17 september 2012 asianbondsonline.adb.org key ... and weak global economic prospects. while...

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17 September 2012 asianbondsonline.adb.org ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………..……………..…… Key Developments in Asian Local Currency Markets 1 Asia Bond Monitor September 2012 read more 10-Year Selected LCY Government Security Yields Close of 14 September 2012 basis point change from Markets Latest Closing Previous Day* Previous Week* 1-Jan-12* Selected Benchmark Yield Curves Local Currency Government Policy Rate versus Inflation Rate Charts Government Security Yields Credit Default Swap Spreads and Exchange Rate Indexes Selected Debt Security Issuances Selected Asia Data Releases 2- versus 10- Year Yield Spread Chart ast week, the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) launched another round of quantitative easing to boost economic activity and improve employment conditions as inflation remained moderate. The FOMC announced that it will buy additional agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) at a pace of US$40 billion per month. It will also increase its holdings of longer-term securities by about US$85 billion each month through the end of the year. The FOMC said that the monthly purchase of MBS will continue until a significant improvement in the labor market has been observed. The FOMC will keep the target range for the federal funds rate at zero to 0.25% until at least mid-2015. Policy rates were held steady in Indonesia, the Republic of Korea, and the Philippines last week. Industrial production for manufacturing industries in Hong Kong, China fell 2.9% year- on-year (y-o-y) in 2Q12, after declining 1.6% in 1Q12. Growth of Malaysia's industrial production eased to 1.4% y-o-y in July, lower than the 3.7% growth rate posted in June. Singapore's retail sales dropped further in July, falling 2.9% y-o-y compared with a 0.4% decline in June. Japan revised downward its 2Q12 real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate from 0.3% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) to 0.2%. Japan's current account surplus narrowed to JPY625.4 billion in July, down 40.6% y-o-y. Meanwhile, core machinery orders rose 4.6% month-on-month (m-o-m) in July. New loans in the People's Republic of China (PRC) reached CNY703.9 billion in August, up from CNY548.4 billion a year earlier, on account of increased demand for funding infrastructure projects. In the Philippines, the total outstanding loans of commercial banks, net of banks' reverse repurchase (RRP) placements with the BSP, grew 16.0% y-o-y in July versus 14.9% in June. Foreign direct investment in the Philippines reached US$917 million in the first half of 2012 or 10.6% higher than the amount reported in the same period last year. Philippine exports also bucked the regional trend of slowing and posted a 7.1% y-o-y increase in July on export earnings of US$4.8 billion. Standard & Poor's (S&P) upgraded its foreign-currency long-term credit rating for the Republic of Korea to A+ from A last week. It also raised its local-currency long-term credit rating to AA- from A+ and its local-currency short-term credit rating to A-1+ from A-1. The outlook on the long-term credit ratings is stable. In Malaysia, Perbadanan Tabung Pendidikan Tinggi Nasional (PTPTN) issued MYR1 billion worth of 10-year sukuk (Islamic bonds) last week. In Singapore, Ezra Holdings Ltd. issued SGD200 million of 3-year notes. Meanwhile, Shinhan Bank priced CNH600 million worth of 2-year bonds and Axiata Group Bhd. priced CNH1 billion of 2-year sukuk. Sino Land, Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power, NongHyup Bank, Siam Commercial Bank, and PTT Global Chemical priced dollar- denominated bonds last week. Government bond yields fell last week for all tenors in Indonesia, and for most tenors in Malaysia and the Philippines. Yields rose for all tenors in the PRC; Hong Kong, China; and Singapore, and for most tenors in the Republic of Korea and Thailand. Yield movements were mixed in Viet Nam. Yield spreads between 2- and 10- year maturities widened in Indonesia, Singapore and Thailand, while spreads narrowed in most other emerging East Asian markets. L US 1.87 14.30 19.82 -1.02 EU 1.71 15.20 18.70 -12.30 Japan 0.80 -2.30 -1.80 -18.40 PRC 3.56 5.00 14.00 12.00 Hong Kong, China 0.72 0.30 1.90 -74.60 India 8.18 0.30 -2.00 -38.60 Indonesia 5.86 -7.20 -12.70 -16.60 Korea, Rep. of 3.08 1.00 2.00 -71.00 Malaysia 3.47 -2.50 -2.30 -22.80 Philippines 4.69 -1.15 -10.79 -39.68 Singapore 1.51 8.00 13.00 -12.00 Thailand 3.61 -2.00 13.90 32.10 Viet Nam 10.50 0.00 0.00 -200.00 19.82 18.70 -1.80 14.00 1.90 -2.00 -12.70 2.00 -2.30 -10.79 13.00 13.90 0.00

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Page 1: 17 September 2012 asianbondsonline.adb.org Key ... and weak global economic prospects. While inflation forecasts have risen slightly, inflation is still within the BSP target. The

