24 may 2004world energy modeling global energy modeling dick lawrence berlin 2004 photo from jim...

24 May 2004 World Energy Modeling

Global Energy Modeling

Dick Lawrence

Berlin 2004

Photo from Jim Baldauf


AgendaIntroductions – who’s hereWhy we are herePresentationDiscussion• Is this the right thing to do?• What does the project look like? How many people, and who?• Modeling expertise?• University connections?• How is it funded? Sponsoring organizations?• Time frame: start => end• Modeling tools

ARs – • What do we do next?• When do we meet next?


Energy Matters 1“Energy is at the core of virtually every problem

facing humanity. We cannot afford to get this wrong. We should be skeptical of optimism that the existing energy industry will be able to work this out on its own.”

Testimony of witness Dr. Richard E. Smalley to the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources – Full Committee Hearing on sustainable low-emission electricity generation, 27 April, 2004

Dr. Smalley is Director of the Carbon Nanotechnology Laboratory at Rice University


Energy Matters 2

“… the momentous decisions we take in the next few years will determine whether our heirs thank us or curse us for the energy choices we bequeath to them.”

Alex Kirby, BBC News Online environment correspondent, 19 April 2004


Everything Depends on Energy

Whatever cause motivates you will be a lost cause if we do not have the energy to sustain society, industry, and agriculture in something like its present form …

• Raising standard of living in developing nations• Reducing disease and illiteracy• Eliminating hunger and famine in Africa, Asia,

South America• “Sustainable development” and economic growth• Extending democratic institutions around the world


Energy? Not a Problem … Right?Why is it so hard to communicate the Peak Oil message?

• The Boy Who Cried Wolf … “we’ve heard that before”• “They’re always finding more oil!” (true, but …)• Reserves/production = “40 years, at present rate of use”

Acknowledging Peak Oil is only the first step toward understanding the problem:

• “OK, I buy your Peak Oil story, but market forces will ensure adequate energy for everyone – when prices go up, people will find alternatives!” (free-market theory)

• “OK, I buy your Peak Oil story, but we’ve got 40 years for science and technology to come through with something!” (they always did, before)


Everyone Agrees “Peak Oil” is Just a Matter of Time

But… huge uncertainty as to WHEN1. Optimistic or contradictory oil and gas projections

lead to complacency and confusion2. No agreement on consequences of peak oil,

whenever it comes

Result: Little has been done since oil crisis of 1973 - • Contribution of “renewables” still very small• Nuclear is practically at a standstill• Economic recovery leading to record consumption

of oil, gas, and coal => what about global warming?


Huge Disagreement!

1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040

OPEC

USA

ROW-Russia

World

0

100

80

60

40

20

120

URR Accordingto ASPO

URR Accordingto USGS, IEA, …

URR = ~2 Trillion Bbl1+ Trillion Remaining

URR = 3 Trillion Bbl2+ Trillion Remaining

Energy Future According to ASPOEnergy Future According to USGS

How can something this important have so much uncertainty? (+/-100%!)


1) No Agreement on Crude Oil URR

• Unreliable, missing, or unbelievable reserve numbers

• Variable estimates for “reserve growth” applied at global level

• How much “Yet to Be Discovered” exists?• Disagreement on impact of new technology• Uncertainty re. relation of price to exploration,

discovery, and extraction rates• Wildly-varying estimates for future production rates

and URR for tar sands, Venezuela heavy, shale oil


2) More Reasons for Confusion and Complacency

For every Fossil-Fuel alarmist, there is another expert saying “No problem”

Opinions run the gamut:• Utopian scenarios of fusion-enabled hydrogen-

fueled industry, transport, and agriculture• Magical reversion to 18th-century way of life• Cataclysmic scenarios of war, starvation, death

Without science or numbers behind them, all opinions are equally valid


Oil Demand Exceeding Expectations

Population – world population projected to continue rising past 2050 or later (9-10 B)

Industrial development – China’s oil imports rise 30+% in 2003, surpasses Japan; India and rest of SE Asia also exploding demand

Middle-class aspirations in China, India

Although losing industry, N American demand continues to rise – transport, electricity, gas

Rest of world coming out of recession – EIA repeatedly raising estimates of demand


Agriculture Agriculture was once very labor-intensive in human and animal power; what will substitute for fossil fuels now that we number 6.4 billion (heading for 9 to 10 billion) ?

