2012 number 7 - qeta · 4102.0 australian social trends, march quarter 2012 ... 8501.0 retail...

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Welcome to QETA Newsletter 7 2012. QETA NEWS QETA EVENTS 19 July UQ Student Economics Day 20 July QUT Student Economics Day 21 July QETA State Conference 23-27 July QETA UQ School of Economics Student Economics Competition 21 November QETA Annual General Meeting QETA CONFERENCE 2012 1. THE QETA CONFERENCE IS BACK IN 2012! QETA will be conducting a State Conference on Saturday 21 st July at Brisbane Girls Grammar School. All the usual Conference features keynote addresses, workshop sessions, trade displays, great food, good networking opportunities. It’s a must be there day for teachers of Economics. For members, the cost will be $132.00 (early bird registration by 11 th July) and $156 late registration (after 11 th July). Pre- Service teachers will be just $44.00. Program details will be available shortly. There will be some assistance for travel for regional and remote members to enable you to attend the Conference. More details on that shortly as well. Mark it in your diary now! We hope to see as many teachers of Economics as possible on that day. 2. ECONOMICS PROMOTION PACK In May this year, QETA will be sending to all our member schools a promotional pack containing a CD Rom, Economics posters, student brochures, stickers and other items to help you promote Economics as a subject choice for Year 10 students going into Year 11. It will be sent to the person who is listed as the mailing contact, so if this is your HOD or Librarian, make sure you look out for it. 3. STUDENT UNIVERSITY DAYS The annual Student Economic Days will be early in Term3. The UQ Day is Thursday 19 th July at St. Lucia and QUT Day is Friday 20 th July at Gardens Point Campus. Cost for the days is $5.50 per student. Teachers are free. These days are a great opportunity to have students see what a university is like and to hear from a number of professional economists, and also gain 4 hours credit for QCOT Professional learning for teachers. More details shortly. TEACHING ACTIVITY April Australian Heritage Week - 14th to 22nd World Heritage Day - 18th Earth Day - 22nd Anzac Day - 25th May OZ' Water Week 2011 - 8th to 10th World Migratory Bird Day - 14th to 15th National Volunteer Week - 14th to 20th International Museum Day - 18th Walk Safely to School Day - 18th International Day for Biological Diversity - 22nd National Sorry Day - 26th National Reconciliation Week - 27th to 3rd June June World Environment Day - 5th Global Wind Day - 15th World Day to Combat Desertification and Drought - 17th Rio+20 United Nations Conference on Sustainable Development - 20th to 22nd Red Nose Day - 29th

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Page 1: 2012 Number 7 - QETA · 4102.0 Australian Social Trends, March Quarter 2012 ... 8501.0 Retail turnover rises 0.2% in February 2012 (Media Release), Feb 2012 ... gas, and minerals,

Welcome to QETA Newsletter 7 2012.

QETA NEWSQETA EVENTS19 July UQ Student Economics Day20 July QUT Student Economics Day21 July QETA State Conference23-27 July QETA UQ School of Economics Student Economics Competition21 November QETA Annual General Meeting

QETA CONFERENCE 20121. THE QETA CONFERENCE IS BACK IN 2012! QETA will be conducting a State Conference on Saturday 21st July atBrisbane Girls Grammar School. All the usual Conference features – keynote addresses, workshop sessions, trade displays,great food, good networking opportunities. It’s a must be there day for teachers of Economics.For members, the cost will be $132.00 (early bird registration by 11th July) and $156 late registration (after 11th July). Pre-Service teachers will be just $44.00.Program details will be available shortly.There will be some assistance for travel for regional and remote members to enable you to attend the Conference. More detailson that shortly as well.

Mark it in your diary now! We hope to see as many teachers of Economics as possible on that day.2. ECONOMICS PROMOTION PACKIn May this year, QETA will be sending to all our member schools a promotional pack containing a CD Rom, Economics posters,student brochures, stickers and other items to help you promote Economics as a subject choice for Year 10 students going intoYear 11. It will be sent to the person who is listed as the mailing contact, so if this is your HOD or Librarian, make sure you lookout for it.

3. STUDENT UNIVERSITY DAYSThe annual Student Economic Days will be early in Term3. The UQ Day is Thursday 19th July at St. Lucia and QUT Day is Friday20th July at Gardens Point Campus. Cost for the days is $5.50 per student. Teachers are free. These days are a great opportunityto have students see what a university is like and to hear from a number of professional economists, and also gain 4 hourscredit for QCOT Professional learning for teachers. More details shortly.

TEACHING ACTIVITYAprilAustralian Heritage Week - 14th to 22ndWorld Heritage Day - 18thEarth Day - 22ndAnzac Day - 25thMayOZ' Water Week 2011 - 8th to 10thWorld Migratory Bird Day - 14th to 15thNational Volunteer Week - 14th to 20thInternational Museum Day - 18thWalk Safely to School Day - 18thInternational Day for Biological Diversity - 22ndNational Sorry Day - 26thNational Reconciliation Week - 27th to 3rd JuneJuneWorld Environment Day - 5thGlobal Wind Day - 15thWorld Day to Combat Desertification and Drought - 17thRio+20 United Nations Conference on Sustainable Development - 20th to 22ndRed Nose Day - 29th

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PROFESSIONAL LEARNINGFROM AITSLLinks to the support materials launched at the website:Teacher Standards Website· www.teacherstandards.aitsl.edu.au

Teachers Standards Animation· http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=S2NILPXmjws

Illustrations of Practice· http://www.teacherstandards.aitsl.edu.au/Illustrations

Teacher Feature· www.teacherfeature.aitsl.edu.au

AEF STUDY PROGRAMS: OPPORTUNITY FOR EDUCATORS TO EXPERIENCE CHINA, INDONESIA AND MYANMAREducators are invited to express their interest in the following Study Programs:# ‘Indonesia Uncovered’ from 1-14 July, 2012# ‘Riding the Iron Rooster of Economic Reform’ to China from 1-12 July, 2012# ‘Discover Myanmar’ from 5-17 January 2013Indonesia Uncovered: This program takes in four major cities. A range of experiences on this program will enable you to exploretraditional and contemporary Indonesian culture, learn about environmental issues, disaster management and sustainability,discover and engage with contemporary Islam and religious diversity, and meet with Indonesian educators.