17 September 2012 asianbondsonline.adb.org

……………………………………………………………………………………………………………..……………..……

Key Developments in Asian Local Currency Markets

1

Asia Bond Monitor September 2012 read more

10-Year Selected LCY Government Security Yields Close of 14 September 2012basis point change from

Markets Latest Closing Previous Day* Previous Week* 1-Jan-12*

Selected Benchmark Yield Curves — Local Currency Government

Policy Rate versus Inflation Rate Charts

Government Security Yields

Credit Default Swap Spreads and Exchange Rate IndexesSelected Debt Security Issuances Selected Asia Data Releases

2- versus 10- Year Yield Spread Chart

ast week, the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) launched another round of quantitative easing to boost economic activity and improve employment conditions as inflation remained moderate. The FOMC announced that it will buy additional agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) at a pace of US$40 billion per month. It will also increase its holdings of longer-term securities by about US$85 billion each month through the

end of the year. The FOMC said that the monthly purchase of MBS will continue until a significant improvement in the labor market has been observed. The FOMC will keep the target range for the federal funds rate at zero to 0.25% until at least mid-2015.

Policy rates were held steady in Indonesia, the Republic of Korea, and the Philippines last week.

Industrial production for manufacturing industries in Hong Kong, China fell 2.9% year-on-year (y-o-y) in 2Q12, after declining 1.6% in 1Q12. Growth of Malaysia's industrial production eased to 1.4% y-o-y in July, lower than the 3.7% growth rate posted in June. Singapore's retail sales dropped further in July, falling 2.9% y-o-y compared with a 0.4% decline in June.

Japan revised downward its 2Q12 real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate from 0.3% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) to 0.2%. Japan's current account surplus narrowed to JPY625.4 billion in July, down 40.6% y-o-y. Meanwhile, core machinery orders rose 4.6% month-on-month (m-o-m) in July.

New loans in the People's Republic of China (PRC) reached CNY703.9 billion in August, up from CNY548.4 billion a year earlier, on account of increased demand for funding infrastructure projects. In the Philippines, the total outstanding loans of commercial banks, net of banks' reverse repurchase (RRP) placements with the BSP, grew 16.0% y-o-y in July versus 14.9% in June.

Foreign direct investment in the Philippines reached US$917 million in the first half of 2012 or 10.6% higher than the amount reported in the same period last year. Philippine exports also bucked the regional trend of slowing and posted a 7.1% y-o-y increase in July on export earnings of US$4.8 billion.

Standard & Poor's (S&P) upgraded its foreign-currency long-term credit rating for the Republic of Korea to A+ from A last week. It also raised its local-currency long-term credit rating to AA- from A+ and its local-currency

short-term credit rating to A-1+ from A-1. The outlook on the long-term credit ratings is stable.

In Malaysia, Perbadanan Tabung Pendidikan Tinggi Nasional (PTPTN) issued MYR1 billion worth of 10-year sukuk (Islamic bonds) last week. In Singapore, Ezra Holdings Ltd. issued SGD200 million of 3-year notes. Meanwhile, Shinhan Bank priced CNH600 million worth of 2-year bonds and Axiata Group Bhd. priced CNH1 billion of 2-year sukuk. Sino Land, Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power, NongHyup Bank, Siam Commercial Bank, and PTT Global Chemical priced dollar-denominated bonds last week.

Government bond yields fell last week for all tenors in Indonesia, and for most tenors in Malaysia and the Philippines. Yields rose for all tenors in the PRC; Hong Kong, China; and Singapore, and for most tenors in the Republic of Korea and Thailand. Yield movements were mixed in Viet Nam. Yield spreads between 2- and 10- year maturities widened in Indonesia, Singapore and Thailand, while spreads narrowed in most other emerging East Asian markets.

L

US 1.87 14.30 19.82 -1.02EU 1.71 15.20 18.70 -12.30Japan 0.80 -2.30 -1.80 -18.40PRC 3.56 5.00 14.00 12.00Hong Kong, China 0.72 0.30 1.90 -74.60India 8.18 0.30 -2.00 -38.60Indonesia 5.86 -7.20 -12.70 -16.60Korea, Rep. of 3.08 1.00 2.00 -71.00Malaysia 3.47 -2.50 -2.30 -22.80Philippines 4.69 -1.15 -10.79 -39.68Singapore 1.51 8.00 13.00 -12.00Thailand 3.61 -2.00 13.90 32.10Viet Nam 10.50 0.00 0.00 -200.00

19.82

18.70

-1.80

14.00

1.90

-2.00

-12.70

2.00

-2.30

-10.79

13.00

13.90

0.00

Page 2: 17 September 2012 asianbondsonline.adb.org Key ... and weak global economic prospects. While inflation forecasts have risen slightly, inflation is still within the BSP target. The

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DEBT HIGHLIGHTSASIANBONDSONLINE

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Summary Text of News Articles

US Federal Reserve Launches QE3 ....................................................................................................................... On 13 September, the United States (US) Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) launched a third round of quantitative easing (QE3) to boost economic activity and improve employment conditions as inflation remained moderate. The FOMC announced that it will buy additional agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) at a pace of US$40 billion per month. It will also increase its holdings of longer-term securities by about US$85 billion per month. The FOMC said that the monthly purchase of MBS would continue until improvement in the labor market has been observed. The FOMC will keep the target range for the federal funds rate at zero to 0.25% until at least mid-2015.

