AEI’S CRITICAL THREATS PROJECT

UPDATE AND ASSESSMENT

August 26, 2015

TOP THREE TAKEAWAYS

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1. The Iranian regime asserted that it will continue to grow its missile program, doing whatever it

deems necessary and without permission or resolution, according to President Hassan Rouhani.

2. AQAP is benefitting from the Saudi-led coalition’s offensive against the al Houthis and their allies. It

is strengthening its presence in Aden and Abyan governorates in southern Yemen.

3. The Arab League held an emergency meeting to discuss how to counter ISIS gains in Libya. ISIS

continues to consolidate control over the area surrounding Sirte on the central Libyan coastline.

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ASSESSMENT:

al Qaeda NetworkThe Islamic Jihad Union (IJU), a Central Asian militant group with closes ties to al Qaeda, pledged allegiance (bay’a) to the new

Taliban leader Mullah Akhtar Mansour. The IJU is a splinter group of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), which pledged

allegiance to Abu Bakr al Baghdadi, leader of the Islamic State in Iraq and al Sham (ISIS). The confirmation of Mullah Omar’s

death has led a few groups to switch their allegiance to ISIS, but there are also those who have re-pledged to Mullah Akhtar

Mansour, indicating that the al Qaeda network remains active, though weaker.

Outlook: Al Qaeda will need to prove that it is a viable leader of the global jihadist movement in order to retain the support of its

followers, which introduces a requirement of relevance. The 9/11 anniversary may be a time for significant leadership

statements or attacks.

Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan, al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent, and al Qaeda associatesThe Pakistani military strengthened its offensive against militancy in North Waziristan by launching a ground operation in the

troubled Shawal Valley. The ground operation follows multiple days of airstrikes in the region. These attacks are a part of

Operation Zarb-e-Azb, Pakistani military’s offensive against militancy in the country. The operation is now in its final phase.

The scheduled bilateral talks between the National Security Advisors of India and Pakistan broke down hours before the start

as tensions escalated between both sides. The talks broke down after India insisted that the talks be purely about terrorism,

while Pakistan argued that conversations based solely on terrorism would be pointless.

Outlook: Pakistani military will continue to strengthen its offensive against militancy in the country as Operation Zarb-e-Azb is

in its final phase.

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AL QAEDA

ASSESSMENT:

PoliticalNegotiations to end Yemen’s conflict appear to be continuing, although with limited success. Abdu Rabbu Mansour Hadi’s

government submitted a plan to the UN to implement UN Security Council Resolution 2216, which calls for the al Houthis’

withdrawal from seized territory and disarmament.

Outlook: It is unlikely the al Houthis will currently agree to any political solution that calls for the group’s withdrawal and

disarmament, but the al Houthis may be willing to make some concessions.

SecurityThe success of local tribal forces in liberating areas of central and southern Yemen from the al Houthis appears to be

galvanizing more local support for anti-al Houthi forces. Tribal forces in Dhamar, central Yemen, have mobilized to liberate the

governorate. Popular resistance forces also continued to liberate areas of Taiz, Ibb, and al Bayda in central Yemen. The al

Houthis have responded to the loss of territory in Taiz by shelling civilian neighborhoods.

Outlook: The al Houthis will continue to lose territory in central Yemen as Popular Resistance forces maintain a steady

momentum in seizing territory and continue to receive support from Saudi-led coalition forces.

Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and ISIS in YemenAQAP continues to exploit Operation Golden Arrow’s success to seize territory in southern Yemen. AQAP militants reportedly

temporarily seized multiple districts in Aden city, southern Yemen, before withdrawing the next day for unknown reasons. AQAP

is also presenting itself as a force against the al Houthis. Jalal al Marqishi, the leader of AQAP’s insurgent arm Ansar al Sharia,

detailed AQAP’s role in cooperating with local forces to fight the al Houthis in southern and eastern Yemen. Separately, AQAP

continues to refuse to withdraw from al Mukalla, eastern Yemen, despite calls from both Hadi’s government and local tribal

forces for the group to do so.

Outlook: AQAP will continue its successful campaign alongside anti-al Houthi forces throughout southern and eastern Yemen.

The Saudi-led coalition’s focus on the fight against the al Houthis will continue to distract from the fight against AQAP, allowing

for the militant group to expand its operational reach.

