110615 tb scenario building

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June 2011

TECHNICAL BRIEF

SCENARIO BUILDING


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SCENARIO BUILDING

Technical Brief Scenario Building

Contents

1. Objective ........................................................................................................................... 32. Introduction to scenario building ........................................................................................ 33. Key principles .................................................................................................................... 44. Scenarios approaches ...................................................................................................... 55. How to proceed ................................................................................................................. 56. References........................................................................................................................ 8ANNEX I The different types of scenarios (Choularton, 2007) .................................................. 8ANNEX II Recommended templates for phase 1 and 2 of needs assessment ........................ 11


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1. Objective

This document on scenario building provides guidance on how to develop a scenario, including astep-by-step approach. This brief document can be used to guide scenario exercise planning, bothbefore or during an emergency, and can be used by practitioners and policy makers alike.

2. Introduction to scenario building

A scenario is a description of situations that could occur; a set of informed assumptions about asituation that may require humanitarian action (Choularton, 2007). It is also describes as anaccount or synopsis of a possible course of events that could occur, which forms the basis forplanning assumptions (IASC, 2006).

Scenarios indicate alternative ways in which the situation might evolve, based on:1. Current humanitarian situation (situation analysis);2. Assumptions about possible future shocks and opportunities, taking into account the type of

emergency and its volatility;

3. Peoples resilience and vulnerability.4. In-country capacity to respond

Scenarios are based on specific, informed assumptions about future events and their effects.These assumptions not only support the understanding of the current conditions, they also allowfor the estimation of future disaster outcomes. In addition, a clear description of key assumptionsfacilitates both the explanation of risk analysis to colleagues and partners and the process ofupdating scenarios as new information becomes available.


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Identify assumptions underlying anticipated needs and related operations

Enhance adaptability and design of detailed assessment

Influence monitoring systems

Scenario building can take place as part of disaster preparedness (contingency planning) or duringan emergency, to prepare for the possible evolution of a crisis. When used within the framework ofa needs assessment, scenarios are used to build and plan for possible future humanitariansituations and needs. They are particularly useful in the first days of a disaster (phase 1 ofassessment) to identify potential future situations and to create situation awareness amongst keystakeholders.

3. Key principles

Scenario development can be done either on an individual basis or in a group. Always includesupport of selected key informants/experts, who have knowledge of the country context andthe current crisis impact.

Build scenarios around specific planning objectives. Planners must consciously define whatwill be useful for their purposes, and what will not.

Understand and agree that you need different levels of details at different time.

Base scenarios on, as a minimum, experience, lesson learnt, secondary information anddirect observation.

Requires the identification of the known unknowns


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4. Scenarios approaches

The first approach draws on expert opinion: scenarios are developed by achieving consensusamong relevant, available experts. This method is common when there is no previous in-countryexamples and/or when scenarios need to be developed for complex situations, such as conflicts,which are difficult to model.

The second approach (historical analogy) uses the history and lesson learnt from past crises todevelop scenarios for future ones. Documents on previous crises such as assessment reports,lessons learnt and evaluations are reviewed. Afterwards, differences between the current crisis

and previous crises are defined, including for instance population demographics and urbanisation.These two analyses are then combined and scenarios are developed. In some cases, this methodcan be as simple as taking an old assessment report and building a scenario from it.

The third method of scenario building is field assessment. During these assessments, baselineinformation is collected, key informants are interviewed and scenarios are discussed with theaffected population and their representant. This method allows assessment teams to gain broadinput quickly, especially when little information is available and informs scenarios and plans with

knowledge of conditions in the field.

The fourth method of building scenarios is projection against a baseline. Here, key assumptionsabout the impact of a crisis are made, and then tested against baseline data. The result is aprojection that can often be quantified. This technique is most commonly used with demographicbaselines, for example to model population displacement based on census data disaggregated byethnic group. It is also common in the food security field, in the shape of the Household EconomyApproach1.