Riding the Iron Rooster of Economic Reform to China is designed for business educators. The program focuses on the keyeconomic zones that have driven China’s meteoric rise as a global powerhouse. Program locations include Guangzhou,Shenzhen, Shanghai, Tianjin and Beijing.

Discover Myanmar: As Myanmar starts to open her doors to the world after a long period of isolation, be part of this uniqueprofessional learning opportunity to connect with Myanmar’s people and educators. Visit major sites of cultural and religioussignificance in both urban and rural settings and experience the monastic schooling system in this Buddhist land. Return to yourschool with new understandings of Myanmar’s history, traditions and contemporary society, alongside a range of resources thatwill bring the studies of Asia (history, geography, society, arts, literature and language) to life for your students.

All AEF Study Programs offer activities that build capacity to implement the Australian Curriculum.

For programs to China and Indonesia view itineraries and register your interest by 11 May at:http://www.asiaeducation.edu.au/studytours

Register your expression of interest for the Myanmar program by contacting: [email protected]

GLOBAL EDUCATION AND THE AUSTRALIAN CURRICULUM - Sustainability IndigiScapes, 17 Runnymeade Road, CapalabaDate: 17 May 2012 4:00 PMThis professional development session will offer teachers an opportunity to explore;* the Australian Curriculum* the Cross Curriculum Priority of Sustainability* the role of global education in developing the cross curriculum priorities within the Australian Curriculum*how organisations, such as IndigiScapes and the Global Learning Centre, can assist teachers within the region.

All attendees will receive FREE classroom resources as part of the presentation.

More information and online registration: Global Education and the Australian Curriculum - Sustainability

SOCIAL JUSTICE AND HUMAN RIGHTS IN THE AUSTRALIAN CURRICULUMSt Patrick's College, Shorncliffe - 60 Park Road, Shorncliffe Presented by the Global Learning Centre.Date: 08 May 2012 8:30 AMYou are invited to attend an important professional learning seminar exploring children’s rights in the Australian Curriculum.Children’s rights as set out in the Convention on the Rights of the Child are not abstract or aspirational. They are groundedfirmly in the basic human needs for life, growth and development (The Honourable Catherine Branson QC, 26 July 2011).

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Human rights education aims to build an understanding and appreciation for human rights through learning about rights andlearning through rights.Human rights education in school is an effective means to assist children to incorporate human rights values into their attitudes

and behaviours. Assisting young people to incorporate these values into their daily lives is a concrete way to prevent bullying,discrimination and promote inclusion and respect for diversity. (Australian Human Rights Commission June 2011).Presented by the Global Learning Centre, this unique PL opportunity will feature a keynote address by criminologist andchildren’s rights advocate Gwenn Murray as well as practical advice and FREE resources to assist you to implement this essentialelement of the Melbourne Declaration.

For session detailsClick Here

More information and online registration: Social Justice and Human Rights in the Australian Curriculum

RESOURCES1. FROM THE ABS4102.0 Australian Social Trends, March Quarter 2012http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/[email protected]/mf/4102.0?OpenDocument3218.0 Population growth surges in the outer suburbs - ACT (Media Release), 2010-11http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/[email protected]/MediaRealesesByCatalogue/102504A7A9021C0BCA2579D0000C02C3?OpenDocument8153.0 Almost half of all internet connections are mobile wireless (Media Release), Dec 2011http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/[email protected]/MediaRealesesByCatalogue/F2D32B785378BC9CCA25758D002B6804?OpenDocument1350.0 Australian Economic Indicators, Apr 2012http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/[email protected]/mf/1350.0?OpenDocument3218.0 Regional Population Growth, Australia, 2010-11http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/[email protected]/mf/3218.0?OpenDocument5209.0.55.001 Australian National Accounts: Input-Output Tables - Electronic Publication, 2007-08 Final (ReplacementContent)http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/[email protected]/mf/5209.0.55.001?OpenDocument5215.0.55.001 Australian National Accounts: Input-Output Tables (Product Details) - Electronic Publication, 2007-08 (Replacement Content)http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/[email protected]/mf/5215.0.55.001?OpenDocument8153.0 Internet Activity, Australia, Dec 2011http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/[email protected]/mf/8153.0?OpenDocument3101.0 Australia's population growth rate remains steady (Media Release), Sep 2011http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/[email protected]/MediaRealesesByCatalogue/CA1999BAEAA1A86ACA25765100098A47?OpenDocument3101.0 Australian Demographic Statistics, Sep 2011http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/[email protected]/mf/3101.0?OpenDocument5232.0 Australian National Accounts: Financial Accounts, Dec 2011http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/[email protected]/mf/5232.0?OpenDocument6354.0 Job Vacancies, Australia, Feb 2012http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/[email protected]/mf/6354.0?OpenDocument8731.0 Dwelling approvals fall in February (Media Release), February 2012http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/[email protected]/MediaRealesesByCatalogue/8F919D91E9992461CA2568A9001362B8?OpenDocument8731.0 Building Approvals, Australia, February 2012http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/[email protected]/mf/8731.0?OpenDocument8501.0 Retail turnover rises 0.2% in February 2012 (Media Release), Feb 2012http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/[email protected]/MediaRealesesByCatalogue/676AC4CC578D6559CA25773400204519?OpenDocument8501.0 Retail Trade, Australia, Feb 2012http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/[email protected]/mf/8501.0?OpenDocument6105.0 Australian Labour Market Statistics, Apr 2012http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/[email protected]/mf/6105.0?OpenDocument5372.0.55.001 International Merchandise Trade: Confidential Commodities List, Mar 2012http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/[email protected]/mf/5372.0.55.001?OpenDocument5609.0 Housing Finance, Australia, Feb 2012http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/[email protected]/mf/5609.0?OpenDocument8731.0 Building Approvals, Australia, February 2012 (Additional Information)http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/[email protected]/mf/8731.0?OpenDocument6202.0 Australia's unemployment rate remained steady at 5.2 per cent in March 2012 (Media Release), Mar 2012http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/[email protected]/MediaRealesesByCatalogue/46DFE12FCDB783D9CA256B740082AA6C?OpenDocument

