2011 - swi security intelligence report

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 SWI SECURITY INTELLIGENCE REPORT Volume 1 Issue 13  Ma 19, 2011 Why the post-Laden world has become more dangerous   AQ Leadership Struggle  Indo-Pak border: Rising tensions  Indians targeted in Afghanistan  Call for revenge attacks Inside  Maoist target infra firms  Dropbox security: a sham?  UP sees farmer agitation  New regime in West Bengal …and more 

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Page 1: 2011 - SWI Security Intelligence Report

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SWI SECURITY INTELLIGENCE REPORT

olume 1 Issue 13 Ma 19, 2

Why the post-Laden world has become more dangerous

   AQ Leadership Struggle

  Indo-Pak border: Rising tensions

  Indians targeted in Afghanistan

  Call for revenge attacks

Inside

  Maoist target infra firms

  Dropbox security: a sham?

  UP sees farmer agitation

  New regime in West Bengal

…and more 

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India to provide every state with

communication interception system

P15

Copyright © Security Watch India 2011

ecurity Watch India (SWI) is a non-partisan, not-for-profit organization that addresses issues in the space of the relatively new homeland se

sector. SWI works towards a secure tomorrow by enhancing security awareness and consciousness in Indian industry and civil society. SW

uides and facilitates potential investors interested in the Indian homeland security business. Security Watch India is not responsible for the

ws or opinion expressed by the author(s) in this report. Republication or re-dissemination of the contents of this document are expressly pro

without the written consent of Security Watch India.

Risks in a post bin Laden world: brief 

summary

P5

Al Qaeda’s leadership struggle poses

threats

P5

bin Laden as a martyr raises risks of 

revenge attacks

P7

Risks for Indians in Afghanistan P8

Rising tensions on Indo-Pak border P9

Contents

Lead Analysis

Risks of getting caught in a crossfire

exceptionally high in Jharkhand

P16

Maoist Insurgency

Maoists continue to target construction

companies causing Rs 100-120 crore

damage in 2011

P10 

Industrial Risk

Dropbox alleged to have lied about its

security

P13

Cyber Protection

Risk Assessment Map P3

Travel Advisory: Afghanistan, Yemen

and Bahrain

P18

Short Briefs P4

Regular Features

For a free    four-month trial subscription  please

contact: [email protected] or visit our

website:  http://securitywatchindia.org.in.  You can

avail these reports for a year by joining Security

Watch Indian Membership program or independent

annual subscription for just Rs. 4800 (US$ 110).

The subscription will afford you latest and most

relevant information on Indian Homeland Security

situation that will help you make right decisions for

your business.

Business Opportunity

Post-poll violence intensifies in WestBengal P12

Farmer Agitation in UP sees at least four

dead; risks to disrupt Agra

P14

Political Disturbance

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Risk Assessment Map 

GJM and GNLF engage in

clashes resulting in at least

one death

Maoists call for a nation-wide

strike on 21 & 22 May

© Security Watch India

4 May – 19 May, 2011

CPI(M) kills five of 

rival Maoist faction

Maoists attack NH 33

construction site; cause

damage Rs 40-50 crore

Land agitation claims

at least 4 lives; puts

Agra, Delhi at risk

Spate of post-poll violence

spreads across the state

Leaked intelligence

claims links between

Pune-based student

organization and Al

Qaeda

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Short Briefs

Violence breaks out in Darjeeling 

Members of the GNLF allegedly beat up and killed a

member of the Gorkha Janmukti Morcha (GJM)

spreading violence in the hills before the latter

called for a 24-hour strike. Transport and tea

plantations remain unaffected in the first strike of 

this tourist season. Mobs have targeted GNLF

members and have torched two houses at Dilaram,

35 kms away from Darjeeling. The local police have

promised to keep the situation under control.

