2 + 2 = ? two plus two might not always equal four
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2 + 2 = ? Two Plus Two Might Not Always Equal Four. Enhanced Strategic Planning. Rob Lillis Evalumetrics Research and Lynne Gochenaur Marcus Whitman Schools. Logic Model. Why? Root Causes (Weighted factors ). What? (Prevalence). Why Here? Local factors. Implementation. Evaluation. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Enhanced Strategic Planning
Alcohol
Risk Factors
Protective Factors
Workgroup
Input
Develop
Action Plan
What? (Prevale
nce)
Why? Root
Causes(Weighted factors)
Why Here?Local factors
Implementation
Evaluation
Evaluation
Alcohol
What? (Prevalenc
e)
What we measure is often determined by what we are
concerned aboutor (in some cases),
someone else’s pre-determined
concerns or priorities.
Groups are then formed because of
that issue/problem.
AlcoholRisk Factors
Protective Factors
What? (Prevalen
ce)
Why? Root
Causes(Weighted
factors)
Interventions are usually planned based only on prevalence of risk and protective factors.
Unfortunately…
this is where most planning stops.
For Example……
Favorable Attitudes Toward Drug UseFavorable Attitudes Toward Drug Use
Anystate, USAAnystate, USA
Total number of Students surveyed:
N=320
Favorable Attitudes Toward Drug UseFavorable Attitudes Toward Drug Use
Anystate, USAAnystate, USA
Total number of Students surveyed:
N=32012.8% of students surveyed scored at
the risk level
87.2% of students surveyed did not score
at the risk level
Prevalence Prediction of Problem Behavior
Favorable Attitudes Toward Drug UseFavorable Attitudes Toward Drug Use
Anystate, USAAnystate, USA
Total number of Students surveyed:
N=32012.8% of students surveyed scored at
the risk level
87.2% of students surveyed did not score
at the risk level
63% of students who scored at the risk level
reported drinking alcohol in the past 30 days.
Prevalence Prediction of Problem Behavior
Favorable Attitudes Toward Drug UseFavorable Attitudes Toward Drug Use
Anystate, USAAnystate, USA
Total number of Students surveyed:
N=32012.8% of students surveyed scored at
the risk level
87.2% of students surveyed did not score
at the risk level
63% of students who scored at the risk level
reported drinking alcohol in the past 30 days.
22.3% of students who did not score at the risk level
reported drinking alcohol in the past 30 days
Prevalence Prediction of Problem Behavior
Favorable Attitudes Toward Drug UseFavorable Attitudes Toward Drug Use
Anystate, USAAnystate, USA
Total number of Students surveyed:
N=32012.8% of students surveyed scored at
the risk level
87.2% of students surveyed did not score
at the risk level
63% of students who scored at the risk level
reported drinking alcohol in the past 30 days.
22.3% of students who did not score at the risk level
reported drinking alcohol in the past 30 days
Therefore…
Students who have favorable attitudes toward drugs were 2.56 times more likely
(63%/22.3%) to report drinking in the last 30 days
Prevalence Prediction of Problem Behavior
Antisocial BehaviorAntisocial Behavior
Anystate, USAAnystate, USA
Total number of Students surveyed:
N=3206.8% of students
surveyed scored at the risk level
93.2% of students surveyed did not score
at the risk level
64% of students who scored at the risk level
reported drinking alcohol in the past 30 days.
24.8% of students who did not score at the risk level
reported drinking alcohol in the past 30 days
Therefore…
Students who have favorable attitudes toward drugs were 2.56
times more likely (64%/24.8%) to report drinking in the last 30 days
Prevalence Prediction of Problem Behavior
Friends Use DrugsFriends Use Drugs
Anystate, USAAnystate, USA
Total number of Students surveyed:
N=32013.1% of students surveyed scored at
the risk level
86.9% of students surveyed did not score
at the risk level
57% of students who scored at the risk level
reported drinking alcohol in the past 30 days.