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6202.0 Labour Force, Australia, Mar 2012http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/[email protected]/mf/6202.0?OpenDocument

2. FROM THE IMFGlobal and Regional Economic Outlook and the Role of Integration in Asia, speech by Naoyuki Shinohara, IMF DeputyManaging Directorhttp://www.imf.org/external/np/speeches/2012/032712.htmIMF Survey: Natural Resources Can Spur Growth But Need Good Management Although natural resources, including oil,gas, and minerals, have been a mixed blessing for developing countries, when managed well they can spur growth, boost jobsand revenues, and raise living standards more broadly, delegates at a conference in Kinshasa said.http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/2012/pol033012a.htmPress Release: IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde Emphasizes U.S. Role in Global Economyhttp://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/pr/2012/pr12118.htmCooperation and Connectedness-an Address to the Associated Press By Christine Lagarde, Managing Director, InternationalMonetary Fundhttp://www.imf.org/external/np/speeches/2012/040312.htmPress Release: IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde: Global Risks Remain, More Work Neededhttp://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/pr/2012/pr12130.htmSeizing the Moment- Thinking Beyond the Crisis, Address at the Brookings Institution By Christine Lagardehttp://www.imf.org/external/np/speeches/2012/041212.htm

3. FROM THE RBAAn audio webcast of remarks made by Dr Guy Debelle, Assistant Governor (Financial Markets) today to the Morgan StanleyGlobal Macro Investment Conference in Sydney is available on the website via the link below.http://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2012/index.htmlRemarks to be delivered by Dr Malcolm Edey to a panel session on Public Policy and Innovation at the FederalReserve Bank of Kansas City Payments Conference in Kansas City, USA are available on the Reserve Bank website.http://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2012/sp-ag-300312.htmlFor your information the Reserve Bank of Australia issued the Financial Aggregates for February 2012. You can view thisstatistical release at:http://www.rba.gov.au/statistics/frequency/fin-agg/2012/fin-agg-0212.htmlFor your information the Reserve Bank of Australia issued the Index of Commodity Prices for March 2012. You can viewthis statistical release at:http://www.rba.gov.au/statistics/frequency/commodity-prices/2012/icp-0312.htmlThe Reserve Bank of Australia has released the April 2012 issue of the Chart Pack.You can view the Chart Pack at: http://www.rba.gov.au/chart-pack/index.htmlA speech delivered by Dr Luci Ellis, to the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 2012 Financial Markets Conference inAtlanta, is available on the Reserve Bank website.http://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2012/sp-so-110412.html

4. FROM FEDERAL TREASURY"The revenue base and the 2012 Budget" Address to the Australian Business Economists' breakfastRead moreTreasurer's economic noteIf the events in Europe over the past 18 months teach us anything, it's the importance of budget discipline. Many governmentsignored the necessary economic reforms over a long period, allowing their spending to blow out and their budgets to becomeunsustainable. We see the consequences of this today in the region's sovereign debt crisis. The failure to maintain fiscaldiscipline has undermined confidence and economic growth across Europe. This has led to lengthening jobless queues andunemployment rates that are two, three and even four times our own. In Spain, for instance, the jobless rate is nearly 23 percent. Early yesterday morning we saw news that European finance ministers had agreed to increase funds for an emergency warchest to ward off any new threats. It's another positive step, but certainly European leaders have plenty more work to do to getbudgets back on a sustainable footing in the medium term, while at the same time supporting growth where possible. Europefaces a long, difficult road ahead so we shouldn't be surprised to see turbulence in the global economy for some time to come.Read moreTreasurer's economic noteA month out from the Budget, it's good to see there's a healthy debate underway in the media, the economic community andthe wider community about our economy and its outlook.Read more

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5.COAG REFORM COUNCIL REPORT INTO CITIES PLANNING2 April 2012The COAG Reform Council is right to highlight the key challenge in making our cities work better is closer integration of planningand development policies between our governments.The Business Council of Australia supports the key findings in the CRC’s report assessing the performance of our governments incities planning.Australia’s cities consistently rank well in international comparisons. But with our population projected to grow by around 60 percent by 2050, our cities will be home to more people and how they function will be critical to Australia’s future economic andsocial development.Read the full BCA statement at:http://www.bca.com.au/Content/101959.aspx

6.WE MAY NEVER HAVE HAD IT SO GOOD, BUT WE COULD BE GREAT: A PLAN TO LOCK IN AUSTRALIA’SPROSPERITY4 April 2012Business Council of Australia President Tony Shepherd has today outlined his thoughts on Australia’s economic and socialprogress, and the opportunities Australia must take advantage of to create and spread wealth in the community.In a keynote address to the Australia–Israel Chamber of Commerce in Sydney, Mr Shepherd said Australia is not facing aEuropean-style crisis – but we must reflect on what it will mean to miss our opportunities and fail to set ourselves up morestrongly for the future.He argued that Australians are nervous because they know the public policy questions currently being debated by our politiciansare often not the right ones we must address to build a stronger Australia in a changing world.To access the speech go to:http://www.bca.com.au/Content/101961.aspx

7. FROM PRODUCTIVITY COMMISSIONAustralia and New Zealand Productivity Commission release – Strengthening Economic Relations betweenAustralia and New Zealand (Issues Paper)View Issues Paper

8. NEW GLOBAL EDUCATION WEBSITEHave you explored our new website yet? There are the familiar Global issues with their related Case studies, Country profilesand Teaching activities. There is also the new searchable Resources gallery of images, videos, templates and links. In addition,there is clear information about teaching and learning with a global perspective and its relationship to the Australian Curriculum.www.globaleducation.edu.au

9. GLOBAL WORDSWorld Vision Australia and the Primary English Teaching Association Australia (PETAA) have produced 12 units of work formiddle primary, upper primary and junior secondary to integrate the teaching and learning of English and global citizenshipeducation.Global Words units of work are approached through a range of texts and text types based on the topics: Refugees and migration Indigenous peoples Neighbours, Asia/Pacific Sustainability

www.globalwords.edu.au

10. UNESCO WORLD ATLAS OF GENDER EQUALITY IN EDUCATION

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With over 120 maps, charts and tables, the UNESCO World Atlas of Gender Equality in Education enables readers to visualise theeducational pathways of girls and boys in terms of access, participation and progression from pre-primary to tertiary education.

