/218

a(tua%% is (arried out* 1!) however) a% 9aeda 'e%s as a movement ? with its ideo%o'resonatin' amon' mi%itants with various (auses o! their own ? the eisten(e orannihi%ation o! wide% re(o'ni,ed !i'ureheads wou%d "e) in most res&e(ts) irre%evant*


33/218

A% 9aeda in 776: 3evo%ution and Ada&tation6an) , 200

The new ear is an idea% time) in 'eo&o%iti(s as in other areas o! %i!e) to re!%e(t ondeve%o&ments o! the &ast ear and) at STRATFOR) to o!!er our view o! those we

anti(i&ate in the rea%m o! terrorism in 776*For @uite some time) we have "een tra(#in' a% 9aeda.s metamor&hosis !rom a

re%ative% sma%% 'rou& o! individua%s who viewed themse%ves as the van'uard o! radi(a%1s%amism ? (a%%in' themse%ves =Kni'hts under the 4ro&het.s Banner> ? to a mu(h"roadermovement or ideo%o' (a&a"%e o! in!%uen(in' the "ehavior o! man others* Therhetori( o! Osama "in aden and the other %eaders o! the Dihadist (ause has (a%%ed (%ear%and re&eated% !or the =+mmah)> or 1s%ami( &eo&%e) to rise u& and Doin the =Dihad a'ainstthe Jews and Crusaders*> hi%e this (a%% has not resu%ted in the wor%dwide u&risin' a%9aeda.s %eaders ho&ed !or) it has nonethe%ess resonated in some @uarters*

Fro. 2rou3 +o 1ove.e0+

This shi!t !rom a 'rou& to a movement was evident in 775) and we "e%ieve therewi%% "e !urther si'ns o! the evo%ution in 776*

1n the maDor atta(#s attri"uted to a% 9aeda or (%ose a!!i%iates durin' 775 ? su(has those in ondon HJu%I) Sharm e%-Shei#h HJu%I) Ba%i HO(to"erI) and AmmanH/ovem"erI? o&eratives !rom re'iona% 'rou&s) rather than teams o! what mi'ht "e(a%%ed the =a% 9aeda a%%-stars> that (arried out the Se&t* 88 o&eration) too# u& the "annero! Dihad* The di!!eren(es here are im&ortant: The Se&t* 88 hiDa(#ers were dis&at(hed !rom=The Base> and (ame to the +nited States to (arr out their missions* The re(eiveddire(t %o'isti(a% su&&ort and o&erationa% 'uidan(e !rom a% 9aeda.s (entra% (ommandstru(ture* On the other hand) the o&eratives in ondon and 1ndonesia were %o(a%s) and the

o&eratives in Amman were re'iona%) in the sense that the (rossed over the "order !rom1ra@ to (arr out their stri#es*hi%e there are (onne(tions "etween the main a% 9aeda %eadershi& and

o&erationa% (e%%s in &%a(es %i#e Britain and 1ra@ ? as evident !rom the 'rou&.s statements)inter(e&ted %etters and the sui(ide video o! ondon "om"er Mohammed Siddi@ue Khan? the %an'ua'e o! the %etter&ur&orted% written " de&ut a% 9aeda %eader Aman a%-awahiri to A"u Musa" a%-ar@awi in 1ra@ (%ear% demonstrates that the various nodes o!a% 9aeda eist in more o! a %oose !ederation than a stri(t hierar(hi(a% (hain o! (ommand*1n the %etter) a%-awahiri made !%atterin' statements to a%-ar@awi and re@uested that hedo (ertain thin's ? su(h as sto& "eheadin' hosta'es and ease his atta(#s a'ainst the Shia? "ut he was not (%ear% orderin' him to do those thin's* And indeed) a%[email protected]

mi%itants (ontinued to (arr out atta(#s a'ainst Shiite tar'ets in 1ra@ even a!ter the %etterwas made &u"%i(*A% 9aeda.s tenden( to wor# with %o(a% mi%itants has "een we%% esta"%ished sin(e

