2000-2009 boston condo market trends report

8/14/2019 2000-2009 Boston Condo Market Trends Report

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CHARLESGATEREALTYGROUP

BOSTON

CONDO

MARKET2009

YEAR ENDREPORTA DECADE IN REVIEW


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bostoN CoNDo mARkEt | foRWARD

Dear Reader,

tan y r ain e ie review r bn Cnd mare Repr.When Charlesgate Realty Grop was fonded almost 7 years ago we denede llwin a r viin:

To be the pacesetter within the real estate industry, and within ourcommunity, by empowering consumers to make smart decisions

through education, local expert knowledge, and innovative service.

I thoroghly believe this report eemplies that vision of edcation, epertise,and innovation. Simply pt - this is the most comprehensive market reportever created for the Boston marketplace. All the credit goes to my bsinesspartner, Michael DiMella, who worked tirelessly ptting this together. Leverag-ing his real estate eperience, edcational backgrond in economics, and on-going leadership in or local, state, and national Realtor associations, no oneis more qalied to pt a report of this depth together. Whether a consmer inthe Boston market or an indstry professional, we will all benet greatly fromthis report. On top of Michaels ecellent work I also want to thank Tara Peter-son, or Marketing and Graphic Design Associate, for all of her great designwork in making the presentation coincide with the caliber of the data therein.

We sincerely hope that anyone who reads this report walks away feeling notonly more informed, bt more condent to enter this marketplace, whether itbe as byer, a seller, or an interested observer. We wish all of or clients, col-leae, and riend all e e in 2010 and eynd.

Sincerely,

P.T. VinebrghFonding Partner


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table of contents

PART ONE: CITYWIDE MARKETCitywide Market pg. 005

PART TWO: DOWNTOWN MARKET

Downtown Market pg. 011

PART THREE: LUXURY MARKETLuxury Market pg. 017

PART FOUR:THE NEIGHBORHOODSpg. 023 State of the Neighborhoodspg. 025 In This Sectionpg. 026Alln

pg. 028 Back Baypg. 032 Beacon Hillpg. 036 brinpg. 038 Charlestownpg. 042 Dorchesterpg. 044 Ea bnpg. 046 Fenwaypg. 050 Hyde Parkpg. 052 Jamaica Plainpg. 055 Leather Districtpg. 059 maapanpg. 061 Midtown

pg. 065 North Endpg. 069 Rlindalepg. 071 Rxrypg. 073 Seaportpg. 077 South Bostonpg. 081 South Endpg. 085 Waterfrontpg. 089 West Endpg. 093 We Rxry

PART FIVE: ABOUT THIS REPORTpg. 096About /Contact Informationpg. 097 spread te Wrd
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004bostoN CoNDo mARkEt | INtRoDuCtIoN

For years Ive sccessflly avoided writing an annal report on the Boston condomarket. Its been something Ive meant to do every year, bt maybe I was scaredoff by the time commitment, the difclty in accessing and preparing all the salesdata, or creating a way to present the information in an easily to nderstand man-ner. Bt sing the end of the decade as my impets, Ive nally broght myselfto completing the report. And Im glad I did. I think yoll nd valable informationinside - a very thorogh review of the Boston condo market from 2000 to 2009.

WHY WRITE THIS?There was no comprehensive sorce of information on the Boston city market.Sre, yoll see headlines in the newspapers or on TV abot the Boston real es-tate market bt, almost always, the reports dont actally refer to the Boston citymarket. From the headlines (and even the content of the stories), it is hard to tellwa are r are een i really ein repred n. seie, bnreal estate prices refer to the Greater Boston area single family prices; other timesBoston real estate market refers to prices, or maybe to the nmber of sales.Then yo have to nd what the prices or sales are compared to. The previosmonth? The previos year? Important facts that are often times not clear.

Or, for eample, take the widely regarded Case-Schiller price inde (a brilliantmethodology for measring prices, by the way). Yoll see reports on it showingBoston prices are p or down. Yet the inde measres prices of single familyhomes over a geographic area from Cape Cod all the way into New Hampshire. Agreat regional indicator for sre, bt hardly representative of the Boston city marketin location or in type of sales - 67% of the Boston city market is condo sales (17%is single family, and 16% is mltifamily). Thats why I se condo sales in this report ey are re repreenaive e are in bn in neird(thogh I may add single family and mlti-family spplements in the ftre).

