26 june 2010 lme 3-mth (usd/tonne) m mm …...mcx- july s 79 r 90 technical preface lme zinc...
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PERFORMANCE SNAPSHOT
Exchange Commodity Open High Low Close
Close
% Change Volume
Volume %
Change Open Interest
Open Interest
% Change
Copper 6495 6875 6470 6770 5.21 154,401 -4.86 3,236 16.03
Zinc 1770 1893.75 1752 1873 8.27 62,776 -19.91 2,052 -29.19
Lead 1765 1850 1760 1815 4.01 26,694 -7.67 750 -44.81
Nickel 19800 20418 19131 19750 0.82 21,115 -29.51 331 -48.44
Aluminium 1948 2019 1928 1997 2.73 96,762 -18.05 3,375 -25.30
Copper 298.95 317.6 298.95 317.1 6.52 78,324 75.83 9,267 16.64
Zinc 81.1 87.3 81.1 86.45 7.26 10,101 25.35 2,067 18.18
Lead 81.35 85.4 81.35 85.05 5.26 9,236 38.89 2,000 27.80
Nickel 919.4 937.3 897 924.2 1.68 31,940 34.06 4,330 84.73
Aluminium 90.4 92.4 89.4 92.05 2.39 3,841 108.30 902 103.61
LME 3-mth
Forward
(USD/tonne)
MCX Futures
(Rs./Kg)
MARKET RECAP
In the previous week, metals experienced gains on account of Chinese currency revaluation giving strength to economy,
weakness in dollar index, and rise in consumption from the world’s largest consumer, China. Investors believed that most of the
bad news is overdone in the market and thus re-entered the market to take advantage of low pricing. Moreover, China waiving
the export would curb higher supplies in the market and thus could re-balance the demand supply equilibrium
China decided to loosen the 23 month’s old Yuan peg to dollar, fixed in July 2008 as the global financial crisis evolved—a move
to prevent declines in Western currencies from harming the exports. Base metals and crude oil were the major beneficiaries
from as a stronger Yuan would stimulate demand of imported goods and also minimize the risk of inflation
The daily consumption for refined copper in China grew 5% in May from April, as a fall in imports was offset by rising output
and a drop in stock levels. Copper consumption came in at 700,000 tonnes last month, versus 650,000 in April
The FOMC kept the key rate unchanged at 0.25% and reiterated its pledge to it for "an extended period". The fiscal crisis in
Europe, low inflation and high rate of unemployment in US become the cause of delayed economic recovery
China retained 13 to 15% on aluminium product exports, while scrapping from July 15 onwards tax rebates of 5% on exports
of semi-finished products made from five other base metals, in a bid to avert further pain for an aluminium industry battling
anti-dumping charges that have hurt exports
ECONOMIC INDICATORS
The Existing home sales fell 2.2% to a much lower-than-expected annual sales rate of 5.66 million (April revised slightly higher
to 5.79 million)
Home prices for government-sponsored mortgages rose 0.8% in April on top of March's revised 0.2% gain, a gain that marked
a shift higher for the series (March initially reported at plus 0.3%)
The Sales of new single-family houses were 32.7% below the revised April 2010 rate and 18.3% below the rate in May 2009.
New home sales registered for May were at 300,000 as compare to the expectations of 410,000 while prior of 504,000
Jobless claims fell back in the June 19 week, down 19,000 to 457,000--off the 4,000 upward revisions in prior week. While,
continuing claims decline by 45,000 to 4.548 million
New orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2010 decreased 1.1% from April, to $192.0 billion. Excluding
transportation, new orders increased 0.9% from the prior month, to $145.1 billion
Real gross domestic product (GDP) grew at an annual rate of 2.7% in the Q1-2010, following an increase of 5.6% in Q4-2009
26 June 2010
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INDUSTRIAL UPDATES
Copper mines in Zambia, Africa's top producer, are back in full production after a nationwide blackout halted output last week.