the ear% 87s: 1t showed u& in o&erations tar'etin' &%a(es %i#e emen) Soma%ia)0thio&ia and /ew or#* This sstem was institutiona%i,ed in 8G) when "in adenissued a Doint !atwa with the 0'&tian 1s%ami( 2rou&) A% Jihad) the Jihad Movement inBan'%adesh and the =Jamaat u% +%ema e 4a#istan> under the name =or%d 1s%ami( Front!or Jihad A'ainst Jews and Crusaders*> The !atwa de(%ares it the =individua% dut !or
http://www.stratfor.com/Story.neo?storyId=255929http://www.stratfor.com/Story.neo?storyId=251595http://www.stratfor.com/Story.neo?storyId=252300http://www.stratfor.com/Story.neo?storyId=258052http://www.stratfor.com/Story.neo?storyId=258423http://www.stratfor.com/Story.neo?storyId=258423http://www.stratfor.com/Story.neo?storyId=257342http://www.stratfor.com/Story.neo?storyId=255929http://www.stratfor.com/Story.neo?storyId=251595http://www.stratfor.com/Story.neo?storyId=252300http://www.stratfor.com/Story.neo?storyId=258052http://www.stratfor.com/Story.neo?storyId=258423http://www.stratfor.com/Story.neo?storyId=258423http://www.stratfor.com/Story.neo?storyId=257342


34/218

ever Mus%im> to atta(# =Jews and Crusaders> wherever &ossi"%e) =in order to %i"eratethe a%-A@sa Mos@ue and the ho% mos@ue [Me((a$ !rom their 'ri&) and in order !or theirarmies to move out o! a%% the %ands o! 1s%am*>

A% 9aeda 'ained momentum and stren'th a!ter "in aden moved "a(# toA!'hanistan !rom Sudan in 86* This ena"%ed the 'rou& to o&erate without the

assistan(e o! %o(a% mi%itants* ;owever) a!ter the +*S* invasion o! A!'hanistan in 778) thearrests or deaths o! severa% #e a% 9aeda %eaders and the sei,ure o! mi%%ions o! do%%ars inassets) a% 9aeda has reverted "a(# to its ear%ier o&erationa% mode%*

As we have noted &revious%) this shi!t 'ives =a% 9aeda the movement> "roader'eo'ra&hi( and o&erationa% rea(h than =a% 9aeda the 'rou&>) "ut at the same time it issha%%ower in a sense: The new a(tor %a(#s the o&erationa% de&th and e&ertise o! the (ore'rou& and its we%%-trained %eadershi&* 1n !a(t) a% 9aeda the 'rou& has "een una"%e todemonstrate a (ontinued (a&a"i%it to a(t as a strate'i( !or(e ? meanin' one whosea(tions (an drasti(a%% resha&e the wor%d ? sin(e the Se&t* 88 atta(#s* There have "eenno stri#es (arried out " =a%%-star teams> sin(e Se&t* 88* 1nstead) the o&erations that haveta#en &%a(e have "orne mu(h stron'er resem"%an(es to the anti-+*S* atta(#s in the 87s)

su(h as the 8E or%d Trade Center "om"in' or the em"ass "om"in's in 0ast A!ri(a*Su(h a(tions (an #i%% man &eo&%e and are not to "e %i'ht% dismissed ? "ut in terms o!'eo&o%iti(a% im&a(t and ma'nitude) the are mere &in&ri(#s when (om&ared to thestunnin' "%ow that was dea%t on Se&t* 88*

T,4ar+e( A++acks* T).)05 a0( "es)l)e0ce

Re(ent%) severa% readers have as#ed whether we "e%ieve that a% 9aeda has&ur&ose% avoided atta(#in' the +nited States in order to &%a to the +*S* media anda%%ow &u"%i( o&inion to turn a'ainst the war in 1ra@ ? and) (onse@uent%) a'ainst the"roader war on terrorism* The answer is no: hi%e &u"%i( o&inion in the +nited Statesand e%sewhere has indeed run a'ainst the war in 1ra@) the %a(# o! a su((ess!u% !o%%ow-onatta(# " a% 9aeda on +*S* soi% has not "een strate'i(a%% &%anned or ordered* 1n otherwords) it has not "een !or a %a(# o! trin'* Sin(e Se&t* 88) +*S* inte%%i'en(e and %awen!or(ement a'en(ies have thwarted at %east a do,en %i#e% &%ots a'ainst tar'ets in the+nited States) interdi(ted at various sta'es o! the atta(# ((%e*1n addition to the we%%-#nown &%ots (onne(ted to a(tors su(h as Ri(hard Reid and Jose 4adi%%a) it is wide%#nown H!rom eviden(e made &u"%i( in 77I that a% 9aeda (ondu(ted detai%edsurvei%%an(e o! the Citi'rou& "ui%din') 4rudentia% 4%a,a) /ew or# Sto(# 0(han'e andother !inan(ia% tar'ets in /ew or# Cit) as we%% as the or%d Ban# and 1nternationa%Monetar Fund head@uarters and (on'ressiona% tar'ets in ashin'ton) 3*C*

