2010 year-end press conference
TRANSCRIPT
Northern Virginia Association of Realtors®
Northern Virginia Association of Realtors® 2010 Year-End Press Conference
2010 Chairman of the Board
Northern Virginia Association of Realtors® 2010 Year-End Press Conference
$8,000 – First-time buyers $6,500 – Long-time buyers Economy Contributed – nearly $24 billion
Northern Virginia Association of Realtors® 2010 Year-End Press Conference
31,409(34%)
45,684(49%) 11,758
(12%)
4,459(5%)
Number of ClaimsHousing Act
Recovery Act
Assistance Act (First-time)Assistance Act (Long-time)
Total: 93,310
Source: GAO analysis of IRS data.
Northern Virginia Association of Realtors® 2010 Year-End Press Conference
Northern Virginia Association of Realtors® 2010 Year-End Press Conference
Northern Virginia Association of Realtors® 2010 Year-End Press Conference
Decline in Sales Volume in 3rd Quarter
Increased Inventory
Home Prices Stabilizing at New Levels
Smaller, Appropriately-Priced Homes Sell Quickly
Strong Market for Investors w/Cash
All-Cash Offers Accepted Over Financing
Northern Virginia Association of Realtors® 2010 Year-End Press Conference
1,604
1,229
1,567
1,260
0200400600800
1,0001,2001,4001,6001,800
Oct. 2009 Nov. 2009 Oct. 2010 Nov. 2010
Oct/Nov - 2009 vs. 2010
Northern Virginia Association of Realtors® 2010 Year-End Press Conference
Pending1,538
Sales1,534
0200400600800
10001200140016001800
Nov. 2009 Nov. 2010
Pending Homes vs. Home SalesMonth of November 2009 & 2010
Northern Virginia Association of Realtors® 2010 Year-End Press Conference
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
JAN '08 JAN '09 JAN '10
Northern Virginia Association of Realtors® 2010 Year-End Press Conference
$0 $100,000 $200,000 $300,000 $400,000 $500,000 $600,000
2010
2009
2008
2007
Nov. 2007 to Nov. 2010
Northern Virginia Association of Realtors® 2010 Year-End Press Conference
Nov. 2010 – 63 daysNov. 2009 – 50 days
Northern Virginia Association of Realtors® 2010 Year-End Press Conference
5.1 5 5.24.9 5 4.9
4.4 4.5 4.7 4.8 4.9 5.1 5.2 5.4 5.5 5.7
2.73.3 3.5 3.5 3.7 3.5
2.8 2.8 2.9 3 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.7 3.8 4
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
MBA Mortgage Finance ForecastNovember 24, 2010
30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage % 10-Year Treasury Yield %
2009 2010 2011 2012
Source: Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA)
Northern Virginia Association of Realtors® 2010 Year-End Press Conference
Source: Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA)
Virginia Mortgage Loans in Foreclosure
0
2,500
5,000
7,500
10,000
12,500
15,000
2006
-220
06-320
06-420
07-120
07-220
07-320
07-420
08-120
08-220
08-320
08-420
09-120
09-220
09-320
09-420
10-120
10-220
10-320
10-420
11-120
11-220
11-320
11-420
12-120
12-220
12-320
12-4
Prime & Govt.Fixed Rate
Prime & Govt. ARM
Subprime
High and Low Scenarios
Northern Virginia Association of Realtors® 2010 Year-End Press Conference
Metro area added 43,700 new jobs
Northern VA rate: >/= 5% for each jurisdiction Arlington rate: 3.9%
National rate: 9.8 % Virginia rate: 6.8 %
Northern Virginia Association of Realtors® 2010 Year-End Press Conference
Easy access to global markets
Excellent quality of life
Northern Virginia Association of Realtors® 2010 Year-End Press Conference
Northern Virginia Association of Realtors® 2010 Year-End Press Conference
A new normal Consumer uncertainty No sense of buyer urgency
Northern Virginia Association of Realtors® 2010 Year-End Press Conference
Expect 2011 to look like 2010 All real estate is local,
sometimes hyper-local Sustainable lending practices Average and median prices rise modestly
Northern Virginia Association of Realtors® 2010 Year-End Press Conference
Oct. – 77 Home Sales < $900,000 3 - $2,500,000 – 4,999,999 1 - $5,000,000 & Over
Nov. – 80 Home Sales < $900,000 3 - $2,500,000 - $4,999,999
Northern Virginia Association of Realtors® 2010 Year-End Press Conference
Loudon County, VA $110,643Fairfax County, VA $106,785Howard County, MD $101,710City of Fairfax, VA $98,133Arlington County, VA $96,390Montgomery County, MD $93,999Stafford County, VA $89,536Calvert County, MD $89,049Prince Williams, VA $88,675Charles County, VA $86,586City of Alexandria, VA $85,135
Northern Virginia Association of Realtors® 2010 Year-End Press Conference
Northern Virginia Association of Realtors® 2010 Year-End Press Conference
Northern Virginia Association of Realtors® 2010 Year-End Press Conference
Spring Forecast – March 24 Economic Summit – September 15
Northern Virginia Association of Realtors® 2010 Year-End Press Conference
For more information, visit NVAR.comor contact NVAR at 703.207.3200