Even given the fact that many neighborhoods follow citywide trends, one thing

that stands ot and is a contined point of emphasis for me, is how mch variationthere is from neighborhood to neighborhood. With average neighborhood pricesin 2009 ranging from $100,000 to over $1,000,000, Boston is very mch a city ofniqe neighborhood markets - theres really no sch thing as the Boston realestate market as this report shows.

Thats a longwinded way of writing that I am trying to show the Boston city marketand its component segments in a clear, informative way with this report. It onlycontains condo sales data from Boston and shows market information over a longenogh period of time to bild some contet arond the point-in time monthlydaa a ally e repred.

SOURCE DATAThe data sed for this analysis comes from or two mltiple listing services in Bos-ton - Listing Information Network (LINK), which compiles fll sales data for the coreneighborhoods of Boston from both real estate broker assisted sales and pblicrecord closings and MLSpin, the statewide mltiple listing service covering most ofMassachsetts.

While Ive made every effort to ensre the accracy of the data presented here, Iwa wrin wi nearly 82,000 rw ale daa r e pa 10 year r wdifferent mltiple listing services. As mch as I hate to admit it, whether from thesorce data itself or from my own calclations, there is possibly an error or two inwhat follows. What I am saying is dont take this report as gospel and dont se itas the sole basis for any decisions yo make. For that matter, dont take any sta-tistics or market news as the nal trth. Rely on yor own eyes and ears, and get

epert local advice when needed.

AREAS COVEREDCitywide Sales in all Boston neighborhoods are inclded in the Citywide

section.Luxury Only sales with a sale price of $1,000,000 or above are inclded forLry market analysis.

Downtown Sales in the Back Bay, Beacon Hill, Fenway, Midtown, North End,Soth End, West End, and Waterfront neighborhoods are inclded in theDowntown section.

Neighborhoods Each neighborhood in Boston gets its own individal section aswell.

ENJOY!I hope yo nd this information as valable as I do and that it helps yo nderstandthe Boston market better! My plan is to pdate it every 6 months with the most re-cent sales data to contine to provide relevant, timely data. Yo can also get moreconsistent pdates on the market by sbscribing to my Boston real estate blog at:http://blog.charlesgaterealty.com.

And dont forget to share this report with friends jst se the links at the bottomof every page to instantly share by email or on Facebook, LinkedIn, and Twitter!Enjoy the report!

Michael DiMellafe 10, 2010


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PART ONE:

CITYWIDEMARKET

in this section:

Citywide Market

005


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006bostoN CoNDo mARkEt | CITYWIDE

This citywide section eamines sales in all Boston neighborhoods. Following,

yoll nd for pages of key market information. The rst two pages look at themarket dynamics over time (both the decade and the last three years), whilee la w pae w 2009 in re deail wi a readwn e are ybedrooms and by sqare footage before diving into discont rates and condo feeanalysis. The sorce of this data is both LINK and MLSpin.

THE IRST PAGE of this section displays the pricing indicators and other key mar-ket indicators on a grid for the past 3 years and at the beginning of the decade.Graphs of average pricing and total market volme show changes over time forpricing and the total condo market size for the entire city.

PAGE TWO offers three comparisons showing market changes over time. For each,ere i a 10 year rap win annal daa ave and a deeper l a e pa3 years with qarterly nmbers displayed directly below. The rst graph showsaverage prices. The second graph shows the nmber of sales. The third graphshows average discont (which is the light ble colmn measred on the left ais)and average days on market (the dark ble line measred on the right ais).

PAGE THREE diplay ale daa r 2009, ren dwn in edr eenin e p rid and in qare ae een in e rid. ti i acloser look at how the market is performing by size and by bedroom segments andhow those segments contribte to the overall market stats.

PAGE OUR offers a qick comparison of all the Boston neighborhoods based on2009 sales data. The pper left graph displays nmber of sales for each neighbor-hood, ranked largest to smallest. The bottom left graph shows average price persqare foot for each neighborhood. On the right side of the page, the top graphshows average price by neighborhood and the bottom graph shows average dis-cont rate by neighborhood.

