120108130843_4_fifa_presentation

April 11-13, 2011

Cairo Marriott Hotel, Egypt

Australian Fertilizers Prospects ad Issues

Mr. Nick Drew Executive Manager, FIFA

Australia

5/2/2011

1

AustraliaNick Drew

Fertilizer Industry Federation of Australia

Executive Manager



5/2/2011

2

Size and Value 2002-2010

• 4 to 6 Mt, Av 5.1 MtUrea 1 to 1 3 Mt Av 1 2Mt– Urea 1 to 1.3 Mt, Av 1.2Mt

– MAP/DAP 1 to 1.5 Mt, Av 1.3Mt

– Single Super 0.5 to 1.3 Mt, Av 1.0Mt

• ~$3 billion sales

• >$15 billion effect on agricultural


$15 billion effect on agricultural production

• >$40 billion contribution to Australian economy

Seasonal Demand


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3

FIFA and Public Policy

• All manufacturers, bulk importers and major distributors are membersmajor distributors are members.

• A number of significant public policy issues with potential to disrupt the industry.

• Early positive involvement of the industry will lead to improved outcomes and


pforewarning.

Environment

• N and P in Water

• QLD WA Coastal Plain• QLD, WA Coastal Plain

• Many other areas

• Greenhouse emissions

• Abatement and sequestration credits for agriculture Carbon Farming


agriculture – Carbon Farming

• Emissions Trading

• NOx 16% of agricultural emissions

5/2/2011

4

Security - Contaminants


Quarantine

• No organic contamination

• No treatment options for finished product• No treatment options for finished product

• Protocols developed to remove risk at source– Engineering, procedures, sampling, to AQIS

approval


pp

– Third party annual audit, including AQIS audit every three years

• Risk status 1 (low) to 3 (high)

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5

Total Tonnage by Risk Level

90%

100%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Multiple

Processing

Level 3

Level 2

Level 1


0%

10%

20%

30%

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

• Asean Bintulu

• KAFCO

Champions

• KAFCO

• SABIC

• PIC

• GPIC

M i Ri i (T )


• Mosaic, Riverview (Tampa)

• Profertil

• QAFCO

5/2/2011

6

Supply

• Phosphate RockMorocco– Morocco

– Togo

– China

• MAP/DAP– Australia (42%)


( )

– USA

– Morocco

– China

Supply

• Urea– Australia (18% of total)Australia (18% of total)

– Qatar

– Saudi Arabia

– Kuwait

– Bahrain

– Bangladesh


– Malaysia

– Argentina

– China

5/2/2011

7

Supply

• PotashUSA– USA

– Canada

– Russia

– Jordan

– Germany


– Israel

Trends?

1 000

1,200

400

600

800

1,000

t 00

0's

N P K


0

200

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

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8

Farm vol. Nutrient vol.

1 800

Fertilizer vs. Farm Production Volume

1 000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

0t /

Vo

lum

e In

dex NPK VI


600

800

1,000

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

N+

P+

K 0

00

Crop Area Growth

1.8

2

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

Crop Area

Cattle No.

Sheep No


0

0.2

0.4

1970

1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

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9

Potential for Growth(FAO 2003)


Rainfall


5/2/2011

10

Crop Regions Rainfall(ABARES 2010)


East V West(ABARES 2010)


5/2/2011

11

Current Situation - Agronomic

• Water storages fullReturn of cotton rice and other irrigated– Return of cotton, rice and other irrigated crops.

• Soil profiles full– Confidence for large winter crop planting

(Eastern Australia)


– WA dry and dependent on planting rainfall

• Continuing productivity growth– GM and Precision Agriculture

Current Situation - Economic

• 2010 Winter crop production up 22% to 43Mt 43Mt – WA down

– Weather damage

• Eastern State confidence recovers

• Summer crop area 2011 up 67% to 1.5M


Summer crop area 2011 up 67% to 1.5M Ha

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12

Australia - Prospects

• Global trader

• Modern flexible agriculture• Modern flexible agriculture

• Steady productivity growth

• Capacity to respond

• Fast response to economic signals

F tili k d t i t f d ti


• Fertilizer a key determinant of production levels – and up to 30% of crop costs

• Seasonal factors critical

Key Economic Factors

• Cereal prices – also pulses and canola

• Fertilizer prices (Up to 30% of grain• Fertilizer prices (Up to 30% of grain production costs)

• Longer term recovery in animal numbers if prices remain high


• Forecast?– Volatility seems certain – Australia responds

to international prices for grain and fertilizer

5/2/2011

13

Australian New Production

• Legend - North QLD 72Mt @17% P2O5

• Minemakers Wonarah NT 1 258Mt @• Minemakers – Wonarah NT 1,258Mt @ 12% P2O5

• Perdaman - Collie Urea 2Mt pa 2014

• Latrobe Fertilisers – Urea 1.5Mt pa


Opportunities

• FIFA MembershipGPIC– GPIC

– QAFCO

• Australian Fertilizer Industry Conference 2013

• The Fertilizer Newsletter


The Fertilizer Newsletter

5/2/2011

14

Thank You

www.fifa.asn.au

[email protected]


+61 411 410 903

120108130843_4_fifa_presentation

Documents

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mt urea

fifa australia

mt single super

treatment options

environment n

agricultural production

risk level90