2011 nebraska profile ninth edition
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State, 8 Regions, 93 Counties, plus 18 Cities – Three Volumes Demographic Change in the State Economic Influences at Work Housing Statistics and Trends Summary of Findings. 2011 NEBRASKA PROFILE Ninth Edition. Eight Regions and 93 Counties. Some people leaving Nebraska? - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
January 25, 20112011 Nebraska Profile 1
2011 NEBRASKA PROFILENinth Edition
State, 8 Regions, 93 Counties, plus 18 Cities – Three Volumes
Demographic Change in the State Economic Influences at Work Housing Statistics and Trends Summary of Findings
2011 Nebraska Profile January 25, 20112
Eight Regions and 93 Counties
2011 Nebraska Profile January 25, 20113
Demographics Some people leaving Nebraska? Significant migration
April 2000 – July 2009
2000 Census 1,711,263 Natural Increase 102,206 Net Migration -9,156 Residual -7,696July 1, 2009 Population 1,796,6192010 Census 1,826,341
Census Bureau Population EstimatesNatural Increase and Migration: 2000 – 2009
2011 Nebraska Profile January 25, 20114
Demographics 1910 – 2010 Decennial Census
Nebraska Population1910 - 2010 Decennial Census
1,192
1,296
1,3781,316 1,326
1,4111,483
1,570 1,578
1,711
1,826
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,400
1,500
1,600
1,700
1,800
1,900
1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010Decennial Census
Po
pu
lati
on
(1
,00
0s
)
2011 Nebraska Profile January 25, 20115
Demographics Population falling: 35-54 years old? Population increasing: 20-24 and 55-64?
Age 2000 Census 7/1/2009 Est. % ChangeUnder 20 504,336 507,731 0.7%20-24 120,331 140,703 16.9%25-34 223,273 232,221 4.0%35-54 489,588 473,803 -3.2%55-64 141,540 201,531 42.4%65 or Older 232,195 240,630 3.6%
Total 1,711,263 1,796,619 4.99%
Population Change by Age
2011 Nebraska Profile January 25, 20116
Demographics North declining? South decreasing too, more slowly? Urbanized counties growing fastest?
Region 2000 Census July 2004 Est July 2009 Est Change North 371,513 359,845 352,433 -19,080 South 423,839 420,135 417,211 -6,628 Urban 915,911 962,204 1,026,975 111,064 Nebraska 1,711,263 1,742,184 1,796,619 85,356
Regional Population Change2000 Census, 2004 and 2009 Population Estimates
2011 Nebraska Profile January 25, 20117
Demographics Census Bureau estimates by county
2011 Nebraska Profile January 25, 20118
DemographicsDepartment of Motor Vehicle (DMV) data indicate modest growth
Quarterly Net Migration In NebraskaDrawn From Driver's License Exchanges 2001 - 2010
888 902
1,750
1,539
35
1,6741,851
274743
-180-18
-605-359
543
1,3671,500
865
1,477
675
2,498
1,950
2,390
1,453
572 529
1,102
618892
1,1121,152
574
969
1,368
447
6251,082
1,466
2,250
-1,000
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
1st 3rd 1st 3rd 1st 3rd 1st 3rd 1st 3rd 1st 3rd 1st 3rd 1st 3rd 1st 3rd 1st