hi%e man (an and do de"ate ta(ti(s used " various 'overnments in the anti-Dihadist war) and we ourse%ves have o((asiona%% ro%%ed our ees as the 4a#istani'overnment announ(ed the arrest or death o! et another o! a% 9aeda.s a&&arent%%imit%ess =num"er three> %eaders) we must nonethe%ess 'ive (redit where it is due* The+*S* 'overnment and its a%%ies have done a ver 'ood Do" at disru&tin' terrorist &%ots and&%ans* The disru&tion strate' is rea%% @uite sim&%e: Better to &i(# u& an a% 9aeda sus&e(t!or immi'ration !raud or another %esser o!!ense than to investi'ate a smo#in' ho%e in the'round* There were am&%e instan(es o! this ta(ti( in &%a durin' 775 ? most nota"% thearrest o! an imam in odi) Ca%i!ornia) who the FB1 "e%ieves was en(oura'in' a terrorist


35/218

&%ot) and the arrest o! an imam in C%eve%and) Ohio) who is "e%ieved to "e %in#ed to a4a%estinian mi%itant 'rou&*

The trai% o! disru&ted &%ots has "een (ontinuous) and it s&ea#s to Dihadists.on'oin' desire to stri#e at the +nited States* Thou'h not a%% o! the =disru&ted &%ots> made&u"%i( " the +*S* 'overnment ne(essari% shou%d "e viewed as va%id threats) there

remains a (%ear re(ord o! &%ans to stri#e on +*S* soi% sin(e Se&t* 88* Over the ears)1s%amist mi%itants have &roven to "e ver resi%ient and ada&ta"%e) and we anti(i&ate thewi%% (ontinue to ada&t* e note that more than ei'ht ears e%a&sed "etween the 8Eor%d Trade Center "om"in' and the Se&t* 88 atta(#s ? durin' whi(h time the Dihadists!a(ed nothin' a&&roa(hin' the %eve% o! &ressure the have endured sin(e Se&t* 88 andensurin' ='%o"a% war on terrorism*> To "e sure) severa% wou%d-"e terrorism s&e(ta(u%ars)su(h as the mi%%ennium "om" &%ot and O&eration BoDin#a) were thwarted "etween 8Eand 778* 1t was a'ainst this "a(#dro& o! de!eats that the Dihadists &ersisted andeventua%% su((eeded in (arrin' out a massive stri#e on +*S* soi%*

Simi%ar%) the strin's o! %aw en!or(ement and inte%%i'en(e su((esses sin(e Se&t* 88do not ru%e out the &ossi"i%it o! another stri#e on +*S* soi% in time* e "e%ieve the

%i#e%ihood o! su(h an atta(# wi%% in(rease as memories o! Se&t* 88 dim* 3es&ite the mande(%arations made in the immediate a!termath o! the stri#es in /ew or# and ashin'tonthat =Ameri(a wi%% never "e the same)> there has "een a s%ow and stead shi!t "a(# to"usiness-as-usua% and a sense o! 'enera% (om&%a(en(* On the who%e) Ameri(ans are a&eo&%e with short attention s&ans ? and at an rate) =a%ert !ati'ue> has a%was "eenre(o'ni,ed as amon' the ha,ards in a %on'-term war* hi%e we do not "e%ieve that a%9aeda is (a&a"%e o! (arrin' out another Se&t* 88) that is not the same as sain' the(annot (arr out another stri#e on +*S* soi%* e "e%ieve the wi%% do so ? %i#e% with%ower im&a(t than in 778 ? as soon as the are (a&a"%eo! evadin' &re-o&erationa%dete(tion*

