2015 feb spe student summit presentation allen sinor
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© 2015 BAKER HUGHES INCORPORATED. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. TERMS AND CONDITIONS OF USE: BY ACCEPTING THIS DOCUMENT, THE RECIPIENT AGREES THAT THE DOCUMENT TOGETHER WITH ALL INFORMATION INCLUDED THEREIN IS THECONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY PROPERTY OF BAKER HUGHES INCORPORATED AND INCLUDES VALUABLE TRADE SECRETS AND/OR PROPRIETARY INFORMATION OF BAKER HUGHES (COLLECTIVELY "INFORMATION"). BAKER HUGHES RETAINSALL RIGHTS UNDER COPYRIGHT LAWS AND TRADE SECRET LAWS OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA AND OTHER COUNTRIES. THE RECIPIENT FURTHER AGREES THAT THE DOCUMENT MAY NOT BE DISTRIBUTED, TRANSMITTED, COPIED ORREPRODUCED IN WHOLE OR IN PART BY ANY MEANS, ELECTRONIC, MECHANICAL, OR OTHERWISE, WITHOUT THE EXPRESS PRIOR WRITTEN CONSENT OF BAKER HUGHES, AND MAY NOT BE USED DIRECTLY OR INDIRECTLY IN ANY WAY DETRIMENTALTO BAKER HUGHES’ INTEREST.
Working Smarter, Not HarderThe Role of Innovation in Oil and Gas
Allen SinorVice President, Global AccountsBaker Hughes
4-6 February, 2015
SPE Gulf Coast Section2015 Student Summit
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The Perfect HSE Day
Recordable injuries or incidents
Serious spills/releases
Motor vehicle incidents
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Industry Challenges
Increasing cost– We need to drive efficiencies
More remote areas– High end complex technologies to remote regions
Experience gap– 44% personnel <3years experience
Need to use unconventionalextraction methods
Technological challenges of drilling– Pressure, temperature and extreme weather conditions
Significant operational risks and environmental impact
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The Current Oil “Crisis”
NORWAY PULPIT ROCK
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Global Demand and Complexity
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The BIG Question
Why do we explore, drill and develop oil and gas wells?
To make profitable returns for our investors
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Decision Strategies Oilfield Breakfast Forum 5 April 2012, Helge Hove Haldorson
Up to $16 dollarsfor four bottles(280,000% MU)
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Future Outlook: The Not So Bad
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0
10
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60
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80
90
100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015E
Liqu
ids
Dem
and
/Liq
uids
Sup
ply
+O
PE
CS
pare
Cap
acity
(mm
bbl/d
)
Rea
lCap
ex($
B,2
013)
/Rea
lAvg
.WT
I(20
13$)
Source: Barclays, Bloomberg, IEA, EIA
CAPEX
Oil Price
DemandCapacity
Worldwide Outside NA NA
2014Oil Price - $92/bbl
CAPEX - $680 billionDemand – 91 mbdCapacity – 94 mbd
Demand, Price and CAPEX
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Historical Active Rig Count
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30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014
Liq
uid
sD
eman
d/L
iqu
ids
Su
pp
ly+
OP
EC
Sp
are
Cap
acit
y(m
mb
bl/d
)
Act
ive
Rig
Co
un
t
Global NA Intl Capacity Demand
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Oil Economics by Basin: This is Why Oil Price Matters !!!
Source: TPH. Assumes $3.75/mcf NYMEX
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Sources: Thomson Reuters Datastream, IEA. Nov. 27 data for oil price and foreign exchange. Graphics by Vincent Flasseur/Reuters
Breakeven Oil Prices
$92/bbl
$117/bbl
$52/bbl
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Increasing Demand in a Changing World
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Our Global Population Has Exploded
Source: US Department of Commerce and US Census Bureau
The World Gains One Person Every 13 SECONDS!
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Our Global Population Has Exploded
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and U.S. Census Bureau
2014 – 7.3 Billion
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Beijing, China: 21,000,000 People
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Sao Paulo, Brazil: 12,000,000 People
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Source: Reuters, July 16, 201420
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The U.S. is Now Number 1 in Energy Consumption
July 4, 2014 (Bloomberg)
U.S. became the largestgas producer in 2010
U.S. became the largestoil producer in Q1 2014,exceeding 11M boe/dayDraf
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d.Non-OECD countries will account for 86% of theincrease in global energy use in the next 20 years
Source: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD)21
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37%
18%8%
27%
8% Petroleum and Other Liquids
Coal
Nuclear
Natural Gas
Renewable Energy
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration Annual Energy , AEO2014 Early ReleaseOverview, December 16, 2013.
