22/09/2015 1 three authors what is happening in the global environment, oliver sparrow management...
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19/04/23 1
Three authors
What is happening in the global environment, Oliver SparrowManagement capability, Gill RinglandHow organisations can thrive, Patricia Lustig
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Rich nations 15% world population
90% world wealth
Industrialising nations
25% world population
9% world wealth
Poor nations
60% world population
< 1% world wealth
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Commerce
3000
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
1952 1962 1972 1982 1992 2002 ‘09
Consumers
(money of the day: US GDP grew by 8 times in the period)
©Beyond Crisis, Lustig, Ringland, Sparrow, John Wiley 201019/04/23 4
Expenditure $US bn 2008
S&L crisis2009-12 Obama stimulus plan
2008 tranche of the bank bailout
Marshall plan
Louisiana purchase
NASA, less moon shot
Moon shot Korean war
The New Deal
Iraq war
Viet Nam
©Beyond Crisis, Lustig, Ringland, Sparrow, John Wiley 201019/04/23 5
Banking crisis remain chronic, as does state intervention
The economic situation is completely predicated on the banking crisis
Economic situation develops independently
of the banking crisis
Banking crisis is settled relatively quickly
Japan
India
UK US
Middle income industrialising
©Beyond Crisis, Lustig, Ringland, Sparrow, John Wiley 2010
China
Euro zone
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Prolonged depression,
growing statist environment
Slow grind to expunge debt;
some deliberate use of monetary
inflation
Business grows as
before
Slow return to health; US consumer
stage centre
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North AmericaEuropeLatin America
Asia
Africa
World population (billions)
3
6
9
1950 1975 2000 2025
3
6
9 Total world population
Secondary education
Graduate-level education
1850 1900 1950 2000 2025
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8
19881998
2008
AfricaS America
AsiaOceania
N AmericaEurope
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
Ratio of people under 16 years to
people over 45
Time
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Purity
Authority
Affiliation
Fairness
Harm
Relevance to a moral decision
Decreasing traditionalism
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The logarithm of the ratio of the current situation to the probable long term sustainable limit: these have been breached already
0
Carbon dioxide
Species extinction rate
Nitrogen cycle
Phosphorus cycle
Stratospheric ozone depletion
Ocean acidification
Freshwater use
Change in land use
Sustainable limit
©Beyond Crisis, Lustig, Ringland, Sparrow, John Wiley 201019/04/23 11
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Changes
Management styles
The Great Moderation
©2009 Lustig, Ringland, Sparrow19/04/23 14
Better
Worse
Highly defined, specified“efficient”
Loosely defined, unspecified“renewal”
©Beyond Crisis, Lustig, Ringland, Sparrow, John Wiley 201019/04/23 15
Effective at renewal ?
Efficiency
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Asset allocation
Traditional hierarchy
©2009 Lustig, Ringland, Sparrow
Ad hoc activities,
lobbying etc
Present and future operating environment
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Most important sources of innovative ideas
Academia
Internal R&D
Internal support units
Trade shows and exhibitions
Consultants
Customers
Business partners
Employees
©Beyond Crisis, Lustig, Ringland, Sparrow, John Wiley 2010
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Present and future operating environment©2009 Lustig, Ringland, Sparrow
Options Narrative
InsightMac
hin
ery
Valu
es
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Values, e.g.“Engineering excellence”
Narrative, e.g.“Power systems provider, designing, manufacturing and supporting a range of products and services for air, sea and land applications”
©2009 Lustig, Ringland, Sparrow
Trends Range of other uncertainties
Uncertain timing
Single point forecast
Today
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Present and future operating environment
Asset allocation
©2009 Lustig, Ringland, Sparrow
Communication People
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-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
Unit benchmark: nine measures of clarity
Industry ‘best practice’ costs minus actual unit costs, US$/unit of output (0 is good)
0.0
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© 2009 Lustig, Ringland, Sparrow19/04/23 27
Audit of capability
Audit of capability
Organisational & leadership development
Horizon scanning
Scenarios
Asset allocation
Innovation, Road maps,Policy and
strategy
Values
Insight
Machinery
Options
Review
Narrative
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19/04/23 29©2009 Lustig, Ringland, Sparrow