11 miller

What Success Looks Like

Chris Miller President

Illuminomics

2

iCanada Conference Building an Intelligent Nation

Assessing Intelligent Communities

New Weighs of Seeing

Chris Miller CEO Illuminomics

Nov 16th 2011

Illuminomics | PO Box 10754, Savannah, GA 31412 | 912-484-7192 | www.illuminomics.com

3

A Move Beyond the Basics

•  Measuring the new economy with old tools? •  New sources and lots of them •  Moving beyond quantity and measuring quality •  Taking a holistic approach - its not just about jobs •  Keepin’ it real - what counts, what doesn’t •  Digging deep •  Ways to measure

•  Innovative approaches •  Anecdotal measures •  What does success look like?


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The city of Valdosta is located in south-central Georgia and because of regional and historic factors, has seen relatively low average wages and slow economic growth. As with many rural areas and major parts of the U.S., they have seen a once strong manufacturing base steadily erode over time, dramatically altering the regional economy and putting downward pressure on overall average wages. These job losses were somewhat offset by rapid growth in the retail sector as Valdosta became a major shopping destination for traffic on the I-85 corridor as well as the region. However, because of the historically low wages paid by the retail sector, it did little to staunch the continued decline of overall average wages within the community.

The Valdosta Story Context

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In 2004 Valdosta-Lowndes Chamber of Commerce, headed by Myrna Ballard, engaged illuminomics to help craft an innovative, strategic framework that would increase average wages in the region by the targeted growth and creation of higher-wage, knowledge-based and creative jobs. Now, after 5 years of steady progress in creating and enhancing the economic, social and urban environmental factors that can accelerate the growth and creation of “smart jobs”, Valdosta has arrived at point where the direct impact of these programs can be easily seen and measured by solid, authoritative and quantifiable data. This data, from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and the U.S. Department of Labor, shows that not only has this targeted strategic effort slowed down the decades long decline of the regional average wage, it has quite literally, turned it around.

The Valdosta Story Targeting Smart Sectors

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As you will see in the next few slides, during the period that the Chamber has run its TBEC program (Targeted Business Expansion Council) Valdosta has gone from a declining economic position, relative to the U.S., Georgia and its peer group of similar cities, to a complete reversal with Valdosta now outperforming the U.S., the state of Georgia, and 5 of its 6 peer group cities in “TBEC-sector” job growth, average wage growth, as well as wage cost of housing declines (% of monthly salary devoted to housing). The purpose of this brief summary and the attached graphs is to show that by enhancing the economic, social, urban and environmental factors attractive to high-wage job workers, with a clear focus, innovative programs, a high degree of collaboration and a steady effort, that a community can take control of its own economic fate and turn-around even the toughest case of historic declines into becoming an “intelligent city” capable of competing in the modern global economy. This is a “proof-of-the-pudding” success story. It isn’t quick, it isn’t easy, but in a day and age of very tough economic head-winds and significant national job losses, it should be encouraging to know that the path to becoming an intelligent city works; and in doing so, it is possible to turn around the economy of a city and improve the quality of life for its residents.

The Valdosta Story The Results

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Valdosta-Lowndes 2011 Economic Survey prepared by Illuminomics for Valdosta-Lowndes Chamber of Commerce

Regional Wage and Employment Trends A Comparative Analysis 1990-2010

The following analysis was performed by Illuminomics with the support of the Valdosta-Lowndes Chamber of Commerce.

All data contained in this analysis is taken directly from the most authoritative local, state and nationally recognized sources, using the most currently available data sets.

To ensure data accuracy and integrity, no multipliers were used in any calculations and all non-confidential data can be independently verified from public sources.

Chris Miller CEO Illuminomics

Myrna Ballard

President Chamber of Commerce

Tara Nichols Vice President Chamber of Commerce

Nov 11th 2011 v4.5


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NAICS TBEC Sector Description Information Technology

511-- Publishing industries (including software) 512-- Motion picture and sound recording industries 515-- Broadcasting, except Internet 516-- Internet publishing and broadcasting 517-- Telecommunications 518-- Data processing, hosting and related services 519-- Other information services

Environmental Technology

541-- Professional, technical & design services 551-- Management of companies and enterprises

Medical Services & Support (listed separately as “Health Care”)

621-- Ambulatory health care services (physicians, dentists, labs, etc) 622-- Hospitals

Targeted Business Expansion Sectors

** North American Industrial Classification System (NAICS) codes provide a 1 to 5 digit classification number to describe various types of economic activity. TBEC and TBEC+ are composites of the above 3 digit NAICS codes.

