Presented by: Steve Nivin, Ph.D.Please contact Steve Nivin with any questions or comments at snivin@saberinstitute.org or 210-517-3609.

2014 MID-YEAR ECONOMIC UPDATE

SAN ANTONIO ECONOMY: STEADY AS SHE GOES

Presented on:August 27, 2014

2014 San Antonio Economic Forecast

Employment growth of 2.5-3.0% 22,800-27,500 jobs

Unemployment rate will decline to 4.8-5.0%

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Single family housing market is very strong in San Antonio and across Texas.

Source: Texas A&M Real Estate CenterMonths in inventory measures how many months will take to sell the current inventory, based on the average number of sales per month in the previous year.

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Increases in home prices are indicative of a tight market.

Source: Texas A&M Real Estate Center; Calculations by Steve Nivin, Ph.D.

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Unemployment rate in San Antonio second lowest among major metropolitan economies in Texas

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

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Unemployment rate in San Antonio has been oscillating between 4.7% and 4.9% from April through July.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; seasonal adjustment by Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

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Unemployment rate in San Antonio has been below long-term average since Jan. 2014.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; seasonal adjustment by Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

Avg. unemployment rate since 2000 = 5.6%

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Growth trend since end of recession similar to growth pre-recession.

Source: BLS; Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas; Calculations by Steve Nivin, Ph.D.

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Major metros and Texas showing solid growth through July 2014.

Source: BLS; Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas; Calculations by Steve Nivin, Ph.D.

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Employment growth has come back to its long-term (since 1991) trend

Source: BLS; Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas; Calculations by Steve Nivin, Ph.D.

Avg. annual employment growth in San Antonio since 1991 = 2.26%

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Employment growth in San Antonio was slower than some major metros in July but ahead of Dallas and the U.S.

Source: BLS; Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas; Calculations by Steve Nivin, Ph.D.

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Employment growth in San Antonio continues to be broad-based.

Source: BLS; Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas; Calculations by Steve Nivin, Ph.D.

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Financial activities showing strong growth and construction/mining picking up the pace

Source: BLS; Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas; Calculations by Steve Nivin, Ph.D.

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Education/health and hospitality have been leading employment growth. Growth in professional services also starting to accelerate.

Source: BLS; Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas; Calculations by Steve Nivin, Ph.D.

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Employment growth broad-based in Austin and being lead by other services, hospitality, professional services, and education/health sectors.

Source: BLS; Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas; Calculations by Steve Nivin, Ph.D.

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Employment growth in Houston being propelled by construction/mining, education/health, hospitality, and professional services sectors.

Source: BLS; Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas; Calculations by Steve Nivin, Ph.D.

Summary

Trends are on forecast…for the most part. Unemployment already at low end of forecast, so might see it

go a bit lower. Employment growth slightly below forecast as of July, but

optimistic economy will still reach at least lower end of forecast.

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Thank you!!!

Questions?

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