Power blackouts are frequent and are a concern for the foreign companies who own most of the mines in N-W provinces
The world copper market moved to deficit in of 1,000 tonnes in Q1-2010, compared with a surplus of 139,000 tonnes a year
ago when demand was down due to the global recession. The International Copper Study Group stated the output totaled 4.615
million tonnes while consumption was at 4.616 million
Chinese demand for primary aluminium is likely to nearly triple to 43.6 million tonnes in 2020 from an estimated 15.5 million
tonnes this year, while Alcoa, the world's biggest aluminium producer, said inventories would continue an ascent to record
highs and that it was mulling investment opportunities in thermal and hydropower-rich Iceland
The Japan Copper and Brass Association stated that Japan's output of rolled copper products rose to 72,627 tonnes in May on a
seasonally adjusted basis, up 50.4% from a year earlier
OUTLOOK
The migration of some Wall Street's biggest banks into physical aluminum market is a strategic progression towards creation
of an exchange-traded fund, as per the director of material management with the world's largest aluminum producer, Alcoa.
There is plenty of risk capital to finance metal—being one of the reasons why the ETFs are becoming more attractive
Australia, the largest shipper of iron ore and coal, is likely to alter rather than scrap a proposed mining tax of 40% after the
appointment of new Prime Minister Julia Gillard. The mining majors like BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto has stopped their
campaigns after this news and the shares of the companies rose
China is considering raising processing standards for used lead-acid batteries—that may boost extraction rates and production
of recycled lead. A higher production could mean a supply rise for the world given the country is the world's top producer
The data release from the US includes Personal Income and Spending, ISM Manufacturing, Vehicle Sales, Unemployment rate,
change in Non-farm payrolls, Initial Jobless Claims, and Continuing Claims. As per the Bloomberg expectations, most of the data
releases are disconcerting in the market as thus would pressurize prices to wade low
Next week, the base metal complex might see a correction after the long rally in the previous week. The off-putting data
releases might curb the demand for industrial metals as suggested by falling vehicle sales and less jobs being added in both
private and government sector. Weakening job market could reduce consumer spending which subsequently derail the overall
economic growth. Consumer confidence measure is also expected to decline further. Factory orders are likely to turn down
hopes of recovery. Manufacturing activities are uninspiring, suggested by ISM manufacturing and ISM prices paid. Overall
prices are expected to take a respite, while weaker dollar could limit the downside
Indices Last Week This Week % ChangeDow Jones Ind. Avg. 10450.64 10143.81 -2.94%S&P 500 Index 1117.51 1076.76 -3.65%FTSE 100 Index 5250.84 5046.47 -3.89%Nikkie 225 9995.02 9737.48 -2.58%Shanghai Composite 2513.22 2552.82 1.58%Sensex 17570.82 17574.00 0.02%
Currency Last Week This Week % ChangeDollar Index 85.699 85.313 -0.45%
EUR/USD 1.2388 1.2369 -0.15%GBP/USD 1.4824 1.5063 1.61%
USD/INR 46.1744 46.29 0.25%
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LME 3-Forward S $ 1749 R $ 1963
MCX- July S 80 R 92
Zinc –July MCX: Buy in the range 83-84 targeting 89 then
94 with stop loss at 81
LME 3-Forward S $1700 R $1967
MCX- July S 79 R 90
TECHNICAL PREFACE
LME ZINC
Zinc-3month Forward-LME: Zinc prices traded higher for
the whole week by posting a gain of 8.2%. Last week,
market made a high of 1893.75 and finally settled at 1873.
Market has broken trend line resistance at 1783 in
penultimate week thereafter prices is witnessing higher
highs and higher lows in short-term trend suggesting
bullish view for the week. As per Fibonacci principles,
market has broken 23.6% retracement (2550-1578
moves) at 1807.64 sustain above the same likely to trade
with positive bias. After seven week’s prices have managed
to sustain above 13, 22 EMA (daily) suggesting market may
bounce back (In uptrend) after correction. On daily charts,
RSI (14) have ascended from 0.25 to 0.51 implying prices
have potential to move northwards. Overall above analysis
implies that market is expected to trade sideways to higher
for the week
Recommendation: Zinc- 3month Forward-LME - Buy in
the range 1822-1818 targeting 1950 then 2064 with stop
loss at 1746
LME LEAD
Lead -3month Forward-LME: Lead prices traded higher
for first half of the week and witnessed sideways
movement for second half by posting gain of 4.01 %. Last
week, market made a high 1850 and closed at 1815. As per
Fibonacci, principles market is witnessing support at
23.6% retracement (2400-1533 moves) at 1738 sustain
above the same likely to trade sideways to higher. After
seven week’s prices have managed to sustain above 13, 22
EMA (daily) suggesting market may bounce back (In
uptrend) after correction. Last five trading session market
is witnessing movement in the range 1850-1760 level
break on either side will create fresh momentum. Overall
above analysis implies that market is expected to trade
sideways to higher
Recommendation- Sideways
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TECHNICAL PREFACE
LME 3-Forward S $6436 R $ 7214
MCX- June S 295 R 330
LME 3-Forward S $17905 R $20580
6
MCX- June S 852 R 951
LME 3-Forward S $1902 R $2085
MCX- June S 89 R 96
ALUMINIUM
NICKEL COPPER
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INVENTORY UPDATE
The reporting period, for a day’s stock movement in and out of LME registered warehouses is from 16.30 of the previous day until
16.30 on the day to which the stock report refers. The stock report is then released for the market everyday at 9.00 of the following
day. In India, we get the report at 14:30 IST. Cancelled tonnage represents tonnage waiting for the owner’s instructions to the
warehouse company for removal from the warehouse, or possibly re-issue of warrants. These warrants are no longer freely
available for trading. Cancelled warrants ratio represents the percentage of cancelled tonnage from the total closing stock,
suggesting the amount of inventory actually marked for delivery on daily basis.