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Valdosta MSA, 2010

SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics - Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages - www.bls.gov/data

Economic Sector Size by Jobs

31.1%

14.6%14.2%12.8%

11.3%

7.5%5.0% 4.1% 4.1% 3.0% 2.8% 2.2% 2.1% 1.4% 0.4%

15.8%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Local G

ovtTB

EC

Retail T

rade

Leisu

re &

Hosp

.

State

Govt

Health C

are

Manufacturin

g

Admin Se

rvices

Constructio

n

Federa

l Govt

Trans.

& W'housin

g

Ag & Fo

restr

y

Wholesale Tr

ade

Finance &

Insu

r.

Real Esta

te

Educatio

n

% o

f tot

al jo

bs

Sector Size by Percent of Total Jobs

10

Valdosta MSA, 2010


Economic Sector Size by Wages

34.5%

15.4%13.7%

10.9%9.7%

5.7% 5.6% 5.2% 5.1% 4.1% 2.9% 2.8% 2.0% 1.4% 0.3%

19.4%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

Local G

ovtTB

EC

State

Govt

Health C

are

Retail T

rade

Manufacturin

g

Leisu

re &

Hosp

.

Federa

l Govt

Constructio

n

Trans.

& W'housin

g

Admin Se

rvices

Finance &

Insu

r.

Wholesale Tr

ade

Ag & Fo

restr

y

Real esta

te

Educatio

n

% o

f tot

al w

ages

Sector Size by Percent of Total Wages

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Valdosta MSA, 2010


Economic Sector Size by Wages vs. Jobs

10.9%9.7%

5.7% 5.6% 5.2% 5.1%4.1%

2.9% 2.8%1.4%

0.3%

3.0%

19.4%

13.7%

2.0%

34.5%

15.4%

31.1%

2.1%

5.0%

7.5%

14.2%

4.1%

15.8%

2.2% 2.8%

12.8%11.3%

14.6%

4.1%

0.4%1.4%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Local G

ovtTB

EC

State

Govt

Health C

are

Retail T

rade

Manufacturin

g

Leisu

re &

Hosp

.

Federa

l Govt

Constructio

n

Trans.

& W'housin

g

Admin Se

rvices

Finance &

Insu

r.

Wholesale Tr

ade

Ag & Fo

restr

y

Real esta

te

Educatio

n% o

f tot

al jo

bs v

s. to

tal w

ages

Total Wages

Total Jobs

Sector Size by Percent of Wages vs. Jobs

12

Valdosta MSA, 2010


Average Wages by Sector

70,629

41,980

41,880

39,448

38,295

37,910

37,381

37,115

36,474

33,724

29,486

25,264

22,730

22,348

20,988

12,197

51,567

$0

$20,000

$40,000

$60,000

$80,000

Utilitie

s

Trans.

& W'housin

g

Federa

l Govt

Finance &

Insu

r.

Manufa

cturin

g

Wholesa

le Trade

Constructio

nTB

EC

Health C

are

State

Govt

Local G

ovt

Real Esta

te

Admin Se

rvices

Retail t

rade

Ag & Fo

restr

y

Educatio

n

Leisu

re &

Hosp

.

aver

age

annu

al s

alar

y

Valdosta avg wage $30,416

Georgia avg wage $42,859

Average Annual Salary by Sector

13

Valdosta MSA, 2001-2010


Short Term Economic Change

15.5%

6.4%5.7% 5.3% 5.2% 5.1%

-4.5%-3.0%

-0.9%

10.5%

0.2%-0.5%

0.7%

4.6%

2.9%

-3.3%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

Loca

l Gov

tFe

dera

l Gov

tSt

ate

Gov

tRe

al E

stat

eA

dmin

Ser

vice

sLe

isure

& H

osp.

Heal

th C

are

TBEC

Educ

atio

nW

hole

sale

Trad

eFin

ance

& In

sur.

Reta

il Tr

ade

Ag

& Fo

rest

ryTr

ans.