Policy Rates Held Steady in Indonesia, the Republic of Korea, and the Philippines ....................................................................................................................... The Board of Governors of Bank Indonesia (BI) decided to keep its benchmark interest rate steady at 5.75%, a record-low level, in its meeting held on 13 September. BI said that the rate remains consistent with BI's inflation forecast of between 3.5% and 5.5% for the year. The central bank also noted that recent developments in the external balance have pointed toward an improved current account deficit in 3Q12. BI remains vigilant on some risks and, more importantly, on worsening global economic growth, which may put pressure on the current account balance.

The Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Committee decided to keep its base rate steady at 3.00% in its 13 September meeting. The committee stated that US economic recovery had weakened, while sluggishness in the eurozone's economic activity had deepened. It added that the Republic of Korea's economic growth remained weak and the committee expects inflation in the country to pick up in the aftermath of the damage caused by the recent typhoon and amid unstable international oil and grain prices.

Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) kept its policy rates steady at 3.75% (overnight borrowing) and 5.75% (overnight lending) last week. BSP said that the prevailing monetary policy settings remained appropriate given the benign inflation environment and weak global economic prospects. While inflation forecasts have risen slightly, inflation is still within the BSP target. The strengthening of the peso also aided in tempering inflationary pressures from global commodity prices.

For policy rate trends in Indonesia, refer to this link: http://asianbondsonline.adb.org/indonesia/data/marketwatch.php?code=policy_rate_and_inflation_trends

For policy rate trends in the Republic of Korea, refer to this link: http://asianbondsonline.adb.org/korea/data/marketwatch.php?code=policy_rate_and_inflation_trends

For policy rate trends in the Philippines, refer to this link: http://asianbondsonline.adb.org/philippines/data/marketwatch.php?code=policy_rate_and_inflation_trends

Industrial Production Slows in Hong Kong, China and Malaysia ....................................................................................................................... Industrial production for manufacturing industries in Hong Kong, China fell 2.9% year-on-year (y-o-y) in 2Q12 after declining 1.6% in 1Q12. Correspondingly, the producer price index decreased 0.7% in 2Q12 over a year earlier.

Malaysia's industrial production growth eased to 1.4% y-o-y in July, lower than the 3.7% growth posted in June. The mining index dropped 10.4% y-o-y in July, larger than the 0.5% decline posted in June. The electricity index registered an increase of only 2.8% y-o-y in July versus 5.9% in June. Meanwhile, the manufacturing index rose 5.5% y-o-y in July, higher than the 4.8% increase in June. On a month-on-month (m-o-m) basis, the industrial production index contracted by 4.7% due to a decline in all sub-indices, including mining (-10.2%), manufacturing (-3.4%), and electricity (-1.8%). Manufacturing sales grew 5.2% y-o-y in July, lower than the 6.3% growth registered in the previous month. On a m-o-m basis, manufacturing sales dropped 2.8% in July.

Japan Lowers 2Q12 GDP Growth Data; Current Account Surplus Slumps and Machinery Orders Rise in July .......................................................................................................................

Japan revised its 2Q12 real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate from 0.3% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) to 0.2%. This translated into a revised annualized expansion of 0.7% in 2Q12 from the 1.4% increase that was initially reported. Domestic consumption came in weaker, showing an uptick of 0.2% q-o-q from 0.4%, as both private and public demand

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Summary Text of News Articles

Japan Lowers 2Q12 GDP Growth Data; Current Account Surplus Slumps and Machinery Orders Rise in July (cont…) .......................................................................................................................

faltered. Japan's current account surplus also narrowed to JPY625.4 billion in July, down 40.6% y-o-y as exports to Europe and the People's Republic of China (PRC) weakened. The trade deficit was JPY373.6 billion, down 7.4% y-o-y. Fears headwinds due to Europe's deepening turmoil were tempered with better-than-expected data on core machinery orders, which rose 4.6% m-o-m in July. Japan's machinery orders are seen as a leading indicator of corporate capital spending.

Singapore Retail Sales Falls 2.9% in July ....................................................................................................................... Singapore's retail sales dropped further in July, falling 2.9% y-o-y compared with a 0.4% decline in June. Excluding motor vehicles, retail sales fell 0.7% y-o-y in July. Retail sales of motor vehicles dropped 9.7% y-o-y in July. Also, sales of watches and jewellery, recreations goods, petrol service stations, telecommunications apparatus and computers, department stores, optical goods and books, furniture and household equipment, and wearing apparel and footwear fell between 1.1% and 4.5% y-o-y in July. Meanwhile, retail sales of medical goods and toiletries rose 8.6% y-o-y, while supermarkets, food and beverages, and provision and sundry shops recorded increases in sales of between 1.0% and 5.5% y-o-y in July.