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Year and Quarter
Net
Dri
ver'
s L
icen
ses
2011 Nebraska Profile January 25, 20119
Demographics Positive change strong in working years
Age 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009First Half of 2010
14-25 362 646 223 523 1,138 1,841 1,00426-45 1,347 1,802 1,499 1,465 3,829 3,678 1,71646-65 649 476 532 437 912 1,422 72566+ 357 447 676 395 404 342 268
Missing -1 -1 -3 1 2 -3 3Total 2,714 3,370 2,927 2,821 6,285 7,280 3,716
Indicators of MigrationNebraska Department of Motor Vehicles – Net Exchanged
2011 Nebraska Profile January 25, 201110
Demographics Positive change in all regions Urban had largest increase
Region 2001 2007 2008 2009First Half of 2010
Total 2001-2010
North -318 28 757 1,073 722 2,753South -92 915 1,073 1,598 899 8,152Urban -724 1,886 4,463 4,621 2,098 27,199
Out of State -28 -8 -8 -12 -3 -133Total -1,162 2,821 6,285 7,280 3,716 37,971
Net of Exchanged & Surrendered LicensesNebraska Department of Motor Vehicles
2011 Nebraska Profile January 25, 201111
Demographics Net Exchanged Licenses 2001 – 6/2010
2011 Nebraska Profile January 25, 201112
Demographics
DMV data indicate people moved to Nebraska from Iowa, Colorado, Kansas and other states
State 1/2 of 2010
Iowa 1,719Colorado 1,111Kansas 951Texas 786California 775Missouri 626
Florida 616
All Other States 6,010
Total 12,594
Domestic Migration
2011 Nebraska Profile January 25, 201113
Economics Nebraska business establishments
Nebraska Business EstablishmentsCensus Data: 1986 – 2008
52,053
42,000
44,000
46,000
48,000
50,000
52,000
54,000
86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
Year
Bus
ines
s E
stab
lishm
ents
2011 Nebraska Profile January 25, 201114
Economics Employment growth softened in 2009
Nebraska Full- and Part-Time EmploymentBEA Data: 1969 – 2009
1,219,904
650,000
750,000
850,000
950,000
1,050,000
1,150,000
1,250,000
1,350,000
69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09
Year
Em
plo
ym
en
t: J
ob
s
2011 Nebraska Profile January 25, 201115
Economics High labor force participation rate
Nebraska vs. U.S. Labor Force Participation RatesBLS Data: 1998 – 2009
65.4
72.2
64.0
66.0
68.0
70.0
72.0
74.0
76.0
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
U.S. Nebraska
2011 Nebraska Profile January 25, 201116
Economics State unemployment rates still below national rates
Nebraska vs U.S. Unemployment Rates BEA Data: 1978 – 2009
9.3
2.9
4.6
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Un
emp
loym
ent
Rat
e
U.S. Unemployment Rate Nebraska Unemployment Rate
2011 Nebraska Profile January 25, 201117
Economics Nebraska 2010 unemployment edging lower
U.S. vs. Nebraska Unemployment RateMonthly BLS Data: 2007 – 2010
4.0%
9.8%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
Jan
Mar
May Ju
l
Sep No
v
Jan
Mar
May Ju
l
Sep No
v
Jan
Mar
May Ju
l
Sep No
v
Jan
Mar
May Ju
l
Sep No
v
2007 2008 2009 2010
Un
emp
loym
ent
Rat
e
Nebraska U.S.
