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252002 November • JOM

A n n u a l C h a n g e o f L a b o r F o r c e ( x 1 0 0 0 )

Labor Force at 1997 Constant Activity Rate800

600

400

200

0

-200

-400

-600

-800

-1,000

-1,200

-1,4001998 2003 2008 2013 2018 2023

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.1

0

-0.1

-0.2

-0.3

-0.4

-0.5

-0.6

-0.7

A n n u a l

C h a n g e o f L a b o r F o r c e ( % )

Annual ChangeAs % of Active Population

Figure 1. Annual labor force change due to demographic changes (EU-15 1998–2025).7

force will decrease within the EU-15’s

population by 2.15 million between

2005 and 2015.

On the other hand, HEE, particularly

universities, have for several years been

confronted with profound changes. These

changes have involved their opening up

to and interacting with society, from

the local to the international level.8

Recruitment of future members of the

scientific and technical communities has

been hindered not only by demographic

trends (Figure 1), but by changing

attitudes: Young people are turning away

from studying science and scientific

careers because science and technology

are no longer considered, by the EU’s

public opinion at least, as panaceas toproblems such as the greenhouse effect,

genetically modified organisms, mad

cow disease, and AIDS. However, public

opinion still has a fair perception of the

scientific and technical communities.9

An opinion poll in the 15 states of

the EU, requested by the directorate

general for research, was performed

between 10 May and 15 June 2001.9

Table II groups the answers to the

question, “For which of the following

professions do you have the most

esteem?” In spite of the above-mentionedproblems, the three most highly regarded

professions have a scientific or technical

dimension. Moreover, 80% of Europeans

believe that science will one day defeat

diseases such as cancer or AIDS, and

72% of the respondents said they would

like politicians to use expert advice in

making their choices.9

On the global level, both individuals

and their governments widely accept

that education is the most important

investment they make. Within the EU,

education is guaranteed to grow rapidly

to become the largest economic sector

before the end of the decade, as well as

the most important for the social and

industrial development of the society

of the EU.10

On the other hand, environmental

problems such as global warming, ozone

depletion, and air contamination can

only be resolved on the global level

and by adopting education and policy

measures for sustainable development.

European sustainable-development

priorities include climate change, public

health hazards, poverty and social exclu-

sion, pressure on natural resources, agingpopulations, transportation bottlenecks

and pollution, as well as social aspects

and environmental impacts on the

industrial sector and related services.10

Pressure on natural resources call for

multidisciplinary research and policy

measures to enhance inverse man-

ufacturing, remanufacturing, recy-

cling, and waste treatment and

minimization in addition to re-

engineering and clean technology.

To attain such objectives, it is neces-

sary to educate future members of thescientific and technical communities.

Moreover, employees should be trained

frequently to match the need of the

society for efficient staff to bridge

the gap due to the rapid technological

evolution. Both groups should be

capable of achieving the goals of

the sustainable development policy

and fulfilling the necessary tasks for

economic development.

Table II. Answers to the Question “ForWhich of the Following Professions Do

You Have the Most Esteem?”*

Profession Rate

Doctors 71.1

Scientists 44.9Engineers 29.8Judges 27.6Sportsmen 23.4Artists 23.1Lawyers 18.1Journalists 13.6Businessmen 13.5None of the above 6.9Politicians 6.6Do not know 3.0

* Opinion poll performed in the EU-15 during May–June2001.9

HISTORICAL

To measure the importance of efforts

to be made, a brief look to the past of

French universities may be useful. The

oldest French HEE can be considered as

that of Paris, created around 1200 and

considered as a corporation of ‘Maîtres

et étudiants.’ It received the name of

university in 1250 when the Sorbonne

was founded. Up to the eighteenth

century, it took about 600 years to create,

organize, and certify 23 French HEE.

In spite of these efforts, the percentage

of illiteracy was significant, at about

60% for women during the first half of

the nineteenth century.10 In 1882, a law

was promulgated, thanks to Jules Ferry,

minister of public instruction, making

education of children from six to 13

years old compulsory and free. In

less than 20 years, the percentage of

illiteracy fell to about 5%.11 Nowadays,

about 97% of French children of agetwo years and older attend nursery

school.12 However, the challenge in the

near future will not be only quantitative

but also qualitative. The LLL, university

corporations, short courses, etc. will

help, but, for students and adults,

learning how to learn13 could be part of

the real solution to this problem.