Jury ready for Rana 

A twelve member jury, with six alternates, has been

selected for Pakistani-Canadian Tahawwur Rana,

who is being tried in Chicago in connection with the

26/11 attacks. Rana is on trial over allegations that

he aided David Headley, the purported mastermind

of the deadly attack that killed over 160 people. He

was said to have allowed Headley to use his

immigration firm as a front for Headley's

surveillance activities in Mumbai.

No new engines for Jaguar jets 

The Indian Air Force’s Jaguar Jets might not get a

new engine after all. Honeywell, which offered its F-

125IN engine, and Rolls Royce, received a Request

for Proposal (RFP). However, Rolls Royce opted out

saying they had previously offered to re-engine the

Adour 811 and Adour 821 but heard nothing back.

Despite becoming the largest defence importer in

the world, India is still facing skepticism from many

defence manufacturers over its commitments.

Saudi diplomat killed in Pakistan 

In a targeted shooting, four gunmen on motorbikes

killed a Saudi Arabian diplomat in Karachi, near the

Bahrain consulate. Police officials confirmed that

gunmen intercepted the car and fired about a

dozen bullets killing the victim instantly. The

incident occurred five days after improvised

explosive devices (IEDs) were found lobbed in the

Saudi Consulate. No group has claimed

responsibility for the incidents.

Facebook insecure? 

According to Symantec, the Social Media giant

Facebook may contain a flaw that has given access

of personal information of as many as 100,000

users to some advertisers. Apparently, certain

Facebook applications have been inadvertently

handing advertisers access tokens -- strings of 

numbers and letters that can be used by a browser

to access Facebook accounts over the Web.

Facebook has not responded to this allegation.

Pune students linked to Al Qaeda 

Reports suggest that according to intelligence

officials that a student organization based in Pune

named Islamic Students Congregation played host

to a Sudanese Al Qaida leader in 2007 and may

have deeper linkages with the international

terrorist organization. As per the disclosures of 

Guantanamo Bay detainees, released by WikiLeaks,

at least three of the inmates at the prison had

stayed at the organisation’s facilities in New Delhi.

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Al Qaeda seems to chosen a new transitional leader to head the infamous terror group after

the demise of Osama bin Laden. This week, the organization announced appointment of Saif 

al-Adel, a former Egyptian colonel, as the new leader of Al Qaeda. The appointment has

surpassed Ayman al-Zawahiri, the former number two to bin Laden and, until recently,

considered an obvious choice as the latter‟s successor. 

As discussed in our previous issue (SWI Security Intelligence Report Vol 1 Issue 12) this

outcome, with certain dissension over new leadership was the most likely outcome to bin

Aftermath of binLaden's death

Al Qaeda witnessesleadership strruggle

Risk of increasednumber of attacks

bin Laden gainsmartyr status

among some in Pak

Along with growinganti-US sentiments,this may pressure

terror groups to carryout revenge attacks

Tensions increaseon the Indo-Pak

border

Likely to fizzle outbarring few

ceasefire violations

Growing Indo-Afghan relations

concern Pakextremists.

Indians may betargeted inAfghanistan

Risks in a post bin Laden world

New Al Qaeda leadership increases risks for South Asia

and US

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Laden‟s death, as opposed to a seamless succession by al-Zawahiri or a complete collapse

of Al Qaeda. In fact, from all the signs the new leadership has emerged out of at least some

friction within the organization.

Some analysts have argued that the choice of al-Adel as the new leader may have been

unanimous with consent of al-Zawahiri who may not have wanted the throne. However, it

seems unlikely. First, the confirmation by Al Qaeda of bin Laden‟s death seems to have

serve no political or tactical purpose of Al Qaeda which would have benefited more from the

skepticism over American claim to have killed its leader. By issuing the statement, the

terror group put that skepticism and confusion to rest and in fact aided its sworn enemy the

United States.