The atlas illustrates the extent to which gender disparities in education have changed since 1970 and are shaped by factors suchas national wealth, geographic location, investment in education, and fields of study.An online data mapping tool for tracking trends, adapting the maps, and exporting the data is planned for mid-2012.www.unesco.org/new/en/education/themes/leading-the-international-agenda/gender-and-education/resources/the-world-atlas-of-gender-equality-in-education/

11. DISCUSSION PAPER FOR THE COAG BUSINESS ADVISORY FORUM11 April 2012

Last night the BCA released a discussion paper for the COAG Business Advisory Forum. The paper makes recommendations onhow competition and regulatory reform should be pursued and prioritised to achieve greater productivity and competitiveness. Itnominates six initiatives that should be prioritised as part of future reform efforts. The discussion paper is available at:http://www.bca.com.au/Content/101966.aspxYesterday the BCA also released supplementary information to its initial submission to the Australia in the Asian Century WhitePaper process. The supplementary information provides a detailed picture of Australia’s competitiveness and highlights five keypriorities to make the most of current and future opportunities from economic engagement with Asia. Download it at:http://www.bca.com.au/Content/101963.aspx

12. AUSTRALIAN COLLABORATIONPlease check out the site since it contains much new material, all freely accessible. Some of this new material is describedbelow.New Essays and ReportsThe Australian Economy: Will our prosperity be short-lived? by Ian McAuleyThis essay describes and analyses the Australian economy. It looks at deficiencies in the current policies espoused by both majorparties and sets out what should now be done to ensure a sustainable economy able to meet any challenges in the future.Long and supportive reviews of this essay have appeared in the Sydney Morning Herald, The Age and the Canberra Times.

Are we progressing? Comprehensive monitoring and reporting in Australia by Andrew Macintosh and Deb WilkinsonThis report is an extensive review of integrated (environmental, social and economic) monitoring and reporting regimes inAustralia and internationally. It discusses the different models need for different tasks and their adequacy.The report was launched at the Australian Council of Social Service (ACOSS)’s national conference in March 2012.

Global poverty by Michelle SoweyThis is a succinct and admired summary of issues related to global poverty. It describes the extent and significance of globalpoverty, considers its causes and then discusses what might be done to alleviate poverty. It describes the United NationsMillennium Development Goals and progress made towards meeting those goals.

New Fact and Issue SheetsThe Australian Collaboration now has over 40 Fact and Issue sheets on its web site. In the last few months a further five havebeen added to cover some important gaps:

Ecological economics by Simon O’Connor Australia in the Global Response to Climate change: The transition to a low carbon economy by Professor

Ross Garnaut Land degradation in Australia by Dr Mick Lumb The United Nations system by Professor Spencer Zifcak Increasing Australia’s effectiveness as a United Nations member by Professor John Langmore.

An external review has also been carried out of the content of all Fact and Issue Sheets to help bring them up to the bestpossible standard.

New School Resources

New Study Guides have been written to match the full range of Fact and Issue Sheets and other Democracy in Australia

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material.

Under School Resources on its new web site each Study Guide is shown alongside its matching Fact and Issue Sheet to makethe Guides as easy to use as possible.

The School Resources section of the Australian Collaboration also contains a list of Reference Sources, primarily for student use,with principal national and international sources shown related to some 20 major topics.

The Australian Collaboration has received a very positive response to its free web educational materials. Tributes have beenreceived from deputy principals, discipline heads, individual teachers, several library associations, and many teacherorganisations.

13. BRITISH RED CROSSBritish Red Cross provides a variety of free current, cross-curricula teaching activities. Although linked to the British curriculumthere are many useful ideas for Australian teachers. You can subscribe to its fortnightly newsletter, Newsthink, which looks atthe stories behind recent headlines.www.redcross.org.uk/What-we-do/Teaching-resources

14. RAHN: GAUGING THE FINANCIAL TIPPING POINTProbability is high for a new global downturnBy Richard W. RahnThe Washington Times Monday, March 12, 2012

Despite the encouraging U.S. jobs-report data last week, the fiscal situation in the United States and most of the rest of theworld continues to deteriorate. The European Central Bank said the eurozone’s economy is likely to contract this year. Greecefinally formally defaulted last week. The situation continues to get worse, and many observers think Greece will need anotherbailout within a year. The next time, the world’s taxpayers, rather than private banks, will be holding the bag. The situation inPortugal also is getting worse at an accelerating rate.

It’s not just Europe that is having problems. Last week, the Chinese reduced their expected growth rate from 8.2 percent to 7.5percent for 2012. There has been growing political deadlock in India, stopping many reforms, which will negatively impacteconomic growth. There are indications that Brazil also may be facing an economic slowdown.

The 10 largest economies account for a little more than two-thirds of the world gross domestic product (GDP). The United Statesalone accounts for about 23 percent of global GDP. Of the 10 largest economies, only China and India have economic growthrates higher than their deficits as a percentage of GDP, which means all of the others have a rising debt-GDP ratio, as can beseen in the accompanying chart. Studies have shown that once net debt-GDP ratios rise above 90 percent, it is very hard forcountries to avoid debt default and/or high inflation and very painful austerity. The United States, France and the UnitedKingdom are uncomfortably close to the 90 percent mark. Any further turndown in economic growth that would sharply reducetax revenues or any unexpected spending because of war or natural disaster would push these countries over the tipping point.