Over the past three decades in EU-15,

remarkable achievements have been

made in the field of environmental

protection.14 For example, SO2 emissions

were reduced by 60% between 1980 and1995. However, other environmental

issues continue to pose massive chal-

lenges. For instance, the greenhouse

effect induces problems such as clay



26 JOM • November 2002

shrinkage, drought, windstorms, and

tropical cyclones.15 This article will

provide details on the EU’s current

situation. Projections of evolution will

be summarized thanks to the Future

project undertaken by IPTS.1–5,7,10,15

EDUCATION

As mentioned previously, education

in the EU is guaranteed to grow rapidly

to become the largest economic sector

before the end of the decade. This is due

to two main reasons: the technological

evolution is rapid, thus necessitating

LLL, and the need exists to extend

the labor force with new population

segments such as women, immigrants,

and retirees, to compensate for the

demographic trends.

In the EU member states, primary

and secondary education are already

available to the whole population and

usually mandatory for all young people.

It is the school starting and leaving agesthat vary between the member states.

Table III groups the repartition of

students during the whole cycle of

education for the EU-15, the United

States, and Japan. The data analysis of

this table is given below.

Nursery and Primary Schools

In the EU-15, more than 50% of

children who are four years old attend

nursery school. However, this percentage

varies from 36% in Finland to almost

100% in Belgium, the Netherlands,Spain, France, Luxembourg, and the

U.K. More than 97% of children attend

primary school.17

Secondary School

About 71% and 48% of the respective

age groups 25–29 and 50–64 of EU-15

have finished secondary school. This

confirms the sharp progress made in the

last three decades.18

Table III. Registration by Level of Education (1,000), Data 1998/199916

Total Pre- Primary Secondary Post- Higher Population Primary School School Secondary Education Total

EU-15 365,435 10,718 23,064 18,955 999 12,525 84,299US 250,660 7,183 24,938 10,220 1,643 13,769 69,978Japan 124,043 2,962 7,692 4,558 13 3,941 23,567

Table IV. Percentage of Group Age 25–64 Having Higher-Education Diplomas*18

EU-15 B DK D EL E F IRL I L NL A P FIN S UK

Total 21 27 27 23 17 20 21 22 10 18 23 11 10 31 29 27Men 22 26 26 28 19 22 21 26 10 22 25 12 8 28 27 29Women 19 27 27 18 15 19 21 22 9 15 20 10 11 34 30 25

* EU-15: Belgium (B), Denmark (DK), Germany (D), Greece (EL), France (F), Ireland (IRL), Italy (I), Luxembourg (L), Netherlands

(NL), Austria (A), Portugal (P), Finland (FIN), Sweden (S), United Kingdom (UK).

Higher Education

About 21% of the age group 25–64

have completed a higher-education

program as shown in Table IV. However,

this percentage varies with respect to

the sex and the resident country. It is

the minimum for Italian women and the

maximum for Finnish women. It is also

the minimum for Italy and Portugal and

maximum for Finland.

While the level of higher education in

EU-15 is important, that of the United

States is better adapted in terms of

quantity as indicated in Table III, and in

terms of quality, due to the capacity of

matching skills with those demanded

by the labor market.

Educational Outlook

The EU-15’s educational system

has almost the same pattern as other

industrialized countries. It manages

84.3 million students, which is equal to

22% of the total population and about

70% of people under 30. However, this

system does not fulfill completely the

need for LLL from the quantitative and

qualitative point of view.

It is probable that education of

children from three years up to the age

of 18 years, across the existing EU

members, will be generalized before

2010.10 However, higher education,

with around one-third of young persons

participating, is still far from saturation

across the EU. Accordingly, government

investment in higher education is due for

significant expansion, and participation

by young students is likely to double

over this decade.

The most dramatic expansion in the

existing education system will focus

on LLL. The current and projected

structures of LLL are clearly insufficient

with respect to the predicted needs to

retrain 80% of EU workers over thenext decade as their jobs are destroyed

by radical changes in technology. This

training will shift from the conventional

in-house, on-the-job experiential train-

ing. Instead, in the knowledge society,

where employability is now the prime

factor, the needs will be for longer-term

education that provides intellectual

frameworks for individual development

rather than shorter-term training provid-

ing immediate job skills for employers.