U.S. Energy Consumption
2040
32%
18%8%
30%
10% Fossil Fuels: 82% in 2013,reduced to 80% by 2040
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Our Customer Base is Evolving
IOCIOC NOCNOC IndependentsIndependents
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Our Learning is InconsistentLearning Curve Case Studies
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Sequence
Da
ys
Applying New Technology Losing Key Personnel Forgetting Curve
Sequence
Days
0
50
100
150
200
250
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
No Learning
Days
Sequence
0
25
50
75
100
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Fast Learning
Sequence
0
25
50
75
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
Slow Learning
Da
ys
1977 19840
25
50
75
100
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Sequence
0
10
20
30
40
0 10 20 30Sequence
Days
Source: SPE 15362- The Drilling Performance Curve
0
100
200
400
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0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Da
ys 300 Draf
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And, Failure is Not Acceptable
2010 Deepwater Horizon Disaster
April 2010
Died: 11 workers
Lost: Deepwater Horizon
Spilled: 200,000,0000 gal
Market Cap Loss: $100B
Industry Impact: ONGOING
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What Lies Ahead?
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The Future?
It is no longer about drilling “further and faster”
It is about Safety, Consistency and Cost of Ownership
Key Pathways
Reservoir
Digital
Materials
Automation
Science
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Reservoir Challenges
Even after all of these enhanced oil recovery steps (primary, secondary and tertiary)have been taken, it is still not uncommon for 60 – 70% of the original oil to be left in thereservoir. So, if you think about that, there are billions of barrels of discovered oil thatwe’re leaving in place. Unconventional reservoirs are worse, averaging 90%.
“In the past 100 years – in all of human history – we have consumed 1 trillion barrels ofoil. There are several times that much here,” said Roger Day, vice president foroperations for American Shale Oil (AMSO).
The oil shale deposits found on federal lands in Colorado, Utah and Wyoming containan estimated 4.285 trillion barrels of oil in place according to the U.S. GeologicalSurvey — enough to sustain America’s fuel needs for over a century.Draf
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Well Construction: With RSS or RNS
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Technology Enablers
VintageArea Contacted
(ft2)*
Reservoir permeability
Gas Oil
Ver
tical
Open Hole 1800s 200 10 100
Perforating 1920s 500 10 100
Fracturing 1940s 3,200 1 10
Big Fracs 1980s 240,000 0.01 0.1
Hor
izon
tal
Open Hole 1980s 8,000 1 10
Bi-Wing Fracs 2000 1,200,000 0.001 0.01
Complex Fracs 2005 10,000,000 0.0001 0.001
Many-Stage Complex 2009 20,000,0000.00001 0.0001
40-stage frac 2011 28,000,000
EVOLUTION OF COMPLETION TECHNOLOGY
Source: EOG Estimates, Baker Hughes Estimates
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Vertical Fractured Well
1880s 200
1920s 500
1940s 3,200
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Horizontal Fractured Well
1880s 200
1920s 500
1940s 3,200
1980s 240,000
1980s 8,000
2000 1,200,000
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Long Horizontal and Multi-Stage Frac
1880s 200
1920s 500
1940s 3,200
1980s 240,000
1980s 8,000
2000 1,200,000
2005 10,000,000
2009 20,000,000
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40 Stage Frac
3
1880s 200
1920s 500
1940s 3,200
1980s 240,000
1980s 8,000
2000 1,200,000
2005 10,000,000
2009 20,000,000
2011 28,000,000 Draft O
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But, the Rest of The Unconventional Story
70% of unconventional wells in the U.S.do not reach their
production targets 1
40% of all frac stages fail to contribute to production 2
73% of operators admit they don't know enough about the subsurface to
develop an effective fracture design 3
Less than 10% of the 15,000 horizontal wells drilled annually in the
U.S. are logged 4
5% recovery factors are common in shale gas plays 5
1 Welling & Company, 2012
2 E&P, 2012
3 Welling, 2012
4 SPE Workshop Prague, 2012
5 O&GJ, 2012
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Unconventional Geoscience- utilizing the “Science”
Geochemistry
Lithology
Mineralogy
TOC
Lithofacies
Total Porosity
SiliceousBrittleness Index
Porosity
Permeability
Fluid typing
TOC
Dynamic & StaticGeomechanical Properties
Pressure Gradient
Suite of core analyses
ROTARY CORESPowerCOR™ /MaxCOR™
MINERALOGYFleX™ / RockView™
Spectralog™
MICROSEISMICFracXplorer™
ACOUSTICSXMAC-F1 / SoundTrak™
NMRMReX™ / MagTrak™
BOREHOLE IMAGINGSTAR-HD™ / StarTrak™ / UltrasonicXplorer™ /
GeoXplorer™ / Earth Imager™
RESISTIVITY/DENSITY/NEUTRONHDIL™ / RTeX™ / OnTrak™ /
LithoTrak™ / ZDEN
Structural & Sedimentology Borehole Stress
FractureCharacterization
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Why Digital Oilfield?