PRC New Loans Hits CNY703.9 Billion in August; Bank Lending in the Philippines Up 15.2% in July .......................................................................................................................

New loans extended in the PRC in August reached CNY703.9 billion, up from CNY548.4 billion in the same period last year, on the back of increased demand for funding for infrastructure projects. The figure was also higher than market forecast of CNY600 billion.

In the Philippines, the amount of total outstanding loans of commercial banks, net of banks' reverse repurchase (RRP) placements with the BSP, grew at 16.0% y-o-y in July versus 14.9% in June. Bank lending, inclusive of RRPs, likewise recorded a higher rate of 15.2% y-o-y from 12.2% in the previous month. Commercial bank loans have been growing at double-digit rates since January 2011. On a m-o-m seasonally-adjusted basis, commercial bank lending in July increased 2.0% for loans net of RRPs and 5.0% for loans inclusive of RRPs.

Philippines' FDI Rises 10.6% in 1H12; Exports Surge 7.1% in July ....................................................................................................................... Foreign direct investment (FDI) in the Philippines reached US$917 million in the first half of 2012, up 10.6% from the same period last year. A four-fold increase in equity capital from US$260 million in 1H11 to US$1.07 billion in 1H12 was the main driver of FDI growth. The strong performance of FDI reflected high levels of investor confidence as the country's macroeconomic fundamentals remained robust.

Philippine exports also bucked the regional trend of slowing growth and posted a 7.1% y-o-y increase in July on export earnings of US$4.8 billion. July exports jumped 11.4% from June's earnings of US$4.3 billion. Export growth was buoyed by non-traditional items such as activated carbon, metal components, bananas, ignition wiring sets and other wiring sets used in vehicles, aircrafts and ships, pineapple and pineapple products, tuna, and woodcrafts and furniture. Electronics remained the country's top export, grossing US$1.7 billion, although this represented a decline of 25.6% y-o-y. Singapore accounted for 17.3% of total exports, ranking as the Philippines top export destination. It surpassed Japan's share of 15.9%, which ranked second. The US was the country's third most popular export destination followed by the PRC and Hong Kong, China.

S&P Upgrades Republic of Korea's Credit Ratings ....................................................................................................................... Standard & Poor's (S&P) upgraded its foreign-currency long-term credit rating for the Republic of Korea to A+ from A last week. It also raised its local-currency long-term credit rating to AA- from A+ and its local-currency short-term credit rating to A-1+ from A-1. The outlook on the long-term credit ratings is stable. The ratings agency stated that the upgrade is based on its less negative assessment of the geopolitical risks on the Korean peninsula.

Page 4: 17 September 2012 asianbondsonline.adb.org Key ... and weak global economic prospects. While inflation forecasts have risen slightly, inflation is still within the BSP target. The

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Summary Text of News Articles

PTPTN Issues MYR1 Billion of 10-Year Sukuk; CIMB Islamic Issues MYR300 Million of 10-Year Sukuk;

Ezra Holdings Issues SGD200 Million of 3-Year Notes; Shinhan Bank Prices CNH600 Million 2-Year Bond;

Axiata Group Prices CNH1 Billion 2-Year Sukuk ....................................................................................................................... In Malaysia, Perbadanan Tabung Pendidikan Tinggi Nasional (PTPTN), Malaysia's National Higher Education Corporation, issued MYR1 billion worth of 10-year sukuk (Islamic bonds). The sukuk, issued under the principle of murahaba (cost-plus financing), pay an annual profit of 3.8%. CIMB Islamic also issued 10-year sukuk worth MYR300 million last week. The sukuk were issued under the musharakah (joint venture) concept and carry a profit rate of 4.0% per year.

In Singapore, offshore service provider Ezra Holdings Ltd. issued SGD200 million of 3-year notes last week. The bonds carry a coupon of 5.0% per annum. Proceeds from the issuance will be used to refinance the group's existing short-term borrowings.

Meanwhile, Shinhan Bank priced CNH600 million worth of 2-year bonds at a yield of 3.5% in Hong Kong, China. Malaysian mobile phone operator Axiata Group Bhd. priced CNH1 billion of 2-year sukuk. The sukuk, issued under its US$1.5 billion Multi-Currency Sukuk Programme, have been assigned ratings of BBB- by Standard & Poor's and Baa2 by Moody's. The sukuk are structured based on the shari'a principle of wakala (agency agreement) and carry an annual profit of 3.75%.

Sino Land Raises US$500 Million from 5-Year Bond Sale; Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power Raises US$750 Million from 10-Year Bond Sale;

NongHyup Bank Sells US$500 Million of 5-Year Bonds Olam International Prices US$500 Million 5-Year Bond;

Siam Commercial Bank Raises US$500 Million from Bond Tap; PTT Global Chemical Prices US$1 Billion 10-Year Bond .......................................................................................................................

