JUNE 13, 2017

POWER SUPPLY: LONG, MEDIUM AND SHORT TERM DEMANDS

By: ING. WILLIAM AMUNA, CEO

2017 GHANA ENERGY SUMMIT

PRESENTATION OUTLINE

GHANA’S POWER SYSTEM

CURRENT SUPPLY SITUATION

DEMAND PROJECTION

SUB REGIONAL SUPPLY SITUATION

FUEL REQUIREMENTS

WAY FORWARD

RECOMMENDATIONS

GenerationBaseLoad:Hydro&Thermal

MakersVRA,TICo,Sunon Asogli,CENIT,Bui

Power, AKSA, Karpower & Ameri

TransmissionBulk System – High Voltage

MoversSystemOperator&TransmissionOwners

GRIDCo

DistributionLocalSystem

UsersECG,NEDCo,EPC,Bulk

Customers

GHANA’S POWER SYSTEM

CURRENT SUPPLY SITUATION - GENERATION

q Installed Generating Capacity 4205 MWq Embedded / Distributed Generation 47 MWq Some capacity is unavailable due to:

o Natural Gas supply challenges;o Limited liquid fuel stocks;o Relatively low hydrology at the hydro-power plants;o Generating unit outages for Maintenance; ando Generating unit outages due to fault

Voltage Levels : 69, 161, 225, 330 kV

Bulk Substations: 68 nos.

Transmission Network: approx. 5,200 km

Interconnection (WAPP):• Burkina Faso• Togo• Cote D’ivoire

• Transformer Capacity : 4600MVA

• Approx. 80% equipped with OPGW

CURRENT SUPPLY SITUATION - TRANSMISSION

CURRENT SUPPLY SITUATION - DISTRIBUTION

Distribution Companies : ECG , NEDCo and EPC

Energy Consumptionq ECG : 71%q NEDCo: 9%q EPC : 1%q Other Bulk Customers: 19%

ECG Network Statistics33kV : 19,995 km11kV : 20,469 km415V : 68,018 km

NEDCo Network StatisticsMedium Voltage : 12,582 kmLow Voltage : 16,490 km

NEDCo

ECG

SUB-REGIONAL SUPPLY SITUATION

9899

194

627

4935

128

214

2078

1695

182

263

10341

66

90

7376

28

122

1791

192

127

133

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

WAPP

Sogem****

Senegal

Nigeria

Niger

Mali

Ghana

Cote d'Ivoire

Burkina Faso

Benin/Togo|CEB

Available capacity Uavailable Capacity

Available Capacity of Total Installed Capacity for February 2017

Source: (WAPP 2017 )

SUB-REGIONAL SUPPLY SITUATION (2)

Supply and Demand Profile for February 2017

Source: WAPP Feb 2017 Report

160 42

3

4776

46 155

2123

1398

174

134

160 45

4

4447

153

296

2084

1308

224 444

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1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

Soge

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Sene

gal

Nig

eria

Nig

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Mal

i

Gha

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Cot

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re

Burk

ina

Faso

Beni

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Generation [MW] Peak Load

GHANA’S POWER DEMAND - TREND

11371325 1393

12741367 1423

15061664 1729

1943 1971 19332039

2153

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

q All time Peak Load – 2153MW Growth : - 10% p.a(March 17, 2017)

DEMAND PROJECTIONS – Short to Medium term

Year 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Projected System Demand (MW) 2,646 3,128 3,462 3,712 3,828Total Supply Required (Demand +Reserve) 3,308 3,910 4,327 4,640 4,784

Total Dependable Hydro Capacity (MW) 1,120 1,120 1,120 1,120 1,120

Total Dependable Thermal Capacity (MW) 2,362 2,462 2,462 2,462 2,462

Total Existing Renewables (MW) 22.5 22.5 22.5 22.5 22.5COMMITTED GENERATION PROJECTSKarpower Phase II 220 220 220 220 220CENPOWER 360 360 360 360 360Early Power 142 300 400 400 400GPGC 100 100 100 100 100VRA T3 0 120 120 120 120Amandi 0 190 190 190 190