More importantly, even barring al-Zawahiri, al-Adel does not seem to be the best choice,

either in skills or seniority, to lead the group. Leaders like Abu Yahya al-Libi, group‟s leading

theologian, Khalid al-Habib, one of Al Qaeda‟s top military commanders and Adnan el

Shukrijumah, chief of the group‟s “external operations council” responsible for attacks on

US and European soil, were all surpassed in favor of al-Adel. This strange hierarchical

disparity is indicative of the fact that the international terrorist group is undergoing

succession troubles and makes the possibility of a unanimous support of al-Saif highly

unlikely.

What seems more likely is that al-Saif may be attempting to usurp other hands in Al

Qaeda‟s leadership council for a bid to become the permanent chief. It may be also possible

that he may have been temporarily put as the nominal head of the group while the

leadership tries to sort out the succession issue amongst itself. In the second case, there

may be more than two contenders for the top spot.

Given these factors, future of the group holds two possibilities, all two increasing the risks

for US and South Asia. It may be that al-Saif takes over the reins and tries to establish

himself as the true leader, in which case he would need to prove himself by carrying outsome successful and spectacular attacks. Alternatively, internal dissent within the leadership

will result in a weakened core and greater autonomy to local commanders. That may lead to

more localized targeting by various groups and may even be the catalyst that jerks Al

Qaeda out of its inertia which the group seems to have gone into for the last few years.

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Either way, the world can expect a more active Al Qaeda and the risk for global terrorist

attacks remain high.

While the reaction to Osama bin Laden‟s death in many countries like United States and

India has been the one of relief and jubilation, it has been rather mixed in many countries

especially Pakistan. Since the death of Al Qaeda‟s leader on 2 May in a covert American

Special Forces operation, Pakistan has witnessed an emotional outburst in parts of the

country supporting bin Laden and mourning over his death. Combined with the large

number of civilian deaths in recent weeks by US drone attacks within Pakistan borders

which have fuelled anti-US sentiments to a peak, this trend has created increased risks of 

terror attacks in coming months.

In Pakistan, many semi-political and religious groups have openly protested against bin

Laden‟s killing. On 14 May, Pakistani terror group Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT) and its charitable

front organization, Jamaat-ud-Dawa carried out an anti-US demonstration attended by close

to 4000 protesters. Hafiz Saeed, the leader of Jamaat-ud-Dawa, called bin Laden a martyr

and demanded that the Pakistani government break ties with the US following its raid on 2May that killed the al-Qaida chief. A report records that since 2 May, more than 100,000

Osama bin Laden posters have been sold in Pakistan.

As discussed in the previous report (SWI Security Intelligence Report Vol 1 Issue 12) an

immediate revenge attack from Jihadist groups over bin Laden‟s death was unlikely since it

was doubtful that these groups kept a secret plan to put into effect in case of bin Laden‟s

death. In fact, other than an attack by Tehrik-e-Taliban in Pakistan, which killed 80, none of 

the other terrorist activities around the globe has been even partly attributed to bin Laden‟s

death.

However, given the rising pro bin Laden sentiment among their core constituents, coupled

with anger over US actions, the pressure on Pakistani militant groups is expected to

increase. Accordingly, risk of terror attacks against American targets has increased

significantly in South Asia. While such attacks are most likely to be carried out in Pakistan

Rising pro bin Laden sentiments may pressure terror

groups to carry out revenge attacks; American targets inSouth Asia at risk

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itself, given the political outlook and capabilities of many organizations like LeT, India also

faces the risk of bin Laden revenge.

The Afghan Intelligence Agency recently nabbed two assassins in Jalalabad who were hired

to kill the Indian Consul General. The assassins alleged that the Pakistani Inter Service

Intelligence (ISI) had hired them for an amount of Rs 1.2 lakhs to target the top Indian

diplomats in Afghanistan. Previously, Afghan officials had confirmed involvement of 

Pakistan-based, Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT) in

an attack against the Indian medical

mission that killed seven Indians in

anassault in Kabul in 2010.