Of corse, I am always happy to answer any qestions yo may have:[email protected]

INThISSECTION:ThECITywIDEMARKET
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2009 brought signicant change to the citywideBoston condo market. The nancial meltdown o

late 2008 led to a sharp drop in Boston market ac-tivity through much o 2009. Ater the meltdown,the previously steady downtown and luxury

segments o the market severely constricted interms o number o sales, especially in Q1 and Q2

2009. Without those sales (and correspondingabove average sale prices) buoying the citywideprice indicators (average price, average price persquare oot, and median price), they all dropped

substantially in 2009.

Citywide median prices ell 7.9% while the number o sales declined 10.8%. With salesand prices down, total market volume (a measure o the size o the market in terms o

total dollar value o all properties sold), ell over 25% citywide.

Market indicators (average days on market and discount rom list price) were also weaker

in 2009. Average days on market was up rom 99 in 2008 to 111 in 2009, and averagediscount was up to 3.7% rom 2.9% in 2008. Both o those indicators weakened over thepast 4 years.

As you can see in the charts, the substantial weakness in 2009 meant prices have clearlyreceded rom their peak, but over the decade citywide median prices settled at a modest

24% gain (and many o the individual neighborhoods substantially outperormed thatwith 17 o 22 neighborhoods seeing median price increases o over 25%). This sectioncontains the citywide data in whole plus some neighborhood comparison data or 2009

to show the relative diferences in the neighborhood markets, but the neighborhood sec-tions will have much more individual detail.
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PART TwO:

DOWNTOWNMARKET

in this section:

Downtown Market Overview(CombinedBack Bay, Beacon Hill, Fenway, Midtown,

North End, South End, West End, and Waterfront)

011


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012bostoN CoNDo mARkEt | DoWNtoWN

The downtown market is made p of the Back Bay, Beacon Hill, Fenway, Midtown,Nr End, s End, Waerrn, and We End neird.

In this section, yoll nd for pages of key market information. The rst twopages look at the market dynamics over time (both the decade and the last threeyears), while the last two pages show 2009 in more detail with a breakdown of themarket by bedrooms and by sqare footage before getting into discont rates andcondo fees analysis. The main sorce of data for this section is LINK.

THE IRST PAGE will display the average pricing and key market indicators on a gridfor the past 3 years and at the beginning of the decade. Graphs of average pric-ing and total market volme will show changes over time for pricing and the total

market size downtown.PAGE TWO offers three comparison graphs showing market changes over time.For each graph there is a 10 year graph showing annal data and a closer look atthe past 3 years with qarterly nmbers displayed directly below. The rst graphshows average prices. The second graph shows average price per sqare foot(the light ble line measred on the left ais) and the nmber of sales (dark blecolmns measred on the right ais). The third graph shows average discont(both from original list price and from nal list price after all price redctions aretaken) which are the medim and light ble colmns measred on the left ais, andaverae day n are, e dar le line eared n e ri axi.

PAGE THREE diplay ale daa r 2009, ren dwn in edr e-en in e p rid and in qare ae een in e rid. ti ia closer look at how the market is performing in different segments and how thoseeen ay dier r e verall are a.

PAGE OUR al e 2009 ale daa.

The pper left graph displays discont rates (from original price and from nal listprice after redctions) shown in the dark ble and medim ble colmns measredon the left ais for every 30 days of market time. This indicates what percentagewas typically negotiated off the list price as days on market increases. The light

ble line (measred on the right ais) shows the percentage of condos that soldwiin a day n are een.

The bottom left graph is very similar to the one above it, ecept it shows pricerane een raer an day n are een.

On the right side of the page, the top graph shows average condo fee by pricerange and the bottom graph displays the average condo fee for fll servicebildings (typically newer constrction with concierge level services) compared tosmaller (typically brownstone type) bildings for a given neighborhood.

Of corse, I am always happy to answer any qestions yo may have:

[email protected]

INThISSECTION:ThEDOwNTOwNMARKET


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cially at the Mandarin Oriental in the Back Bay, which had 47 closings itsel in Septem-ber and October o 2008 at an average price o $4.6M most o the units were presold

prior to completion and thereore had virtually simultaneous closing when the buildingopened or occupancy).