Dea+, Toll Tre0(s

;avin' said that) there is another trend to address* The shi!t !rom 'rou& tomovement ma mean that a% 9aeda no %on'er shou%d "e viewed as a strate'i( 'eo&o%iti(a%!or(e) "ut the Dihadists are sti%% a threat and (a&a"%e o! #i%%in' man &eo&%e* A %oo# at thenum"ers shows there have "een more deaths attri"uted to a% 9aeda in the 5 months sin(eSe&t* 88 Hmore than G77I than in the 5 months &rior to it H%ess than 77I ? des&ite the'%o"a% war on terror and the su((esses in disru&tin' a% 9aeda as an or'ani,ation* eshou%d note that these statisti(s do not in(%ude the deaths in 1ra@) A!'hanistan or the!ormer Soviet +nion where a(tive insur'en(ies are under wa) and that the in(%ude "othestern and non-estern vi(tims* ith the a(tive resistan(e "ein' !ou'ht in 1ra@ a'ainst(oa%ition !or(es and 1ra@i (ivi%ians) the num"ers o! deaths (aused " Dihadists there wou%d"e mu(h hi'her*

There are severa% reasons !or this trend in death to%%s* First) as we have stated) a% 9aeda the movement is %ar'er and more wide%dis&ersed 'eo'ra&hi(a%% than a% 9aeda the 'rou&* Thou'h man o! those invo%ved in themovement ma not have the trainin' and &ro!essiona%ism o! their =a% 9aeda &rime>(ounter&arts) sheer num"ers and 'eo'ra&hi( !a(tors have a%%owed the movement to atta(#with mu(h 'reater !re@uen( and a(ross a mu(h "roader !ront than the main 'rou& wou%d


36/218

"e a"%e to su&&ort* For eam&%e) in addition to the atta(#s in 1ndonesia) Britain and theSinai 4eninsu%a) the wor%d witnessed the emer'en(e o! a new sui(ide-"om"in' threat!rom the Jamaat-u%-MuDahideen %ast ear in Ban'%adesh? a re'ion where a% 9aeda the'rou& has not histori(a%% (hosen to a(t*

Se(ond) there has "een a shi!t toward so!t tar'ets* As &hsi(a% se(urit measures

surroundin' traditiona% sm"o%s o! estern &ower Hsu(h as the hite ;ouse) the4enta'on and the +*S*) British and Austra%ian em"assiesI has "een intensi!ied or=hardened)> the threat has "een &ushed toward so!ter tar'et sets that are ver di!!i(u%t tode!end ? su(h as hote%s) trains and su"was* The &ro&ensit toward atta(#in' so!tertar'ets with sma%%er devi(es to (reate %ar'e (asua%t (ounts was (%ear% de%ineated in1ndonesiaon O(t* 8) where the stri#e " Jemaah 1s%amiah a'ainst restaurants in Ba%i(aused more deaths than the 'rou&.s %ast two %ar'e (ar "om" atta(#s*

=;ard tar'ets> are Dust that ? hard to stri#e due to desi'n and %o(ation* A %ar'e"om" is needed to &enetrate de!enses* ;owever) a shi!t to so!t tar'ets means that sma%%im&rovised e&%osive devi(es H103sI (an "e used with dead% e!!i(ien( ? as a(tua%%o((urred in ondon and Amman* The demand !or resour(es is di!!erent as we%%: S(ores o!

sma%% 103s (an "e made with the same @uantit o! e&%osives used in the 8E or%dTrade Center tru(# "om"* 0m&%oin' the =smart te(hno%o'> o! human "om"ers) who&%a(e timed or remote-detonated "om"s ? or themse%ves) in sui(ide mode ? in idea%ta(ti(a% %o(ations) su(h devi(es ver easi% (an #i%% or wound s(ores o! &eo&%e* 1n !a(t) therai% atta(#s in Madrid and ondon "ore &roo! that sma%% 103s (an (ause man moredeaths than atta(#s usin' "io%o'i(a% or (hemi(a% a'ents su(h asanthra or sarin*

Thus) the +*S* 'overnment.s strate' o! =hardenin'> o!!i(ia% sites and assets has"een a dou"%e-ed'ed sword when it (omes to &rivate industr) &arti(u%ar% thetrans&ortation and hos&ita%it se(tors* The &u"%i( and &rivate se(tors have Doined !or(es ine!!orts to &rote(t trans&ortation sstems) "ut &rivate-se(tor "usinesses %i#e hote%s and(ruise %ines) as we%% as the tourism industr in 'enera%) remain etreme% di!!i(u%t tose(ure* These tar'ets host %ar'e num"ers o! =&re-&a(#a'ed> vi(tims* This !a(t has not"een o"s(ured " the !o' o! war !or the Dihadists) who (ontinue to tar'et su(h "usinesses*1t ta#es %itt%e e&ertise or trainin' to &%a(e an 103 on a su"wa or in a restaurant or hote%*e e&e(t that Dihadists wi%% (ontinue to e&%oit su(h vu%nera"i%ities in the =so!t tar'et>set over the net two to three ears ? unti% there has "een enou'h %oss o! %i!e to ma#e it a&o%iti(a% issue !or Ameri(an voters* e e&e(t this wou%d not o((ur unti% the su"was in/ew or# Cit or ashin'ton) 3*C*) are atta(#ed in a ondon- or Madrid-st%e stri#e) theashin'ton-to-/ew or# Amtra# %ine is hit) or there is an Amman-st%e sui(ide atta(# ata %ar'e +*S* hote% in a maDor +*S* (it*