Italy may muddle through, thanks to partial economic reform and a large underground (untaxed) economy. Japan is well pastthe standard tipping point for most countries and has had two decades of very slow growth but has been saved from a Greek-style meltdown because of its very high domestic savings rate, which finances most of its debt. Even so, any adversecircumstance could push Italy or Japan into a downward fiscal spiral.

Of the 10 largest economies, only Brazil and Canada are in sufficiently strong fiscal positions to weather another global recessionwithout hitting the tipping point. Germany has had strong economic growth and has managed its economy much better than

most of the other Europeans, but it depends heavily on exports of machinery and high-tech goods, and as its customers weaken, it will follow them down.

The Washington Times

Most of the rest of the world - the other one-third of world GDP - looks little better thanthe big 10. On every continent, there are many smaller countries with uncomfortablyhigh debt-GDP ratios, and it would not take much to push them into a crisis situation.

The United States is in the best position to make the reforms necessary to take care ofits own economic problems and thereby become an engine of economic growth for the

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world, but the Obama administration continues to head in the wrong direction. It presented a budget that was botheconomically and politically unrealistic and did nothing to stop the rise in the debt-GDP ratio. The administration has proposedmassive tax increases on job creators and continues headlong in its rush to implement job- and economy-killing regulations.

Last week, President Obama said that “reducing the demand for oil would cause its price to drop” and also, “increasing thesupply of oil would not cause its price to drop.” Huh? Which is it? What the president has done with his endlessly contradictorystatements and actions on the economy is prove that he is the most economically illiterate president at least since Jimmy Carter.

What is unambiguously clear is that without a major course correction in the United States and the other major economies, anew global recession will occur sometime in the next few months or the next year or two at the latest. The economic growthand deficit numbers in the accompanying table are the best that are likely to happen. An incident in the Persian Gulf orelsewhere could send oil prices skyrocketing, which would ricochet quickly throughout the global economy, leading to a newglobal turndown. The U.S. recovery has been so tepid and incomplete that there is no margin for error. Any major policy errorby the Federal Reserve, which is skating on very thin ice, or further economic lunacies by the administration - like blocking theKeystone pipeline - could be the trigger to push the economy beyond the tipping point.

A good economic forecaster looks at the probabilities of all of those things that could go wrong and those that could go right.Yes, it is possible to describe a scenario in which the United States and the world could get out of their current economic fixwithout too much pain. Unfortunately, even though I am basically an optimist, the probabilities are much more likely that someevent will push much of the world over the tipping point within the next 24 months. It didn’t have to be this way.

Richard W. Rahn is a senior fellow at the Cato Institute and chairman of the Institute for Global Economic Growth.

15. SKILLS SHORTAGE CLAIMS MUST BE INDEPENDENTLY INVESTIGATED BEFORE AUSSIE JOBS OFFSHORED

Plans by Australian mining and construction companies to embark on an overseasrecruitment drive with Australian Government support are premature and a processmust be established for thorough market testing of the skilled labour requirementsof the resources sector.

ACTU President Ged Kearney said there had been no independent evidence to backup claims by mining magnates like Gina Rinehart that there weren’t enoughAustralian workers to meet the needs of future resources projects.

She said without an independent jobs board that advertised all vacant positions onmajor resource projects to rigorously market test the labour requirements of mining,

suspicions would remain this was simply a ploy to import cheaper, short-term workers.

“Australian workers across the nation deserve the opportunity to benefit from the resources boom, which will provide a massivejobs boon in coming years,” Ms Kearney said.

“While resources states such as Western Australia have very low unemployment, workers across the rest of the country arefacing increasing rates of insecure work. In fact, the latest ABS figures show that employment in the construction industry isactually falling.”

Ms Kearney said unions were not opposed to today’s announcement of an agreement to better match unemployed skilledAmerican workers with genuine, temporary skill shortages in the Australian resources sector.

This is based on an understanding that the initiative is confined to licensed trades only, operates only in the resourcesconstruction sector, and the ACTU and unions will be fully consulted in the implementation of the initiative.

“However, the fundamental difficulty with an initiative like this is that there is still no requirement for labour market testingunder current 457 visa program settings,” Ms Kearney said.

“This means there is no way unions, government, or the wider community can be confident that employers have made every

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effort to provide job and training opportunities to Australians before resorting to the use of overseas labour – whether from theUS or any other country.

“To help rectify this, we call on the Government to immediately implement the commitment made at last year’s Labor Partyconference to establish a national Jobs Board for the resources sector. This would be a simple, low-cost, practical measure toensure that Australian employers are making every effort to employ locally.

“There also need to be far more stringent training obligations on employers using 457 visa labour. Currently, the Governmenthas no idea if employers using overseas labour are making any effort to train Australian apprentices.

“Australia’s wealthiest person, Gina Rinehart, is very keen to fly workers to the remote north-west for her iron ore projects,under the guise of giving them a better life, yet she has no independent evidence that this is the case, or that Australianworkers cannot do the work in the first place.

“At the same time, there remain outstanding allegations that many workers flown to Australia on 457 visas are being underpaidand are doing very different work to what their employers claimed.”View the article here

16. BUSINESS LEADERS CALL FOR FOCUS ON PRODUCTIVITYPublished 2:27 AM, 4 Apr 2012 The Business SpectatorBusiness leaders and economists have jumped on Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) governor Glenn Stevens' linking of futureinterest rate cuts to required productivity growth, calling on the government to introduce a long-term, structural reform planthat loosens labour laws and cuts industry subsidies to put a greater focus on productivity and innovation, according to a reportby The Australian Financial Review.

As the RBA announced its decision to hold interest rates at 4.25 per cent, it also suggested that inflation numbers were healthyenough to consider a rate cut at its next meeting, so long as consumer price data due April 24 looked healthy.Mr Stevens repeated his stance that the RBA's forecasts assumed that “productivity growth in the economy increases somewhatas a result of the structural change now occurring,” according to the AFR.

One of the most productive sector's of the economy, the resources sector, has found itself increasingly hindered by industrialstrife, while Productivity Commission chairman Gary Banks has criticised the role of government subsidies for strugglingmanufacturing companies.