US horse population peaked in 1915 at 25 million; 20% of all arable US land was used to feed horses. US humans numbered 100 million. In 2015, expect 300M people.

We have never seen a plan for feeding 9 billion people without fossil fuel!


The Big Picture – Oil Production over History

1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040

OPEC

USA

ROW-Russia

World

1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040

OPEC

USA

ROW-Russia

World

20601920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040

OPEC

USA

ROW-Russia

World

20601920 1960 2000 2040

OPEC

USA

ROW-Russia

World

20801880 2000

OPEC

USA

World

21001900

ROW-Russia

2000 210019001800 22002000 210019001800 22001700 23000

100

80

60

40

20

M bbl/day

?


What the World Needs NowBetter data on reserves, production capability

(Simmons, Bakhtiari, Campbell et al) – improve forecasts of future oil, gas production

A good world energy model (us, here) – improve our ability to:• Accompany ASPO’s Peak Oil message with

energy modeling to show its implications• Understand consequences of decisions made• Analyze relative feasibility and net energy of

future energy scenarios


Complex Systems Modeling HistoryBig Studies• Limits to Growth (Meadows et al 1972)• Beyond Oil (Gever, Kaufmann, Skole, Vorosmarty

1986, 1991)

Techniques, Papers, Books• HT Odum, Cutler Cleveland, Charles Hall …

Modeling Software and Systems• Must handle hundreds of variables, complex

feedback relationships• Limits to Growth – IBM mainframe, MIT• Beyond Oil – Fortran on a Prime supermini• Now: Stella – dynamic systems modeling software,

used by Richard Duncan and others


Linking Multiple Models• There are many different “energy models”,

most dealing with one aspect of energy – typically focusing on supply only, or demand only, or one particular type of energy

• Imagine a modeling structure that could tie several models together: output of one model (for example) can be input to another;

• No model known tackles the problem in a holistic, worldwide and integrated way; we want to understand the implications of an integrated supply and demand model, for all types of energy


• Raise awareness of fossil-fuel depletion and its consequences for global policy makers, decision makers

• Analyze and quantify the consequences of fossil-fuel depletion on agriculture, industry, commerce and homes

• Show the impact of different rates of adoption for various mixes of renewable/fossil/nuclear sources

• Make world energy information program-accessible, in one database, in standardized format

• With standardized and rigorous ERoEI methodology, show what mix of conventional and renewable energies has the best outcome – point the way, avoid dead ends

What’s an Energy Model Good For?


What’s an Energy Model Good For? (detail)

• Impact of ERoEI on URR (example)• Impact of ERoEI on NET ENERGY (example)• Quantify impact of delaying investment in

alternatives (example)• Critical analysis of alternative energy sources

– The Hydrogen Economy– Biofuels like ethanol– Tar sands and other unconventional oil– Shale oil– Nuclear power


URR

Impact of ERoEI on URR

Time

Total Energy Invested

Net Energy Return per Energy Invested

Easy

Hard

UnavailableURR


Understanding Net Energy• All energy sources require up-front

investment in energy, as well as $ capital and human effort, to yield a return on that investment

• NET ENERGY: Energy Returned on Energy Invested = ERoEI

• Some investments are better than others

• Some investments are energy losers!

• How can we know which ones to invest in?


The Energy Cost of Energy3% decline per year

Annual contribution from alternate energy source

100 75Cumulative new

energy from investment

Useful Lifetime 25 Years

- NET ENERGY Analysis


The Energy Cost of EnergyA

vaila

ble

(n

et)

En

erg

y af

ter

Inve

stm

ent

Cumulative new energy from

investment

100 7585

60 - NET ENERGY

Analysis


Consequence of Delayed Investment

begin investment before decline

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

Net Energy Production

0 10 20 30 40

Time

Begin investment during decline

From Beyond Oil, fig. 7-1


Comparative Analysis of Future Energy Resources

• Any realistic future contains a mix of energy sources; what’s the best mix?