Total Committed Generation (MW) 822 1290 1390 1390 1390

Expected Total Installed Generation (MW) 4,326.50 4,894.50 4,994.50 4,994.50 4,994.50

Surplus (MW) 1,019 985 668 355 211

Year 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Projected SystemDemand (MW) 2,646 3,128 3,462 3,712 3,828Total Supply Required(Demand +Reserve) 3,308 3,910 4,327 4,640 4,784Total Dependable HydroCapacity (MW) 1,120 1,120 1,120 1,120 1,120Total DependableThermal Capacity (MW) 2,362 2,462 2,462 2,462 2,462Total ExistingRenewables (MW) 22.5 22.5 22.5 22.5 22.5

Karpower Phase II 220 220 220 220 220CENPOWER 360 360 360 360 360Early Power 142 300 400 400 400GPGC 100 100 100 100 100VRA T3 0 120 120 120 120Amandi 0 190 190 190 190Total CommittedGeneration (MW) 822 1290 1390 1390 1390Expected Total InstalledGeneration (MW) 4,326.50 4,894.50 4,994.50 4,994.50 4,994.50

Surplus (MW) 1,019 985 668 355 211

COMMITTED GENERATION PROJECTS

DEMAND PROJECTIONS – Long Term

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

Projected System Demand (MW) : 2023 -2030

system Demand System Demand + 10% Reserve MarginSystem Demand + 18% Reserve Margin system Demand + 25% Reserve

Fuel CostBased on the projected thermal generation of 9,937.48 GWh for 2017, anestimated US$952 Million will be required to purchase LCO, Natural Gas, HFOand diesel to run the thermal plants. About US$ 295 million will be required byVRA and about US$ 657 million will be required by the IPPs.

Source: Electricity Supply Plan 2017

TYPE OF FUEL COST (Million USD)VRA – LCO 147VRA – GAS 130VRA – DFO 18

TOTAL VRA FUEL COST 295IPP – GAS 181IPP – LCO 114IPP – HFO 357

IPP – DFO 5TOTAL IPP FUEL COST 657

TOTAL VRA & IPP COST 952

FUEL SUPPLY SECURITY

WAY FORWARD– MARKET REFORMS

Establish Electricity Market as per LI 1937 – GRIDCo is currently developing the Market RulesBenefitsq Provides transparent pricing signals for Market

Participants and investorsq Provides access to larger pool of available energy which

allows for increased competitive pricing, enhances system reliability

q Increases customer satisfaction q Consumers make greater effort to use existing and available

capacity more efficientlyq Rewards efficient and cost effective generation units

WAY FORWARD– RENEWABLE ENERGY GENERATION

¨ RE holds emphatic promise and certainty in achieving a more reliable and readily available electric power supply and delivery at affordable cost

¨ Abundant investment opportunities exist for renewable energy integration in the Ghana energy sector

¨ Efficient use of energy via conservation and demand response

WAY FORWARD

¨ Demand Side Management¤ Energy Efficiency Architecture¤ Fast track migration to LED lamps

¨ Regulation on Embedded / Distributed Generation¤ Scope¤ Capacity ¤ Voltage

¨ Integrated Resource and Resilience Planning (IRRP) Project¤ Initiative supported by USAID

¤ Development of an Integrated Power Sector Master Plan (IPSMP)

¨ Accelerate implementation of LI 1937 – Competitive electricity market implementation

¨ Provide alternate fuel paths to power plants in Tema¨ Develop LNG infrastructure¨ Encourage decentralization and diversification of

generation portfolio mix ¨ Develop identified Small Hydro Sites¨ Ensure sufficient transmission network availability¨ Fuel Diversity

RECOMMENDATIONS (1)

¨ Aggressively integrate grid-connected wind and solar PV energy into the electricity sector

¨ Provide incentives to spur private and public sector investment and ownership in Solar PV

¨ Leverage investments and efforts being made under the West African Power Pool to meet Ghana’s electricity needs

¨ Help develop and enforce WAPP-wide reliability standards and operating procedures to ensure regional power system reliability, transmission network resilience, secured and efficient cross border power transfers

RECOMMENDATIONS (2)

THANK YOU