Shadow Treasurer Joe Hockey criticised the government's efforts to boost productivity.“The dead hand of this Labor governmenthas contributed to the decline in the nation's productivity growth,” he said, according to the AFR. “Business confidence has beeneroded by a series of anti-business measures and increased red tape and now we have the job killing carbon tax just around thecorner.”

ANZ chief economist Warren Hogan said the RBA's linking of productivity with accepting structural change in the economy waskey.

“A government that is trying to assist the flexibility of the economy, that is trying to assist the changes that are going on, asopposed to ... resisting the changes that are going on, that is crucial for the productivity story,” he said, according to the AFR.

17. EMPLOYERS ARE USING AWARD REVIEW TO BRING BACK THE WORST OF WORKCHOICESPublished: 10/04/2012A major business group has today confirmed that the goal of a new push by employers is to cut wages and conditions inAwards.

Interviewed on ABC radio in Melbourne this morning, the Executive Director of the National Retail Association, Gary Black,confirmed that employers were using the current review of the Award system to seek a “radical overhaul” of wages, hours ofwork, penalty rates and other conditions.

Mr Black said that employers wanted to introduce a commission-based system for retail employees, reduce penalty rates, andcut the pay of new employees:“There certainly will be some capacity for some people to be paid less. If we get an induction provision… then new employeesentering the industry will be paid less than what they would otherwise get.”(Gary Black on Mornings With Jon Faine, ABC 774, 10 April 2012)

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ACTU Secretary Jeff Lawrence said this was confirmation that Australian workers are facing a new push from employers to cutwages and conditions in Awards.

The ACTU is today releasing analysis of employer submissions to Fair Work Australia’s review of Awards which shows thatemployers are attempting to cut penalty rates, allowances and overtime, with no compensation.

Mr Lawrence said that employers were determined to bring back the worst elements of WorkChoices.

“Employer groups want a 24-hour, seven-day-a-week economy in which they have all the flexibility, the power and control overwho works when and how little they are paid,” Mr Lawrence said. “Cutting conditions and penalty rates without some kind ofcompensation is simply taking money out of workers’ pockets.”

The submission from the National Retail Association wants a Fair Work Australia decision last year for a 90-minute-a-dayminimum for students to be expanded into other retail Awards.

Other employer submissions argue for:* Reduced penalties for casual employees, particularly on weekends and public holidays.* New annualised salary arrangements that would avoid payment of allowances, penalties and overtime.* A narrowing of the definition of shift work to reduce access to pay and leave entitlements.

Discounted rates for apprentices and trainees where adult rates have always applied.

“All these conditions exist to protect low-paid workers who are required to work weekends and other unsociable hours.

“The sole aim of the employer agenda is to cut the take-home pay of millions of Australian workers.

“Employers forget that cutting wages means that people have less to spend, which is not good for business. Fair Work Australiamust recognise these submissions for what they are, a blatant attempt to restore the worst of Work Choices and reduce wagesfor Australian workers.”View the article here

17. WORLD BANK CUTS CHINA'S GROWTH OUTLOOKPublished 9:53 PM, 12 Apr 2012 The Business Spectator.The World Bank cut its growth forecast for China, adding to warnings the world's second-largest economy might slow tooabruptly, and said Beijing should be ready to launch a new stimulus if needed.

The bank stressed it expects a "soft landing" but trimmed its growth outlook this year to a still-robust 8.2 per cent from 8.4 percent. It cited US and European economic woes and Chinese lending and investment curbs imposed to cool an overheatedeconomy.

Beijing is trying to steer growth that spiked to 10.4 per cent in 2010 to a sustainable level without causing the economy to stall.Some analysts say it is succeeding, but others say government controls, coupled with last year's plunge in export demand, mightcause growth to nosedive, raising the risk of job losses and unrest.

"While the prospects for a soft landing remain high, there are concerns that growth slows too quickly," the bank said in aquarterly report on China.

The Washington-based bank, which acts as a consultant to governments and lends to finance anti-poverty programs, said that ifthe downturn worsens, Beijing should be ready to cut taxes and step up social spending to shore up growth.In a "very volatile environment" the government needs "to be very flexible and to really look at the data as they come in monthby month and be ready to move," the bank's lead China economist, Ardo Hansson, said at a news conference.

A slump in the world's second-largest economy could have global repercussions, hurting exporters of oil and other commodities,industrial components and consumer goods. It also might fuel political tensions as the ruling Communist Party prepares for ahandover of power this year to younger leaders.

China's economic growth declined steadily throughout 2011 and fell to a 2 1/2-year low of 8.9 per cent in the three monthsending in December. Analysts expect a further decline in the first quarter of this year. Those data are due to be released Friday.Import growth declined in March to 5.5 per cent from 7.7 per cent in the January-February period in possible sign Chinesedomestic demand might be weakening.

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Beijing is trying to encourage domestic consumption to reduce reliance on exports and investment to drive growth. Analysts saythat will take years and require sweeping changes in economic, tax and social welfare policies.

"The bright spot in the economy has been consumption, which has remained strong," said Hansson.

Beijing reacted to the 2008 global crisis with a 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion) flood of spending and bank lending that helped Chinarebound quickly but left an aftermath of inflated housing prices and other problems.

A new stimulus "would need to be carefully crafted, keeping in mind longer-term effects and objectives," the World Bank said.As for what might trigger a response, "it would just be if you saw suddenly the demand growth in the economy from whateversource slowing down much faster than you would like," said Hansson.

"At that point those actions would probably begin."

The bank's sibling agency, the International Monetary Fund, warned in February that China's forecast growth this year could becut by nearly half if Europe, its biggest trading partner, fails to resolve its government debt problems and suffers a sharpsetback.

Chinese leaders responded to last year's plunge in global demand by promising to ease lending controls and help strugglingexporters. They said lending curbs aimed at cooling home prices would stay in place.

The bank said China faces risks if developed countries that are its key export customers suffer a deeper downturn or if its ownreal estate market declines further.