The European Commission (EC) needs

to set and monitor standards, where

much of LLL may be delivered across

national boundaries and the resulting

new qualifications will need to be

recognized across the EU. An important

extension of this process will be to

‘certify’ providers of LLL.

EMPLOYMENT

In the EU-15, about 63% of people the

age group 15–64 years are employed.16

For the same age group, it is equal to

74% and

69%

for

the United States

and

Japan, respectively. Moreover, while

employment remains at the top of the

policy agenda, the rate of unemployment

in the EU-15 is around 8.2%. In the

next decade, employment will remain

at the top of the policy agenda but it will

focus on employability, know-how, and

quality of work opportunities.

Effect of Demography

The labor force is changing, from

+ 9.4 million workers between 1985




and 1995 to a projected shortage

of 2.15 million between 2005 and

2015.5 Moreover, this shortage will be

aggravated by what is called triple aging,

an increase in the share of people aged

+65, +80, and the aging of workforce).1

However, because of mismatched skills,

one may underline that the shortage of

the labor force does not mean the end of

unemployment. Within the EU-15, the

fast-decreasing number of workers aged15–29 and the fast-increasing number of

people aged 50 and over will necessitate

the massive development of age-specific

re-training.

Supply-Demand Pattern

The fast development of the European

economy, especially in high-tech and

ICT sectors, shifts the labor force from

blue-collar to white-collar. Moreover,

as the half-life time of most workplaces

decreases, the skills of these white-collar

employees should be upgraded frequently.

In other words, the young skilled labor

force should live with LLL.

One may underline that an aging

population with a shrinking labor force

and a skill mismatch could jeopardize

the social and economic development

of future generations. To bridge these

gaps, it is necessary to make work more

accessible and attractive to workers who

are women, approaching retirement,

unemployed, inactive, and immigrants.

In the EU’s labor market, the diver-

gence continues between the turnover

rate of new skills and knowledge

requirements and the system’s capacity

to follow with an adequate, up-to-date

supply. This is reflected by a lower

growth of the EU-15’s gross domestic

product (GDP), especially during the

period of 1995–2001 (Table V), that

is attributed to better adaptation of the

U.S. labor market to the technological

evolution and skill matching.

Outlook for Employment

Employment projections are mainly

based on the scenario of business-as-

usual, which could be false as artificial

intelligence and increasing productivity-

per-worker could profoundly change

the current situation. In addition, due

to the general aging of the population,

it is expected that social economy5—

activities in the non-profit sector or

initiated activities with a clear social

Table V. Growth of Real GDP in EU-15,Japan, and U.S.13

1975– 1985– 1990– 1995– 1985 1990 1995 2001

EU-15 2.3 3.3 1.4 2.4Japan 3.8 4.9 1.4 1.1U.S. 3.4 3.2 2.4 3.6

dimension—will undergo important

development in the near future.

SUSTAINABLE

DEVELOPMENT

In the 1940s, the French writer Saint-

Exupéry stated “We don’t inherit the

earth from our parents, we borrow it from

our children.” Similarly, the Brundtland

Commission (1987) defined sustainable

development as “development thatmeets the needs of the present without

compromising the ability of future

generations to meet their own needs.”14

The idea that the management of natural

resources and the environment should

be consistent with the preservation of its

reproductive capacity has become, along

with the promotion of economic and

social progress, one of the fundamental

objectives of the EU as expressed in the

Treaty of the European Union.

In the June 2001 Gothenburg summit,

EU leaders endorsed, as a response to theEU’s public opinion demand, a strategy

for sustainable development based on

three pillars relating to economic, social,

and environmental development. The

integration of the three pillars into a

single strategy was designed to ensure

that in the longer-term, economic growth,

social protection, and environmental

quality would all be developed in a

harmonious balance.

On the other hand, the legal status

of nature is increasingly considered as

the common heritage of a nation or of

humanity as a whole. It includes not

only a set of saleable objects to which a

money value may be attributed, but also

a set of symbolic values contributing to

the common definition of group identity

and group memory and which, in this

sense, is unsaleable. The idea of heritage

is, therefore, a dialectical concept: as

capital it needs to be conserved and

protected. Insofar as it refers to the

interest on this capital, heritage may be

managed with a view to consumption.19

This concept is out of reach of the

market short view, as it is impossible to

price non-renewable resources.

