2006 christmas sales in major overseas markets and retail outlook for 2007
DESCRIPTION
2006 Christmas Sales in Major Overseas Markets and Retail Outlook for 2007. Research Department 28 December 2006. 2006 Christmas Sales in Major Overseas Markets. 1. US – Retailers to Post 4-5% Growth. Basic Positive Factors. Fairly solid expansion helped by last-minute flurry. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
2006 Christmas Sales in Major Overseas Markets
and Retail Outlook for 2007
Research Department28 December 2006
2006 Christmas Sales
in Major Overseas Markets
1
US – Retailers to Post4-5% Growth
Fairly solid expansion helped by last-minute flurry
Basic Positive Factors
Other Positive Factors
• Longer Thanksgiving-to-Christmas• A full weekend of last-minute purchases• An influx of tourists
• Low joblessness• Steady income growth• Respite of oil prices• Windfalls from stock market
2
US – Battlefield between Shoppers and
RetailersEven more aggressive discounts and promotions
Negative Factors
Retailer Strategies • Early implementation of promotions
• Deeper discounts
• Issuance of gift certificates
• Prevailing economic slowdown
• Slackening housing market
• Still-high fuel costs
• Selected and procrastinated purchases
3
US – Polarisation of Market
Better performance of value-for-money merchandise
E-tailers • Low prices• Free delivery
• Still-strong showing due to continued spending spree of high-income consumers
High-end stores
Discounters and mass
merchandisers
• Caution remained the buzzword• Sustained popularity of mass
merchandisers and discounters
4
US – Demand Pattern Similar to Last Year’s
Consumer electronics remained hot sellersConsumer electronics
• Video game consoles – Wii & PS3• TMX Elmo• Certain dolls and licensed toys – Barbie, Bratz & Dora the Explorer• Educational toys, robots, trucks & cars, children’s MP3 players
• Flat-panel TVs• Handheld digital audio players• DVD players, digital cameras, mobile
phones, notebooks
Luxuries
Clothing
Toys
• High-end apparel• Fine jewellery• Higher-priced watches
• Sales affected by warm winter
5
Europe – Generally Firmer Festive
SpendingBetter sales recorded for the major markets
amid moderate economic expansion
MajorDevelopments
MajorConcerns
• Heavy emphasis on low prices and store promotions
• Surge in online sales
• Growing popularity of gift certificates
• Better sales for luxuries in some markets
• Still-high unemployment
• Still-high oil prices
• Higher interest rates
• Shoppers to buy abroad
6
Germany – Sales to Increase by 2%
Spending in advance of a 3-point VAT hike
Consumerelectronics
Clothing • Sales dragged down by mild temperatures
• Flat-screen TVs, DVD players, digital music players, digital cameras, GPS navigation systems
Toys • Video games, educational toys, board games, model trains, plush toys, doll sets
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Other gifts • Jewellery and watches
France and Italy – Higher Sales Than Last
Year Especially in FranceBetter mood to spend during this holiday season
ItalyFrance
• Consumer electronics• Video games• Clothing
• Consumer electronics• Video games• Jewellery and timepie
ces
8
UK – Sales to Increase 3-4%
Low unemployment and firming house prices to support spending
Toys
Electronic gadgets
Clothing
Other favoured gifts
• Video games, educational toys, classic toys
• Flat-panel TVs• Digital music players• Mobile phones• Home cinema products• Lap top computers
• Sales boosted by deep discounts
• Jewellery and watches9
Japan – Consumers More Willing to Spend
Confidence spurred by rising winter bonuses and better job prospects
• Demand hampered by warm weather
• Flat-screen TVs and digital music players much sought after
• Video games a popular buy
Clothing
Consumer electronics
Toys
Jewellery and watches • Sales facilitated by appetite for luxuries
10
Chinese Mainland – Encouraging Year-end
SalesRetail sales remained strong despite tightening
measures
Contributing factors Favoured gift items• Economic fundamentals
remained sound• Appreciation of RMB• Growing popularity of
Christmas• Increasing Christmas
sales promotions
• Most consumer products including consumer electronics, toys, garments, timepieces and jewellery
11
utlook for 2007
12
US – Consumer Spending to Cool
SlightlyEconomy to ease back into a lower gear
• Consumers to remain prudent
• Sustained consolidation of housing market
• Sustained popularity of mass merchandisers and discounters
• But higher-income consumers to continue spending spree
• Hong Kong exporters to adjust their product strategies
13
EU – Consumption to Remain Stable
More moderate pace of economic expansion
• Fiscal deficit reduction
• Consumers to remain conservative
• Rising interest rates
• Value-for-money preferred but quality still sought after
• Strong euro facilitating imports
14
EU – Varied Performances
Varied prospects for different markets
Germany
Italy
UK
• Slowing exports• VAT rise for 2007
• Slowing exports• Deficit reduction measures
• Relatively low joblessness• Favourable housing market
15
France • Sustained job creation and income growth
Japan – Consumer Spending to Expand
SteadilyContinued but tepid economic revival
• Moderating exports
• An end to zero-interest-rate policy and expected tightening of fiscal policy
• Sustained improvement in labour market and wages
• Adherence to value-for-money but growing demand for higher-end products
• Stable yen facilitating imports
16
Chinese Mainland – Healthy Spending to
Take HoldIncreased consumer spending a priority for 2007
• Government policies such as introduction of minimum wages, salary reform for civil servants, expansion of rural consumption and increases in welfare expenditure
• CEPA III to provide sales opportunities
• Shift in consumption on sophisticated consumer goods
• Increasing mainland customers to shop in Hong Kong
• Rapid urbanisation and growth of middle class
17
Hong Kong’s Exports Expected to Grow 6%
in 2007Projected 2007
Growth (%)
Value Real
Total Exports +6.0 +8.0
Domestic Exports -10.0 -7.0
Re-exports +6.5 +8.0
Imports +8.0 +7.5
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Have a Prosperous 2007!
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