AEI’S CRITICAL THREATS PROJECT

UPDATE AND ASSESSMENT December 15, 2015

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TOP THREE TAKEAWAYS

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1. Kenyan intelligence reports indicate that an al Shabaab regional commander defected to ISIS along with a significant fighting force, signaling a significant uptick in al Qaeda-ISIS competition in East Africa.

2. The Saudi-led coalition initiated a seven-day ceasefire in support of UN-led peace talks that aim to permanently end hostilities in Yemen, but the status of the truce remains uncertain.

3. Iranian officials condemned the clashes between the Nigerian army and Shia Muslims in northern Nigeria; Tehran will likely use these clashes as an opportunity to champion its role as the defender of the global Shia population.

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ASSESSMENT:

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al Qaeda NetworkThe leader of al Qaeda’s Syrian affiliate, Jabhat al Nusra, continues to defend the group’s relationship with al Qaeda. Leader Abu Muhammad al Julani stated that the group will continue its fight to empower shari’a-based governance in Syria and will not make a deal with any adversaries, a reference to the Syria Vienna talks. Julani noted Jabhat al Nusra’s primary fight is with the Assad regime and Hezbollah, and that al Qaeda has other factions tasked with fighting the U.S. and Europe.

Al Qaeda’s Somalia-based affiliate, al Shabaab, faces growing tensions over possible internal support for the Islamic State in Iraq and al Sham (ISIS). An al Shabaab religious cleric based in northern Somalia broke rank with the group this fall, leading a score of fighters. New Kenyan intelligence indicates al Shabaab’s commander for operations in Kenya may have defected as well, though there is little secondary sourcing to confirm. Al Shabaab’s leadership has cracked down on members who have displayed support for ISIS, though some of the lines of support appear to run along historical fracture lines over power within al Shabaab. Al Shabaab’s ability to suppress support for ISIS inside of the territory in which it operates in Somalia may make it difficult for ISIS to gain a true foothold in East Africa.

Outlook: Al Qaeda will likely continue to pursue a long-term strategy in which it builds strength among its affiliates and benefits from the West’s focus on defeating the ISIS threat.

AL QAEDA

ASSESSMENT:

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PoliticalUN-led peace talks began between internationally recognized Yemeni President Abdu Rabbu Mansour Hadi’s delegation and the al Houthi-Saleh delegation in Geneva, Switzerland. The talks are expected to last one week and aim to deescalate the military conflict in Yemen, as well as address the ongoing humanitarian crisis.

Outlook: Delegates may reach a limited military settlement, but future negotiations will be necessary to address political and governance issues.

SecurityThe Saudi-led coalition initiated a seven-day ceasefire in conjunction with the peace talks, despite an escalation in hostilities this week. Al Houthi-Saleh forces carried out a Tochka (SS-21) rocket attack on a coalition base in Taiz governorate, killing dozens of troops and two high-ranking Saudi and Emirati officers. Coalition-backed popular resistance forces conducted a weeklong offensive in al Jawf governorate, likely in an effort to secure neighboring Ma’rib and pressure al Houthi-Saleh positions in northern Yemen. The coalition launched airstrikes throughout northern Yemen in response to al Houthi-Saleh cross-border attacks on Saudi territory.

Outlook: The ceasefire may hold temporarily, but it is unlikely to last due to the ongoing struggle for territorial control on the ground and the large number of local armed groups who are capable of reigniting hostilities.

Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and ISIS in YemenAQAP released two videos featuring a new leader, Ibrahim al Qosi, a former Guantanamo detainee released by the U.S. in 2012. One of the videos documented AQAP’s history of jihad against America and its allies in the Middle East. This is al Qosi’s first media appearance since his release.

Outlook: AQAP’s use of al Qosi in media shows the group reconstituting its leadership and reaffirming its role as the leader of jihad against the West. AQAP will remain active in southern and eastern Yemen as it builds governance capabilities.

YEMENGULF OF ADEN

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SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY: YEMENGULF OF

ADEN

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1) 08-10 DEC: Coalition-backed popular resistance forces launched an offensive in al Jawf governorate.2) 09 DEC: Fighting in Taiz governorate killed two Australian and British mercenaries.3) 14 DEC: Al Houthi-Saleh rocket attack killed dozens of coalition soldiers near Bab al Mandeb.4) 14 DEC: Al Houthi forces claimed to launch rockets into Saudi Arabia.