However, development is sustainable

when it is economically efficient,

politically democratic and pluralistic,

socially equitable, and environmentally

sound.20 With respect to sustainable

development, the past 50 years of

Europe’s history can be split in two

different eras of policy making. From

1960 to 1975, old, often inefficient,

highly polluting industrial plants were

closed. This was not only efficient

for cleaning up the environment, but also

assisted an ongoing structural change

of European economy.15 The socio-

economic impact of these measures

was important and painful for mono-

industry regions such as Lorraine in

France and Saareland in Germany.

The next 25 years saw environment

policy-makers concentrating on more

complex problems. However, the impact

of environmental regulations on employ-

ment and loss of competitiveness

appears to have been small. Moreover,

a whole new sector took off during

this period. The environment industry

provides technology and services in

air-pollution control, water treatment,

waste management, noise and vibration

control, soil remediation, etc. The

annual turnover of the EU’s enterprisesin this sector is close to 100 million euros

and its share exceeds 30% of the global

market. This sector created directly and

indirectly some 1.5 million jobs.

Some advanced corporations have

also found ways to obtain a competitive

advantage by introducing environmental

considerations into their decision-

making.15 They also composed innova-

tive associations such as the World

Business Council for Sustainable

Development to consolidate their posi-

tion. One example of this strategicthinking, turning products into services,

is interesting because it seems to have

been driven more by the market than

by policy making. An example of this

concept is “painting of cars” instead of

“paint for cars.” In a recent agreement

between the car manufacturer, Ford

U.K., and DuPont, the car-painting

operations were outsourced to DuPont,

which sells “integrated coating services”




rather than liters of paint. The product-

into-service concept has been shown to

increase resource productivity by up to a

factor of ten. The increased productivity

eco-efficiency (output/environmental

pressure such as eco-efficiency =

output/emissions) results from signifi-

cant reductions in raw material costs

and/or a significant reduction in waste-

disposal costs. This is because a paint

seller wants to sell more paint, whereasa car painter tends to minimize the

amount of paint used per car.

Material and Energy Use

The EU’s economy is moving toward

its dematerialization and decarboniza-

tion through policy measures and

enterprise modernization. The total

material requirement (TMR) in the

EU-15 is about 50 t/capita (1997). The

TMR of the United States is 88 t/capita

(1994) that of Japan is 42 t/capita

(1994).21,22 From 1980 to 1997, the direct

material input (DMI) of the EU-15

grew only by 8%, and since 1989, the

level has been rather constant. The DMI

measures the input of used materials

into the economy (i.e., all materials that

are of economic value and are used in

production and consumption activities).

This led to a relative decoupling of

GDP from DMI. On the other hand,

from 1980 to 1997, direct material

productivity of EU-15 had increased by

about 30%, as shown by Table VI andFigure 2. This confirms the progression

of the de-coupling of resource use

from economic growth of the EU-15

through significantly improved resource

efficiency, dematerialization, and

consequently, waste decrease.22

On the other hand, Table VII shows the

evolution of the reallocation of energy

sources within the EU-15 between

1985 and 1998. It is clear that the

EU’s economy, as in all industrialized

countries, depends largely on non-

renewable fossil energy. However, one

may note the increase in shares of natural

gas, nuclear energy, and renewable

sources of energy and the decrease in

shares of lignite and coal. As couldbe expected, the greenhouse emissions

decrease, also.

Figure 3 shows the evolution of

production, energy inputs, and eco-

efficiency between 1985 and 1999 in the

EU-15. During this period, in spite of

increasing production, the energy input

is stable or slightly decreasing.

Since the 1970s, due to the higher

dependency of EU-15 on energy imports

as compared to the United States, the

eco-efficiency of the manufacturing

sector of EU-15 is systematically higher

than that of the United States (Figure

4), thus leading to lower emissions

of greenhouse gases and to a higher

efficiency of energy use, as shown by

Figure 5.

Water Use

Water resources in EU-15 are

unevenly distributed both in space and

time. They are important for human,

Table VI. EU’s Consumption of Materials, 1980–1997 (base 1980 = 100)23

Item/Year 1980 1985 1990 1997

Material consumption per inhabitant 100 100 104 102Material consumption tonnes 100 101 106 108Material efficiency (GDP [euros] per kg) 100 107 119 131

agriculture, and industrial activities

as well as for the ecosystem and,

consequently, biodiversity.

