2011 rcr 4g americas chris pearson final

8/4/2019 2011 RCR 4G Americas Chris Pearson FINAL

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Wireless Market Update: Innovations

and Spectrum Considerations

Chris Pearson President, 4G Americas

[email protected]

RCR Conference Series, Bellevue, WA, August 2, 2011

www.4gamericas.org



www.4gamericas.org

Agenda

About 4G Americas

Wireless Market Demands

Technology Update

Innovations in Wireless

Spectrum Policy Considerations

Final considerations

2



www.4gamericas.org

4G Americas Board of Governors4G Americas will promote, facilitate and advocate for the deployment and

adoption of the 3GPP family of mobile broadband technologiesthroughout the ecosystem – including networks, services, applications

and wirelessly connected devices – in the Americas.

About 4G Americas

3



www.4gamericas.org

4G Americas Liaison with Global OrganizationsAssociation of

Telecommunications Providers

of the Andean Region

Inter‐American

Telecommunication

Commission

International

Telecommunication Union

3rd Generation

Partnership Project

Colombian

Telecommunications

Research Center

Next Generation

Mobile Networks

Alliance

Chamber of Business

Telecommunications

Services

Ibero‐American Association of

Research Centers and

Telecommunication Enterprises

GSM

Association

About 4G Americas

4



www.4gamericas.org

Five Questions for the Audience

5

Will the significant demand on the mobile operators lead

to a spectrum crunch?

Will the U.S. be the world leader in mobile broadband?

Will LTE be the leading global technology?

Will new innovation resolve the network congestionissues?

Will the U.S. government have 300MHz of internationallyharmonized spectrum available to the industry?

In five years.....

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.



www.4gamericas.org

2. Lady Gaga was still called Stefani...

Five Years in Perspective

In 2006…..

6

1. The iPhone was still an exciting possibility....

3. You could get a 65‐inch Panasonic flat‐screen TV

for only $8,500!

4. Facebook had 12 million users...




www.4gamericas.org

Our Wireless World

*Informa Telecoms & Media, July 2011

Market Update

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2006 2011 0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2006 2011

Global Population

6.5 B

6.9 B

Global Cellular Subscriptions

2.5 B

5.5 B

6% Growth 120% Growth

7




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Growing Mobile Data Demand

Global mobile traffic will increase 26-fold between2010 and 2015 reaching 6.3 exabytes/month*

Mobile connected tablets will generate as muchtraffic in 2015 as the entire global mobile network

today*

There will be 788 million mobile-only internetusers by 2015* *(Cisco, VNI Mobile, Feb 2011)

Mobile Broadband Demand

8




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Smartphone Data Usage

Average

Smartphone User

0

100

200

300

400

500

2010 2011

Top 10% of

Smartphone UsersTop 1% of

Smartphone Users

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

2010 2011

Megabytes

Gigabytes

89%

1st Quarter Comparisons 2010-2011

109%

155%

Amount of data

consumed per month

Source: Nielsen, June 2011

Annual Growth

Annual

Growth

Annual

Growth

9




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Mobile Data Demand in the US

• AT&T’s mobile data traffic grew

8000% over the past 4 years

Source: AT&T, March 2011

Source: Coda Research Consultancy, 2010

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

822

54

130

215

327

Data traffic via mobile handsets

Petabytes per month

• More than half of US

handset shipments will be

smartphones by 2012Source: In‐Stat, January 2011

Mobile Broadband Demand

10




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The U.S. is a leader in Mobile Broadband

11

155

111

U.S. Japan

Mobile BB Subs2010E (millions)

100.5

28.5

U.S. China

2,015

1256

U.S. Japan

Smartphone Sales2011E (millions of units)

Application Downloads2010 (in millions)

The U.S. leads the w orldin mobile broadband

subscribers

Source OVUM, Mobile TechnologyForecast, June 2010

Source: Strategy Analytics, Global SmartphoneSales Forecast by Country, Jan 2011

Strategy Analytics, Feb 2011

The U.S. leadsthe world in

smartphone sales


application downloads

11




www.4gamericas.org

Technology Update



www.4gamericas.org 13Source: 4G Americas, Rysavy Research, 2011

Technology Update



www.4gamericas.org

HSPA, HSPA+ and LTE worldwide as of July 2011

HSPA HSPA+ LTE

First Deployment December 2005(USA) February 2009(Australia) December 2009(Norway/Sweden)

