10 key trends to watch for 2014 from globaltrends.com
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When Moore’s Law was published, its model of exponential rates of change seemed unbelievable. Today it still guides the semiconductor sector. The accelerating global pace of change today is analogous to Moore’s law. Since the turn of the century, emerging markets have moved center stage, the digital revolution has arrived, social networks have become ubiquitous, a sharing economy has been born, scientific advances such as mapping the human genome have changed our lives, and the voice of the people has reinvented markets and overturned governments. For organizations and individuals the opportunities and challenges that a Moore’s Law of change offers are vast. Look for continued radical changes in retail and social networks and value chains being reconfigured as connectivity and technology redistribute industry. “Hubonomics” will shift how and where we operate and consume. The latest scientific advances will make the impossible, possible. Perhaps the biggest issue looking forward will be to understand and manage the contradictions these changes entail. So where should leaders look today? In our forthcoming Global Trends Report 2014, The Fieldbook (forthcoming), we highlight 10 trends that business leaders need to focus on today. Note: The Global Trends Report, The Fieldbook is a companion guide to The Global Trends Report 2013, which provide analysis, case studies, company examples and food for thought on these critical trends.TRANSCRIPT
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10 Key Trends to Watch for 2014
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10 Trends to Watch for 2014
1. From social everything to being smart socially
2. Information security: The genie is out of the bottle
3. Who needs shops anyway?
4. Redistributing the industrial revolution
5. Hubonomics: The new face of globalization
6. Sci-Fi is here: Making the impossible, possible
7. Growing pains: Transforming markets and generations
8. Panic versus disbelief: The resource gap grows, the global risks rise – but who is listening?
9. Fighting unemployability and unemployerability
10. Surviving in a bipolar world: From expecting consistency to embracing ambiguity
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1. From social everything to being smart socially
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Social technologies are everywhere, but these vast repositories of digital “stuff” bury the exceptional among the unimportant. It’s time to get socially smart.
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Users are moving to niche networks to bring back the community feel and intelligence to social interactions.
Think: Quora, Quibb, Path, Best of All Worlds, Doximity and GovLoop. Ask: What’s next after Facebook?
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Businesses need to get smarter about extracting and delivering value from big data because…
…companies with the most advanced big data analytics capabilities are: • Twice as likely to be in the top quartile
of financial performance within their industries.
• Five times as likely to make decisions much faster than market peers.
Source: Bain & Company
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For social networks, mobile is the great
leveller.
Which apps will get users attention?
1.22 1.47 1.73 1.97 2.18 2.37 2.55
23.7% 20.4% 18.0% 13.4% 10.8% 8.9% 7.5%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Social network users (billions) % changeSource:eMarketer
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2. Information security: The genie is out of the bottle
Thought your information was
safe? Think again!
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Privacy is only an illusion: Cyber-surveillance and data mining by public and private organizations is increasing – and don’t forget criminal networks and whistleblowers.
You are tracked
everywhere and by
everyone
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Newly built smart cities are protected and managed by mass surveillance BUT residents could be put at risk, if
stockpiles of personal data are hacked.
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Intelligence no longer belongs only to humans – deep learning might soon be here
are “playing” with technologies that will
understand the deeper meaning of users’ actions
and emotions on social networks.
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3. Who needs shops anyway?
Retailers are facing a digitally driven perfect storm.
Photo: Source=[http://www.flickr.com/photos/womeos/6026330194/ Eaton Centre] * Uploaded bySkeezix1000 |Date=2011-08-09 20:44, licensed under he Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 2.0 Generic license.
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Connectivity, rising consumer influence, time scarcity, mobile payments, and the internet of things, are changing where, when and how we shop...
By 2017 global mobile commerce transactions will exceed US$3.2 trillion, up from US$1.5 trillion in 2013. (Source: Juniper Research, Mediabistro)
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…if smart machines have not already
done the job.
