www.csis.org |

Iraq: Meeting the Challenges

of 2010

Anthony H. Cordesman

Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy

Rev: March 10, 2010

1800 K Street, NW

Suite 400

Washington, DC 20006

Phone: 1.202.775.3270

Fax: 1.202.775.3199

Email:

acordesman@gmail.com

Web:

www.csis.org/burke/reports

The Changing Patterns of

Violence: 2003-2009

Weekly Security Incidents: January 3,

2004 - August 28, 2009

Source: USCENTCOM 9.28.09

Iraq - IED Incident Trends – Coalition Force (U)

Incident counts based on preliminary data for June 2009

Civilian Deaths, January 2006 - August 2009

Source: USCENTCOM 9.28.09

Iraqi Security Patterns: 2004-2009

SIGIR, Quarterly Report, January 30, 2010, p. .42

Iraqi Security Patterns: 2004-2009

SIGIR, Quarterly Report, January 30, 2010, p. .42

8

Al Qa'ida in Iraq -- Winter 2006 vs.

Fall 2008

Source: General David H. Petraeus, “Iraq Update,” October 7, 2008

Key Areas of Shi’ite Extremist Activity:

Winter 2007 vs. Fall 2008

Source: General David H. Petraeus, “Iraq Update,” October 7, 2008

Key Insurgent, JAM, and Iranian Activity: February 2009

Location of

Sunni and

Shi’ite

Insurgent

Capability:

August

2009

Source: USCENTCOM 9.28.09

Violence at End-2009-Early 2010

Iraqi Security Patterns: 10/21/09 to 1/13/10

SIGIR, Quarterly Report, January 30, 2010, p. .43

Insurgent, JAM, and Iranian Activity: Late 2009

SIGIR, Quarterly Report, January 30, 2010, p.5

Source: Senior Iraqi official

Attacks Per Month By Type in Baghdad: 2009

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

IED

Mortar Landed

Car Bomb Explosion

Bicycle bomb

Assasination

Suicide Bomber

Katyusha Rocket

Body Found

hand gernade

magneticIED

RPG

Iraqi Casualties By Type in Baghdad: 2009

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Wounded Civilian

Dead Civilian

Iraqi Security Force Wounded

Iraqi Security Force Dead

Body Found

Source: Senior Iraqi official

Levels of National Unity

and the Election

Sectarian, Ethnic, and Tribal Challenges

19

Sectarian Challenges

•Iraq: 60-65% Shi’a, 32-37% Sunni, 3% Christian

or Other

Ethnic Challenges

•Iraq: Arab 75-80%, Kurdish 15-20%, Turcoman,

Assyrian & Other 3%

Tribal Challenges

•Iraq: Confederations, broad area, heavily

urbanized.

Iraqi

Ethnic

Divisions

Source: USCENTCOM 9.28.09

Ethno-Sectarian Deaths, January 2006

- August 2009

Source: USCENTCOM 9.28.09

Ethno-Sectarian Violence: 2006 -2009

Source: USCENTCOM 9.28.09

Who Has Been the Target: 2007-2009

SIGIR, Quarterly Report, January 30, 2010, p. .43

Iraqi Views of Security and Travel:

July 2009

Source: USCENTCOM 9.28.09

Iraq: National Unity in Late-2009

SIGIR, Quarterly Report, January 30, 2010, p. .73

Iraq-Kurd

Disputed

Territory

Source: USCENTCOM 9.28.09

Iraq: “The Kurdish Issue”

SIGIR, Quarterly Report, January 30, 2010, p. .67

Iraq: The IDP Challenge

Source: Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction (SIGIR), Quarterly Report to the United States Congress,

(Public Law 108-106, as amended, and Public Law 95-452), October 30, 2009. Pp 80-81.

Key Rivals in the Election

SIGIR, Quarterly Report, January 30, 2010, p.8

Iraq: Forming a New Government

Action Time Frame ( in Days)

Phase Cumulative

Special needs voting and Election Day 3 3

Tally of results and preliminary results 4-7 7-10

Complaints and adjudications: Provisional Results 30 37

Appeals and Certification of Results 15 52

First Session of Council of Republic; negotiations for selection

of Speaker (maxium of 30 days after certification) 21 73

Speaker elected 30 103

Council of the Republic elects President and other members of

the Presidential Council 30 133

Prime Minister nominated (maximum of 15 days) 15 148

Prime Minister picks Council of Ministers. (maximum of 30 days) 30 178

Prime Minister and Council of Ministers sworn in. 30 208

(Presidential Council must designate new Prime Minister in

US Withdrawal and Transition

US Withdrawal and Reorganization

SIGIR, Quarterly Report, January 30, 2010, p. .34

US Aid 2009-2010

SIGIR, Quarterly Report, January 30, 2010, p. .21

US PRT Changes: 2009-2011

SIGIR, Quarterly Report, January 30, 2010, p. .36

As of 12/31/2009 OPA has completed

the planning process for

consolidating the remaining 6 ePRTs

into the main PRTs in Baghdad and

Anbar. This will leave 15 main PRT

locations and 1 Regional

Reconstruction Team (RRT), along

with smaller satellite locations

established in coordination with the

local U.S. military commander, to

focus on capacity-building activities

and projects in the immediate vicinity

of these locations.

PRT satellite locations remain in

operation only if military sup-port is

available and only if programs,

projects, or engagements deemed

vital to U.S. interests remain in

progress.

