21 dec 2016 · commerce (tcc) chairman vichai assarasakorn estimates thailand’s economic growth...

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Daily Market Outlook

21 Dec 2016

Major Indices Close Chg %Chg

SET 1,511.65 -10.8 -0.7

SET50 944.18 -4.0 -0.4

SET P/E (x) 18.2

SET P/BV (x) 1.9

SET Div. Yield (%) 3.1

Dow Jones 19,974.62 +91.6 +0.5

S&P 500 2,270.76 +8.2 +0.4

NASDAQ 5,483.94 +26.5 +0.5

UK 7,043.96 +26.8 +0.4

Germany 11,464.74 +38.0 +0.3

France 4,849.89 +27.1 +0.6

Japan 19,494.53 +102.9 +0.5

South Korea 2,041.94 +3.6 +0.2

Hong Kong 21,729.06 -103.6 -0.5

China 3,102.48 -15.6 -0.5

Taiwan 9,242.41 +3.1 +0.0

Singapore 2,911.31 -1.8 -0.1

Malaysia 1,634.52 +0.2 +0.0

Indonesia 5,162.48 -29.4 -0.6

Philippines 6,658.66 -55.5 -0.8

Trading Summary Buy Sell Net

Institution 4,829 3,801 1,028

Proprietary 3,838 3,676 162

Foreign 9,131 9,925 -794

Individuals 23,440 23,836 -396

Total Trading Value 41,238 Btmn

Most Active Value Value Close %Chg

GL 2,282 59.50 -10.5 PTT 1,609 364.00 -0.3

ESSO 1,531 12.90 -5.8

STA 1,365 20.10 -8.6 PTTEP 1,050 90.25 -1.9

Commodity Futures Close Chg %Chg

US Crude 52.23 +0.1 +0.2

Brent Crude 55.35 +0.4 +0.8

Gold 1133.30 -9.4 -0.8

FX Rates Close Chg %Chg

USD/THB 36.00 +0.1 +0.4

EUR/USD 1.04 -0.0 -0.2

USD/JPY 117.84 +0.8 +0.7

USD/CNY 6.95 -0.0 -0.1

Source: Bisnews, Bloomberg

Technical picks (support & resistance) VGI (S: 5.15, R: 5.65); WORK (S: 41.25, R: 44.75); HMPRO (S: 9.80, R: 10.50); SET (S: 1,488, R: 1,531)

Stellar performance for Wall Street, but EMs not as thrilled Thai shares look set to edge higher today drawing some support from the record highs of DJIA and Nasdaq overnight although we do not think emerging markets, including Thailand, will enjoy the same stellar performance as Trump’s threat of tariffs will adversely affect export oriented Asia while rising US yields have absorbed funds away. Locally, the Thai Chamber of Commerce (TCC) is very upbeat over the State of the People’s plan to allocate Bt83bn for more than 1,000 projects, covering agriculture, tourism, logistics development, etc., to stimulate local economies. The Cabinet has just approved further cashback awards for GSB’s good borrowers.

Pick of the day: BBL (Bt156.00; BUY; AWS 17TP

Bt203.00)

Bangkok Bank Pcl. is our pick of the day as it stands to benefit

significantly from corporate loan expansion driven by the

government’s infrastructure investments worth as much as

Bt890bn. Examples of the projects include the Pink Line

(Khae Rai – Min Buri) and Yellow Line (Lat Phrao – Samrong)

worth a combined Bt105.3bn, in which BSR Joint Venture

recently won the bid for concessions. Others include the

Orange Line which recently completed the auction and

announced the winners. All of these suggest the much-

awaited infrastructure investments are really rolling out,

meaning there will be an increase in demand for lending to

fund these projects going forward. Although we assume

BBL’s FY17 loans to grow 5%, it is likely loan growth will be

much stronger than our estimate. We also favor BBL for its

superior asset quality as the bank’s 3Q16 coverage ratio was

159.5%, well above the industry average of 129.6%. This high

level of cushion implies its strong capability to guard against

volatility. More importantly, the valuation is very undemanding

as it currently trades at a low PBV of only 0.8x, indicating an

opportunity for investors to accumulate. Our target price of

Bt203.00 offers a 30.1% upside gain to the current price. The

counter also has a decent dividend yield of 4.2-4.5% for 2016-

2017. Though we forecast BBL’s earnings to decline 3.4% in

2016, we expect the bottom line to bounce back next year

growing 7.6%. In terms of price pattern, although BBL’s major

trend cycle is on a downtrend with weekly and monthly sell

signals, the short-term trend has started to strengthen with a

daily buy signal. The first target is Bt164 and the primary

target is Bt177. There is a stop loss at Bt154. (Resistance:

156.50, 157.50, 158.00; Support: 155.50, 155.00, 154.00)

Local issue TCC upbeat over stimulus drive. Thai Chamber of

Commerce (TCC) chairman Vichai Assarasakorn

estimates Thailand’s economic growth next year could be

0.5% higher than the current estimate of 3.5-4.0% if the

State of the People allocate an additional budget of about

Bt83bn under more than 1,000 projects to stimulate local

economies further from the government’s existing

stimulus programs. The projects largely cover agriculture,

tourism and services, trade and investment and logistics

development, which would be proposed for cabinet

consideration early next year. The budget could be

expected to be allocated by the middle of 2017. (Bangkok

Post/The Nation)

Thailand Research Department

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Mr. Warut Siwasariyanon (No.17923) Tel: 0-2680-5041

Mr. Krit Suwanpibul (No.17968) Tel: 0-2680-5090

Mrs. Vajiralux Sanglerdsillapachai (No. 17385) Tel: 0-2680-5077

Mr. Narudon Rusme, CFA (No.29737) Tel: 0-2680-5056

Mr. Napat Siworapongpun, CFA, FRM (No.49234) Tel: 0-2680-5094



S.44 to extend the deadline for digital TV operators Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-

cha yesterday exercised Section 44 of the interim constitution to extend the auction fee

payment period for digital TV operators. Under the order, these operators are allowed

to pay in installments their fourth, fifth, and sixth payments for the auction fees. Each

of the three payments can be paid in two installments over two years on condition that

they must pay 1.5% annual interest. (Bangkok Post) Comment: This should benefit

digital TV operators such as MONO (Bt2.86), WORK (Bt43.00), and RS (Bt7.75),

and may also benefit BBL (Bt156.00; BUY; AWS 17TP Bt203.00) who is one of the

major creditors to the operators.

Cabinet approved financial cost subsidy scheme. The Cabinet yesterday gave a

nod on Government Savings Bank’s plan to give cashback awards to existing debtors

by 30% of interest payments who have good repayment records within the last 12

months with credit lines not exceeding Bt300,000. The scheme also allows other

borrowers to join the program, including those under debt restructuring and those

facing lawsuits from the bank, which the bank will offer loan term extensions along with

a halt on interest payments for rehabilitation progress. (Bangkok Post)

Global issues

US$23bn fund flown out of EMs since Trump’s win: Data from the Institute for

International Finance showed non-resident investors had pulled US$23bn from

emerging market portfolios since early October. The outflows have triggered the

longest continuous "reversal alert" since the organization began issuing the notice in

2005. Concerns have risen since Trump’s presidential election victory as the threat of

tariffs has stirred fears of a trade war while rising US yields have attracted funds away.

(Reuters)

US Treasury prices fell on Tuesday as stocks gained, reducing demand for safe-

haven assets. US benchmark 10-year Treasury notes were last down 6/32 to yield

2.56%, up from 2.54% on Monday. (Reuters)

The dollar climbed to a 14-year high on Tuesday as Federal Reserve Chair Janet

Yellen's comments on jobs reinforced the notion of faster US interest rate hikes next

year than had been expected. The dollar index was up over 0.1% at 103.31 after hitting

103.65, its highest since December 2002. (Reuters)

USA

Wall Street shares gained ground further on Tuesday, with the DJIA and Nasdaq

rising to record highs, in a rally fueled by optimism about US President-elect Donald

Trump's policies. Financials led the advancers, which brought the sector's gain since

the election to 19%, as investors bet Trump will cut regulations including Dodd-Frank,

which was passed in response to the 2008 financial crisis but which some investors

say is too restrictive. (Reuters)

Europe European shares rose slightly on Tuesday, holding near their highest levels since

January, helped by a busy year-end for corporate deal making and more signs that Italy

is making progress on stabilising its wobbly banking sector. (Reuters)

Italian bank rescue plan: Italian government decided to seek parliamentary approval

to borrow €20bn to underwrite the stability of its banks, starting with a likely bail-out of

No. 3 lender, Monte dei Paschi di Siena, as early as this week. (Reuters)



Asia The BOJ kept monetary policy steady and took a more upbeat view of the

economy on Tuesday, raising expectations of a tighter monetary policy in the future.

