1 timber supply impacts of mountain pine beetle (mpb) in british columbia, canada western forest...
TRANSCRIPT
1
Timber Supply Impactsof Mountain Pine Beetle (MPB)
in British Columbia, Canada
Western Forest Economists
May 8th, 2007
2
Frequently asked questions
How long will the uplift last?
What will be left over afterwards?
What can we do?
3
Overview BC in a nutshell MPB in a nutshell Timber Supply impacts
4
BC in a nutshell 92% crown land Timber Supply Areas
volume based tenures Multiple licensees AAC set by Chief
forester and apportioned by Regional Manager
Tree farm licenses Area based tenure One licensee Uplift goes to licensee
Licensee harvesting stands have silviculture obligation
5
Forests for Tomorrow (FFT)
FFT objectives are to improve future timber supply and address risk to other forest values through the reestablishment of young forests on land that would otherwise remain under productive
Long term annual budget of $53.9 million
6
Mountain Pine Beetle
Forest Health Overview Description Classification
MPB Projections: Description Severity maps 2006 - 2015
Modelling timber impact: MPB analysis assumptions
7
Forest Health Overview
General strategic level survey
Fixed wing aircraft traveling at 70-80 knots from 1,500 – 3,000 ft
1:100,000 imagery
Forest health – not specific to MPB
8
Light
Moderate
Severe
FHOSeverity Classification
9
MoFR MPB Projections
Projected and calibrated to Forest Health Overview since 1999
Raster based stochastic modelling in SELES
Two 400X400 grids for each year: % pine affected by MPB %of stand that is pine
10
Natural versus Managed
Two growth and yield models used in timber supply review for BC TIPSY for managed ands VDYP for natural Harvested or treated stands are modelled as managed
Harvested stands are considered managed
Unharvested heavily infested stands are killed off and modelled as natural with 15 year regen delay
11
Shelf Life
Wood quality - Recent research shows a 2 year shelf life for saw logs
How long can licensees afford to harvest these stands? Depends on products, market conditions,
regulations etc
12
How long will the uplift last?
13
Shelf Life
MPB Spread
Har
vest
ed
No Harvest
Harvest Cap
FFT
Salvage years
MPB Affected Volume
14
What will be left afterwards?
15
Decades
MP
B A
ffec
ted
Vol
ume
Remaining Mature Volume
Har
vest
Lev
el (
m3 /
year
)
Long term harvest level
16
What can we do about it?
17
Sample Timber Supply
1,560,000990,000
2,840,000
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
0-5 25 45 65 85105 125 145 165 185 205 225 245
Year
Vol
ume
(m3/
yr)
Harvest Level Available Stock
18
Opportunity to make a difference
990,0001,560,000
1,440,0001,780,000
2,840,000
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
0-5 25 45 65 85105 125 145 165 185 205 225 245
Year
Vol
ume
(m3/
yr)
Basecase Harvest Level Most Probable FFT Scenario Harvest Level
19
Different Story
3,680,000 2,200,000
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
0-5 20 40 60 80 10
012
014
016
018
020
022
024
0
Year
Vol
um
e (m
3/yr
)
Basecase Harvest Level Available Stock
20
Thank You
Kelly Sherman.RPF
Branch Manager/Resource Analyst
Timberline Natural Resource Group
Kelowna British Columbia,Canada
Phone: 250-762-3191