Sino Land, a property developer based in Hong Kong, China, raised US$500 million from the sale of 5-year bonds last week. The bond deal was well-received by investors with the order book reaching US$3.5 billion. The bonds carry a coupon of 3.25%.

Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power issued US$750 million worth of 10-year bonds at a coupon rate of 3.0%, while NongHyup Bank raised US$500 million from the sale of a 5-year bond carrying 2.3% interest.

Olam International Ltd. raised US$500 million from the sale of 5-year notes last week. The notes, which carry a coupon of 5.75% per annum, will be issued under Olam's US$2 billion Euro Medium-Term Note Programme. Proceeds from the issuance will be used to finance working capital and other general corporate purposes, including capital expenditure and potential acquisition opportunities.

Siam Commercial Bank in Thailand priced US$500 million worth of its existing US$-denominated bond with a 3.375% coupon due in September 2017. Investors from Asia took 73% of the total, while the rest went to European and US investors. The bond's outstanding size reached US$1.1 billion following its first issue worth US$600 million, which was made in March.

PTT Global Chemical in Thailand priced US$1 billion worth of 10-year bonds at a coupon rate of 4.25% last week. Investors from Asia bought 54% of the total, followed by European investors with 27%, and US investors with 19%.

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Tip: Zoom-in on the table using the Acrobat zoom tool Selected Government Security Yields

3-Month Selected LCY Government Security Yields

10-Year Selected LCY Government Bond Yields

Close of 14 September 2012

Close of 14 September 2012

EU = European Union, LCY =local currency, PRC = People’s Republic of China, US = United States. Source: Based on data from Bloomberg, LP.

PreviousDay*

PreviousWeek* 1-Jan-12*

US 0.10 0.00 -0.48 8.64EU 0.02 3.40 4.40 8.50Japan 0.10 0.00 0.00 0.00PRC 2.60 3.00 11.00 -17.00Hong Kong, China 0.20 0.00 3.00 -2.00India 8.12 0.00 1.00 -40.00Korea, Rep. of 2.88 0.00 3.00 -48.00Malaysia 3.03 -0.10 -0.20 3.20Philippines 1.20 0.00 -4.50 -17.50Singapore 0.26 0.00 1.00 -11.00Thailand 2.99 -0.14 0.57 -12.86

basis point change fromLatest ClosingMarkets

-0.48

4.40

0.00

11.00

3.00

1.00

3.00

-0.20

-4.50

1.00

0.57

PreviousDay*

PreviousWeek* 1-Jan-12*

US 1.87 14.30 19.82 -1.02EU 1.71 15.20 18.70 -12.30Japan 0.80 -2.30 -1.80 -18.40PRC 3.56 5.00 14.00 12.00Hong Kong, China 0.72 0.30 1.90 -74.60India 8.18 0.30 -2.00 -38.60Indonesia 5.86 -7.20 -12.70 -16.60Korea, Rep. of 3.08 1.00 2.00 -71.00Malaysia 3.47 -2.50 -2.30 -22.80Philippines 4.69 -1.15 -10.79 -39.68Singapore 1.51 8.00 13.00 -12.00Thailand 3.61 -2.00 13.90 32.10Viet Nam 10.50 0.00 0.00 -200.00

basis point change fromLatest ClosingMarkets

19.82

18.70

-1.80

14.00

1.90

-2.00

-12.70

2.00

-2.30

-10.79

13.00

13.90

0.00

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Tip: Zoom-in on the table using the Acrobat zoom tool Benchmark Yield Curves – LCY Government Bonds

Indonesia

EU = European Union, LCY = local currency US = United States. Source: Based on data from Bloomberg.

Viet NamThailandSingapore

PhilippinesMalaysiaKorea, Republic of

Hong Kong, China China, People’s Rep. of

JapanEUUS

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32

Yie

ld (%

)

Time to maturity (years)14-Sep-12 07-Sep-12 31-Aug-12

-0.3

0.1

0.5

0.9

1.3

1.7

2.1

2.5

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Yie

ld (%

)

Time to maturity (years)

14-Sep-12 07-Sep-12 31-Aug-12

0.0

0.3

0.5

0.8

1.0

1.3

1.5

1.8

2.0

2.3

0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40

Yie

ld (%

)

Time to maturity (years)14-Sep-12 07-Sep-12 31-Aug-12

2.25

2.50

2.75

3.00

3.25

3.50

3.75

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

Yie

ld (%

)

Time to maturity (years)14-Sep-12 07-Sep-12 31-Aug-12

0.0

0.5

1.0

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16

Yie

ld (%

)

Time to maturity (years)14-Sep-12 07-Sep-12 31-Aug-12

4.2

4.8

5.4

6.0

6.6

7.2

0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33

Yie

ld (%

)Time to maturity (years)

14-Sep-12 07-Sep-12 31-Aug-12

2.60

2.80

3.00

3.20

3.40

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22

Yie

ld (%

)