Further, the Indian Prime Minister,

Manmohan Singh‟s visit to Afghanistan

soon after the death of Osama bin Laden

is symbolic of the budding relations

between the two nations. In an attemptto strengthen Indo-Afghanistan ties,

Singh pushed for stronger economic ties

and promised to support an “Afghan-led” 

peace initiative involving the Taliban.

This, coupled with the on-going peace

initiative dialogues with Pakistan, has increased the levels of discomfort amidst anti-India

terrorist groups in Af-Pak region. Afghanistan has always been vulnerable to insurgent

activity but remains strategic ground for the business interests in both Pakistan and India.

However, from past experiences, any sign of improving relations between Afghanistan and

India has taken its toll on Indian citizens living and working in Afghanistan.

In October 2010, Taliban militants attacked an Indian NGO is Kunar province with a rocket

killing two Indian nationals. In February that year, the Taliban carried out coordinated

Singh‟s visit to Kabul after the death of Osama bin Laden

has increased the chances of Indians being identified astargets in Afghanistan.

  Oct 2009: A Taliban suicide bomber detonated

his explosive laden car outside the Indian

Embassy in Kabul, killing 17 and injuring 80.

  February 2009: Insurgents killed Simon

Paramanathan, who was employed in an Italian

food chain, four months after he was kidnapped

as negotiations failed.

  July 2008: A suicide attack outside the Indian

Embassy in Kabul killed 41 people, including two

senior diplomats, and injured 140 others.

  April 2008: A suicide attack in Nimroz province

claimed the lives of two Indian Army’s Border

Road Organisation officials.

  December 2007: Two bombs were hurled into

the Indian consulate in Jalalabad. There were no

casualties.

Previous attacks on Indians in Afghanistan

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suicide attacks on two hotels in Kabul killing nine Indians including two Major rank Army

officers. The suicide attacks were aimed at targeting the guest house rented out by the

Indian Embassy for its staffers and those involved in developmental work in Afghanistan.

In a move to disrupt any growth in India-Afghanistan relations, the insurgents are likely to

up their ante targeting Indian organisations and nationals. Singh‟s visit to Afghanistan has

done two things: it has helped maintain the friendly relation India shares with Afghanistan

and it has also recognised Pakistan‟s proximity to the Taliban. The latter has increased the

chances of Indians becoming terror targets in Afghanistan. 

Since the death of Osama bin Laden, tensions between Indian and Pakistani miltary have

heightened. There is a growing fear in Pakistan that India will not hesitate to conduct a US-

like operation in Pakistan in a bid to arrest or eliminate wanted terrorists. Even as the

Indian Prime Minister, Manmohan Singh has rubbished any such claims, Pakistani Inter

Service Intelligence (ISI) has issued warning against an Indian „invasion‟. The ISI chief,

Ahmed Shuja Pasha, has warned India of a retaliatory attack. Pasha has claimed to have

identified certain Indian targets to cause maximum damage and has carried out „rehearsals‟ 

in case of need.

Adding to the tension on the border, India had held war games, codenamed Vijayee Bhava

(Be victorious) involving over 50,000 of troops on the Indo-Pak border in Rajasthan. The

exercise involved mechanised maneuvers and latest weaponry in accord with its military

modernisation programme for the review and training of the Kharga Corps. The six-day-long

war games were enough to heighten tension and security concerns on the Pakistani border.

On May 14 and 15, Pakistani Army has violated ceasefire at the Indo-Pak border at leasttwice, killing one Indian Paramilitary soldier in an indiscriminate spate of firing. All these

factors combined have put military on both sides on highest alert.

There are four possible outcomes in this scenario. There is a high possibility that the tension

between the two nuclear-armed nations will fizzle out with time. The added security at the

The remote possibility of India launching a US-style attack

on Pakistan has heightened security concerns in the

border region increasing the likelihood of minor

skirmishes and ceasefire violations.

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border regions will reduce and the ceasefire will stay. In a second scenario, one can expect

minor skirmishes as seen on May 15, when the Pakistani side violated ceasefire and there

was an exchange of gunfire for 45 minutes.