Median prices in 2009 were up slightly rom 2007 although total market volume is downdue to the number o sales continuing to decline. Market indicators - days on market and

discount rate have been up since 2004 clearly showing the downtown market condi-tions weaken even as prices stayed mostly stable even into the economic downturn.

The Downtown market segment has been the(mostly) stable core o the Boston market. While

the number o sales annually has allen every yearsince 2004, prices have remained remarkably re-silient, with the median price downtown up 57%

since the beginning o the decade. Comparedto 2008, the 2009 average price ell, but thats a

bit misleading because 2008 average prices weredriven articially higher by an abnormally largenumber o downtown super luxury sales (espe-


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PART ThREE:

LUXURYMARKET

in this section:

Luxury Market(Sales of $1,000,000 and above)

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018bostoN CoNDo mARkEt | LuxuRY

The lry market consists of only $1,000,000 and above condo sales from anyneighborhood in the city.

In this section, yoll nd three pages of key market information. The rst twopages look at the market dynamics over time (both the decade and the last threeyears), while the last page shows other key market information, inclding the per-centage of $1M+ sales and $1000+ per sqare foot sales compared to the entirecitywide market. The main sorce for this data is LINK.

THE IRST PAGE displays the pricing indicators and other key market indicators ona grid for the past 3 years and at the beginning of the decade. Graphs of averagepricing and total market volme show changes over time for pricing and the totalmarket size in the lry market.

PAGE TWO offers three comparisons showing market changes over time. For each,ere i a 10 year rap win annal daa ave and a deeper l a e pa3 years with qarterly nmbers displayed directly below. The rst graph showsaverage prices. The second graph shows average price per sqare foot (the lightble line measred on the left ais) and the nmber of sales (dark ble colmnsmeasred on the right ais). The third graph shows average discont (both fromoriginal list price and from nal list price after all price redctions are taken) whichare the medim and light ble colmns measred on the left ais, and averageday n are, e dar le line eared n e ri axi.

PAGE THREE diplay a ner inerein rap.

The pper left graph displays the annal nmber of $1M+ sales in the ble col-mns along with the percentage of the entire citywide market (shown on the lightble line) that those sales make p over the corse of the decade.

The bottom left graph is very similar to the one above it, ecept it shows 3 years ofqarterly data rather than decade long annal data above.

On the right side of the page, the top graph displays the annal nmber of $1000+per sqare foot sales in the ble colmns along with the percentage of the lry

market market (shown on the light ble line) that those sales made p over thecorse of the decade.

Of corse, I am always happy to answer any qestions yo may have:

[email protected]

INThISSECTION:ThEluxuRyMARKET
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this shows that luxury condos are getting slightly smaller in average size. While pricinghas remained stable (other than the obvious decrease from 2008 to 2009), consider-able weakness can be seen in 2009 in the number of sales, days on market, and dis-count rates all worse than the past few years. With the abundance of new develop-ment condos priced in the $1M+ price range currently available, it will be interesting tosee if pricing holds steady if there is continued weakness in this segment.

Over the decade, the median price for theluxury market has remained fairly at, with the

exception of 2008, in which prices spiked dueto a large number of $3M+ closings duringquarters 3 and 4 (clearly seen in the total mar-ket volume graph), mostly in the Mandarin Ori-ental building in the Back Bay. Median prices

declined a modest 5% overall over the entireperiod. However, average price per square foothas increased over the decade, and in conjunc-tion with the slight decrease in median prices,


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in this section:Allston

Back BayBeacon Hill

CharlestownDorchester

East BostonFenway/Kenmore

Hyde ParkJamaica Plain

Leather DistrictMattapanMidtown

North EndRoslindale

RoxburySeaport

South BostonSouth EndWaterfrontWest End

West Roxbury

PART FOuR:THE

NEIGHBORHOODS

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STATEOFThENEIghBORhOODS

As I wrote in the introduction, the citywide market stats dont tell the whole story. When

examining the neighborhood by neighborhood prices that youll see in this section,the average o the median price changes since 2000 or all the neighborhoods was anincrease o 58.9%. Thats a little conusing, but what it means is that, on average, when

looking at the individual neighborhoods we see a much more substantial price improve-ment than occurred citywide over the past decade. In act o the 22 neighborhoods inthis report, 17 saw median price gains o more than 25% over the decade.