6000
6200
6400
6600
6800
7000
7200
0.02
0.025
0.03
0.035
0.04
0.045
0.05
0.055
0.06
0.065
0.07
5/1
1
5/1
3
5/1
7
5/1
9
5/2
1
5/2
5
5/2
7
6/1
6/3
6/7
6/9
6/1
1
6/1
5
6/1
7
6/2
1
Copper Cancelled Ratio LME Copper Cash ($/MT)
18000
18500
19000
19500
20000
20500
21000
21500
22000
22500
23000
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
0.07
0.08
5/1
1
5/1
3
5/1
7
5/1
9
5/2
1
5/2
5
5/2
7
6/1
6/3
6/7
6/9
6/1
1
6/1
5
6/1
7
6/2
1
Nickel Cancelled Ratio LME Nickel Cash
1500
1600
1700
1800
1900
2000
2100
2200
0.005
0.01
0.015
0.02
0.025
0.03
0.035
0.04
0.045
0.05
5/1
1
5/1
3
5/1
7
5/1
9
5/2
1
5/2
5
5/2
7
6/1
6/3
6/7
6/9
6/1
1
6/1
5
6/1
7
6/2
1
Zinc Cancelled Ratio LME Zinc Cash
1500
1600
1700
1800
1900
2000
2100
0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.1
0.12
5/1
1
5/1
3
5/1
7
5/1
9
5/2
1
5/2
5
5/2
7
6/1
6/3
6/7
6/9
6/1
1
6/1
5
6/1
7
6/2
1
Lead Cancelled Ratio LME Lead Price ($/MT)
Commodity Previous week This week Change % Change
Copper 457425 454250 -3175 -0.69%
Zinc 618025 616550 -1475 -0.24%
Aluminium 4474175 4446400 -27775 -0.62%
Lead 189800 188800 -1000 -0.53%
Nickel 129798 126312 -3486 -2.69%
LME WAREHOUSE STOCKS (In tonnes)
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BASIS CHARTS
Backwardation is a market where spot prices exceed future prices while Contango is the opposite, where future prices
exceed spot prices. We have, here, considered LME Cash prices and LME 3-month forward contract. Contango seems to be
an obvious condition in the market as future prices tend to be higher because of cost-of-carry involved. The scale is:
$/tonne.