• Which are the energy losers and dead ends?• Where should we invest our energy and $

capital for the best return (net energy), best long-term sustainable future, and best outcome for the environment?

Good data and a high-quality model will point the way


Model Structure and Organization• Database of best-known world energy information• World energy information is program-accessible• Use of spreadsheets as database inputs, outputs,

and program-to-program intermediary• Can link multiple programs for energy supply,

energy demand, mixes of renewable energy• Peripheral programs may input data on oil & gas

production, demand, population, …• Model output shown as graphs, tables – future

total energy and per-capita net energy by type, by region, by year, as function of scenario


Model Structure (example)

Model Core

DynamicSystem

Simulation(Stella or

similarsoftware)

UN Population

Model

Sp

read

shee

t-d

atab

ase

FutureScenario

Spreadsheet-database

Oil & GasSupplyModel

Sp

read

shee

t-d

atab

ase

EnergyDemandModel

ASPO Oil-GasModel, OPECModel, Wocap

Input data from IEA, BP,USGS,

O&G Journal


Model Attributes

• Transparency– Model inputs are databases / spreadsheets– Database inputs & outputs directly human-viewable as

spreadsheets, or easily converted to spreadsheets– Inner workings of model and underlying assumptions

are visible and easy to understand

• Accessibility– Any reasonably-equipped PC can run the models and

view results– Modeling software is reasonably priced, or shareware,

or free


Model Attributes (detail)

• Linkable– One model can feed into another via standardized

database (e.g. spreadsheet)

• Standardized Database Format– “Oil Export from Nigeria in 1997” goes to predetermined

(Row 97) location in “Africa Production” spreadsheet– Every program has SW modules that tell it where to get

input data, and where to put output data

• Database Structure Has Extensible Detail Level– Data in any cell of a spreadsheet can be sourced from

another page of the spreadsheet, or another spreadsheet – down to oil-field level of detail, if wanted


Example of Per-Country Energy Spreadsheet

Cell A B C D E F

Year Conventional Offshore Deep Water Gas-to-Liquid

Oil Sands Production

059 1959 3.5 0 0 0 0

060 1960 4.6 0 0 0 0

061 1961 4.8 0 0 0 0

062 1962 5.4 0 0 0 0

063 1963 5.8 0.1 0 0 0

064 1964 6.9 0.3 0 0.20 0

065 1965 7.4 2.5 0 0.31 0

066 1966 7.5 5.1 0 0.55 0

Country X


By-Country Database Development

• View adjacent countries as 3D space with energy flows across the boundaries;

• Track all energy flows – all types of fossil-fuel imports, exports; electricity; include storage, gas-to-liquid, refinery gain;

• Show consumption of all types (net energy of typeX in = consumption + storage);

• checking mechanism: (all imports) = (all exports) for each energy type, elec generation & consumption


Tracking Energy Flow Between Countries

“Country” is natural boundary for a spreadsheet – IEA data, BP data, etc. all on per-country basis

•checking mechanism: (all imports) = (all exports) for

each energy type, elec gen’n & cons’n


Building the World Energy ModelWhat’s Needed• Work together and agree on goals, scope, and process• Identify several strong and committed co-sponsoring

organizations• Develop preliminary project and funding plan• Core team of 4-6 experienced staff for 2-3 years, with

solid academic connections & resources• Need a strong visionary leader and experienced modeling

advisors• Identify funding sources to meet staffing requirements• Develop model; use worldwide Internet, academic

connections for data-entry job developing machine-readable database / spreadsheets;

• Agree on initial scenarios, start model runs, document results


Long-Term ProspectFunded team runs scenarios on model, documents

results – but, the need does not end there! World’s need to keep model updated, improve it, run

new scenarios will continue beyond this decade

The People’s Energy Model• Outreach program: Train others to develop and run

scenarios• Continue to refine detail and accuracy in model’s database• Set up energy equivalent to Open Software Foundation for

long-term continuing development, maintenance, and future scenario running

• Could be some great PhD dissertations in this!