Some of those approach can be used together depending on time and resources available


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long they may remain valid. Define the area and population of interest. Range the timeframe yourscenarios should fit in, for instance from 3-4 months for conflict situations and 4-8 months for

sudden onset disasters.

It is generally recommended to develop, at minimum, two scenarios (most likelyand worst case).For complex emergencies, 3 to 5 smaller scenarios are recommended to capture the alternativeevolution of the, often dynamic, situation.

Step 3: Identification of risks and opportunities

The first stage is to examine the findings of the step 1 review to determine which are the mostimportant factors that will decide the nature of the future environment. These factors aresometimes called variables or drivers (for change) and may have a positive impact (cease fire,end of the winter, water recession, etc.) or a rather negative impact (continuation of conflict,aftershocks, epidemics, etc.). They are therefore referred to as opportunities orrisks that mayinfluence the way the situation will evolve in the future.

Each risk and opportunity is then organized according to the likelihood of occurrence versus thelikely importance of its impact or consequences on the affected population. The following table canbe useful to organize and prioritize the identified factors.

Only the mostrelevant factorsshould be in-cluded. Sce-narios are atechnique for

presenting

LikelihoodImpact/consequences

Insignificant Minor Moderate Important Major

Almost certain

Likely

Possible

Unlikely


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your assumptions. Assumptions are a set of statement that are assumed to be true and from

which a conclusion can be drawn.

Rule out any "impossible" factor (e.g. Magnitude 10 earthquake, NATO intervention, full

compensation for victims, etc.).

For the sake of simplicity, it is important to focus only on a limited number of assumptions. Inpractice, the challenge is to identify from two to four assumption containersor mini scenariosinto which the most important factors can be sensibly fitted.

Step 4: Scenario development

On the basis of the selected assumptions, scenarios can be developed. The scenarios shouldreflect the likelihood of certain events occurring and their potential impact on the humanitariansituation and the affected population, as well as their priority needs and the necessary measures tobe taken to get prepared in case the scenario unfold.

Each scenario must clearly state what is the likelihood of occurrence (probability level) and the

foreseen impact severity. Give also each scenario a descriptive (and catchy) name to ease laterreference.

While developing scenarios, take the following issues into account:

How long will the event last?

What trends, conditions or event may confirm or mitigate scenario projections?

What is the probability and the impact level associated to the scenario

The recommended content of the scenarios sho ld be as follo ed


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Howare they affected (e.g. displaced in inadequate shelter, access to

basic services, losses of assets)

Location (e.g. in public building in urban areas, in camp settlement,etc)

Duration of the emergency situation. Time period during which

assistance may be required

Operational constraints Access, security, logistics

Priority needs

Most affected groups

Most affected areas

Sectors requiring immediate assistance

Key interventions (including intervention/assessment preparednessmeasures)

Depending on the circumstances (sudden onset, slow onset, complex emergencies, etc.), othertemplates for the scenario building may be more appropriate. Annex 1 provides differentapproaches on scenarios content while Annex 2 provides some templates for Phase 1 and 2 ofneeds assessment reports.

6 R f


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Best No drought Normal seasonal floodEq measuring 4,5 on the RichterScale causing some minor damage

in rural areas

Middle/mostlikely

Moderate droughtaffecting one part ofthe country

Major flood affecting100,000 people

Eq measuring 6,5 on the RichterScale causing some major damagein rural areas, including somemedium-sized towns

WorstSevere droughtaffecting large areasof the country

Extreme flood affecting1,000,000 people in thecapital city

Eq measuring 8,5 on the RichterScale with an epicentre in a majorcity causing catastrophic damage

Another approach to scenario-building is the augmentat ionorstep scenario. This describes thepotential escalation of a crisis in the scenario, and the corresponding response requirements.