ASSESSMENT:

PoliticalGalmudug State’s president again asked leaders from Ahlu Sunna Wa al Jama’a (ASWJ), a moderate Islamism group that contests the Galmudug Administration's legitimacy, to engage in peace talks, with the support of Somalia’s prime minister. A successful peace agreement would aid regional stability by removing one threat to the administration and freeing up security resources to combat al Shabaab.

Outlook: ASWJ may attend federal government-led peace talks with the Galmudug Administration.

SecurityPro-Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham (ISIS) militants captured the strategically located Tolu-Barwaqo village on the Somali-Kenyan border, although they withdrew from it when Kenyan government forces arrived. An increasing frequency of attacks within Kenyan territory near the Kenyan-Somali border suggest militants active in southern Somalia are trying to gain a foothold in Kenya. Kenya has since deployed additional troops to the border to prevent militants from conducting cross-border attacks.

Outlook: Pro-ISIS militants in southern Somalia will likely begin to conduct attacks against Kenya.

Al ShabaabKenyan intelligence stated that al Shabaab’s commander for the Lower Jubba region, Mohamed Mohamud Ali “Dulyadeyn,” reportedly defected to ISIS, along with approximately 1,200 militants under his command. Dulyadeyn is reportedly seeking closer ties to key pro-ISIS figures both in Somalia and Kenya. Additionally, Dulyadeyn, may attempt to shift the pro-ISIS in East Africa movement from Somalia to Kenya. Pro-ISIS figures criticized al Shabaab’s attacks against would-be ISIS defectors, condemning the organization for destroying the unity of the global jihadist movement. Al Shabaab has yet to release any statements on Dulyadeyn’s recent defection.

Outlook: Al Shabaab will likely be forced to acknowledge the scale of the al Shabaab-ISIS split occurring in Somalia.

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HORN OF AFRICAGULF OF ADEN

SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:

HORN OF AFRICA

GULF OF ADEN

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1) 09 DEC: Pro-ISIS militants captured Tulo-Barwaqo Village, Lower Jubba Region. 2) 12 DEC: IJA and SNA forces retook Tulo-Barwaqo Village, Lower Jubba Region.3) 10-12 DEC: Al Shabaab assassinated security personnel in Mogadishu, Banadir region.4) 11-13 DEC: Rival clan militias clashed in Beledweyne, Hiraan region. 5) 12 DEC: Grenade detonated in mosque in Addis Ababa, Addis Ababa chartered district, Ethiopia.

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ASSESSMENT:

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PoliticalAmerican, European, and UN delegates endorsed a proposed national unity government, which Libyan delegates will sign on December 16. The participants in the international conference in Rome stated that any political or military group that does not join the new government will be sidelined. Factions from both the Libyan House of Representatives (HoR) and the General National Congress (GNC) support the proposed government.

Outlook: The emergence of an internationally backed Libyan government of national accord will further fracture the HoR and the GNC. International backers will struggle to implement the unity government without the support of local power brokers.

SecurityThe Libyan National Army (LNA), affiliated with the HoR, continued air operations in Ajdabiya in response to ISIS Wilayat Barqa’s assassination campaign in the city. The LNA also intensified its air and ground operations targeting ISIS and Ansar al Sharia-held positions in western and southern Benghazi, Libya.

Outlook: The LNA will continue to focus on Ajdabiya in an attempt to prevent an ISIS takeover.

Ansar al Sharia and ISIS in LibyaISIS Wilayat Tarablus appeared to validate longstanding rumors that the group maintains a base near Sabrata, Libya. Suspected ISIS militants raided Sabrata on December 10 to retrieve suspected members of the group arrested by Libya Dawn forces for arms trafficking.

The al Qaeda-linked Mujahideen Shura Council of Derna (MSCD) continued to clash with ISIS Wilayat Barqa forces outside of Derna, Libya.

Outlook: ISIS Wilayat Tarablus may conduct additional raids in Sabrata, with ancient Roman ruins in the city as a potential target.

LIBYAWEST AFRICA

SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY: LIBYAWEST

AFRICA

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1) 08 DEC: ISIS reinforcement convoys arrived in Sirte, Libya.2) 10 DEC: Suspected ISIS Wilayat Tarablus forces seized building and established temporary checkpoints in Sabrata, Libya. 3) 12 DEC: MSCD and ISIS Wilayat Barqa forces resumed clashes in Sahel Sharqi, Derna, Libya. 4) 14 DEC: Unidentified Libya Dawn militias clashed and released 400 prisoners from local prison in Tajura, Tripoli, Libya.