Commercial

Networks

409 Networks in

157 Countries

143 Networks in

74 Countries

25 Networks in

17 Countries

Latin American

Networks In

Service

64 Networks in 27

Countries

10 Networks in 5

countries

Trial networks in 10

countries

Global

Subscriptions752 Million

1.2 Million

(1.1 Million in USA)

14

Technology Update



www.4gamericas.org

3.8 Billion

75%

661 Million13%

1x EV‐DO

UMTS‐HSPA

Source: Informa Telecoms & Media, WCIS+ Subscription Forecast, 1Q 2011

529 Million

11%

LTE

Rev O/A/B

133 Million

1%

TD‐SCDMA

4.4 Billion Mobile Broadband Subscriptions in 2016

3GPP (UMTS‐HSPA‐LTE) = 88%

3GPP2 (EV‐DO) = 11%Other = 1%

WiMAX = >1%

Mobile Broadband 2016

15

Technology Update



www.4gamericas.org

Innovations



www.4gamericas.org

Wireless Traffic Will Continue Increasing Exponentially

Requiring Innovation and Progressive Spectrum Policy

• Based on Analysys Mason,wireless traffic will increase15-fold to almost 30 Exabytesper annum in 2016 due toadoption of data-centricdevices and the roll-out ofhigh-speed networks.

• In 2009 the total trafficcarried, including voice anddata, was 2 exabytes. This

will increase to almost 30exabytes by 2016, whichequates to a CAGR of 203%.

Petabytes of traffic per annum

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

2 0 0 9

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3

2 0 1 4

2 0 1 5

2 0 1 6

P e

t a b y t e s

o f t r a f f i c

Western Europe North America

Developed AP Central & Eastern Europe

Caribbean and Latam Emerging AP

Middle East/North Africa Sub-Saharan Africa

Source: Analysys Mason 2011

Petabytes of traffic per annum

17

Innovations



www.4gamericas.org

Innovations to help congestion issues

• Overlaid coverage from

macro, metro cells, picos

and femtos

• Sophisticated interference

management techniques

• WiFi offload

• While data traffic is

growing, signaling traffic is

outpacing the actual

mobile data traffic.

• Increased signaling traffic

due to growing demand for

always-on mobile

applications has resulted in

increased instances of

network congestion.

HeterogeneousNetworks

Optimizing SignalingTraffic Usage

18

Innovations

No Miracles Available!



www.4gamericas.org

Deployment of Service Layer Optimization Solutions

Incorporates Awareness of:

• Device capabilities such as screen size and resolution,

• User characteristics such as billing rates and user location,

• Network capabilities such as historic and instantaneous performance and

• Application characteristics such as the use of specific video codecs andprotocols by an application such as Video-on-Demand to ensure better

management of network resources

No MiraclesAvailable!

19

Innovations

Innovations to help congestion issues



www.4gamericas.org

Spectrum Policy

Considerations



www.4gamericas.org

Utilization Levels Globally are at Threshold Levels

7 2 %

6 6 % 7

0 %

5 8

% 6 5 %

5 4 %

6 3 %

7 9 %

5

9 % 6

3 %

6 4 %

7 5 %

5 6 %

6 3 %

8 0 %

5 6 %

6 6 %

6 3 %

7 5 %

6 2 % 6

5 %

7 4 %

6 3 %

5 5 %

7 0 %

5 1 %

7 0 %

6 5 %

7 8 %

6

0 %

7 3 %

6 8 %

8 5 %

6 7 %

6 9 % 7

2 %

6 5 %

7 5 %

7 7 %

8 5 %

6 8 % 7

1 %

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

North

America

Western

Europe

Central &

EasternEurope

Middle East

& Africa

Latin

America

Asia Pacific Global

24 months ago 12 months ago% Currently Threshold Utilization 12 months from now 24 months from now

Source: Credit Suisse, July 2011

Our survey shows global utilization levels are near threshold levels currently, highlighting upward bias to wireless equipment spending NT.