"If something in the world were to go much worse than expected, than that obviously would have an impact on China," saidHansson.

Real estate is an important pillar of China's economy, but communist leaders say despite pain for developers, controls aimed atcooling prices will remain in effect until housing costs decline further, though they have given no target.

Next year, growth should rebound to 8.6 per cent, the World Bank said.

Longer-term, it said China's outlook depends on the government's ability to manage the shift to more self-sustaining domesticconsumption.

It said gains from industrialisation and the migration of workers to cities will diminish while the labour force is forecast to shrink,increasing the number of retirees supported by each working person.

"The welcome efforts to rebalance the economy are expected to not only alter the pattern of growth, but also bring slower,though higher-quality, headline growth," the bank said.

In a report in February, the bank and a Chinese Cabinet think tank said Beijing needs to adopt a new economic strategy if itwants to avoid a sharp downturn and achieve its goal of creating a high-income society.

Communist leaders need to make the economy more efficient by reducing the dominance of state companies, which still controlmany industries, and encouraging free markets and private enterprise, the report said.

18. AUSTRALIA 'WAY BEHIND' ON INFRASTRUCTURE: BCAPublished 7:34 AM, 13 Apr 2012 The Business SpectatorBy a staff reporter

Australia has fallen far behind the rest of the developed world in key infrastructure, according to new Business Council ofAustralia (BCA) president Tony Sheperd.

In an interview with Business Spectator's KGB, Mr Sheperd said he believed Australia has "lost focus" and "lost its way", and thishad spurred him to take the job.

"I think we came out of those huge reforms of the 80s and 90s with a little bit of ‘reformitis’ and dropped the ball and didn’trealise that this constant improvement in a globally competitive world is vital," he said.

"So, we took the eye off the ball in terms of economic infrastructure in particular."

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Asked about the main worries currently, Mr Sheperd said large payments from companies delivering infrastructure to "winindustrial peace" was a key concern.

"The BCA has done a body of work which we’ll release in the not-too-distant future comparing the cost of delivery of majorprojects in Australia with the cost of delivering similar projects in the United States and the Gulf region and I can tell you nowAustralia is way behind the eight ball," he said.Mr Sheperd also gave a direct reproach to Treasurer Wayne Swan, advising that a budget surplus is desirable, but not if it hurtsbusiness.

"We don’t believe that a surplus at any cost is wise and certainly not at the expense of productivity or growth," he said.

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19. WORTH THINKING ABOUT?

20. A LESSER LUSTRE FOR THE AUSTRALIAN DOLLARStephen Bartholomeusz Business Spectator Published 1:03 PM, 11 Apr 2012Apart from the fact that it was a silly idea anyway, Paul Howes’ plea for changes to the Reserve Bank’s charter to allow it to tryto actively influence the value of the Australian dollar was poorly timed, given that the dollar is now trading at its lowest levels inthree months and about 7.5 cents below last year’s peak.

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That could, of course, change. Part of the explanation for the sharp fall in the dollar against the US dollar over the past threeweeks in particular is the renewed anxiety about the stability of the eurozone, a nervousness that has increased sharply in thepast week as fresh doubts about the ability of Spain and Italy to implement their tough fiscal programs surfaced.

While the eurozone and US – awash with the liquidity pumped out by their central banks risk assets – and the US sharemarket inparticular had been on something of a run over the past three months, it appeared that the European Ponzi trick of theEuropean Central Bank lending € 1 trillion of cheap three-year money to southern European banks so that they could buy theircountries’ sovereign debt to keep bond yields down had worked.

The ECB interventions, however, weren’t solutions to the eurozone’s problems but simply bought some breathing space and, ittranspires, a false sense of optimism that the worst of the eurozone crisis was over – which took some of the pressure off thepoliticians charged with implementing austerity programs.

All through last year it was obvious that whenever the risks of an imminent implosion in Europe receded the Australian dollar –and its Canadian counterpart – rose as all the cheap liquidity parked around the globe was deployed into ‘riskier’ assets.Conversely, at the first hint of bad news in Europe, or the US, those funds flooded out of risk assets and back into the perceivedsafe havens of US Treasuries and gold.

The combination of the fresh wobbles in Europe and last week’s weak US employment numbers mean that this is very much a‘risk on’ environment and therefore the speculative support for the Australian dollar – attractive by the high real returns in thebond market – isn’t there.

There is, of course, another reason for the dollar’s weakness and one that could keep a lid on its value for some time.Our terms of trade have peaked, at least for the moment, with commodity prices down across the board, driven by thedeliberate slowing in China’s growth rate and the maturation of the infrastructure phase of its development.

China is now targeting growth of 7.5 per cent this year, which would be its lowest rate of growth in eight years, and there aresome concerns that it might undershoot even that target. With both the European and US economies still stalling and theChinese deliberately slowing their domestic activity it isn’t surprising that China’s growth rate has tapered (On the cusp of aChina rebalancing, April 11).

If commodity prices don’t surge again, and the eurozone remains a threat to global stability and growth – as one would expect itto be for some years even if the potential implosions of the too-big-to-fail/too-big-to-rescue southern European economies areavoided – it would difficult to imagine the Australian dollar climbing back towards the $US1.10 level unless for some reasonthere was an historic loss of confidence in the US dollar.

With the Reserve Bank signalling last week that it is inclined, the March quarter CPI outcome permitting, to cut official ratesagain next month, there is another reason for our dollar to be a little weaker.

It should, however, remain at levels that are still historically high because, while China’s growth rate has slowed it is still solidgrowth over a vastly larger economic base than it had before it ignited the resources boom and resource companies are stillscrambling to expand their output to supply that growth.

That is having, and will continue to have, a significant adverse impact on manufacturing industry and tourism. There is a majorrestructuring of the non-resource side of the economy occurring, with considerable job losses. A highly contractionary budget,combined with the looming introduction of the carbon tax, isn’t going to help.

A significant further weakening in the value of the dollar – a return to its pre-boom levels – however, while highly unlikely, mightbe an even worse outcome as it would probably signal that the resources boom was over and that the hundreds of billions ofdollars being invested in expanding the sector’s capacity had been wasted.