During the last 50 years, water use

has grown fourfold due to such factors

as population growth, higher consump-tion levels, agricultural and industrial

development, and recreational use

expansion. This causes wetland losses

and supply shortages in some places.

Moreover, water resources in Europe

are under increasing pressure due to

the bioaccumulation of toxic chemicals

generated by the industrial and agri-

culture sectors, the emerging signals

of global warming, the more or less

persistent drought, etc.21 This leads to an

imbalance of water supply and demand

in terms of quantity and quality.

For these reasons and since the 1980s,

the EU issued the following directives:

• 98/83/EC on the quality of drink-

ing water intended for human

consumption, establishing some

50 parameters essential for heath

and environment and imposing an

obligation to inform the consumer

on water quality.

• 91/271/EEC and 98/15/EC con-

Table VII. Evolution of the Pattern of EU’sEnergy Consumption23

Item 1985 1998

Petroleum and petroleum 42 42 productsNatural gas 16 22Lignite and derivatives 8 3Nuclear energy 12 15Renewable energy 5 6Coal and solid derivatives 17 12

P e r c e n t a g e

140

130

120

110

100

90

Figure 2. The eco-efficiency of EU man-ufacturing industrywith respect to mate-

rial inputs (1985 =100).

1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997

Eco-efficiency

Material Inputs

Production

P e r c e n t a g e

140

130

120

110

100

901985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999

Eco-efficiency

Energy Inputs

Production

Figure 3. The eco-efficiency of EU man-ufacturing industry(1985 = 100).




processing and not the whole material

flow in the United States. Considering

this difference, it seems that a NAS

value of 22% for the whole material flow

in EU-15 is an acceptable one.

The total current generation of wastes

by the EU is estimated at 2.2 billion

tonnes.3 An approximate repartition is

shown in Figure 6. One may underline

that the mining wastes share is the

largest because of massive importation

of precious metal ores (Au, Pt, Pd, Rh,Ir, Os, Ru). One may underline that

about 260,000 tonnes of platinum ore

are processed to produce one tonne of

this metal. Figure 6 also indicates that

1.9% of the total generated wastes are

considered hazardous.

Industrial wastes rose by an average

of 2.5% per year between 1990 and

1995.21 The EU is using a variety

of approaches to tackle the growing

volume of solid wastes, including waste

prevention, reuse, recycling, clean

technologies, incineration, pretreatment,and landfill disposal. The targets are

to reduce waste to final disposal by

20% of 2000 levels by 2010 and by

50% by 2050.22

On the other hand, the concept of

“product responsibility” (introduced

in the 1994 directive on packaging

and packaging waste) requires the

manufacturers to get involved in manag-

ing their products at the end-of-life

Table IX. Material Flow Balance of EU-15,1996, Million Tonnes22

Material Input Imports 1,291 Abiotic raw materials used: 8,607 Minerals 3,055 Fossil fuels 757 Unused abiotic raw materials 4,795 Extraction 3,552 Excavation 1,243 Biotic raw materials 2,132 Air 5,392

Erosion 1,104 Total input 18,526Material Output Waste disposal 5,228 Landfilled waste 434 Landfill and mine dumping 4,795 Emissions to air 4,116 CO

2 3,978

NOx, SO

2, CO, and others 138

Emissions of water from materials 3,715 Exports 366 Erosion 1,104 Dissipative use of products 264 and dissipative losses Emissions to water 12 Total output 14,806 Net additions to stock 3,720TOTAL 18,526

cycle. This concept will be extended to

other industrial sectors and will probably

decrease the ultimate waste volume.

Figure 7 groups the repartition of

methods of treatment of hazardous waste.

Clearly, landfilling and incineration are

the most common methods.25 However,

with the implementation of the European

Council directive on landfilling of

waste, landfilling will be regulated and

restricted in the near future. For instance,the 1997 proposal for a directive on the

landfilling of waste states that charges

for landfilling would be required to

reflect the costs involved in setting up

and operating the site, and the estimated

costs of closure and aftercare of the

site for a period of at least 50 years.21

Consequently, the cost of waste preven-

tion could be cheaper than that of waste

disposal and, thus, incite the enterprises

to redesign their process and/or products

as well as the recycling or the treatment

of their wastes.