The possibility of a full blown war with or without the use of nuclear arms is highly unlikely.

On On 14 May, around 250 Maoists attacked a construction site on National Highway 33,burning down 47 construction vehicles including trucks and dumpers and engaged the local

police in a firefight injuring one constable. This attack in Hazaribag, Jharkhand district

follows three coordinated attacks on 4 May, one of which had killed 11 security force

personnel in a 150-simultaneous-IEDs attack in Lohadarga. According to the officials of GR

Infraprojects, the company executing NH 33 construction project, the losses sustained were

between Rs 40-50 crore may have thrown the project off track for more than a year.

The attack is believed to be result of miscommunication between the insurgents and the

construction company over an extortion demand.

Over the years, Maoist insurgents have continued to target infrastructure companies more

often than any other business. In the first four months of 2011 alone, infrastructure

companies have suffered an estimated 100-120 crore loss through at least 14 incidents (see

Table 1) of attacks and violence by the Maoists in various parts of the country.

Infrastructure companies have always been one of the favorite targets of Maoist groups.

They are a common victim of extortion from the Maoists, who have been known to demand

anywhere up to 10% of the project revenues from these firms. Often being an outsider to a

particular locality, extorting construction businesses may require insurgents to use violence

more frequently as opposed to local businesses which they have already intimidated into

regular payments.

Maoists torched 47 construction vehicles amounting to a

loss of INR 40-50 crore; Infrastructure companies remain

favorite targets of the insurgents; Estimated INR 100-120

crore loss in first four months of 2011

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Maoist attacks on construction firms in 2011 (1 January – 15 May)

Feb 17: Over 30 heavily armed CPI-Maoist cadres raided a construction site of Gammon India, and set

ablaze one dumper truck and one road construction machine belonging to the company in Gaya District.

Feb 26: The CPI-Maoist attacked two construction companies after the firms failed to pay levy demanded

by the insurgents Kaimur District. The 60-member squad attacked the construction of a siphon-bridge of 

Durgawati Reservoir Project on Hundari hills, assaulted workers and forced them to stop work until the

contractor paid them 10 percent of the cost of the work.

Mar 1: The CPI-Maoist demolished government and school buildings in Jamui District, using stolen

construction vehicles.

Mar 4: Over 50 armed cadres of the CPI-Maoist attacked a private construction firm engaged in

construction of a bridge over river Gandak and set ablaze a tractor, two JCB machines, a pump set besides

a generator at Raghuvi village under Shivaipatti Police Station in Muzaffarpur District.

Apr 4: The cadres of the CPI -Maoist assaulted and injured five labourers and set ablaze two road

construction machines of a private firm at Kanaudha village in Aurangabad District.

Apr 16: Maoist cadres set ablaze a JCB machine, two generators, two mixture machines, two tractors,

one operating machine, along with more than half a dozen other machinery parts and motor spare partsof a road construction firm and assaulted the labourers employed in Surguja District.

Jan 15: The cadres of the CPI-Maoist attacked road construction workers in Lohardaga District.

West

Bengal

OrissaMaharashtra

Bihar

Jharkhand

Chhattisgarh

Andhra Pradesh

May 8: CPI (Maoist)

cadres set ablaze two

hydraulic excavators and atipper lorry engaged in

construction of roads in the

remote areas adjoining the

Andhra Pradesh-Chhattisgarh

border.

A

B

A

Feb 5: A group of cadres

of the CPI-Maoist

numbering about 30 to 40

came to the site of under-

construction Piperkhari

Gauritola Road in GondiaDistrict and set ablaze a road

roller.

D

D C

B

E

I

G

I

H

G

F

E

C

F

H

J K

LM

N

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Another factor at play is the tactical consideration of the Maoists to deny road access to the

government and security forces. Accordingly, disruption of transportation routes and their

construction is one of the more significant Maoist objectives.