On an average DOF, project delivers >20% increase in NPV
Drilling &Operations
ReservoirManagement
ProductionEngineering
DOF
Intervention
Remote Control
Offshore
Drilling
Substitution
Productivity
Monitoring/Control
Completion
Recovery
Management
Formation
Characterisation
RT Data Acquisition
Production Optimization
Asset Management
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DOF: Data Integration from Capture to Action
DataManagement
FieldOperations
ProductionEngineering
ReservoirManagement
Data Capture, Validate Access Applications InformationDraft O
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Moving from a Legacy of Data and Application Silos
3rd Parties3rd Parties Equipment VendorsEquipment Vendors
Shore SupportShore Support
OperatorOperator Rig OwnerRig Owner Service Company 1Service Company 1
Service Company 2Service Company 2
Sensors & SystemsSensors & Systems
Video
Fire &Safety
EGIS
MaintenanceSystems
Audio
WeatherAlerts
Radar
SCADA
Alarms
Access &Identity Mgmt.
PanicButton
LPR
Procedures
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3rd Parties3rd Parties Equipment VendorsEquipment Vendors
Shore SupportShore Support
OperatorOperator Rig OwnerRig Owner Service Company 1Service Company 1
Service Company 2Service Company 2
Sensors & SystemsSensors & Systems
Video
Fire &Safety
EGIS
MaintenanceSystems
Audio
WeatherAlerts
Radar
SCADA
Alarms
Access &Identity Mgmt.
PanicButton
LPR
Procedures
Digital Collaboration PlatformsDigital Collaboration Platforms
…to Real-time Integrated Operations and Process Safety
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Remote Operations: remove geographic location and distance as abarrier to safe, efficient operations
24x7x365, safe, globally consistent, high-availability, secure, standardized
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What If?
We could capture the data, imagesand conversations to create acomprehensive, integrated view of theoperation in real time and selectively sharewith all those who need to know?
We could orchestrate the actors whoneed to collaborate to interpret whatit all means and make decisions?
We could store the “movie” of theoperation to be replayed later?
We could use Digital to TiVo our industry
SAFETY
SECURITY
OPERATIONS
OWN THE DECISIVE MOMENT
2012 ACTE- Orchestrating Decisions in Real-Time
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Digital: Pathway to Global Knowledge
Knowledge
SkillsExperience
Behavior
What makes a person competent?
GOOGLE GLASS
Baker Hughes launched 160 new products in 2014.The pace of innovation is exponential.
A future of wearable “TECH”
How do we adopt digital enablement?
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MaterialsHow do we leverage material science from other industries?
DefenseDefenseMaterialSciencesMaterialSciences
AerospaceAerospace
Composites
IN-Tallic™
Compressed Coils
Laser
AdditiveManufacturing
MedicalMedical
SRP Polymer
DegradableThermosets
Nano Medicine
Fiber Optics
Distributed AcousticSensors
E.M. Telemetry
ExPhite™
Magnetostrict D.T.S.
Shape MemoryPolymer
Brazed BeadMatrices
AutomotiveAutomotive
Tuned VibratingAbsorbers
Nano-Oil
Nano-TechNano-Tech
HydrophobicCoatings
ConFINE™
Nano MicrogelSwelling Polymer
Silapore™
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Materials
The next BIG game changers
High temperature electronics
Shape memory polymers
Wear resistant materials
Impact resistant materials
Nano engineered materials
– Sensors
– Chemicals
– Drilling materials
– Reservoir surveillance
The prefix nano, derived from the Latin word nanus for dwarf,means something very small. When we’re using it in metricterms, a nanometer is one-billionth of a meter. Think about that!Take a strand of hair and put at it between your fingers. Thewidth of that hair is 100,000 nanometers. A nanometer is abouthow much your fingernail grows every second. So a nanometeris really small.