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GULF OF ADEN YEMEN

SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY: YEMENGULF OF ADEN

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1) 22 AUG: AQAP seized a number of districts in eastern and northern Aden before withdrawing on August 23. 2) 23-24 AUG: Al Houthis shelled Saudi military sites near Jizan Province. 3) 22 AUG: U.S. airstrike killed four AQAP militants traveling in a vehicle.4) 21 AUG: Thirteen prisoners escaped from the central prison in al Mahrah.5) 18-24 AUG: Ongoing battles for the liberation of Taiz city.

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ASSESSMENT:

PoliticalThe Somali Parliament is attempting to impeach Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mahmoud on charges of violating the

constitution. UN Special Envoy to Somalia Nicholas Kay criticized parliament’s move, stating that the Somali federal

government must work to have elections in 2016. Separately, AMISOM commanders acknowledged that their troops were

responsible for shooting civilians in July in Lower Shabelle region. Tensions have remained high between AMISOM forces and

Somali civilians after the incident.

Outlook: The Somali federalization process may collapse completely before it reaches its 2016 deadline, potentially causing

international forces to assist in reinstituting an interim federal government or causing an outbreak of violence in the nation.

SecurityTensions continued in central Somalia between the Somali government-backed forces and Ahlu Sunna wa al Jama’a (ASWJ)

militants. Somali forces made a failed attempt to arrest ASWJ’s self-proclaimed Vice President Abdullahi Hersi Diirshe in

Galgudud region. ASWJ, a moderate Sufi rebel group opposed to Somalia’s federalization process, seized Dhusamareb, the

capital of Galmudug region in June.

Outlook: The attempted arrest of an ASWJ leader may inflame tensions between security forces and ASWJ militants in central

Somalia, leading to a renewed outbreak of clashes in the region.

Al ShabaabAl Shabaab militants continue to carry out deadly asymmetrical attacks on security forces and civilians despite losing territory in

southern Somalia. Al Shabaab detonated a vehicle-borne improvised explosive device (VBIED) at a military camp in Kismayo,

southern Somalia. The same day, suspected al Shabaab militants detonated a VBIED targeting civilians in the capital,

Mogadishu.

Outlook: Al Shabaab will likely continue to use asymmetrical attack tactics targeting both civilians and security forces as the

group continues to lose territory in southern Somalia.

HORN OF AFRICAGULF OF ADEN

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SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:

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HORN OF AFRICAGULF OF ADEN

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1) 22 AUG: Al Shabaab detonated a VBIED targeting a military camp in Kismayo.2) 22 AUG:Suspected al Shabaab militants detonated a VBIED near a restaurant in Mogadishu.3) 24 AUG: SNA forces retook villages from al Shabaab in Lower Shabelle.4) 18 AUG: Unclaimed IED detonated, targeting AMISOM vehicle in Afgoi, Lower Shabelle.

ASSESSMENT:

PoliticalThe UN continues to delay the final phase of the reconciliation talks, which are expected to restart on August 27 in Sakhirat,

Morocco. These bureaucratic delays have not shifted the deadline of the talks that was previously declared to be August 31.

Outlook: The U.S., UN, and EU have not amended demands for a unity government to precede any increase in military aid. In

the absence of a negotiated settlement, the Arab League may decide to intervene on its own. These considerations may

provide enough pressure on the parties to reach a successful agreement on the future of Libya.

SecurityThe numerous warning and statements on an imminent attack against ISIS in Sirte fell short and further demonstrated the

weakness of Libya’s fractious military groups and militias. The Arab League, which held an emergency session to discuss

Libya, agreed to allow member states to provide aid through any means necessary.

Outlook: If the LNA and Libya Dawn continue to embrace paralysis over concrete action against ISIS in Sirte, the Arab League

may choose to pursue a Yemen-style military solution in Libya. This threat is growing in credibility and will be discussed during

the next Arab League meeting on August 27.

Ansar al Sharia Libya and ISIS in LibyaThe revolt against ISIS in Sirte raised many questions about ISIS’s ability to maintain its base in Sirte, Libya, against the many

distinct external threats. The reprieve has allowed ISIS to regroup and reinforce its hold on the city and rural countryside.

Recent reports of a Boko Haram presence in the city highlight ISIS’s growing logistical capabilities and their diminishing need to

recruit directly from the Libyan civilian population.

Outlook: ISIS in Libya, and Sirte in particular, are increasingly in a race against time. The August 27 meeting of the Arab

League may see the announcement of a coalition force to eradicate ISIS’s bases in Libya. This growing threat will force ISIS to

accelerate its recruitment and its defensive positions outside of Sirte, Libya.