On 13 May, Trinamool Congress (TC) successfully ended the 34-years-long rule of the

Communist Party of India (Marxist) [CPM] in West Bengal in a landslide victory. Result of a

combination of failed economic policies, rising Maoist violence and anti-incumbency factor,

the victory has larger political ramifications, in no small parts due to TC‟s alliance with the

current Congress-led Central Government. However, the victory may result in sharp

increase in violence in West Bengal at least in the short term.

Political violence has been a part and parcel of West Bengal‟s daily life for long. In fact, the

state has witnessed many bloody clashes between political supporters of opposing parties.

And post-poll violence is expected to be exceptionally high this time around. Many political

actors in the state are likely to interpret this change of guard in Kolkata as a license to

avenge old grievances against the CPM cadres who had dominated the political sphere in the

state for long. Since the announcement of election results, violent skirmishes have broken

out in several towns resulting in at least six deaths. Moreover, this trend is likely to worsen

Apr 1: Suspected cadres of the PLFI, a breakaway faction of the CPI-Maoist set ablaze two excavators and

a motorcycle of a construction company constructing a bridge over the Koel river at Jologhat, causing a

loss of about INR 10 million to the builder in Gumla District.

Apr 7: The cadres of the CPI-Maoist set ablaze a porcelain machine and five water pumps and looted two

mobile sets from workers at a bridge construction site in Gumla District.

Apr 24: A Maoists squad assaulted the employees of Patil Construction Company of Maharashtra, and

threatened them with dire consequences, if work continued at the extension of National Highway 75

from Padwa More in Palamu District to Murisemar in Garhwa District.

May 14: Maoists attacked a construction site on National Highway 33, burning down 47 construction

vehicles like trucks and dumpers and engaged police in a firefight injuring one constable.

Jan 21: The cadres of the CPI-Maoist attacked a camp of a construction firm involved in construction of 

remote rural road under PMGSY and set ablaze a porcelain machine in Ganjam District.

With regime change in West Bengal post-poll political

violence on the rise; Maoist activities may also escalate

J

K

L

M

N

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after 23 May when the unprecedented deployment of more than 800 central paramilitary

companies for election duty is likely to be withdrawn.

Given the change of government, Maoist insurgency is also expected to worsen in the state.

In the last two years, West Bengal has become on the worst-insurgency-affected states in

the country. In 2010, the state saw 425 Maoist-related deaths; highest in the country. The

worst Maoist-affected districts in the western parts of the state have been increasingly

coming under the Maoist control. At this juncture a shift in political leadership can spell

trouble for security forces‟ efforts to contain the spread of insurgency. 

It has been repeatedly alleged that some of the ground-level cadres of TC in Maoist-affected

districts have formed a loose alliance with the Maoists. If such allegations hold true, TC

arrival to power can mean that the Maoist can expect loosening of police pressure for some

time to come. Moreover, the insurgents have been involved in a year-long violent campaign

against CPI (M) where targeted assassinations and clashes have killed more than 150 CPI

(M) cadres. Since the CPM is no longer in power, one can expect the Maoists to increase

violence against CPM cadres to further their (Maoists) political vendetta.

Given all these factors at play, general violence in the state may increase in the coming

months with wide-spread skirmishes that may risk bystanders among other risks.

Dropbox, one of the world‟s most popular online storage services, has come under

investigation by the United States Federal Trade Commission for deceiving it‟s users about

its security. Pending the result of the investigation, much of sensitive data uploaded on

Dropbox by its 25 million users may be at risk of being accessed by governments, or

disgruntled Dropbox employees, or may even be at the risk of copyright infringement suit.

A security researcher has recently released a study to prove that cloud storage service‟sclaim that it encrypts all the data before storing it is false. The researcher, who spent a year

working at the FTC, alleges that Dropbox “has and continues to make deceptive statements

to consumers regarding the extent to which it protects and encrypts their data.” Dropbox

dismissed the allegations. “We believe this complaint is without merit,” company

Dropbox lied about its security: new complaint

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spokeswoman Julie Supan said. “Millions of people depend on our service every day and we

work hard to keep their data safe, secure, and private.”  