23.0% of students who did not score at the risk level
reported drinking alcohol in the past 30 days
Therefore…
Students who have favorable attitudes toward drugs were 2.48 times more likely (57%/23%) to report drinking in the last 30 days
Prevalence Prediction of Problem Behavior
Lack Perceived Risks of Drug UseLack Perceived Risks of Drug Use
Anystate, USAAnystate, USA
Total number of Students surveyed:
N=32018.8% of students surveyed scored at
the risk level
81.2% of students surveyed did not score
at the risk level
50% of students who scored at the risk level
reported drinking alcohol in the past 30 days.
22.3% of students who did not score at the risk level
reported drinking alcohol in the past 30 days
Therefore…
Students who have favorable attitudes toward drugs were 2.24
times more likely (50%/22.3%) to report drinking in the last 30 days
Prevalence Prediction of Problem Behavior
Parental Attitudes Favorable to Drug UseParental Attitudes Favorable to Drug Use
Anystate, USAAnystate, USA
Total number of Students surveyed:
N=32013.8% of students surveyed scored at
the risk level
86.2% of students surveyed did not score
at the risk level
52.3% of students who scored at the risk level
reported drinking alcohol in the past 30 days.
23.6% of students who did not score at the risk level
reported drinking alcohol in the past 30 days
Therefore…
Students who perceive their parents have attitudes that favor drug use
were 2.2 times more likely (52.3%/23.6%) to report drinking in
the last 30 days
Prevalence Prediction of Problem Behavior
Lack of rewards for Pro-social Involvement in the CommunityLack of rewards for Pro-social Involvement in the Community
Anystate, USAAnystate, USA
Total number of Students surveyed:
N=32032.5% of students surveyed scored at
the risk level
64.5% of students surveyed did not score
at the risk level
27.8% of students who scored at the risk level
reported drinking alcohol in the past 30 days.
26.9% of students who did not score at the risk level
reported drinking alcohol in the past 30 days
Therefore…
Students who lack rewards for pro-social involvement in their community were less likely
(27.8%/26.9%) to report drinking in the last 30 days
Prevalence Prediction of Problem Behavior
Alcohol
Risk Factors
Protective
Factors
WorkgroupInput
What? (Prevale
nce)
Why? Root
Causes(Weighte
d factors)
Why Here?Local factors
Anytown USA
Rating
High School Students - 2011 N=320
(1-10)
Favorable Attitudes Toward Drug Use (Risk Factor – Peer/Individual Domain)
Antisocial Behavior (Risk Factor – Peer/Individual Domain) Friend Use Drugs (Risk Factor – Peer/Individual Domain)
Lack Perceived Risks of Drug Use (Protective Factor– Peer/Individual Domain)
Parental Attitudes Favorable to Drug Use (Risk Factor – Family Domain) Perceived Availability of Drugs (Risk Factor – Community Domain) Sensation Seeking (Risk Factor – Peer/Individual Domain)
Business Parent Civic/Volunteer Religious/Fraternal Healthcare School Law Enforcement State/Local/Tribal Government Media Youth Other Substance Abuse Youth-Serving Organization
Anytown USAStrategic PlanningFactor Rankings –I (Importance Scale)
Give each of the following factors a score from 1 to 10 to represent how significant or important
it is as a problem in your community. A score of 1 represents little or no significance and a score of 10 means it is a very significant
problem for your sector. Rate each factor separately. More than one factor can have the same rating or
score.
Date of Rating _______________________________________________Rater name __________________________________________________Rater sector (Check all that apply)
Other ___________________________________________________________
Aware of the issue.
Concerned about the issue.
Informed about the issue.
Motivated to act.
Informed about strategies.
Committed to action.
Informed of results.