20
23
26
29
32
35
38
41
12
/14
/…
12
/24
/…
1/3
/10
1/1
3/1
0
1/2
3/1
0
2/2
/10
2/1
2/1
0
2/2
2/1
0
3/4
/10
3/1
4/1
0
3/2
4/1
0
4/3
/10
4/1
3/1
0
4/2
3/1
0
5/3
/10
5/1
3/1
0
5/2
3/1
0
6/2
/10
6/1
2/1
0
6/2
2/1
0
Aluminium
Backwardation
Conta
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2/
22
/1
0
3/
1/
10
3/
8/
10
3/
15
/1
0
3/
22
/1
0
3/
29
/1
0
4/
5/
10
4/
12
/1
0
4/
19
/1
0
4/
26
/1
0
5/
3/
10
5/
10
/1
0
5/
17
/1
0
5/
24
/1
0
5/
31
/1
0
6/
7/
10
6/
14
/1
0
6/
21
/1
0
Backwardation
ContangoCopper
10
15
20
25
30
35
2/2
2/1
0
3/1
/10
3/8
/10
3/1
5/1
0
3/2
2/1
0
3/2
9/1
0
4/5
/10
4/1
2/1
0
4/1
9/1
0
4/2
6/1
0
5/3
/10
5/1
0/1
0
5/1
7/1
0
5/2
4/1
0
5/3
1/1
0
6/7
/10
6/1
4/1
0
6/2
1/1
0
Backwardation
Contango
Lead
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2/
22
/1
0
3/
1/
10
3/
8/
10
3/
15
/1
0
3/
22
/1
0
3/
29
/1
0
4/
5/
10
4/
12
/1
0
4/
19
/1
0
4/
26
/1
0
5/
3/
10
5/
10
/1
0
5/
17
/1
0
5/
24
/1
0
5/
31
/1
0
6/
7/
10
6/
14
/1
0
6/
21
/1
0
Backwardation
Contango
Nickel
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2/
22
/…
3/
1/
10
3/
8/
10
3/
15
/…
3/
22
/…
3/
29
/…
4/
5/
10
4/
12
/…
4/
19
/…
4/
26
/…
5/
3/
10
5/
10
/…
5/
17
/…
5/
24
/…
5/
31
/…
6/
7/
10
6/
14
/…
6/
21
/…
Backwardation
ContangoZinc
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COMEX MARKET PERFORMANCE
Commodity Previous Week This Week Change % Change
Copper 288.4 309.55 21.15 7.33%
PRICES (USD/LB)
Commodity Previous week This week Change % ChangeCopper 101925 101925 0 0.00%
WAREHOUSE STOCKS (In tonnes)
Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Report- Copper
Non-Commercial 6/15/2010 6/22/2010 Change % Change
Long 33306 33374 68 0.20%
Short 31870 31901 31 0.10%
Spreading 20044 21760 1716 8.56%
Commercial
Long 72502 71285 -1217 -1.68%
Short 71463 70137 -1326 -1.86%
Total
Long 125852 126419 567 0.45%
Short 123377 123798 421 0.34%
CFTC Report - Copper (In contracts)
SHANGHAI MARKET PERFORMANCE
Commodity Previous Week This Week Change % ChangeCopper 51700 56210 4510 8.72%
Zinc 14050 17995 3945 28.08%Aluminum 14350 16515 2165 15.09%
PRICES (CNY/MT)
Commodity Previous week This week Change % Change
Copper 135944 123939 -12005 -8.83%
Zinc 267740 264843 -2897 -1.08%
Aluminium 498008 496853 -1155 -0.23%
WAREHOUSE STOCKS (In tonnes)
According to the US CFTC data, the market’s movement
was higher last week, as the prices recovered after a spate
of long fall. Last week investors entered the markets to take
advantage of price recovery and thus went for bargain
buying at low levels. The overall spread in non-commercial
sector rose to 8.56% to 21,760 positions from the prior
20,044. However, in the commercial sector, long positions
fell by 1.68% while short positions by 1.86%. Among the
total group, the long positions rose modest by 0.45% while
the short positions rose by 0.34%. The market is expecting
high volatility as the change in long and short is almost
equated. This suggests that investors try to buy and hold for
very short duration owing to high volatility in the market.
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CALENDAR SPREAD
Calendar Spreads is the difference between the two futures contracts, far-month-contract and near-month-contract. For
Copper, we have considered June ‘10 and August ‘10 at MCX while for other 4 metals, June‘10 and July‘10 contracts at MCX have
been taken into account for calculating calendar spreads.