Nanotechnology Helps 3-D TV Make a Comeback Without Glasses- Dexter Johnson post, Consumer Electronics Show
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Polycrystalline DiamondHigh purity micronised diamond on a WC substrate sintered at:
■ High Pressure: 55 000 atmospheres (~800 kPsi)– Picture a tower of 5000 family-sized sedans stacked
on a jar of peanut butter– Approaching 80,000 atmospheres today
■ High temperature: 1500°C (>2700 °F) – beyond the meltingpoint of steel
Higher pressures today are leading tohigher diamond density, and lesscobalt metal. This results in higherstrength, wear resistance and thermalstability.
UHP cutters gave longer run to TD,saving a bit and trip
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IN-Tallic™ Disintegrating Frac Balls
■ Divert treatment and prevent wellbore blockage forunimpeded production
■ Frac balls disintegrate before or shortly after the well isput on production
– Prevents frac balls being trapped on the ball seat by differentialpressure
– Assures that the frac balls are not blocking production
– Allows production from all stages of the well
– Prevents frac balls from piling up in low points of the well
– Avoids debris barrier in production string
■ Disintegrates in brine, a common frac and formation fluid
– Requires no special fluid or intervention to remove the balls
■ Lighter than aluminum but as strong as steel
– Allows the balls to be pumped easily in the horizontal section
– Exceeds ratings of some existing ball-activated fracturingtechnology
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GeoFORM™ Conformable Sand Management System
Smart shape memorypolymer porous foammaterial is run in on basepipe and self-deploys intoconformance downhole.
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Automation
Many industries have acknowledged human limitations in managing repetitiveor complex tasks and they have turned to automation.
Automotive
Airline
Beverage and Food
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Automation: The BIG Reason
We can train our brain
“Aoccdrnig to a rscheearch at Cmabrigde
Uinervtisy, it deosn't mttaer in waht oredr the
ltteers in a wrod are, the olny iprmoetnt tihng
is taht the frist and lsat ltteer be at the rghit
pclae. The rset can be a total mses and you
can sitll raed it wouthit porbelm. Thsi is
bcuseae the huamn mnid deos not raed ervey
lteter by istlef, but the wrod as a wlohe”
- But miss details due to routine
People make mistakes
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Automation: What If?
Brake assist
Brake force distribution
Smart stop technology
Pre-collision system
Dynamic radar
Driver attention monitor withclosed eye detection
Lane keep assist
Vehicle stability control
Hybrid controllers
5
The future was already taking shape in the automotive industry?
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Automation Opportunities in the Oil Field
Automation-less (not elimination) human intervention Manufacturing
De-manning Rigs
Semi Autonomous Drilling
Semi Autonomous Well Control
Intelligent Completions
Data Processing and Interpretation
Stay on plan consistently on every well
Utilize surface and downhole data
24/7 real-time surveillance, interpretation, and expert advice
Detect, diagnose and avoid challenges before they occur
Investigate, validate and collaborate for
enhanced decision-making
What if? We could give “advice” in real time, now
16th Annual Gulf of Mexico Deepwater Technology SymposiumUtilizing the Power of Case-Based Reasoning Technology for Enhanced Real-Time Risk Recognition and Hazard Mitigation
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© 2015 BAKER HUGHES INCORPORATED. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. TERMS AND CONDITIONS OF USE: BY ACCEPTING THIS DOCUMENT, THE RECIPIENT AGREES THAT THE DOCUMENT TOGETHER WITH ALL INFORMATION INCLUDED THEREIN IS THECONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY PROPERTY OF BAKER HUGHES INCORPORATED AND INCLUDES VALUABLE TRADE SECRETS AND/OR PROPRIETARY INFORMATION OF BAKER HUGHES (COLLECTIVELY "INFORMATION"). BAKER HUGHES RETAINSALL RIGHTS UNDER COPYRIGHT LAWS AND TRADE SECRET LAWS OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA AND OTHER COUNTRIES. THE RECIPIENT FURTHER AGREES THAT THE DOCUMENT MAY NOT BE DISTRIBUTED, TRANSMITTED, COPIED ORREPRODUCED IN WHOLE OR IN PART BY ANY MEANS, ELECTRONIC, MECHANICAL, OR OTHERWISE, WITHOUT THE EXPRESS PRIOR WRITTEN CONSENT OF BAKER HUGHES, AND MAY NOT BE USED DIRECTLY OR INDIRECTLY IN ANY WAY DETRIMENTALTO BAKER HUGHES’ INTEREST.
Working Smarter, Not HarderThe Role of Innovation in Oil and Gas
Allen SinorVice President, Global AccountsBaker Hughes
4-6 February, 2015
SPE Gulf Coast Section2015 Student Summit
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