2010 primary season recap
DESCRIPTION
2010 Primary Season Recap. An HEG Presentation www.hegllc.org. Overview. The 2010 Primary election was a high profile election that featured several current or former elected officials running for a different office - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
2010 Primary Season 2010 Primary Season RecapRecap
An HEG Presentationwww.hegllc.org
OverviewOverview
The 2010 Primary election was a high profile election that featured several current or former elected officials running for a different office
The Gubernatorial Campaign featured a total of 14 candidates, 7 for each party
Due to the similarities in experience and number of candidates on both sides, this Primary can be viewed as a solid predictor of the General Election, all things equal
July 20July 20thth Gubernatorial Election Gubernatorial Election1,075,966 ballots were cast in the
Gubernatorial campaigns across parties680,499 or 63.2% of these ballots were
Republican395,467 or 36.8% of these ballots were
DemocratDemocratic performance was 58.1% that
of Republican
July 20July 20thth Senate Election Senate Election910,683 persons voted in the election for
the US Senate. 558,298 or 61.3% voted on the
Republican ballot 352,385 or 38.7% voted on the Democrat
ballotDemocratic performance was 63.1% that
of Republicans
August 10August 10thth Primary Runoff Primary Runoff
There were four statewide offices with a Primary Runoff on the Republican ballot (Governor, Attorney General, Insurance Commissioner and Public Service Commissioner) and one on the Democratic ballot
August 10August 10thth Primary Runoff- Notes Primary Runoff- NotesEvery Republican statewide office in the
Runoff had a higher turnout than any Democratic statewide race in the Primary.
679,471 votes were cast in the two statewide elections with the highest turnout (Republican Governor and Democratic SOS)
85.1% of the turnout voted in the Republican Primary, 14.9% in the Democratic
The FulcrumThe Fulcrum The table below looks at the Primary
turnout in the 13 counties with 50,000 or more African Americans (2000 Census)
County Republican Ballots Democratic Ballots Difference (R to D) RegionCobb 60529 23164 37365 Metro AtlantaClayton 4775 19343 -14568DeKalb 23513 59076 -35563Fulton 42407 53944 -11537Gwinnett 60278 17479 42799Bibb 9423 10318 -895 Middle GeorgiaBaldwin 2072 2667 -595Dougherty 3686 8946 -5260Hancock 70 2222 -2152Lowndes 5154 2946 2208Chatham 16725 11342 5383 CoastalRichmond 6852 7798 -946Muscogee 6125 6993 -868 SouthernTotal 241609 226238 15371
The Fulcrum Primary RunoffThe Fulcrum Primary Runoff The table below looks at the Primary
Runoff turnout in the 13 counties with 50,000 or more African Americans (2000 Census)
County Republican Ballots Democratic Ballots Difference (R to D) RegionCobb 54898 4157 50741Clayton 4021 5109 -1088DeKalb 20721 14215 6506Fulton 40460 16841 23619Gwinnett 55270 3119 52151Bibb 6631 2312 4319Baldwin 1653 654 999Dougherty 2606 2639 -33Hancock 61 1345 -1284Lowndes 4488 711 3777Chatham 11305 2664 8641 CoastalRichmond 6638 2200 4438Muscogee 5136 2283 2853 SouthernTotal 213888 58249 155639
Metro Atlanta
Middle Georgia
ObservationsObservationsMore Republican ballots were cast than
Democratic ones in these key counties in both elections
These counties only represented 35.5% of the Republican ballots cast in the Primary while they represented more than half (57.2%) of all the Democratic ballots cast.
These counties represented 36.9% of Republican ballots in the runoff, while they again represented more than half (57.85%) of all Democratic ballots.
ConclusionsConclusionsGiven the politically polarized
environment and the various partisan approaches, there will be only a few swing voters
The races therefore will focus simply on turnout. Given both the Primary and the Primary Runoff numbers, Republican candidates will be heavily favored to win every statewide election.
RecommendationsRecommendations
TurnoutGwinnett County will be a key in the
election (http://www.ajc.com/news/georgia-politics-elections/deal-handel-battle-till-
589315.html)
Democrats must increase turnout in the targeted counties. Key task: Turnout
Republicans must maintain the relative performance in the key counties. Key task: Suppression
CitationsCitationsPrimary Election Turnout (overall and by county):
http://sos.georgia.gov/elections/election_results/
Population Data: http://factfinder.census.gov/servlet/GCTTable?_bm=n&_lang=en&mt_name=DEC_2000_PL_U_GCTPL_ST2&format=ST-2&_box_head_nbr=GCT-PL&ds_name=DEC_2000_PL_U&geo_id=04000US13