Air Pollution

Table X shows the evolution of

specific gases emissions between 1980

and 1998 in quantities and per capita.

With the exception of carbon dioxide

emissions, which increased slightly

with respect to 1985 levels, all other

emissions have declined by more than

20%. The most spectacular emission

drop is that of SO2 (67%). However, part

of the reduction of acidifying emissions

could be explained by the shift of the

non-ferrous metal extraction sector from

primary to secondary metal production

and/or to the delocalization of primary

metal production.

An analysis of the data of Table

IX indicates that waste disposal and air

emissions total more than 50% of the total

material input. As described previously,

efforts concerning the decarbonization

and dematerialization of the economy

of the EU decreased the emissions level

to less than that of 1990. However, these

emissions are still important. In 1996,

about 4.1 billion tonnes were emitted

to the atmosphere, making it one of

Table X. Evolution of Toxic Gases Emissions in the EU-1516

1985 1988 1990 1992 1995 1996 1997 1998

VOC* (1,000 t) 15,357 15,375 15,149 14,143 12,819 12,254 11,915 11,684VOC (kg/capita) 43 43 42 39 34 33 32 31CO (1,000 t) 51,119 51,015 49,982 46,021 48,694 39,426 37,748 36,850CO (kg/capita) 143 141 137 125 131 106 101 98CO

2 (1,000,000 t) — — 3,320 3,267 3,260 3,336 3,278 3,327

CO2 (t/capita) — — 9.1 8.9 8.8 9.0 8.8 8.9

SO2 (1,000 t) 19,371 17,756 16,314 13,528 10,292 8,854 7,970 7,894

SO2 (kg/capita) 54 49 45 37 28 24 21 21

NOx (1,000 t) 13,233 13,635 13,301 12,889 11,537 11,332 10,828 10,621

NOx (kg/capita) 37 38 37 35 31 30 29 28

* VOC = volatile organic compounds

Agriculture26%

Hazardous1.9%

Others6.2%

Municipal12.5%

Industry25.2%

Mining28.3%

Figure 6. The estimated repartition ofwastes generated in the EU-15.

Figure 7. The treat-ment and disposalof hazardous wasteby method in Europe(mid-1990s).25

P e r c e n t a g e

40

30

20

10

0Physico/chemical

TreatmentIncineration Recovery

OperationsLandfill Other

Treatment




the largest global waste deposits of our

planet. This will affect the health of

the population, lead to exhaustion of

non-renewable resources, amplify the

greenhouse effect, and, thus, jeopardize

long-term sustainable development.

The authors of this paper suggest that

air pollution may be the most urgent

problem that our planet is facing. This is

because air is simply a vital support for

mankind. Implications of air pollutionare global and could jeopardize life itself

on the blue planet. Moreover, it is clear

that long-term economic growth cannot

be sustained in such conditions.

Outlook for Sustainability

The EU is moving toward waste

prevention, followed by recycling, waste

recovery and incineration, and finally,

only as a last resort, land filling. It favors

low-energy, waste-free manufacturing.

Environmental-protection expenditures

are increasing and environmental goals

are beginning to be integrated into

industrial decision-making. Some of the

new business concepts and initiatives or

policy measures made by governments

and institutions to meet environmental

goals are turning products into services,

inverse manufacturing, remanufactur-

ing, eco-design, life cycle approaches,

dematerialization, greening of products

and services, and integrated product

policies. The main objective of these

initiatives is to increase the efficiencyof the energy and material input, to

minimize the volume and the impact of

waste streams, and to extend the lifetime

of a product or service. Such concepts

will probably change the manufacturing

sector and the way of life toward a more

sustainable society.

Finally, it may be useful to note that

the cost of achieving the Kyoto objectives

for the EU-15 has been estimated to be

between 0.2% and 1.5% of the GDP,

depending on effort distribution from the

time of scale-up to 2010.3

References

1. Géry Coomans, Europe’s Changing DemographyConstraints and Bottlenecks, Series No. 08, EUR 18967EN (Seville, Spain: Institute for Prospective TechnologicalStudies ‘IPTS’, June 1999), www.jrc.es.2. R. Scase, Demographic and Social Trends IssuePaper: Mosaic Living, Series No. 07, EUR 18969 EN(Seville, Spain: Institute for Prospective TechnologicalStudies ‘IPTS’, September 1999), www.jrc.es .3. G. Fahrenkrog and L. Delgado, Financing Social