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LIBYAWEST AFRICA

ASSESSMENT:

AQIMAlgerian security forces continue to battle terrorists, particularly in northern regions of the country. Militants ambushed a group

of soldiers in Skikda, northern Algeria. The Algerian government reportedly deployed more security forces to the region

following the attack.

Outlook: Instability in Libya will continue to affect Algeria’s security as al Qaeda and ISIS terrorists continue to move across the

border into Algeria.

Ansar al Sharia (Tunisia)Terrorists continue to carry out small-scale attacks on security forces throughout northern and central Tunisia. Militants riding on

a motorcycle shot and killed a Tunisian police officer in the beach resort of Sousse, northern Tunisia on August 19. Separately,

Uqba Ibn Nafaa Brigade militants opened fire on Tunisian customs workers near the Algerian border in eastern Tunisia, killing

one customs agent. Tunisia continues to crack down on smuggling along its borders with Algeria and Libya.

Outlook: Militants groups in Tunisia’s central and eastern regions will continue to target security forces in northern and central

Tunisia as Tunisian military forces continue efforts to crack down on terrorism throughout the country.

Associated Movements in the Sahel (Ansar al Din, al Murabitoun) Conflict between Mali’s warring rebel groups continues to threaten the country’s security. The separatist group the Coordination

of Azawad Movements (CMA) withdrew from the committee that monitors a June peace agreement between separatist and pro-

government fighters. The CMA withdrew after a pro-government militia violated the peace agreement last week by taking the

town of Anefis in Kidal from the CMA. Separately, a mine explosion in Gao struck a UN vehicle, injuring two soldiers.

Outlook: The breaking of Mali’s peace accord will likely lead to increased violence throughout Mali both by separatist and pro-

government groups and by jihadist groups.

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MAGHREB AND SAHELWEST AFRICA

SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY: LIBYAWEST AFRICA

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1) 18 AUG: BRSC forces continued an aggressive campaign to consolidate control of Sabri, Benghazi.2) 19 AUG: 1,100 families fled Sirte for numerous cities throughout Libya.3) 24 AUG: ISIS Derna began campaign to recapture Sahel Sharqi, Derna. 4) 24 AUG: LNA warplanes bombed 5 suspected enemy supply boats IVO Marissa, Benghazi.

SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY: MAGHREBWEST AFRICA

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41) 22-24 AUG: Tunisian security forces arrest militants attempting to enter Libya. 2) 24 AUG: Uqba Ibn Nafaa attacked Tunisian checkpoint at Bouchebka border crossing.3) 21, 23, 24 AUG: Suspected AQIM militants clashed with Algerian security forces near Skikda.4) 22 AUG: Tunisian security forces arrest ISIS recruiting cell IVO Bizerte and Ariana, Tunisia.

SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:

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SAHELWEST AFRICA

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1) 17-18 AUG: MINUSMA troops deployed in Kidal region, Mali.2) 22 AUG: IED attack targeted MINUSMA logistics convoy on Asongo-Menakaroad, Gao region.3) 20 AUG: CMA protested establishment of Kidal security zone in Bamako, Mali, and threatened to remove it by force.4) 23 AUG: Gunmen targeted Burkinabe checkpoint in Oursi, Oudalane province.

ASSESSMENT:

Military and Security

Iran marked “Defense Industry Day” on August 22. Senior Iranian officials attended a ceremony to unveil the Defense Ministry’s

Fateh 313 ballistic missile. President Hassan Rouhani reassured the domestic audience that the nuclear deal will not limit Iran’s

defense capacity, claiming: “We will sell and buy weapons whenever and wherever we deem it necessary… we will not wait for

permission…or any resolution.” Defense Minister IRGC Brigadier General Hossein Dehghan reiterated the Supreme Leader’s

position that the regime’s missiles are nonnegotiable and claimed that Russia will deliver four modernized S-300 surface-to-air

missile “battalions” to Iran “soon.” The Defense Ministry also released a statement saying Iran will not suspend its missile

activities. Meanwhile, IRGC Air Force Commander Brigadier General Amir Ali Hajizadeh confirmed the IRGC’s plans to hold

missile exercises “in the near future.”

Outlook: Economic partnership in the post-sanctions era will bolster Iran’s military capabilities as it insists on preserving and

growing its missile program.