Look)05 A,ea(

A% 9aeda remains a dan'erous movement and) whi%e it now %a(#s the strate'i(&un(h it (arried in 778) it wi%% (ontinue to atta(# so!t tar'ets a(ross a %ar'e 'eo'ra&hi(!ront in the (omin' ear* e e&e(t that in 776) stri#es wi%% "e (arried out in "oth thetraditiona% hots&ots and in areas not &revious% #nown !or 1s%amist mi%itant a(tivit* Thea(tive armed stru''%es in 1ra@) A!'hanistan and the Cau(asus (ontinue to a(t as a #ind o!=Dihadist war (o%%e'e> ? and as the 'raduates o! that s(hoo% return to their (ountries o!ori'in) the wi%% (ontinue to share their trainin' and e&erien(e with mi%itants "a(# home*
http://www.stratfor.com/Story.neo?storyId=258900http://www.stratfor.com/Story.neo?storyId=258423http://www.stratfor.com/Story.neo?storyId=240308http://www.stratfor.com/Story.neo?storyId=258376http://www.stratfor.com/Story.neo?storyId=259655http://www.stratfor.com/Story.neo?storyId=258900http://www.stratfor.com/Story.neo?storyId=258423http://www.stratfor.com/Story.neo?storyId=240308http://www.stratfor.com/Story.neo?storyId=258376http://www.stratfor.com/Story.neo?storyId=259655


37/218

The (onne(tions that the mi%itants ma#e in &%a(es %i#e 1ra@ and Che(hna a%so wi%% %in#them to the '%o"a% movement in the same wa that the Dihad in A!'hanistan did !or the&re(edin' 'eneration*

1t is not (ertain what the new ear wi%% "rin' !or a% 9aeda the 'rou&* 1t is not (%earat this &oint that "in aden is even a%ive ? he has not "een heard !rom in more than a

ear) and there have "een no (on(%usive si'ns o! his surviva% sin(e we &ondered inSe&tem"er that he mi'ht indeed "e dead* ;owever) we are (ertain that whatever e%ementso! the or'ani,ation remain are dedi(ated to stri#in' the +nited States as hard and as!re@uent% as the are a"%e* 2iven their &ast &%ots and interro'ations o! #e &%aers su(has Kha%ed Shei#h Mohammed) we #now that a% 9aeda the 'rou& has "een interested !orears in stri#in' !inan(ia% tar'ets) air(ra!t and (hemi(a%P&etro%eum &%ants* Be(ause a%9aeda has a demonstrated histor o! revisitin' tar'ets a!ter !ai%ed or !oi%ed atta(#s) it is%o'i(a% that the wi%% (ontinue to attem&t stri#es a'ainst su(h tar'ets in the !uture*

Bin aden.s nota"%e a"sen(e durin' the &ast ear has unders(ored a% 9aeda.s shi!t!rom a 'rou& to a movement ? and indi(ates that even when he is not seen to "e in(ontro%) the movement wi%% #ee& steamin' ri'ht a%on' on (ourse* This indi(ates that i! "in

aden is a%ive and eventua%% is ta#en out " the +nited States) the movement wi%%(ontinue* 1deo%o'ies are mu(h harder to #i%% than individua%s*That "rin's us to another #e &oint: There has "een a 'radua% "ut a((e%eratin'

de(%ine in su&&ort !or the ideo%o' o! Dihadism in the Mus%im wor%d* Thou'h &o(#ets o!staun(h su&&ort !or Dihadism remain) the tide o! &u"%i( o&inion has "e'un to turn a'ainsta% 9aeda and Dihadism in some (ru(ia% %o(ations) in(%udin' Saudi Ara"ia* A%-awahirihimse%! has a(#now%ed'ed de!eat in Saudi Ara"ia) where the monar(h has &ersuaded themasses to turn a'ainst Dihadists ? or =deviants)> as the are termed " the re'ime*