Protection and a Sustainable Environment, SeriesNo. 16, EUR 19036 EN (Seville, Spain: Institute forProspective Technological Studies ‘IPTS’, December1999), www.jrc.es .4. J. P. Gavigan, M. Otti tsch, and S. Mahroum, Towardsa Learning Europe , Series No. 14, EUR 19034 EN(Seville, Spain: Institute for Prospective TechnologicalStudies ‘IPTS’, December 1999), www.jrc.es .5. J.P Gavigan, M. Ottitsch, and C. Greaves,Demographic and Social Trends Panel Report, SeriesNo. 02, EUR 18729 EN (Seville, Spain: Institutefor Prospective Technological Studies ‘IPTS’, April1999), www.jrc.es .6. e-Learning, Designing Tomorrow’s Education,

COM(2000) 318 Final (Brussels, Commission of theEuropean Communities, 2000).7. K. Ducatel and J.-C. Burgelman, Employment Map, Series No.13 , EUR 19033 EN (Seville, Spain: Institutefor Prospective Technological Studies ‘IPTS’, December1999), www.jrc.es .8. Science and Society: Action Plan, COM (2001)714 final (Brussels, Commission of the EuropeanCommunities, 2001).9.Europeans, Science and Technology: Eurobarometer55.2 (December 2001), www.cordis.lu .10. D. Mercer, The Future of Education in Europe until2010, Series No. 06, EUR 18968 EN (Seville, Spain:Institute for Prospective Technological Studies ‘IPTS’,

OVERALL OUTLOOK

Education, demography, employment, and technology are important factors that shapethe upcoming aging industrial society. For the next decade, it will be a real challengeto supply the labor market with sufficient workers with the appropriate skills as thelabor force shifts from a 6.4 million surplus between 1995 and 2005 to a 2.1 millionshortage between 2005 and 2015. Although the labor force can be expanded to includeless traditional workers, such solutions will always have a limited impact. For example,increasing the number of women in the labor force may lead to a lower birth rate or willnecessitate extending nursery services that will absorb a part of the labor force. In addition to the quantitative threat of a dwindling work force, industries mustcontend with the qualitative issue of the need to retrain 80% of workers whose jobswill be destroyed or radically modified due to technological evolution. Thus, large-scaledeployment of LLL will be required to upgrade the skills of older workers and trainthe young ones. Consequently, the need to teach the teachers who are going to performthe LLL is one of the most urgent and difficult tasks. If not anticipated, this could be afirst-rank inhibiting factor for growth and competitiveness. Let us keep in mind that ifthe builders of cathedrals had been hampered by their social and economic conditions,none of the 80 cathedrals built between Poland and Portugal during the fifteenth centurywould exist. It is the will of people and their determination that make things happenand change the course of history. As for education, the EU-15 has an adequate classical educational system that hostsabout 85 million students. Clearly, this system should switch from a static model, based onan assumption of lifetime employment, to a dynamic one to provide life-long employability.In other words, the educational system should shift from its classical teaching of studentsto teaching ‘learning how to learn,’ thus insuring a long-term intellectual investment thatcan be of help for adults facing rapid technological evolution. On one hand, it is importantto underline that “caring employment” is expected to have the largest growth in new jobs

that are not always of high skill. On the other hand, the shift from manufacturing to servicestends to accentuate the decline of lower-skilled workers. As a result of the needs for LLL and Training the Teachers, the education sector of theEU-15 could provide the largest economic activity within the next decade.

The sustainability of the economy of EU-15 has improved as signs of the decouplingof the GDP from the direct material and energy input have been revealed by a decrease ofgreenhouse emissions. However, the level of gaseous emissions is still significant.

About 78% of the total material input in EU-15, 18.5 billion tonnes, is convertedinto wastes. The amount of air emissions (CO

2, CO, SO

2, NO

x) is about 4.12 billion

tonnes and that of erosion and water from materials is 1.1 million tonnes and 3.72million tonnes, respectively.

As the EU moves toward waste prevention, environmental goals are beginning to beintegrated in the decision-making within government’s institution and enterprises.A more sustainable society will develop as new business concepts and initiativesas well as policy measures extend the lifetime of products and services, increasethe efficiency of the energy and material input, and minimize the volume and theimpact of waste streams, etc.