Time to maturity (years)14-Sep-12 07-Sep-12 31-Aug-12

2.8

3.0

3.2

3.4

3.6

3.8

4.0

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22

Yie

ld (%

)

Time to maturity (years)

14-Sep-12 07-Sep-12 31-Aug-12

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27

Yie

ld (%

)

Time to maturity (years)

14-Sep-12 07-Sep-12 31-Aug-12

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21

Yie

ld (%

)

Time to maturity (years)14-Sep-12 07-Sep-12 31-Aug-12

2.8

3.0

3.3

3.5

3.8

4.0

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16

Yie

ld (%

)

Time to maturity (years)14-Sep-12 07-Sep-12 31-Aug-12

8.5

8.9

9.3

9.7

10.1

10.5

10.9

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Yie

ld (%

)

Time to maturity (years)14-Sep-12 07-Sep-12 31-Aug-12

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Tip: Zoom-in on the table using the Acrobat zoom tool 2- versus 10- Year Yield Spread Chart

EU = European Union, US = United States. Source: Based on data from Bloomberg LP.

0 50 100 150 200 250

US

EU

Japan

China, People's Rep. of

Hong Kong, China

Indonesia

Korea, Rep. of

Malaysia

Philippines

Singapore

Thailand

Viet Nam

basis points

14-Sep-12

7-Sep-12

31-Aug-12

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DEBT HIGHLIGHTSASIANBONDSONLINE

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Tip: Zoom-in on the table using the Acrobat zoom tool Policy Rate versus Inflation Rate

Philippines Thailand

China, People’s Rep. of Hong Kong, China India

The PRC uses the 1-year lending rate as one of its policy rates. Source: Bloomberg LP.

The Hong Kong Monetary Authority maintains a Discount Window Base Rate. Source: Bloomberg LP.

The Reserve Bank of India uses the repurchase (repo) cut-off yield as its policy rate. Source: Bloomberg LP.

Indonesia Korea, Republic of Malaysia

Bank Indonesia uses its reference interest rate (BI rate) as its policy rate. Source: Bloomberg LP.

The Bank of Korea shifted its policy rate from the overnight repurchase (repo) rate to the 7-day repo rate in March 2008. Source: Bloomberg LP.

Bank Negara Malaysia uses the overnight policy rate (OPR) as its policy rate. Source: Bloomberg LP.

Viet Nam

Bangko Sentral uses the Philippine overnight reverse repurchase agreement rate as one of its policy instruments. Source: Bloomberg LP.

The Bank of Thailand replaced the 14-day repurchase rate with the 1-day repurchase rate in January 2007 as its policy rate. Source: Bloomberg LP.

The State Bank of Viet Nam uses a benchmark prime lending rate as its policy rate. Source: Bloomberg LP.

Inflation Rate

2.00

1-year Lending Rate

6.00

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

Jan-07 Sep-07 Jun-08 Feb-09 Nov-09 Jul-10 Apr-11 Dec-11 Sep-12

Inflation Rate

1.60

HKMA Base Rate

0.50

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

Jan-07 Sep-07 Jun-08 Feb-09 Nov-09 Jul-10 Apr-11 Dec-11 Sep-12

Inflation Rate

7.55

Repurchase Cut-off Yield

8.00

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Jan-07 Sep-07 Jun-08 Feb-09 Nov-09 Jul-10 Apr-11 Dec-11 Sep-12

Inflation Rate4.58

5.75

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

Jan-07 Sep-07 Jun-08 Feb-09 Nov-09 Jul-10 Apr-11 Dec-11 Sep-12

BI Rate

Inflation Rate1.20

7-Day Repo Rate

3.00

0

2

4

6

8

Jan-07 Sep-07 Jun-08 Feb-09 Nov-09 Jul-10 Apr-11 Dec-11 Sep-12

Inflation Rate

1.40

Overnight Policy Rate

3.00

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

Jan-07 Sep-07 Jun-08 Feb-09 Nov-09 Jul-10 Apr-11 Dec-11 Sep-12

Inflation Rate

3.80

Overnight Reverse

Repo Rate

3.75

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Jan-07 Sep-07 Jun-08 Feb-09 Nov-09 Jul-10 Apr-11 Dec-11 Sep-12

Inflation Rate

2.69

1-Day Repo Rate

3.00

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

Jan-07 Sep-07 Jun-08 Feb-09 Nov-09 Jul-10 Apr-11 Dec-11 Sep-12

Inflation Rate

5.04

Prime Lending Rate

9.00

0

3

6

9

12

15

18

21

24

27

30

Jan-07 Sep-07 Jun-08 Feb-09 Nov-09 Jul-10 Apr-11 Dec-11 Sep-12

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Tip: Zoom-in on the table using the Acrobat zoom tool Credit Default Swap Spreads and Exchange Rate Indexes

Credit Default Swap Spreads — Senior 5-Year*

Exchange Rate Indexes (vis-à-vis US$, 2 January 2007=100)

* In US$ and based on sovereign bonds Source: Thomson Reuters

Mid

spre

ad in

bas

is po

ints

Source: ADB-Office of Regional Economic Integration staff calculations based on Bloomberg data.