Domestic Politics

Two Assembly of Experts members pushed back on President Hassan Rouhani’s August 19 comments criticizing the Guardian

Council’s growing involvement in vetting political candidates. Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami called Rouhani’s comments “incorrect,”

while Ayatollah Abbas Kaabi stated that no one should “undermine” the Guardian Council’s legal and regulatory authority.

Guardian Council member Siamak Rahpeyk also defended the Guardian Council’s duty to vet candidates as based on both the

Constitution and years-long tradition. IRGC Commander Major General Mohammad Ali Jafari also criticized Rouhani indirectly,

stating on August 20, “This kind of language that would weaken one of the pillars of the Islamic Revolution, as in the Guardian

Council, damages national unity.”

Outlook: Despite Rouhani’s criticism, the Guardian Council will continue to vet candidates heavily before the upcoming

elections for Parliament and the Assembly of Experts.

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IRAN

SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:IRAN

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18 AUG: Planning and Strategic Supervision Deputy to the President Mohammad Bagher Nobakht reiterated that the

nuclear deal “does not require the approval of any institution other than the Supreme National Security Council.”

18 AUG: Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif rejected allegations that IRGC Qods Force Commander Maj. Gen.

Qassem Soleimani traveled to Russia in late July.

19 AUG: IRGC Deputy Commander Brig. Gen. Hossein Salami claimed that America’s military power has lost its

credibility “against Iran.”

19 AUG: Parliament elected 15 members of a special committee to review the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or

JCPOA.

20 AUG: IRGC Maj. Gen. Mohammad Ali Jafari criticized some Iranian officials for blindly supporting the nuclear deal and

restoring relations with the West.

20 AUG: Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) Secretary Ali Shamkhani reiterated the importance of the “resistance

economy” doctrine, claiming that “today, our main war is an economic war.”

20 AUG: Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI) Spokesperson Behrouz Kamalvandi dismissed a recent Associated

Press report claiming that Iran will use its own inspectors at the Parchin military site.

20 AUG: Artesh Navy Deputy Commander Rear Admiral Mahmoud Mousavi stated that the Artesh Navy 35th Fleet has

repelled three pirate attacks in the Gulf of Aden, including one on an Iranian oil tanker.

22 AUG: President Rouhani stated that Iran will buy and sell weapons “whenever and wherever we deem it necessary.”

22 AUG: The Defense Ministry introduced the new Fateh 313 missile in Tehran.

23 AUG: Iran reopened its embassy in London, while Britain reopened its embassy in Tehran.

24 AUG: In response to earlier comments from President Rouhani criticizing the Guardian Council, Assembly of Experts

member Ayatollah Ahmad Khamati stated that the Guardian Council has the duty to “stand against individuals in the

elections who seek to monopolize Parliament with wealth.”

24 AUG: An Iranian delegation traveled to Moscow to “ascertain the exact date for delivery of the S-300” surface-to-air

missile systems.

24 AUG: President Hassan Rouhani met with British Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond to discuss the need for “mutual

trust” between their two nations.

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ACRONYMS

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Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI)

International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)

African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM)

al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP)

al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS)

Ansar al Sharia Tunisia (AAS-T)

Asa’ib Ahl al Haq (AAH)

Coordination for the Movement of the Azawad (CMA)

Imghad Tuareg and Allies Self-Defense Group (GATIA)

Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC)

Islamic State in Iraq and al Sham (ISIS)

Libyan National Army (LNA)

Arab Movement of Azawad (MAA)

United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA)

Mujahideen Shura Council in Derna (MSCD)

National Movement for the Liberation of the Azawad (MNLA)

The Movement for Unity and Jihad in West Africa (MUJAO)

North Waziristan (NWA)

Pakistani Military (PakMil)

Possible military dimensions (PMD)

Somalia National Army (SNA)

South Waziristan (SWA)

Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP)

AEI’S CRITICAL THREATS PROJECT

Katherine Zimmermansenior al Qaeda analystkatherine.zimmerman@aei.org(202) 888-6576

Alexis Knutsenal Qaeda analystalexis.knutsen@aei.org(202) 888-6570

Paul BucalaIran analystpaul.bucala@aei.org(202) 888-6573

Heather Malacariaprogram managerheather.malacaria@aei.org(202) 888-6575

Marie DonovanIran analystmarie.donovan@aei.org(202) 888-6572

Mehrdad MoarefianIran analystmehrdad.moarefian@aei.org(202) 888-6574

For more information about AEI’s Critical Threats Project, visit www.criticalthreats.org.

Frederick W. Kagandirectorfkagan@aei.org(202) 888-6569

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