What is or might be the peak capacity utilization on your mobile network over time & how does that

compare to threshold utilization levels on your network?

Source: CS Survey Results1) Survey shows that mobile network utilization rates have already reached threshold utilization levels of 65% globally. In every region, we are seeing average peak

utilization rates of over 50% and at the global level, this currently is at 65%. In addition, respondents expect utilization rates to reach around 70% within the next 12

months. However, more importantly, current utilization levels of 65% are at threshold levels at which our respondents believe it could trigger incremental CAPEX spending.

This, in our view, is evidence of likely upward bias to spending on wireless equipment in the near term.

21

1




www.4gamericas.org22

155

111

U.S. Japan

Mobile BB Subs2010E (millions)

100.5

28.5

U.S. China

2,015

1256

U.S. Japan

Smartphone Sales2011E (millions of units)

Application Downloads2010 (in millions)

Source OVUM, Mobile TechnologyForecast, June 2010

Source: Strategy Analytics, Global SmartphoneSales Forecast by Country, Jan 2011

Strategy Analytics, Feb 2011


smartphone salesThe US could go from a leader to laggard

in 5 years without new spectrum!

Spectrum Crunch

22




www.4gamericas.org

Spectrum for Mobile Broadband

23

4G Americas Analyses Reviewed/Summarized: ITU M.2078 (2006)

NGMN Extrapolation of M.2078 (2007) FCC Broadband Plan/OBI Technical Paper No. 6 (2010)

Rysavy Research (2010)

Northwestern University (2010)

Take‐Aways

Demand is likely to outstrip supply in short order (as early as 2014‐15) under a business as usual approach.

There is no single panacea to addressing this gap.

Supplemental spectrum allocations are a critical part of addressing this gap.

White Paper available

for download at

www.4gamericas.org




www.4gamericas.org

Spectrum Animating Principles

o

Configure

Licenses

with

Wider

Bandwidthso Group Like Services Together

o Be Mindful of Global Standards

o Pursue Harmonized/Contiguous Spectrum Allocation

o Exhaust Exclusive Use Options Before Pursuing Shared Us

o

Not

All

Spectrum

is

Fungible

– Align

Allocation

with

Demand

24

Well considered spectrum allocations policies are imperative

Market oriented spectrum assignment approaches work and

should be favored

There is no time to lose – spectrum allocations take years to

effectuate




www.4gamericas.org

U.S. National Broadband Plan (NBP)

Searching for 500 MHz within 10 years

Summary of Fast Track Recommendations:

o 1675-1710 MHz. (NTIA recommends top 15 MHz be reallocated)

o 1755-1780 MHz. (This band is preferred by wireless industry. NTIA removed it from fast trackconsideration because there were too many agencies, sensitive issues, and uses requiring

redesign in the band to have completed the analysis by the October 1st fast track deadline).

o 3500-3650 MHz. NTIA recommends that 100 MHz of this band be made available for wireless

broadband. This is the band used for DOD tactical radars. Commercial use will be subject to

exclusion zones along coasts and near a number of DOD training sites inland.

o 4200-4220 and 4380-4400 MHz. NTIA recommends that the Administration consider

reallocating these 40 MHz. To do so will require international regulatory action, which will not

be completed before 2016. The bands are used for radio altimeters for aircraft safety.

25

300 MHz

Within 5 years

500 MHz

Within 10 years




www.4gamericas.org

Final Considerations



www.4gamericas.org 27

Will the significant demand on the mobile operators leadto a spectrum crunch? –YES!

Will the U.S. be the world leader in mobile broadband?MAYBE...but the U.S. needs more spectrum soon.

Will LTE be the leading global technology? NOIt will make great progress but HSPA/HSPA+ will still be the leader.

Will new innovation resolve the network congestionissues? Innovation will help, but is only a small part of the solution.

Will the U.S. government have 300MHz of internationallyharmonized spectrum available to the industry? Maybe. TheU.S. National Broadband Plan calls for 500 MHz in 10 years and 300 MHzwithin 5 years. The clock is ticking and much needs to be done.

In five years.....

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.



www.4gamericas.org

Chris PearsonPresident

4G Americas

[email protected]

www.4gamericas.org

Thank you!

2011 rcr 4g americas chris pearson final

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