2011 Nebraska Profile January 25, 201118
Economics Annual Unemployment Rate & Employment
State of Nebraska: 2000 – 2009
Nebraska Employment and Unemployment RateBLS Data: 2000 – 2009
938,080
4.62
900,000
910,000
920,000
930,000
940,000
950,000
960,000
970,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
5.00
Employment Unemployment Rate
2011 Nebraska Profile January 25, 201119
Economics Monthly Unemployment Rate & Employment
State of Nebraska: 2010Nebraska Employment and Unemployment Rate
BLS Data: Monthly 2010 Data
931,962
4.0
910,000
915,000
920,000
925,000
930,000
935,000
940,000
945,000
950,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
Year 2010
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
Employment Unemployment
2011 Nebraska Profile January 25, 201120
Economics Real earned income per job
Nebraska vs U.S. Real Earnings Per JobBEA Data: 1990 – 2009, Real 2009 Dollars
44,127
50,678
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
55,000
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
Year
Rea
l Avg
$ P
er J
ob
Nebraska USA
2011 Nebraska Profile January 25, 201121
Economics Nebraska per capita income at parity
Nebraska vs U.S. Real Per Capita IncomeBEA Data: 1990 – 2009, Real 2009 Dollars
39,277
39,626
25,000
28,000
31,000
34,000
37,000
40,000
43,000
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
Rea
l Per
Cap
ita
Inco
me
Nebraska USA
2011 Nebraska Profile January 25, 201122
Housing Housing production continued to fall
Total Dwelling Units Permitted in NebraskaCensus Data: 1980 – 2009
5,150
4,552
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Year
Per
mit
s Is
sued
Total Units Single Family Units
2011 Nebraska Profile January 25, 201123
Housing Regional housing production also fell
Total Dwelling Units Permitted in NebraskaCensus Data: 2000 – 2009
8,5897,830
5,908
933 828 741
6,940 6,355
7,452 8,241
6,364
5,089
3,977
1,232 1,015 1,147 1,417 1,561 1,307 1,153 1,099 706 732
809 770 792 713 597 551 441
01,000
2,0003,000
4,0005,0006,000
7,0008,000
9,00010,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Urban South North
2011 Nebraska Profile January 25, 201124
Housing Housing construction values softened
Value of Single-Family Construction 1980 – 2009
$148.90
70
90
110
130
150
170
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Year
Rea
l Val
ue,
$1,
000s
2011 Nebraska Profile January 25, 201125
HousingHousing stock increased statewide
Region 2000 Jul-09 % Change North 163,004 167,870 2.99 South 185,513 193,708 4.42 Urban 374,151 430,285 15.00 Nebraska 722,668 791,863 9.57
Housing Unit Change by Zone2000 Census and 2009 Housing Estimate
2011 Nebraska Profile January 25, 201126
Housing Average prices for single-family homes
slipped a little through fiscal 2009
* Nebraska Department of Revenue: Property Assessment Division
Zone 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 North 75,781 81,506 83,497 88,126 93,474 95,245 91,866 South 75,734 83,813 86,920 90,065 96,281 99,254 95,858 Urban 137,630 147,080 154,663 160,324 159,553 155,352 153,889 Nebraska 113,329 124,211 130,199 134,494 136,019 125,725 123,047
Average Sales Prices in PAD* DataSingle-Family Homes by Zone and Fiscal Year
2011 Nebraska Profile January 25, 201127
Housing Prices by county from PAD
2011 Nebraska Profile January 25, 201128
Housing Size of single-family homes sold rose
Average Square Foot Size of Homes Sold in Nebraska
PAD Database: Fiscal 1999-2009
1,5831,616
1,755
0
400
800
1,200
1,600
2,000
Before1930
1931-1960
1961-1970
1971-1980
1981-1990
1991-2000
2001-2009
Year Built
Ave
rag
e sq
ft
North South Urban
2011 Nebraska Profile January 25, 201129
Housing Single-family market value per square foot increased
Average Single-Family Prices Per Square FootPAD Database: Fiscal 1999-2009
39
6975
94
37
59
70 7580
95
67
9399 98
83
111
61
114
110
115
102
30
50
70
90
110
Before1930
1931-1960 1961-1970 1971-1980 1981-1990 1991-2000 2001-2009
Year Built
Ave
rag
e P
rice
per
sq
ft
North South Urban
2011 Nebraska Profile January 25, 201130
Housing Increased costs for newer homes
Average Prices of Homes Sold in NebraskaPAD Database: Fiscal 1999-2009
176,316184,742
201,976
0
25,000
50,000
75,000
100,000
125,000
150,000
175,000
200,000
225,000
Before1930
1931-1960
1961-1970
1971-1980
1981-1990
1991-2000
2001-2009
Av
era
ge
Pri
ce
North South Urban
2011 Nebraska Profile January 25, 201131
HousingNebraska Association of Realtors
2011 Nebraska Profile January 25, 201132
Housing Average home sale prices recovering?