This type of scenario is often used in planning for refugee and displacement crises where, as thecrisis progresses, the number of people affected progressively increases, along with the scale oftheir humanitarian need. In turn, the response capacity required of humanitarian organisations alsoincreases.

Augmentation or step scenarios try to set levels at which additional action and response capacity isrequired. In some situations, the thresholds established by these scenarios are tied to resources.When the threshold is reached, the resources are released.

Scenario Number of refugees Contingency plan

Scenario 1

5 000

Provide registration and protection to refugees

sta ing ith host families


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An estimated 40% of the population are affected Displacement begins

Day 7

Conditions for affected population: First signs of food scarcity Frustration Migration

Effect on affected households: Loss of shelter, displacement Loss of crops, livestock, asset and property

1/3 of the population non accessible by road Government requires external assistance

Day 14

Conditions of affected population: 10% of affected population migrated from the affected districts to neighbouring

districts Remaining affected population placed in temporary shelters Sanitary conditions slightly improved due to emergency measures 60% receive some food aid unacceptable by international standards; no food for

people with special food needs (e.g. infants) 25% remain unattended in remote or difficult-to-reach areas

Daily coordination meetings at state level including government, army, INGOs,

sometimes UNICEF; Practical coordination is not effective Water level in the flooded territory remains unchanged Army works on repair of dams and bridges. Security situation tense; deployment of police begins

Each of those scenario type present different advantages and may be use for different context or

it ti t d h ft


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ANNEX II Recommended templates for phase 1 and 2 of needs assessment

The first example provides template for Mini scenarios. It may be used for conflict situation wherenumerous risk factors can draw multiple alternative situation that needs to be reflected and

planned upon.

The second example provides template for an extended Most likely/middle and worst case

scenario. It may be used for slow or sudden onset emergency when the degree to which the

situation may change in the future is not too diverse and when response planning needs to be

more detailed.

Both template are designed to fit into a one page format (A4).


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Name of the scenario

Probability level X

Impact level X

Assumptions

Context

Operationalconstraints

Priorityneeds

Name of the scenarioProbability level X

Impact level X

Assumptions

Context


Priorityneeds


Impact level X

Assumptions

Context


Priorityneeds


Impact level X

Assumptions

Context


Priorityneeds


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Most likely/middlescenario

Probability level x

Impact level x

Core assumptions & impact

Assumptions (risks, opportunities and triggering factors)

General impact and effects of the crisis (estimates of affected population, and displacementpatterns, price rising, market disruption, destruction of crops, etc..)

Affected areas

Response capacity and gap analysis

Population at risk & anticipated duration of the emergency

Affected groups (e.g. IDPs is a population at risk in case of further flooding) and theircharacteristics (numbers, demographics, specific vulnerable groups, copying mechanisms)

How are they affected (e.g. displaced in inadequate shelter, access to basic services,

losses of assets)

Location (e.g. in public building in urban areas, in camp settlement, etc)

Duration of the emergency situation. Time period during which assistance may berequired

Operational constraints

Security, access, communication

Priority needs


Most affected areas


Key interventions (including intervention/assessment preparedness measures)


Worst case scenarioProbability level x

Impact level x

Core assumptions & impact

Assumptions (risks, opportunities and triggering factors)

General impact and effects of the crisis (estimates of affected population, and displacementpatterns, price rising, market disruption, destruction of crops, etc..)

Affected areas

Response capacity and gap analysis

Population at risk & anticipated duration of the emergency

Affected groups (e.g. IDPs is a population at risk in case of further flooding) and theircharacteristics (numbers, demographics, specific vulnerable groups, copying mechanisms)

How are they affected (e.g. displaced in inadequate shelter, access to basic services,

losses of assets)

Location (e.g. in public building in urban areas, in camp settlement, etc)

Duration of the emergency situation. Time period during which assistance may berequired

Operational constraints

Security, access, communication

Priority needs


Most affected areas


Key interventions (including intervention/assessment preparedness measures)