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
Aluminium Spread
Contango
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5Copper Spread
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8Nickel Spread
Contango
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4Lead Spread
Contango
Backwardation
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4Zinc Spread Contango
Backwardation
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STEEL
Commodity Contracts Open High Low Close
Close
% Change Volume
Volume %
Change
Open
Interest
Open Interest %
Change
July 23400 24260 23310 23910 2.40% 99210 -12.72% 68150 -10.88%
August 23770 24670 23770 24390 2.69% 24140 157.36% 12530 62.31%
September 24440 25050 24100 24750 2.48% 3200 900.00% 1100 155.81%
Steel NCDEX
(Rs/tonnes)
The active steel July futures contract wade range bound for the week, while rallied on the last day due to some delay in
monsoon expected. Prices gained 2.40% to settle at Rs.23,910/tonnes. Overall industry & its participants are moving towards
consolidation
Excess supply of material or early rolling back decision for production cuts made during 2009 can be the main reason for the
present steel scenario across the world
There are huge imports of HR coils that have happened from china into India till recently which could put further pressure on
the primary steelmakers to reduce prices or increase rebates in the next month i.e. July 2010
With Steel prices dropping in, mismatch between production capacity & demand shows utmost requirement for production
cuts across the nation among all the steel makers
Week ahead we expect Steel Long NCDEX prices to move in range of Rs. 23,200- 24,400/tonnes
23000
23500
24000
24500
25000
25500
26000
26500
27000
05000
10000150002000025000300003500040000450005000055000600006500070000750008000085000
Open Interest Volume Closing Price
400
420
440
460
480
500
520
540
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500 Open Interest Volumes Closing Prices
NCDEX- Steel Long PVO chart LME- 3-month Forwards Steel Billets
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900 Steel Spread
Contango
100
200
300
400
500
600
700 Steel Spread
Contango
NCDEX Steel (August- July Calendar Spread) NCDEX Steel (September- August Calendar Spread)
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DATA RELEASES SCHEDULED FOR THE WEEK AHEAD
Date Time Region Event Period Survey Prior
06/28/2010 18:00 US Personal Income MAY 0.50% 0.40%
06/28/2010 18:00 US Personal Spending MAY 0.10% 0.00%
06/28/2010 GE Consumer Price Index (MoM) JUN P 0.10% 0.10%
06/29/2010 14:30 EC Euro-Zone Indust. Confidence JUN -6 -6
06/29/2010 14:30 EC Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence JUN F -17 -17
06/29/2010 14:30 EC Euro-Zone Economic Confidence JUN 98.1 98.4
06/29/2010 14:30 EC Euro-zone Services Confidence JUN 3 3
06/29/2010 19:30 US Consumer Confidence JUN 62.5 63.3
06/30/2010 02:30 US ABC Consumer Confidence 27-Jun - - -43
06/30/2010 13:25 GE Unemployment Change (000's) JUN -23K -45K
06/30/2010 13:25 GE Unemployment Rate (s.a) JUN 7.70% 7.70%
06/30/2010 14:30 EC Euro-Zone CPI Estimate (YoY) JUN 1.50% 1.60%
06/30/2010 17:45 US ADP Employment Change JUN 60K 55K
06/30/2010 19:15 US Chicago Purchasing Manager JUN 59 59.7
07/01/2010 06:30 CH PMI Manufacturing JUN 53.2 53.9
07/01/2010 08:00 CH HSBC Manufacturing PMI JUN - - 52.7
07/01/2010 11:30 GE Retail Sales (MoM) MAY 0.40% 1.00%
07/01/2010 13:25 GE PMI Manufacturing JUN F 58.1 58.1
07/01/2010 13:30 EC PMI Manufacturing JUN F 55.6 55.6
07/01/2010 18:00 US Initial Jobless Claims 26-Jun 460K 457K
07/01/2010 18:00 US Continuing Claims 19-Jun 4570K 4548K
07/01/2010 19:30 US ISM Manufacturing JUN 59 59.7
07/01/2010 19:30 US ISM Prices Paid JUN 72 77.5
07/01/2010 19:30 US Construction Spending MoM MAY -0.60% 2.70%
07/01/2010 19:30 US Pending Home Sales MoM MAY -15.20% 6.00%
07/02/2010 02:30 US Domestic Vehicle Sales JUN 8.84M 9.14M
07/02/2010 02:30 US Total Vehicle Sales JUN 11.40M 11.64M
07/02/2010 14:30 EC Euro-Zone PPI (MoM) MAY 0.30% 0.90%
07/02/2010 14:30 EC Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate MAY 10.10% 10.10%
07/02/2010 18:00 US Change in Private Payrolls JUN 113K 41K
07/02/2010 18:00 US Change in Nonfarm Payrolls JUN -110K 431K
07/02/2010 18:00 US Unemployment Rate JUN 9.80% 9.70%
07/02/2010 18:00 US Change in Manufact. Payrolls JUN 20K 29K
07/02/2010 19:30 US Factory Orders MAY -0.50% 1.20%
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By:
Vinita Goyal Fundamental Analyst [email protected]
Afraz Khan Technical Analyst [email protected]