1t is this #ind o! ideo%o'i(a% "att%e that must "e !ou'ht and won to de!eat Dihadism*1t is indeed a %on'-term war) and we do not anti(i&ate its (on(%usion in 776*


38/218

A% 9aeda: The /et 4hase o! 0vo%ution or veterans o!the Soviet resistan(e in A!'hanistan) and !orma% mi%itant trainin' (am&s* 1n this iteration)o&erationa% (ommanderstrained at (am&s in A!'hanistan ? most nota"% Kha%den ?re(eived !undin' and %o'isti(a% su&&ort !rom "in aden and others) and (ondu(tedo&erations in various &arts o! the wor%d*

e do note that this is a rather (ontroversia% startin' &oint !or our histor* 1t (an

"e (redi"% ar'ued Hand indeed) we have had su(h ar'uments amon'st ourse%vesI that this&hase re&resents a #ind o! =&roto-a% 9aeda> ? that a% 9aeda had not "een esta"%ished asa !orma% or'ani,ation in the ear% 87s) and as a resu%t) an atta(#s durin' that &eriodwere not (arried out " a (entra%i,ed or'ani,ation that was (ontro%%ed " "in aden* The(ontrastin' &oint o! view is that a% 9aeda a(tua%% did eist at that time) "ut "e(ause "inaden was %ivin' as a 'uest in Sudan Hand then) %ater) in A!'hanistanI) he did not (%aimres&onsi"i%it !or the atta(#s or &%ots that were (arried out at that sta'e) so as not to "rin'&o%iti(a% &ressure Hor mi%itar reta%iationI a'ainst his host 'overnments*


39/218

Be that as it ma) the mode% Hwhi(h !or &ur&oses o! this ana%sis wi%% "e (a%%ed=8*7>I was evident in man Dihadist o&erations o! the ear% 87s: A su((ession o!individua%s who went !orth !rom "in aden-run trainin' (am&s to &%an and (ondu(tatta(#s e%sewhere* These men !re@uent% (onne(ted with veterans o! the A!'han Dihad ?

or with others who had &assed throu'h the trainin' (am&s in A!'hanistan ? on(e thearrived in the tar'et (ountr) and thus) o&erationa% (e%%s were "orn*One &rime eam&%e o! this 8*7 mode% (an "e seen in the &%ots o! A"de% Basit and

Ahmed ADaD) who %e!t the Kha%den trainin' (am& and !%ew to /ew or# in Se&tem"er8* ADaD was arrested !or a &ass&ort vio%ation) "ut Basit entered the (ountr and wenton to or(hestrate the 8E or%d Trade Center "om"in'* The o&erationa% mode% a%soa&&%ies in the 8 stri#es in emen a'ainst the +*S* 0m"ass in Sanaa and +*S* AirFor(e &ersonne% in Aden) and in &%ots that did not (ome to !ruition ? !or eam&%e)O&eration BoDin#a and A"de% Basit.s &%ots to #i%% 4o&e John 4au% 11 and +*S* 4residentBi%% C%inton*

A s%i'ht variation on this mode% emer'ed in the %ater 87s: O&erationa%

(ommanders with more o"vious %in#s to a% 9aeda and "in aden were dis&at(hed toemen) Canada) Kena and other (ountries to esta"%ish (e%%s and (arr out atta(#s* This8*8 mode% (ou%d "e seen in the 8G "om"in's o! +*S* em"assies in Kena and Tan,ania)the disru&ted =mi%%ennium "om" &%ot> and the atta(# on the +SS Co%e in 777* At thissta'e) "in aden was sti%% denin' invo%vement in su(h atta(#s*

The *7 o&erationa% mode% is the easiest to re(o'ni,e) "ut thus !ar a&&ears to have"een used on% on P88: An a% 9aeda =a%%-star team> was se%e(ted) trained and dis&at(hed" the (entra% %eadershi& to the tar'et (ountr to (arr out an atta(#* Bin aden.s stan(eon (%aims o! res&onsi"i%it shi!ted !o%%owin' that event* For months) he (ontinued to dena% 9aeda.s invo%vement) "ut over time (ame to a(#now%ed'e it and ? @uite re(ent% ?stated outri'ht that he&ersona%% oversaw a%% the detai%s*