Finally, the 1960s vision of General de Gaulle, former French president, of a Europeextending from the Atlantic Ocean to the Ural Mountains seems to be nearing reality.Before the end of this decade, the enlargement of the EU-15 to EU-28 will probably becompleted by means of a historically unique and peaceful process based on voluntaryagreements between autonomous governments. The enlargement of the EU-15 to Centraland East European countries is a historical event that could be compared to the MarshallPlan dedicated to Western Europe in the 1940s. Unified Europe, with about 500 millionpeople, will represent the largest common market in the world. This is a unique chancefor Europe’s diversification in a culture associated with hope for peace, stability, and thewelfare of the entire European population. However, the enlargement of and continuingcohesion within the EU cannot be accomplished without costs and efforts from the newmember states and the EU during two or three decades so as to catch up the socialand economic levels of EU-15.



June 1999), www.jrc.es .11. J. Isaac and H. Béjean, Hachette, Histoire del’Antiquité à 1939 (Paris, Hachette, 1950), p. 546.12. Les chiffres cles de l’éducation en Europe, EU’spress release No. 24/2000 (24 February 2000).13. 2002 European Competitiveness Report, CstaffWorking Paper [COM(2002) 262 Final] (Brussels,Commission of the European Communities, 2002).14. P. Sørup and T. Gameson, Natural Resources andthe Environment Panel Report, EUR 18970 EN (Seville,Spain: Institute for Prospective Technological Studies‘IPTS’, June 1999), www.jrc.es .15. P. Vellinga, T.E. Downing, and T. Karacostas, Climate

Change and Extreme Events, Summary final reportof project No. EV-CT94-0391 (Brussels, Commissionof the European Communities, December 1995),www.cordis.lu .16. Annuaire, Eurostat 2002, Le guide statistique del’Europe (1990–2000) (Luxembourg: Office for OfficialPublications of the European Communities, 2002),http://Europa.eu.int/comm/eurostat .17. “Key Figures of European Education,” Eurostat, News Release No. 24/2000 (Luxembourg: Office forOfficial Publications of the European Communities,24 February 2000).18.Eurostat, News Release No. 57/2001 (Luxembourg:Office for Official Publications of the EuropeanCommunities, 28 May 2001).19. Consequences of the Introduction of EcologicalPerspectives in Law, EV5V-CT92-0140, Summary

Final Report (Brussels, Commission of the EuropeanCommunities, 1994), www.cordis.lu .20. Integrating Environment and Sustainable Develop- ment into Economic and Development Co-operationPolicy ‘Elements of a Comprehensive Policy’, Com(2000)264 final (Brussels, Commission of the EuropeanCommunities, 8 May 2000), www.cordis.lu .21. P. Sorup and T. Jameson, editors, Natural Resources

and the Environment Panel Report, Series No.05, EUR 18970 EN (Seville, Spain: Institute forProspective Technological Studies ‘IPTS’, June 1999),www.jrc.es .22. S. Bringezu and H. Schütz, “Material Use Indicatorsfor the European Union 1980–1997,”Eurostat, Theme 2Economy and Finance (Luxembourg: Office for OfficialPublication of the European Communities, 2001),http://europa.eu.int .23. M. Ronconi, “Environnement et Energie,” Eurostat,Theme 8 (Luxembourg: Office for Official Publicationsof the European Communities, 2002).24. J.H. Ausubel and H. E. Sladovich, editors,Technology

and Environment (Washington, D.C.: National AcademyPress, 1989).25. “Waste Generated in Europe” (Data 1985–1997),Eurostat, Theme 8 (Luxembourg: Office for OfficialPublications of the European Communities, 2002).

I. Gaballah is with the Mineral Processing andEnvironmental Engineering team; LaboratoireEnvironnement et Minéralurgie, Centre Nationalde la Recherche Scientifique, École NationaleSupérieure de Géologie, and Institut NationalPolytechnique de Lorraine. A. Dufourg is with

Lycée Hen ri Poincaré. D. Tondeur is with Laboratoire des Sciences de Génie Chimique,Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique,École Nationale Supérieuredes Industries

Chimiques, and Institut National Polytechniquede Lorraine.

For more information, contact I. Gaballah, ÉcoleNationale Supérieure de Géologie, rue du Doyen M.Roubault, BP 40, 54501 Vandœuvre Cedex, France;e-mail [email protected].

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