Anytown USA
Rating
High School Students - 2011 N=320
(1-10)
Favorable Attitudes Toward Drug Use (Risk Factor – Peer/Individual Domain)
Antisocial Behavior (Risk Factor – Peer/Individual Domain)
Friend Use Drugs (Risk Factor – Peer/Individual Domain)
Lack Perceived Risks of Drug Use (Protective Factor– Peer/Individual Domain)
Parental Attitudes Favorable to Drug Use (Risk Factor – Family Domain)
Perceived Availability of Drugs (Risk Factor – Community Domain)
Sensation Seeking (Risk Factor – Peer/Individual Domain)
Business Parent Civic/Volunteer Religious/Fraternal Healthcare School Law Enforcement State/Local/Tribal Government Media Youth Other Substance Abuse Youth-Serving Organization
Anytown USAStrategic Planning
Factor Rankings –II (Viability Scale)Give each of the following factors a score from 1 to 10 to represent the extent to which your
community “ready to influence” the factor if resources were available. A score of 1 represents little or no significance and a score of 10 means it is a very significant problem for your sector. Rate each factor separately. More than one factor can have the same rating or score.
Other ___________________________________________________________
Date of Rating _______________________________________________Rater name __________________________________________________Rater sector (Check all that apply)
Alcohol
Risk Factors
Protective Factors
Workgroup
Input Develop Action Plan
What? (Prevale
nce)
Why? Root
Causes(Weighte
d factors)
Why Here?Local factors
Implementation
Anytown USA Prev Alcohol Weighted
High School Students - 2010 Factor Rank Rank Rate I Rate II Score
Sensation Seeking (R22-PI) 32.2% 1 7 3 12 5.75
Lack Perceived Risks of Drug Use (P8-PI) 18.8% 5 4 12 3 6.00
Friend Use Drugs (R21-PI) 13.1% 14 3 4 6 6.75
Favorable Attitudes Toward Drug Use (R19-PI) 12.8% 15 1 8 4 7.00
Lack Opportunities for Prosocial Involvement (P1-C) 21.9% 2 19 1 14 9.00
Favorable Attitudes Toward Antisocial Beh (R18-PI) 16.6% 9 16 14 9 12.00
Lack of Supervision and Rules (R6-F) 20.0% 3 24 5 18 12.50
Antisocial Behavior (R17-PI) 6.9% 24 2 9 16 12.75
Perceived Availability of Drugs (R5-C) 12.8% 16 6 6 23 12.75
Parental Attitudes Favorable to Drug Use (R10-F) 13.8% 12 5 13 21 12.75
Some sites provide evidence-based programs that link directly to risk and protective factors.
For example…
Problem behavior: underage drinking
Favorable attitudes toward drug use
Life Skills Training Program
Reduction in favorable attitudes drug use
Results in reduced in reduced alcohol use
Problem behavior: violence
Anti-social behavior
Olweus Bullying Prevention Program
OBBP leads to a reduction in bullying
Results in reduced ant-social behavior
Reduced bullying leads to reduced violence
Alcohol
Risk Factors
Protective Factors
Workgroup
Input
Develop Action Plan
What? (Prevalen
ce)
Why? Root
Causes(Weighte
d factors)
Why Here?Local factors
Implementation
Evaluation
Evaluation
Answers the question – “What happened…
…compared to what would have happened?”
Process…
What did you do…
Outputs
Outcomes…
What changed…
Compared to?
Why?
Re-measure what was measured in needs assessment.
Add new measures as needed.
Strategy-specific protocols.
Process measures are critical.
If you didn’t do what you said you would do…
you can’t attribute cause to change.
Organizations have the tendency to do what other communities are doing to address the same
problem in their community.
The risk and protective factors that predict that problem for your young people may not be the
same as in that community,
the interventions are not successful.
The problem
?
Therefore,
1. You can complete the planning process in a limited number of sessions (six).
2. The planning is focused.
3. The planning is efficient.
4. You get real involvement and buy-in from members/partners.
You move from the “solution of the week” based on the “problem of the day”
to a
Quantitative-based strategic planning process
Rob Lillis
Evalumetrics Research
Lynne Gochenaur
Marcus Whitman School District