End of PresentationIt’s Up to You NowFirst Meeting of The Club of Berlin

Is Now Called to Order

Thanks to Ken Deffeyes and son for the design!

Your Name HereYour Name Here


Backup


Outline & notesThings to add:

need better reserve estimates, more transparency, standardized test & reporting methods; (reserve growth)

The fact that the remaining amount of such a critical resource to global industry, commerce, and civilization as we know it can have such a wide range of estimates ought to be a huge concern for anyone planning more than a decade into the future; governments plan social security, transportation systems,

Need better oil & gas future production estimates

Need robust ERoEI technique and numbers for FF, nuclear, renewable energy sources

Outline:

• Uncertainty over oil, gas reserve estimates 2:1 range

• Complexity of economic/energy analysis: response of price to shortage, response of demand to price,

• Modeling


History and Future of Oil Supply

Oil & NGL’s, from ASPO You are here


Energy Supply• ODAC database for all liquid fuels• Samsam Bakhtiari’s Wocap program

• Projections from the reference case of OPEC’s World Energy Model, “OWEM”

• Richard Shepherd, Maarten van Mourik – see Word doc• Other supply-side programs• Near-term production estimates use known mega-project developments;

longer-term, on basis of known discovery and any other data• breakdown by region• breakdown by type• contribution of fossil fuel alternatives• Take into account all known constraints on development and production• Some “yet-to-be-discovered” will never be discovered due to energy cost

of finding and developing (see Lower48 actual vs. USGS projections)


?

The Supply-Demand Gap

0

1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040

OPEC

USA

ROW-Russia

World

100

80

60

40

20


Energy Demand Trend

• historical; % per year now (1.7%?)

• basis: population, development, growing expectations

• per-capita

• by region

• by use-type

• special mention: China


Energy Demand• If world per-capita energy is to remain constant• Population models or tables (UN) are inputs 1AD

= 170M, 1500 = .5B, 1804 =1B, 1938 2B, now 6.5B; 2.5B bbl/yr to 27B. Avg rate 0.5% for 5K yrs, now 1.3%

• By-country data and trends• Monitor trends in domestic consumption of Oil-

Exporting countries• Tellus Institute model?• Complication: feedback of supply, demand,

mismatch and price => demand


Energy Demand Trend

• historical

• per-capita

• by region

• by use-type


Supply-Demand Mismatch

• No near-term substitute for oil

• US Hubbert peak 1970

• World Hubbert peak (plateau?) 2005-2010

• (highlight the gap btwn production curve and demand curve) – see Bakhtiari


The Mismatch

Show 2 graphs: the pessimist (“realist") version, the optimist (conventional wisdom) versionAsk “how much time do we have left?” for case 1, case 2


Alternative Energy Sources

• alternative contribution now

• hydro, wind, solar, biomass, ...

• hydrogen is not an energy source

• negative ERoEI for methanol, etc.

• capital and energy costs of developing the infrastructure

• estimated ERoEI for each type

• nuclear and coal


Searching for Our Energy Future• Rush to coal will accelerate already-high CO2 growth

• Nuclear is politically problematic– Concern about weapons proliferation

– New issues as terrorist target

– Controversial and unpopular in Europe, N America

• Alternatives to oil– Coal to liquid

– NatGas to liquid

– Tar sands & Shale Oil


Likely energy mix scenario• creation of alternative energy infrastructure large enough to

make a contribution takes capital, and energy• chart from Beyond Oil: per-capita energy decline as function

of delay in transition to alternatives• Run the scenarios with ERoEI, quantify energy diverted to

building/acquiring new infrastructure• Many are convinced we should be undertaking massive

transitions NOW – while FF energy is still cheap and abundant - to renewable / sustainable sources of energy – but can’t prove it

• Not convinced that market “price signals” are working well enough to avert disaster

• A good model should be able to quantify the net-energy impact of delaying deployment of alternative energy sources


The Big Picture

0

4000

1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040

Oil productionOil production

USA

OPEC

ROW-Russia

?