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

Dec-07 Nov-08 Oct-09 Oct-10 Sep-11 Sep-12

China, People's Rep. of

Hong Kong, China

Indonesia

Korea, Rep. of

Japan

Malaysia

Philippines

Thailand

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

Jan-07 Dec-07 Nov-08 Nov-09 Oct-10 Sep-11 Sep-12

China, People's Rep. of

Indonesia

Korea, Rep. of

Malaysia

Philippines

Thailand

Singapore

Viet Nam

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Tip: Zoom-in on the table using the Acrobat zoom tool Selected Debt Security Issuances (10 – 14 September 2012)

CN 12-Sep 3-year Government Bonds 3.10 30.00 30.00HK 11-Sep 91-day Exchange Fund Bills 0.19 27.90 27.90

182-day Exchange Fund Bills 0.18 9.00 9.00364-day Exchange Fund Notes 0.20 5.00 5.00

14-Sep 3-year Exchange Fund Notes 0.28 1.20 1.205-year Exchange Fund Notes 0.37 1.00 1.00

ID 11-Sep 3-month Treasury Bills 4.02 1,000.001-year Treasury Bills 4.61 1,000.0011-year Treasury Bonds 5.97 400.0016-year Treasury Bonds 6.36 600.0021-year Treasury Bonds 6.69 3,200.00

JP 11-Sep 5-year Japan Government Bonds 0.20 0.20 2,500.00 2,642.1313-Sep 3-month Treasury Discount Bills 0.10 5,700.00 5,739.84

20-year Japan Government Bonds 1.67 1.70 1,200.00 1,198.90KR 10-Sep 91-day Monetary Stabilization Bonds 2.80 1,200.00 1,280.00

1-year Monetary Stabilization Bonds 2.80 800.00 880.005-year Treasury Bonds 2.75 1,600.00 1,600.00

12-Sep 63-day Treasury Bills 2.86 1,000.00 1,000.00MY 10-Sep 126-day BNM Islamic Notes 3.04 1.00 1.00

182-day BNM Islamic Notes 3.04 0.50 0.50210-day BNM Notes 2.97 1.00 1.00

13-Sep 10-year Government Invesment Issue 3.69 4.00 4.00PH 11-Sep 10-year Fixed Rate Treasury Notes 4.69 4.75 9.00 9.00SG 10-Sep 91-day Treasury Bills 0.17 3.00 3.00TH 11-Sep 28-day BOT Bills 2.83 25.00 25.00

91-day BOT Bills 2.98 25.00 25.00182-day BOT Bills 3.04 25.00 25.00

12-Sep 5-year Government Bonds 3.37 3.25 20.00 20.00BNM = Bank Negara Malaysia, BOT = Bank of Thailand, LCY = local currency.Sources: Local market sources and Bloomberg, LP.

5,000.00

A m o u n t Is s u e d (L C Y billio n)M a r k e ts

A u c tio n D a te T y p e o f S e c u r ity

A v e r a g e Y ie ld (% )

C o u p o n (% )

A m o u n t O ffe r e d (L C Y billio n)

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Tip: Zoom-in on the table using the Acrobat zoom tool Selected Asia Data Releases (18 – 24 September 2012)

Source: AsianBondsOnline , Bloomberg LP, and Reuters.

Viet NamCPIy-o-y, %SEP

09/24 08/11: 23.0%09/11: 22.4%07/12: 5.4%08/12: 5.0%

Inf lation in Viet Nam eased for the 12th consecutive month in August, falling to 5.0% from 5.4% in July.

R e le a s e D a te R e c e n t T r e n d sE c o n o m y a n d V a r ia b le H is to r ic a l D a ta

In a meeting held on 9 August, Bank of Japan (BOJ) held its target rate steady at 0.1% to support the Japanese economy.

JapanBOJ Target Rate%19 SEP

09/19 08/11: 0.1%09/11: 0.1%07/12: 0.1%08/12: 0.1%

The unemployment rate in Hong Kong, China has remained unchanged at 3.2% since May.

The balance of payments of Hong Kong, China stood at HKD48.2 billion in 2Q12, a slight drop from its 4Q11 level.

Hong Kong, ChinaUnemployment Rate%AUG

09/18 07/11: 3.5%08/11: 3.2%06/12: 3.2%07/12: 3.2%1Q11: 18.72Q11: 19.64Q11: 49.81Q12: 48.2

09/18Hong Kong, ChinaBalance of PaymentsHKD billion2Q12

Inflation in Hong Kong, China eased signif icantly to 1.6% y-o-y in July from 3.7% in June.

Consumer price inf lation in Singapore slow ed to 4.0% in July from 5.3% in June.

Malaysia’s consumer price inf lation eased to 1.4% year-on-year (y-o-y) in July from 1.6% in June.