ASSESSMENT:

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AQIM AQIM’s Sahara Emirate published a slide show depicting its militants as a powerful group operating unrestricted in northern Mali. This slide show is a component of AQIM’s ongoing recruitment campaign. Also, the Algerian Army foiled an attempted bombing in Annaba. Offensive attacks in urban areas have occurred rarely in Algeria in recent years, and this one remains unclaimed. Had it succeeded, this attack would have dealt a significant blow to a country known for its successful counter-terrorism measures.

Outlook: AQIM will continue to release statements and conduct operations in an effort to drive recruitment and unite radical Islamist militants in northern Mali.

Uqba Ibn Nafa’a (Tunisia)The AQIM-linked Uqba Ibn Nafa’a Brigade clashed with a Tunisian army tracking unit on Mount Chaambi in Kasserine near the border of Algeria. It has not attacked the Tunisian army there since February 2015, suggesting the army renewed its efforts in this region known for militant strongholds. Police also arrested a 25 member terrorist cell, the Islamic Battalion of Sbiba, east of Mount Chaambi. It planned to attack local markets, marking a change in attack targets from tourists and security forces to civilians.

Outlook: Uqba Ibn Nafa’a will defend its stronghold against the Tunisian military should the army attempt to pursue the group into the mountainous region.

Associated Movements in the Sahel (Ansar al Din, al Murabitoun) AQIM-linked Ansar al Din conducted several attacks in Mali after a week of inactivity. It fired rockets at MINUSMA, the UN peacekeeping mission in Mali, in Gao, and attacked military barracks in Niono. Ansar al Din’s southern affiliate, the Macina Liberation Front (MLF) attacked a military check point near Timbuktu. Both groups continue low level attacks to preserve their influence in their operation zones.  Outlook: Ansar al Din and its affiliates will continue to target UN, French, and Malian security forces in order to destabilize the region and gain control of more territory.

MAGHREB AND SAHEL

WEST AFRICA

SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:

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MAGHREBWEST AFRICA

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1) 09 DEC: ANP foiled an attempted bombing in Annaba, Algeria. 2) 09 DEC: Uqba Ibn Nafa’a clashed with an army patrol on Mount Chaambi, Kasserine, Tunisia. 3) 10 DEC: Security forces arrested 25 members of the Islamic Battalion of Sbiba in Sbiba, Kasserine, Tunisia. 4) 08, 13 DEC: ANP discovered three arms caches in Tinzaouten, Bordj Badji Mokhtar and Tamanrasset, Algeria.

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SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:

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SAHELWEST AFRICA

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1) 09 DEC: The MLF shot at an army checkpoint, wounding one, in Goudam, Timbuktu, Mali.2) 13 DEC: Ansar al Din attacked military barracks, killing one and injuring two, in Niono, Segou, Mali.3) 14 DEC: Ansar al Din fired rockets at the city of Gao, Mali. No injuries were reported.

ASSESSMENT:

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Domestic PoliticsSenior Iranian leaders escalated their rhetorical jabs concerning the upcoming parliamentary and Assembly of Experts elections in February 2016. During a speech on December 11, President Hassan Rouhani reiterated his call for competitive elections, echoing his previous challenge to the Guardian Council’s role in disqualifying candidates for elections. Members of Rouhani’s conservative opposition, meanwhile, intensified their anti-reformist rhetoric. Interim Tehran Friday Prayer Leader Kazem Sedighi highlighted the importance of the Guardian Council’s vetting process in ensuring the “right of the people to have good officials.” The Guardian Council is constitutionally mandated to review candidates, but has disproportionally used this power in recent elections to disqualify reformist and more moderate candidates. Iran’s conservative establishment fears that the upcoming elections will bring about a larger moderate bloc in the Parliament and the Assembly of Experts, which is responsible for selecting the next Supreme Leader.

Outlook: Rhetorical disagreements over the constitutional role of the Guardian Council will likely continue in the lead up to the February elections.

Regional Developments and DiplomacyIranian officials condemned the clashes between the Nigerian army and Shia Muslims in the northern city of Zaria. The Iranian Foreign Ministry summoned the Nigerian chargé d'affaires on December 14 after soldiers besieged the house of Sheikh Ibrahim Zakzaky, the leader of the Islamic Movement in Nigeria (IMN), a pro-Iranian opposition group. The Parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy (NSFP) Commission released a statement claiming that “Iran considers it its duty to defend the people of Nigeria and that country’s Muslim scholars, particularly Sheikh Ibraheem Zakzaky.” Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, meanwhile, contacted his Nigerian counterpart to express his concern over the violence targeting Nigeria’s Shia community.  

