25th-26th February 2010, Wageningen Global Conference on Agricultural Research for Developement (GCARD)Second workshop of the Assessments/Projections/Foresights Seminar

Comments on the secondSCAR Foresight exercise

Egizio Valceschiniegizio.valceschini@paris.inra.fr

Directeur de recherche à l’INRAFrench Representative at the Standing Committee on Agricultural Research

What is SCAR?Standing Committee for Agricultural Research

http://europa.eu.int/comm/research/agriculture/scar/index_en.cfm

• In 1974 the Council of the EU established SCAR with the mandate to advise the Commission and the Member States on the coordination of agricultural research in Europe.

• In 2004, transfer of SCAR from DG Agriculture to DG Research.

• In 2005, SCAR was given a renewed mandate from the Council to give inputs to all research areas of the Knowledge Based Bio Economy (KBBE) and to set up a coherent European research agenda for agriculture.

• SCAR is made up of the 27 EU MS, with delegates from Candidate Countries and Associated Countries as observers.

• The delegates are in charge of national public agricultural research programmes and the group is chaired by the Director « Biotechnologies, Agriculture and Food » of the European Commission DG Research.

Agreement on priority research topicsIdentify Scenarios

Foresight Conference June 2007

Input to FP7SP Theme 2 : FAB

Regular Survey & Alert Mechanism

Collaborative Working Groups

Report on gaps, trends & needs

Proposals of new, sharing existing, infrastructures

EUROPEAN RESEARCH AREA FOR AGRICULTURE

ERA-Netproposals

EC report to EP and Council end 2008

1. FORESIGHT PROCESS 3. MAPPING

EU CAPACITIES

Mapping Activities

Mapping Infrastructures

SCAR initiatives towards a European Research Area for Agriculture

Identify priority research needs

4. Communication SCAR WEBSITE

SCARSCARWGWG

2. COMMON RESEARCH AGENDAS

Joint Programming

Foresight process4 scenarios

• Climate Shock starts with climate change and the acceleration of related environmental impacts as the driving disruption factor

• Energy Crisis focuses on the energy supply vulnerability of Europe as the key disruption factor and the acceleration of related economic and societal impacts as the key drivers.

• Food crisis focuses on food connected to health and society as a source of disruption jointly determining a more community and consumer-oriented research agenda

• Cooperation with nature focuses on society and science and technology as key joint drivers evolving in a beneficially symbiotic relationship

COMMENTS BY THE SCAR-WG ON THE2ND FORESIGHT REPORT

Comments can be designed in various ways in relation to an analysis of such a width and complexity as the current SCAR 2nd foresight report developed for and commissioned by SCAR.

Six aspects (issues) have been selected by the SCAR because they either provide an interesting approach, they signal something new or they draw the attention to the fact that things are changing faster than expected three years ago (2006).

With this selection the SCAR wants to highlight in its own reflection.

The 6 issues are:

• The complexity of the new challenges• The earlier insufficient assessment of the speed

of climate change• The vulnerability of the food system• The interlinkages reflecting the demands on

paths towards sustainable developmentIn addition to these four items reflections on the

implications for• The research and innovation needs and• The governance design

What will matter in 2030?The challenge of scarcity

Three interlinked scarcity issues are converging and reinforcing each other, all with security implications:

• climate change -> proceeding much faster than expected

• energy security -> easily accessible oil & gas will not match demand

• environmental degradation -> weakens resilience & services of ecosystems

These scarcity issues are already starting to make

themselves felt today and are expected to become much

more significant by 2030.

• In the light of the new scarcities already visible by now the consultants question whether “more of the same technical fittings” (more fertilizer, better seeds and irrigation) are the right approach to lead to a sustainable development path in the longer term.

• The consultants highlight the importance of linking the broader approach of vulnerability with the concepts of ecosystem services and sustainable development.

• More research efforts are needed to understand not only the functioning of ecosystems but also their criticality. Such complex challenges need complex approaches as well. These should involve a broad range of disciplines also from outside the traditional agricultural sector

• The SCAR acknowledges the value of the proposed vulnerability concept which opens up a wider resilience perspective beyond the “narrow” view of food security.

• While it is clear that progress towards a more sustainable development path is urgently needed, it is less clear from the report how the necessary productivity increases or efficiency gains can be achieved without technological breakthroughs or quantum leaps in innovation.

• The foresight questions whether the existing public Agricultural Knowledge Systems (AKS) in Europe, which has been under-funded for years, is well equipped and prepared to deal effectively with these highly dynamic changes demanding for solutions 20 years from now.

• An overriding SCAR comment is that the “increased speed” of the climate induced challenges also drives the need to transform the agricultural knowledge based system faster than has earlier been perceived.