Dropbox is a cloud computing service which

works as a web-based file hosting service. It

enables a user to drop a file in a designated

folder on his or her computer which is synced

with the service‟s internet service.

Accordingly, the user can share the file with

other users or access it from any other

device from another terminal. Due to its ease

of use, Dropbox rose to popularity in the last

two years.

The concern for its safety rose from suspicion on Dropbox‟s claim that it encrypts all files

that are uploaded, which allows anyone to access or view the personal data of the user.

Considering that Dropbox service is used by many companies for business purposes, this

privacy is critical for the service‟s success. However, the new complaint claims that

Dropbox, in fact, has the capability to read user data. It uses to capability to identify same

files uploaded by different users so that it can “de-duplicate” those files, that is, keep only

one copy of the redundant files.

On 8 May, clashes broke out between residents of the villages of Bhatta and Parsaul and the

police, resulting in at least four deaths – two of policemen and two of the protesters.Agitation broke over land acquisition from these villages for the construction of ambitious

Yamuna Expressway that would connect Delhi suburbs of Greater Noida to Agra. It

escalated to skirmishes between police and protesters and quickly spread to Agra where

protesters burnt many government vehicles and blocked the roads. As of the now the

Farmer agitation in UP claim at least four lives;

politicization of the issue may suppress violence, increase

lawful disruption of services; Yamuna Expressway project

may be delayed

  Use online encryption services like

truecrypt or Crypo before uploading data

on the service

  Use online storage services which do not

hold key to data encryption like SpiderOak

or Wuala

How to protect your data from file hosting

services

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situation remains tense, with most protesters having gone underground and threatening to

renew the agitation.

However, since the protests temporarily subsided, the issue has become politicized with

political parties like Congress and BJP getting involved. Congress General Secretary Rahul

Gandhi made a highly-publicized trip to the conflict area and later claimed that the UP Police

had committed atrocities against the villagers to avenge the death of their colleagues. Since

then, many other politicians have joined the fray making it a head-on political battle

between Bahujan Samaj Party government of the UP state and Congress with an eye

towards the 2012 state Assembly Elections in UP.

The involvement of political parties in the conflict is likely to suppress the violence as the

leadership of protests is taken over by national-level politicians instead of local farmer

leaders. Moreover, the increased media focus is also likely to deter all parties involved from

falling back to outright violence. However, the issue still remains under contest. The

subsequent protests are therefore likely to involve mass rallies, picketing and general

disruption of services like transport routes in Western UP.

Unfortunately, the politicization of the issue is also likely to discourage UP Government from

finding a compromise with the villagers as it had done in 2008 when similar protests had

flared up in Ghori Bachera village. As long as all political parties remain committed to the

opposite sides of the issue, the tensions are likely to continue.

The Ministry of Home Affairs has called for a bid from global vendors to provide a Telephone

Call Interception System (TCIS). This deal, estimated to be around Rs 50 crore, will provide

sophisticated phone tapping technology to various police departments in the country for

counter-terrorism and law enforcement purposes.

TCIS is part of a greater Intelligence Bureau plan to modernise of Special Branches of the

State Police Departments. The system will be set up for each service provider who has been

licensed for the State to legally monitor the calls as and when required. The TCIS is needed

in 30 (thirty) locations all over India that is in each state/UT headquarter.

MHA calls tenders for communication interception

technology

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The system will ensure the monitoring of voice calls, SMSes, MMSes, GPRS and fax

communications on landlines and CDMA and GSM networks. Real-time monitoring of the

tapping being done by service providers will help the states to ensure that no illegal tapping

is being done based on any fake permission. The states can feed the details of the

intercepted conversations into a central monitoring system in the state capitals. The states

are not required to share information with each other, but the Central government might

look at the data to see that no illegal tapping is being done by any state.