& W

'hou

sing

Con

stru

ctio

nM

anuf

actu

ring

annu

al %

cha

nge

in n

umbe

r of j

obs

Valdosta 9 year annualized job growth +0.4%

Average Annual Percent Job Growth by Sector

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Short vs. Long Term Economic Change

8.7%

5.6%4.3%

0.6%

3.9%

1.3%

-0.5%

-3.0%

1.4%1.1%

6.3%

0.2%

5.4% 5.8%4.1%

12.5%

11.0%

-2.4%

6.4%5.7% 5.3% 5.2%

5.1%

15.5%

10.5%

4.6%

2.9%

0.7% 0.2%

-4.5%-3.3%

-0.9%

-4%

0%

4%

8%

12%

16%

Loc

al G

ovt

Fed

era

l Go

vt

Sta

te G

ovt

Rea

l Est

ate

Ad

min

Serv

ice

sLe

isur

e &

Ho

sp.

He

alth

Ca

re

TBEC

Educ

atio

n

Who

lesa

leTr

ad

eFi

nanc

e &

Insu

r.

Reta

il Tr

ad

e

Ag

& F

ore

stry

Tra

ns. &

W'h

ous

ing

Co

nstru

ctio

n

Ma

nufa

ctu

ring

ann

ual %

cha

nge

in n

umb

er o

f job

s

1992-2010 2001-2010overall average annual growth

2.1%

0.4%

Average Annual Percent Job Growth by Sector1992-2010 vs. 2001-2010

15

various MSA’s, 2001-2010


TBEC Sector Size and Growth Comparisons

15.8%

11.6%14.1%

19.6%

23.2%

4.6%3.3%

6.0%

1.4% 1.7%0.4% 0.7%

2.9%

-0.7% -0.6%-2%

4%

10%

16%

22%

Valdosta

Athens-Cla

rke

Warn

er-Robbins

AlbanyRom

e

annu

aliz

ed %

cha

nge

in e

mpl

oym

ent

TBEC Sector Share of All Jobs (2010)TBEC Change in Number of Jobs (2001-2010)All Industies Job Growth 2001-2010 (annualized)

TBEC Sector % Share & Annualized Change in Jobs

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TBEC Growth Trend Comparisons ST

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

cum

ula

tive

% g

row

th o

f job

s

All Jobs (+3.9%)avg. salary: $30,416

TBEC Jobs (+41.4%)avg. salary: $37,381

All Jobs except TBEC (-0.6%)

Cumulative Job Growth in TBEC and All Industries

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TBEC Sector Trend Breakdown

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

num

ber o

f TBE

C+

jobs

Technical and Professional (+52..3%) avg. salary $43,375

Healthcare Services (+82.4%)

Management of Companies (-55.2%) avg. salary: $47,853

Job Growth Comparison Between TBEC Sectors

Information Services (+103%) avg. salary:

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Long Term Avg Wage Comparisons US

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

% o

f U.S

. ave

rage

wag

e

Georgia (-2.3%)

Real Avg. Wages as % of U.S. Avg Wage

Valdosta (-6.4%)

Warner-Robbins (+2.6%)

Albany (-6.0%)

Rome (-7.9%)Athens (-9.3%)

U.S. average wage = 100%

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Short Term Avg Wage Comparisons US

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

% o

f U.S

. ave

rage

wag

e

Real Avg. Wages as % of U.S. Avg Wage

Georgia (-5.3%)

Albany (-0.9%)

Athens (-1.6%)

Warner-Robbins (+4.3%)

Valdosta (+0.9%)

Rome (-3.0%)

U.S. average wage = 100%

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Percent of Salary Spent on Housing US

80%

90%

100%

110%

120%

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

% a

bove

or b

elow

US

avg

Wage Cost of Homeownership as a % of U.S.