The current PRT Operation Plan

anticipates maintaining the 15 fully

functioning PRTs and 1 RRT into the

summer of 2011. The U.S. civilian

presence beyond that time is still

under review.

US Withdrawal and ISF

Development

Iraqi Security Forces: 2004-2009

SIGIR, Quarterly Report, January 30, 2010, p. .42

As of December 2009, ISF force strength in the MOI, MOD, and Iraqi National

Counter-Terrorism Force reportedly totaled 660,334 assigned personnel. The

MOD has approved a force structure that calls for 14 Iraqi Army (IA) divisions; a

Navy of 3,800 personnel, including two Marine battalions; and an Air Force of

6,000 personnel.138 The MOD has also begun to develop and plan for units

across a range of disciplines: engineering, bomb disposal, medical evacuation,

signal, intelligence, surveil- lance, and reconnaissance

Iraqi Views of ISF and Stability: July 2009

Source: USCENTCOM 9.28.09

US ISFF Funding

SIGIR, Quarterly Report, January 30, 2010, p. .24

US ISFF Funding By Ministry

SIGIR, Quarterly Report, January 30, 2010, p. .25

US Equipment Draw Down and Transfer

SIGIR, Quarterly Report, January 30, 2010, p. .32

US Changes in Police Training

SIGIR, Quarterly Report, January 30, 2010, p. .35

Iraqi Budgets and How Much

Hinges on Oil

The Truth About Iraq’s Oil Wealth: Poverty on the Surface; Potential Underground

CIA World Factbook, January 2010

$0 $20,000 $40,000 $60,000 $80,000 $100,000 $120,000

Bahrain

Iran

Iraq

Kuwait

Oman

Qatar

Saudi Arabia

Somalia

UAE

Yemen

GDP Per CapitaRanks 162nd in the

World in Per Capita

Income: One of

World’s Poorest

Countries

Education and

Health systems in

collapse

2 million IDPs

outside Iraq --

including much of

elite

Iraq’s Role in the Regional Youth Explosion

CIA World Factbook, January 2010

Population in

Thousands: 1960-

2050

0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 80000 90000

Bahrain

Iran

Iraq

Kuwait

Oman

Qatar

Saudi Arabia

Somalia

UAE

Yemen

2050

2025

2009

1975

1950

2050 980 81,490 56,316 6,383 5,402 1,116 49,830 26,025 8,019 45,781

2025 868 76,779 40,387 4,179 3,981 938 35,680 15,148 7,063 32,650

2009 729 66,429 28,946 2,693 2,910 833 28,687 9,832 4,798 22,858

1975 259 33,265 11,118 1,007 920 169 7,205 4,128 523 7,934

1950 115 16,357 5,163 145 489 25 3,860 2,438 72 4,777

Bahrain Iran Iraq Kuwait Oman QatarSaudi

ArabiaSomalia UAE Yemen

The Broader Demographic Pressure

45

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Mil l ions 5.2 6.89 9.4 13.2 18.1 19.6 22.7 26.1 28.9 33.3 40.4

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 1995 2000 2005 2009 2015 2025

- 38.8% are 0-14 ye ars of age

- 313,000 male s reach 18 each ye ar.

- Une mployme nt 18-30%

- 154th in pe r capita income vs . 2nd for

Qatar, 5th for Kuwait, 58th for Saudi

Source: US Census Bureau, IDB, 28-7-09

Iraqi Budgets: 2007-2009

SIGIR, Quarterly Report, January 30, 2010, p.19

Iraqi Funding Sources: 2003-End 2009

SIGIR, Quarterly Report, January 30, 2010, p.10

As of December 31, 2009, nearly $141.49 billion had been made available for the relief and reconstruction of Iraq. These funds came from

three main sources:36

•Iraqi funds that were overseen by the Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA) and Iraqi capital budgets—$71.19 billion

•International pledges of assistance from non-U.S. sources—$17.01 billion

•U.S. appropriations—$53.30 billion CPA Era

Iraqi World Price of Oil ($US/per barrel) 2003-2010

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1601

/3/2

00

3

7/3

/20

03

1/3

/20

04

7/3

/20

04

1/3

/20

05

7/3

/20

05

1/3

/20

06

7/3

/20

06

1/3

/20

07

7/3

/20

07

1/3

/20

08

7/3

/20

08

1/3

/20

09

7/3

/20

09

1/3

/20

10

Wo

rld

Pri

ce

of

Oil

($

US

pe

r b

arr

el)

Iraq: The Cost-Benefit of Oil

SIGIR, Quarterly Report, January 30, 2010, p. .77

Bidding for Oil by Field: 2009

SIGIR, Quarterly Report, January 30, 2010, p. .53

Bidding for Oil - Who Got What: 2009

SIGIR, Quarterly Report, January 30, 2010, p. .53

Projections of Possible Oil Revenues

SIGIR, Quarterly Report, January 30, 2010, p.10

Back Up Slides

54Source: Department of Defense. “Measuring Security and Stability in Iraq.” March, 2009. Pg. 25

Average Daily Attacks by Province,

June 1, 2009 - August 31, 2009

Source: USCENTCOM 9.28.09

High Profile Attacks (Bombings), May

2006 - August 2009

Source: USCENTCOM 9.28.09

Weapons Caches Found by Iraqi &

MNF-I forces), January 3, 2004 -

August 28, 2009

Source: USCENTCOM 9.28.09

ISF and MNF-I Military Deaths,

January 2006 - August 2009

Source: USCENTCOM 9.28.09