Reflecting a pick-up in emerging Asian demand and factory output, it upgraded its

language to signal its confidence that the economy is headed for a steady recovery. As

expected, the BOJ kept unchanged its pledge to guide short-term rates at minus 0.1%

and the 10-year JGB yield around 0%. However, the BOJ warned that the Fed’s interest

rate hike cycle could disrupt emerging market capital flows. (Reuters)

Japan’s government plans an initial budget of a record ¥97.45tn (US$830bn) for

fiscal 2017, while keeping new debt issuance just below the 2016’s level. This marks

an increase from this year’s ¥96.7tn, reflecting the higher cost of services for Japan’s

fast-ageing population. The government aims to approve the 2017 budget, which starts

from April 2017, on Thursday. (Reuters)

A major city in China's Shandong province has ordered seven big coal-fired

power plants to cut output by nearly two-thirds as part of a clampdown on pollution

as smog blanketed northern parts of the country. The measures will take effect on

Friday and last as long as the city's current level 2 smog alert is in effect. (Reuters)

China stocks slid on Tuesday, as the authorities tightened regulations to prevent

financial risks and asset bubbles. The PBOC said on Monday it would tighten

supervision of shadow banking businesses by including off-balance sheet wealth

management products, widely viewed as a source of financial risk, into its risk-

assessment framework next year. (Reuters)

Commodities Oil prices rose on Tuesday, touching a one-week high on expectations of a steep

draw in US crude stocks, but edged off gains after Libya announced the reopening of

pipelines after a two-year blockade ended recently. Benchmark Brent crude futures

were up 40 cents (+0.7%) at US$55.32 a barrel after hitting an intraday high of

US$55.92. US crude futures rose 30 cents to US$52.42 a barrel. (Reuters)

Gold fell on Tuesday as the dollar rose and investors sold on expectations of stronger

global economic growth and higher US interest rates, while deadly incidents in Turkey

and Germany failed to spur safe-haven buying. Spot gold was down 0.7% at

US$1,131.18 an ounce, after hitting a session low at US$1,125.23, not far from last

week's 10-1/2-month low of US$1,122.35, its lowest since early February. US gold

futures settled down 0.8% at US$1,133.60. (Reuters)


CG Rating

Score Range Number of Logo Description

90 – 100

80 – 89

70 – 79

60 – 69

50 – 59

Below 50

No logo given

Excellent

Very Good

Good

Satisfactory

Pass

N/A

Corporate Governance Report of Thai Listed Companies (CGR). CG Rating by the Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD) in 2015.

Corporate Governance Report disclaimer

The disclosure of the survey result of the Thai Institute of Directors

Association (“IOD”) regarding corporate governance is made pursuant

to the policy of the Office of the Securities and Exchange Commission.

The survey of the IOD is based on the information of a company listed

on the Stock Exchange of Thailand and the Market for Alternative

Investment disclosed to the public and able to be accessed by a

general public investor. The result, therefore, is from the perspective of

a third party. It is not an evaluation of operation and is not based on

inside information.

The survey result is as of the date appearing in the Corporate

Governance Report of Thai Listed Companies. As a result, the survey

result may be changed after that date, Asia wealth Securities Company

Limited does not conform nor certify the accuracy of such survey result.


CG Rating

ระดบ 1ACD AEONTS AFC AIRA AJ ALUCON AMC AQUA ARIP AUCT BAT-3K BIG BJCBLISS BMCL BOL BRR BSBM CBG CCET CCN CGD CMR CPH CSC CSPCTW DCON DRACO DSGT DTCI E EMC ESSO FOCUS FSMART GIFT GLANDGRAND GUNKUL HFT HTECH IHL ILINK ITD JSP KDH KTIS KTP LEE LSTMAJOR MATCH MAX M-CHAI MDX MIDA ML MPIC NC NEP NNCL NWR OHTLPICO PK PL PPM PRAKIT PRECHA PRIN PSTC PYLON RAM RICH RS SANKOSAUCE SAWAD SAWANG SCN SEAFCO SF SHANG SIRI SMART SMM SOLAR SPACK SPGSPPT SPVI STA STAR SVH SVOA SWC TAPAC TC TCCC TCJ TCOAT THTKS TNH TNPC TPA TPAC TPOLY TRC TRUBB TSE TTA TTI TTL TTTMTWP TWZ U UMS UPA UPOIC UTP UVAN VARO VI VIBHA VIH VTEWG

ระดบ 22S ABICO AF AKP AMARIN AMATA AOT APCO AYUD BEAUTY BFIT BH BKDBLAND BTNC CCP CI CSR CSS EFORL EPCO FE FNS FVC GEL GLOBALHEMRAJ IEC IFS INET JUTHA KASET KCAR KKC KSL L&E LALIN LTX MMALEE MBK MBKET MEGA MK MPG MTLS NCH NCL NPP OCC OCEAN PBPCA PRINC QH ROCK RPC S&J SGP SIAM SIS SKR SMG SMIT SORKONSUSCO TAKUNI TEAM TF TIC TIP TIPCO TMC TMI TPP TRT TRU TRUETSC TSI TTW TVD TVO UKEM UNIQ UWC VNG WIIK WIN XO