• The necessary adaptations/corrections in the AKS and governance systems have to cope with faster change in the future. Thus the system of knowledge generation need to reform with quite some speed.

It seems important:

• To further explore the full range of possibilities to reduce GHG emissions and to mitigate climate change effects associated to “the agricultural sector”

• To understand not only the functioning of ecosystems but also their criticality. The resilience of the combined bio- and socio/economic systems is at the heart of the challenges.

• This has strong implications for the knowledge that is needed to be generated related to issues that pertain to “agriculture” but which have a much wider base than a “specific sector”. The systems approaches needed have to be highlighted

Main Messages of 2nd Foresight

Policy agenda in next years will have to concentrate on 4 important questions:

• How to mitigate & adapt to climate change (urgent; role for agriculture)?

• How to ensure food & energy security for 9 Billion by 2050?

• How to conserve global public goods?

• How to reduce vulnerability of social, economic and ecological systems?

As a conclusion

• It is important to have a functioning foresight monitoring and early warning mechanism in place which is capable to identify possible threats and likely developments as well as opportunities not only to alert but also to provide a better evidence base for future research policy orientation and research agenda setting.

Joining up the dots betweenthe three scarcity issues

• These scarcity issues are interlinked and not isolated from each other!

• Any action in one area needs to take the other two into account

• because of the many feedback loops between the three.• All three scarcity issues have serious security

implications and potential for an escalating geopolitical situation as well.

• There is an urgent need to get a much better understanding of the key linkages and feedback loops of these scarcity issues for agriculture and food security, for energy security and for environmental sustainability! And we need to achieve it fast!

Type of questions to be addressed by the Consultants

What does the accelerating climate change in combination with the environmental degradation mean for agricultural production & food security?

Which are the most likely issues that may affect agricultural production andfood security?

Which specific research problems are linked to these?

How to prepare for these?

What are their possible implications for the agricultural knowledge systems?

Type of questions to be addressed by the Consultants

What does the expected scarcity of oil and gas in combination with the environmental degradation mean for agricultural production & food security?

What are the the potential impacts of surging fuel prices on agricultural production and food security?

What is necessary to make the food system more sustainable?

Which specific research problems have to be solved to avoid shocks and ease the transition phase?

What are their possible implications for the agricultural knowledge systems?

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The public research agenda will be key to whether our food production system will be able to master the transition to a sustainable model of production under the new scarcities expected within the next two decades!

Climate Change

World Population

Fossil resources,

land, water, biodiv.

Major global challenges: we have to face the realities ahead of us

Food & Feed demand

Energy demand

Ecosystem Service

s

Scarcity issue: Climate Change

Remarkable challenge to meet Europe‘s goal to limit global warming to 2° C!

4th IPCC-Report projects serious climate impacts above 2° C for food production, access to water, the environment and health.

Today temperature is almost 0.8° C above pre-industrial level affecting food production and food security already now. Especially extreme weather events are expected to increase yield variability making farming more risky, especially in those regions which are already food insecure.

This situation is further exacerbated by water scarcity, environmental degradation, the spread of diseases, increasing energy costs, all rising uncertainties about global food security and geopolitical stability.

To meet the projected demand by 2030, cereal production will have to increase by 50% and meat production by 85%. Added to this a rising biofuel demand!

Scarcity issue: Energy

By 2030, the global energy needs will be over 50% higher than today.

While population has increased 6-fold between 1800 and today, economic output increased about 70-fold resulting in a 35-increase in primary energy. Several oil companies stated recently that supply constraints are likely to put world oil markets under growing pressure that could push oil prices to hit 150 $ as early as 2010.

Agricultural food production systems and world food supply are heavily dependent on fossil fuels throughout the entire production and value chain.

Higher oil prices will translate into higher food prices while at the same time the growing world population is demanding more and different kinds of food.

In order to halt global warming a retreat from oil dependence is necessary. Biofuels from biomass may be an alternative to fossil energy if they do not come at the expense of cropland or clearing land.

Environmental scarcity

Over the past 50 years humans have changed ecosystems more rapidly than ever in history with serious consequences for biodiversity and ecosystem services. Global demand for water has tripled in the last 50 years.

Our ecological footprint now exceeds the world‘s ability to regenerate by 25%.

Some 20-30% of species are at risk of getting extinct after 2°C warming. In tropical countries even moderate warming can reduce yields significantly because many crops are already at their limit of heat tolerance.

Half a billion people live in countries short of water and by 2050 this will rise to more than 4 billion. Many countries are already depending on food trade, importing virtual water. The depletion of groundwater stocks from which over 99% of the world‘s fresh water comes, is of particular concern.

Global food demand is expected to rise by 50% until 2030 putting additional stress on the environment and ecosystems services.