The hand&i(#ed o&eratives used !or P88 or an other atta(# under this mode%wou%d "e) " de!inition) "etter trained than the ad ho( o&eratives "ehind the version 8*7and 8*8 atta(#s ? and rou'h% e@ua% in stature to the 8*7 (ommanders* For the most &art)the a%%-star teams a&&ear to have &ra(ti(ed "etter o&erationa% se(urit than their !ore"earsas we%% ? thou'h) not "ein' su&ermen) the did ma#e some trade(ra!t mista#es*

This mode% &rovides "oth ta(ti(a% advanta'es and disadvanta'es !or the hostor'ani,ation* On the u&side) it a%%ows !or e(e%%ent (ommand and (ontro% o! theo&eration* On the downside) it is a resour(e-intensive mode% numerous o&eratives arere@uired) as is a !a(i%it !or trainin') and a (ommand stru(ture (a&a"%e o! stain' in(ommuni(ation with the a'ents in the !ie%d and &rovidin' them with %o'isti(a% su&&ort*2iven the (%ues un(overed a!ter P88 and the e!!orts o! the +nited States and other(ountries to disru&t su(h in!rastru(ture) it is (urrent% ver di!!i(u%t !or a% 9aeda toem&%o this mode%* This) in turn) %ed to a devo%utiono! sorts !or the or'ani,ation and theado&tion o! a third o&erationa% mode%*

The E*7 mode% ? whi(h a&&%ies to most o! the atta(#s attri"uted to a% 9aeda sin(eP88 ? invo%ves ='rassroots Dihadists*> B this) we mean (e%%s with a %o(a% %eadershi&(arrin' out atta(#s in a (ountr with whi(h the have a %on' asso(iation ? rather than(ommanders or 'rou&s o! o&eratives who are de&%oed " the (entra% a% 9aeda (ommand!or &ur&oses o! (ondu(tin' a stri#e in a !orei'n (ountr* 1n some (ases) it a&&ears that


40/218

mem"ers or %eaders o! these (e%%s have "een trained at terrorist (am&s or !ou'ht in a Dihadsomewhere) "ut the are !or the most &art (iti,ens who have "een ins&ired " a% 9aeda)and the (e%%s have done their re(ruitin' %o(a%%* Moreover) the (hoose tar'ets and(ondu(t o&erations on% in the (ountries where the %ive*

0am&%es o! this mode% mi'ht "e !ound with a% 9aeda in the Ara"ian 4eninsu%a

and 0'&t.s Tawhid wa a%-Jihad) the 'rou& that has (%aimed re(ent atta(#s a'ainst touristtar'ets in the Sinai 4eninsu%a* 1t a&&ears a% 9aeda E*7 o&eratives %a(# the s#i%% ando&erationa% savv o! their *7 (ounter&arts the have a tenden( to ma#e o&erationa%errorsthat %ead to thwarted &%ots and arrests*

1t is &ossi"%e) "ut not a &rere@uisite) within the E*7 mode% that o&eratives have(onta(t with the (entra% or'ani,ation* Mohammed Siddi@ue Khan) "e%ieved to have "eenthe %eader o! the (e%% that (arried out mu%ti&%e "om"in's in ondon in Ju% 775)a&&arent% had some (onta(t with a% 9aeda in 4a#istan* /everthe%ess) this or'ani,ationa%stru(ture di!!ers si'ni!i(ant% !rom the 8*7 and *7 mode%s in that the o&erationa%(ommander andPor atta(# team is not dis&at(hed " the a% 9aeda %eadershi& to another(ountr !or &ur&oses o! an o&eration*

1nterestin'% enou'h) a% 9aeda has (%aimed man) i! not most) o! the atta(#s that!a%% under the E*7 mode% ? even thou'h the %eadershi& was) " de!inition) !ar %essinvo%ved in the &%annin' and ee(ution o! su(h o&erations than o! others that it denied*

Al Qae(a 678?

1t is within this (ontet that the un!o%din' (ase in Canada is most si'ni!i(ant* Asdetai%s emer'e) it is "e(omin' a&&arent that those arrested wou%d ? i! the a%%e'ations aretrue ? re&resent a 'rassroots (e%%* Authorities sa the have !ound no eviden(e %in#in'the sus&e(ts to the (entra% a% 9aeda %eadershi&* ;owever) it a%so wou%d seem that the menwent "eond the E*7 mode% o! thin#in' and a(tin' %o(a%%*

26404_al-qaeda book draft 100625

Documents