Source: http://www.bornrich.com/self-cleaning-high-tech-fridge-of-the-future-in-the-works.html
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COMPANY AS A SERVICE
MOTIVATE A MARKETPLACE
Crowd created new goods
Corporation
Subscribe
Rental
Co-Own
Share goods Swap
Gift good
The Collaborative
Economy Value Chain
Redraw from Altimeter, via Web strategist.
Brand
In the emerging sharing
economy, experience
and sustainable
consumption are more important
than ownership.
People build
PROVIDE A PLATFORM
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The future of shops…
Source: Burberry, Regent Street flagship store, London, UK
Experiential spaces offering personalized service, e.g. Burberry
Integrated online and offline value propositions
Pop-up stores for immediacy and surprise
This image is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 2.0 Generic license. Author: Gilda from London, UK
92% of shoppers have more confidence in
information sought online versus anything from a
salesclerk or other source. (Source: Mediabistro)
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4. Redistributing the industrial revolution
Complex, global value chains are being redistributed by new
technologies, labor market shifts and connectivity.
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Small-scale manufacturing, including 3D is
moving production closer to markets
and enabling mass customization – while the maker movement goes
mainstream.
Photo: Author Kyle Pearce (www.diygenius.com) via Flickr; licensed for reuse under the Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 2.0 license.
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Rising labor costs in developing markets, high unemployment in developed markets, global access to online talent and knowledge, plus advances in robotics mean reshoring of
production to developed markets will increase.
7.6%
5.5%
6.2% 6.0%
2.9%
3.8%
7.2%
5.8% 5.9% 5.8%
2.9%
3.7%
5.8% 5.9% 5.4%
6.0%
3.0%
3.7%
Africa Asia Latin America Middle East North America Europe
2012 Average Increases 2013 Average Increases 2014 Average Increases
Global Average Salary Increases 2012-2014
Source: Aon
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5. Hubonomics: The new face of globalization
As production and consumption become more distributed, hubs will characterize
the next wave of “globalization.”
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Hubs will specialize to support the needs of growing regional trade, emerging city states, online communities of choice, and the next
generation of flexible workers and entrepreneurs.
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Underpinning these hubs will be global knowledge networks and new business and governance models based on hubonomics™,
that leverage global assets and hub strengths to deliver local value.
The Asia-Pacific Water Forum’s KnowledgeHubs are centers of excellence committed to improving water security in the Asia-Pacific region by promoting knowledge sharing and championing feasible solutions.
The World Bank’s South-South Knowledge Exchange connects countries to share knowledge to promote development, for example exporting India’s dairy “revolution” to help feed children in East Africa.
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6. Sci-Fi is here: Making the impossible possible
Scientific breakthroughs could change our lives,
work, bodies and intelligence.
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THINK
• Mind control and artificial intelligence • Shape-shifting materials • Self-organizing nanobots • Cyborgs and enhanced humans • Space exploration • High-speed, intelligent transportation
Advanced technology is redefining our world
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Thought control has already been tried on many levels…
• A HMS research team controlled a rat's tail.
• At UW one researcher sent a brain signal via the internet to control the hand motions of a fellow researcher.
• RAC’s “attention-powered car” is controlled by brainwaves.
• Ford, BMW, Fiat, Daimler, Volvo and Volkswagen are testing systems that take control of the e.g. steering wheel when risks are detected.
(Source: PSFK, BBC).
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Soon shape-shifting materials and self-organizing nanobots will repair what’s broken. Technology is moving off the desktop and on to our body
while Iron Man-style suits will give troops “superhuman strength.”
Think: 4D printing, swarmbots or M-blocks, Hyperloop, wearable technology Ask: How can my company tap into this extraordinary world of new technologies?
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7. Growing pains: Transforming markets and generations
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The golden years of extreme growth are over but the emerging markets growth engine is far from
dead…
HOWEVER,
the growing pains of these markets demand significant shifts in governance, financial systems, education and economic policies to get them back on an upward
track.