Outlook: Tehran will likely use these clashes as an opportunity to champion its role as the defender of the global Shia population.

IRAN

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SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:IRAN

DEC 8: Several parliamentarians in the National Security and Foreign Policy (NSFP) Parliamentary Commission criticized Turkish policy in the Middle East, including the “illegal arrival” of Turkish forces in Iraq.

DEC 9: President Hassan Rouhani criticized GOP presidential candidate Donald Trump’s proposal to ban Muslims from entering the U.S.

DEC 9: IRGC Commander Major General Mohammad Ali Jafari appointed IRGC Brigadier General Gholam Hossein Gheibparvar as Commander of the Imam Hossein Battalions. Gheibparvar replaced IRGC Brigadier General Hossein Hamedani, who was killed on October 8 in Syria.

DEC 9: Iranian media reported the deaths of four Iranians from Mazandaran province in Syria, while the bodies of three Iranians killed in Syria were returned to Khuzestan province.

DEC 9: Vahid Ahmadi, the Head of the NSFP Commission’s Foreign Relations Committee, denied that Iranian missile tests violated UN Security Council Resolution 2231.

DEC 10: Deputy Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian criticized the meeting of Syrian opposition groups in Riyadh by claiming that ISIS-linked terrorist groups are participating in them.

DEC 11: President Hassan Rouhani reiterated his call for competitive parliamentary and Assembly of Experts elections.DEC 11: Principlist parliamentarian and NSFP Commission member Mohammad Esmail Kowsari criticized the Reformist bloc

for failing to produce a serious agenda.DEC 11: Interim Tehran Friday Prayer Leader Hojjat ol Eslam Kazem Sedighi warned against “seditionists” in the Assembly of

Experts elections and stressed the importance of the Guardian Council’s vetting process for candidates.DEC 13: Expediency Discernment Council Chairman Ayatollah Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani stated that the Assembly of

Experts is currently examining candidates to become the next Supreme Leader.DEC 13: Iranian media reported the deaths of three Iranians from Khuzestan province in Syria. DEC 13: Deputy Foreign Minister Hassan Ghashghavi stated that Tehran is hoping for “more engagement” with Riyadh than in

the past.DEC 14: Foreign Ministry Spokesman Hossein Jaberi Ansari stated that Iran is ready to change the “current climate” between

Saudi Arabia and Iran if Saudi Arabia shows “a definite will” for improving ties.DEC 14: The Foreign Ministry summoned the Nigerian chargé d'affaires after soldiers besieged the house of Sheikh Ibrahim

Zakzaky, the leader of a pro-Iranian opposition group called the Islamic Movement in Nigeria (IMN).

08 – 14 DEC

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ACRONYMSAtomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI)International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM)al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP)al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS)Coordination for the Movement of the Azawad (CMA)Imghad Tuareg and Allies Self-Defense Group (GATIA)Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC)Islamic State in Iraq and al Sham (ISIS)Libyan National Army (LNA)Arab Movement of Azawad (MAA) United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA)Mujahideen Shura Council in Derna (MSCD)National Movement for the Liberation of the Azawad (MNLA)The Movement for Unity and Jihad in West Africa (MUJAO)Pakistani Military (PakMil)Possible military dimensions (PMD)Somalia National Army (SNA)Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP)

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AEI’S CRITICAL THREATS PROJECTFrederick W. Kagandirectorfkagan@aei.org (202) 888-6569

Katherine Zimmermansenior al Qaeda analystkatherine.zimmerman@aei.org (202) 888-6576

Paul BucalaIran analystpaul.bucala@aei.org(202) 888-6573

Marie DonovanIran analystmarie.donovan@aei.org(202) 888-6572

Heather Malacariaprogram managerheather.malacaria@aei.org(202) 888-6575

Emily Estelleal Qaeda analystemily.estelle@aei.org(202) 888-6570

Mehrdad MoarefianIran analystmehrdad.moarefian@aei.org(202) 888-6574

Caitlin PendletonIran analystcaitlin.pendleton@aei.org(202) 888-6577

For more information about AEI’s Critical Threats Project, visit www.criticalthreats.org.