Last week the Communist Party of India (Maoists) [CPI (M)] carried out a raid in Daupani

village of Gumla district of Jharkhand killing five men. Apparently the clash was motivated

by inter-factional rivalry between CPI (M) and another Maoist outfit active in the region – 

People‟s Liberation Front of India (PLFI). Last month, another Maoist faction, Tritaya Prastuti

Committee (TPC) had shot and killed a Reliance Power Executive, mistaking him for a

member of the rival faction.

Jharkhand continues to be hotbed for several Maoist factions involved in battle for control

amongst each other. While in states like Orissa, Chhattisgarh and Andhra Pradesh, only one

Maoist group – CPI (M) - remains dominant, Jharkhand has more than ten different active

insurgent groups. This situation has created additional risks for businesses operating in the

state as they face the risk of getting caught in the cross-fire as well as subject to multiple

operational demands.

In states like Orissa, where the principal insurgent group continues to dominate, Maoist

violence is very precise targeting only political and security personnel more often than

others. However, in Jharkhand the trend is reversed with private citizens becoming a bigger

target for groups looking to gain control over their rivals.

Some sources within Jharkhand Government have been reported admitting that the rival

factions of Maoists were initially encouraged by some individual government officials as a

counter-balance to the CPI (M). However, recent events have shown that the rival factions

Maoists gun down five of rival faction; risk of getting

caught in cross-fire remains high in Jharkhand;

investment into the state affected

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have become a security threat within themselves, making it much harder for the security

forces to establish peace in the region.

Meanwhile, the killing of the Reliance executive along with the general level of violence in

state has affected the incoming investment in Jharkhand. While the government has signed

more than 70 Memorandums of Understanding with various companies to invest in projects

in the state, actual presence of these companies remains scarce, largely due to concerns of 

law and order and safety. With rising violence by various Maoist factions, the investment

may steer clear for a long time to come.

TPC

PLFI

JPC

CPI-M

Map 1: Strongholds of major Maoist Groups in Jharkhand

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If the „war on terror‟ in Afghan soil wasn‟t going to deter you from travelling to Afghanistan,

violent demonstrations might. At least 11 people were killed and 40 others were injured

when protests against the killing of four Afghans in a NATO raid broke out across cities in

Afghanistan. Moreover, Prime Minister, Manmohan Singh‟s visit to Kabul to renew friendly

ties, might increase the targeted violence against Indians in Afghanistan.

The death of Osama bin Laden has heightened tensions in an already tense Yemen. In

addition to this, the agitation against the current establishment has increased in the form of 

violent protests. There are an estimated 14000 Indians in Yemen. It is advisable for the

Indians there to consider leaving the country until the situation stabilizes.

Even as King Hamad Khalifa called for a state of Emergency in Bahrain, set to end on June

1, the violent protests in Manama have only increased. Security around the capital city was

beefed and martial law was extended until the situation could be brought under control. The

King has requested for international intervention in the law and order situation in the

country. While, he has promised to keep foreign nationals safe, it is advisable not to travel

into the country if it can be avoided or delayed.

Travel Advisory: Afghanistan, Yemen & Bahrain

Afghanistan 

Yemen 

Bahrain 

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New Delhi Mumbai Bangalore1st Floor, Shangri-La’s -

Eros Corporate Plaza,

19 Ashoka Road,

Connaught Place,

New Delhi 110 001

T : 91-11 4373 4555

F : 91-11 4373 4488

103/104, 10th Floor,

Maker Chambar VI,

Nariman Point, Mumbai

- 400021

T : 91-22-43423313 33

F : 91-22-43423322

A-206, Admiralty

Square, #79, 6th Main,

13th Cross, HAL 2nd

Stage, Indiranagar,

Bangalore-38

T : 91-80-4125 4959

F : 91-80-4125 4958

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