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The “I WANT MORE” generation with lots of disposable income to spend will most likely be the generation of
transformers that has the power to restore growth in emerging
markets.
26 34
12
30 38
64
2010 2025***
Emerging marketsDeveloped markets
World consumption, US$ trillion
***Estimate based on 2010 private-consumption share of GDP per country and GDP estimates for 2010 and 2025; assumes private consumption’s share o GDP will remain constant. Source: McKinsey
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8. Panic versus denial: The resource gap grows, the global risks rise –
but who is listening?
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The complex nexus of food, water, energy and climate change presents huge environmental and societal challenges – heating up the battle to access new
resources, from the Arctic to fracking.
EXPECT
More debate and calls for responsible capitalism.
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Explosive population and consumption growth will exacerbate water security challenges in Asia, leading
to potential geopolitical tensions and conflicts.
Source: Princeton
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Food security is a growing issue. In 2050 the world’s population could demand TWICE as many resources
as the planet can supply.
How can we get more food on the table?
Food hubs like…?
Cropmobster connects producers of edible but unsold
food with those needing it.
More vertical farming? Lab grown food?
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9. Fighting unemployability and unemployerability
Fighting unemployability is critical while also
fostering talent for the future.
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Companies are desperate for talented workers – yet unemployment rates remains high
Unemployed people in the U.S.: 7.3% Unfilled jobs in the U.S.: 3 million Unfilled manufacturing jobs in the U.S.: 200,000+ Caterpillar
attempted to hire 26 employees in the U.S. but nobody
applied!
It is time to rethink how to prepare talent for the future.
Ask: How your organization can move from
unemployability to helping to develop the skills of the
future?
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Governments, NGOs, businesses and other private institutions must rethink their role in
developing future talent.
Financial institution Barclays is working with UNICEF to help reduce youth unemployment through the Building Young Futures programme.
Computer maker Lenovo is partnering with leading Chinese universities to identify top talent that may have gone abroad to study.
The Indian government has launched the National Skill Development Corporation to fund training centers and liaise with industry.
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Employers must also focus on organizational unemployerability – not being able to attract and retain
desired talent – as new generations demand exciting and meaningful work where they can make an impact.
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Skills making workers and leaders successful today will not stay the same forever. New skills are required.
Want to stay on top of the game? • Social intelligence • Agile thinking • Leadership skills • Cross-cultural skills • Innovative, entrepreneurial mindset • Human-machine collaboration
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10. Surviving in a polarizing world: The contradictions of leadership
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The US is still a leading superpower but is struggling with a very dysfunctional
political system
… while a melting pot of cultures makes it difficult for the Eurozone to solve
economic, political and security issues.
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Companies of all shapes and sizes are playing a bigger role
in solving societal issues.
EXPECT
More companies to combine profit with purpose and
responsibility.
Companies such as Unilever, Tata, Royal DSM, Marks & Spencer and Toronto-Dominion Bank are already leading the way demonstrating it is an approach
making good business sense.
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The contradictions of leadership and life are increasing faster than our ability to reconcile the
often polarized perspectives and values each embodies.
Surviving in this world will demand stronger, responsible leadership comfortable with and
capable of embracing ambiguity and uncertainty, as opposed to expecting consistency and predictability.
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How will these trends impact your organization?
Are you ready?
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This presentation is adapted from the GT Briefing 10 Key Trends to Watch in 2014 and The Global Trends Report 2013: Towards a Distributed Future by Tracey Keys and Thomas Malnight. Electronic copies of the briefing and The Global Trends Report 2013 are available on www.globaltrends.com, and printed copies of The Global Trends Report 2013 can be found on Amazon.com and Amazon’s European sites. Don’t forget to register at www.globaltrends.com now to make sure you don’t miss our next monthly briefing (they are free)! About the Authors
Tracey Keys is Director of Strategy Dynamics Global Limited. Thomas Malnight is a professor of strategy and general management at the International Institute for Management Development (IMD), in Lausanne, Switzerland.
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