21. A TANGLE OF INTEREST RATE FISH HOOKSGraham WhitePublished 4:50 PM, 11 Apr 2012 Business Spectator

The head of the Australian Workers Union chief Paul Howes has called on the federal government to urgently review the charterof the Reserve Bank of Australia, suggesting its current policy setting is inappropriate while the manufacturing industry strugglesunder the weight of a high Australian dollar.

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It’s useful here to note here what the so-called Charter of the RBA says: in part, that its powers should be “exercised in such amanner as, in the opinion of the Reserve Bank board, will best contribute to: the stability of the currency of Australia; themaintenance of full employment in Australia; and the economic prosperity and welfare of the people of Australia”.

What this means in terms of the conduct of monetary policy is that the Reserve Bank pursues what is called 'inflation targeting'and has done so since the early 1990s. As it argues, this strategy is seen as a precondition of achieving the aims set out in itscharter.

In essence the issue Howes is raising is whether inflation should be the top priority in the RBA’s decisions about interest rateswhile manufacturing, and steel in particular, has been bearing the brunt of a high Australian dollar.

Interestingly, one government response so far – not surprising, but somewhat annoying – is that such a discussion is“unproductive” because of the independence of the reserve bank which, the feeling seems to be, should be sacrosanct.This kind of response is rather unhelpful and potentially a red herring. The issues raised by Howes are not necessarily the sameas the question of the independence of the Reserve Bank.

More importantly, the issues raised by Howes are also a bit more profound than simply a question about the current stance ofmonetary policy – that is, about the current settings on interest rates – and should serve as a basis for an on-going discussionabout macroeconomic policy.

Howes’ argument opens the door to a deeper frustration with the dominant form of monetary policy wisdom which assignsmonetary policy primarily to controlling inflation, to the neglect, as some see it, of other policy goals.

For some, the problem is whether one policy – interest rate policy – can be used simultaneously to achieve more than one goal.Should it be used to target inflation if there is a conflict between that and the interest rate levels required by other goals, suchas strong economic growth and low unemployment?

It is probably fair to say that this is much less of a dilemma for the conventional economist. He or she might respond with thepoint, raised by the current Reserve Bank governor Glenn Stevens himself in the past, that there is a long-term growth pathwhich monetary policy (and for that matter fiscal policy) can do little about.

What it can do about this, according to conventional wisdom, is to get inflation under control and minimise the extent theeconomy is deviating from that long-term path.

In this view, monetary policy can do something more persistent about the rate of inflation. Herein lies, albeit crudely put, theconventional rationale for the assignment of monetary policy to the task of keeping inflation under control.

And just for good measure, to keep those pesky politicians’ hands away from interest rates, let’s make the central bankindependent. The Reserve Bank will know better than politicians, so the argument goes, the risk of increasing inflation with littlegain, of being tempted to use interest rates in the short-term to target unemployment or a sluggish growth.

In a nutshell this would be a conventional economic response to the kind of argument Paul Howes has put.

Of course, there will be other arguments, one being that trials of the manufacturing sector reflect structural changes and to theextent policy can help, it is microeconomic reform that is called for. I suspect this is code for greater “labour market flexibility”and some of the worrying claims this term sometimes brings with it.

Needless to say, as with most economics, there is dissent within the ranks about the assignment of monetary policy. And dissentis something the economics profession is always coy about admitting.

That dissent would argue that macroeconomic policy, including monetary policy, can have persistent long-term effects on thegrowth rate of the economy. Interest rates can affect in a persistent way not only the level of economic activity, but relativeprices and also the distribution of income.

This dissent starts from the view that long-run growth is dependent on the growth of aggregate demand and not growth in theeffective quantity of resources. Policy at the macro as well as at the micro level can impact on that long-run growth of demand.In other words, the dissenting voice would note that interest rate policy does not just have persistent effects on the rate ofinflation.

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But if you accept this proposition, things become a lot less black and white. The justification for using interest rates as thepreferred tool to target inflation is much weaker. One then has to weigh up the different objectives – low inflation, lowunemployment, strong growth.

And the argument that the latter two will be cleaned up as long as we get inflation right has much less force.

Of course, one then has to think of alternative policies which may be brought to bear on inflation; either in the form of incomespolicies or through imaginative use of the tax system.

As to the former, the Australian experience is not a glorious one, and turned out to be not much more than a device for cuttingreal wages.

As to the latter, this is something that requires an imaginative debate we have not had in this country. But the groundwork isthere to the extent that we have been thinking about radical surgery to the tax system in this country for some time.The independence of the central bank is a somewhat thorny issue. Dispensing with the conventional economic wisdom does notin and of itself means dispensing with a degree of independence.

It does however mean that such independence can’t be justified on the grounds that monetary policy needs to focus primarilyon inflation.

It may well be that arguments for independence are consistent with the dissenting view of macroeconomic policy whichrecognises its influence on the long-run growth path of the economy. Though such arguments will have to contend with thequestion of why it should monetary policy should be more independent of the government of the day than other policy arms.On the other hand, it is interesting to reflect on the point made by other economists over the years – some orthodox, some non-orthodox – that monetary policy is far too important to be left in the hands of an independent central bank and should “fallwithin the orbit of general economic policy with the government of the day bearing full responsibility for it”.

Graham White is a senior lecturer at the University of Sydney's School of Economics.

WEBSITEGLOBAL EDUCATION WEBSITE – NEW!Check out the Global Education Website – It’s new and refreshed and contains a wealth of information relevant to Economics,Geography and other Social Science subjects!

BRITISH RED CROSS This site has some useful teaching activities for world events and social issues www.redcross.org.uk

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Doug CaveQETA [email protected]://www.qeta.com.auIf you wish to unsubscribe from this newsletter, send an email to [email protected] with the word “unsubscribe”in the subject line.If you know of others who would like to subscribe, have them send an email to [email protected] with“subscribe” in the subject line. To subscribe, they or their school must be a member of QETA.