Mio t


The Big Picture• Population trend• Graph of population and fossil-fuel use• Industrialized agriculture• Humans as detritovores, in overshoot• Concept of sustainable population • Leibig’s theory of population constraint; relation to

globalization and increased interdependence• The numbers: est’d peak ~10B; decline to 0.5B-2B

in next 40 years?


The Big Picture (cont’d)• Population and energy

• Malthus, Ehrlich, Jimmy Carter, and the Club of Rome were right

• Factors presently reducing sustainability for post-fossil-fuel humanity– pollution & environmental degradation– soil degradation and aquifer depletion– majority of world fisheries over-fished


Problem Statement: How do we get there from here?

• Historical record not encouraging

• Typical: famine, disease, war

• Resource wars underway?

• Power centers making resource grabs now

• Is there a “soft” way down?


Soft Way Down?

• Population must rapidly stabilize and then decline, or

• Massive transition to non-fossil-fuel sources of energy must begin very soon; it may be too late

• Maximize investment in alternative energy sources, nuclear, ... requires diverting a portion of present cheap energy stream away from current uses

• Reverse current trend of growing inequality; wealth = access to energy = survival


Role of Modeling

• historical

• per-capita

• by region – unlike Limits to Growth, include regional & nation level of detail to encompass huge regional differences in energy production and use

• by use-type


Step 1: World Energy Database

• Enter world energy statistics into software-readable spreadsheet or database

• What’s so great about a spreadsheet?– Human-accessible – most people are familiar with

spreadsheets, can read and modify them easily– Machine-accessible (1)– programs and database

software can extract and use values from sprdsht– Machine-accessible (2)– programs and database

software can insert values and generate graphics– Any PC with the right software can run them


World Energy Database (cont’d)• Put all available energy info into a collection of spreadsheets

• “Country” boundaries are useful convention to distinguish geographical regions – nearly all energy statistics available on per-country basis, may be aggregated to “region” and “world”

• Data from EIA, IEA, BP, O&G Journal, ASPO

• Decide on STANDARD SPREADSHEET FORMAT for the per-country spreadsheet (show example); year on vertical axis, energy type horizontally. Example: Cell 57 J will always be “Conventional oil production in 1957” for a country.

• Output from another model – for example, Mr. Bakhtiari’s Wocap model – can be input to the spreadsheet and to the world energy use model (see ER 56353)

• Any existing program, with simple interface software, can send its output to spreadsheet or get its input from a spreadsheet


Spreadsheets, cont’d• Once we do this right, we’re done; we should never have to go

back and re-enter historical data again, just update each year• Getting the best agreed-on format at the beginning is critical• We may convince other organizations to generate data in

compatible spreadsheet format, so it’s automatically ready for direct program accessibility with no human intervention

• Per-country spreadsheet is “standard” resolution; • May be easily aggregated into geographical regions, up to world

totals• “Drill down” to finer resolution, down to individual fields or

wells – any cell value may come from another spreadsheet or defined mathematical operation on other cells

• Build in “extension” codes to point to additional rows, columns, or other spreadsheets, for expansion and unanticipated data types


Relationship of Spreadsheets to Modeling Programs

• This slide shows a block diagram illustrating how any program can (with small i/f sw) output to a spreadsheet, or input from a spreadsheet; spreadsheet values may also be manually input

• Example inputs: ASPO data (model?); Bakhtiari model; manually entered (mega-project database*); Tellus Institute model for energy demand; may even have models that try to project energy price as function of supply-demand mismatch, energy supply as function of price, and “demand destruction” as function of price

• LOPEX (Tobias Rehrl, IER) - oil supply & demand with cost feedback

• * Petroleum Review, Jan 2004

24 may 2004world energy modeling global energy modeling dick lawrence berlin 2004 photo from jim...

Documents

adequate energy

energy choices

world slide

existing energy industry

modeling expertise

peak oil story

consequences of peak

peak oil message