ระดบ 3AABC ACAP ADVANC AEC AGE AH AIE AMANAH ANAN AP APCS APURE ASASIA ASIAN ASIMAR BIGC BROOK BTS BWG CEN CENTEL CFRESH CHARAN CHO CHOTICM CNT COL CPALL CPF CPI CPL DELTA DEMCO DIMET DNA DTAC EAECF EE EVER FPI GBX GC GFPT GLOW HMPRO HOTPOT ICC ICHI IFECINOX INSURE IRC JAS JTS JUBILE KC KTC KYE LHK LPN LRH MAKROMC MCOT MFC MFEC MINT MJD MONO MOONG NBC NDR NINE NMG NSINTV OGC PACE PCSGH PDI PG PHOL PLAT PPS PR PRANDA PREB PSQLT RATCH RML ROBINS ROJNA RWI SAMCO SCCC SCG SEAOIL SE-ED SENA SINGERSITHAI SMK SMPC SPALI SPC SPCG SPI SRICHA SSI STANLY SUPER SVI SYMCSYNEX SYNTEC TASCO TCMC TFI THAI THRE THREL TICON TKT TLUXE TNL TPCORPTMILL TMT TSTE TSTH TTCL TU TVI UOBKH UREKA VGI VNT WACOAL WHAZMICO

ระดบ 3BAAV AHC AI AIT AKR ARROW ASK BA BDMS BEC BECL BJCHI BUICGH CHG CHOW CIG CITY CK CKP COLOR CWT EARTH EASON EPG F&DFANCY FIRE FMT FORTH GENCO GL GOLD GPSC GRAMMY HYDRO IRCP IT JCTKCM KWC LH LIT LOXLEY MACO MANRIN MATI MODERN MSC NOBLE NOK NPKNUSA OISHI OTO PAF PAP PATO PF PJW PLANB PLE POLAR PRG PTLQ-CON QTC RCI S11 SALEE SAM SAMART SAMTEL SAPPE SC SCP SFP SIMSLP SMT SPA SPORT SSC SST STEC STPI SUC SUTHA T TAE TBSPTCC TFD TGCI TGPRO THANA THIP TIW TK TMW TNDT TOPP TPC TPCHTPIPL TSR TT TYCN UAC UBIS UEC UMI UP UPF UT UV VPOWAVE WINNER YUASA

ระดบ 4ASP BAFS BANPU BAY BBL BKI BLA CIMBT CNS CSL DCC DRT DTCEASTW ECL EGCO ERW FSS GCAP HANA HTC INTUCH IRPC IVL KBANK KCEKGI KKP KTB LANNA LHBANK MTI NKI PSL PTG PTTEP SABINA SCB SNCSNP SSF SSSC TCAP THCOM TISCO TIMB TMD TNITY TOG

ระดบ 5BCP CPN GYT PE PM PPP PT PTT PTTGC SAT SCC THANI TOP

ไมเปดเผยหรอไมมนโยบายA ACC AJD AQ BCH BGT BROCK BSM BTC CHUO CPR CRANE EICFER JMART JMT KAMART KBS KIAT LDC MBAX MCS METCO NEW NEWS NYTPAE PDG PERM PMTA POST RCL RICHY ROH S SIMAT TCB TR TSFTVT WORKหมายเหตระดบ 1 : มนโยบายระดบ 2 : ประกาศเจตนารมณระดบ 3 : มมาตรการปองกน ซงทง 2 กรณ ถอเปนผลการประเมนในระดบเดยวกน

3A : บรษทมการประกาศเจตนารมณเขารวมโครงการ CAC หรอภาค3B : บรษทมค ามน และนโยบายของบรษท แตมไดประกาศเจตนารมณเขารวมโครงการ CAC หรอภาค

ระดบ 4 : ไดรบการรบรองระดบ 5 : ขยายผลสผท เกยวของ

ขอมล Anti-Corruption Progress Indicator ของบรษทจดทะเบยน

This Report has been prepared by Asia Wealth Securities Company Limited (”AWS”). The information in here has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable and accurate, but AWS makes no representation as to the accuracy and completeness of such information. AWS does not accept any liability for any loss or damage of any king arising out of the use of such information or opinions in this report. Before making your own independent decision to invest or enter into transaction, investors should study this report carefully and should review information relating. All rights reserved. This report may not be reproduced, distributed or published by any person in any manner for any purpose without permission of AWS. Investment in securities has risks. Investors are advised to consider carefully before making investment decisions.

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21 dec 2016 · commerce (tcc) chairman vichai assarasakorn estimates thailand’s economic growth...

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