MalaysiaCPIy-o-y, %AUG

09/19 07/11: 1,26708/11: 2,71906/12: 1407/12: 3,182

PhilippinesBalance of PaymentsUS$ MillionAUG

The balance of payments of the Philippines surged to US$3.2 billion in July—a dramatic rise from US$14 million in June.

09/19 07/11: 3.4%08/11: 3.3%06/12: 1.6%07/12: 1.4%

09/24 07/11: 5.4%08/11: 5.7%06/12: 5.3%07/12: 4.0%

SingaporeCPIy-o-y, %AUG

Hong Kong, ChinaCPIy-o-y, %AUG

09/20 07/11: 7.9%08/11: 5.7%06/12: 3.7%07/12: 1.6%

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DEBT HIGHLIGHTSASIANBONDSONLINE

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News Articles: Sources for Further Reading

US Federal Reserve Launches QE3

• Press Release Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

(13 September 2012)

Policy Rates Held Steady in Indonesia, the Republic of Korea, and the Philippines

• BI Rate Maintained at 5.75% Bank Indonesia (13 September 2012)

• Monetary Policy Decision (September 13, 2012) The Bank of Korea (13 September 2012)

• Monetary Board Maintains Policy Rates Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (13 September 2012)

Industrial Production Slows in Hong Kong, China and Malaysia

• Provisional statistics on index of industrial production and producer price index for the industrial sector for the second quarter of 2012

Census and Statistics Department (13 September 2012)

• Industrial Production Index Malaysia July 2012 Department of Statistics Malaysia (10 September 2012)

• Monthly Manufacturing Statistics Malaysia July 2012 Department of Statistics Malaysia (10 September 2012)

Japan Lowers 2Q12 GDP Growth Data; Current Account Surplus Slumps and Machinery Orders Rise in July

• Balance of Payments Statistics, July (Preliminary) Ministry of Finance (Japan) (10 September 2012)

• Quarterly Estimates of GDP Cabinet Office (Japan) (10 September 2012)

• Orders Received for Machinery in July, 2012 Cabinet Office (Japan) (12 September 2012)

Singapore Retail Sales Falls 2.9% in July

• Retail Sales Index Singapore Department of Statistics (14 September 2012)

PRC New Loans Hits CNY703.9 Billion in August; Bank Lending in the Philippines Up 15.2% in July

• New yuan loans hit August high China.org (12 September 2012)

• Bank Lending Continues to Expand in July Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (11 September 2012)

Philippines’ FDI Rises 10.6% in 1H12; Exports Surge 7.1% in July

• Net Foreign Direct Investments in the First Half of 2012 Reach US$917 Million

Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (10 September 2012)

• Merchandise Export Performance July 2012 (Preliminary) National Statistics Office (11 September 2012)

S&P Upgrades Republic of Korea’s Credit Ratings

• Research Update: Republic of Korea Long-Term Ratings Raised To 'A+/AA-' On Assessment Of Reduced Geopolitical Risks; Outlook Stable

Standard & Poor's (14 September 2012)

• Korea Gets S&P Upgrade on Stability Amid Global Turmoil Businessweek (14 September 2012)

PTPTN Issues MYR1 Billion of 10-Year Sukuk; CIMB Islamic Issues MYR300 Million of 10-Year Sukuk; Ezra Holdings Issues SGD200 Million of 3-Year Notes; Shinhan Bank Prices CNH600 Million 2-Year Bond;Axiata Group Prices CNH1 Billion 2-Year Sukuk

• Ezra fixed rate notes oversubscribed Singapore Business Review (10 September 2012)

• SBS Transit issues S$150m fixed rate notes Singapore Business Review (13 September 2012)

• Shinhan Bank Sells US$95 Mln Worth of Yuan-Denominated Bonds YONHAP News (12 September 2012)

• Axiata Successfully Prices The World's First Rates RMB SUKUK - Oversubscribed With More Than RMB 3.5 Billion Orders Axiata (11 September 2012)

Sino Land Raises US$500 Million from 5-Year Bond Sale; Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power Raises US$750 Million from 10-Year Bond Sale; NongHyup Bank Sells US$500 Million of 5-Year Bonds; Olam International Prices US$500 Million 5-Year Bond; Siam Commercial Bank Raises US$500 Million from Bond Tap; PTT Global Chemical Prices US$1 Billion 10-Year Bond

• Investment-grade bond market flush with liquidity Finance Asia (14 September 2012)

• Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power Issues US$750 Mln in Bonds YONHAP News (12 September 2012)

• NongHyup Bank Issues US$500 Mln in Dollar Bonds YONHAP News (11 September 2012)

• Olam International to issue US$500m fixed rate notes Singapore Business Review (14 September 2012)

• Siam Commercial Bank Pays Minimal New Concession in Bond Tap The Asset (11 September 2012)

• USD1.75 Billion In New Deals Breathe Life Into Asian Bond Market The Asset (13 September 2012)

• BONDS: PTT Global Outperforms Market IFR Asia (13 September 2012)

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