There has been substantial weakness in many neighborhoods in the past 3 years, espe-cially those that were harder hit by oreclosures and bank sales. But there were many

strong perormers as well, even in the ace o a major economic downturn.

I dont have commentary or each neighborhood, but instead just present the data or

you. Youll probably have a particular neighborhood or two that you are more interestedin so I invite you to have a look at how they have perormed. One word o warning -youll notice sharp changes in the data over time or some o the neighborhoods, espe-

cially the smaller ones. This is more an indication o a limited number o sales occurringin that area during a period o time, and depending on the given properties sold at thattime, there could be wild swings compared to previous quarters or years. Its not really

an indication o the market as a whole (or individual property values) trending up ordown, but just a case o a d iferent type o property selling at that time (possibly a newdevelopment building just coming on line).

023bostoN CoNDo mARkEt | thE NEIghboRhooDs

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1 2

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5

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208

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17

1. Alln2. Back Bay3. Beacon Hill4. brin5. Carlewn

6. Dorchester7. Ea bn8. fenway9. Financial District10. Hyde Park11. Jamaica Plain12. Leather District13. Mattapan14. midwn

15. Nr End16. Roslindale17. Rxry18. seapr19. s bn20. s End21. Waerrn22. We End23. West Robry

23

024bostoN CoNDo mARkEt |NEIGHBORHOOD MAP

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INThISSECTION:ThENEIghBORhOODS

In each o the neighborhood sections, youll nd either two pages or our pages o key

market inormation. or the Back Bay, Beacon Hill, Charlestown, enway, Jamaica Plain,Leather District, Midtown, North Edn, Seaport, South Boston, South End, Waterront, andWest End, the main source o data is LINK which had a larger data set so I had more inor-

mation inormation to display. or Allston, Brighton, Dorchester, East Boston, Hyde Park,Mattapan, Roslindale, Roxbury, and West Roxbury, the main data source was MLSpin, asmaller data set so I could only create the key market graphs to show you.

The rst two pages or each neighborhood look at the market dynamics over time (boththe decade and the last three years), while the last two pages show 2009 in more detail

with a breakdown o the market by bedrooms and by square ootage beore getting intodiscount rates and condo ees analysis.

THE IRST PAGE will display the average pricing and key market indicators on a grid orthe past 3 years and at the beginning o the decade. Graphs o average pricing and totalmarket volume will show changes over time or pricing and the total market size in the

particular neighborhood.

PAGE TWOofers three comparison graphs showing market changes over time. or each

graph there is a 10 year graph showing annual data and a closer look at the past 3 yearswith quarterly numbers displayed directly below. The rst graph shows average prices.The second graph shows average price per square oot (the light blue line measured on

the let axis) and the number o sales (dark blue columns measured on the right axis).The third graph shows average discount (both rom original list price and rom nal list

price ater all price reductions are taken) which are the medium and light blue columnsmeasured on the let axis, and average days on market, the dark blue line measured onthe right axis.

PAGE THREEdisplays sales data or 2009, but broken down into bedroom segments inthe top grid and into square ootage segments in the bottom grid. This is a closer look athow the market is perorming in diferent segments and how those segments may difer

rom the overall market stats.

THE OURTH page also contains 2009 sales data.

025bostoN CoNDo mARkEt | thE NEIghboRhooDs

The upper let graph displays discount rates or the neighborhood (rom original price

and rom nal list price ater reductions) shown in the dark blue and medium bluecolumns measured on the let axis or every 30 days o market time. This indicateswhat percentage was typically negotiated of the list price as days on market increas-

es. The light blue line (measured on the right axis) shows the percentage o condosthat sold within that days on market segment.

The bottom let graph is very similar to the one above it, except it shows price rangesegments rather than days on market segments.

On the right side o the page, the top graph shows average condo ee by price rangeand the bottom graph displays the average condo ee or ull service buildings (typi-cally newer construction with concierge level services) compared to smaller (typically

brownstone or smaller mulitamily type) buildings or a given neighborhood.

O course, I am always happy to answer any questions you may have:

[email protected]

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2000-2009 boston condo market trends report

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