USA ( = to 100%)

Valdosta (-3.3%)

Athens (+1.7%)

Georgia (+2.8%)

Warner-Robbins (-2.3%)Albany (-1.2%)

Rome (+11.1%)

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About the Data In This Analysis Illuminomics used data for its analysis from the most authoritative sources: The Georgia Department of Labor, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the U.S. Department of Labor and the U.S. Census Bureau. To obtain private disaggregate wage and employment data, Illuminomics and the Valdosta-Lowndes Chamber signed a confidentiality agreement with the Georgia Department of Labor to protect individual company data concerning employment and wages, especially in circumstances when only a few companies reside in a specific sector. Therefore, there are times when the public data and the privately aggregated data differ. In those circumstances, the privately aggregated data contained in this report is the more accurate. Moreover, the Georgia Department of Labor constantly revises its historical data sets. Those revisions are not always released to the public. Illuminomics, however, has access to those revisions and has incorporated them into this analysis. In some cases that may cause public and privately aggregated data to differ ever so slightly, with this analysis often more accurate than what would be available to the general public. Finally, care should be taken when comparing two data sets representing the same information. Those data sets may differ in locality (MSA vs. County), time period (month vs. quarter); interval time-length and industry control (private vs. public sector). Chris Miller [email protected]

A Final Word


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Quantity Growth or Quality Impact?


DAIMLER-CHYSLER TCCi

total jobs created 3000 199

total project expenditures $320,000,000 $590,351

total annual wages created $164,805,000 $11,094,135

project cost per job created $106,666 $2,967

wages generated/$ spent $0.51 $18.79

wages generated/acre $96,944 $9,984,721

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What’s Really Going On?


Chatham County, 1990-2005The Two Most Significant 15 Year Employment Trends

10,000

11,000

12,000

13,000

14,000

15,000

16,000

17,000

18,000

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

Jobs

Manufacturing

Leisure andHospitality

Manufacturing

Leisure &Hospitality

Average Annual Salary : $13,993

Average Annual Salary : $55,986

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Digging a Little Deeper


Average Wage DistributionSavannah MSA, 2003

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

$240-$320

$400-$480

$560-$640

$720-$800

$880-$960

$1040-$1120

$1200-$1280

$1360-$1440

$1520-$1600

$1680-$1760

$1840-$1920

$2000-$4000

Average Weekly Wage

Perc

ent

of J

obs

Savannah

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New Tools For a New Economy


Who Do Ya Love? ……….SAVANNAH! How the world views various places from the lens of Internet search engines.

Go to Google, type in “I Love <any city>”, then substitute “hate” for “love”.

What you get is a love/hate ratio. What you get is a number for how many people felt strongly enough about their like/dislike opinions to put it somewhere on a web page.

These numbers are what they are and no one can really manipulate them. The simple fact is: People are passionate about Savannah!

love/hate ratio: 47.1 "i love savannah" +ga: 1,130 "i hate savannah" +ga: 24 love/hate ratio: 32.5 "i love asheville" +nc: 586 "i hate asheville" +nc: 18 love/hate ratio: 16.9 "i love greenville" +sc: 104 "i hate greenville" +sc: 10 love/hate ratio: 16.9 "i love charleston" +sc: 473 "i hate charleston" +sc: 28

love/hate ratio: 11.0 "i love charlotte" +nc: 1050 "i hate charlotte" +nc: 95 love/hate ratio: 5.6 "i love raleigh" +nc: 284 "i hate raleigh" +nc: 51 love/hate ratio: 3.2 "i love jacksonville" +fl: 264 "i hate jacksonville" +fl: 82 love/hate ratio: 1.9 "i love atlanta" +ga: 908 "i hate atlanta" +ga: 483

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•  studies & reports •  wikipedia •  ground proofing •  google search •  surveys

•  interviews •  govt info - fed- census, DOL, BLS, FBI - state

- county - city - econ dev

So Much Data, So Little Mining


•  independent ratings/rankings

•  newspaper/magazine articles

•  yellow pages

•  blogs

•  twitter posts

•  web sites

•  ranking

•  private data sources - Chamber - CVB - realtors - colleges

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inviting sidewalks

outside tables

pedestrians

tree canopy

meeting places

public space

interesting architecture

wifi networks

bicycles

cleanliness

dominant features

How Cool is Cool Surveying the Urban Landscape


visible transition between urban/suburb/rural street activity density distance to water tree canopy park benches

public restrooms

"cool spots"

coffee shops

live music venues

interesting layout

size of historic area auto orientation Way-finding mixed use mixed income parks good lighting utility placement architecture charm critical mass cleanliness / litter smell

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Summing It All Up

Intelligent cities need to be measured in intelligent ways There is a wealth of new data out there

Look and think beyond the obvious Focus on quality, not just quantity

Take a holistic perspective Benchmark against others

Consider the trends Think long-term

Keep it real

Thank you! Chris Miller Illuminomics