Average Home Sales PricesAssociation of Realtors: 1998 - First Half of 2010
119,552
139,109146,066 146,088
150,683
111,442
131,867
154,041154,564 153,177
129,499
151,265
123,780
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Ave
rag
e N
om
inal
Pri
ce
Nebraska MLS
2011 Nebraska Profile January 25, 201133
Housing Housing price index stable
FHFA Housing Price IndexNebraska vs U.S. Quarterly: 2000 - 2010 Second Quarter: 1980 = 100
254.7
339.4
150
200
250
300
350
400
1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Pri
ce In
dex
Nebraska U.S.A.
2011 Nebraska Profile January 25, 201134
HousingYearly survey of Nebraska rental properties
Nebraska Survey of Rental PropertiesCompleted Surveys: 2002 – 2010
818
958
456
641
1,089
1,463
1,613
1,304
1,681
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Year
2011 Nebraska Profile January 25, 201135
Housing Number of units captured each year
Nebraska Survey of Rental PropertiesRental Units Survey: 2002 – 2010
81,153 82,251
91,557
97,97699,505
83,929
73,683
57,009
98,400
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
110,000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Year
2011 Nebraska Profile January 25, 201136
Housing Units captured per completed survey
Nebraska Survey of Rental PropertiesUnits Per Completed Survey
99.2
85.9
70.261.0
67.077.1
115.0125.0
59.2
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Year
2011 Nebraska Profile January 25, 201137
Housing Number of units captured each year
Nebraska Survey of Rental PropertiesRental Units Survey: 2002 - 2010
496
577608
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Year
North South Urban
2011 Nebraska Profile January 25, 201138
Housing Observed vacancy rates each year
Nebraska Survey of Rental PropertiesVacancy Rates: 2002 - 2010
6.9
5.0 5.0
6.7
5.86.16.1
6.66.6
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Year
2011 Nebraska Profile January 25, 201139
Housing Observed vacancy rates each year
Nebraska Survey of Rental PropertiesVacancy Rates Data: 2005 - 2010
7.2%
6.2%
4.3%
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
5.00%
6.00%
7.00%
8.00%
9.00%
10.00%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
North South Urban
2011 Nebraska Profile January 25, 201140
Housing Results from fall 2010 survey Statewide vacancy rate down
Srvys. Units 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 North 496 11,166 8.5 8.1 8.4 5.6 7.1 7.2 South 577 16,585 8.9 7.8 8.0 5.7 6.0 6.2 Urban 608 71,754 6.4 5.1 6.0 4.7 6.0 4.3 Nebraska 1,681 99,505 6.9 5.8 6.6 5.0 6.1 5.0
Nebraska Rental Vacancy SurveysVacancy Rates2010 Survey
Zone
2011 Nebraska Profile January 25, 201141
Housing Single Family and Apartment Rents
Single Family vs. Apartment Rent by YearState of Nebraska 2006-2010
641
670
620
591
644
582
527
625
605612
500
525
550
575
600
625
650
675
700
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Year
Ren
t ($
)
Single Family Units Apartments
2011 Nebraska Profile January 25, 201142
HousingApartment Rents by Bedrooms
Apartment Rent by Bedroom by YearState of Nebraska 2006 - 2010
536 524 537 550520
642 659 667 655620
765 782 769 783739
693
787
653
853
783
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Do
llars
One Bedroom Two Bedroom Three Bedroom Four Bedroom
2011 Nebraska Profile January 25, 201143
Summary of Findings
Population declining in rural areas Population growing in cities and east Nebraska unemployment very moderate Single-family production has stopped
falling, but MF fell nearly 64% between
2008 and 2009
2011 Nebraska Profile January 25, 201144
Summary of Findings
Rental vacancy rates are dropping again Homeowner prices beginning recovery Housing production markets have
insufficient production Demand for rentals on the rise, including
market rate rentals, particularly in urban
areas of Nebraska